NFL Week Four (NFC)

After four weeks it's time to reevaluate how the NFL looks.

Cowboys (9-7) -- Without Romo the Cowboys were left with a rookie QB to lead them. My initial thought was they struggle for a while then pull it together when Romo returned; but Dak Prescott has been pretty good and it looks like Romo will return to a strong squad hungry for a playoff run. Or...maybe not. Now it feels to me that they'll succeed just fine with Dak and be ready for a string of injuries and setbacks when Romo returns. I'm not saying the Cowboys are worse than I thought but I'm not saying they're better either. They're strangely just about the same. I still like them to win 9 games and the division. 

Giants (8-8) -- The Giants are ruled by the Eli Principle: Eli makes bad teams good and good teams bad. So are the Giants good enough to sabotaged by Eli or poor enough to be elevated by him? Ehh, I think this year is kind of a wash. The D line isn't bad, I like receivers but the rest of the team is kinda middling. I think Eli won't have that much to say about how far this team goes. They're not bad, they'll hang around and wait for the Cowboys to blow it but I think they're a middle of the road team in the end. 8 wins and no playoffs.

Eagles (7-9) -- Everyone loves Carson Wentz and I don't disagree, the kid looks like he knows what he doing out there. But I'm afraid his success will only screw up the rebuilding process (like when the Niners brought in Mariucci to take the fall after Siefert only for Jeff Garcia to shock the hell out of everyone). The Eagles were supposed to be mailing it in this season (the Hinkie Effect) but the rook is actually pretty good, which will only drop the draft position and distort next year's schedule. Fortunately I don't think he's gonna be good this year. The Eagles have gotten off to a great start but I suspect that'll come back to earth after the league has more video of the new QB. The Eagles look like a 7 win team to me. 

Redskins (6-10) -- The Redskins are the Buffalo Bills, aren't they? Born to be 6-10: not good enough for the playoffs, not bad enough for a top draft pick. Just right there in the middle, year after year. Likewise, they're stuck in the middle with Kirk Cousins: he won't be back next year because if he's good, he'll split and if he's bad they won't want him. An odd situation for a QB. This team has its moments but it already feels like they're just playing out the string til next year. 

Vikings (12-4) -- In my pre-pre-season preidctions I had the Vikings going 0-16. On second thought I decided that not only were they not a historically bad team but they were actually probably pretty good. Now that I've seen that D for 4 weeks, I think they might be the best team in the league. That D is scary and the offense (even w/out Adrian Peterson) is patient, nimbly picking their spots and even the special teams looks capable of timely big play or two. Kinda love the coach, Sam Bradford is doing what you need a QB to do and that D line is probably the best in the league. I like them to win 12 games and the division (and be a tough out in the playoffs). 

Packers (10-6) -- After all these years with Aaron Rodgers, the Packers still have no offensive identity, isn't that weird? I know what I'm getting with Brady or Roethlisberger or even Andy Dalton. But with the Packers its still just Rodgers running for his life and getting lucky enough to make the playoffs. The D is fine but nothing superlative, the special teams, too, is middle of the road, the O line isn't great and the skill players are so-so. Rodgers really is a badass, he's been carrying this team and I guess he will again. I still like them to make playoffs with 10 wins.  

Lions (4-12) -- The Lions are the bizarro Titans: the Titans are plucky and will play hard enough to keep them in games despite their mediocre talent while the Lions have a weird sense of veteran entitlement and will probably play themselves out of games that they ought to be in. Stafford has moments of badass-ery and then throws 3 straight picks. Everything about the team is utterly mediocre but good enough to maybe sneak some W's at the end of the year if Stafford can get hot. (Can't believe I'm saying this but I can see the Lions being next year's pre-season dark horse darling) 4 wins sounds about right: they're about a notch below the Bills and Redskins. 

Bears (3-13) -- Man, I think the Bears are terrible. I wasn't expecting them to be good this year but I thought middle of the road and they are not that, they're over in the ditch. I don't see this team wins at all, they're playing for a draft pick already.  

Falcons (10-6) -- The Falcons in the Matty Ryan years have consistently been a tease: keep waiting for that offense to take off and it never does. This year it has. The D is not very good (though are showing signs of improvement) but Ryan and Julio Jones have that attack humming. With their division rivals all disappointing expectations so far, it feels like the Falcons are on the right path. I'm only giving them 10 wins though it feels like they ought to move, right? I gotta feeling they give away games late in the season and back into the playoffs. 

