2026 World Cup Final

Spain 2-0 France

Spain dominated possession, got a PK, dominated possession some more, added another goal when the French defense fell asleep, dominated possession and then it was over. France had a coupla chances but never felt particularly dangerous, Spain just choked them out and when they got the first goal it was over, but when they got the second goal it was over. France had a great run in this Cup but Spain is their kryptonite, the only team really that could interrupt their attack and put them in a back sliding position. Disappointing for the French, seems like Coach Deschamps is on the way out (*), Mbappe is heading into wily veteran phase, but France still has a ton of young talent (Olise, Deue, Upmecano and Dembele should all be back for the next Cup) and Deschamps is as decorated a veteran in the history of French futbol, so no hard feelings. 

Argentina 2-1 England

I simply don't understand bunkering in soccer when you have the talent to possess and attack. Don't you see that the way to run out clock in soccer is to possess the ball rather than building a wall in front of your goal? If you suck at soccer and you're up against a vastly better opponent, well, then parking the bus is probably your best shot in such a low scoring game. But England is one of the finest squads in the world, plenty of ball handling talent in the midfield, plenty of dangerous attackers up front--so make the other team play defense! Make them nervous! Make them backpedal! Why are you just sitting back and letting Argentina take batting practice on you? I just...I don't....what.... 

Well, it happened again: Argentina plays like slop for 80 minutes, falls behind, then in desperation picks apart the other team's backward-facing defense to steal the game late. In the 1st half, the teams were both very chippy, a lot of aggressive fouls and passive-aggressive foul-baiting that was, at times, kind of embarrassing to watch. These are two top flight teams, they should be playing soccer instead of trying to play the referee. So by halftime, not much had happened and it was a scoreless draw. Then England were able to find the goal on a header off a lovely cross into the box that the defender just couldn't get to. Now up 1-0, it felt like it was time for England to play loose and push forward, there was still plenty of time left, hunkering back didn't seem necessary or appropriate (or feasible). But England didn't really get much going in this game with or without the lead. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham both disappeared and the English never got forward or possessed much. They played too emotional in the 1st half and without much thought in the 2nd. 

Well, after 40 solid minutes of Messi probing the English back line, the Argentines tied the game up. Then a few minutes later, Messi connected on a cross to steal the victory. Meanwhile, the English just sorta stood there. To be fair, England kinda sucked the whole time, its not like scoring the goal changed anything up for them. But they allowed Argentina to possess in front of them for so much of the game, it's kinda surprising England were able to steal the lead at all. But once they did, you can tell they just thought the game was over. Anyway, England has been in a nice place the last few years, it'd be easy to say they're moving in the right direction but will Germany, Italy and Netherlands suck forever? (spoiler alert: I doubt it) The English better get their shit together because this good run won't last forever. 

3rd Place Game

England 6-4 France

Whoa! What a game! Easily the funnest game of this Cup--I'd be shocked and amazed if the Final was half this good! That said, the 1st half was actually rather lackluster. Before England's first goal (in the 3rd minute), I already noted that the French just didn't look up for this match. England was playing loose and fun, the French looked like they all had hangovers (**); France was playing like a college football team that had been in the top 10 all season, fucked up late and found themselves in the Gator Bowl instead of the big game. England scored quickly (he had an opportunity, took a long rip, it was well placed, the keeper was cooked), then followed pretty soon after with another goal off a corner kick. I felt bad for the French goalie: he's had a pretty damn good tournament but his defenders on this day left him out to dry. The third goal was a bit of Keystone Kops stuff, but the initial outlet pass was a beauty and the way the English strikers stayed with the play was impressive, drawing the keeper out of position, then toying with the hapless defenders. A 4th goal before halftime was embarrassing but, if you were paying attention, those last two English goals came from France pushing too far ahead--so at least France woke up and was trying to get into the game. England was up 4-0 at the half but I had a feeling that France would be coming back. I envisioned a 4-3 scoreline in the 85th minute guaranteeing a furious finish. Well, I was sorta right: the 4-3 scoreline came in the 65th minute, which allowed for a lot more craziness. 

France came out balling after halftime and just ran the English out of the stadium for 20 minutes. My god, if Olise could shoot worth a shit, man, France might've scored 10 goals! Just as France were back in it, they gave up a penalty (right call, defender really shouldn't have gone down like that) and the score was 5-3. But France kept attacking, made it 5-4 and it felt like the furious finish was gonna come after all. But Bellingham finished the scoring with a nasty piece of bag work and finished the game off. It was kinda fun watching the English take it to the French, just as fun watching the France take it back at 'em. (If England had played half this frisky against Argentina, they'd be playing today instead of yesterday!) Fun match. 

