2023-24 NFL (Conference Round Playoffs)

Division

Texans 10-34 Ravens

I've been saying all season that the Ravens had a knack for getting everyone's worst game; so when the Texans go for 5 false starts (each of of their O-linemen had one, how unifying!), a delay of game and a neutral zone infraction--do you see what I mean? The Ravens didn't do any of that. The Ravens did a hell of a job keeping QB Stroud from getting going but the pre-snap penalties did more to hold the Texans back than the Ravens did. 10-10 at halftime but the Texans just couldn't get stops in the 2nd half, they couldn't move the ball and it looked like they were playing in mud. The Ravens took a while to get going but this game was never in any doubt. The Texans had a few nice W's down the stretch, had a good season, looks like offensive ROY belongs to them, and they're in a shaky division, so the future is looking so much better now than it was a year ago. But the Ravens were better.

Packers 21-24 Niners

Wow, great game! I still stand by the notion that the reason the Packers beat the Cowboys had more to do with the Cowboys than the Packers, but I was remiss in not pointing out how great the Packers O-line played in that game. And that O-line was great again against the Niners. The Packers have their RB and their QB, bring back that O-line (give raises where needed) and pray that those receivers play as hard as they did the last 6 weeks, spend all your draft capital on defense and I'd say the Packers are ready to start next season today--clearly in the lead for the big bump team. As for the Niners, well, they did what they needed to do to win but when Deebo Samuel went out and never came back, it was a reminder that as good as this squad is on paper, in real life it is a bit fragile. Throw in that DE Bossa didn't do much (hell, I forgot DE Chase Young was even out there!) and even though LB Fred Warner seemed to be everywhere, the Packers still moved the ball convincingly. So how do we see this? I'm going with the Packers were the shocker team that played their best football in the playoffs, got one big upset and almost got another. The Niners did what they needed to do but I was expecting a thrashing and it didn't come and that's...awkward.

Bucs 23-31 Lions

Fun game, 1st half was back and forth action, the 2nd half was a chess match, riveting entertainment throughout. The Lions were the better side all year and I thought that carried through this game, although it was a struggle, Tampa Bay didn't make it easy, All season long the Bucs were the anything-can-happen team: maybe they light you up for 40 or maybe they turn the ball over, convert no 3rd downs and are long dead by halftime. This was maybe the best game they played all year and even though I was impressed with their secondary,  they just couldn't keep the Lions out of the end zone. Good year for the Bucs, I can see this roster being totally different next year but that division is still winnable, so wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucs back in the playoffs next year. 

Chiefs 27-24 Bills

Another heartbreaker for the Bills (wide right, seriously?), but deep down we all know they were gonna lose in OT anyway. The Bills defense was decimated by injuries, the sheer amount of talent gone became too much to overcome and the Chiefs moved the ball without effort from beginning to end. The Bills moved the ball well, too, and they were in position to tie the game late, so a pretty even contest, though the Chiefs D was one of the best in the league this year while the Bills were at 3rd or 4th string all over the place. The Bills adopted a more conservative game plan (thank god!), running the ball effectively, piling up 1st downs and piling up time of possession; but if they had done from the 1st week of the season, perhaps they wouldn't have had so many defensive injuries. I still believe in the Bills offense (re: Josh Allen and whoever they give him to catch the ball) and I kinda still believe in the Bills defense, but they need to find a holistic way to move the ball without putting their own defense in tough positions. Good W for the Chiefs (I mean, Mahomes). 

Conference 

Chiefs @ Ravens (-4) (44.5)

Can Mahomes go into Baltimore and will a victory against a team that has kinda dominated (but has also been less impressive than most "dominant" teams)? Yeah, I think so. Mahomes is pretty great, man, already in the GOAT debate and he's still pretty young. Can the Chiefs D get stops and corral MVP Lamar Jackson? Yeah, I think so. The Chiefs D is by far the best that they've had in the Mahomes era, feels like the Chiefs have hit the kind of balance that great franchises dream of. So am I picking the Chiefs? No. I've been suggesting that the Ravens are fraudulent and that the day would come when they would meet an opponent that got the best of them and I think I still believe that....but the Chiefs aren't that team. I would've given Buffalo a better shot at keeping pace with the Ravens than the Chiefs. The Dolphins and Bills defenses were both torn to shreds by injuries, so the playoff matches the Chiefs have played so far were 3rd rate at best, but that is not the case with the Ravens, whose defense was better anyway and isn't particularly racked by injuries. So Mahomes will face more intensity than anything he's seen so far. Can the Chiefs defense fustigate Lamar? Yeah, that pass rush is pretty good, they're a veteran crew and they've played all year. So am I picking the Chiefs? No. I think the Ravens maintain a lead throughout, the Chiefs hang around and keep the game competitive. But by the 4th quarter, Lamar will have figured out what he needs to do and the Mahomes will be completely worn down to nothing, both teams will score, both teams will get stops, but the Ravens will be the better side. Tough to bet against Mahomes but I think the Ravens are too good for Mahomes to take single-handedly. So a relatively close game, but I like the Ravens to be in control throughout and to separate down the stretch. Ravens 31-24 (Ravens and the over).

