I've developed a new way of analyzing player stats. This may or may not be fruitful....but it is new to me, so I dig it. And I dig it because while broadly it seemed in line with eye-test observations, in the details there was some delineation that I had not expected and that I found quite interesting. So during the All-Star break (or as I call it "The Week Without Basketball"), I thought I'd give a full look to the award candidates so far.
MVP
Tier 1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks)
I assumed I would end up with Giannis first and Shai in my top five, but Shai's weakness is rebounding (not a big deal for a playmaking PG), while Gianni's weakness is Assist:turnover, which is a bit distressing for the guy that has the ball as much as he does. Otherwise, they were both awesome at everything--awesomer than everyone else at everything. So, yeah, I'm taking Shai over Giannis for now.
Tier 2: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Luka Doncic (Mavs)
At first I had Luka ahead of Jokic but after further narrowing, Jokic squeezed back ahead of Luka. They're both having great years but the Nuggets are perceived as coasting while Luka is perceived as raising his game. The fact that they're both at a similar rarified level is not a surprise.
Tier 3: Anthony Davis (Lakers), Jalen Brunson (Knicks)
Davis hasn't missed time and--no surprise--his numbers are way up (that is to say, back where they belong). You think that alone would make the Lakers more formidable but the West is strong this year. Brunson is the man in the Garden, doing everything well and a pleasure to watch to boot. Great season, on the edge of MVP consideration to me, surely gonna be All-Pro.
Tier 4: Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), DeMar DeRozan (Bulls), Domantas Sabonis (Kings), Kevin Durant (Suns), Paolo Banchero (Magic), LeBron James (Lakers), Trae Young (Hawks)
Edwards has begun to take the next step but I think he can still get a lot better. He gets buckets but I think he can still be a better defender and playmaker and get even more efficient while doing it. He's an amazing athlete and he has no bad habits as a basketball player and his ascent is going to be mighty--but I think next season will likely be even mightier! His team has jumped a notch along with him and the Wolves are well on their way to the #1 seed in the West. Keep an eye on Edwards: he can win the MVP this year but he's already my odds-on fave for next year.
Tatum is in that place of his career where he casually balls out on most nights but can crank it up when he feels the need. The team around him is well designed to give him the latitude to pick and choose as he needs night in and night out. That said, I don't see Tatum as a serious MVP candidate because I don't think he'll need to take a step up for the rest of this season, his team is too good and the rest of the east is too soft.
DeRozan is a solid vet putting up numbers on a so-so squad. Not a real candidate but, hey, why didn't more teams kick the tires on bringing him over at the deadline (I'm looking at you, Sixers and Lakers).
Sabonis is a really quite a nice player and I wonder if anyone notices. He went down hard in the playoffs last year (though I'd blame Fox's broken finger) and perhaps that's the impression that the casual NBA fan has of Sabonis, but he's better than that. I don't see him winning the MVP unless the Kings make a serious run into the top 3 in the West (possible but not likely).
I caught an early season Suns game where basically everyone was injured but Durant and he was all by himself out there doing it all on both ends. I feel like he's contributing more on defense (out of necessity) than he has in ages and it is bringing his game to life. I don't see the Suns climbing higher than 5th in the West--and if they do it'll be because of the resurgence of Booker and/or Beal, so as good as he's playing this season, I don't see Durant as a real MVP candidate.
Banchero is doing some heavy lifting in Orlando. But he's not really in MVP talk (check in again next year).
Lebron is still Lebron, man. He's not the dominant force he used to be but he's still a hell of a player and a presence. But I'd say the Lakers go as far as AD carries them, so I don't see Lebron winning the MVP.
Trae Young is putting up nice numbers in Atlanta but the Hawks are still only so-so and as dominant as Trae is, you would have expected him to mold the team to his liking more than he has. This team is headed for a tumultuous off-season and no matter how good Trae's numbers are, I'd be shocked to see him getting any real MVP consideration unless the Hawks rocket up the stadings.
Tier 5: De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Scottie Barnes (Raptors), Damian Lillard (Bucks), Donovan Mitchell (Cavs)
Fox, like his teammate Sabonis, is a helluva player that doesn't get enough love--but they gotta do something in the playoffs to get the notice and they have yet to do that. Unless the Kings make a serious run in the 2nd half of the season, I don't see either of them getting much MVP consideration--and even then, they probably need a playoff run to get them into next year's conversation.
Barnes was one that jumped out at me--man, he puts up pretty good numbers in Toronto. And now that they've moved on from Siakim and Anunoby, I expect Barnes's numbers to steady up for a while. But that team is not worthy of MVP talk, so maybe next year.