Final

Spain v Argentina

This is reminding me of the Ladies' French Open Final we just had: Chwalinska was a qualifier that made her way to the Final, not so much by outplaying her opponents as simply mesmerizing them; Andreeva, a top ten talent on the way up, failed to be mesmerized and just smooshed her like a bug, even though Chwalisnka had been on an amazing heater. Yeah...yeah: Argentina hasn't been beating teams, they've been mesmerizing them, the other team get the goal they need, then they're star struck by Messi, they're ball watching rather than playing and before they know it, their lunch money is gone and they don't even know what happened. Messi inspires the best out of people, then forces them to play different once they've taken the lead. Can he do it against Spain?

In a word: no. They are not going to be mesmerized or put off their game plan. Spain only plays one way. Whether they're ahead or behind, they only play one way. Whether its the opening bell or time is running out, they only play one way. Whether Messi is on the other team or not, they only play one way. I have no doubt Spain will dominate the time of possession. The question is can Spain score? If they can steal the lead, it'll be tough for Argentina to get it back. As we're seen, it takes Messi really until the very end of the match to put his observations into action and only then after a prolonged period of probing the defense. But Spain won't give him that time to probe or experiment. Argentina needs to get a penalty or close direct kick or create chaos out of corner kicks; in short, Argentina's best chance to score is on set plays rather than the run of play. Also, I think the longer game goes, I think that just gives Argentina more opportunities to steal a goal and/or more time to probe for the Spanish defense weaknesses 

I worried Spain wouldn't score against France but they got a penalty and a rebound goal (***) and they were in control throughout. If they can do that against Argentina, then I think this game is over quick and possibly even rather dull (depending on how furious the Argentines can make it down the stretch). Spain (like Andreeva in the French Open example) just plays their game, the opponent's highs and lows don't much matter. If Argentina scores, Spain will just keep plugging along, maybe they regain the lead, maybe they don't, but either way they're not going to panic, they're not going to fall apart. That cohesive style is Spain's greatest strength and I think it will carry them to trophy presentation. As for Argentina, they've played with moxy and Messi is still an all-timer, but I think they're out of gas and unless they come up with a shocker of a goal (preferably as early in the match as possible), then I just don't think they outscore Spain. 

I've been picking against Argentina the whole way and I've been getting wrong the whole time. But this pick isn't about Argentina, it's about Spain. And, yeah, that's the point. 

(*) I recommended years ago that USA soccer go get Deschamps. I think I still think that. I don't dislike Coach Pochittino, but I suspect that the problems behind the scenes of Team USA are not talent or tactics but personalities (re: it seems like they all hate each other). Personality clashes aren't a killer to a team, they just require a certain finesse. Deschamps has spent a lifetime dealing with bigger-than-life personalities (I remember when Eric Cantona called Deschamps "the water boy" back in the day, but Deschamps went on to a lot more glory than Cantona ever got!), is he the right guy to knock some heads together in the USA locker room? I dunno, but I suspect he might have a better shot at it than Coach Poch. And why hasn't Pochettino made his decision yet on whether to to return? He's probably waiting for other jobs to come open--and Team USA is probably waiting for other coaches to come available. Well....here he is.

(**) The beer sweats. Well, they're French, so...the wine sweats?

(***) Hmmm....have you noticed that a lot of Spain's goals come from rebounds? 'Sup wit dat?

2026 World Cup (Semifinals)

France 2-0 Morocco

Morocco blocked up France pretty well, but once Mbappe found the goal (sweet rip!) and then Dembele followed soon after (sneaky touch!), that was it for Morocco. They had the right idea and both of the goals were really nice, so they held on as best they could, but it never felt like they were going to score, so they had to get to PK's to make it work. Outside of that 8-or-so minute stretch, Morocco was hanging.

Spain 2-1 Belgium

Worth noting that both of Spain's goals were off sloppy rebounds, as dominant as their possession is and as much as we want to anoint Yamal as the next super stud, their goal scoring is shaky at best. Belgium was savvy enough to keep it close, get the first goal back, perhaps if their goalkeeper hadn't gone out for injury, maybe they survive into overtime. But it wasn't to be, Spain was too good at keeping Belgium out of any offensive rhythm and got enough luck to move on.

