2025 NFL (after 4 games)

AFC

4-0

Bills

Well, the Bills defense is suspect--even more than the last few seasons--but so far it feels like QB Josh Allen is ready to outscore all comers. So far, the Bills are the best team in the league but there's a lot of season left.  The Bills were my pre-season pick to win it all and for now I've got no reason to change course.

3-1

Chargers, Colts, Jags, Steelers

The Chargers are probably gonna charge but so far they look tougher and sharper than the squad that's been fumbling away 4th quarters for more than a decade. QB Herbert looks like the crafty veteran the nerds have been accusing him of being since he arrived in the league and the defense just looks better this year, more complete. I dunno, for now they look like Buffalo's real competition. 

The Colts are getting the Danny Dimes-a-ssance and suddenly it appears like their inability to find a competent QB has masked that the rest of the roster isn't bad. A QB that isn't a disaster is maybe all they needed (especially in their so-so division). I am slow to give up on QB's and, man, Danny Dimes has had moments in this league, and so far he seems to be exactly what the Colts have needed for a while now. Will they still be around at the end of the year? I can see it, actually.

I'll say it: I like the Jags. Their one L so far was to the Bengals and, man, the Jags worked really hard to lose that game. The blame that QB Lawrence has been getting is unwarranted (I think the receivers deserve the share of the blame) and that defense is legit good all over the field. I think the Jags are actually good and though they will surely have their stumbles throughout the season (because they're not used to winning), I expect them to be in the hunt for their division or a wild card spot.

The Steelers are the up/down team: they'll have weeks where they look damn good on both sides of the ball and then weeks where they just flat out suck. Rodgers has moments of mojo and moments of over the hill and their defense is pretty similar. Can that mediocrity get them into the post-season? Maybe, but I suspect they won't last long if they get there. 

2-2

Chiefs, Broncos, Patriots, Bengals

Clearly it's too early to give up on Mahomes but the Chiefs really do look like they're falling back to the pack--especially with the Chargers and Broncos stepping up. Don't count them out but they sure don't look like the world beaters they've been for as long as anyone can remember.

The Broncos are....okay. I think they're pretty good on both sides of the ball, good enough to beat bad teams but not necessarily good enough to hang with the real good ones. They'll be in the playoff hunt but I suspect they come up short.  

The Patriots are moving in the right direction but their next match--Monday night in Buffalo--will show us if they're really ready to compete. I can see the Pats being up and down all season long, good enough to be in the playoff hunt...maybe. But this is probably more of a building-for-next-year kinda team.

I wasn't in on the Bengals this season and if they have to go 6-ish weeks without QB Joe Burrow, I don't see how they hang. They got lucky against the Browns and the Jags, they should probably be winless.

1-3

Ravens, Texans, Browns, Raiders, Dolphins

The Ravens are the best 1-3 team in the league. Yeah, the defense is not that good, the offense has yet to gel and they're currently racked by injuries. But so far they've lost to the Bills (game of the year so far), Lions and Chiefs, so I'm not worried about them yet. 

The Texans haven't gotten going and I'm not sure why. I can't help thinking this season might get away from them before they get hot and snag some W's down the stretch. I still like that D and that QB but I also like the Colts and Jags more than I thought I would, so gonna be tough for the Texans to compete. Feels like this might be an off year for the Texans (keep an eye on them for next season).

The Browns have a hell of a defense but I don't think they'll score any points., so I just can't see them winning too many games.

The Raiders are frisky but they look like such a slopfest of a team that I reckon they'll get a few upset W's, but I can't see them sniffing the post-season.

The Dolphins are not particularly good at anything, moving in the wrong direction. But they still play hard, they'll compete week to week, they'll score a few highlights but I don't think they're gonna win many games. 

0-4

Jets, Titans

The Jets are not particularly good at anything. but I doubt that they are as bad as they've been so far. I can see the Jets sucking pretty bad and then piling up some upsets down the stretch.

The Titans are the worst team in the league. I like their rookie QB, but the coach seems like an idiot and there's not a wealth of talent on either side. They're my #1 pick for the #1 pick. 

NFC

4-0

Eagles

They just keep chugging along but somehow I'm still not sure if they're any good. I can see them going undefeated or finishing with a losing record, I dunno. 

3-1

Lions, Bucs, Seahawks, Rams, Niners

I think the Lions are the cream of the NFC. They weren't ready for opening week at Lambeau but they've been killing it since then and I think they're the team to beat going forward.

The Bucs manage to squeeze out more W's than L's and I can't tell if its because they just find a way to win or if they ought to be way better and are just getting by. They were my pre-season pick for the Super Bowl and, I dunno, I guess they could be. We'll see. 

The Seahawks and the Rams and the Niners all seem overacheiving so far. The Seahawks are strangely good on the road (but strangely soft at home), the Niners have a weird roster but seem to get W's, and the Rams have one of my fave QB's but I'm not a huge fan of any of the rest of that roster. Once they start playing each other one of these teams will emerge and one will fade, not sure which is which. 

2-2 (2-1-1)

Packers, Vikings, Falcons, Cards, Commanders, Bears

The Packers managed to give away a W against the Browns (eh, that was a fluke) and turned a W into a Tie in Dallas (eh, they should've won by 2 touchdowns). But I still think that along with the Lions, the Packers are a top tier squad, they just need to get their shit together.

I think the Vikings are a mirage, I just can't see them hanging in a tough division with a rookie QB.

I like the Falcons, plenty of weapons of offense and it feels like they're finally starting to figure it out--though getting shut out in Carolina is still a head scratcher. Can they win that division? If they can find the consistency that has eluded the Bucs, I think so.  

The Cards are not the fourth best team in their division. Are they the best? Could be. But I don't see a wild card coming out of that division, so they need to win it. 

I think the Commanders overachieved last year and it stands to reason that they'll fall toward the middle. In the wild card hunt, I reckon, but I think they come up short. 

I am not in on the Bears at all. The defense is pretty good but they still haven't figured out the offense and I think that division is too tough for them to experiment for much longer. 

1-3 (1-2-1)

Cowboys, Giants, Panthers

The Cowboys have a good offense and a terrible defense. They'll win some games and should be a fun watch but I can't see them as a playoff squad. 

The Giants have finally settled on their rookie QB but Jaxson Dart is a wild man (just slightly this side of Anthony Richardson) and I can't imagine he makes it a full season and though I like him, I doubt he'll make much of a difference this season. They do have a nasty pass rush, though, they'll steal some W's. 

The Panthers are terrible. That's all.  

0-4

Saints

The Saints are not good but--god love 'em!--this franchise does not believe in tanking--they're out there trying to win the Super Bowl...and not coming close. They play hard, they play with pride, they'll get some W's, doubt they'll get the #1 pick but they won't be far off (Nussmeyer on their wish list, I presume?).  

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 5)

Games I saw (some of):

(21) Southern Cal 32-34 (23) Illinois

Fun game! Two evenly matched teams, Southern Cal may well be the better squad, but Illinois expertly worked the clock to get the final possession and that's what it took. Illinois has already had their staggering defeat and since I don't see them beating Ohio State or Penn State, I reckon their path to the tournament is over, but they're still gonna be a tough out; Southern Cal, on the other hand, is still in play and if they can build, they might still turn into something.

(1) Ohio State 24-6 Washington

The Huskies played hard but they just couldn't hang with the Buckeyes. After halftime, Ohio State dialed up enough offense to convincingly put away UW, but UW's defense was pretty great in the 1st half. Just another ho-hum W for the Buckeyes, but a strong showing for the Huskies, wonder if they can hang around in the Big 10.

(4) Louisiana State 19-24 (13) Mississippi

Really impressed with Ole Miss's D-line. LSU's early season victory over Clemson seemed so impressive at the time, but...Clemson...so now I'm not so sure. I thought they would handle the Rebels, but it was the other way around. Ole Miss controlled the whole game through their pass rush and run stopping ability. I'm still not that in on Ole Miss, but this was a good W for them. The SEC is clearly up for grabs this year.

(6) Oregon 30-24 (2OT) (3) Penn State

Fun game! Why doesn't Penn State play their 4th quarter offense for the whole game? Both teams plodded along, I thought Oregon was generally the better side throughout, but once they took a 2 TD lead in the 4th quarter, Penn State came storming back....so why do they always wait til the last minute to get their offense going? I hate to pile on Penn State, I think they've really built something special there, but sometimes they seem doomed by their own conservativeness. Oregon is a good squad, can't wait to see them up against the Buckeyes. 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Ohio State, (6) Oregon, (9) Texas A&M, (11) Indiana, (13) Mississippi, (14) Iowa State, (15) Tennessee, (17) Alabama, (18) Vanderbilt, (20) Missouri, (22) Notre Dame, (23) Illinois, (25) Brigham Young

Won but did not impress

(16) Georgia Tech (I dunno, normally I'm sympathetic to conference W's on the road, but I want to see Tech dominate a lesser opponent and Wake Forest probably should've won; not a good look)

Bad beat

(4) Louisiana State (disappointing L but Ole Miss's defense is legit, they were the better team)

(21) Southern Cal (good showing on the road in conference, I think they're probably better than Illinois but the Illini did what they needed to do; tough L for the Trojans)

Not so good

(3) Penn State (if you're gonna win a championship, you've got to beat Oregon at home, I know it ain't easy but it's that simple)

(5) Georgia (do you realize Bama has beaten UGA 10 of the last 11 times they've played? That's mind blowing considering how dominant UGA was for a while there)

(8) Florida State (gotta beat UVA on the road, I'm sorry but them's the rules)

(24) Texas Christian (I thought they had Arizona State beat but...they did not)

Next week's intriguing matches

(16) Vanderbilt @ (10) Alabama (Last year Vandy routed Bama, this year Vandy is ranked--what the hell is going on? When will this madness stop?!?!?)

(3) Miami @ (18) Florida State (I think Miami is going to pummel FSU but maybe not; the Seminoles probably didn't deserve to drop so much for an OT loss at UVA, perhaps that will give them the spark they need)

Mississippi State @ (6) Texas A&M (A&M might be for real or they might not, I have no idea; but the SEC is a gauntlet and A&M must beware of traps; we'll see if they're up for this one)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 4)

Games I saw (some of):

(22) Auburn 17-24 (11) Oklahoma

I like Oklahoma, that QB Mateer is for real, but I thought Auburn was mostly snakebit in this match. Easy to say OU is the better team--they might be--but if Auburn can calm their jittery nerves, I think they might be really good (or at least a tough out in the SEC).

