Atlanta Hawks Observations

The Hawks went off last year but still got swept by the Cavs in the playoffs; this past season the Hawks were still good (but not as good) and still got swept by the Cavs in the playoffs. The initial murmurings were about 'blowing it up' and starting over. Could happen, but look at the roster for 2017-18: the only player signed as of now is Walter Tavares (for $1m) with a $21m player option for Paul Millsap (who could probably get more than that by then). Blowing it up? Uh, they're kinda already blown up: if they did nothing at all this team would just disintegrate on its own. So what exactly are they doing this off-season? Short answer: I have no idea. Two years down the line is such a mystery that their options for this summer are virtually infinite but whatever they do it must provide future salary certainty.

For next year they currently have: C Tiago Splitter, PF Paul Millsap, SF Thabo Sefolosha, SG Kyle Korver, PG Jeff Teague with a bench of Dennis Schroeder, Mike Scott, Tim Hardaway Jr, Lamar Patterson and the aforementioned Walter Tavares (remember: of all these players Tavares is the only one signed beyond next season). Largely bringing the band back together would mean Splitter taking up more of Horford's minutes and Sefolosha sliding into the Demarre Carroll--I mean, Kent Bazemore--spot. Schroeder, Scott and Hardaway reprise their roles in the rotation. That's what happens if they make no moves at all...which pretty much cannot happen...so this depth chart will invariably be updated by Nov 1.

Their current free agents: Al Horford (high priority, I would assume they'll throw everything they have at getting him signed long term), Kirk Hinrich (a candidate for retirement), Kent Bazemore (he's gonna get paid this summer, not sure if Atlanta will be his cash register of choice), Mike Muscala (I'd say very good chance he returns as he is cheap enough to bring back in case their more ambitious free agent choices fail to pan out), Khris Humphries (personally, I still think he's still got a coupla good years in him but with Splitter back from injury, I doubt he'll be back in Atlanta).

Atlanta, like everyone else in the league (except Cleveland), has no shortage of cap space. They are legitimate players for any and all free agents. As I said above, I assume #1 will be re-signing Horford. They chose not to deal him at the trade deadline (but also chose not extend him last summer) to maintain maximum flexibility but I still think he's an integral part of their identity and is still young enough to deserve the top dollar he's gonna get somewhere. After that its really hard to tell where they go: will they extend Teague and/Schroeder? If not, will they trade Teague and/or Schroeder? Will they pay Bazemore or let him walk? Do they think Sefolosha is a long term replacement for Bazemore (I'd say no but I also think Bazemore is kinda overhyped and not as irreplaceable as some may suggest)? Would they like to upgrade their bench depth or do they think Tavares will be ready to play next year? They still hold the rights to Barcelona's Marcus Eriksson and Olympiacos' Dimitrios Agravnis, are they fool's gold or trade bait or future roster taker-uppers?

They have #21, #44, #54 in the upcoming draft which would hopefully give them depth for the future. Those 2nd round picks are probably best served in looking for Euro players that could be brought back for 2017-18 (like Eriksson and Agravanis). Whereas with #21 they'd like to get a rotation player that could compete with Schroeder or Sefolosha or Splitter....but which one? C Diamond Stone, a guy that looked to me like a sure future top 5 pick just last summer in the under-17 FIBA World Cup, might still be there. Or maybe SG Caris Levert to take Korver's spot. Or maybe PG Tyler Ulis to give the Hawks even more options in trading Teague/Schroeder. Do they just take the best available or is there a strategy at work? Or might they dangle some of those picks to the Nets or Knicks, both apparently eager to get back into the draft; but, if they do trade those picks, what do they get? Are they looking for a starter or some bench depth or future picks? Who knows? This team is a total fucking black box!

I'd say their top flight free agent of choice ought to be SF Nicolas Batum: a defensive crazy man who can knock down 3's, currently plays for a division rival and would be the perfect replacement for Bazemore. (Unfortunately I kinda think Batum is gonna be the belle of the ball this summer, one of those dudes that is needed by 30 teams and may well collect the biggest paycheck of all) Rumor has it they want Dwight Howard, would they give him more then 2 years? Are they willing to let Horford walk (and then Millsap next summer) just to overpay Howard for 2-3 years? I dunno, they might. I would think SG/SF Gerald Henderson might be a nice player off the bench for them or maybe SF Jeff Green, both of whom should be reasonably affordable. But are they planning on re-signing Korver or Teague or Schroeder next summer? I dunno.

