Friday, December 22, 2017

2017-18 NCAA Football Bowls (Week 2)

12/22
Alabama-Birmingham (+6.5) - Ohio (over/under 59)
I used to live in Athens, Ohio.  I'll take UAB and the over.

Central Michigan (+3.5) - Wyoming (o/u 45.5)
I thought Central Michigan showed some spunk this season, gotta love them as a dog.  I'll take Central Michigan and the over.


12/23
Texas Tech (+2.5) - South Florida (o/u 66)
South Florida was the trendy pick at the start of the season for the out of nowhere playoff possibility. They got usurped by Central Florida, who still didn't get a playoff invite despite finishing undefeated. Texas Tech didn't show much this year. I'll take South Florida and the over.

San Diego State (-6.5) - Army (o/u 46)
San Diego State had some good results this year while Army showed a solid running game. I like this to be low scoring. San Diego State and the under.

Appalachian State (+7) - Toledo (o/u 61.5)
I'll go with App State and the under.


12/24
Fresno State (+2.5) - Houston (o/u 49)
Fresno State was pretty good this year, surprised they're the dog to the unheralded Houston side. I'll go with Fresno State and the over.


12/26
Utah (+6.5) - West Virginia (o/u 56)
Both of these teams had some moments this year but came up short to their higher powered conference competition. I actually watched both of these teams this year: Utah really should've beaten USC and West Virginia lost a tough early game to Virginia tech. I'll take Utah to keep it close and the over.

Duke (-5.5) - Northern Illinois (o/u 47.5)
I like Northern Illinois and the under.

Kansas State (-2.5) - UCLA (o/u 64.5)
UCLA's QB is discussed as one of the intriguing QB options going into this draft but I was not impressed the one time I saw him play. Kansas State played a tougher slate of competition in the Big 12 this year. I'll go with Kansas State and the over.


12/27
Southern Mississippi (+16.5) - Florida State (o/u 49)
Breaking news is that Florida State is technically not eligible to be in this bowl game but this was discovered so late (broken by Reddit, as a matter of fact) that the game shall go on. Considering they've lost their coach and their starting QB after a rugged season (marred by hurricanes and bad losses), I'm surprised the Seminoles are even a favorite. Do they come out guns a-blazing to make up  for a disappointing season and to set a tone for next year? Uh, nah, I think they mail it in. I'll take Southern Mississippi (to win straight up) and the over.

Iowa (-2.5) - Boston College (o/u 45.5)
Iowa scored one of the biggest upsets of the season by thumping Ohio State (kept them out of the playoff), while Boston College has already scored one of the bigger upsets...of the basketball season...by tripping up Duke. I'll go with Iowa and the under.

Texas (+2.5) - Missouri (o/u 60.5)
Both of these squads were up and down all year, both had some nice wins, both had some terrible losses. Hard to say which is better, this should be a pretty good game. For that reason alone, I'll go with the dog. I'll take Texas and the under.

Arizona (-3) - Purdue (o/u 65.5)
While I thought the top tier of the Big 10 was better than the Pac-12 this year, I think the middling Pac-12 teams were superior. I'll take Arizona and the under.


12/28
Virginia (+1) - Navy (o/u 55)
Another toss-up game. I think Virginia is a better version of Vanderbilt: not filled with great athletes but they play smart and and they'll take advantage of mistakes. I suspect Navy is pretty similar to that. I like Navy to keep the ball on ground, I think both teams avoid giving up big plays and this game slogs well into the 4th quarter. I'll go with Virginia and the under.

(22) Virginia Tech (+4) - (19) Oklahoma State (o/u 63)
Oklahoma State had some blistering offense at the beginning of the year but kinda slowed down as the season went on (and the competition got tougher). Virginia Tech has a workmanlike offense that is capable of looking good at times but too prone to mistakes down the stretch. Should be a good game, I think Oklahoma State is a better team though, I think they could run it up on Tech. I'll take Oklahoma State and the over.

(13) Stanford (+2.5) - (15) TCU (o/u 49)
Stanford was kinda overrated early in the season but rebounded to have a strong close. TCU had their moments in the top ten but couldn't get past the Big 12 competition. I think TCU's offense can overpower Stanford, but I expect both to score a lot. I'll take TCU and the over.

(18) Washington State (-1) - (16) Michigan State (o/u 46)
These were two kinda plodding teams that had flashes of good but mostly came up short. I think Michigan State's talent is nice but not quite there yet, while Washington State was built for the Pac-12 and almost had a good season before faltering late. I think Michigan State is the more solid team, though Washington State may be the more explosive team. I think Michigan State can keep the score low but I like Washington State to make plays down the stretch. I'll take Washington State and the under.


12/29
Wake Forest (-3) - Texas A&M (o/u 64.5)
I kinda liked Wake Forest's rugged defense, they were a tough out in the ACC this year. While Texas A&M is looking at a new coach and some internal upheaval over their future. I like Wake to get it done and the under.

(24) North Carolina State (-6.5) - Arizona State (o/u 59.5)
I watched North Carolina State a coupla times this year, thought they were a pretty good team with some puzzling losses (how'd they lose to South Carolina?). In a year when all the Pac-12 teams looked mediocre (and exactly the same), the Sun Devils did not stand out. I've got to take North Carolina State and the under.

Kentucky (+7.5) - (21) Northwestern (o/u 51)
Kentucky has been getting incrementally more talented over the last few years, but they don't know how to win games or to keep their excitement contained in a useful fashion. Northwestern had a pretty good year and finished strong. I've got to think their offense will be more explosive than anything Kentucky can bring. I'll take Northwestern and the over.

Utah State (+4) - New Mexico State (o/u 61.5)
I'll take New Mexico State and the over.

(8) Southern Cal (+7.5) - (5) Ohio State (o/u 64.5)
JT Barrett: he did a dozen magical things when two dozen ordinary things would've won more games. Must be the most conflicting player in Buckeye history: so much talent and skill, so much promise, ultimately so much left on the table. Meanwhile Sam Darnold began the year with so much hype and while not being a total bust, was not able to overcome the expectations. Both QBs are capable of winning a game or losing one. I've got to figure that Ohio State will have the superior game plan, better defense and the will to show the playoff committee they made a mistake. My gut is the Buckeyes drop a bomb on the overmatched Trojans but I suspect the Trojans will be able to keep this respectable. I'll go with Ohio State and the under.

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