(17) Texas Tech 34-10 (16) Utah

Tech dominated this game, felt like Utah couldn't move the ball at all (at home!). I think Utah is pretty good, which makes Tech look like a for-real tourney team right now. 

(21Michigan 30-27 Nebraska

Fun match. Nebraska hung tough, did not get intimidated, hung around, had their chances late. I like Michigan but I'm not sure they're gonna rip through the Big 10 this season.

Top 25

Handled their business

(3) Louisiana State, (4) Miami, (6) Oregon, (7) Florida State, (8) Texas, (11) Oklahoma, (13) Mississippi, (15) Tennessee, (17) Texas Tech, (18) Georgia Tech, (19) Indiana, (20) Vanderbilt, (21) Michigan, (23) Missouri, (24) Notre Dame, (25) Southern Cal

Bad beat

(22) Auburn. I thought the Tigers were pretty good in Norman, more unlucky than incompetent.

Not so good

(9) Illinois. Boy, Indiana whooped up on the Illini like an act of God! Illini got smooooooked at home.

(16) Utah. They were never in the game against Texas Tech.

Next week's intriguing matches:

(21) Southern Cal @ (23) Illinois (so, a bounce back game for the Illini or another shellacking?)

(4) Louisiana State @ (13) Mississippi (I think LSU is gonna stomp Ole Miss, we'll see)

Auburn @ (9) Texas A&M (A&M is good but I'm not out on Auburn, they are frisky and A&M better bring their best game)

(6) Oregon @ (3) Penn State (monster offense vs monster defense, should be a good one)

(17) Alabama @ (5) Georgia (How good is Alabama? How good is Georgia? I dunno, let's see)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 3)

Games I saw (some of):

Florida 10-20 LSU

Hung out with a friend over the weekend, just kinda in and out of football but all I remember of this game was a series of great punts and Florida turning the ball over (and over and over). LSU struck me as the better team on both sides but I was flabbergasted to see that Florida had more total yards than LSU--really? All I saw from them was interceptions and punts. Oh well, not my best watch, but felt like LSU handled their business, but perhaps the take away is that Florida was still in this game despite their inability to finish.

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Ohio State, (2) Penn State, (3) Louisiana State, (4) Oregon, (5) Miami, (6) Georgia, (7) Texas, (9) Illinois, (13) Oklahoma, (16) Texas A&M, (17) Mississippi, (19) Alabama, (20) Utah, (21) Texas Tech, (22) Indiana, (23) Michigan, (25) Missouri

Won but did not impress

(14) Iowa State (seems like it took a while to put away Arkansas State, not a good look)

(24) Auburn (didn't exactly dominate South Alabama but they've got a trip to Oklahoma coming up, so maybe they were just getting by)

Bad beat

(15) Tennessee (the Vols had their chance and maybe they should've beat UGA, but taking UGA to OT is nothing to be ashamed of)

(18) South Florida (coming off strong W's over Boise State and Florida, felt like the Bulls were set up for a shocker in Miami but the Hurricanes didn't fall for the okey-doke (good for them); not a bad L, still got some faith that South Florida might actually be pretty good)

Not so good

(8) Notre Dame (man, really should've put away Texas A&M at home, not a bad L but after a loss in Miami, the Irish need to get some W's and this would've been a good one)

(11) South Carolina (ugh! Blown out at home by Vandy? Not good)

(12) Clemson (another weird effort from Clemson, another L, this season is not going well for the Tigers so far)

Next week's intriguing matches:

(17) Texas Tech @ (16) Utah (should be a fun one--dang is that a 10am local start time? The hell....?)

(22) Auburn @ (11) Oklahoma (Auburn floundered around with South Alabama last week, so are they wonky or were they saving it up for this match? I like OU's QB, they should win at home but let's see if Auburn has a trick up their sleeve)

(21) Michigan @ Nebraska (Michigan is nice but I'm still suspicious of their offense and, well, the Huskers have looked kinda good so far, just curious to see if the Wolverines can avoid the trap)

Florida @ (4) Miami (feels like the Hurricanes should mop the floor with the Gators, we'll see)

(9) Illinois @ (19) Indiana (I suspect (at least) one of these teams isn't actually any good, let's see which one steps forward)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 2)

Games I saw (some of):

(15) Michigan 13-24 (18) Oklahoma

I was impressed with OU, they moved the ball well, had a stout run defense and just generally seemed in control and the better team throughout. I'm curious to see how they hold up in the SEC, coming off a season where they mostly doormatted their way through the year (thought they did stick Alabama in the eye), I didn't have high hopes but now I kinda do. Michigan was okay, I didn't get a feel for what they might be good at, but they still have the whole season ahead of them. Good W for Oklahoma, a non-killer L for Michigan.

(20) Mississippi 30-23 Kentucky

Just kept waiting for Ole Miss to put the Cats away but they just never did. Mind you, I never thought UK was gonna win (I didn't last year either), but the Cats hung around even though their attack is pretty awful. I dunno, man, Ole Miss is supposed to be good but I don't see anything that really makes me think they're gonna do something special in the SEC this year. And as for Kentucky, well, basketball season is right around the corner.

Baylor 48-45 (2OT) (17) Southern Methodist

Fun game! Back and forth throughout, every time I would tell myself Baylor was the better team, SMU would make a play and take the momentum right back. I think Baylor is actually good and I think SMU is overrated, but still time for them to get hot this season, I don't want to write SMU off, it could just be that Baylor is a little bit better. I'm becoming a fan of Baylor's QB.

Top 25

Handled this business

(1) Ohio State, (2) Penn State, (3) Louisiana State, (4) Georgia, (5) Miami, (6) Oregon, (7) Texas, (10) South Carolina, (11) Illinois, (14) Florida State, (16) Iowa State, (18) Oklahoma, (19) Texas A&M, (20) Mississippi, (21) Alabama, (22) Tennessee, (23) Indiana, (24) Texas Tech, (25) Utah

Won but did not impress

(8) Clemson. After the pants-ing they took from LSU last week, I thought they'd come ready to put it in on Troy. Yes, they were weather delays and the game was disjointed, but, man, it took the Tigers a while to get going after a rocky 1st half. Are we sure that QB Klubnick actually has it? Are we sure Clemson is as good as their pre-season top 5 ranking? 

Bad beat

(15) Michigan. I wasn't overly impressed with Michigan but I was impressed with Oklahoma, so I'm willing to chalk this up to the Wolverines getting punked at the home of a top quality opponent. Still time for Michigan to have a great season. 

(17) Southern Methodist. Yeah, when a ranked team loses to an unranked conference foe at home, that probably shouldn't be thought of as a bad beat, but I think Baylor is underrated and I think SMU was probably overrated. After this game, we can reorder that conference and there's still time for SMU to get some wins (their offense can move the ball).

Not so good

(12) Arizona State. Yeah, they fell down 17-0 at Mississippi State, rallied to take the 20-17 lead, and then lost late. Perhaps this was a bad beat, but ASU was in the playoff last year and Mississippi State hasn't had a notable season in a while now, I was expecting more from the Sun Devils. That said, losing on the road in the SEC is hardly a black eye, but we all thought they would win, then we thought they wouldn't, then we thought they would and then they didn't. That's a rollercoaster of disappointment. 

(13) Florida. Figured the Gators would be going in the "won but did not impress" bucket, but they forgot to win. I'm not surprised that South Florida gave the Gators a game--I thought they would!--but I also thought that would inspire the Gators to step up, make plays and secure a hard-earned W. Nope.

Next week's intriguing matches:

Wisconsin @ (19) Alabama (I dunno, this one could be kinda fun)

(6) Georgia @ (15) Tennessee (game o' the week)

(18) South Florida @ (5) Miami (some hot CW action! South Florida has two ranked wins in a row to start the season, are the Hurricanes gonna handle their business or are they gonna get punked?)

Arkansas @ (17) Mississippi (wouldn't be shocked if the Razorbacks give Ole Miss a game)

Florida @ (3) Louisiana State (I thought Florida would respect South Florida, but I am sure that LSU will respect Florida; might be a blow out but it should be intense)

(16) Texas A&M @ (8) Notre Dame (fun game last year, should be a fun one this year, too)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 1)

Games I saw (some of):

(1) Texas 7-14 (3) Ohio State

Sludgefest of a game, thought both defenses were really strong. The buzz about this game was the uninspiring debut of QB Arch Manning, the pre-season fave for Heisman (why?), and, well, he wasn't particularly good. That said, the Buckeye offense wasn't vastly better than the Longhorns. The Buckeyes had two good drives and scored on both; the Longhorns had three good drives and came up short inside the 10 yard line on two of them (you could argue both of those drives were really better than the one they scored on). The Buckeyes were the better team on both sides, but the Longhorns were hardly humiliated, so some of that chatter is wildly overblown. I think both of these teams are really good, I suspect both will be in the playoff and really the home field advantage was probably the real difference. 

(9) Louisiana State 17-10 (4) Clemson

Always important to remember when two college heavyweights get together, often the 2nd half is totally different from the 1st. The 1st half had more offense than the Longhorn-Buckeye match but not much as both teams moved the ball a little bit but for the most part stalled. Clemson had one nice drive before the half and were up 10-3. After that, I thought LSU kinda dominated the rest of the game. Clemson didn't get blown out but they were clearly not as good as LSU, who struck me as maybe the revelation of the opening week: they've got a for-real QB, they can move the ball and their D is gonna be stingy. Not ready to give up on Clemson, I suspect they'll hang around all year (thought Florida State and Miami look like stiffer competition than may have been anticipated).

(8) Alabama 17-31 Florida State

This was an eye-opener. Alabama was primed for a real bounce back season--and that could still happen--whereas the Seminoles were so bad last year (so bad!) that I was already ready to write them off. Record scratch! The Seminoles looked damn good! Their offense is scary, that pass rush is for real and whatever ailed them last year seems to be in the rearview. They took it to the Tide from beginning to end and were the better team on both sides. Now Alabama was starting a rookie QB, had some injuries and were on the road, so I'm not ready to write off the Tide just yet but...man, their schedule is rugged and if they don't get the O-line on track, then their season could go sideways pronto. But the Seminoles were the revelation, they look they're back from whatever hole they fell into last year.