Salary certainty for the future, something they've avoided in recent years, is the real centerpiece of this summer's activities. Because the Hawks have no future, its hard to predict their present. If they don't take a hold of their future, it'll take hold of them.

USA Men's Roster update

Still need to cut 4 more players.  So who's out?

Derek Rose, Steph Curry, James Harden, Kenneth Faried, Anthony Davis seem locked in as the starting five.  Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson are first off the bench.  Those seven strike me as guaranteed to play the big minutes going forward.

Rose (1) is set up to be the star of the team, the focal point, the leader, the alpha dog, etc.  I think George would've led in minutes played and Durant probably would've led in scoring (or at least FGA's) but even still Rose would've been the captain of the ship.  He looks fantastic!  Better than he's looked in a long, long time and that's great to see because its not set in stone that he'll once again be the badass he once was: the last time we saw Rose truly ballin' out in the NBA so was Danny Granger, the guy that got shuffled out of 3 cities in six months last year.  As a fan of Team USA I'm happy to see Rose looking his old self while wearing my flag on his chest.

Steph Curry (2) is the anointed filler-upper now that Durant is gone.  Curry will stretch the defense, make plays for his teammates and only needs to get hot once or twice a game to be an MVP.  He'll settle things down, right the ship when need be, rev up the engines when given the chance, whatever the game dictates Curry will provide.  

Anthony Davis (3) is ready to blossom, get ready America you're gonna get close-up view of a caterpillar becoming a butterfly.  He's gonna have many killer highlights, he'll be the defensive stopper, and he'll score with an efficiency that's gonna blow you away.  And because he plays for the lame-ass Pelicans in the hard-ass West, a World Cup is his ticket to glory.  He's good at everything on the court and he's getting ready to really shine out.  This is his first big chance since NCAA 2012 to show everybody just how freakin' good he is.

Kenneth Faried (4) is the necessary guy.  He is perhaps the best rebounder in the world, a solid defender and reliable with the ball.  He's the next generation PJ Brown: all the toughness and dirty work with more scoring and less frowning.  And most importantly for this team, he'll play his ass off without demanding the ball.  Indeed, my only complaint with him in the Brazil game was too many bad shots, he's got to pass out of the double team!  My man, when you're playing with Curry and Harden and Davis and Gay and Thompson, you need to be passing always.  Dunks, layups, free throws, all yours; anything else, look for Rose.

Okay I'll say it: James Harden (5) is the new Dwyane Wade.  His game is basically dribbling into people and going to the foul line.  Boring.  And he's gotta be a prima donna to make sure he gets the calls.  Boring.  I know Harden is a badass and I should be grateful he's on my squad.  But his game bores me.  That said, I expect he'll lead in minutes played (and ball hogging) now that George and Durant are out.

Kyrie (6) looked great against Brazil.  Pesky defender, so quick with the ball, good finisher, good shooter, looks to make plays, great basketball IQ.  He's the perfect 6th man for this team.

Klay Thompson (7) is going to be a regular player on this team, could start if the int'l refs don't dig Harden's brand of jive, but even off the bench he'll play a lot of minutes.  He's got chemistry with Curry, he's a top notch wing defender, good shooter that can get hot (especially when he's the 4th scoring option) and he's in the hungry stage of his career where he sees the Cup as an opportunity rather than a burden.

Those seven strike me as untouchable, they are the heart of the roster.  Of the next five, I'm not at all sure.

I suspect Rudy Gay (8) is in.  The fact that he was invited in during a time of winnowing down the team indicates to me that they already had a plan for Gay.  With George and Durant out, Gay gives them wing scoring, veteran presence and good size for his position; he ain't no Durant and he ain't no George but Gay should still be better than whoever Angola will be trotting out.  So I reckon he fits on this team.