Panthers (9-7) -- Last year the Panthers pummeled everyone (until the Super Bowl) and while we all knew they weren't gonna be that good again, I expected them to be among the best in the NFC. But so far they seem to have regressed all over the field: the pass D isn't getting as many stops and Cam is looking decidedly human so far. I think they'll pull it together but I'm guessing it'll be too late and they fall short of the playoffs. I still like them to get 9 wins and sneak a wild card. 

Bucs (6-10) -- Yes, I fell for the Buc hype again this season. I thought the D would regain classic form, Jamies would take a big step up and they'd ride a mediocre strength of schedule into the playoffs. Not so much. They've got decent talent on both sides of the ball which only means we'll be falling for the hype again next year. The good news is they're not a retread 6-10 (like the Redskins), they're an up-and-coming 6-10 (like the Titans). The bad news is they ain't making the playoffs this year (and we were all fools for thinking they could). 

Saints (5-11) -- Do these guys even care any more? Brees is still good enough to muscle a few W's off teams that don't bring their best game but if the opponent shows out strong, the Saints don't have much of a shot at a win. Sad but true: Brees isn't the problem but the solution only comes when he leaves.

Seahawks (12-4) -- The offensive line has been shaky so far this year but that feels like a problem that can be corrected. Otherwise, I think they're looking pretty good on both sides of the ball and by the end of the year could be a real juggernaut heading into the playoffs. I think they easily take the division and get 12 wins. 

Cards (9-7) -- I thought the Cards were really impressive last year (until that egg they laid in the NFC Championship) and it felt like they would have another strong year. But, like the Bengals, they seem like a team that peaked last year and missed their opportunity. Carson Palmer looks done and the rest of the squad is not bad but seems on the way down. I bet they'll be streaky for the rest of the year, a handful of a solid weeks followed by a handful of puzzling losses. I'll give 'em 9 wins just because they were so fun to watch last year.

Rams (8-8) -- Perfect Jeff Fisher 8-8 team. Great D line but nothing else ever comes together. They have moments of dominating defense that'll win a few games but the offense just seems like a project. Good enough to get to 8 wins, I guess. 

Niners (3-13) -- Yeech, these guys are terrible. God, it wasn't that long ago that were talented and deep at every position and now they're just awful. (Hmm, could Kentucky pry Chip Kelly away from San Fran after one horrible year? Just a thought)

My newly re-jiggered playoff picture: Panthers over Cowboys, Packers over Falcons; Seahawks over Packers, Vikings over Panthers; Seahawks over Vikings.

NFL Week Four (AFC)

In the pre-season I made team by team projections. Then I second guessed myself. Now we've seen four weeks of football and its time for a proper power ranking. Since my interest is largely self-referential, I'll look at each team through the prism of my previous projections of them. Where was I right? Where was I wrong?

Patriots -- I had them winning 12 games this year...yeah, I was right. Even with that unusual loss at home to Buffalo, they're still 3-1 without Brady or Gronk in a division that looks so so soft. The D is a little unpredictable, but at their best they look pretty damn good. Hard to imagine the Pats not making the playoffs in the AFC, clearly they're still the face to win that division and wouldn't be shocked if they went undefeated for the rest of the year.

Dolphins -- I initially picked the DOlphins to win 7 games, then reconsidered them up to 9. Ehhhh, that D line is a one of the best in the league but nothing else about the team is particularly noteworthy. That said, right around 8 wins doesn't seem inconceivable considering that their D looks better than Buffalo or NYJ and their QB, while underwhelming, doesn't look to be a crippling drawback (as seems possible for their division foes). I think I still like the Dolphins to finished 2nd in the East, though I don't see them competing for a Wild Card.

Bills -- The Bills have some potential upside (interesting weapons on offense that have yet to gel) but debilitating downside, too (flaky pass defense, a coach permanently on the hot seat, an offense that could turn to mush at a moment's notice). The thing about this team is they'll have some great games and they'll have some truly awful games, making them either the most exciting 6-10 team ever or the shakiest 11-5 team ever. I think they're closer to the 6-10 team.

Jets -- I wasn't won over by the emergency signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick, dubious about the signing of Matt Forte, no idea about the coach, no real impression of the D or the skill players on offense. Okay: I really like that D line and the receiving corps has good variation and depth. That's it. If Fitzpatrick gets it together, the Jets can win some games but unless he does (and I doubt he will) the Jets are the classic 5-11 kinda squad.