Lions @ Niners (-7) (51.5)

The Niners at full strength are the best team in the league; that said, they're not at full strength very often. Last week, the Packer O-line held them at bay for the most part but the Niners talent came to the fore and pulled out the victory. The Lions are pretty good when they bring it but you just know they're going to make x amount of mistakes per game. Can the Niners take full advantage of the Lions sleepy moments? I think the Niners need to get a lead early, which will allow them to take more chances on both sides of the ball. If the Niners can make the Lions play catch-up from the jump, then I think they'll win comfortably. The Lions best bet is to be slow and steady, avoid giving up big plays on defense and chew the clock with a running game on offense; if they can do that, I think they can hang with the Niners and be in position to take advantage of Niner mistakes. This game comes down to mistakes: which team will capitalize and which will give up their advantage. Well, as I said, the Niners at their best are the best team and while I'm skeptical of their BEST best, I think they get close enough to it to hold off a furious Lion comeback in the 4th quarter. I'll take the Niners 31-27 (Lions and the over), but if there's gonna be a blowout on Sunday, it'll be this game.

2024 Australian Open (semifinals and finals)

Women's

(4) Gauff 6/4 - 7/6 (2) Sabalenka

Sabalenka opened the semifnal match in full fury mode to take a break right away from Gauff. My mantra: the Russians in tennis have big talent and big blowups (e: big game but big headcase) and early on Sabalenka was using her power to push Gauff out of her comfort zone. But as the 1st set wore on, it felt like Gauff was making better use of Sabalenka's fury than Sabalenka was and Gauff was able to get the break back and take it to a tiebreak. Then the surprise happened: rather than completely falling apart, Sabalenka showed great discipline through the tiebreak and took the 1st set. From there it felt over to me, it did not feel like Gauff was gonna come back and when Sabalenka went up a break in the 2nd, it didn't feel like Sabalenka was going to blow it. Sabalenka at her best is maybe the most talented in all of women's tennis right now, but she melts down, too, and Gauff is the kind of hardnosed competitor than can take advantage when Sabalenka flails. That scenario was on the table but Sabalenka played with wisdom and used her talent instead of her fury to play a successful match. I love Gauff, she moves like a cat out there, and she's got the mind of a savvy veteran (though she looks like a little kid--a very muscular little kid!), and she's still got a lot ahead of her. But Sabalenka played well here and didn't make the big mistakes and when she does that, she's probably the best in the world right now. 

Yastremska 4/4 - 6/6 (12) Zheng

The Ukrainian-born Yastremska had some good moments early on, but she looked to be in over her head pretty quick. She rose up from the qualifiers, meaning she played an extra week of hard tennis and I think her body just wore out and whatever zing her game had, it just wasn't semifinal quality. Zheng just looked cooler in return and her defensive style allowed her to keep so many rallies going that Zheng played herself into having more opportunities than Yastremska could ever get for herself. Nice run for Yastremska, but Zheng was the better player. Zheng's ability to defend so well will give her a real chance against Sabalenka in the final: the key is to keep rallies going and let Sabalenka  frustrate herself.

(12) Zheng 3/2 -6/6 (2) Sabalenka

Zheng has a great ability to play defense, to place her returns in a variety of places and paces. I thought if she could just fight off Sabalenka's physical strength and play some frustrating defense, then it was certainly possible that Sabalenka was lose her shit and Zheng might have a shot at an upset. But, no. Sabalenka played a very mellow brand of tennis and won convincingly and quickly. Good run for the defending champ, I really do think Sabalenka is the best in the world right now (when she keeps it together). 

Men's

(1) Djokovic 1/2/7/3 - 6/6/6/6 (4) Sinner

Wow, haven't seen Djokovic get handled like this in a long long time. Sinner (and Alcaraz) can beat Djokovic, there are a few guys at the top that can hang and maybe steal a victory from Djoker, but Sinner can go toe-to-toe with Djokovic and beat him at his own game. Not to say that all is lost for Djokjovic, but this is what Djokovic did to Federer back in the day: provide him a formidable opponent, not just a guy good enough to get lucky. Sinner took Djokovic's first two service games--stunning!--and then went up early again in the 2nd set. Djokovic came to life in the 3rd set (too late) but he drove Sinner to a tiebreak and suddenly it felt like maybe a titanic Djokovic comeback was in the offing. But, no, that went away pretty quick in the 4th and Sinner cruised to victory. Good match but really only because we saw the giant get bested--again, its not over for Djokovic, he's still better than just about everyone else on earth. But he's not the only predator in the jungle anymore, he's got real competition now and we'll see how much hardware he can steal on his way out. 

(3) Medvedev 5/3/7/7/6 - 7/6/6/6/3 (6) Zverev

I couldn't get through this one. I knew it was gonna be at least a 4-hour match and I just knew I wouldn't be able to sustain. Zverev took the first two sets and even though I knew there was a long way to go, I retired thinking he would be the victor. Nope. Medvedev came back from 2 sets down and now, of course, I wish I'd watched more of it. Both of these guys are nice but both are too self-destructive to be able to get it done. Does Sinner just beat Djokovic or does he beat the other guys, too? I'm betting he does, won't be easy, but I think Sinner takes Medvedev.

(4) Sinner 3/3/6/6/6- 6/6/4/4/3 (3) Medvedev

Medvedev is a defensive player, a grinder, a snake in the grass that seeks to survive and wear opponents down; but, whoa, that's not at all how he came to play in this Final. He attacked Sinner's serve early and often and two breaks in each of the first two sets. I know it was still going to be a long match (I believe Medvedev set the record for most sets in a single Major tourney), but I felt like Medvedev was still in his comfrort zone and ready to play a long game. But his return kinda disappeared and his ability to keep rallies going just didn't make for any momentum turns for him. Sinner was shellshocked early on, but he kept his head and the 3rd set he got his serve working. I feel bad for Medvedev, this was his best shot at winning another Major and though he came out with an innovative game plan that had early success, he still can't get an audience to get on his side. Tough break. But great win for Sinner, this will not be his last Major, I'm guessing.

