Cowboys (9-7) -- Without Romo the Cowboys were left with a rookie QB to lead them. My initial thought was they struggle for a while then pull it together when Romo returned; but Dak Prescott has been pretty good and it looks like Romo will return to a strong squad hungry for a playoff run. Or...maybe not. Now it feels to me that they'll succeed just fine with Dak and be ready for a string of injuries and setbacks when Romo returns. I'm not saying the Cowboys are worse than I thought but I'm not saying they're better either. They're strangely just about the same. I still like them to win 9 games and the division.
Giants (8-8) -- The Giants are ruled by the Eli Principle: Eli makes bad teams good and good teams bad. So are the Giants good enough to sabotaged by Eli or poor enough to be elevated by him? Ehh, I think this year is kind of a wash. The D line isn't bad, I like receivers but the rest of the team is kinda middling. I think Eli won't have that much to say about how far this team goes. They're not bad, they'll hang around and wait for the Cowboys to blow it but I think they're a middle of the road team in the end. 8 wins and no playoffs.
Eagles (7-9) -- Everyone loves Carson Wentz and I don't disagree, the kid looks like he knows what he doing out there. But I'm afraid his success will only screw up the rebuilding process (like when the Niners brought in Mariucci to take the fall after Siefert only for Jeff Garcia to shock the hell out of everyone). The Eagles were supposed to be mailing it in this season (the Hinkie Effect) but the rook is actually pretty good, which will only drop the draft position and distort next year's schedule. Fortunately I don't think he's gonna be good this year. The Eagles have gotten off to a great start but I suspect that'll come back to earth after the league has more video of the new QB. The Eagles look like a 7 win team to me.
Redskins (6-10) -- The Redskins are the Buffalo Bills, aren't they? Born to be 6-10: not good enough for the playoffs, not bad enough for a top draft pick. Just right there in the middle, year after year. Likewise, they're stuck in the middle with Kirk Cousins: he won't be back next year because if he's good, he'll split and if he's bad they won't want him. An odd situation for a QB. This team has its moments but it already feels like they're just playing out the string til next year.
Vikings (12-4) -- In my pre-pre-season preidctions I had the Vikings going 0-16. On second thought I decided that not only were they not a historically bad team but they were actually probably pretty good. Now that I've seen that D for 4 weeks, I think they might be the best team in the league. That D is scary and the offense (even w/out Adrian Peterson) is patient, nimbly picking their spots and even the special teams looks capable of timely big play or two. Kinda love the coach, Sam Bradford is doing what you need a QB to do and that D line is probably the best in the league. I like them to win 12 games and the division (and be a tough out in the playoffs).
Packers (10-6) -- After all these years with Aaron Rodgers, the Packers still have no offensive identity, isn't that weird? I know what I'm getting with Brady or Roethlisberger or even Andy Dalton. But with the Packers its still just Rodgers running for his life and getting lucky enough to make the playoffs. The D is fine but nothing superlative, the special teams, too, is middle of the road, the O line isn't great and the skill players are so-so. Rodgers really is a badass, he's been carrying this team and I guess he will again. I still like them to make playoffs with 10 wins.
Lions (4-12) -- The Lions are the bizarro Titans: the Titans are plucky and will play hard enough to keep them in games despite their mediocre talent while the Lions have a weird sense of veteran entitlement and will probably play themselves out of games that they ought to be in. Stafford has moments of badass-ery and then throws 3 straight picks. Everything about the team is utterly mediocre but good enough to maybe sneak some W's at the end of the year if Stafford can get hot. (Can't believe I'm saying this but I can see the Lions being next year's pre-season dark horse darling) 4 wins sounds about right: they're about a notch below the Bills and Redskins.
Bears (3-13) -- Man, I think the Bears are terrible. I wasn't expecting them to be good this year but I thought middle of the road and they are not that, they're over in the ditch. I don't see this team wins at all, they're playing for a draft pick already.
Falcons (10-6) -- The Falcons in the Matty Ryan years have consistently been a tease: keep waiting for that offense to take off and it never does. This year it has. The D is not very good (though are showing signs of improvement) but Ryan and Julio Jones have that attack humming. With their division rivals all disappointing expectations so far, it feels like the Falcons are on the right path. I'm only giving them 10 wins though it feels like they ought to move, right? I gotta feeling they give away games late in the season and back into the playoffs.
Panthers (9-7) -- Last year the Panthers pummeled everyone (until the Super Bowl) and while we all knew they weren't gonna be that good again, I expected them to be among the best in the NFC. But so far they seem to have regressed all over the field: the pass D isn't getting as many stops and Cam is looking decidedly human so far. I think they'll pull it together but I'm guessing it'll be too late and they fall short of the playoffs. I still like them to get 9 wins and sneak a wild card.
Bucs (6-10) -- Yes, I fell for the Buc hype again this season. I thought the D would regain classic form, Jamies would take a big step up and they'd ride a mediocre strength of schedule into the playoffs. Not so much. They've got decent talent on both sides of the ball which only means we'll be falling for the hype again next year. The good news is they're not a retread 6-10 (like the Redskins), they're an up-and-coming 6-10 (like the Titans). The bad news is they ain't making the playoffs this year (and we were all fools for thinking they could).
Saints (5-11) -- Do these guys even care any more? Brees is still good enough to muscle a few W's off teams that don't bring their best game but if the opponent shows out strong, the Saints don't have much of a shot at a win. Sad but true: Brees isn't the problem but the solution only comes when he leaves.
Seahawks (12-4) -- The offensive line has been shaky so far this year but that feels like a problem that can be corrected. Otherwise, I think they're looking pretty good on both sides of the ball and by the end of the year could be a real juggernaut heading into the playoffs. I think they easily take the division and get 12 wins.
Cards (9-7) -- I thought the Cards were really impressive last year (until that egg they laid in the NFC Championship) and it felt like they would have another strong year. But, like the Bengals, they seem like a team that peaked last year and missed their opportunity. Carson Palmer looks done and the rest of the squad is not bad but seems on the way down. I bet they'll be streaky for the rest of the year, a handful of a solid weeks followed by a handful of puzzling losses. I'll give 'em 9 wins just because they were so fun to watch last year.
Rams (8-8) -- Perfect Jeff Fisher 8-8 team. Great D line but nothing else ever comes together. They have moments of dominating defense that'll win a few games but the offense just seems like a project. Good enough to get to 8 wins, I guess.
Niners (3-13) -- Yeech, these guys are terrible. God, it wasn't that long ago that were talented and deep at every position and now they're just awful. (Hmm, could Kentucky pry Chip Kelly away from San Fran after one horrible year? Just a thought)
My newly re-jiggered playoff picture: Panthers over Cowboys, Packers over Falcons; Seahawks over Packers, Vikings over Panthers; Seahawks over Vikings.
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