2021 Super Bowl (post)

Chiefs 9-31 Bucs

Looking back in my previous post over my description of what I thought this game would be, I kinda got it right. Or at least I was right about the Bucs, but not so right about the Chiefs. 

The Chiefs just never got any offense going and we haven't seen that in ages. Deep into the 4th quarter, the Chiefs haven't moved the ball at all, Mahomes has been running for his life all night, I still expected them to score two TDs. That's what didn't happen, that's what we've been watching the Chiefs do for a while now and it just did not come together on this night. 

It really is kinda shocking that they couldn't figure out how to use Hardman or Pringle or LaVeon Bell (did he even play?) or Edwards-Helaire, they couldn't figure out how to get Hill loose for one big play. The Chiefs haven't shown that kind of ineptitude in a long time. That banged-up offensive line really stung them. By the 4th quarter Mahomes was looking for defenders rather than receivers, he struggled through, played like a champ but just couldn't get out of the mud he was running in. He looked like he was drunk by the end of the game. 

As for the Bucs, their D-line was excellent and those LBs were magnificent. Their front 7 gave an amazing performances against a great offense. Mahomes didn't have his usual sure-footedness and the Bucs took full advantage. They were after him all night. 

On the other side, Brady was Brady. The Bucs ran the ball well--really impressed with Fournette all through the playoffs, he had a great post-season (*)--and went with a rather old timey looking balanced offense to control the clock, eke out 1st downs and wear out the Chiefs D. (**) Brady is the GOAT-est. 

Bric-a-brac: The Chiefs calling timeouts before halftime was mystifying to me. What did they think they were gonna do if they got the ball back? They were better off running out the clock and getting the Bucs off the field and for them to think otherwise is...uh...inexplicable. 

For that matter, why wasn't the Punter ready to play? I get that he's only punted like, 8 times, all year or whatever, but this game is the final game, the only game that matters. You've got to be ready for all occurrences and that means pumping the P if need be. His shank was a godsend to the Bucs. 

I would've given the MVP to the Bucs D-line but that never happens in football. And even though Fournette, too, was great, the QB always gets the MVP, so I'm cool with Brady.  

This reminded me of the 2015 Championship: Ohio State suffocated Oregon. The game wasn't a blowout but in the 4th quarter the Ducks just gave up on even trying to move the ball. They were spent and that's how Chiefs looked. 

Early predictions. I'll take the Chiefs to be back next year. The Browns and Bills aren't going away but I think the Chiefs are better and will be better. We'll see about the Ravens, I can't tell if they're headed up or down. And the Pats won't suck, I guarantee it. Gonna be quite the QB carousel this off-season, I suspect the Colts (and maybe the Steelers) to be the best positioned to make a spicy pickup.

I guess the Bucs will be good, but like this year, they'll probably be spotty for 12 weeks and everyone will think they suck and then they'll try to turn it on down the stretch; might work, might not. I think the Rams will be good, the Packers will be the Packers, and I got a weird feeling the Cowboys will be good. And the Seahawks won't suck. We'll see how the QB carousel turns, feels like everyone else in the NFC will act like they need a new one.

Next season looks to feature a bunch of QBs in new places and of course rookies and 2nd year QBs (Burrow, Herbert, Tua) that keep football unpredictable. I'm ready for baseball now but I'll be ready for football when the time comes. 

(*) Hmmmm....can you see him a Patriots jersey next season?

(**) There was some complaint about all the defensive penalties on the Chiefs: hey, man, I thought the refs were letting a lot of grabbing go all through the playoffs (Bucs-Packers, for example, was particularly grabby in both defensive secondaries). So if the Chiefs have a complaint it is that the refs suddenly tightened up in the final game. I'm not saying the Chiefs didn't commit those penalties (although that one PI up the sideline where the defender fell down, I'm not sure there was any contact and it was certainly not a catchable ball), I'm saying they've been committing those penalties and not getting called (any Bills and Browns fan will tell ya). 

2021 Super Bowl

 Chiefs (-3) @ (*) Bucs (o/u 55.5). I thought that line would be down to -2 but still at a solid FG, 40 minutes before game time.

Tom Brady is the unquestioned GOAT. Brady has been to 14 final fours in 19 seasons. Dude...that's just...that's just stupid. That's Magic Johnson territory, Bill Russell territory, that's John Wooden and Vince Lombardi kinda shit. There are no NFL QB's that even come close to that. And he'll retire as the greatest in the playoffs and regular season, by far. 

Patrick Mahomes is the one dude that seems capable of catching him. That's part of what makes this matchup so compelling. I watch every Super Bowl but I don't look forward to them as much as I've been anticipating this one. This is a good match between the right teams. I thought it would be the Packers instead of the Bucs, but while the Packers pretty much stomped everyone they played this year, for some reason they just couldn't beat the Bucs. The Bucs have been getting better over the last 8 weeks or so, they're peaking at the right time, and they had the magic to dispatch Aaron Rodgers.