(6) Notre Dame 24-27 (10) Miami

I was impressed with the Hurricanes (though maybe not with their too-conservative coach). I was skeptical of QB Carson Beck, who just never did it for me in his time at UGA and seemed to be shooting his mouth off in embarrassing ways all summer. But, he looked good out there in a Hurricane uni, guess the change of scenery is doing him well. This was a good matchup, felt like Notre Dame was the better team early on, but the Hurricanes definitely took over the game after half time, almost low-keyed the game away, but managed to hold on to the W. Don't want to diss the Irish, though, I felt like they weren't playing their best football, feels like this team is going to be better than this for the rest of the season, so we;ll see if they can maintain the top 10-ness (I think they will). 

Top 25

Handled their business

(2) Penn State, (3) Ohio State, (5) Georgia, (7) Oregon, (9) Louisiana State, (10) Miami, (11) Arizona State, (12) Illinois, (13) South Carolina, (14) Michigan, (15) Florida, (16) Southern Methodist, (18) Oklahoma, (19) Texas A&M, (21) Mississippi, (22) Iowa State (twice), (23) Texas Tech, (24) Tennessee

Won but did not impress

(17) Kansas State (week 1). I dunno, man, could be that North Dakota is actually pretty good, but if K State is gonna hang in the top 20, they need to take care of their cream puffs at home, and they struggled hard to put this team away. We'll see: this might be the real wake up call after getting ground down in Ireland the week before.

(20) Indiana. Didn't exactly dominate Old Dominion at home, I really don't think that's too much to ask of a team that made the playoff last year and fancies themselves a gunslinging sorta offense. 

Bad beat

(1) Texas. Unimpressed with the Longhorns? How about you go to Ohio State and win a game, show me how its done. Despite the chirping, UT handled themselves well on the road to open the season and I fully expect they will hang around the top 10 all year long. 

(4) Clemson. I think LSU is really good, something we couldn't have known two weeks ago. I suspect Clemson will be around at the end of the year and this L likely won't be a killer for them.

(17) Kansas State (week 0). (Two weeks in and they've got a Bad Beat and a Did Not Impress, the Wildcats are not off to a great start) Going to Ireland and playing an unknown foe can't be easy, so I'm willing to look the other way, but following that L with a scuffling save at home to a D2 squad is not filling me with confidence. 

Not so good

(8) Alabama. I think Florida State is good and this L won't be a killer for the Tide this year, but, man, they really could've used that win. If they can up their QB play, they can still be a solid team, this season isn't over for the Tide, but, they need to be flawless from here (and that's a tough ask for anyone).

(25) Boise State. Didn't see their shellacking at South Florida, but a friend told me the game was actually a lot closer than the 34-7 score suggests. Oooooooooo-kay. 

Next week's intriguing matches

Iowa @ (16) Iowa State (they got a big W in Ireland but can the Cyclones win in Iowa?)

Baylor @ (17) Southern Methodist (I thought Baylor handled themselves okay against Auburn, think they're gonna give the Mustangs a game this week)

Oklahoma State @ (6) Oregon (the Cowboys haven't been all the great lately but they're not a cream puff, curious to see if the Ducks can put them away early)

(15) Michigan @ (18) Oklahoma (here we go: game of the week; I have no idea what to expect from either team, both were pretty soft last year, let's see if either of them are ready to walk it)

2024-25 NBA Final (Preview)

Not much to preview, really. The Thunder have been the best team in the NBA all season long, the Pacers were the 3rd best team in the East and had a strong run through the playoffs, a worthy representative of the Eastern Conference (but no one thinks they're gonna beat OKC). 

The sport media wanted the Knicks to be here instead of the Pacers but, well, the Knicks were overrated and lucky all the way through (I'm sorry, but it's true: the Knicks weren't that fucking good this year!). The Knicks pushed around the Pistons, who just weren't ready to finish games (though I thought the were the better team in all 6 games), and they were lucky enough to watch the Celtics self-destruct (go back and watch the games, dude, the Celtics should've won in 4). Then the Pacers had too much offense for the Knicks to keep up. 

As for the Pacers, they caught the Bucks with injuries (as is the usual for the Bucks) and though the Cavs were arguably the only regular season team to even come close to the Thunder, the Cavs just weren't ready to take the next step (and the Pacers were). The Pacers started slow this season but after the all-star break, they were pretty awesome and their run through the East was well deserved, they were the most complete ready-to-compete team in the Conference.  

The Thunder murdered everyone all year long, then they mauled the Grizzlies (they even tried to even away Game Three and just couldn't manage to lose), then faced their toughest opponent in the Nuggets, who took them to Game Seven, and then pushed aside the Wolves rather easily. So, just to recap: all non-Jokic teams got thoroughly (if casually) destroyed by OKC. 

Right off the bat: I'm going Thunder in 5. I just think they're too good, but they'll probably fall asleep long enough for the Pacers to steal one. 

Game One could be the test. If OKC stomps the Pacers, well, that's probably what this series will be. 

If the Pacers steal a W in OKC, then we've definitely got a Series. 

But if the Pacers compete, keep it close, make OKC sweat, that actually might be the best outcome. 

I'd suggest that the best possible series is something like when the Nuggets beat the Lakers on their way to the championship a few years back: the Nuggets swept the Lakers, but all four games were tight and riveting. A roller coaster of a sweep is probably the most interesting outcome. Why? Well, for the Pacers to win the series, I think something would have to go disastrously wrong for OKC and I don't want to see anyone go out like that. I think the Pacers are good enough to make the Thunder work, but I don't think they're good enough to win four of the next seven games against them. 

So four really tight, compelling, nailbiting games that OKC has to go to their limits to win....that could happen. I think both of these squads are offensively good enough to keep games close, but I think OKC's defense will make a few extra plays that the Pacers won't be able to match. That said, I can totally see a game where neither team plays any defense, a 135-129 kinda game, which could go either way. 

For the Pacers to win, they need to jump out to big leads early on and then hold on to them. Unfortunately, this is not typically how they've been winning in the playoffs so far. Their best wins have been sneaky hanging-around kinda games where they get hot late and steal W's in the 4th. I don't think that's gonna work against the Thunder, who never stop scoring and never stop playing defense. The Pacers need to dominate the 1st quarter to hang with the Thunder. 

The Pacers have a decent chance to steal Game One. If they can surprise the Thunder right away (as the Nuggets did), perhaps they can make a series of this. I'm not trying to say the Pacers can't win, not at all. I was a fan of their run to the final four last year and I was kinda shocked that the started so slow this season, thinking that they would hit the ground running and be a real contender for the #1 seed in the East. They started surprisingly slow, but once they got going, they've been really good for several months now, the Pacers are not a fluke. But I think the West is so much better than the East and the Thunder has performed better against better opponents all year long, I just don't see how that stops now. We'll see.

2025 Champions League

Paris-St. Germaine 5-0 Inter-Milan

Yeah, well, that kinda sucked. Pretty easy to sum this one up: Inter sucked. Inter had no attack, couldn't possess the ball at all, never even came close to being dangerous around the goal and couldn't withstand PSG's constant pressure. Uh, yeah, not much more to it, this game was over quick and it stayed over.

Inter brilliantly handled Bayern Munich and then went to toe-to-toe with Barcelona, so even though I was never quite as impressed Inter as, say, Barca or PSG or Real Madrid, I was impressed with how they kept getting W's. Even though PSG seemed like the much more talented side, I felt like Inter would hang--just because they had been hanging with better teams. But, man, they just got straight smoked in this game, which is, I guess, the proper outcome. 

Kudos to PSG, they were so much better than their opponent, that they looked little bored out there by the end.  

2024-25 NBA Conference Finals (after 3 games)

East

Pacers 138-135 (OT) Knicks

Pacers 114-109 Knicks

Knicks 106-100 Pacers

Game One is an all-timer! The game was fairly even for most of the first 3 quarters, then the Knicks had a run and built a nice lead that they mostly held onto. With about 4 minutes left, the Knicks were 118-104 and this is where I checked out--thankfully I skipped ahead rather than just turning the game off and was able to catch most of the astounding comeback the Pacers had to push the game into OT and steal it. The Knicks just fell asleep, they thought the game was won and they let the Pacers get hot (Aaron Nesmith!) and before they knew it, they were down even though they more or less had the game won. In Game Two, the Pacers were the better team, the Knicks looked sluggish and suddenly the series looked like it might be a walkover. That walkover vibe extended into Game Three, when the Pacers were up by 20 shortly before halftime. Unfortunately, the Pacers forgot to play the rest of the game, and the Knicks slowly but surely chipped away at the lead and overtook them well before the end. The weird wrinkle: I thought the Knicks were a lot more effective on offense with Jalen Brunson on the bench, I wonder what effect that'll have going forward. 

I thought the Pacers would win in 7 (yeah, in New York), then I figured the Pacers had a good shot at a sweep. Now I'm not sure what's going on. The Pacers should take Game Four, putting them up 3-1 heading back to NYC, if they don't then this series is still up in the air. As it is, the Pacers are the better team, the more complete team (though their offense gets dangerously stagnant at times) and should still win. Furthermore, the Knicks (I am convinced!) are not as good as they've gotten so far and in real danger of total collapse; but....they are wily and weird and I wouldn't want to fuck with them. The Pacers really missed a golden opportunity in Game Three, and now this hand grenade might go off in their hands. I still like the Pacers--hell, I like them in 5! But, we'll see.

West

Wolves 88-114 Thunder

Wolves 103-118 Thunder 

Thunder 101-143 Wolves

The first two games were similar: the two squads were evenly matched until about halfway through the 3rd quarter, when the Wolves got tight, the Thunder got loose and suddenly it was over. The Thunder's smothering defense is vastly more effective when they have the lead, so when they get up by double digits in the 4th quarter, the game is pretty much over. 

But Game Three showed the flip side of the Thunder: the Wolves rocked them early on and the Thunder couldn't get back into the game and it snowballed out of control on them and this was over quick. The Wolves are a good team, they can hang with the Thunder, but the first two games are probably more indicative of what this series is, Game Three was a nice biscuit for the Wolves but I wouldn't count on a drubbing like that again. Indeed, I think the Thunder have a drubbing game still left in them, so the Wolves better take Game Four and even up this series or it could get ugly for them. 

