The Pelicans fired Monty Williams yesterday. Wouldn't have been a surprise 2 weeks ago but I kinda thought Williams had survived the rough times and was planning on coming back to the Pelican bench next year. Guess not. The firing of Williams is a mixed bag: he wasn't the problem but he probably wasn't the solution either. The roster was a mess this year and the typical injury toll of the NBA hit the Pelicans harder than most this season. All in all, I thought Williams did well to make the playoffs.
For now only 6 players are signed for next year at a total of $56.2m: SG Gordon (with a player option this summer), PG/SG Evans, PG Holiday, PF Anderson, PF Davis, SF Pondexter. That leaves only $12m to bring in 9 players (worth noting that they seem likely to go over the cap). They could perhaps bring back PG Cole, SG Babbitt, C AAjinca, C Withey as low cost bench-filling options. (I'd say Asik, Fredette, Cunningham, Douglas are off to new locations) They have only one pick in the upcoming draft: #56. Not a sexy pick, indeed not someone likely to be on the Pelican roster next fall (I'd look to Europe in hopes of finding talent for the 2016-17 campaign). They have the 2010 draft rights of Latavious Williams, whose shooting percentage in Spain has been eye-popping over the last coupla years; unfortunately nothing else about his game would suggest he is NBA-ready.
So how do the Pelicans get better next year? If everyone stays healthy, they should at least be in the running for #8 in the West. Beyond that, getting rid of Gordon is the only hope of flexibility.
Who's the coach next year? (Obligatory 1st question) Does Calipari want this job? No. Look, coaching Anthony Davis is a good career move for most basketball coaches but the roster is still a mess with little flexibility in the foreseeable future, the Western Conference is harder than Chinese algebra and a single injury could be career-endingly catastrophic. Calipari has way too much upside at UK to head for a plucky 8th seed.
I suspect the coach everyone will want this summer is Alvin Gentry (currently bench coaching for the Warriors). I think Gentry would be a great fit for the Pelicans but he'd also be a great fit for the Cavs and with the anti-Blatt drums a-beatin' in Cleveland, Gentry may well wait for that situation to shake itself out. Tom Thibodeau has long been everyone's favorite for this job but Thibs may be seeking more than just a coaching gig, that GM chair might suit him too. GM Demps just sold out Coach Williams after seemingly giving him the dreaded vote of confidence, might Demps be the next sold out?
What does it all add up to? I dunno. Regardless of the coach or the GM or any off-season roster adjustments, it feels like the Pelicans will look pretty much the same next year. Another maturation year out of Davis should raise all boats and if Holiday and Anderson can stay on the court, seems like the Pelicans could be a pretty good team. Good enough to win a playoff series? Ehhhh, I can't go that far just yet. But good enough to get into the playoffs, maybe even sneak up to 6th or 7th and that'd be a pretty good season. Right now it looks like the Pelicans best chance to get better revolves around what everyone does with their off-season: what if the Blazers go busto? What if the Mavs can't lure in good free agents? What if the Lakers flounder for another year? What's gonna happen to the Spurs? Otherwise, I don't see how the Pelicans get better. What they need is to get luckier. Also its worth remembering they're almost certain to go over the cap next year. If they wheel and deal well, they might parlay that extra expenditure into something special....or maybe they'll get fleeced by the Sixers again.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
An NFL Counterfactual
As a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan (I know...I know) it has long seemed to me that the fate the Bills endured hinged entirely on one single play and it could've all been different. Here's what happened: Norwood misses the winning FG against the Giants, the Bills came back next year and promptly spotted the Redskins 14 points (then outscore them for the rest of the game), the Bills came back a 3rd time and got curb-stomped by the Cowboys, the Bills came back a 4th straight and get soundly beaten (though I wouldn't say 'curb-stomped') by the Cowboys again. The Bills then began their inevitable slide, free agents began to peel off, injuries piled up, etc., and the heyday was over. But it could've been different. It all comes down to Norwood's kick.
If Norwood makes that FG instead of pushing it wide, I think the Bills go on to win the Super Bowl the next year against the Redskins. They had already beaten the Skins in the regular season and if the Bills came into the game as the defending champs rather than last year's bumblers, I don't think they spot the Skins two quick TD's. Instead, they outplay the Skins, hold them off late and call themselves 2-time champs.
The next year the Bills return to their 3rd straight Super Bowl...and get shellacked by the Cowboys. Personally I always thought that Cowboys team, the first Jimmy Johnson champion, was the baddest team I ever saw and even if the Bills roll in as the 2-time defending champs, I think they would've gotten their hats handed to them. Losing to the Redskins in the 2nd trip was a product of choking the previous Super Bowl, but even if they hadn't choked the previous two Super Bowls, the Cowboys were awesome that year and would've pounded the Bills under any conditions. (Yeah, there's no version of history where that beatdown isn't for real)
Then the Bills flounder in the playoffs the next year and don't return for a 4th trip.