I think they can do that to Mahomes, too. The Chiefs are now 16-2 (16-1 with Mahomes) this season. That comes after winning the Super Bowl and a shit ton of games last year. so they're in Crimson Tide territory in the ridiculousness of their recent dominance. That said, for a dominant team they have to eke out victories in the 4th quarter an awful lot. That's not a bad thing, just that they're method of winning games tends to leave a lot of room for mistakes. 

The fact that the Chiefs don't win til the 4th quarter gives the Bucs a lot of room to put up some points. And I think they will. And I think the Bucs D-line will get to the makeshift unit the Chiefs have going tonight (their one clear weakness) and Mahomes will be bad scrambling more than good scrambling. Either Hill or Kelce will put up numbers but--unlike the Bills--I think the Bucs will shut down one or the other and minimize the damage. That pass rush will slow down the onslaught to give the Bucs a lead going into the 4th quater.

I think the game will still be fun deep in the 4th quarter but I think the Bucs will put up too much of a lead to come back from. I'll say Bucs 34-30 (Bucs and the over). 

That said, I can see the Chiefs doing the same thing to the Bucs. I can see the Chiefs pulling it out late, I can see the Bucs coming back and winning late. I can see either team winning close but what I don't see is a blowout. I think this one stays close throughout, should be a final possession kinda game. Ahhhhhh....that sounds good. 

(*) Literally.

2021 MLB Hall of Fame Voting

Newly enshrined: (none) 

Well since last year's festivities were postponed, I guess Jeter, Walker, Simmons and Mitchell will get their own day after all.

Maybe next year: Curt Shilling, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Scott Rolen, Omar Vizquel, Billy Wagner, Todd Helton, Gary Sheffield, Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent, Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, Andy Pettite, Mark Buehrle, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Tim Hudson

(I think they ought to be in) Curt Shilling, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, Andy Pettite, 

Yup....all the same dudes as last year.  And the year before. When are the baseball writers gonna do their jobs? Why do they spend so much time denigrating their own sport?  Barry Bonds is arguably the greatest player of all time, what is the point of a Hall of Fame that doesn't have him in it? Why are they starving the Hall of Fame? (*)

(I'm undecided) Todd Helton, Bobby Abreu, Tim Hudson

Again, same as last year. Helton was one of the best hitters in the game for most of his career, albeit in a hitter's park. That's gotta be worth something, right? 

Abreu had 8 seasons with 100 BBs, 100 Runs, 20 home runs; 9 season above .290 BA; 10 seasons of 100 RBI; 12 seasons with OBP above .390; 13 seasons with at least 20 SBs. But never in the top ten for MVP voting, when I remember him as much more feared at his peak. I dunno, close call but I think he deserves more support than others (*cough* Jeff Kent). 

Tim Hudson had seriously superior years and played for some really good teams. Had double digit W's in 15 of his first 16 seasons, made four all-star games, finished top-4 for Cy Young three times and won a World Series (2014 Giants). Starting pitchers just don't pile up numbers the way they used to. I can see Hudson being reevaluated as pitching stats steadily deflate. 

(I don't see Hall of Famers) Scott Rolen, Omar Vizquel, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent, Mark Buehrle, Torii Hunter

Rolen, Vizquel, Wagner, Buerhle were good solid players for a long time, guys you'd be more than happy for your team to get in free agency. But none of them ever struck me as all-time greats. 

Hunter and Jones both started off well but neither really blossomed into the stardom that seemed ahead of them. 

I'm still flabbergasted that Jeff Kent is on this list 8 years in--who is voting for this guy? I watched Jeff Kent's prime and he was never anywhere near as dangerous as Bobby Abreu and yet Abreu's is struggling to stay on the ballot. Why? What is the BBWAA's obsession with Jeff Kent? (He's the anti-Schilling, I suppose?)

10th and final ballot: (none)

One and done: Aramis Ramirez, LaTroy Hawkins, Barry Zito, AJ Burnett, Shane Victorino, Dan Haren, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Swisher

Yeah, I can't make much of an argument for any of these guys. Zito won a Cy Young and was a minor (at best) piece of a Series winner (2012 Giants), and Burnett was a good starter on a World Series winner (2009 Yankees), but that's about all I can say for any of this batch. 

The headliners for the 2022 ballot include Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz...so two more of the greatest ballers I ever saw that won't be going to the Hall of Fame?

(*) My real complaint: I didn't even like Sammy Sosa and honestly I'm not sure if Pettite truly was Hall-worthy--but we're never gonna get those discussions! When you make the argument solely about phony baloney morality jibba-jabba then we're not getting statistical analysis any more. We're not properly separating the wheat from the chaff. We're just leaving out guys that the writers don't like and that's stupid. Plain fuckin' stupid. 

Sports in 2020

2019-20 in Sport will be remembered as the Covid-19 year. Yeah, and 2020-21 will be, too. Hopefully, 2021-22 will not be but we'll see....