2023-24 NFL (Division Round Playoffs)

Wild Card

Browns 14-45 Texans

Wow, this was a drubbing. The home/road splits on the Browns defense was alarming but I ignored it because I thought they were the better team and the hotter team. Well, they weren't. QB Stroud was a fucking beast (begging the questions: were this year's Cleveland Browns better than last year's Georgia Bulldogs?) and the Texans were absolutely up to the task. The Texans were up at halftime and looking good but in the 3rd quarter the Browns gave up back-to-back pick 6's followed by a sack on 4th down and that's where I stopped watching this game. Joe Flacco turned back into a pumpkin and we got a harsh reminder that the Browns really didn't have any running game to speak of. The Browns made the most of their regular season but I think the fact that the Bengals basically no-showed all year gave this team an inflated sense of superiority. Kudos to the Texans for getting a big W in a tough spot. 

Dolphins 7-26 Chiefs

(I saw none of this game...no one I know saw this game...nice work, Peacock)

Packers 48-32 Cowboys

Wow, this was a drubbing! First things first: the Packers had the right game plan and executed nicely, good for them. But make no mistake: the reason the Packers won was because the Cowboys SUCKED in this game on both sides of the ball. The Packers did what they needed to do, but this does not convince me that the Packers are some kind of juggernaut, they just caught the Cowboys on laundry day and that's why they're moving forward. I thought WR Lamb was kinda terrible early on, everyone will blame QB Dak but I thought it was his receivers that were doing him no favors. And on defense, I gotta say after watching the Cowboys play the Bills and Dolphins down the stretch, it seemed like teams were figuring out how to scheme LB Micah Parsons, who kinda disappeared in the last month, and the Packers kept the disappearing act going. The vaunted Cowboys secondary got no stops and the pass rush was completely absent. In the 4th quarter, the Cowboys got going and put some points on the board, but don't be fooled into thinking this was some kind of shootout. Nope. The Packers dominated from start to finish--well, until they stopped playing offense in the 4th quarter--and it was because the Cowboys just didn't do anything well. Good W for the Packers, QB Love looks like the right guy in the right spot and the Packers are playing really well right now (though I don't think matters much heading to San Fran next week). As for the Cowboys, this off-season is going to suck bad. 

Rams 23-24 Lions

Fun game! This was the one game of two evenly matched teams we got this weekend. I thought the Lions were the better team but only slightly, hence the final score (basically the Rams got stuck with 2 FG's instead of an extra TD) looks right to me. Both teams ran out of gas in the 2nd half but they both played well and similarly. Not much to say about this one but I will say that the Matt Stafford-Jared Goff trade worked perfectly for both teams: Stafford won the Super Bowl that Goff couldn't and Goff won the 1st round playoff game that Stafford couldn't, they each got over the hump that the other couldn't (also the Lions drafted really well out of the all the extra picks that trading Stafford brought them). Good W for the Lions, tough L for the Rams. 

Steelers 17-31 Bills

As a Bills fan it is infuriating how inefficient the Bills offense is; if this team would settle for singles and doubles instead of tying to hit grand slams every time, they'd waltz to the Super Bowl. If they took 3rd down seriously, their time of possession would rocket off the charts. They are so maddeningly casual during the easy plays that they end up having to do way more than they need to later in the game. That said, my pre-season prediction for the Bills was that they would go 12-5 and finished 2nd in the AFC; they went 11-6 and finished 2nd in the AFC....so why are we so obsessed with pointing out what a bad season they had? Did they? Granted, the ups and downs were occasionally shocking but they got where they wanted to go so kinda seems like they're on the right track. (Well, except for the defensive injuries which keep piling up) As for the Steelers, dude, they've sucked for years, how they keep making the playoffs is a mystery--there are doctoral dissertations waiting to be written on how much undeserved success the Steelers have had in the last 5 years or so. 

Eagles 9-32 Bucs

Man, the Eagles just suck. The Cowboys had a bad day but the Eagles have been trending in the wrong direction since Thanksgiving, I just kept thinking that they had enough pride/skill/whatever to get by the so-so Bucs but this team just didn't have it (did they all hate each other or something?). The Eagles were 10-1 not that long ago, but, man, they have completely sucked since then; I can dig that they weren't as good as their record, but the way these guys went down the tubes is not like anything I've seen in a long time. They were never in this game even though the Bucs were just getting FG's. The Bucs moved the ball well and the pass rush was impressive, then again the Eagles have given up on football, so hard to tell how good the Bucs actually were in this game. Good W for the Bucs, a weird off-season is coming to Philly.

Division

Texans @ Ravens (-9.5) (43.5)

The Texans to me are the who-knows team this year. Are they really this good? Can they win in Baltimore? Do they even deserve to be in the playoffs? Did they just run into a Cleveland team that wasn't nearly as good as we thought? Who knows? I like the Ravens but I've been a little skeptical most of the year because I think they have a knack for getting everyone's worst game--I'm not saying the Ravens suck, I'm just saying I'm not sure they are as good as they look. That said, QB Lamar Jackson has been killer this season and he can pile up offense all by himself; but when he struggles, the team goes nowhere, so can the Texans bottle up Lamar? Well, that's the game right there. And I have no idea the answer to that question. The Texans are young and plucky, they looked dominant against the Browns, if Stroud can keep moving the ball, then they can hang with the Ravens. But if Lamar gets it going, the Ravens can roll up the Texans quick. Here's the deal: either the Ravens will win comfortably or, if the Texans move the ball and get some turnovers, then they can in comfortably. I think it's a game for 3 quarters, then Lamar breaks out. Ravens 31-17 (Ravens and the over).