So in my version, the Bills win 2 straight Super Bowls, lose a 3rd one and then disappear a year earlier than reality. The NFL is a copy cat league, everyone emulates the champion until someone just morphs into a brand new champion for everyone to emulate anew. If the Bills won those Super Bowls instead of losing them, the domino effect throughout the league may have been huge. Perhaps the Bills players or coaches would've been plundered sooner or targeted on the field in different ways. Unfortunately those teams are only remembered for not being good enough but that was a great squad and 4 straight AFC titles was no fluke.
If Norwood makes that FG instead of pushing it wide, I think the Bills go on to win the Super Bowl the next year against the Redskins. They had already beaten the Skins in the regular season and if the Bills came into the game as the defending champs rather than last year's bumblers, I don't think they spot the Skins two quick TD's. Instead, they outplay the Skins, hold them off late and call themselves 2-time champs.
The next year the Bills return to their 3rd straight Super Bowl...and get shellacked by the Cowboys. Personally I always thought that Cowboys team, the first Jimmy Johnson champion, was the baddest team I ever saw and even if the Bills roll in as the 2-time defending champs, I think they would've gotten their hats handed to them. Losing to the Redskins in the 2nd trip was a product of choking the previous Super Bowl, but even if they hadn't choked the previous two Super Bowls, the Cowboys were awesome that year and would've pounded the Bills under any conditions. (Yeah, there's no version of history where that beatdown isn't for real)
Then the Bills flounder in the playoffs the next year and don't return for a 4th trip.
So in my version, the Bills win 2 straight Super Bowls, lose a 3rd one and then disappear a year earlier than reality. The NFL is a copy cat league, everyone emulates the champion until someone just morphs into a brand new champion for everyone to emulate anew. If the Bills won those Super Bowls instead of losing them, the domino effect throughout the league may have been huge. Perhaps the Bills players or coaches would've been plundered sooner or targeted on the field in different ways. Unfortunately those teams are only remembered for not being good enough but that was a great squad and 4 straight AFC titles was no fluke.
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
Playoffs for now
East
Bulls 2-2 Cavs
The Bulls really missed an opportunity to stick it to the Cavs in game 4. Lebron, Kyrie, Shumpert and Smith combined to go 18-58 from the floor...and the Bulls can't eke out a W? Hard to imagine the Bulls getting a better chance to beat the Cavs. The Bulls are still the same team they've been all year: good but not great, ought to be better. Love is out, Smith missed the first 2 games, Kyrie is clearly hobbled and the Bulls still find themselves knotted up. If the Bulls win game 5, they're back in it; if they don't, I think the Cavs take game 6 in Chicago. Hard to bet on the Cavs because they are so depleted but the Bulls still can't figure out how to beat them.
Wizards 2-2 Hawks
Hawks got it going again in game 4 against the Wall-less Wizards but they still look tentative to me. At their best the Hawks move the ball as well as anyone in the league and boast scoring options all over the roster, they win by outscoring people (seems obvious, don't it, but that's not everyone's strategy). But after jumping out to a commanding lead atop the Eastern Conference table, the Hawks have been slacking for a while now and while game 4 was a solid W, not sure they're all the way back to where they were. The Wizards are still figuring it out but they're a chest-thumping kinda squad who like to ride their hot streaks. They got 2 more games to get another streak going, but if Wall doesn't come back (and I don't see how he does--dude, his hand looks like an oven mitt!) hard to imagine the Wizards will have enough moxie or team speed to keep up with the Hawks. I suspect the Hawks take the next 2 games.
West
Grizzlies 2-2 Warriors
Finally! Game 4 was what the Warriors should've been doing all along (indeed, game 4 should've been the last game of this series). Before game 2, Curry collected his MVP award and then looked sluggish in back-to-back games, but last night he was juking like Barry Sanders out there and that's how he gets his shots: at his best he plays like the crazy guy on the subway that everyone struggles to ignore. The Grizzlies with or without Mike Conley should not have won two games in this series but they got that grit and grind and when Curry loses his focus (kinda like Federer in his prime: he can be beat only by his own wandering imagination) the Grizz can rise up. Its only been one game but it feels like the Warriors have their groove back. I think they'll win the next two games.