I took 2019-20 off from Sport. Oh, I still watched a ton of all kinda of Sport but giving it my deeper attention just didn't happen this year. It wouldn't be fair to completely blame Covid-19, I was already a little less into Sport than previous years. For example, in my to-do box from March are a post-Oscar wrap up I just never wrote, some Champions League takes that were already boring to me and some end of season NBA stuff that was less productive than usual. I don't expect my interest to remain steady. It will wax and wain and 2020 was already shaping up to be a less than stellar year. I can't help thinking a deep dive on stats and rosters at the moment just seems like wasted motion--or perhaps I'm missing the greatest statistical year of my life! I feel like until everything gets back to "normal" then nothing that happens is meaningful going forward. And the carry-over into 2021 is already giving me the blues.

But that's not true. 

That paragraph was unnecessarily dire. I'm still watching a ton of sport (NBA, Bundesliga, NFL, watched a lot more NCAA football than I expected to, tennis when I can find it, NHL every once in a while, been watching Caribbean baseball this week, looking forward to Champions League and still hoping we get some kind of NCAA tourney) and loving it, admiring it, being as fascinated by it as ever. I've lost my taste for the business side of it, but I'm confident it'll pass when the Covid stops hanging over everything. The games themselves are as good as ever. I'm impressed and I'm glad. 

Covid-19 stopped everything cold back in March when we learned the NBA was shutting the season down. And the shit really hit home when we got no March Madness. Then sports disappeared completely for three months or so and we obsessed over how it would return. It did return. The players played and the corporate suits did their best to get those games to the fans and it was pretty cool to see everyone doing what needed to be done to get back to normal. It wasn't "normal" though, so even though I appreciated its presence, what I watched wasn't normal. It was weird, it was a simulacrum of Sport. 

When the Covid first became a thing back in March, I figured it would take 18 months to get back to "normal". September 2021 felt like the time when things would settle in. Since I am a sports nerd that no longer goes to school, my sense of the calendar naturally revolves around sports. Fall means football and that seems like just the thing to settle the citizenry.

I was surprised by the return of the other sports in 2020 because in March I didn't think any of the sports except the NFL would get back on track. I didn't think MLB would be feasible without fans (they need the gate, man, they need to sell ten thousand Cokes every night to make that shit work), NBA and NHL bubbles seemed fanciful at best, and I wasn't sure we'd have college of any kind in the fall of 2020, much less college sports. 

I figured the NFL would be back because 1) those games make so damn much money, they pretty much have to be played; 2) when have we ever cared about the health of football players?; 3) because football is as popular (re: culturally necessary) as pretty much anything in American culture. People dropped everything to fight the virus, but football is on the short list of things we'll make happen no matter what crisis is taking place. 

I figured, too, some European soccer, like NFL, would be valuable enough to necessitate gameplay regardless of the state of society. The first sport to return was German soccer (actually Korean baseball never went away and for a hot minute was strangely popular among gaming starved degenerates). As I am an avid watcher of the Bundesliga, I was happy to partake of sports as soon as possible. A random observation: playing in cavernous empty stadia with no background noise of any kind was actually unnerving to hear. It was loud and weird and yet you still couldn't make out what they were saying so it wasn't helpful or enlightening. It was just weird. Playing music or piping in crowd noise actually makes a lot of sense for the TV viewing, which is something that never would have occurred to me before. 

The first American sports to return was the MLS in the form of a bubble tournament that showed the way for the NBA and NHL. And it was surprisingly fun (*), but the constant advertisement for the Disney campus, a vacation spot in a time when no one is allowed to leave their homes, seemed like bizarre filler from another time, annoying at first and then just laughable after a while.  

The NBA bubble was a bizarre experiment but at the time we needed it. Americans needed to see how life was supposed to be re-learned. The players had their ups and downs, for example the Suns looked better than ever, but some players (*ahem* Paul George) clearly did not look at ease or anything like normal. But the level of play was really good (hmmm, I like not having fans on the floor) and the commitment to getting it done was heartening. And though it still made for weird play, it was good and I'm glad it happened. 

I don't mean to suggest that the Lakers didn't earn their victory over the Heat--they absolutely did and I think the Lakers are the deserving champs. But its hard not to notice how untimely injuries decimated the Heat. In there of the games (1,2,6) the Heat had no chance but in the other three games (3,4,5) they went 2-1 and probably should've gone 3-0 (indeed, it was rare late game heroics from Lebron that pulled it out for the Lakers in Game Four). So while the Lakers were clearly the better team, it wasn't the blowout that it might look like, that series could've and should've been a lot closer.

I was glad to see baseball back--and I gotta say I love baseball as much as ever. Again, the weird conditions made for a weird year but you gotta go with what you got and the Dodgers-Rays Series was a good one. The Dodgers overwhelmed the Rays in a way that I think the Yankees might've been able to withstand. The Dodgers were on base all the time, it was just too much for the Rays to keep up with (and taking out your ace in Game Six of the World Series because the bean counters decreed it is...uh...just fucking daffy). Wouldn't be surprised to see a Dodgers-Yankees Series in 2021, might be just what the doctor ordered come autumn. (And I got a feeling it might be Yankees-Dodgers for, like, the next ten years)

As for NFL, I've been fine without the fans but it is different. For example, in Week One the Packers played the Vikings in an empty stadium. Packers built a comfortable lead but in the 2nd half the Vikings offense started putting points on the board and I couldn't help wondering if a cheering audience could've worked some magic for the Vikings. What is the effect of the fans on an NFL game? I dunno but this has taught me: when a football falls in a forest, everybody hears about it. 