Lillard's defense is still sorry as always and his FG% has been off this season, but you know what? The rest of his numbers are still pretty good. The Bucks this year have the widest variance of any team I can remember--they can look like the obvious faves in the East on one night and then get drubbed by a barely mediocre squad the next night--and still look like pretty much the same team. This is a team built on out-shooting everyone rather than playing defense and that'll make them a good night/bad night kinda team. They could still pull it together in playoffs, but I don't see Lillard getting any MVP votes this year.
Mitchell led a lightning charge of the Cavs into the break and while Mitchell's numbers are not at the top of the class, if he can keep the Cavs winning though the 2nd half then he might be worthy of some MVP votes. Mitchell is still on the could be list.
Tier 6: Devin Booker (Suns), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers)
I don't see Booker being in the MVP talk because even is he does lead a 2nd half resurgence, that will call attention to how boss Durant was in the 1st half.
If Maxey can keep the Sixers afloat while Embiid convalesces, he'll be worthy of some consideration--but that's a big if. I like Maxey, interesting to see how similar he is to Booker, actually, but to get votes in this race, he'd have to bring some serious magic.
Tier 7: Steph Curry (Warriors), Karl-Anthony Towns (Wolves)
Shocked that Steph isn't higher! Add in that once you get past the 4th tier, it becomes ever more subjective--there are others that I left out of consideration (Tyrese Halliburton, Cade Cunningham, Alperen Sengun, Jaylen Brown, etc.) that might rival this group. Steph is still fun to watch and the Warriors have gotten better lately, but I'd say it's the emergence of Kuminga and the re-invention of Draymond that has made the difference there. But if the Warriors make a run, Steph will be the one to get the accolades.
Towns is nice but the Wolves are Edwards's team at this point.
So as for as MVP goes I'd say there is a clear top 4 (Shai, Giannis, Luka, Jokic), then a coupla guys that are balling out (AD, Brunson) and then a coupla guys that could step it up (Edwards, Donovan Mitchell) and really make a push. Throw in two sentimental faves that could score votes just because (Steph, Durant) and there's your top 10. I'd be shocked if anyone outside of these 10 won the MVP and for now I expect most of these dudes to finish top 10 in the voting.
Rookie of the Year
I started with all 89 (for now) Rookies, bouncing their stats against each other. From there, seven clear tiers emerged:
Tier 1: I have Chet Holmgren (Thunder) slightly ahead of Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)
Obviously, these are the two guys--barring a catastrophic something, it's hard to imagine these aren't the top 2 guys. My pre-season pick was that Holmgren would be a good player on a good team and that Victor would be exciting but his team would suck and he'd probably get shut down by season's end. I've been kinda right about that, though I think eye-test-wise Victor feels like the more bankable prospect and since I see ROY as a forward-looking award, I can understand why people would see Victor as the better prospect going forward. However, the fact that Chet is already contributing to a good team boosts his prospect-ness, as well. So this looks as close to me as we've seen in ages--wouldn't be shocked if it's a tie! (Or that Victor gets shut down and Chet just matriculates past him, as I kinda figured would happen anyway) Whatever happens, I'm pretty confident these are going to be my top 2, in whatever order.
Tier 2: Jaime Jacquez (Heat), Ausar Thompson (Pistons), Brandon Miller (Hornets)
These three are for-real. Jacquez has "Heat Culture" written all over him. Thompson is a ferocious wing defender and feels like he's rounding into a for-real playmaker. Miller looks like a money scorer in this league--a rare home run for the Hornets!
Tier 3: Bilal Coulibaly (Wizards), Keyonte George (Jazz), Scoot Henderson (Blazers), Amen Thompson (Rockets), Dereck Lively (Mavs), Brandin Podzeimski (Warriors), Toumani Camara (Blazers), Cason Wallace (Thunder)
The real variant in this crew is FG%: Scoot and Coulibaly are actually pretty good at everything but both kinda suck on FG%, while Lively is so dominant in FG% that it lifts him in everything else. I was a little surprised Wallace wasn't higher in the pack here, but he doesn't get to the line much and he's not a notable rebounder. George and Thompson are really just starting to get meaningful minutes, they strike me as the two that could rocket up this list.
Tier 4: Marcus Sasser (Pistons), Duop Reath (Blazers), Trayce Jackson-Davis (Warriors), Anthony Black (Magic), Jordan Hawkins (Pelicans)
A little surprised Hawkins wasn't a little higher in this tier but his defensive stats and FG% are not so great comparatively. Interesting, huh, that the Warriors are buoyed by two productive rookies....after successive years of getting nothing from James Wiseman, Moses Moody or Jonathon Kaminga--can it be that (dare I say) Steve Kerr is actually becoming a good coach? (Or perhaps the question is: how long before Draymond punches one of these dudes in the face?)