Packers @ Niners (-10) (50.5)

The Niners are just really good on both sides of the ball. If they play mistake-free, they are the best team in the league and should roll through a team like the Packers like wet butter. I like the Packers as much as the next guy, QB Love is fitting in nicely, I think next year they'll be ready to rise up. But for now, they are not nearly as good as the Niners and frankly they should've lost to the Cowboys last week. So I think this is where it ends for the Packers. Niners 37-16 (Niners and the over).

Bucs @ Lions (-6) (49.5)

Likewise with the Packers, the Bucs are a nice team that have had a nice season but they're not really supposed to be here and I have no reason to think they will survive on past this week. The two best teams in the NFC were the Niners and the Lions; we thought the next two best teams would be the Cowboys and Eagles, but they decided to not show up. So Final Eight for the Bucs--great season! But I just don't see the Bucs scoring nearly enough to hang with the Lions. Lions 27-14 (Lions and the under)

Chiefs @ Bills (-3) (45.5)

I've been convinced all year long that the Bills are not as bad as the haters say. Yes, the Bills had weird ups and downs this season (they still can't win at NYJ or beat the Bengals), all in all they finished where they were supposed to and as awful as they were, they got the home game against the Chiefs, don't they? So what did Kansas City do this season that was so right? The Chiefs have been getting compared to the Golden State Warriors for the last few years and the comparison is apt: after all this time, the Warriors are basically just a still-great Steph and not much else and the Chiefs are just QB Mahomes all by himself out there. Pointing out all the things the Bills aren't so good at is meaningless if the other team can't take advantage--and I don't think the Chiefs can take advantage. I like the Bills to be up at halftime and though it won't be a blowout, I think the Bills control the game throughout. I still expect the 4th quarter to be crazy fun time but I like the Bills to move on. Bills 23-18 (Bills and the under)

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Weeks 8-12)

Trade

Knicks get OG Anunoby, Malachi Flynn, Precious Achiuwa; Raptors get RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, 2024 Pistons 2nd round pick

The Raptors weren't going to keep Anunoby, so they needed to get some kind of return. Knicks weren't sure what to do with Quickley, so they flipped him for Anunoby, the Knicks get bigger on the wing, the Raptors get more ballhandling and playmaking. I think Achiuwa will get playing time in New York and Flynn will likely get some 3rd string time, as well. Meanwhile, Barett gets another shot in Toronto (where he is a better fit than NYC) and I love that pick, which will likely be the #31 pick, a great pick to have. I like this trade for both teams.  

Wizards gets Marvin Bagley, Isiah Livers, two 2nd rd picks; Pistons get Mike Muscala, Danilo Galinari

This trade, on the other hand, is utterly pointless for both sides. The Wizards get a little younger...but so what? And the Pistons rotate youth for vets...but so what? Neither of these teams got better (or, to be fair, worse) in the short term or long term. Weird trade, why did anyone bother with this? 

Ownership

Mark Cuban transfers majority ownership of the Mavs to Las Vegas Sands Corp. 

This could be an indicator that NBA teams (or sport franchises, in general) have topped out in value and Cuban is a savvy investor that wants to maximize his wealth (a thought that I have had as I wonder how TV rights money could possibly keep going up). Or it could signal that Cuban in his personal life is ready to move on to other pursuits (he's won his championship, he can walk away happy). It looks to me like Cuban has sold a chunk of his share but still expects to run the team his way indefinitely. Well, that will come to an abrupt end at some point but until then Cuban has pocketed a bunch of cash and gets to tell himself that nothing has changed. But if Cuban doesn't own the team any more, then his control of the team will not continue too much longer. He's like Wile E. Coyote who has gone over the cliff but hasn't realized it yet. 

Executive Suite

GM Daryl Morey (Sixers) signs 4-year extension

My gut feeling is this is Morey collecting a payday ahead of the guillotine. On the one hand, is the ownership fires Morey, they'll have to pay him a crippling balloon payment. On the other hand, the money out was already budgeted and now they can rid themselves of Morey with a quickness when they're ready. So this might be the sign that Morey is juiced in for life....or he might be collecting one last big paycheck if the Sixers get bounced in the playoffs. We'll see.

Coach Erik Spoelstra (Heat) signs 8yr/$120m extension

Great signing! Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the league, a Heat lifer, this is a no-brainer, money well spent. 

Waivings

Dylan Windler (Knicks), Theo Maledon (Hornets), Sir'Jabari Rice (Spurs), Justin Lewis (Bulls), Kenneth Lofton Jr (Grizzlies), Miles Norris (Hawks), Jaylen Martin (Knicks), Javonte Smart (Sixers), Charles Bediako (Spurs), DaQuan Jeffries (Knicks), Dmytro Skapintsev (Knicks), Ish Wainright (Blazers), Skyler Mays (Blazers), Alex Fudge (Lakers), D'Moi Hodge (Lakers), Armoni Brooks (Nets), Lindell Wigginton (Bucks), Marques Bolden (Bucks), Taj Gibson (Knicks), Ryan Rollins (Wizards), Bismack Biyombo (Grizzlies)

Some of these guys will be back, some are gone forever now. Biyombo was with Memphis?