I feel bad for the college kids whose seasons were screwy. They don't get a lot of chances to do their thing and this year will be a stunted (at best) experience for most of them. College football is strangely exposing how much the big boys need the little fish to make them look bigger by comparison. Yes, we know the titans dominate every year but the sheer amount of teams and games keep everyone involved even when we know they're far from the center of power. Without the wide variety of schools, the BCS feels like the football equivalent of the Grammys: a miniscule portion pretending to be the whole shmeer. 

How does 2021 look now? Well....NBA is good but the Covid lay-offs are gonna make for another weird post-season. We'll see if the Champions League is any different. NHL is fine but just got started. MLB is already having labor strife (kinda surprised last summer's strife wasn't worse) and I'm not yet convinced we'll even have a season this year. Aussie Open seems on the verge of collapse and I don't really see how tennis gets going. March Madness is gonna be weird no matter what happens (**). 

The Masters should still be good, though. So there's that and the other stuff will still be worth watching even if its weird. 

And by September I fully expect the NFL to keep rolling no matter what's going on in the world. I've been on the 18 month timeline since March, with the vaccine on its way, herd immunity steadily becoming a reality and everyone getting increasingly comfortable with the social distancing combined with the timeless dependability of football, I think that time horizon still holds. 

2020 required me to reevaluate my daydreams. I spent intellectual capital on things other than sports and while you probably think that's a good thing, I think I've learned once and for all that it is not a good thing. Science is vastly overrated, Politics is for charlatans and fools, the Markets are just like sports but less fun, video games have never grabbed me and Cinema has become more useful to me as as a look to the past rather than an eye on contemporary culture. 

Sports has outcomes, sports encourages statistical evaluation and problem solving, sports is gripping drama and ongoing soap opera. Sport is enlightening and enjoyable, it is the ideal meld of competition and cooperation. I'm ready to admit it: Sports are just better than everything else. And I'm ready to get my life back. 

(*) Gotta be honest I remember the semifinal better than the Championship. Nani had two killer goals in the semifinal that were just nasty. Just one heads-up vet making the game his own in a way that we just hadn't seen in months. A thing of beauty. But then Orlando lost in the Final. Oh well, great semifinal at any rate. 

(**) Put your money on Gonzaga. 

2020 Academy Awards

Documentary
I have not seen any of the nominees and this category does offer a kooky conundrum: I suspect Honeyland is everyone's favorite title but American Company is the reason Barry and Shelly Obama were thought to be in attendance (no dice, the Obamas will be eating microwave popcorn in their jammies like the rest of us). Honeyland is an uplifting movie about nature at its loveliest and most optimistic but American Factory gives all those good Cali liberals a chance to vote for Obama for a third time (ha!). As for the other three titles, I just can't imagine they're gonna have any shot. And if the Obamas aren't in attendance, I'd be surprise if a nuts-and-bolts blue collar worker movie actually won. (I had two docs in my top ten this year: Apollo 11 (a reminder that people used to set out to do things and then do them) and Hail Satan? (an eye-opening look at the practices and crusades of the Satanic Temple, which it turns out cares way more about the American people than any political candidate I've ever seen)).  My pick: Honeyland 

Visual Effects
Actually I only saw two of the nominees in this category: 1917 (amazingly good) and The Irishman (amazingly divisive). Avengers and Star Wars and Disney, yeah yeah yeah, but I thought Ad Astra was good enough to be here and that Midsommar was quite sly in its use of visual effects. But I suspect 1917 will nab a lot of down ballot votes like this one and it is a worthy recipient. (My personal fave: 1917) My pick: 1917

Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Yeah, I don't do the Oscar-picking thing the way it is supposed to be done as I think of this as one category that I would call Sound Design. And the Academy clearly thinks pretty much the same way since (as per usual) four of the five nominees are the same across the two categories: 1917, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, all of which are perfectly reasonable candidates. I suspect 1917 sweeps both of these because the film was a technical marvel, so giving it the tech awards makes sense, and often these two categories are where you see the big winner swallow up a bunch of momentum. (Personal faves: 1917, Ad Astra) My pick: 1917 to take both

Original Song
I dunno, this category means absolutely nothing to me year after year. My gut is that Sir Elton has already won an Oscar (and that Bohemian Rhapsody last year took care of everyone's classic rock jones), that Frozen II was a fine little hit but not the cultural juggernaut the original was, that Toy Story 4 made some money but didn't turn any heads and....wait, what is Breakthrough? I'm going with Harriet largely because I don't think Cynthas Erivo has much shot at Best Actress. (My personal fave: uh, so I guess Guava Island isn't eligible? Nor is "Anima"?) My pick: Harriet