Tier 5: Criag Porter Jr (Cavs), Cam Whitmore (Rockets)
I don't know Porter (Cavs are in my blackout zone), but seems like Whitmore is just getting started, feels like the Rockets might have another burst of goodness before the end of the year.
Tier 6: GG Jackson (Grizzlies)
Just getting started, is he benefitting from being the only non-injured guy on the roster or can he be a legit filler-upper in this league? I'm guessing he's for real and I expect him to rise up this list--maybe waaaaay up this list!--before the season's end.
Tier 7: Sasha Vezenkov (Kings), Nick Smith (Hornets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Vasilije Micic (Hornets), Kris Murray (Blazers), Gradey Dick (Raptors), Andre Jackson (Bucks)
Nice players. Feels like Dick is starting work his way in, Vezenkov might be going to waste in Sac-town, Micic needs more minutes than he will probably find in the NBA (wouldn't be surprised to see him heading off to China or back to Europe next year), Strawther is a nice rotation guy in Denver and the Blazers have a lot to look forward to (even if it seems bleak at the moment).
Defensive Player of the Year
Okay, I'm a counting stats guy, not an advanced stats guy. You can say 'But, counting stats don't show the whole picture'. That's right, neither do advance stats. And if we were to invent advanced advanced stats, they would still skew in favor of some further rabbit-hole. My rationale for not going too deep into the stats: if you just keep looking, you'll just keep Heisenberg-ing yourself into a further skewed reality. What good is that?
I say all this because when I analyze DPOY through the lens of Stocks (Steals + Blocks) and Defensive Rebounds, people treat me like a hillbilly. The stats are the stats and I think good defense either ends with a turnover or a rebound--what more do you need? Like digging through the deeper stats will settle once and for all whether the greatest nation on earth is Mexico or Portugal. I don't buy it!
Okay, I'll try to go deeper: free throw attempts and assists. Why are these stats relevant to DPOY? I dunno, they might not be, but let's check it out.
8 guys in top 20 of Stocks and Defensive Rebounds: Rudy Gobert (Wolves), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Anthony Davis (Lakers), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Victor Wembanyama (Spurs), Chet Holmgren (Thunder), Scottie Barnes (Raptors), Nic Claxton (Nets)
I'd be a little surprised if this year's DPOY was not one of these 8 guys (but I've been shocked before especially in this category). (*)
Of those, 3 are also top 20 in FTA: Jokic, Davis, Giannis
Of those, 2 are also top 20 in Assists: Jokic, Giannis
What more do you want? These guys are giving top tier defensive intensity and giving you the most for your offensive possession at the same time. (Do you see why I keep saying Giannis and Jokic are the best--and have been for several years now?!?!?)
Honorable mention: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) is top 20 in Stocks (and Steals), FTA (at a better rate than Jokic and a much higher rate than Giannis) and Assists (at a much better a:t than Giannis, a similar rate to Jokic) and has precisely 2 fewer total rebounds than Brook Lopez (Bucks) in the same number of games.
Yeah yeah yeah: Walker Kessler (Jazz), Alex Caruso (Bulls), Matisse Thybulle (Blazers) are having nice seasons, too. I don't want to denigrate their performances. But I can't put them in the same stratosphere as the ones above. Perhaps there is a 5-level chess version of defensive analysis that proves conclusively that they are better human beings than me, but I don't dig for a living 'cause I ain't Indiana Jones.
6th Man
Yeah, my analysis isn't as rigorous for 6th Man, my tiers don't seem as solid to me. I think there's a lot more leeway in this group of guys and their relative skill sets and I think there's still enough time for any one of these dudes to emerge an steal this award. (Also, it feels like the actual voters for this award don't do the due diligence and just vote based on broad perception or reputation, which may have nothing to do with who is actually worthy of the award)
Tier 1: Malik Monk (Kings), Russell Westbrook (Clippers), Bogdan Bogdanovic (Hawks), Immanuel Quickley (Raptors)
Monk was my choice last year and he's still balling out. The Kings are good and if they can make a serious push up the standings, I can definitely see Monk getting votes.
I've been saying for years that Westbrook's mission in life now ought to be winning 6th Man (a very short list of dudes that have an MVP and a 6th Man). The Clippers are good and I think Westbrook's dominance on the 2nd string has a lot to do with that.
The next two are a bit of a problem: Bogdaonivc and Quickley should both probably be starting rather than coming off the bench. If the Hawks are going to make a push, I can see Bogie starting over Dejounte Murray, putting Murray in the Westbrook-off-the-bench role. And as for Quickley, well, the Raptors don't really have a regular ball handling playmaker, time to see if Quickley's numbers scale up with more playing time.