Clippers 3-1 Rockets
The Rockets just ain't got it, man. James Harden has lost a bit of his magic in the post-season and without Beverley and Motiejunas, the supporting cast just doesn't have the depth to provide useful minutes. Blake Griffin was my pre-season choice for MVP, he had a fine regular season but didn't get much attention on the MVP-level but right now he's announcing his intention to be in the MVP talk next year. Deandre, too, has played his game to perfection (crappy free throw shooting and all), been a rock down low for the Clips. I like the Rockets to win game 5 tonight at home, but the Clippers will take game 6 back in LA. Do the Rockets have a miracle comeback in them? I doubt it and the chances that the Clippers have a catastrophic collapse in them seems to be dwindling. (Dude, Chris Paul hasn't even broke a sweat yet...they don't need him)
Bulls 2-2 Cavs
The Bulls really missed an opportunity to stick it to the Cavs in game 4. Lebron, Kyrie, Shumpert and Smith combined to go 18-58 from the floor...and the Bulls can't eke out a W? Hard to imagine the Bulls getting a better chance to beat the Cavs. The Bulls are still the same team they've been all year: good but not great, ought to be better. Love is out, Smith missed the first 2 games, Kyrie is clearly hobbled and the Bulls still find themselves knotted up. If the Bulls win game 5, they're back in it; if they don't, I think the Cavs take game 6 in Chicago. Hard to bet on the Cavs because they are so depleted but the Bulls still can't figure out how to beat them.
Wizards 2-2 Hawks
Hawks got it going again in game 4 against the Wall-less Wizards but they still look tentative to me. At their best the Hawks move the ball as well as anyone in the league and boast scoring options all over the roster, they win by outscoring people (seems obvious, don't it, but that's not everyone's strategy). But after jumping out to a commanding lead atop the Eastern Conference table, the Hawks have been slacking for a while now and while game 4 was a solid W, not sure they're all the way back to where they were. The Wizards are still figuring it out but they're a chest-thumping kinda squad who like to ride their hot streaks. They got 2 more games to get another streak going, but if Wall doesn't come back (and I don't see how he does--dude, his hand looks like an oven mitt!) hard to imagine the Wizards will have enough moxie or team speed to keep up with the Hawks. I suspect the Hawks take the next 2 games.
West
Grizzlies 2-2 Warriors
Finally! Game 4 was what the Warriors should've been doing all along (indeed, game 4 should've been the last game of this series). Before game 2, Curry collected his MVP award and then looked sluggish in back-to-back games, but last night he was juking like Barry Sanders out there and that's how he gets his shots: at his best he plays like the crazy guy on the subway that everyone struggles to ignore. The Grizzlies with or without Mike Conley should not have won two games in this series but they got that grit and grind and when Curry loses his focus (kinda like Federer in his prime: he can be beat only by his own wandering imagination) the Grizz can rise up. Its only been one game but it feels like the Warriors have their groove back. I think they'll win the next two games.
Clippers 3-1 Rockets
The Rockets just ain't got it, man. James Harden has lost a bit of his magic in the post-season and without Beverley and Motiejunas, the supporting cast just doesn't have the depth to provide useful minutes. Blake Griffin was my pre-season choice for MVP, he had a fine regular season but didn't get much attention on the MVP-level but right now he's announcing his intention to be in the MVP talk next year. Deandre, too, has played his game to perfection (crappy free throw shooting and all), been a rock down low for the Clips. I like the Rockets to win game 5 tonight at home, but the Clippers will take game 6 back in LA. Do the Rockets have a miracle comeback in them? I doubt it and the chances that the Clippers have a catastrophic collapse in them seems to be dwindling. (Dude, Chris Paul hasn't even broke a sweat yet...they don't need him)
Monday, May 4, 2015
Potential Player Movement This Summer: Team Options
Not nearly as many team options as player options but there are a few notable players in there: Anthony Davis, Papanikolau, Mozgov, Caron Butler, Waiters, Speights, Drummond, Austin Rivers, John Jenkins, Beasley
When a team wants to keep a player long term, the time to do it is going into the team option year; next year the player will be a restricted free agent (RFA) and the team can only match another team's offer. The Pelicans very much want to keep Anthony Davis (very very much) for more than just the coming year. They'd like to re-sign him now and not wait til next year. Davis can make more money on that deal than he can with any other deal but Davis's best interest is to get to the best team so he can get playoff exposure and win games and be a hero, etc. This relationship isn't about money: the Pelicans are going to offer Davis the absolute maximum that he can possibly be paid, its up to Davis to take or leave it. The Pelicans' attempts to surround Davis with talent right now has been valiant but not successful. I presume Davis stays in New Orleans whether he signs this summer or next but he could maximize his own leverage if he chooses to exert himself.
Papanikolau had some nice moments in the Rockets rotation before he got hurt and faded toward the end of the season. The Rockets are an active team, guys will be coming and going from Houston this year but I think they'll keep Papanikolau (and maybe trade him).
Mozgov has played well with the Cavs, fits better than expected with Kyrie and Lebron. I reckon they look to extend him (and I reckon he takes it).
Personally I don't see any method to Stan Van's madness in Detroit, so I haven't the slightest idea if the Pistons want to keep Butler. (Probably depends on whether Butler thinks he can get more than $4.5m somewhere else and how badly Butler's agent can pester SV into cutting him loose)
OKC looks to keep Enes Kanter which I think means they have to let Waiters go. They have a lot of gunners-off-the-bench as it is, Waiters is not something the Thunder need next year anyway. (I suppose he could be trade bait but that has its limitations)
Speights has a had a nice coupla years with the Warriors but they have to cut salary next year which I would think would make Speights unattainable. (Or he could be a low cost efficiency option if they can move Lee and Iguodala)
The Pistons will not (cannot!) let Drummond get away.
