Fun game! The danger here was that either Colombia would mail it in or that Peru just wouldn't be up to putting on a show. Neither of those scenarios came to pass, although it took Colombia a while to get going. Peru was up 1-0 at halftime because they were able to stretch Colombia's defense out of shape and took advantage with a sick strike the keeper couldn't get to. Colombia, on the other hand, could not find its way through Peru's defense in the 1st half, but stepped up their game after halftime. They tied it up early on a sweet free kick from about 25 yards out (just snuck through the wall, man) and took the lead after a brilliant kick out pass from goalie to forward. Peru snuck in a corner late, felt like PK's were coming. But Colombia connected on a brilliant rip from outside the box in extra time, to steal the W. Great finish to a really fun game. The 2nd half was non-stop action, lot of good rips on goal, some good saves, too.
Argentina 1-0 Brazil
Compared to the 3rd place game, the Championship seemed rather subdued. Both teams played well but both defenses really kept the danger at bay. Except for one play, when the Brazilian defense got beat over the top by DiMaria, who had way too much time and space to leisurely float it over the keeper, neither team really came close to cracking the backline. Oh, a moment or two here and there (Brazil had a goal taken off for offside--the correct call--and Messi had a wide open look late that he just fell asleep on), but considering the sheer amount of hall of famers on the field, there was surprisingly little danger and it never really felt like anyone was gonna take control of the match. Not surprised that one goal is all it took, but the play itself was a weird brain fart of the Brazilian D, in an otherwise air-tight match.
England 1-2 (PKs) Italy
Wow! What an opener for the English, barely even settled into their seats and they score on their first possession, while the Italian defense is still getting warmed up. The rest of the 1st half was a bit of a snooze, England kept trying to establish control, Italy had a coupla so-so chances. England scoring so quick, though, pushed Italy into hero ball much earlier than they had anticipated, which I thought made the 2nd half kinda exciting. England didn't attack much, Harry Kane, for example, I thought was mostly invisible. That could be because the Italian back line was outstanding (long a wall of Draymond Greens!) or it could be because England was just half-assing their way to OT. The PK's did not go well for England, but that's just how PK's go, man, the trick is to not be in the situation. Both teams played well throughout the tourney and the Final was a good one. Great win for Italy!
I've always thought Ashleigh Barty was uniquely built to win championships because she's so cool out there and yet when she gets deep in the Slams, she seems to get shook which is exactly what she doesn't otherwise display. Against Kerber she got up a break early and cruised through the 1st set. In the 2nd set, Kerber got a break on her quickly and we seemed destined for a 3rd set, but Barty got her break back and Kerber seemed completely devastated in the tie break. Kerber is good but when she gave up her advantage in the 2nd set, she kinda packed it in allowing Barty to get by in a relatively easy going straight sets.
(2) Sabalenka 7/4/4 - 5/6/6 (8) Pliskova
I thought Sabalenka had the higher ceiling talent-wise, her movement was impressive and she could rip a forehand. But Pliskova played like the wily veteran and played a smoother, more controlled match and that's why she's moving on. If Sabalenka gets her head right, I think she can win big. As for Pliskova, she knows her game and she's cool enough to go deep in big tourneys.
(7) Berretini 6/6/6/6 - 3/0/7/4 (14) Hurkacz
Berretini got up a break in the 1st, then Hurkacz really got down on himself and mailed in the 2nd set--don't know what happened to that guy but he gave out in the 2nd. The 3rd set was even and I figured the tiebreak was gonna be a slugfest but Hurkacz grabbed control early and seemed to right himself. Thought maybe we'd get a five-setter, thought maybe Hurkacz would rise up but he went down a break and just couldn't get back in it. Berretini was the better player and the correct winner, Hurkacz has game but falls apart at the first sign of adversity.
(1) Djokovic 7/7/7 - 6/5/5 (10) Shapovalov
Right off the bat, the kid did not look up to the task and it felt like Djokovic was gonna roll him. But then Shapovalov took Djokovic's next serve with some blistering returns and all of the sudden it felt like Djok might have a match. But Shapovalov couldn't hold his advantage and then flailed through the 1st set tiebreak. But Shapovalov came back strong in the 2nd and this was a fun match. But he kept making the late fatal mistake that Djokovic would then take advantage of and that's why Djokovic won. Make no mistake: Shapovalov was the better player in the 1st and 2nd sets! But the fact that he couldn't seal the deal was why Djokovic went on to his 20th slam final. Shapovalov has a big serve (his sideways lefty serve in the ad court is unique and dangerous) and knocks some big returns, I really think this is the most talented youngster I've seen lately. If he gets his head together, this kid could be the guy. He didn't finish the match but he was better than Djokovic on this day.