Original Score
Yeah, I only notice scores when they're terrible, so I've got no ear for this one (Them That Follow was the only film this year that featured a score that was so--uh, not bad, let's say inappropriate--that it caught my attention). So far I've been leaning toward 1917 for anything I'm not sure of, but I'll go with Little Women here (the other title I expect to win more than you think), though I wouldn't be shocked to see John Williams win for one more Star Wars movie or Joker to earn some recognition for being such a volatile hit or for Marriage Story to be remembered for its one lovely and enjoyable quality. (My personal fave: The Dead Don't Die (Jarmusch's worst movie but when it comes to music, even terrible Jarmusch is still better than everything else)) My pick: Little Women

Makeup/Hair
Not sure why 1917 is in here, they mostly wear clunky helmets and sweat their asses off--not once while watching this movie was I thinking hair and makeup--but this is what happens when a title rolls heavy into Oscar night. Joker and Judy are more reasonable choices here, I suppose, and Maleficent is as well. But I thought Bombshell's hair and makeup was among the best I've seen in years, Charlize Theron was utterly transformed and that's impressive. (My personal fave: The Lighthouse (not a particularly good movie, but visually it was a great piece of work and the hair and makeup really made a difference)). My pick: Bombshell

Costume
Jojo Rabbit, Little Women and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood display a wide range of looks and a variability that was admirable. The Irishman had a ton of characters across a lot of time periods but I didn't notice anything particularly notable about the costuming and Joker had a unique look but a dearth of characters or situations that call for innovative costuming. This category is gonna be, I think, more important than you realize: I got a feeling the winner of this also wins Best Picture. (My fave: Rocketman (dang, no love for the Elton biopic over here?)) My pick: Little Women (but keep an eye on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Production Design
Often this is a category that leaves me scratching my head but this season I get all these choices: they're complicated films that have intricate and specific visual looks to them and that begins on the set. 1917 is a magnificent piece of work because the sheer amount of set that would need to be dressed at any given moment must've been a fuckin' football field! Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had numerous movie-within-movie scenes, which doubles the level of difficulty. Jojo Rabbit is a kid movie's that has to avoid looking like Nazi propaganda--not as easy it sounds! The Irishman had a wide variety of sets across time periods and ethnicities, etc., and just a mammoth number of scenes. Parasite is all about the differences between two worlds--which means it has to create two entirely different worlds, one of which gets (*spoiler alert*) pretty well destroyed. This is a 'cascade' category: often this goes to the Best Picture winner but I think this stays within the sidebar technical achievement cascade. (Personal fave: Midsommar, The Lighthouse, The Last Black Man in San Francisco all stood out to me) My pick: 1917 (could be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Editing
The fact that 1917 isn't here is the eye-opener (yeah, I get it it looks like it's got no editing...that's how fuckin' staggeringly great the editing was!), and this would've been an easy win for 1917, too. Oh well. Ford v Ferarri features excellent editing (not merely a variety of action scenes but a wide complexity of dialogue scenes, as well), but Jojo Rabbit and Joker and Parasite are kinda puzzling choices: they're fine films but nothing about the editing seemed to be the real cornerstone of any of these films. I think this statue has the name Thelma Schoonmaker already etched on it--removing 1917 from the running pretty much tells you the Academy already knows where this is going. (Personal fave: Uncut Gems (lot of handheld camera, lot of action, lot of characters, lot of stuff going on at all times, this was really well put together)) My pick: The Irishman

Cinematography
I had three of the nominees in my top five (I had Midsommar and Uncut Gems over Joker and The Irishman), so I feel like I get where the Academy is going here. Okay, here's the point where I think I should lay out my main Oscars thesis: I don't think any of the obvious front runners (1917, The Irishman, Joker, Parasite) win Best Picture. I think it goes to either Little Women or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. That said, I think 1917 wins a ton of awards but not the big prize, so does Cinematography hang with 1917's run on the tech awards or is it a precursor to the Best Picture surprise (in which case, keep an eye on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)? There are going to be a lot of awards to keep an eye on this year and this could be one of them. (Personal fave: 1917) My pick: 1917

International Feature
Feels like Parasite is a slam dunk over here, but don't sleep on Pain & Glory or Honeyland. That said, Almodovar has had his Oscar glory in the past and I think Honeyland wins Best Documentary, so...yeah, I've already talked myself out of this not being a slam dunk. (Personal fave: Parasite) My pick: Parasite

Animated Feature
I dunno...I'll go with I Lost My Body, simply because it's foreign and weird and not one of these typical juggernauts. Toy Story 4 was a fine film, Missing Link surprised all by picking up the Golden Globe, the How to Train Your Dragon franchise just keeps rolling along, (I don't know what Klaus is), any of those could win. I'm going with the critical darling that's already on Netflix, I just feel like more voters had probably had a chance to catch up with it. (Personal fave: Toy Story 4 and I Lost My Body are the only animated films I saw this year, tough to choose) My pick: I Lost My Body