Austin Rivers is an overly maligned player...but he's not great. That said, the Clippers would seem to be the best place for him right now. He had one good playoff game, is that enough for Doc to open the bank and keep Junior? (I got a dollar and a dime the answer is yes)
Jenkins doesn't look to be in the Hawks' future plans. He could be bench filler for them next year or over the side of the boat this summer.
Beasley probably can't play anywhere else besides Miami. The Heat might need to get salary to make moves this summer but if not, Beasley is a reasonable bench player for them.
There are also a coupla 2013 draft picks going into back to back team option years: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Trey Burke, Shane Larkin, Sergey Karasev, Mason Plumlee, Rudy Gobert
Its a foregone conclusion that all of these guys will return with their teams next year, just a matter of whether they get extended by next summer. I am personally not high on KCP or Burke, those guys could have a year to contemplate a future change of scenery. Larkin had a so-so year with the godawful Knicks, not sure he gets more than 2nd string minutes going into his next contract. Karasev has a torn MCL, looks to miss most of next season after only playing 33 games this year, not sure he's got a long future in the NBA. Plumlee has had nice moments, he's still cheap enough to be irresistible for the Nets, I suspect he'll be in Brooklyn through their next transformation. Gobert is a star, a legit DPOY candidate next year, pay the man!
When a team wants to keep a player long term, the time to do it is going into the team option year; next year the player will be a restricted free agent (RFA) and the team can only match another team's offer. The Pelicans very much want to keep Anthony Davis (very very much) for more than just the coming year. They'd like to re-sign him now and not wait til next year. Davis can make more money on that deal than he can with any other deal but Davis's best interest is to get to the best team so he can get playoff exposure and win games and be a hero, etc. This relationship isn't about money: the Pelicans are going to offer Davis the absolute maximum that he can possibly be paid, its up to Davis to take or leave it. The Pelicans' attempts to surround Davis with talent right now has been valiant but not successful. I presume Davis stays in New Orleans whether he signs this summer or next but he could maximize his own leverage if he chooses to exert himself.
Papanikolau had some nice moments in the Rockets rotation before he got hurt and faded toward the end of the season. The Rockets are an active team, guys will be coming and going from Houston this year but I think they'll keep Papanikolau (and maybe trade him).
Mozgov has played well with the Cavs, fits better than expected with Kyrie and Lebron. I reckon they look to extend him (and I reckon he takes it).
Personally I don't see any method to Stan Van's madness in Detroit, so I haven't the slightest idea if the Pistons want to keep Butler. (Probably depends on whether Butler thinks he can get more than $4.5m somewhere else and how badly Butler's agent can pester SV into cutting him loose)
OKC looks to keep Enes Kanter which I think means they have to let Waiters go. They have a lot of gunners-off-the-bench as it is, Waiters is not something the Thunder need next year anyway. (I suppose he could be trade bait but that has its limitations)
Speights has a had a nice coupla years with the Warriors but they have to cut salary next year which I would think would make Speights unattainable. (Or he could be a low cost efficiency option if they can move Lee and Iguodala)
The Pistons will not (cannot!) let Drummond get away.
Austin Rivers is an overly maligned player...but he's not great. That said, the Clippers would seem to be the best place for him right now. He had one good playoff game, is that enough for Doc to open the bank and keep Junior? (I got a dollar and a dime the answer is yes)
Jenkins doesn't look to be in the Hawks' future plans. He could be bench filler for them next year or over the side of the boat this summer.
Beasley probably can't play anywhere else besides Miami. The Heat might need to get salary to make moves this summer but if not, Beasley is a reasonable bench player for them.
There are also a coupla 2013 draft picks going into back to back team option years: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Trey Burke, Shane Larkin, Sergey Karasev, Mason Plumlee, Rudy Gobert
Its a foregone conclusion that all of these guys will return with their teams next year, just a matter of whether they get extended by next summer. I am personally not high on KCP or Burke, those guys could have a year to contemplate a future change of scenery. Larkin had a so-so year with the godawful Knicks, not sure he gets more than 2nd string minutes going into his next contract. Karasev has a torn MCL, looks to miss most of next season after only playing 33 games this year, not sure he's got a long future in the NBA. Plumlee has had nice moments, he's still cheap enough to be irresistible for the Nets, I suspect he'll be in Brooklyn through their next transformation. Gobert is a star, a legit DPOY candidate next year, pay the man!
Potential Player Movement This Summer: Player Options
Aaron Aflalo has already exercised his player option ($7.9m) and will likely leave Portland. Who will follow him to the open market? I don't know what these guys will do but here's my general perception as a watcher.