Extensions

Miles McBride (Knicks) 3yr/$13m

Okay. 

Kawhi Leonard 3yr/$154.2m

So Kawhi is staying with the Clippers. When he's healthy, this will look  like a bargain.

Vince Williams (Grizzlies) converts 2-way contract to 3yr deal

Okay. 

End of year contracts

Juan Toscano-Anderson (Kings), Taj Gibson (Knicks), James Johnson (Pacers), Trendon Watford (Nets) (Guaranteed for 2023-24), Vince Williams Jr (Grizzlies)

Doh! Toscano-Anderson was already waived, why sign the guy to a term deal and then cut him at this point in the season? Are there mid-season cap hold concerns? Did Toscano-Anderson just not work out?

I believe Gibson is already gone, too. I don't see why these moves are gettind made at this point in the season.

I like Trendon Watford, I think he'll get some real time with the Nets. 

2-way contracts

Drew Peterson (Celtics), Nathan Mensah (Hornets), David Duke Jr (Spurs), Henri Drell (Bulls), Theo Maledon (Suns), Vit Krejci (Hawks), Kenneth Lofton Jr (Sixers), Brandon Williams (Mavs), Mamadi Diakite (Spurs), Duane Washington Jr (Knicks), Dylan Windler (Lakers), Skylar Mays (Lakers)

A bunch of marginal guys getting shuffled around. Some of these guys will last, some won't. I still like Mays and the Lakers might be the right spot for him. 

10-Day contracts

Juan Toscano-Anderson (Kings), Hamidou Diallo (Wizards)

I was just thinking about Diallo the other day, a pretty good scorer. Diallo and Poole might be an annoying combo.

Retired

Goran Dragic, Ricky Rubio

Damn, two of my faves. Just too many young splashy guards in the league right now for these two. Dragic has been gone for a coupla years now but Rubio was having a pretty good year with the Cavs until he got hurt in 2022. Go with God, fellas, two guys I really liked a lot. 

2023-24 NFL (Playoffs Wild Card Round)

Browns (-1.5) @ Texans (o/u 44.5)

I've watched the Browns a lot this year and I've generally been pretty impressed. Their defense is maybe the best in the league and it keeps them in games even when they roll in with a backup QB--which was, like, every game this season. The Texans have a rookie QB and coach and are winning because they don't know they're supposed to (ah, I love those teams!). I'm expecting a good one here, these are two pretty good teams that aren't as good they think they are, so a lot of swagger going into this one. I like the Browns, I just think the Texans are too young to get it done. I'll say Browns 24-14 (Browns and the under)

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-4.5) (43.5)

The Dolphins have had bursts of big offense but not enough to make me think they're really all that dangerous, especially considering the cavalcade of injuries they endured down the stretch. The Chiefs have improved their defense but the offense is just Mahomes alone (oh man, that just came to me! Need a t-shirt of Mahomes in the Scream pose). But Mahomes alone is still pretty great and I think gonna be better than what the Dolphins can bring. I like the Dolphins keep it close but Chiefs move on. Chiefs 24-21 (Dolphins and the over).

Steelers @ Bills (-9.5) (33.5)

For years now (YEARS!) I've been watching the Steelers get worse and worse on offense and yet still get W's and make the playoffs. This team is not good and hasn't been good in years. Yes, the defense is still okay (but they're without TJ Watt this week) and the 3rd string QB Rudolph is better than the 2nd string (Trubisky) and arguably the 1st string (Pickett) but I'm still not buying that they can move the ball. The BIlls run defense is a little soft but I don't see the Steelers being able to take advantage. The Bills have done just enough to win this season but as weird as they were, they did finish 2nd in the AFC, which was pretty close to everyone's pre-season pick, so are we sure they had a bad season? Okay, here's the prognostication: the Steelers hit big over the top early in the game, punch Buffalo in the nose and then...do nothing for the rest of the game. Neither team is worried about the frigid conditions--hell, both these teams love that shit. I'll say Bills 27-13 (Bills and the over).

Packers @ Cowboys (-7) (50.5)

People are on the Packers, who played better down the stretch once it seemed like they finally figured out their own QB (Love is up and down but promising enough to be a keeper, I'd say). But when the Cowboys bring their A game (especially at home), they are petty damn overpowering offense. I think the Cowboys bring it, just don't see how the Packers keep up. I'll say Cowboys 38-17 (Cowboys and the over)

Rams @ Lions (-3) (51.5)

I think this could be the funnest game of a weekend full of fun games. The Rams started slow but when they play their best game, they're pretty damn good on both sides of the ball. The Lions have had highs and lows but my gut feeling is they're best is better than the Rams best. I'd love to see them both play their best but I think the Lions have a better chance of playing their best than the Rams (does that make sense?). I like the Lions in a barn burner (I think the Rams have their chance to win it and come up short). Lions 31-28 (Push and the under).

Eagles (-3) @ Bucs (43.5)

The Eagles just haven't looked interested in football for a coupla months now, not sure what their deal is, but I'd like to think they pull it together at least enough to beat the Bucs. The Bucs are the wildly unpredictable (the Colts were like this, too) team in the post-season, so if you think they're going to roll over to the Eagles, well, bet the opposite. I've factored that in, though, as I think the Eagles are bringing back their A game (for one week at least) and look to get up early and then bring the pass rush. I got Eagles 31-13 (Eagles and the over). 