I had the Thunder in 6 (yeah, in Minneapolis) and I think I'll stick with that. But I like the Wolves to take Game Four tonight and push the Thunder back on their heels. From there, I like the Thunder to pull it together and get it done. We'll see. 

2024-25 NHL Conference Finals (after 3 games)

East

Panthers 5-2 Hurricanes

Panthers 5-0 Hurricanes

Hurricanes 2-6 Panthers

Yawn. This series was over almost instantly, the Panthers are better at both ends and in every way than the Hurricanes, who are struggling to even look competitive. I'd be kinda shocked if this isn't over in 4. 

West

Oilers 3-6 Stars

Oilers 3-0 Stars

Stars 1-6 Oilers

In Game One, the Oilers were up 3-1 going into the 3rd period. Out of the blue, the Stars dominated the shit out of the Oilers for 20 minutes and easily took Game One. Other than the 3rd period of Game One, the Oilers have completely controlled this series, again, better at both ends than their hapless opponent. They did give away a game, so this one will be going 5 games instead of 4, but this probably should've been a sweep. 

We are headed to a rematch of last year's Final, which was a wild series with each team running 3 straight before the Oilers kinda collapsing in Game Seven. I suspect this year's series will be tighter but should still go 7 games. 

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (2nd round after 4 games)

East

Cavs 126-104 Pacers

Cavs 109-129 Pacers

After limping through the first 2 games, the Cavs finally showed up for Game Three and convincingly thumped the Pacers on their own home floor. Then for Game Four, the Cavs didn't show up at all--the score is not indicative of the level of blow out, actually the Cavs balled out in the 4th quarter just to get it to a 20-point loss. The Pacers have surged to a dominant 3-1 lead in the series, they are in command. Donovan Mitchell left the game after halftime but I believe he'll be back for Game Five but even still the Cavs just look bewildered out there. Darius Garland is playing but doesn't look fully healthy and though the rest of the Cavs are ready to play, they have yet to look like they even want to be here. I'm not shocked the Pacers are hanging with the Cavs but I am shocked at how out of it the Cavs look so far. Still a chance they pull it together and come all the way back, but I seriously doubt it. I kinda like the Pacers to win Game Five--and I'd definitely take them to win Game Six back in Indy. 

Celtics 115-93 Knicks 

Celtics 113-121 Knicks

The Celtics have been playing a dangerous game letting the first two games get away from them--even though they were clearly obviously undoubtedly the better team! They finally played all the way to the end in Game Three and took it easily. Then disaster struck: in Game Four Jaysun Tatum (who had been balling out) fell over awkwardly, rolled around in pain and was carted off in a wheelchair; haven't seen the reports yet but the way he went down looked like the worst nightmare: torn Achilles (we'll see).  Game Four was a more even contest but the Knicks were much better after halftime and went on a tear in the 4th quarter to seal it. The Knicks are up 3-1 in the 2nd round and this is the first game where they actually looked like the superior team this playoffs (yeah, I said it before and I still believe: the Pistons were better than the Knicks in all 6 games of the 1st round and somehow managed to lose four of them). The Celtics without Tatum are not gonna be able to win three straight on the Knicks--especially considering they already outplayed the Knicks in three straight games and gave away two of them! Jaylin Brown and Kristaps Porzingis have not been good this post-season, so unless those two really come to play, then the Celtics will not be moving on. 

So pretty much all season long, I thought the Celtics and the Cavs would be dueling in the Eastern Conference Finals but it does not look like that's gonna happen. Looking like a rematch of last year's Knick-Pacer quarterfinal, a series I rather enjoyed. 

West

Thunder 104-113 (OT) Nuggets

Thunder 92-87 Nuggets

I actually missed Game Three of this series, an overtime thriller that seemed by most all accounts to be an instant classic. I did, however, catch Game Four which was a sludgy slog of a game where everyone looked beat before the game even started and no one was able to rise above the non-stop defense. The series is even now but I still think the Thunder are the better team, the deeper team, and I think their defensive game plan has finally caught up to Nikola Jokic. Aaron Gordon is playing his ass off, Christian Braun is all hustle and Jamal Murray has moments, but the Nuggets haven't got much out of Michael Porter Jr (he's obviously hurt) and the minutes they're getting from Russell Westbrook are the epitome of two-steps-forward-one-step-back. The Thunder aren't exactly dominating, Jokic is still a human speed bump, but I do think they're the better team and this series is toughening them up before our eyes. My one concern: it feels like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is looking to pass a little more than he should, he's deferring when I think he needs to be looking to score more, but maybe I'm just seeing things. Jaylin Williams is having a nice--not great--series, Chet Holgren is hustling but not dominating, the supporting cast is holding on but not excelling and yet I think the Thunder are good and getting better and when they finally get away from Jokic, I think they might blow up. I still like the Thunder to win the series, wouldn't be surprised if they took the next two games.

Wolves 102-97 Warriors

Wolves 117-110 Warriors

I think the Wolves are better than the Warriors anyway, but once you remove Steph Curry from the Warrior lineup, it's really not even much of a contest any more. Jimmy Butler is trying, but his one-man-wrecking-crew game isn't as effective in the West as it was in the East and Draymond Green's antics are looking more and more desperate (remember when Dirk Diggler was all coked out of his mind and his life fell apart in the last half of Boogie Nights? Yeah, something like that except this is less fun to watch). Anthony Edwards is casually brilliant, Rudy Gobert looks like a real stopper in the middle again, Julius Randle is playing his way to a big free agent signing this summer and the rest of that cast is pitching in nicely. I think this will be over in 5, then the Wolves get to relax as OKC and Denver keep slugging. 

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (2nd round after 2 games)

East

Pacers 121-112 Cavs

Pacers 120-119 Cavs

The Cavs are in trouble! The Pacers flat out controlled Game One and then made crazy plays down the stretch to steal Game Two. If the Cavs are going to be without Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and/or Deandre Hunter then this series is probably already a wrap. I thought the Pacers would give the Cavs a good run, they're a pretty similar team actually and though I thought the Cavs are better and that they would prevail, these key injuries might be too much to overcome. If the Cavs could've held on Game Two, then I still would've favored them--even with the injuries--but dropping two home games AND a pile of injuries....I gotta go Pacers from here. Indeed, this might be quick.

Knicks 108-105 (OT) Celtics

Knicks 91-90 Celtics

The Celtics on the other hand....man, if they just get average shooting from here on out, I still think they're better than the Knicks and should still win 4 of the next 5 games, You wanna say the Knicks rose up and made big plays but....nah, not really, the Celtics are just getting out of their offense for whatever reason and if they stay in this funk, they're toast. In Game One, after halftime, the Celtics just started chucking 3'd instead of plodding into a proper offensive set; if you're hitting, that's fine, you're gonna win by 30--but if not, you're gonna lose. And then they did it again in Game Two! No idea what the Celtics are doing, but they still have more talent and a better game plan, when they stick to it. This series is up in the air, but I still gotta go with the Celtics in 7.

West

Nuggets 121-119 Thunder

Nuggets 106-149 Thunder

The Thunder have not played a lot of close games this season, they've been clubbing people all year long and haven't really had to dig down and finish games. They should've won Game One, but the Nuggets stayed true, worked hard, got lucky and stole it. Game Two, on the other hand, the Thunder did not mess around. But entering the 4th quarter with a 41-point lead and Jokic fouled out, even I was like, okay, you can take the foot off the gas now. The Thunder are better, deeper and the Nuggets are just overmatched. But they still have Jokic, so the Thunder better buckle down. I think they will. I'll still take the Thunder in 5.

Warriors 99-88 Wolves

Warriors 93-117 Wolves

In Game One, I thought the Wolves Jedi mind-tricked themselves. The Warriors junked up the game and instead of taking control of the game, the Wolves acted as if the sludge fest was somehow to their advantage. It was not. I think they've learned their lesson (we'll see), and since Steph Cutty has suffered a hamstring injury, the Wolves should be the huge fave now. Jimmy Butler can take over but this really isn't team (yet), so I don't see Butler being enough to get past the Wolves. If the Wolves play the game, stick with their tenacious D and shoot reasonably well, they are the better team and should advance. The Warriors will hang, but I like the Wolves in 7.

2025 Champions League (semifinals)

Arsenal 0-1 Paris St-Germain

Paris St-Germain 2-1 Arsenal

Arsenal was on fire earlier in this tournament, but PSG cooled them off right quick. In two games, Arsenal's attack was non-existent, only a single late goal on their tally sheet. PSG was the better team on both sides, controlled the ball, controlled the tempo and rather easily won both of these matches. Good games but PSG was the clear better team in both matches. 

Barcelona 3-3 Inter Milan

Inter Milan 4-3 (ET) Barcelona

Whoa! I spent a week telling my soccer-phobic friends that if they were only going to watch one soccer match this year, it should be that first match between Barca and Inter. Now I've got to implore them to watch TWO games this year because that second match was even better! Inter opened the scoring in the 1st leg with a masterful opening rush that started with them getting pushed back to their own goal line, then punting to midfield, connecting on a quick pass, a swift push up the wing, which led to one of the loveliest (cheeky!) backheel goals I've ever seen. So, the first minute of the game pretty much got you ready for a barn burner. The next 219 minutes were pretty good, too! Coming in I thought Barca was the best team in the tournament, but Inter has really impressed me. Inter's attack is strong, their defense is holding up and they ran past the best team, so they are a deserving finalist. 

Final

PSG - Inter Milan

Gonna be a good one. PSG has the star power but Inter just keeps getting it done against top flight competition, so I'm going with Inter.

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (1st round after 4 games)

East

Cavs 124-87 Heat

Cavs 138-83 Heat

Oof! The Cavs are just good, man, the Heat had no chance. I kinda like the Heat's personnel but without a full time playmaker, they've got no straw stirring the drink, so the reasonably talented roster gets no service and can't get anything going. This whole series was a shellacking, a reminder that #1 in the East is waaaaaay better than the play-in teams. The Cavs are relaxing before the Pacers come a-callin'.

Celtics 93-95 Magic 

Celtics 107-98 Magic

The Magic don't have enough scoring to hang in general and without Mo Wagner and Jalen Suggs they don't have the depth on defense either. The Celtics do occasionally fall asleep (the great Roger Federer in his prime used to do that, he won a hell of a lot more than he lost), but the Magic are probably not gonna get another chance to take advantage of that quirk. The Magic can look forward to the fact that their youth is still getting better rather than just older, playoff experience builds calluses. The Celtics are warming up for Knicks, I reckon. 