This summer's player options: Lebron ($21.5m), Brook Lopez ($16.7), K Love ($16.7), D Wade ($16.1), Eric Gordon ($15.5), Hibbert ($15.5), Big Al Jefferson ($13.8), David West ($12), Deng ($10.1), Jeff Green ($9.4), Monta Ellis ($8.7), Dragic ($7.5), JR Smith ($6.3), Gerald Henderson ($6), Pierce ($5.5), Budinger ($5), Corey Brewer ($4.9), Felton ($3.9), Hinrich ($2.8), Jameer Nelson ($2.8), Mike Miller ($2.8), Steve Blake ($2.1), Danny Granger ($2.1), Aaron Gray ($1.3), Alan Anderson ($1.3), Brandon Rush ($1.2), Cartier Martin ($1.2), Garret Temple ($1.1), Aminu ($1.1), Ed Davis ($1m).
A few will opt out to get raises from their own teams rather than hit the market: Lebron, Love, Wade, Ellis, Dragic, Brewer, Blake, Aminu
These guys have the luxury of re-configuring their current deals. Maybe they actually wanna skip town (or need to look that way to gain leverage), but probably they just want more money to do the same thing in the same place next year. All these guys have earned it and I think they will get raises from their current teams rather than move on.
A few will opt out to get out: Lopez, (maybe Love goes here), Green, (maybe Monta goes here), Pierce, (maybe Brewer), Jameer, (maybe Blake), Granger, (maybe Aminu), (maybe Davis)
These guys think they can get paid more somewhere else or have some other reason to prefer a new team. Lopez is a good solid center but there will be a lot of quality centers out there, Lopez could be somebody's overpriced prize or maybe he falters and he wishes he just stayed in Brooklyn. Right now Love is saying all the proper patriotic things about staying with the Cavs, perhaps its genuine, perhaps its all a smokescreen and he jets off to sunnier climes as soon as the free agent period begins; I suspect he wanted to be in Cleveland all along, that trio will dominate the East for 5-6 years at least, why would he leave? But maybe he always wanted to play for the Lakers or Knicks or whoever. Jeff Green hasn't turned out to be a fit in Memphis, but he's good enough to get a decent deal somewhere (hello, Denver!). If the Wizards sneak out of the East then maybe Pierce sticks around but I doubt it; he'll have many options this summer (returning to the Celtics just in time for the team to get good again seems like the natural fit, don't it?) and the Wizards should be one of those options. Brewer is a great playmaker off the bench, I think the Rockets should hold to him but the Rockets like to grab even when they can't grasp, so I can see Brewer playing just about anywhere next year. Jameer spent double digit years in Orlando...and has been to 3 cities in the last year. And I reckon he'll head back East, he can do better than Denver and I think he will. Blake had a solid season for the Blazers, that team looks like it may disintegrate quickly, Blake could play it for a raise or he may be a-searchin' for greener pastures. Granger might retire, though he was a badass not that long ago, he's kind of invisible now, I'd like to see him go to Utah, he may well be the right veteran presence. Aminu gave as good a defensive effort on Harden as I've seen anyone give all year, that alone should earn him well more than his scheduled $1.1m (hell, the Rockets ought to give him $5m at least). I don't really know Ed Davis but my perception is that he's an under appreciated player, perhaps he can get more than $1m.
A few won't opt out because they don't think they'll get more money somewhere else: (maybe Lopez goes here), Gordon, Big Al, JR Smith, Felton, Rush
I still submit Eric Gordon's (1 yr/$15.3m) contract as the worst 1 year deal in the league, though there may be a team out there that wants to pay him more but I think he's lucky to be paid so much to play alongside Anthony Davis. Big Al has had his ups and his downs, there will be a lot of centers out there, his flaws will be on display, since I suspect Charlotte is where he wants to be anyway, I think he plays out his deal. JR is in a pretty good situation playing Byron Scott to Lebron (Magic), Kyrie (other Magic), and Love (Worthy), he should stick around. I'm not sure Felton has another NBA contract in him, I reckon he plays this year with the Mavs, then roams the league for as long as he can. I'm not sure who Rush is or what he does or whether he should get another contract (some guys are great practice guys, locker room guys, they fill out your roster just to be good influences, nice guys, gophers, cheerleaders, etc) but I reckon he plays out his current deal.
A few won't opt out because they actually like their current situation: Hibbert, West, Deng, Hinrich, Miller, Martin
Hibbert could hit the market and probably get paid (though still an offensive liability, he's also still a defensive badass), West too (great veteran presence, solid player, affordable deal), but I think they fit the Pacers and vice versa, with George coming back and a lottery pick coming in, why leave now? The Heat look to be pretty good, Deng could be a 6th Man type candidate coming off that bench. Hinrich is as much a part of the Bulls as Noah or D Rose. Who else is gonna pay Mike Miller to be a cheerleader? My recollection is that Stan Van targeted Cartier Martin as someone he really wanted, so I reckon he stays right there.