2023-24 NCAA Football (Bowl Season)

Okay, the problem with college football right now is that it has suddenly become the opposite of what we always feared. For years we've been told that the playoff is undermining the regular season, but with the wave of transfers and stars sitting for the NFL draft, it is now the regular season that is exciting week after week while the bowl season is kinda boring (unless you made the final four). Though I've never been a fan of expanding the 4-team playoff we currently have, it feels like the 12-team version (starting next year?) will create more incentives for players to play instead of begging off the competition.  

Hey, college football: you've got to get these players to realize that they can cement all-time great legacies, create commodifiable personas and raise their draft stock by playing these games. The fans are watching, the attention is there, the matchups are (usually) well done, these can be exciting games that everyone wants to see and remember. The short term view of the draft impedes the long term view of living a good long life and having a full rich career that includes college highlights, as well. 

Right

Georgia Southern 21-41 Ohio

Florida A&M 30-26 Howard

New Mexico State 10-37 Fresno State

UCLA 35-22 Boise State

California 14-34 Texas Tech

Western Kentucky 38-35 Old Dominion

Fun game! Western came roaring back in the 4th quarter after going down 21-0 in the first five minutes! ODU was not that good this season, clearly overachieved in the 1st half and then just couldn't keep up down the stretch. Furious action late, a great W for WKU.

UT-San Antonio 35-17 Marshall

South Florida 45-0 Syracuse

Arkansas State 19-21 Northern Illinois

South Alabama 59-10 Eastern Michigan

Texas State 45-21 Rice

Kansas 49-36 UNLV

Virginia Tech 41-20 Tulane

(15) Louisville 28-42 Southern Cal 

(18) North Carolina State 19-28 (25) Kansas State

(14) Arizona 38-24 (12) Oklahoma

Felt like Arizona was going to pummel OU, then it felt like OU had righted the ship and we might be in for a barnburner. But instead Arizona got going again and the Sooners couldn't hang. The right outcome, though the shape of the game was a little weird. 

(22) Clemson 38-35 Kentucky

Fun game! 4th quarter was bonkers! Coming in, I thought Clemson was the better team, a team that had gotten better throughout the season and was going to beat Kentucky. Kentucky was okay this season, some weird ups and downs, not a bad team but probably not playing better than Clemson. As the game wore on, I thought Kentucky was generally the better team but then 3 straight turnovers in the 2nd half doomed them. But the 4th quarter was basically nothing but Kentucky either making big plays or giving the ball away, capped off by one last solid drive by Clemson that the Wildcats just couldn't slow down. Weird game but probably the right outcome.

(19) Oregon State 8-40 (16) Notre Dame

Yawn! Irish came to play.

(11) Mississippi 38-25 (10) Penn State

I was impressed with Ole Miss more than I thought I would be. Thought this would be nip and tuck, but not so much. Penn State just never found any offense (not a shocker, they never had much all season long).

Auburn 13-31 Maryland

(8) Georgia 63-3 (5) Florida State

Didn't watch much of this one--did anybody? Yeah, I get it: FSU was on their 3rd string QB and they basically mailed this in. But, why did get Georgia get stuck playing this team instead of one that was prepared to play--like, say, Oregon, who got stuck playing Liberty. Sorry, Seminole fans, I was never in on your squad and as the injuries mounted, your team completely melted and wasted a prime time slot against a really good team. No sympathy for Florida State--they should've been playing Liberty!

Wisconsin 31-35 (13) Louisiana State

Surprised how good this game was, I was never in on Wisconsin at any point this season. Good match from the Badgers, though, back and forth action, fun game. 

(23) Liberty 6-45 (8) Oregon

Why? Except for the fact that Oregon just couldn't solve Washington, one could make the argument that they were the #1 team this season....so why did they get stuck with Liberty? What a waste of a football game. I would've like to see Liberty against Iowa (or why not Florida State)? Could the 3rd string Seminoles have hung with Liberty? This was the clearest, worst scheduling misfire of the entire bowl season.  

(17) Iowa 0-35 (21) Tennessee

(3) Texas 31-37 (2) Washington

Wow, Washington really tried to give the game away late! But for the most part, I though UW was easily the better team from beginning to end. I'm a big fan of QB Pennix, I get that he's older but I think he can step into the NFL as a reliable backup on day one and I think somebody will grab him in the 2nd round (Patriots ought to nab him if he's there--even if they draft a QB in the 1st round, too!).

Wrong

Jacksonville State 34-31 (OT) Louisiana

Man, Louisiana really should've won this. They went up 31-24 with maybe 5 minutes left and then settled into a prevent defense that allowed Jacksonville State to dink-and-dunk their way right down the field to tie it up. There was too much time left to go into preventive shell, instead of just playing tough defense, they let plays build up in front of them and then just got swallowed up. Too bad, I really thought Louisiana was the better team.