Knicks 118-116 Pistons 

Knicks 94-93 Pistons

Yeah, I still don't buy the Knicks, but clearly with a 3-1 lead, it's hard to imagine they lose three straight. The Pistons, to my mind, bungled away Games One and Three and fell prey to a late KAT attack (a coupla big 3's down the stretch), but I still think they're the better team. Though he has hardly been consistent, Cade Cunningham has balled out, it is clear that this is his team and I think he's been the best player in this series. I still find the Knicks remarkably underwhelming but I can't see them blowing a 3-1 lead, though I can see the Pistons making them work for it, so there's still some fireworks ahead.

Pacers 101-117 Bucks 

Pacers 129-103 Bucks 

The Bucks had one balls-to-the-wall half (2nd half of Game Three) in them to steal a W, but once Dame went down (Achilles' *sigh*) in Game Four that was the end of any lingering day dream of the Bucks rising up. Yeesh, looking ahead: well, Dame's out for next year, they moved on from Middleton and now they're stuck with Kuzma, probably time for Brook Lopez to retire and what do they have left? Oh my, the cupboard is pretty dang bare. (I'm already dreading the forced Giannis trade talk the chatterers will be forcing on us this summer) The Pacers are the one team in the East that can (maybe) hang with the Cavs and Celtics, so just as well that they're moving on sooner rather than later. I presume they will finish in 5.

West

Thunder 114-108 Grizzlies 

Thunder 117-115 Grizzlies

Ah, man, Ja Morant was still trying to act like the Grizz could've won if only.... dude, it has been a long year, spend a coupla weeks in Cabo, then get back to it and get ready for next year, this year is over and it's just as well, Grizz fans. The Thunder are still killing people, making them play in the 1st round was probably just a waste of time.

Rockets 93-104 Warriors 

Rockets 106-109 Warriors

I'm getting old, but in a backwards way? I prefer youth to the way it used to be. I'm ready for the Rockets to make some noise, instead I'm stuck here pretending like the Warriors still have something in the tank....honestly, it makes my head hurt. Draymond, Steph and Jimmy are expending 110% effort just to fend off a bunch of punks that have never done anything in this league and frankly they're still just getting lucky. They think their old timey savvy is gonna carry them and that shit might work on the Rockets but I don't see it working on anyone else. The Rockets haven't yet shown the maturity to finish off their elders (they keep falling for Draymond's head games) and their offense dries up from time to time, but the Rockets were better than the Warriors all season long and will be better than them next season, too. But for now the oldheads are still bullshitting their way through life and, sorry Rockets, it'll be another year before you get invited to the real party. (That said, I like the Rockets to win Game Five and wouldn't be shocked if they won Game Six--the longer this series goes on, the more miles those old legs have to run, the faster they'll crash out when they reach their limit)

Lakers 104-116 Wolves 

Lakers 113-116 Wolves 

The Wolves managed to take the 3-1 lead by reminding everyone that the Lakers are really just a nice team for now (and their "now" probably would've been better with Anthony Davis), but plan on being a for-real team next year. The Wolves have got no time to lose, so they're balling out as best they can. I think the Wolves are better and with a 3-1 lead I think we can pencil them through to the next round, but I said Lakers in 7 for a reason: they're wily vets and they know how to....get by. Hard to imagine the Wolves don't finish them off soon but now that we've reached the edge, feels like its time to start worrying about the Lakers again. Meh, I'll take Wolves in 5.

Nuggets 83-117 Clippers

Nuggets 101-99 Clippers 

I still believe the Clippers are the better team, they have the better offense, the better defense, the better coach and the better depth. But the Nuggets have a great home court and the greatest player in the world, so its still a series when maybe it should already be over. Okay, I'll stick with the same ol' thing: the Clippers are the better team and at their best Harden and Kawhi make a strangely effective 2-headed monster; that said, their 2-heads aren't exactly crunch time heroes and Jokic is still the best in the world. For now, still the most fun left in this series, but I still gotta lean Clippers in 6.

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (1st round after 2 games)

East

(1) Heat 100-121 Cavs

(2) Heat 112-121 Cavs (didn't watch)

The Cavs are just better than the Heat. I like this Heat roster, I think they'll be much better next year as the new looks coalesces and the Jimmy Butler-tantrums fade into the past. But for now, they're just not as good as the Cavs. I'll take the Heat to win one in Miami. Cavs in 5.

(1) Magic 86-103 Celtics

(2) Magic 100-109 Celtics

The Magic have no offense. Tough squad, a lot of ballers, they play hard and I like the general composition of the roster, but, man, they got nobody to get buckets. I'd give the Magic a gentleman's sweep but I just don't think the scoring to take even a single game.  

If I were the Celtics, I'd give Tatum another night off in Game Three and KP the night off in Game Four. Their offense might scuffle a bit, but I doubt the Magic would outscore them in either contest. Celtics in 4.

(1) Pistons 112-123 Knicks

(2) Pistons 100-94 Knicks

The Pistons had Game One in hand when they went into a monumental collapse, the Knicks had a 21-0 run and stole the game. Knicks fan rejoice, NBA nerds comforted that their presumed outcome came to pass but...let's be honest, folks: the Pistons were the better team and the collapse was their own doing. If the Knicks think they deserved to win, I don't think I agree. And if they think they are the better team, I'm positive I don't agree.

Game Two was much closer to what I think this series is and will be: the Pistons controlled the tempo, scored at will, flustered the Knicks at the defensive end and basically showed how smoke-and-mirrors the Knicks have been all year long. The Pistons are getting hot at the right time and I think the Knicks are riding for a fall.

Its still even enough that it'll go back and forth for a while, but the Pistons are the better team, the more complete team, the team that knows who they are, the team on the rise. Knicks fans are staring down the barrel of a major disappointment. It's happening. Pistons in 6.

(1) Bucks 98-117 Pacers

(2) Bucks 115-123 Pacers (didn't watch)

The Pacers are better than the Bucks. They just are. They're deeper, they're more variable, they've got more scoring, probably even better defense. The Bucks have Giannis but they don't have much else. I like the Bucks to steal one, maybe even two back in Milwaukee--and even then, only if Dame Lillard can really be big time. I'll take Pacers in 5.

West

(1) Grizzlies 80-131 Thunder

(2) Grizzlies 99-118 Thunder

Jeez, that first game was depressing. Out of respect for the Grizzlies organization, I think I'll be skipping the rest of this series. The Thunder are really good, the Grizzlies are in disarray--there's no way this goes 5 games! Thunder in 4 (do we really need two more of these games? I'm ready to say Thunder in 2). 

(1) Warriors 95-85 Rockets

(2) Warriors 94-109 Rockets

Game One of this series was the only one that gave me pause. I thought the Rockets were primed to stomp the shit out of the Warriors, but instantly I saw that these youngsters probably aren't ready to play cohesive winning ball over a bunch of badass oldheads just yet. These two played a coupla weeks ago and the Rockets tooled them, made me feel that the Rockets truly were the better team, the better athletes, the harder workers and that their 2nd place finish was not a fluke. But all it takes is one game of Steph Curry calmly controlling the action and getting his shots while Rockets go whizzing past to make me reevaluate what I thought I knew. 

Adding Jimmy Butler gave the Warriors a new life, a new purpose, and that's super. But I wasn't convinced that they were ready to win it all (of that I am still not convinced). The Rockets are upstarts but they're long, athletic and they bust their asses, and those qualities are still much more impressive to me. They don't have the savvy to simply dismiss a pack of crafty veterans but if Draymond thinks riling up their youth is a good strategy....oh, I don't think agree.

My initial thought was Rockets in 5: they'd dominate the first two games, fall asleep back in SF, then pull it together again and just athleticism their way to two more quick wins. I still think the Rockets win this and the plan is still in place, but I think the Warriors are more savvy than I gave them credit for and are going to will this Rockets squad into a smarter crew (for example, I think the Rockets will be smart enough to not let this go a Game Seven). I'll say Rockets in 6.

(1) Wolves 117-95 Lakers

(2) Wolves 85-94 Lakers

My initial thought was that these two are actually pretty evenly matched, this will be a tussle of a series and I was gonna go with Lakers in 7 because...well, they're the Lakers, they have all the luck that Uncle Sam can muster.

I think I still that. The Lakers with 2 months of Luka and just a single full season with Coach Reddick haven't matured just yet, they've got a lot of talent but they're still rough around the edges and they haven't congealed around Luka enough to be truly dangerous (yet). It is possible that they grow into their dangerous selves over the next few weeks but I suspect it'll take a full year for them to be truly ready (so....next year, Laker fans). 

As for the Wolves, they're good but strangely disappointing and yet it feels like they're coming together at the right time. The way they dominated Game One was intriguing and the weird adjustments the Lakers made to take back Game Two suggest that the Lakers know the Wolves are better. But the Wolves were confused by weird zone defense looks and probably a little satisfied with the victory in Game One, so they let Game Two get away from them.

I do think the Wolves are the better team and they should win. But I'll stick with Lakers in 7 because they're the Lakers and they'll figure it out. 

(1) Clippers 110-112 (OT) Nuggets

(2) Clippers 105-102 Nuggets

I thought the Nuggets got lucky in Game One. They were able to sneak back into it late by forcing James Harden to be a closer (he is not a closer) and reminding Kawhi that he is rusty and not ready to be a closer yet either. And then they got lucky knocking down shots in OT. But it was clear to me: the Clippers are the better team and should be up 2-0 heading back to LA.

Worth repeating, though: Harden is not a closer and Kawhi is probably not ready to do much swashbuckling in the 4th quarter. The key for the Clippers is to build big leads and hold them. Frankly, I think they can and I think they will. Great as Jokic is, he can't do it alone and increasingly he looks more and more alone out there. 

Nuggets in 6

2024-25 NBA Regular Season Awards

MVP

Last year I developed a new algorithm for ranking NBA performances. I ended up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) as MVP and that felt right to me, so I thought I'd run back the method this year, too. Well, not so good. 

My first calculation ended up with Shai winning again this year. Okay, not controversial. But this year the method put Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) 3rd behind James Harden (Clippers). I did not see this coming, it kinda freaked me out as Harden is a player I have barely paid attention to this season (though, to be fair, I didn't watch nearly as much NBA as I usually do). 