England 2-1 (OT) Norway

Strange game. Neither Harry Kane (England) nor Erleng Haaland (Norway), two of the bust out stars of this Cup, did much of anything in this match. Norway took the lead on a sweet sneaky strike--Norway's achilles' heel in this match was using Haaland as a decoy rather than a for-real target and though it got the their first goal, it didn't get them any more than that. But Jude Bellingham had a moment of brilliance to bring the score back level. Norway's lethargic offense was on display for the first 20 minutes or so, but after the hydration break, they went balls to the wall for about the next 60 minutes. But the Miami heat just kinda wore them down and when Bellingham stuck in a rebound in the extra frame, it felt like the dagger. Both teams were dragging hard by the end. Norway had a good run, Haaland was definitely one of this year's stand-outs, but their offense was just too creaky to get any further than this. 

Argentina 3-1 (OT) Switzerland

Argentina stole the lead early on a header in the first 10 minutes, my immediate thought was "okay, this game ends one nothing." And it felt like that for the rest of the 1st half. But Switzerland equalized after halftime, pretty quickly followed by a screwy red card: Swiss had the ball, appeared to be fouled by the Argentine defender, ref gives Argentine a yellow card, replay shows that Swiss guy flopped, so the ref--because he gave out an initial yellow--felt the need to give the flopper a yellow, which was the dude's second and he got tossed. So, look, it was a pretty ordinary looking foul, I didn't think it warranted a yellow card, but when he flipped his call, now he had to give the other guy, which was even less warranted. This basically forced the Swiss to bunker and counter, which they otherwise probably wouldn't have done. Argentina was totally uninspiring for 90 minutes but when Alvarez had an opening, he drilled it (*). They added another as the Swiss went into sell out mode. Argentina is just lolling along, I don't understand how they've been able to get this far, even Messi is starting to slow down and this team just isn't that impressive.

Semifinals

Spain - France

Okay, Spain, it's Yamal time! I have no doubt that Spain can hang with France, but if they're gonna beat France they're going to have to score--probably more than once! And Yamal is the only one with that level of danger. Spain can stifle the French, they can make the French work, they can dodge and parry and counter, but to win they're gonna need goals, because France just needs a minute to light up the scoreboard. If this gets to OT, I think that favors France; if it gets to PKs, that probably still favors France. Spain needs to win it in regulation and that requires keeping France at bey (which they can do) and putting the ball in the net (which....I don't know if they can do that). I can totally see a game where Spain dominates possession for 85 minutes and loses 2-0. Again, France has too many advantages for Spain to keep up with. Gotta go with France. 

Argentina - England

Argentina has been the most frustrating side to watch in this Cup. Outside of Messi being Messi, this team is so unimpressive, they're so not particularly good at anything, they're so lucky in the front and the back. I know they have pedigree, they're loaded with int'l talent and yet, outside of Messi, they're not interesting to watch and they don't seem reliable in any way. England is dangerous up front, just good enough in the back, but can they control the midfield against Argentina? I think they can and I think they have more all-round scoring punch than Argentina. Gotta go with England.

(*) I knew it was in before he took the shot. Needed the right touch but he had the opening and he nailed it. Hell of a shot. 

2024 Euro

England 1-2 Spain

Scoreless at halftime, I thought Spain was generally the more dangerous team but they seemed evenly match enough that the game felt like it was headed to OT. But then Spain grabbed the lead right out of halftime and suddenly it felt like they could make it stand up if they could control the possession. They more or less did, they still seemed more dangerous around the goal and certainly more likely to run out some clock. But England tied it up on a lovely rip just outside the box on a loose ball that got away from the crowd. Now it felt like we were back on the OT thing again, but both sides looked game for some action and I thought the 2nd half was good back and forth. Then Spain caught the English in a moment of not paying attention and took the lead back on a bang-bang finish off a swift low pass into the box (that actually didn't look all that dangerous). 

Both sides played hard and smart but I thought Spain was the better team throughout and the scoreline is accurate. All through this tourney, England had a knack for looking mostly confused on offense but then getting the last minute goal needed to move them forward; well, that got them all the way to the damn championship, but you just knew that wasn't really a proper strategy. And even though they did have some chances late (man, that triple header combo that led to back to back goal line saves was a pip!), Spain was not the team that was gonna let England steal one from them.