Finals
(1) Barty 6/6/6 - 3/7/3 (8) Pliskova
Barty won the first 14 points of the match and Pliskova's first two service games. Okay, felt like this wasn't going to be much of a match, felt like Barty had finally solved her championship intensity problem. And even though she dropped a serve, she still took the 1st set easily. 2nd set felt like Pliskova would pull it together and we'd be headed to a tiebreak. Well....sorta. Pliskova went up a break, Barty won it back. Tied at 5-5, Pliskova is up 40-love, then proceeds to drop the next five points and suddenly Barty is serving for the match. Barty whiffs on a Championship point, gives up her serve and now we're going to tiebreak, which Pliskova takes after piling up quick lead. Okay. In the 3rd, Barty went up a break early and rode it out--but only after shrugging off another break point. Barty's game on a Tuesday is probably the best in the world, but on Saturday she's just getting started.
(1) Djokovic 6/6/6/6 - 7/4/4/3 (7) Berretini
In the 1st set, Berretini dropped a serve and it felt like the match was over. But he broke Djokovovic back and was able to take full advantage of Djokovic's mistakes in the tie break to take the 1st set and suddenly it was a competitive match. Then Berretini dropped his first two serves in the 2nd set and even though Djokovic gave him a break back, it wasn't enough and you could see how the next two sets would take shape: Djokovic would make no mistakes and pounce on any little blip in Berretini's game to surge ahead. Yup, that's what happened. It's high level tennis, so it was watchable but outside of Djokovic fumbling through the 1st set tiebreak, it was clear who the better player was and who would win. I like Berretini, he's a nice player, but I never felt like I was watching the next Federer or the next Sampras, I never felt like I was seeing the guy that's gonna take over the sport soon (now Shapovalov , on the other hand, that dude could be the guy, we'll see). So, even though Federer got smoked worse than I've seen in a long time, it feels like he and Djokovic and Nadal are still the standard bearers for at least a few more years.
All I saw was Game Four and Game Five and I gotta say, the Lightning were the vastly superior squad in both matches, not at all surprised they were able to repeat.
In Game Four, I thought the Lightning straight dominated the 1st period but the Canadiens got the goal and were up 1-0. In the 2nd period, I thought the Canadiens straight dominated but the Lightning got the goal and the match was tied. The 3rd period was great back and forth action, each team scored and when the Lightning failed to get the decisive goal during a long power play at the end of regulation, I thought they really missed on an opportunity to finish the series. They were still unable to capitalize in the OT and the Canadiens were able to poke one in to win 3-2 and stayed alive.
In Game Five, man, the Canadiens never came close to looking like they were gonna score. It was a defensive struggle and though the Lightning attack wasn't particularly scintillating either, they were able to steal the goal needed to finish the series. The Canadien power play was just awful--awful!--even with a man advantage they couldn't maintain possession much less push forward to attack.
I watched not a lot of hockey this season but if you told me that the Tampa Bay Lightning were the best team and the deserving champion, I'd have to agree. They looked so much stronger than the Canadiens in the handful of games I saw.
I thought Peru kinda sucked, a little surprised Brazil was only able to score once on them. And I thought the ref was favoring Brazil, too, so it was a strangely amazing performance for Peru to not get slaughtered. Brazil is better at every position, this was never really much of a match.
Italy 2-1 (PKs) Spain
I thought Spain was generally the better team, more dangerous around the goal and seemed more comfortable in possession. Italy's goal was a nice one, caught the keeper in no man's land and punished him, but even then I figured Spain would still score and they did. Once it goes to PK's, it's anybody's game and Italy is moving on.
Argentina 2-1 (PKs) Colombia
Fun match. I was impressed with Colombia, they did not shy away from the Argentines and really seemed to enjoy taking the physical game right at them, even though Argentina scored quick and seemed to secure the game right away. Both teams had good chances, though Argentina missed on a couple that would've really haunted them if they failed to move on. But Argentina is moving on, so no harm done.
Denmark 1-2 (OT) England
I thought England was the better squad and this was the right result. But Denmark had their chances and that game-winning goal was a rebound off a saved PK--inches away from Denmark making it to penalty kicks. Good match, Denmark hung in there but I thought England was the stronger attacking side.