And some will .... I dunno: Henderson, Budinger, Anderson, Gray, Temple
Gerald Henderson is one of those irrational confidence guys that occasionally looks good and just as often looks terrible, as up and down as any current player I can think of. (Can he get more money outside of Charlotte? I dunno. Should he get more money? I dunno. Does he want to leave Charlotte? I dunno) I dunno about Budinger, never thought much of his game honestly, think $5m is probably about what he ought to get, but maybe there's someone out there that thinks he can be the poor man's Chandler Parsons. Alan Anderson is not a bad player and he can be a good bench player on a really good team (Heat, Clippers) or he can be an overworked, underpaid horse for a godawful Nets squad...what does he prefer? I dunno. Will Aaron Gray get another NBA contract? I dunno. Garret Temple is an okay player, a pretty good back up PG, he could maybe get more money somewhere else but I'm hard pressed to think of that other place.
This summer's player options: Lebron ($21.5m), Brook Lopez ($16.7), K Love ($16.7), D Wade ($16.1), Eric Gordon ($15.5), Hibbert ($15.5), Big Al Jefferson ($13.8), David West ($12), Deng ($10.1), Jeff Green ($9.4), Monta Ellis ($8.7), Dragic ($7.5), JR Smith ($6.3), Gerald Henderson ($6), Pierce ($5.5), Budinger ($5), Corey Brewer ($4.9), Felton ($3.9), Hinrich ($2.8), Jameer Nelson ($2.8), Mike Miller ($2.8), Steve Blake ($2.1), Danny Granger ($2.1), Aaron Gray ($1.3), Alan Anderson ($1.3), Brandon Rush ($1.2), Cartier Martin ($1.2), Garret Temple ($1.1), Aminu ($1.1), Ed Davis ($1m).
A few will opt out to get raises from their own teams rather than hit the market: Lebron, Love, Wade, Ellis, Dragic, Brewer, Blake, Aminu
These guys have the luxury of re-configuring their current deals. Maybe they actually wanna skip town (or need to look that way to gain leverage), but probably they just want more money to do the same thing in the same place next year. All these guys have earned it and I think they will get raises from their current teams rather than move on.
A few will opt out to get out: Lopez, (maybe Love goes here), Green, (maybe Monta goes here), Pierce, (maybe Brewer), Jameer, (maybe Blake), Granger, (maybe Aminu), (maybe Davis)
These guys think they can get paid more somewhere else or have some other reason to prefer a new team. Lopez is a good solid center but there will be a lot of quality centers out there, Lopez could be somebody's overpriced prize or maybe he falters and he wishes he just stayed in Brooklyn. Right now Love is saying all the proper patriotic things about staying with the Cavs, perhaps its genuine, perhaps its all a smokescreen and he jets off to sunnier climes as soon as the free agent period begins; I suspect he wanted to be in Cleveland all along, that trio will dominate the East for 5-6 years at least, why would he leave? But maybe he always wanted to play for the Lakers or Knicks or whoever. Jeff Green hasn't turned out to be a fit in Memphis, but he's good enough to get a decent deal somewhere (hello, Denver!). If the Wizards sneak out of the East then maybe Pierce sticks around but I doubt it; he'll have many options this summer (returning to the Celtics just in time for the team to get good again seems like the natural fit, don't it?) and the Wizards should be one of those options. Brewer is a great playmaker off the bench, I think the Rockets should hold to him but the Rockets like to grab even when they can't grasp, so I can see Brewer playing just about anywhere next year. Jameer spent double digit years in Orlando...and has been to 3 cities in the last year. And I reckon he'll head back East, he can do better than Denver and I think he will. Blake had a solid season for the Blazers, that team looks like it may disintegrate quickly, Blake could play it for a raise or he may be a-searchin' for greener pastures. Granger might retire, though he was a badass not that long ago, he's kind of invisible now, I'd like to see him go to Utah, he may well be the right veteran presence. Aminu gave as good a defensive effort on Harden as I've seen anyone give all year, that alone should earn him well more than his scheduled $1.1m (hell, the Rockets ought to give him $5m at least). I don't really know Ed Davis but my perception is that he's an under appreciated player, perhaps he can get more than $1m.
A few won't opt out because they don't think they'll get more money somewhere else: (maybe Lopez goes here), Gordon, Big Al, JR Smith, Felton, Rush
I still submit Eric Gordon's (1 yr/$15.3m) contract as the worst 1 year deal in the league, though there may be a team out there that wants to pay him more but I think he's lucky to be paid so much to play alongside Anthony Davis. Big Al has had his ups and his downs, there will be a lot of centers out there, his flaws will be on display, since I suspect Charlotte is where he wants to be anyway, I think he plays out his deal. JR is in a pretty good situation playing Byron Scott to Lebron (Magic), Kyrie (other Magic), and Love (Worthy), he should stick around. I'm not sure Felton has another NBA contract in him, I reckon he plays this year with the Mavs, then roams the league for as long as he can. I'm not sure who Rush is or what he does or whether he should get another contract (some guys are great practice guys, locker room guys, they fill out your roster just to be good influences, nice guys, gophers, cheerleaders, etc) but I reckon he plays out his current deal.