Original Screenplay
This is an interesting category. Everyone's favorite edgy foreign film (Parasite), everyone's favorite (faux) edgy popcorn flick (Knives Out), the technical achievement of the year (1917), everyone's favorite previously decorated screenwriter (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and everyone'd favorite previously un-decorated screenwriter (Marriage Story). This would be a great place to throw a chip at Parasite or Tarantino (I think a nomination is all Knives Out will get or that 1917 really deserves), but I think the storyline of husband and wife each taking home Screenplay awards is too delicious to pass up, I got to take Noah Baumbach to win. (Personal fave: Parasite) My pick: Marriage Story

Adapted Screenplay
Wow, these nominees are all over the place! Joker made a bunch of money and had its moment as a cultural thing but personally it did nothing for me and I see no reason why it even got this nomination. The Two Popes is a fine little off-Broadway play (though those Vatican interiors popped much better than anything at your local playhouse), but did anything really happen in their discussions? Was anything illuminated or explained or investigated? No. It was just two old dudes shooting the shit for two hours--again, fine for a play but not the most captivating film of the year. Jojo Rabbit is a tricky piece of work and I think the creators did an excellent job walking all the various tightropes, it is a fine film (just outside of my top ten) and one of the finer adapted screenplays of the year, but just short of a win, I'd say. The Irishman, too, comes with a lot of off-screen baggage about the veracity of any of this story, but I was bowled over by the film itself and a great screenplay really helps out and this would be a worthy winner. But, again, I can't help being sucked in by the husband/wife duo taking home Oscars and they're both totally worthy. What Greta Gerwig does with the original material shows an amazing amount of depth and understanding and it all went into the finished product. (Personal fave: Little Women) My pick: Little Women

Director
This is another one of those categories where the inclusion of Joker is mystifying to me. Yeah, I get it: everyone liked it more than me. But the Academy took Todd Phillips over the Safdie Brothers? Over Great Gerwig and Noah Baumbach? Over James Mangold? I get that it made a bunch of money but its cultural moment has already passed, hasn't it? This nomination just seems like a waste to me. Likewise with the Tarantino nomination: I don't see him having much of a chance of winning, so throwing him in there instead of reaching for a first-timer feels like a missed opportunity (unless...). Bong, Mendes and Scorsese were my top three of the season and I have to assume the Academy agrees with me and since I don't think any of these three win Best Picture, it becomes a choice between 1917's sweep of the tech awards or a chance to fete a long-underappreciated director, Bong Joon-Ho. (Personal fave: Parasite) My pick: I'm going with Parasite

Actor
Jonathon Pryce is clearly just a throw-in (nice to reward actors for making films with zero box office potential) and I think Dicaprio is too (does anyone really think he's gonna win for this?). As is Banderas, who is fine in the film but I didn't think him superlative. Nor did I think that of Joaquin Phoenix, who has been gobbling up all the run-up awards and seems likely win this one. I think Phoenix is fine in Joker but he's not doing anything I haven't seen him do before (the Academy has missed chances in the past to honor him, feels like they're not going to miss the chance this year). My choice would be Adam Driver because he really gets to the heart of something seriously complicated in Marriage Story (and because pound for pound he's arguably the MVP actor of the last decade) but I don't think that happens. (Personal fave: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)) My pick: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Actress
Cynthia Erivo is a fine young talent and I think she'll pick up an Oscar for Best Song, but here she's clearly in 5th place. Saoirse Ronan has become one of the top actresses in the game at the moment and she's really great in this movie. Charlize Theron transforms in Bombshell (though I would've put her in Supporting Actress). Scarlett Johanson is also really good in a way we haven't seen before in Marriage Story. And Rene Zellweger is piling up the run-up awards for her amazing turn in Judy. I liked all of these choices (though I would've squeezed Lupita N'Yongo (Us) in here somewhere), so this category feels as wide open as any because I don't see any impact on Best Picture from this category. (Personal fave: Zellweger (Judy)) My pick: Rene Zellweger (Judy)