Good weekend of soccer ahead--and the Gold Cup starts Saturday!
Peru v Colombia
I gotta take Colombia. This could be one of the classic trap games: Colombia left it all on the field against Argentina and doesn't care about 3rd place, while Peru feels like they underperformed against Brazil and wants to make the most of their remaining shot at a South America power. (You see that in college football all the time: a team thinks they've got a shot at a championship, suffers a bad loss late, then mails it against New Mexico State in the Car Care Bowl and everyone forgets that they actually had a good season) But I don't see it here. I think Colombia is really much better than Peru, wouldn't be surprised to see a decisive scoreline in this one.
Argentina v Brazil
(Man, who would've guessed...?) This is a classic Brazil side in that they are so wildly talented that they don't even seem all that interested in winning. This Argentina side, on the other hand, seems kinda old to me, like it's gonna take all they got to get past Brazil. This should be a good one simply because I think Argentina is gonna be fighting til the last second and Brazil is so casually awesome that they still might previal. I was gonna go with Brazil, but I think I just talked myself into Argentina. They don't do extra time in the Copa, would not be at all surprised to see this go to penalty kicks--and to be a super exciting shootout at that.
Italy v England
The English are the home favorites and they have generally looked better than everyone they've played so far. Italy is the sneaky underdog--not a place the Italians often find themselves--that outplayed the #1 Belgium but then looked lackluster against a rather overrated Spain. I think Italy plays a good game, keeps it interesting throughout, but I'll stick with England to pull it out late. This'll be another good one!
The Bucks finished off the Hawks after Trae Young was hobbled by an ankle injury (thought he moved well and made plays in Game Six but he couldn't score at his usual level and that was the end of that). The Suns finished off the Clippers after it became clear that Kawhi Leonard was not coming back (Paul George was masterful, but missed FTs in Game Two and a weird scoring drought in Game Four was the end of the Clippers).
I gotta say I was skeptical of the off-season moves these two teams made last summer. The Suns picking up Chris Paul just felt like CP's next move, not something the Suns were doing to make a big difference. The Bucks paid a massive amount to bring in Jrue Holiday, a guy that I always thought was a nice but probably overrated because of his injury history; my thought at the time was why not pay half as much for Denis Shroder to perform the same job? Well, clearly I was wrong about Paul, he is without a doubt the reason the Suns are here; and Holiday goes a long way to making the Bucks a deeper, more reliable squad. So, belatedly I gotta say: these were the two best moves of last summer, right?
In Game One, Giannis played despite fears that he'd be out (*) but he looked strong, if not terribly decisive. What jumped out at me early on was the way the Bucks were switching Brook Lopez; the danger there was not how he marks Chris Paul and/or Devin Booker, but that switching him high takes him away from Deandre Ayton and that's not gonna work. You can't have Jrue Holiday or PJ Tucker marking Ayton down low, that has to be Lopez. So I'd be surprised to see the Bucks doing that high switch going forward. I think they'll slip into a zone-type D with Tucker chasing Booker and Holiday marking Paul. We'll see.
Paul was magnificent in the 3rd quarter of Game One and that was the difference in the game. Also, the way he kept finding Ayton rotating to the basket just piled on the lead. Man, I've been so blown away by Ayton this post-season, he's been phenomenal and gives the Suns a whole new dynamic that they didn't have all year long. I thought Cam Johnson was great, too. Booker was fine, the fact that he didn't have to take over is where the Suns are at their best (when Booker goes for a quiet 25, that's when the Suns destroy people). Crowder wasn't great but defensively he put in good work and he's still a necessary part of this squad. Mikeal Bridges played hard and is a good looking rotation guy. Dario Saric got hurt which isn't a killer except that it suggests they'll be needing more minutes of Frank Kaminsky, which is not a good thing. The Suns are in a good rhythm, they know who they are and I think they're a good bet to win 3 of the next 6 games.
The Bucks started off okay but lost their way early in the 3rd quarter and it highlighted exactly what their problem is: their offense bogs down from time to time and they lose their flow. The makeup of their Big 3 is awkward: Giannis seems like "the guy" but he's such a unique attacker that its hard to build around him, Middleton is a filler-upper but not enough of a playmaker and Holiday is too spotty a shooter to be a CP-type ball control guy. Don't get wrong, there's loads of talent there and they can still win the Championship. But when they start spinning their wheels, there's no clear way to get back on track. Indeed, cranking up their defensive intensity is probably their best way to get offense and that might be their be strategy.