A few won't opt out because they actually like their current situation: Hibbert, West, Deng, Hinrich, Miller, Martin
Hibbert could hit the market and probably get paid (though still an offensive liability, he's also still a defensive badass), West too (great veteran presence, solid player, affordable deal), but I think they fit the Pacers and vice versa, with George coming back and a lottery pick coming in, why leave now? The Heat look to be pretty good, Deng could be a 6th Man type candidate coming off that bench. Hinrich is as much a part of the Bulls as Noah or D Rose. Who else is gonna pay Mike Miller to be a cheerleader? My recollection is that Stan Van targeted Cartier Martin as someone he really wanted, so I reckon he stays right there.
And some will .... I dunno: Henderson, Budinger, Anderson, Gray, Temple
Gerald Henderson is one of those irrational confidence guys that occasionally looks good and just as often looks terrible, as up and down as any current player I can think of. (Can he get more money outside of Charlotte? I dunno. Should he get more money? I dunno. Does he want to leave Charlotte? I dunno) I dunno about Budinger, never thought much of his game honestly, think $5m is probably about what he ought to get, but maybe there's someone out there that thinks he can be the poor man's Chandler Parsons. Alan Anderson is not a bad player and he can be a good bench player on a really good team (Heat, Clippers) or he can be an overworked, underpaid horse for a godawful Nets squad...what does he prefer? I dunno. Will Aaron Gray get another NBA contract? I dunno. Garret Temple is an okay player, a pretty good back up PG, he could maybe get more money somewhere else but I'm hard pressed to think of that other place.
Sunday, May 3, 2015
Playoff Predictions (East)
Bulls-Cavs
This was my pre-season pick and here we are. I thought the roles would be reversed, the Bulls with home court advantage, but I don't think it much matters. Game 6 was a debacle for the Bucks but I think it may have been the wakeup call the Bulls have been waiting for. I thought at the beginning of the year the Bulls would get out of the East (and lose to the Spurs....nope) but all season long I kept waiting for the Bulls to be better. They were a fine team, but I never saw unstoppable. The Hawks were the juggernaut team this year but it feels like it should've been the Bulls: Pau had a great 1st year, Butler had a great maturation season, D Rose was in and out but generally a positive contributor, Noah wasn't great but it never felt like he had to be this year (could be that not be needed is his Kryptonite), Mirotic was a pleasant surprise all over the court, Dunleavy and Brooks slid back to their proper positions and contributed just fine; that alone is way more than they had last year so why aren't they any better than last year? The Hawks made no moves and took off this year, the Bulls made many good moves and are in the same place they were last year. I thought they'd be a better regular season team and a dangerous force come playoff time. The Bucks gave a belated challenge and made the Bulls look sloppy but game 6 was the united front performance the Bulls needed. (Note that Mirotic played sparingly, see if Dunleavy gets more meaningful minutes while Mirotic gets spot duty against the Cavs)
The Cavs tried hard to make the Celtics look good but in the end they blew past them just like they always should have. They lost Love for the rest of the playoffs (my first thought was the injury story was smokescreen allowing Love to return at his own pace, but surgery's no joke, guess he's out) and they're without JR Smith for the first two games at home; losing Love is tough: he could've spread the floor and kept Noah in check, now the Cavs need Mozgov and Thompson to man up and play some damn ball. And losing Smith too is a blow especially since he's missing home games where the role players generally contribute more in the playoffs. Kyrie can outscore most anyone he plays against and Lebron is still the best player in basketball, they can beat the Bulls. But this was already an imperfect team now further limited. Been 4 years since Lebron and the Spurs have both lost in the playoffs (and then to the team that beat them both), but I think the Bulls get it going. I'll say Pau has 2 big games, Butler has 1 big game and D Rose has 1 big game and the Bulls move on. Bulls in 6 (1,2,4,6).
Wizards-Hawks
The Wizards are peaking. They did this last year too: played their best basketball after the all-star break, smoked the Bulls, ran into #1 Pacers (who had been struggling mightily). Seemed like everything was right for the Wizards....but they lost. Scenario kinda the same this year. no? Wall is ready to be a star, Beal is dangerous, Pierce is the old timey Pierce, Gortat is in a good mood and playing good ball, Otto Porter stepped off the milk carton and into our hearts, even Drew Gooden is raining 3's. Oh, times are good in DC!