Tier 2: Kelly Olynyk (Raptors), Tre Jones (Spurs), Jordan Clarkson (Jazz), Onyeke Okongwu (Hawks). Cole Anthony (Magic), Bobby Portis (Bucks), Kyle Anderson (Grizzlies)
Again, more problems in this tier. Not sure what Olynyk does for the Raptors whether he's starting or not. I think Jones's numbers are weirdly skewed because of how he's used in San Antonio (also, he should probably be starting anyway). Clarkson has been fine but I've long found him overrated and not really the right fit for the Jazz. Okongwu is nice but I don't see him as the vital 6th Man on his own team. Anthony is nice but I'm not sure he's making any real difference for the Magic. The Wolves are too deep, too good for Anderson to get much notice.
Portis is the one guy here that I can see getting votes, especially if the Bucks can solidify themselves in the top 2 in the East.
Tier 3: Andre Drummond (Bulls), Isaiah Hartenstein (Knicks), Jaime Jacquez (Heat), Benedict Mathurin (Pacers), Naz Reid (Wolves), Mo Wagner (Magic), Walker Kessler (Jazz), Norman Powell (Clippers), Reggie Jackson (Nuggets)
Hartenstein and Kessler have real identities in their home markets as guys that bring good D off the bench, they're both having good seasons and have the right reputations to get votes. As opposed to, say, Drummond, for whom no one will be voting.
If Jackson had some specific noteworthy run down the stretch for the Nuggets or just became an unstoppable bucket-getter off the bench, I guess I can see him getting votes.
As for the other guys: no one votes for rookies (sorry, Jacquez), Reid has the Kyle Anderson problem, Wagner has the Cole Anthony problem, no one at the end of the day is going to notice Norman Powell, and Mathurin's numbers kinda fall apart upon inspection.
Tier 4: TJ McConnell (Pacers), Duncan Robinson (Heat), Tim Hardaway Jr (Mavs), Al Horford (Celtics), Josh Hart (Knicks), Dyson Daniels (Pelicans)
I can see Duncan Robinson getting votes because he is having a much better year than his recent efforts (he's more of a Comeback candidate). Always loved McConnel but I don't see anyone voting for him--or Hardaway or Horford either. Hart is nice but his numbers are kinda janky. Daniels has his fans but the Pelicans are a weird team.
Tier 5: Chris Paul (Warriors), Kevin Love (Heat), Scoot Henderson (Blazers), Keyonte George (Jazz), Alec Burks (Knicks)
Could name recognition buoy CP3 or Love to the top? They'll get votes whether they deserve them or not.
Sorry, Scott and Keyontae, no one votes for rookie. As for Burks, actually I've always found him underrated but, to be fair, he does his best when the game is already over (re: up by or down by 25 points late in the 3rd quarter).
Most Improved
Josh Giddy (Thunder), Jalen Johnson (Hawks), Jonathon Kuminga (Warriors), Aaron Nesmith (Pacers), Alperen Sengun (Rockets), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Coby White (Bulls)
I have them alphabetically because I didn't do any real deep diving on this, just playing the feels. This could change radically down the stretch but so far these feel like good candidates.
Coach of the Year
Chris Finch (Wolves), Mark Daigneault (Thunder), Ty Lue (Clippers)
I dunno, I've been really impressed with the West teams finding their lineups and getting W's.
We'll see if the Wolves can keep it going in the post-season. We'll see if the Thunder can go up a level in the post-season. We'll see if the Clippers can keep their shit from completely falling apart. (The Celtics, incidentally, are a much better bet on all three of those standards, so maybe I should have...) But for now the three top teams in the West are looking strong and in charge--gonna be a great playoff!
Exec of the Year
Knicks (uh...who runs this team?)
Since last summer the Knicks have boldly moved on from Obi Toppin, Immanual Quickly, RJ Barrett and Quinton Grimes--all up-and-coming fan favorites. Re-signing Josh Hart was the right move at the time. Adding Donte DiVincenzo was a great move and rebuilding the roster for OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks look like master strokes. They showed the proper faith in Isaiah Hartenstein and Julius Randle and they unleashed Jalen Brunson to be the floor leader. And they did it all without giving up any 1st round picks.
The Knicks are a whole new franchise all of the sudden and they've made so many correct moves in a row that my head is spinning! The Celtics had a great off-season, too, but they already had more to work with and their moves were no-brainers, whereas the Knicks had to take some real initiative. If the Knicks finish top 4 in the East, these moves will look even more genius-ish.
(*) I will say that with Daniel Gafford moving to the Mavs, he will have a chance to be much more impactful on a good team that everyone pays attention to. I can see him stepping up his game and seeing the reward. If DPOY isn't one of those 8, Gafford and Shai are the only two that even come close to having a shot to my mind.
No comments:
Post a Comment