I suspect Chandler Parsons (9) is in.  When you're looking to round out your bench, you want guys that will give maximum effort in minimum appearances.  Parsons is probably the best candidate for that.  Parsons is a good shooter, good ball handler, plus defender and he's got enough ego to sustain himself when he's playing 4 minutes per game.  And he's got the skills and the moxy to step and be a hero if need be.

I think Demarcus Cousins (10) is in.  I get it: he's an annoying baby but, dude, he can play.  I think he'd be great in the int'l context, I think opposing fans will remember him the most, worldwide I think he's the one who stands to become an int'l sensation from this team.  And like Davis, he plays for a crappy team that is never getting anywhere near an NBA championship.  So until he gets into the gritty 'trade me' portion of his career, this is his best chance to win something and be a bigshot.  Personally, I would start Cousins with Davis at the 4 but nobody else seems to think that's a good idea.  And if you're not gonna start him, then you don't need a pain in the ass on the bench, that's annoying, that detracts from the team concept and is a freakin' nightmare for the coach (Jurgan Klinnsman didn't think twice about cutting Landon Donovan and there's no way Coach K would think any more of Cousins).  I get all that.  But he's really good, man.  He does everything on the court well and he wants to win.  I'd start him or at least sub him for Davis or Faried.

I think Kyle Korver (11) is in.  Like Parsons, he is a guy that will gladly come off the bench and contribute as much as he can.  He's a pretty good defender and a terrific 3-baller, which could become important late in the game.  He is one-dimensional but on your bench its great to have complements to your core rather than guys that could come in and shake things up.

For the last spot I would take Damien Lillard, I just think he's real good and in small doses could be deadly and/or a game-changer.  But perhaps he is too much of a star to accept coming in behind Rose, Curry and Irving.  I dunno, I think he's the young and hungry type that relishes any opportunity to shine out.  But perhaps the coaches fear his underwhelmed ego getting in the way of his production.

So I suspect they'll go with Mason Plumlee (12).  The talk was that Plumlee had supplanted Cousins but I reckon he supplanted Drummond as the 3rd big.  Plumlee would only be there to cover foul trouble for Davis (who is a very active defender) and Cousins (who rubs refs the wrong way like nobody's business) and he probably will get some playing time in that role.  He's Coach K's boy and though he is one-dimensional, he is predictable, constant, should make a minimum of mistakes.  He won't be called on to do much but I expect to excel when needed.

That leaves Gordon Hayward, Demar DeRozan, Andre Drummond, along with Lillard, off the team.  DeRozan requires too much service offensively, he's not a trusty one-dimensional guy off the bench, he's a well-rounded scorer who's gonna want the ball and the focus and I don't think there's enough of the to go around on this team (perhaps Olympic 2016 but not now).  Andre Drummond is (by all accounts) not exactly a student of the game so its not hard to imagine that Coach K won't be a big fan of the guy, indeed I don't reckon he sticks with the national team (Nerlens, Jabari will be overtaking him shortly).  I don't know about Gordon Hayward, I think Chandler Parsons is just a more well-liked player at this point, but I can see Hayward being back for the next big USA tourney.  Lillard, too, and Beal and John Wall, as well.  Those guys are worth keeping around even if they're not the blueprint right now.

Victory is not in the bag.  USA has a lot of talent but traditionally USA doesn't take this competition seriously, preferring the high profile Olympics (it is an opportunity to appear in the homes of Americans that prefer the Olympics to actual sports), while the rest of the world thinks little of the Olympics and really gears up for the Cup (nee World Championships).  Personally, I'm with the rest of the world on this one: the Olympics suck (there I said it).  The World Cup is the place to truly find the best of the best, leave the Olympics to the kids (seriously: put an age limit on the team sports).  USA should dominate the basketball World Cup for years to come but to do that, we have to take it seriously.  Colangelo and Coach K have done a marvelous job instilling an on-going nature of Team USA, I wish hockey and baseball would follow suit and each build up their own proper World Cups and instill that same culture to it.

I think USA beats Spain in the Final.  But Spain is gonna be stacked and USA better bring it if they think they're gonna win it.