Miami (OH) 9-13 Appalachian State

Georgia Tech 30-17 Central Florida

Troy 10-17 Duke

Georgia State 45-22 Utah State

James Madison 21-31 Air Force

Utah 7-14 Northwestern

Coastal Carolina 24-14 San Jose State

Bowling Green 24-30 Minnesota

North Carolina 10-30 West Virginia

Texas A&M 23-31 (20) Oklahoma State

(24) Southern Methodist 14-23 Boston College

Rutgers 31-24 Miami

Memphis 36-26 Iowa State

(9) Missouri 14-3 (7) Ohio State

Missouri was the best team Georgia played this season and though I didn't pick them to win (though I should have), their top 10 finish was not some SEC fetishism--it was legit, they were really good this year! We can make all the excuses about who the Buckeyes didn't bring with them (can't we just move transfer portal stuff to the spring?), the world expected THE Ohio State to put up more than 3 points. Good win for Missouri, who fustigated the Buckeyes from beginning to end. 

Toledo 15-16 Wyoming

(4) Alabama 20-27 (OT) (1) Michigan

Alabama had their shot to win and just couldn't seal the deal. Alabama's problem all year long was spotty QB and O-line play and that was on full display in this game, as QB Millroe had trouble with snaps and was virtually useless at getting the ball downfield. But when Millroe decided to run, he was effective, and Michigan's D was strangely unable to stop the one thing he was actually good at. Alabama stole the lead and felt like the better team but Michigan made the most of their final drive, got the game to OT and made plays while Bama floundered. Good W for the Wolverines, though I'm still not convinced they are better than Washington (or Georgia--or Alabama!).

Championship: Washington 13-31 Michigan 

I thought Washington was the better team most all season and I thought that even more after the semifinals. But Michigan's defense was superb in the final game, giving QB Pennix no time to throw and nowhere to put the ball. To be fair, Pennix made a lot of throws that could've been caught by NFL receivers, so I don't want to suggest that he had a bad game. No, it was that Michigan's pass rush got consistent pressure with only four rushers and the shape of the zone defense was marvelously designed. Throw in that early on Mihigan's RB's were able to go to full throttle and it made for a bottled Huskie game plan. The score looks like a blowout but Michigan scored two late TD's to blow it open, the real story of the game was that the high powered Huskie offense couldn't get going. The Wolverines ran the ball well early on and brought stifling defense throughout. 

2023-24 NFL (End of Regular Season)

The also-rans, trying to get a sense of which teams will be better or worse next year.

AFC

Bengals -- They started slow then right as it looked like they might get something going, QB Joe Burrow got hurt and though the backup wasn't bad, it killed whatever shot at the post-season they had this year. Burrow is still great but never looked sharp, I expect that offense will be good again next season. The D, though, was mediocre at best and I suspect that's mostly what they'll be looking for in the draft. Still in on this squad, Burrow is still a baller, they'll be back. (BETTER)

Jaguars -- Started off strong, dominated their London portion of the schedule, but faltered badly down the stretch. LB Josh Allen will go under the radar in DPOY votes but that's too bad because he is a monster! QB Trevor Lawrence was up and down, still a middling talent, could be great next year but it isn't a certainty. That division is still winnable, I expect the Jags to be in the mix, but they need to fatten up their roster as best they can. (I'd say BETTER)

Colts -- Could've been in the playoffs with a final game W that they just couldn't lock down. Started with a rookie QB Richardson, who was promising but unorthodox (his whole career looks like he'll always be two seconds away from a big play or a devastating injury), not clear how they go forward with him. Had pretty good success with backup QB Minshew, he'll be in demand if the Colts let him go. Weird year: they weren't good or bad, I thought they'd be awful but they weren't, but every time they looked like they might get going, they'd stumble. They overachieved and yet disappointed simultaneously. Not sure where this team goes next year but they're actually already better than I thought they would be. (Honestly NO IDEA, perhaps the widest floor to ceiling in the AFC)

Raiders -- Man, they hated their coach! They struggled most of the season, then completely mutinied on the coach and played much better once he was gone. I dunno, man, I have no idea if they're good or not. No telling what they'll be next year. It wasn't clear to me what happened to QB Garropolo, seems like he won't be back next year. No idea what this team is or where they go. (WORSE, they could be a lot better just by finding a consistent Coach-QB combo but I think there are more rising teams in the AFC than the Raiders can keep up with)

Broncos -- Started horribly, had a surprisingly nice stretch in the middle of the schedule, came back to earth and finished with manufactured controversy designed to purge QB Russell Wilson. I expect the Broncos to be more consistent next year. Whether that is consistently good or consistently bad could go either way. Feels like they've got a weird off-season coming. (BETTER, simply by removing the Russell Wilson controversy potential)

Jets -- I thought the Jets would suck even with QB Aaron Rodgers and when he got hurt on the first play of the year, well, on the one hand it felt like a total Jets move, on the other hand I wasn't expecting much anyway. The defense really is good, if they can get one more spicy Rodgers season to go with the okay running game, maybe the Jets could be good. Getting a better draft position is probably the best move for them overall anyway. (BETTER, a full season of a for-real QB with that defense and that running game almost has to be better)

Titans -- Feels like the Titans will be in major flux this off-season. They never got going on either side, even though rookie QB Will Levis was already much better than I thought he could be. I don't think they get better next year, could be moving on from Coach Vrabel and RB Derrick Henry (who may well be the big prize of the off-season for somebody), the Titans are probably moving in the wrong direction. (WORSE, hit with the rookie QB but seem to back-sliding everywhere else)

Chargers -- Another team that benefitted mightily from ditching their awful coach, too late to make a difference this season but next year this offense might be what it's supposed to be. Well....until you realize how far over the cap the Chargers were with this roster that never went anywhere, so they may be in for major changes on both sides of the ball. The time spent indulging their brutal coach may set this team back for years to come. Do they trade QB Justin Herbert and start over? Or do they swing for the fences and take a run at Derrick Henry? I dunno, those are both probably bad ideas. (WORSE....I don't see this situation being better next year, yipes!)