Supporting Actor
I don't get this category this year. Of these only Pacino and Pitt were in my top five, so including Tom Hanks for a Mister Rogers movie nobody saw and Anthony Hopkins for a Pope Benedict movie nobody saw makes no sense to me, though I guess I'm more lenient of just wanting to have Joe Pesci in the house again. But, dude, how do you leave out Timothe Chalemet (Little Women) or even John Lithgow (Bombshell)? Tom Hanks...why? What are you doing, Academy? If you really wanna reach for something, then why not nominate Bob Oedenkirk (Long Shot), which is a tougher performance than it looks like? Everyone thinks Pitt is going to win and that's fine, but the Academy really could've made these selections more interesting. (Personal fave: Timothe Chalamet (Little Women)) My pick: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Supporting Actress
The odds-on favorite seems to be Laura Dern (Marriage Story), but couldn't she have won for Little Women? And I liked Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit but that doesn't overshadow her performance in Marriage Story. And while I liked Margot Robbie in Bombshell, my favorite supporting actress performance this season was actually Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. (I liked Florence Pugh but suddenly I'm bummed I didn't catch Fighting With My Family this year) I didn't see Richard Jewell but Kathy Bates is always reliable and as she's won before, I suspect she's just here to round out the nominees. I gotta go with Dern here because I think Jojo Rabbit was built for nominations, not wins, and because I think Bombshell was actually not a particularly good movie, hard to see Robbie stealing an award for that here. (Personal favorite: Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) (part of the original complaint of this movie is that Robbie doesn't do much but I disagree: her job is to be angelic! Not easy to pull off and she pulls it off so well that audiences didn't even seem to notice--that's a great performance!)) My pick: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Best Picture
Okay, here we go. The clear favorites all come with strong resumes: Parasite won the Palm D'or at Cannes, Joker won the Golden Lion at Venice, 1917 won the BAFTA, and The Irishman topped the Nat'l Board of Review, NY Film Critics and Hollywood Film Critics. But I don't think any of these titles will win. I think it's a race between Little Women (a really really good women's film that has quietly made a shit ton of money) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Tarantino's most innocuous film and one that seemed like an also-ran from the moment it dropped, but one that even the most skeptical secretly loved). Ford v Ferarri is a fine film but a forgotten once, Jojo Rabbit needed nominations to cement its legitimacy but actually winning the big awards doesn't seem likely to me and Marriage Story is a respectable piece of work but not an enjoyable one, not one the Academy will feel the need to hold up to posterity. And back to the frontrunners: 1917 is a fine technical achievement that will win a ton of awards but not the big prize, Parasite is everyone's favorite talking point but the Foreign Language Oscar was invented for this very occurrence, Joker was a big hit but I think it gets completely shut out (with the possible exception of Phoenix) and The Irishman is Netflix's big get and nothing more. When voters are looking over these choices there are too many obvious choices to pick the right one, I think people will go back to the films they really loved this year and I suspect that's a choice between mild mannered Tarantino and up-and-comer Greta Gerwig steadily accruing respect while doing it the right way. Tough to choose, actually, but I'm gonna go with Little Women. (Personal favorite: Apollo 11 was my favorite film of the year--a movie about a time when people used to set out to do things and then they did them! That said, I adored Parasite and thought The Irishman was a fucking masterpiece)) My pick: Little Women

Recap
I think the Academy Awards will look a bit like the recent Super Bowl: the first 3/4 are gonna be all 1917 and in the final quarter will be no 1917. 1917, like The Revenant, is a technical marvel, a compulsively watchable movie simply because of its stunning visual style; but, also like The Revenant, it isn't a groundbreaking story or a Best Picture. I think 1917 will dominate the tech awards and I don't see something like Ad Astra sneaking in and getting wins, 1917 is the dominant tech film of this season. But once we get down to the fun awards, 1917 will disappear and won't reappear as a variety of other titles move in to shine. A coupla locks: Parasite will win Best Foreign and The Irishman will win Best Editing and I really like Harriet's chance of taking Best Song. Otherwise, it'll mostly be 1917 (with an eye on Little Women and/or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood stealing awards along the way), until we get to the acting categories and then the variability of this season will begin to stand out.

Outside of the overwhelming love I don't understand for Joker, I think this awards ceremony is relatively free of obvious snubs outside of missing an Editing nod for 1917 (that was an easy one, guys), acting nods for Lupita N'Yongo (Us) and Timothe Chalamet (Little Women) and, wait--no Costume nomination for Rocketman? I'm a little surprised that were no nods for The Last Black Man in San Francisco though I'm not surprised the Academy is not quite ready to anoint the Uncut Gems or Midsommar crews just yet (they'll be back, those crews are chocked full of badasses) and while Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) is ready for some love I think she's got many more chances on the way. I liked Ford v Ferarri more than most and I'm a little surprised Ad Astra was such an afterthought but all in all I thought 2019 was a good, not great, year for movies and I think the Oscars are gonna spread the love around--that is, after 1917 grabs itself a handful, I think there will be some surprises later on in the show. All right, let's find out.

2020 Super Bowl

Niners 20-31 Chiefs

A coupla personal observations: before the game I picked Chiefs 38-23 (so I expected each team to have one more score), tied at 10 at halftime I surmised the Chiefs would win 31-17 (close), at 5 minutes to go Niners up 20-17 I said to my friend, 'there's still enough time for the Chiefs to score two touchdowns' (nailed it). Strange game but the result still seems about right. Indeed, it isn't the final score that seems weird, it was the first 75% of the game that seemed weird!

Mahomes was not good for most of this game, the Chiefs offense was unusually sluggish and while the Niners were good, they weren't dominant. This was a close game that felt like the Niners had figured out the Chiefs for the most part. But while the first three quarters of the game were a Niners-inspired sludgefest, it was only a matter of time before Patrick Mahomes got loose, made plays and won the game. And down the stretch it was exactly what I thought it'd be: either Jimmy G or the Niners defense would have to make plays. Jimmy G missed a long ball to Sanders that would've put them back on top and the Niners D just ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. This isn't an indictment on Jimmy G (I still think he can be really really good) or the Niners D (that pass rush is gonna trouble for years to come), just an acknowledgement that Pat Mahomes is a magician and arguably the best in the game right now.

