East
Heat - Bucks
The Bucks have been good all season long without really being dominant at any point. They don't look like a world beater, they just look like they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. But that was the regular season and while I think they'll need to go to another level to get through the East, Giannis and co. should be ready to thrash whoever they meet in the 1st round. Turns out they'll be facing the Heat, who just last year were a Jimmy Butler 3 away from going to the Finals. But this year the Heat offense has been sluggish at best and while you can't sleep on Butler, Bam and Coach Spo, you can sleep on the rest of the roster because there's not a lot of danger over there because unless there's a Duncan Robinson renaissance or Kyle Lowry turns from a frog into a prince, I just don't see enough offense to hang. Bucks in 5.
Hawks - Celtics
The Hawks have been the most maddeningly .500 team I think I've ever seen. Adding Coach Snyder will pay long term dividends but I don't think he'll have enough impact to matter in this series. The Celtics are capable of falling asleep from time to time and I expect Trae Young to steal himself some lunch money, but I don't see the Hawks truly competing with the Celtics (on the other hand, the Hawks don't have winning or losing streaks, so don't be shocked if this goes 7 games, even though I think the Celtics are a vastly better team). Celtics in 6.
Nets - Sixers
I like this Nets roster but the reason they're in the playoffs is because Durant piled up W's before demanding a trade. The Nets have a bevy of wing talent but there's no definition to that offense and they desperately need that one STAR to shoulder the burden, get buckets and be a leader (god, if Ben Simmons could be just a hint of his peak, this team could be really good! But....). So while I like their ability to run around and make the Sixers crazy, I don't see the Nets winning any games (this team needs to wheel and deal this summer, keep an eye on them). Sixers in 4.
Knicks - Cavs
Great series! The Knicks have been revitalized by adding Jalen Brunson last summer and Josh Hart at the deadline and look fun again for the first time in ages. But I think the Cavs are a deeper team, a more reliable squad, and though the Knicks can make weird things happen, I like the Cavs to overcome through steady play at both ends. I like the Knicks to push them but I'll say Cavs in 7.
West
Wolves - Nuggets
The Nuggets were so dominant for so long this year that they mailed in the last coupla months and still finished 1st. Wouldn't be shocked to see them drop Game One of this series, but that will merely be the punch in the mouth they need to get right. I would've given the Thunder a chance at screwing with the Nugget energy, but the Wolves are a shit show, man, a team that has been out of sorts all....well, decade, right? I like the Nuggets in 5.
Lakers - Grizzlies
The Lakers managed to swap Russell Westbrook for a batch of worthy supporting players, but I gotta admit that I'm not sold on their rotation, their coach or their stars. Anthony Davis has been pretty great but the Grizzlies are gonna wear him the fuck out and while Lebron is still a solid scorer, he's not the leader, the anchor, that he has been throughout his career. The Grizzlies have been out of whack for the last coupla months (who knew Stephen Adams was so damn important?) but the playoffs will reorient them and a 1st round match with Lebron-AD and the vaunted Lakers is a perfect white whale for them to slay. I think the Grizzlies win every 4th quarter and make the Lakers look daffy. I'll give the Lakers a game because I think they've got one good game in them. Grizzlies in 5.
Warriors - Kings
Okay! The Warriors struck me as the team to beat coming into the year. But the "punch" (Draymond connecting with Jordan Poole's glass chin) got them off to a bad start, the inability of James Wiseman to fit in led to a desperation trade (that bought back an injury-hobbled Gary Payton II), a bizarrely inconsistent season from Andrew Wiggins, disappointing production from Jonathon Kuminga, Moses Moody and Poole and a truly horrific road record (11-30, ugh!), left them scrambling for 6th place, when I thought they'd be rolling into the post-season. The Kings are in the playoffs for the 1st time in almost 20 years and play pretty much no defense at all. The Kings' strategy is to score 130 e'ry night and see who can hang with them and while I think that would get them by most teams in the West, the Warriors might be the one squad willing to take that challenge. Here's the money shot: it all comes down to Game Six. If the Warriors are up 3-2 going into that game, they'd better finish it off because the Kings are great at home and the Warriors suck on the road. The path for the Warriors is clear, but I like the Kings to get it to Game Seven and get it done. Kings in 7.
Clippers - Suns
The Suns are the popular pick to come out of the West and that is reasonable. The Clippers have a deep roster that manages to never look as deep as needed, while the Suns are coming off an injury-plagued, trade-deadlined roster that has yet to gel. Kawhi has looked pretty great in his limited minutes but not as great as Durant, so let us call that match up a wash. Booker v Paul George is also likely to play to a draw. So Chris Paul against Russell Westbrook/Bones Hyland platoon is probably making the difference, since CP has a better shot at maximizing Deande Ayton than whatever the Clippers will get out of Ivaca Zubac. I like the Clippers to get to game 7 but I think their season ends in the desert. Suns in 7.
2nd Round
Bucks over Cavs in 7
Celtics over Sixers in 7
Nuggets over Suns in 7
Grizzlies over Kings in 7
3rd Round
Bucks over Celtics in 7
Nuggets over Grizzlies in 6
Finals
Bucks over Nuggets in 7
(Feels like a lot of long series, pushing the maximum number of games this season. Seasonal load management might determine the champion)
No comments:
Post a Comment