So I did a second calculation and now Shai had slipped to 2nd place...behind Anthony Edwards (Wolves)! So in a year when the debate was between Shai (Stefan Edberg-level elegance and awesomness leading his batch of youngsters to easily the best record in the league) or Jokic (dragging his band of sad sacks into the playoffs like Homer Simpson with his Stone of Shame), but even though the Clippers finished strong, I never thought twice about Harden or Edwards for MVP. But what are the algorithms for except to to find the best players? Last year the algorithm told me that Shai, Jokic and Giannis were the three best players and I heartily agreed. This year, the algorithms spit out something I did not expect or understand and it made me question the science (heaven forbid!). 

So I did what all good scientists do: I kept changing the criteria until I got what I wanted:

MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

The rest of my top five: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Lebron James (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics). (Okay, well, Lebron kinda came out of nowhere but he is still a hell of a player) 

On my own I probably would've taken Shai over Jokic, because I think Shai has been exciting, thorough and completely in charge from day one on a team that just murdered people all year long. For the last several years I thought Jokic and Giannis were the two best players in the league, I think it is safe to say that SGA has joined them. I was never so committed to any of the others that the snoots wanted to put with Jokic and Giannis (Embiid, for example, was never better than top 3--if that!--IMHO), but with Shai we have a master PG, just blossoming into his prime, that gets W's in addition to buckets; meanwhile we see the steady erosion of the supporting casts around Jokic and Giannis.  

But the numbers made it clear to me that Jokic has virtually no help whereas SGA has a great roster--arguably the top-to-bottom best in the league. But another stat really dumbfounded me: Jokic led the league with 34 triple-doubles in 70 games, just about half of his games played were triple-doubles, while SGA had zero. Now, okay, SGA has better teammates, there's more passing and scoring going on than just SGA, so it makes sense that he wouldn't get a lot of triple-doubles because he just doesn't need to the way Jokic needs to carry his team; but....damn, man, SGA didn't have one? In 76 games he didn't have one triple-double! On one of the greatest scoring teams of all time and a great defensive team, he didn't have one single game where he hit double digits in three different stats? His teammate Jaylin Williams, had 3 triple-doubles, but SGA had none? Somehow this only seems possible if he were on a team that absolutely did not need their best player to ever go truly above himself in any single game--while Jokic had to do that in almost half of his games. I dunno, man, something about the fact that SGA had fewer triple-doubles this season than Bilal Coulibaly (Wizards) or Jalen Pickett (Nuggets), automatically makes me feel good about putting Jokic ahead of him.  

But let's remember: according to my method of analysis James Harden, Lebron James and Anthony Edwards are clear candidates for 1st Team All-NBA, if not for MVP. Good players, but the numbers put them higher than my own personal eyeballs did, which makes me reconsider the importance of numbers. Oh well. (Science is lumpier than Science itself realizes)  

All-NBA

1st

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Lebron James (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics)

2nd

Cade Cunningham (Pistons), James Harden (Clippers), Tyrese Halliburton (Pacers), Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Alperen Sengun (Rockets)

3rd

Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks), Tyler Herro (Heat), Ivica Zubac (Clippers), Devin Booker (Suns), Donovan Mitchell (Cavs)

All-Rookie

1st

Stephon Castle (Spurs), Bub Carrington (Wizards), Alex Sarr (Wizards), Zacharrie Risacher (Hawks), Jaylen Wells (Grizzlies)

2nd 

Yves Missi (Pelicans), Isaih Collier (Jazz), Kyshawn George (Wizards), Kyle Filipowski (Jazz), Matas Buzelis (Bulls)

Looks good to me. Castle is nice, a good strong supporting cast member for the Wemby Show. Carrington, Sarr are in the right spot: Bub has game and is fun to watch, Sarr is a nice all-around big man, both in a spot where expectations are low, so they're free to just play. I like Risacher, doesn't look like a super star but he's kinda good at everything, should get better at a lot of stuff, might could be a for-real #2 for a for-real star (is that Trae Young? Could it be, say, Zion?). Wells is a baller, get well soon. Missi is a good rim protecting rebounder, a nice player. Collier, Georgie and Filipowski should have earned more playing time, we'll see what they become. I kinda love Buzelis, that guy'll start next year.   

And a few other rooks I liked: Dalton Knecht (Lakers), Zach Edey (Grizzlies), Ke'lel Ware (Heat), Donovan Clingan (Blazers), and I'm still convinced Reed Sheppard (Rockets) will be good, if he's ever allowed to play, and Ron Holland (Pistons) was one of my favorites to watch all year long. 

That said, for ROY, I'm going off the board:

Rookie of the Year: Jared McCain (Sixers)

ROY for me is a forward-looking award (who is the best looking prospect going forward) not a backward-looking award (who had the BEST rookie season). McCain only played 23 games but in his limited look, he struck me as the highest potential growth player going forward. He was in control of the ball and had major league-level athletic prowess; in short, he has the physical tools to survive and the talent to be really good. I can't/won't make the argument he had the best rookie season, obviously he didn't, but who cares? Which rookie do I want next year? I'd take McCain. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Yeah, this happens every year: I use basic counting metrics for my end of year awards and clearly in DPOY, these metrics are too basic to be useful. Its going to drive the nerds crazy but--and not for the first time--I'll go with Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) for Defensive Player of the Year. 

Next up: Amen Thompson (Rockets), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

As a life long baseball lover, I've long known that defensive stats just don't paint the proper picture. Offense is a clear accounting, but defense (re: the counter of offense) is much more elusive to capture, more useful as a team stat rather than an individual, and the great defenders are doing more than the statistics can calculate. But I'm still dubious of more complicated metrics, I know I'm supposed to sit in awe of number nerds but numbers in and of themselves aren't meaningful at all; if you start giving too much narrative necessity to numbers then you're just fooling yourself. 

Okay, so I suck at DPOY.  I had James Harden (Clippers) 4th!

6th Man: Naz Reid (Wolves)

My incredibly unscientific 1st draft left me with: Naz Reid (Wolves) as the strong 1st place. Peyton Pritchard (Celtics), Malik Beasley (Pistons) next, with Spencer Dinwiddie (Mavs) and Keldon Johnson (Spurs) rounding out the top 5. (*) Basically no matter how you slice it, Reid, Pritchard and Beasley were the top three in pretty much every stat, so pick your favorite. I think there are good arguments for all three and no argument that really means more than any other. All three were strong 2nd string contributors to good teams, all three had their role within their squad. So I'll go with Reid, just because nobody else is.

Most Improved

I've never done this one in the past because it seems rather than just picking one, there should be multiple winners based on draft class or even by age. I hadn't thought to even do this (I normally don't), but I thought as I peruse the end of year stats, some candidates might emerge. But I should say: I don't feel like going back to last year's stats so the ones that stand out to me will simply be dudes that surprised me with their performance, whether outsized or idiosyncratic, rather than who actually showed some statistical improvement.  We'll see.

James Harden (Clippers). Yup, he was waaaaaay better than I was expecting because I wasn't expecting much. But they were better than I thought they'd be and looking kinda dangerous going into the post-season and Harden's old timey efficiency is the main reason. A damn good season for Harden.

Tyler Herro (Heat). Basically my algorithm susses out the dudes that played a lot and actually did stuff while they played. And Herro played a lot and did a lot for his team. And though the Heat were frustrating this year (as they usually are), that doesn't hide the fact that Herro was pretty damn good this year. He scored efficiently, made plays for others, played good D and just generally handled himself well out there. I always liked Herro but I think he's become even better than I thought he'd be and I'm kinda curious to see what a full year of that current lineup could look like (they could be hitting an unusual number of "up" years from their roster, we'll see next year).

Jalen Williams (Thunder). Williams was awesome last year, surely a Most Improved candidate in 2024. But he successfully stepped up his game for an entire season and even though we knew he was good last year, to stay at that level for another entire year is fucking impressive. To be the reliable 2nd banana on the best team in the league is frankly even better than what he suggested in the past.

Amen Thompson (Rockets). Defensive monster! I knew he'd be good, but just watching him actually bust out is so much better than our collective imagination. I hate to be that guy: oh my, he is a disaster on offense! Already one of the greatest defenders I've ever seen--he's Gary Payton and Kevin Garnett put together!--and though he's got pretty good skills with the ball, he has no instinct for scoring, for attacking the basket or for maximizing his teammates, no feel for the offensive side of the ball. In the game of chess, he is demolition derby. Still, though, that defense...the kid is a monster.  

Christian Braun (Nuggets). Top 20 in the league in Minutes Played and of the 143 players (that I consider) eligible for awards, Braun was 6th in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Now, I'll admit I have no idea what that metric is or how it works, but it does suggest (hopefully) that he was "effective" at scoring when asked. He plays more than I thought he would and he's clearly not a disappointment and, well, that's actually kinda better than I thought he'd be. Obviously playing next to Jokic might make anyone look like a Hall of Famer, but I suspect if you suck at basketball, Jokic will make that known with a quickness, so I believe in Braun.

Some names that I passed over: Tyrese Halliburton (Pacers), Ivica Zubac (Clippers), Alperen Sengun (Rockets) busted out last year for me, so I'm not surprised by their success, those dudes are fucking good. Similarly with Cade Cunningham (Pistons), I never lost faith with his past injuries or his crappy teams and coaches, I knew Cade was gonna be good the whole time, not surprised that he's top 15.

Coach of the Year

Coach: Ime Udoka (Rockets)

Next up: Rick Atkinson (Cavs), Mark Daigneault (Thunder), Joe Mazzulo (Celtics)

The Cavs and Celtics were easily the two best teams in the East. The Thunder and Rockets were clearly the two best teams in the West, so those are your top four candidates. The arguments are basically: Mazzulo had to hold last year's excellence in place, Daigneault had to improve on last year's excellence, Atkinson had to whip a good team into a really good team, Udoka had to take a bunch of youngsters and keep them locked in all year. All four have their merits, I just decided Udoka's task was greater than the rest. 

JB Bickerstaff (Pistons) and JJ Reddick (Lakers), I suppose will get some votes, too. But really those top four ought to be everyone's top four. 