Bengals -- I watched the Bengals a lot last year and I was impressed. But rather than keeping that vibe going, it increasingly looks like they had their chance last year and missed it. The offense isn't as crisp as last year, the D isn't as strong. They don't suck but they are decidedly 2nd tier in the AFC rather than being the pick to go to the Super Bowl (as they were for me in pre-season). I still think they're a playoff team but I don't think they're as consistently good as the Steelers. I expect them to compete with the AFC West leftovers for a playoff spot and I think they'll take one. But they'll ride into the post-season as a Wild Card rather than a division winner. Bengals are a solid 10-6 team.

Steelers -- The D is still a work in progress and the offense is kinda one-dimensional. However, that one dimension is maybe the best in the league. Ben over the top to those receivers followed by doses of underneath to RBs in the flat is pretty tough to stop. There are pass rushes that can interrupt that and there are offenses that could maybe match the attack, but week in/week out the Steelers are gonna be one of the better teams in the league. I'll take them to go 12-4.

Ravens -- I had the Ravens winning 3 games. They've already won 3 games (squeakers over the Bills, Browns and Jags), seems like they're gonna be awesome, right? Ehhh, I'm not sold. Flacco is firmly on the high side of mediocre: better than middle of the road but not much. The D doesn't suck but doesn't make plays, the O line is suspect and the skill players are not ideal. Okay, this team is already better than I thought they'd be and they'll probably win a few more squeakers (they'll win the types of games the Chargers are losing) but I don't see them winning much more than that. Ravens 6-10.

Browns -- I had the Browns winning 2 games because...well...even the crappiest teams usually win 2 games. The Browns are probably the crappiest team. So I'll stick with 2-14 for the Browns.

Texans -- I had the Texans winning 9 games and their division. Strangely enough even though they've lost JJ Watt for the year and Brock Osweiler is not terribly impressive at QB, even though the Texans are clearly not as good as I thought they could be, I still think they win 9 games and the division. That division stinks and the Texans feel like the least stinky, so I'm sticking with what I thought before.

Jags -- The Jags were one of everyone's favorite dark horse team in pre-season and I kinda got swept up in that. The Jags have sucked for a while now and though they look better than they have in a while, they still don't seem dangerous at all. I thought they'd win 8 games and maybe be a spoiler team and while they're not that good, they look like the kinda team that could sneak some W's late in the season. I'll take them to win 7 games.

Colts -- Andrew Luck is truly one of the best QBs in the league but, my god, the rest of the team is awful. Frank Gore is still surprisingly effective but the O line is abysmal, the receivers are disappointing, the special teams has no magic and the D is one of the worst in the league. And, just to pile on, I think their coach is pretty terrible. But they still have Luck so I'll give them 5 wins.

Titans -- The Titans are plucky, not good but they'll work hard and sneak some wins that they shouldn't get. But they'll lose more than they win and occasionally just look awful. They look like a classic 6-10 team.

Raiders -- I thought the Raiders would bust out, taking steps forward on both sides of the ball. Well, they have moments of bust out but just as often play the youngsters they are. I think they're gonna be pretty good but the lack of veteran presence is gonna fail them a few times this year, while youthful exuberance will only help them once or twice. I still like the Raiders to take a Wild Card and win 10 games.

Chiefs -- I thought the Chiefs would build on last year's improvement and firmly take a Wild Card spot. But so far they don't look quite as good as last year, they can beat bad teams but I'm not sure they can hang with good ones. I think they go 9-6 and miss the playoffs.

Broncos -- I thought the Broncos would miss Jackson and Trevathan on D and struggle at the QB spot on offense and take a serious step back. Nope. That D is every bit as fierce as last year (Von Miller looks ready to jump from Super Bowl MVP to League MVP). And I've been impressed with both of their young QBs, Simien and Lynch both look capable of being goo enough. The running game is solid, the special teams are solid, the overall vibe is exactly where it ought to be. The Broncos are much better than I would've thought. I like them to win the west and go 12-4.

I've shuffled the rankings but I'm still in on 5 (Pats, Bengals, Steelers, Texans, Raiders) of my 6 playoff projections with the Broncos supplanting the Chiefs. So to re-prosecute the playoff projections: Steelers over Raiders, Bengals over Texans; Pats over Bengals, Steelers over Broncos; Steelers over Pats for the AFC final.