One thing, though: there was much complaint about Coach Shanahan's clock management at the end of the 1st half and I gotta say not only the haters wrong about Shanahan--Shanahan's moves were brilliant! It gets completely undone by the bad pass interference call on George Kittle (bad call!), but if you take that out the Niners have the ball in FG range with two timeouts and 15 seconds left. They've still got two shots at the end zone and an extra three points in the pocket--Shanahan made all the right moves, it was the refs that shot him in the foot. Shanahan didn't call timeouts earlier because he didn't need to, he knows that it's only the last 20 seconds that matter, so why stop the clock with 90 seconds to go? Unfortunate the way it played out for him but he was right and the haters all missed the point.

This really was a good match between two good teams and it stayed competitive throughout, though only got exciting late. Good W for the Chiefs! Congrats! Not a lot of fireworks in this game and it was over so quick, but an even match between two good teams and that's nothing to complain about.

Pre-pre-pre-season prediction: I like the Niners to come out of the NFC again next year, they've got the offense and the defense to get it done, I do believe in Jimmy G and in that defense and I think they'll be tough to stop going forward. Also, I just don't see anyone else in the NFC gets notably better next year: Packers, Saints and Seahawks are just getting older, Rams, Eagles and Vikings need to take a step forward (maybe but maybe not) and no one else even seems capable of going toe-to-toe with the Niners. As for the Chiefs, well, they'll have the Ravens to look forward to and a lot of teams that could make big leaps (Browns, Bills, Raiders, Steelers, Titans all come to mind) and we're not even sure that the Patriots are done (feels like it, but I'll need to see a corpse before I declare them dead).The AFC is a bit more of a minefield but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Chiefs-Niners show up again next year.

As for the halftime show, I had it on mute but it sure was a visual spectacle! And, honestly, that's all the halftime show is good for anyway. We don't really need a musical act, just give us 15 minutes of visual craziness and going the Busby Berkeley/relentless visuals route is the kind of idea the NFL should probably stick with.


PS -- I know nobody asked but if we're really thinking Tom Brady might end up somewhere other than New England, doesn't Cleveland seem perfect for him? Don't you think Brady looks at Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb and that offensive line and thinks, 'Dang, I can win a Super Bowl with that?' The Browns are still looking for a Coach, why not bring in Josh McDaniels and give Tom Brady big money for 2 years? Yeah, I know what you're thinking: but what about Baker Mayfield? Yeah....what about him?

2019-20 NFL Super Bowl

Conference championships
Titans 24-35 Chiefs
I thought the key to this game would be the Chiefs getting out to a quick lead to neutralize the Titan rushing attack.  Uh, not so much.  Titans got up 10-0 right off the bat and it seemed like the Chiefs were on their heels.  But then Mahomes made plays, Chiefs scored points and soon enough the Titans were an afterthought in their own game. A note on Derrick Henry: back in the Laker threepeat days, I remember every time the Lakers came down the court and didn't give the ball to Shaq, I wondered, 'Why aren't you giving the ball to Shaq?' That's what Derrick Henry was in this playoffs: every time the Titans did something other than give the ball to Henry, I wondered, 'Why didn't you give the ball to Henry?' Seriously, this is one of those games where the coach must've pulled Henry aside and said, 'Okay, kid, you're getting the ball 40 times this week. Be ready!' But for some reason the Titans mixed up their game plan and it just didn't work, they spun their wheels and once the Chiefs got going, this was all over. Mahomes is the man.

Packers 20-37 Niners
I thought this match would be closer, thought the Packers would dial up something different then their regular season thrashing by the Niners. Uh, not so much. Niners came to play, dominated the game early. I thought Aaron Rodgers was primed to have a big game but frankly I thought Rodgers kinda killed the Packers: a bad fumble when driving in the 1st half and then a bad interception right before halftime for the Niners to pile on their lead and it was over. The Packers accumulated some points in the 2nd half but it never really mattered. The Niners controlled this game completely on both sides of the ball. 


Super Bowl
Niners @ Chiefs (-1.5) (o/u 54)
I think the Niners are the better team top to bottom but I am more convinced that the Chiefs (re: Patrick Mahomes) will make the plays necessary to win the game. In order for the Niners to hang they will need either a defensive TD and/or Jimmy Garropolo to make plays. Both of those things are quite possible but we haven't seen Jimmy G make plays so far and while I think he's capable, I just haven't seen it yet so I'm more convinced in Mahomes. Likewise, that Niner D is good--that pass rush is GREAT--but Mahomes has beaten good defenses before and I just have more faith in Mahomes than in anything the Niners are bringing. I think the Niners get out to a quick 10-0 lead, I think the Chiefs are up at halftime 17-16. Then I like the Chiefs to wear the Niners out in the 2nd half. Yeah, I know the Niners really are the better, more complete team, but the Chiefs have a playmaker that can squash all that pronto. I like Chiefs to win 38-23 (Chiefs and the over).