Executive of the Year

Obviously the Lakers bringing in Luka Doncic from the Mavs for about half of what he's worth is the best trade anyone has pulled off in eons. But that's a future trade, as for now getting an injured Luka for an all-star level Anthony Davis, does not make the Lakers immediately better. I have no doubt that Luka will be good and the team will figure out how best to serve him but that probably won't result in a deep playoff this season (next season, watch out!). 

My favorite trade of the season was the Spurs getting De'Aaron Fox for a raft of 1st round picks (which aren't really necessary now that they can pair Fox with Wemby for the next several years) and their two worst contracts (Tre Jones and Zach Collins). But, that, too, is a trade for the future, as they put Wemby and Fox out to pasture for the season almost as soon as this trade went down. Again, not so much for this season--but next season, watch out! 

The Warriors bringing in Jimmy Butler revitalized their squad, but they gave up on Dennis Schroder (yeah, I have an irrational soft spot for the guy), Lindy Waters (yeah, a bench warmer, but is that his total worth?), Kyle Anderson (a handy vet to have come playoff time) and Andrew Wiggins (again, I have an irrational soft spot) and, I think, a 1st round pick and swapped 2nd round picks. Yeah, I get that Butler makes them better right now, but the "now" just keeps getting shorter for the Warriors and if this doesn't lead to deep playoff runs over the next 2-3 years then this roster is completely wrecked. I dunno, man, I'm not as big a fan of this deal or of the new-look Warriors as I feel like everybody else is. I think this is a high leverage move that leaves them with no draft capital, a bloated salary cap and super stars that will be long-since maxxed out before their deals mature. We'll see how deep they go this year...do we think this squad will go deeper next year? (Hint: I don't)

The Knicks turned their roster upside down since last year's playoff run to the 2nd round and all the moves seemed good on paper. But in reality, I can't help thinking that they were better off with Randle and DiVincenzo than Towns, they wildly overpaid for Mikael Bridges and Coach Thibs is (and always was!) the wrong coach for this team. In short, I'm just not as into this Knicks team as I feel like I'm supposed to be and I don't see great playoff success awaiting this team. So can I say their GM had a good year?

The Nuggets and Bucks just keep falling down around their central super stars. The Kings are on a treadmill of mediocrity, the Hawks and Bulls don't seem to get better no matter what they do. The Suns were arguably the dumpster fire of the year. The Jazz, Hornets and Wizards have settled into being allergic to success. The Pacers and Magic were both able to be pretty much the same as last year (with pretty much last year's rosters). The Rockets are almost choking to death on all their young talent (will Cam Whitmore or Reed Sheppard ever get to play?). Grizzlies have been a slow motion train wreck for a coupla seasons now. The Nets and Raptors were actually better than they wanted to be (as dubious achievement as there is in all of sports). The Wolves made big moves last summer that had to metabolize.So what front office had the best season? 

I'll go with Executive of the Year: Trent Redden (Clippers)

Since last May, they re-upped Tyronn Lue, a great move, as his feel the in game adjustments is as good as I think I've ever seen, truly in the top handful of coaches in the NBA, good to lock him down.  They low-balled Paul George, forcing him out of town--a great move! They signed Derrick Jones Jr (3yr/$30m), Nicolas Batum (2yr/$9.6m), re-upped James Harden (2yr/$70m), traded Russell Westbrook for Kris Dunn (who became the backbone of the Clippers defense), re-signed Ivica Zubac (3yr/$58.6m), swapped PJ Tucker and Mo Bamba for Patty Mills and Drew Eubanks (addition by subtraction), shipped out Terance Mann and Bones Hyland for Bogdan Bogdanovich and a raft of 2nd round picks, and they picked up Ben Simmons for peanuts to round out the playoff roster. 

Swapping Kevin Porter Jr straight up for Marchon Beauchamp feels like a missed opportunity but hardly a killer. Re-signing Terrence Mann might've been a mistake but they got Bogie and a bunch of 2nd rounders for him instead, so no harm done. Does letting BJ Boston walk away bite them later?

It feels like all of their moves worked this year and they quietly shimmied their way up to 5th in the West behind a resurgence from Kawhi and Harden. Bravo!

(*) Rest of 6th Man top 10: Scottie Pippen Jr (Grizzlies), Aaron Wiggins (Thunder), Nickaell Alexander-Waker (Wolves), Jonas Valanciunis (Wizards/Kings), Royce O'neale (Suns). As you can see the top 3 were way ahead of the rest of the pack.

2025 Champions League (Quarterfinals)

1st Leg

Bayern Munich 1-2 Inter Milan

Wow! I kept waiting for Bayern to take over the game and they just couldn't do it. Inter opened the scoring before halftime with a lovely goal from the top of the box (went with the right foot when it was set up for the left, keeper was froze) and that's when it really became a game. Bayern was able to tie it up late, but again they never established any real dominance of the attack, a puzzling performacne especially at home. And then Inter was able to steal it anyway with a late goal (a hockey goal: just fling it in front of the net, see what happens). Bayern stumbled badly last season as Leverkusen came out of nowhere to rule the Bundesliga, but it felt like the stars were re-aligned and Bayern was ready to make a deep run again. But, I dunno, man, they did not look better than Inter at any point in this match and even tying the score late felt like a desperate move--especially since they couldn't hold the draw. I haven't been blown away by Inter at any point in this tourney but Bayern looks out of sorts and going back home with a lead, I gotta think Inter is going to move on. 

Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid

Wow! Real Madrid doesn't get stunned like this very often, but Arsenal was the better team throughout, dominated possession, had many better scoring chances than Real. Arsenal got on the board with a beautiful direct kick from about 30 yards out--and then doubled the lead with a virtually identical direct kick later on. Then they added a third goal just to pour salt in the wound. I feel bad for the Real keeper, he actually made a number of great saves, but those two direct kicks were just out of reach and the final kick was a brilliant rip that he just couldn't get to. I expect Real to play furious in the return match--but I don't expect them to score 3 times! Gotta figure Arsenal is heading to the semifinals. 

Barcelona 4-0 Borussia Dortmund

Yeah...this was not good for Dortmund. Dortmund couldn't get any attack going at all, Barca dominated all phases of the game and just kept piling on the goals. Man, Yamal and Lewandowski up front feels like a cheat code, like young Magic hooking up with old Kareem. I'd be kinda surprised if Barca lost, even with as well as Arsenal is balling right now. 

Paris St. Germaine 3-1 Aston Villa

Yeah, I thought PSG was the better side throughout.  Aston Villa played a plucky match, took the lead before halftime--but gave it back just a few moments later.  PSG kinda crushed in the 2nd half, it feels like this is the real PSG, too.  

2nd Leg

Aston Villa 3-2 (agg 4-5) Paris St. Germaine

PSG scored right away putting a chill on this match, doubled the lead before halftime and it felt like the rout was on. Then an interesting thing happened: someone woke up Villa and they cooked PSG for the rest of the match but it didn't matter. PSG came out stong, then took the rest of the match off. Made for some furious action--fun game!--but once PSG took an insumountable lead, well, it was insurmountable. 

Borussia Dortmund 3-1 (agg 3-5) Barcelona

Dortmund finished a PK early on, then took a 2-0 lead right after halftime and it felt like we really had something going here. But then an unfortunate own-goal put Barca back in the driver's seat and even tacking on a late goal couldn't move the needle. Dortmund gave it their best but Barca's lead was too much to come back from.  

Inter Milan 2-2 (agg 4-3) Bayern Munich

Inter did virtually nothing in the 1st half of this game, Inter fans must've been pulling their hair out! Then Harry Kane tied up the aggregate just after halftime and it felt like perhaps the tide had turned for Bayern. But Inter took the lead right back, then piled on soon after and suddenly the match felt over. Even when Bayern scored again to get back within striking distance, it still felt like Inter had the game in hand. Inter was the better side in this matchup but Bayern had their moments--and Inter had plenty of shaky moments, too. I didn't come out of this with a great deal of faith in Milan so much as a feeling that Bayern is hollow and soulless right now. 

Real Madrid 1-2 (agg 1-5) Arsenal

Man, Arsenal is on fire. I don't believe they're the best team left, but they're playing as well as anyone in the world right now. Real played hard, attacked well, felt like the better team for stretches of the game, but Arsenal rode their big lead all through the 1st half and added to it right out of halftime. Don't see Real Madrid get toyed with very often but Arsenal controlled Real Madrid for 180 straight minutes. Don't mess with Arsenal.  

Semifinals

Arsenal - Paris St. Germaine

Arsenal is on fire right now, PSG is arguably the most all-round talented squad. My gut says PSG is the more complete team but my eyes tell me Arsenal is killing it right now. Frankly, it's a coin flip.

Barcelona - Inter Milan

I gotta go with Barca, their attack looks as good as anyone and, well, Inter has moments but I don't feel the sustain in their attack right now. Its gonna take a bigger-than-they've-given-so-far kinda effort and I supposed Inter can bring it, but I gotta go with Barcelona, I love that offense.  

2025 Masters

The Rory-coaster!

On Thursday, Justin Rose came out with a -7 and it felt like this was going to be a high (er, well, low) scoring Masters. The weather was set to be beautiful, the greens looked fast, felt like everyone was hitting the fairway and was gonna be getting birdies.  Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg (-4) were hovering but I had my eye on Bryson De Chambeau (-3) as one who looked ready to take off.

On Friday, Rose kinda faded (a piddly -1 for the day), but it felt like bad luck, I didn't give up on him.  Rory McIlroy (-6) was the man of the day and De Chambeau pitched in another -4. Xander Schauffle went -3 and (simply because he's the best in the world right now) felt like he was in the mix.  

On Saturday, Rory shot another -6 and took the commanding lead at -12. Rory has had his meltdowns at Augusta before, but this was the last one he needed to complete the career gand slam and everyone was waiting for either triumph and agony (*popcorn go munch*). De Chambeau had another -3, the only person to shoot under 70 on each of the first three days, quietly playing some damn good golf, it was set up for Bryson to be Rory's real competition.  Aberg bounced back from a disappointing Friday to finish the day at -6. Rose had a disappointing +2, but he was still in the pelaton. Patrick Reed quietly climbed the leader board, and like De Chambeau, playing solid. 

Coming into Sunday: Rory (-12), De Chambeau (-10), Reed, Rose, Lowry (-6), Scheffler, Day, Aberg (-5)

Obviously it was set up for De Chambeau to be the one to make the most of any mistakes Rory laid down. The rest of the pack felt too far behind, I thought Rose, Scheffler and Aberg would linger and maybe get a chance if a catrastrophe broke out, but I didn't have much faith in Reed, Lowry or Day.  