The Suns are probably the better team but they're definitely the more cohesive team. The Bucks need to find their defensive identity (Lopez needs to mark Ayton, Holiday needs to clamp down Paul, otherwise a zone-ish defense would give them a rebounding edge) and they need to make FTs. Can they do it? Ehh, I still think they push the Suns to seven games but you gotta like CP and Booker locking it down at home.
My pick was Suns in 7 and after watching Game One, I'll stick with that.
(*) Look, that hyper extended knee moment Giannis had in Game Four against the Hawks looked awful but there's two ways to look at: 1) on the one hand, what you saw lasted a half a second, not that big a deal; 2) on the other hand, Giannis is a 7' 300 pound man and perhaps it only takes a half a second to end his career. I was never worried, that kinda stuff happens all the time, it feels weird--and it could be dangerous--but generally it's not a thing and bad ass athletes just move on.
Denmark scored early, added another before halftime and even though Czechia got on the board soon after the break, this never felt like much of a contest to me. Denmark controlled the ball and attacked more effectively throughout.
England 4-0 Ukraine
Yeah, this game was the blowout the score would indicate. England scored early and held a 1-0 lead at the half. Soon after they added another on a corner kick (looked offside to me live but the replay showed it was a good goal), then another and the game felt over. When England added a fourth soon after, it felt like everyone was gonna score. Too bad for Ukraine, they made a valiant run but this England side is really good.
Copa America
Uruguay 0-1 (PK) Colombia
Fun game! Back and forth action, chippy at times but both teams had good chances and attacked effectively. And, uh, did I miss something? No over time? They went striaght to penalty kicks. Oh well, still fun. Was Colombia the better team? Not really, both teams were pretty even really.
Argentina 3-0 Ecuador
This (unlike the England match earlier in the day) was not a blowout til very late in the game. I thought Ecuador handled themselves well and particularly in the 1st half seemed more dangerous around the goal than the Argentines. Indeed, Argentina first goal (before halftime) was an unfortunate bit of defense: goalie came out of the box to clear the ball, didn't get there and got caught in no man's land. In the 2nd half Argentina attacked more confidently but it was only because of another defensive lapse (defender simply had a bad first touch on a pass from the keeper) that Argentina was able to cement the game. The third goal (in extra time) was another textbook Messi free kick that came after a perfect pass over the top caught di Maria in stride and the defender had to take him down. The score line doesn't show it but Ecuador played pretty well but a handful of mistakes doomed them.
Spain scored early (8th) on a 'hockey' goal: shot ricocheted off a defender behind the keeper and snuck in the goal. Obviously most every goal in a soccer match is a game changer, but for Spain to score so quick changed the whole shape of each team's attack. Spain was now allowed to play their ball control game and now Switzerland had to press forward. I thought the game was fairly even and when Switzerland tied it up (68th), it felt like we were back to the OT finish I figured we'd get all along. In OT, Spain straight dominated--dang, thought the Swiss keeper was a mad man, he made a ton of great saves. The shootout was weird, seems like neither team wanted to win. Switzerland wanted to win less, I guess, because Spain is moving on.
Belgium 1-2 Italy
Italy balled out, I thought they were the better team from beginning to end. Their attack was more sustained, their possession in the midfield was better and their full court press defense (especially in the 2nd half) made it hard for Belgium to get across midfield. Belgium just never developed any cohesion on offense. When Italy got the 2nd goal, it felt like the game was over. Belgium was able to get a PK before halftime and made it interesting--fun game, but Italy was the better team and Belgium just couldn't get it going.
Copa America
Peru 4-3 (PK) Paraguay
I thought Paraguay was generally the better team but it was a fun match, full court action up and down the field. I actually missed the shootout (oh well), but Peru is moving on and I guess that's fine.
Brazil 1-0 Chile
I didn't bother to make predictions on the Copa because, well, the prediction is basically when/if Brazil is going to lose and I didn't think they would. But Chile is perhaps the team most likely to do it (I kinda feel like that Argentine squad is a little long in the tooth to get the job done). This match started out chippy and the 1st half was mostly a slog. It settled down a little before halftime then the chippiness reemerged right after the break as Brazil scored on their first possession and then got a red card almost immediately after. Generally I felt like this was a midfield battle, never really felt like there were many great chances around the goal for either team. But Brazil converted their one clear chance, Chile was declared offside on their one converted shot, and there you have it, Brazil is moving on.