Pats -- The talk is that Coach Belichick is moving on but I don't buy it. The defense was still pretty good but brutal QB play for the last few years has doomed this team. Belichick is not a tank commander, but it seems pretty clear they didn't do much to field a proper offense, so I don't think they're as bad as they looked this season. They've got the #3 pick, which will undoubtedly be used on a QB, we'll see if that makes the difference. (Hot take: QB Mac Jones will be Josh Allen's backup in Buffalo next year, bet on it) (BETTER, this team isn't this bad, not to say they're a lock for the playoffs or anything, but they'll definitely be better next year)

NFC

Seahawks -- I dunno, I was never in on this team and yet they hung around and had moments and it feels like just a few changes might make this team really good again. On the other hand, the Niners are stacked right now and the Rams opossum-ed their way into the playoffs and as bad as the Cards looked all season, they still beat the Seahawks, so maybe the ship has sailed on the Pete Carroll Seahawks. They're currently right in the middle of the pack, which is kinda the worst place to be in sports. Are they just a few moves away or is total teardown time? (WORSE, just not in a position to get better unless they make major changes and I doubt they will (or that that would work anyway))

Saints -- I never liked the look of this team all year long and yet, like the Seahawks, they hung around and had their chances. I suspect QB Derek Carr will not be back, not sure if QB Jameis Winston will be back either, so are they trading up in the draft or taking a run at a mid-tier QB for next year? The defense was okay, as was the special teams but there was not much magic on the offensive side, don't see how that improves next year. (WORSE, as annoying as their QB play was this year, I doubt it gets better next year)

Vikings -- Lost QB Kirk Cousins, I guess he'll be ready for next season, had some ups and downs and they still have Justin Jefferson (IMHO, the finest WR in the biz right now) and an okay defense. If they can sprinkle in some depth, keep Jefferson healthy and get Cousins back, the Vikings can be pretty good again right away. Disappointing season but not devastating. (BETTER, they just need to get back to normal, which is already better)

Bears -- Awful awful awful early on, then turned a corner and showed some real spice on the offensive side. Okay, all year long I've been saying they should trade QB Justin Fields and prepare their #1 pick for USC's Caleb Williams....but....I've flip-flopped! I was never out on Fields--I was out on the Bears!--but I like what they did on D this year, Fields matured nicely, now I think they should trade the #1 pick for as many picks as they can get, build around Fields and take a run at the best pass catchers the free agent market has to offer. The Bears weren't great this year but they showed enough life that it makes me think Fields can be really good and the defense can improve, too. If they trade Fields and blow it up, they'll be starting over from scratch but the last 6 weeks or so of the season was something to build on rather than discard. Curious to see what they do, they are in the driver's seat on draft night. (Flip a coin; I think keeping Fields will make them better next year but overhauling will not make them better next year)

Falcons -- Man, if they just had a QB this would've been a pretty good team! I wondered why they didn't trade for Justin Fields in July (or August or September or October or November--by December it was too late!), and I'm still convinced that if they had, they would've won their division and wouldn't have fired their coach (yeah, he's already gone). The offense has weapons but no one to pull the trigger, this was the problem all year and it still will be until they get a QB (or until the roster just naturally falls apart). The Falcons in a way are the most disappointing team because they really only have one clear problem--and they knew from day one! (BETTER, whatever they come up with at QB, it'll be better than this year)

Giants -- Overachieved last year, underachieved this year, seems about par for an NYC squad, no? The right QB could really make a difference here and still not sure if Daniel Jones is that guy. Is there any chance the Giants make a splash on draft night? (BETTER simply by being more consistent)

Commanders -- For a while now the Commanders have been the kind of team that starts balling out once it becomes clear they have no shot of winning. I don't know how that changes. They have the #2 pick in the draft, so they're guaranteed to have a shiny new QB next season, will it be the right one? (Magic 8 ball says: Outlook not good) (WORSE, because there's no reason to think a rookie QB will make a difference right away)

Cards -- Didn't really try to be good this year, QB Kyler Murray missed the first 10 games, they gave away the QB (Dobbs) they had, and yet still seemed kinda dangerous at times and ended up with the #4 pick (a WR I imagine), so they put forth zero effort and got rewarded. I have no idea if this team is ready for next year but they'll have a raft of good draft picks to add to the roster, so don't be shocked if they're awesome next season (especially if the Seahawks flail, the Niners get injured and the Rams just rest on their laurels). (BETTER, weirdly it feels like everything is lining up for them, I could see the Cards really good next year outta nowhere)

Panthers -- Disaster from beginning to end. And they don't even have their #1 pick to show for it. (You realize that the #1 pick in the NFL draft is probably the most precious commodity in all of sports and the Panthers just gave it away for some magic beans!). And their #1 pick from last year, QB Bryce Young, is not the guy they need or want (I didn't even like him at Alabama! You think he's gonna be good on the worst NFL team in the league?), so they are already in line for next year's #1 pick. Total disaster, no upside to this season, worst season possible, worst season in many years by any team (thank god no one gives a shit about Charlotte or they would've made for a late more talk show fodder). (Oh my god, I can't believe I'm saying this but....WORSE, this team has nothing right now and another bad draft is awaiting? .....Oh, man, this team may well have had the worst year ever but it can still get worse)