As I predicted earlier, the winner of the Germany-Spain quarterfinal went on to win the whole thing--I firmly believe it would've been Germany beating England in the final today if they had won. They really were the two best teams. Both teams had good talent and good depth all over the field. Spain got the head-to-head W and now they have the full on trophy. Great return to form for the Spanish. I wouldn't call them the runaway fave in the 2026 World Cup, though they'll definitely be in the mix. 

2024 Euro Soccer (Final)

France 1-2 Spain

Spain had a great look in the early minutes of the match but couldn't connect on the header in the box; France went right back down the field and did connect on their header in the box to snatch the early lead and it felt like we might have a match. The next 25 minutes or so was pretty exciting, with Spain managing to tie it up and then take the lead in successive possessions. But that was about it. After that the French just kept spinning their wheels and Spain just casually possessed the ball without worry until the game was over. The first 30 minutes were high octane excitement, but after Spain took the lead, they pretty well sucked the life out of the match. France is nice, a lot of nice players, but they don't do much as a team, there's no real center, no real identity, you'd think it would be Mbappe, but he disappears for long stretches and the overcompensates when he does finally get the ball. This team is listless and searching when it feels like they ought to be dominating right now with good depth all over the pitch and a good mix of youth and veterans. I dunno, maybe they'll figure it out by the next World Cup. 

Netherlands 1-2 England

The Dutch got it started with an unexpected rip from 30 yards out and at first it felt like Netherlands might dominate. But after that initial score, the English took over possession and were able to tie it before halftime on a PK; I was surprised the ref didn't call the penalty right away (actually I thought he did and was surprised to find that he didn't), it looked like a foul to me, but he waited for VAR and then re-watched the video multiple times....wtf? What was he looking for? It was pretty obviously a foul right away! Anyway, for the most part the English struck me as the better team in possession and I expected them to score again. And, in typical English fashion, they waited til the final minute to do it, but they did score the winning goal--what a rip it was! He turned and fired it quick from a poor angle, the defender didn't react and the keeper, I think, fell asleep--which calls attention to the fact that the Dutch played so low energy in the 2nd half that when it came time to make plays, they just didn't have it in them to do it. England was the better team, the more confident team on the ball and the better attacking team and they got the goals. The Dutch scored a delicious goal early on but they just never got after it from that point on, they were lackadaisical and didn't protect the ball. 

Final

Spain - England

Spain likes to get a lead then take the air out of the game by dominating possession; England likes to wait til the last minute to get the goal they need. Gotta go with Spain here. Their offense is the best defense in this tourney and unless England scores first (preferably before halftime), I don't think they'll get their chance late to keep it going. If Spain avoids giving up a PK, I think they're the better team and should pull through.

2021 UEFA Nations League (semifnals)

Okay, I'll be honest: I have no idea what the Nations League tournament is, but this is a brilliant final four, so I'll take it.  This is an in-between World Cups filler event, I suppose? Doesn't really seem necessary as all the continents have tourneys in the interval, but whatever, more top level soccer is fine with me. Two great games, looking forward to two more.

Italy 1-2 Spain

Both teams started off this match in full-on defensive mode, felt like not much was gonna happen. But that dissipated pretty quick when a beautiful cross (breathtaking! Kelly to Reed, Aikman to Irvin, Brady to Moss kinda shit!) found the goal and it was on. Spain connected once more in a lovely series of passes that ended with a killer header back across the goal right before halftime. I thought Italy kinda dominated after halftime but they were only able to cut the lead in half (on a killer breakaway). Hey, man, great game, glad I stumbled on to this. 

Belgium 2-3 France

Unlike the first game, this one was wide open chaos from the get-go. Belgium found the goal first when the keeper got caught leaning the wrong way (like a baserunner getting picked off of first). Belgium connected again right before halftime on a nifty move by Lukaku to get himself open at the goal. (One could argue that the keeper probably should've saved both goals but I'd say the first one caught him off guard and the second one had some serious power on it at point blank range, neither of them were as easy as they may have looked sitting on your couch at home) Mbappe came alive in the 2nd half and found Benzema in the box, who had a perfect off-balance lefty touch in traffic, to get on the board. Then Mbappe scored the PK that tied it up (gotta say: didn't look like foul to me at first but the replay was clear that it was the right call). Lukaku had a goal waived off for off-side late (brilliant finish but he had a step on the defender, didn't he?), then Pogba doinked one off the crossbar soon after, then after all that France found the goal with a nice run up the right side leading to a cross to the other side of the field, which caught the defense all out of shape and that led to the game winner. Started crazy, ended c

crazy, good stuff in between. Another fun game.