Rory blew it on the first hole! In Tyson-level quickness, De Chambeau has the lead and everyone senses the sky has already fallen. But, not me! I thought that Rory had made his mistake, gotten the yips out of his system and would cruise for the rest of the day. Sure enough, De Chambeau soon faltered, Rory took the lead back and was untouched for the next 10 or so holes. 

Then Rose made a run, Rory stumbled. Rory had a chance to win it on 18 but the putt just slid over the hole and everyone felt the nightmare was real as the two finished tied. But Rory birded the first OT hole and took it and the audience was relieved. The back-9 was riveting throughout: at first because it felt like Rory was going to master the Masters and then because it felt like Rose was gonna steal it. 

I was surprised how bad De Chambeau was--he was not the one I thought would totally yank it on Sunday. 

Reed quietly had a nice tournament (-9, 3rd place), Scheffler (-8, 4th place), too, didn't make a lot of noise but he was hanging around the whole time. 

And as can only happen at the Masters, Sungjae Im, killed it on Sunday, ending up finishing 5th and I don't recall watching him even for a second, not a single highlight. 

I love the Masters and this was the best in a while. I love watching dudes dominate and I love watching a demolition derby on Sunday, either way works for me. This was a mix of both: Rory and Rose killed it and yet neither were strong enough to hold back the uncertainty. A good one. 

2025 NCAA Final

Sweet Sixteen

Maryland 71-87 Florida

Not a shock. Maryland had some talent but I never thought they were a particularly cohesive crew. 

Arizona 93-100 Duke

Duke shot well, surprised the score was this close actually. 

Brigham Young 88-113 Alabama

I thought BYU had good upset potential in this game, but, man, Alabama shot the lights out early on and just kept the scoring too furious for BYU to keep up. If Alabama had played like this throughout, they would've won it all. 

Arkansas 83-85 (OT) Texas Tech

I didn't see this game but just watching the score tick by throughout, it feels like Arkansas worked pretty hard to lose this game. It even felt like they were gonna come back in OT and managed to gack it up anyway. Too bad, I really thought Arkansas had the array of talent needed to pull off some shockers. 

Michigan 65-78 Auburn

Michigan's offense was just too sludge-y to hang with Auburn.

Purdue 60-62 Houston

Purdue was the veteran squad, the defending runner-up, that everyone thought had upset potential. Houston is typically not an offenseive dynamo, indeed their strengths are similar to Purdue. I guess that's why this game went so deep. But Cougars got the W. 

Mississippi 70-73 Michigan State

Ole Miss was looking good early on, but they just couldn't sustain their offense and the Spartans slowly but surely took the lead and made it stand up.

Kentucky 65-78 Tennessee

UK was out of this game early, just couldn't get any offense going at all. The Vols were nice, certainly better, but the Cats had plenty of chances to get back in and just couldn't get buckets to hang. I was struck that all the curls, picks and movement that they employed so effectively against Illinois were not used here. Why not? Oh well. The Vols came to play and they played some rugged defense early on and established a clear lead early that they were able to ride out.  

Elite Eight

Texas Tech 79-84 Florida

Tech hung tough, put it on Florida but the Gators got buckets late and Walter Clayton was the hero. Good game, Tech was the better team for the most part but the Gators found another gear late and stole it. 

Alabama 65-85 Duke

Wow! I thought Alabama was one of the better teams this season and I thought they'd be a serious roadblock for Duke, but, man, Duke just pummeled them. Everyone was hitting shots and once the run began, the Tide got buried pronto and Duke cruised to the end. This was a towering performance by Duke--this is the moment where I just assumed Duke would win it all. 

Tennessee 50-69 Houston

Not surprised by the result, I figured Houston would get past whoever they faced here, but they suffocated the Vols early and this game was long over by halftime. The Vols were good this year, perhaps a little overhyped, and while I didn't think they'd win, I didn't figure they'd get stomped in this manner. A dominant performance by the Cougars.

Michigan State 64-70 Auburn

The Spartans put up a game effort but Auburn was better throughout and finished strong. Michigan State kept it close but I really felt like this game wanted to be a blowout. 

Final Four (all four #1 seeds for the first time since 2008; hardly any stunning upsets this year but it left the best of the best teams facing off at the end--turns out those are the best tourneys!)

Florida 79-73 Auburn

Auburn looked like the better team in the 1st half and built up a 12-point lead early in the 2nd half and it kinda felt like it was over. Then....Auburn did absolutely nothing from that point on and Florida was able to blast right through them. I thought Auburn was the single best team all season long (apologies to Duke, Houston and Florida) and the first 25 minutes or so of this game bore that out; but, then the scoring just completely stopped, Johni Broom never showed up, the hustle plays weren't effective any more and they spun their wheels badly down the stretch. Florida had been overcoming deficits all through the tourney, winning games late, so not a shock to see the Gators getting it done. But the Auburn collapse was so total, so complete that it made me wonder what I saw in them all year long.  

Houston 70-67 Duke

All year long Houston's MO was a team that just grinds opponents down with intense D, superior rebounding and a never-quit attitude. Duke had a nice lead at halftime and pretty much dominated the game for about 30 minutes. Then the Dukies went cold as ice and Houston just kept making plays. The final two minutes were a slow motion horror show for Duke fans as Houston just kept getting bucket after bucket, big steals, all the rebounds, a few lucky calls (*), and when the clock ran out, Houston had the lead. One of the most mystifying conclusions I've ever seen--but, then again, when Kentucky beat Duke early in the season, I remember being similarly shocked, since it never occurred to me that Duke was gonna lose. Duke was arguably the best team all year long but the ACC was so soft this year and it is worth noting that 2 of their losses (Kentucky, Kansas) were the high profile games that they just couldn't finish, so....maybe this fate was in the cards all along for the Blue Devils.  

Final

Florida 65-63 Houston

The Gators were able to do to the Cougars what Houston had just done to Duke. Well, sorta: whereas Duke snoozed through the last 10 minutes of the game thinking that their lead was good enough, here the Cougars just ran out of gas late and couldn't get buckets. Duke kinda stopped playing but Houston was just ineffective. Houston looked like the better team for most the game and when they hit an 8-point lead early in the 2nd half it felt like too much for the Gators to overcome--especially considering how little Walter Clayton had done up to that point. But Clayton got hot enough, Houston scuffled and the Gators made the plays down the stretch to steal it late--giving Houston a taste of their own medicine. Great W for the Gators, tough L for the Cougars, but the Cougars will be back next season, whereas I'm not sure about any of the rest of the Elite Eight.  

(*) Some will cite the over the back foul on Cooper Flagg in the final minute, but go back at look at the play. Houston got the rebound and had the lead with no shot clock remaining, thus a foul was actually the right move at that moment anyway. You may not have liked the call but it was cerainly not in and of itself a killer mistake or controversy.  

2025 NCAA Tournament (Sweet 16)

East

(6) BYU - (2) Alabama

(4) Arizona - (1) Duke

Duke came in as the #1 team in the land with the #1 NBA prospect (Cooper Flagg) and looked poised to do some damage. But they're not invincible, when the chips are down they rely a little too much on Flagg and the ACC was truly horrendous this year, so as good as they are, Duke is no guarantee to take it all. I didn't much care for Arizona this season, but they've got some veterans who should keep them in the game. Duke breezed through the last two rounds by building big leads and suffocating their opponents. If Arizona can keep pace with them early, they can hang with them late. But I think Duke is the better team and should advance. 

BYU was one of my darlings coming in, I just like the way they play and they're an unassuming batch of fellows, so when they get hot from the field or get their pressing defense going, I think they drive teams in shell shock. I like Alabama, I thought one of the best squads all season long. But outside of Ole Miss (still alive, by the way), they haven't played anyone quite like BYU. Alabama is the better team and should navigate this minefield, but I think BYU has a great shot at an upset here. 

Can BYU then go on to beat Duke? Again, if they can keep pace on the scoreboard, then yeah they absolutely can. Gotta go with Duke out of this bracket (but BYU is tantalizing). 

West

(4) Maryland - (1) Florida

(10) Arkansas - (3) Texas Tech

Florida is on a killer streak right now but I never really bought into them this season, was puzzled that so many thought of the Gators as the fave. The fact that they struggled mightily against a feisty but overmatched UConn side confirmed my thoughts that Florida is bit on the overhyped side. Maryland has had a nice season and seems to be most dangerous (and paradoxically most in danger) at the buzzer. If Florida comes out shooting well, they may roll right over the Terps, but if not, Maryland can absolutely steal this game. 

Arkansas! Not a gimmick, they are for real. Forget about their disappointing SEC play this year, this team is deep, loaded with veterans and prospects and their two-headed monster (Boogie Fland, DJ Wagner) give them plenty of attack. Make no mistake: Arkansas is the best of the four remaining teams in this bracket and playing their best basketball of the season.

I'll take Arkansas to win their next two games and book passage to the Final 4. 

South

(6) Mississippi - (2) Michigan State

(5) Michigan - (1) Auburn

Michigan State is nice but they flounder around instead of just finishing teams off and Ole Miss might be just the pesky foe they fear most. I do think the Spartans are better but will the play better on this night? Not sure. 

I think Auburn is the best team in the country. I think Michigan has trouble scoring in their half court set. I think this one is all Auburn.

And I'll take Auburn to finish the other side, too. 

Midwest

(3) Kentucky - (2) Tennessee

(4) Purdue - (1) Houston

Kentucky has already beaten the Vols twice this season and history shows that typically the 2-time winner wins the 3rd match, as well. The Vols are nice but they get a little hyper against the Wildcats, if they can shoot well and keep their pacing, they probably are the better team. But I'll go ahead and take the Wildcats to keep moving on. They're playing their best basketball right now and while this is a ragtag kinda squad, they've been strong against UT for a while now. 

Houston is the one flying under the radar.  All they do is win. I think they'll dispatch Purdue without much trouble and I think they'll grind down whichever SEC opponent they get on the other side. 

Informal ranking of the remaining teams:

1-4 - Auburn, Houston, Duke, Arkansas

5-8 - Alabama, BYU, Kentucky, Tennessee, 

9-12 - Florida, Michigan State, Mississippi, Maryland

13-16 - Texas Tech, Michigan, Arizona, Purdue