The Hawks haven't played their best ball in quite some time. That January freight train has long since left the station. The Nets pushed the #1 seed further than anyone else got pushed in the East but the Nets only suck because they kinda want to not because they actually suck, so I'm not gonna clown the Hawks for not sweeping them. As with the Bulls, I was impressed with their game 6: confident, in control, the Nets had a stretch where they just couldn't help but turn the ball over, the game was over quick. The January Hawks are not walking through that door but I think the April Hawks are about to get their game on and show the Wiz what's what. Teague and Korver can outscore Wall and Beal, the Wizards' difference maker is Pierce and I just can't see Pierce pulling out 4 games. It'll be tough but I think the Hawks have too much offense for the Wizards. Hawks in 6 (1,4,5,6).
Conference Finals: Bulls-Hawks
That should be a pretty good match. My gut right now is the Bulls will enter drained from the Cavs, the Hawks will enter rejuvenated from the Wizards. Hawks in 7.
This was my pre-season pick and here we are. I thought the roles would be reversed, the Bulls with home court advantage, but I don't think it much matters. Game 6 was a debacle for the Bucks but I think it may have been the wakeup call the Bulls have been waiting for. I thought at the beginning of the year the Bulls would get out of the East (and lose to the Spurs....nope) but all season long I kept waiting for the Bulls to be better. They were a fine team, but I never saw unstoppable. The Hawks were the juggernaut team this year but it feels like it should've been the Bulls: Pau had a great 1st year, Butler had a great maturation season, D Rose was in and out but generally a positive contributor, Noah wasn't great but it never felt like he had to be this year (could be that not be needed is his Kryptonite), Mirotic was a pleasant surprise all over the court, Dunleavy and Brooks slid back to their proper positions and contributed just fine; that alone is way more than they had last year so why aren't they any better than last year? The Hawks made no moves and took off this year, the Bulls made many good moves and are in the same place they were last year. I thought they'd be a better regular season team and a dangerous force come playoff time. The Bucks gave a belated challenge and made the Bulls look sloppy but game 6 was the united front performance the Bulls needed. (Note that Mirotic played sparingly, see if Dunleavy gets more meaningful minutes while Mirotic gets spot duty against the Cavs)
The Cavs tried hard to make the Celtics look good but in the end they blew past them just like they always should have. They lost Love for the rest of the playoffs (my first thought was the injury story was smokescreen allowing Love to return at his own pace, but surgery's no joke, guess he's out) and they're without JR Smith for the first two games at home; losing Love is tough: he could've spread the floor and kept Noah in check, now the Cavs need Mozgov and Thompson to man up and play some damn ball. And losing Smith too is a blow especially since he's missing home games where the role players generally contribute more in the playoffs. Kyrie can outscore most anyone he plays against and Lebron is still the best player in basketball, they can beat the Bulls. But this was already an imperfect team now further limited. Been 4 years since Lebron and the Spurs have both lost in the playoffs (and then to the team that beat them both), but I think the Bulls get it going. I'll say Pau has 2 big games, Butler has 1 big game and D Rose has 1 big game and the Bulls move on. Bulls in 6 (1,2,4,6).
Wizards-Hawks
The Wizards are peaking. They did this last year too: played their best basketball after the all-star break, smoked the Bulls, ran into #1 Pacers (who had been struggling mightily). Seemed like everything was right for the Wizards....but they lost. Scenario kinda the same this year. no? Wall is ready to be a star, Beal is dangerous, Pierce is the old timey Pierce, Gortat is in a good mood and playing good ball, Otto Porter stepped off the milk carton and into our hearts, even Drew Gooden is raining 3's. Oh, times are good in DC!
The Hawks haven't played their best ball in quite some time. That January freight train has long since left the station. The Nets pushed the #1 seed further than anyone else got pushed in the East but the Nets only suck because they kinda want to not because they actually suck, so I'm not gonna clown the Hawks for not sweeping them. As with the Bulls, I was impressed with their game 6: confident, in control, the Nets had a stretch where they just couldn't help but turn the ball over, the game was over quick. The January Hawks are not walking through that door but I think the April Hawks are about to get their game on and show the Wiz what's what. Teague and Korver can outscore Wall and Beal, the Wizards' difference maker is Pierce and I just can't see Pierce pulling out 4 games. It'll be tough but I think the Hawks have too much offense for the Wizards. Hawks in 6 (1,4,5,6).
Conference Finals: Bulls-Hawks
That should be a pretty good match. My gut right now is the Bulls will enter drained from the Cavs, the Hawks will enter rejuvenated from the Wizards. Hawks in 7.
Playoff Predictions (West)
Grizzlies-Warriors
The Grizzlies laid a whooping on the Blazers but the Blazers were depleted and by the end the Grizzlies were too. Look, I like the Grizzlies, love their fire, their devotion to each other, their dedication to the dirty work...but man if Conley doesn't play, I just don't see how they score enough to even come close to hanging with the Warriors. Like, not even close, I don't see it at all. And if Conley does play...I like Conley, underrated scorer and defender but...with a broken face? Come on, man, Curry is gonna bury him deep. (If the Grizzlies get swept, is Gasol suddenly available like Aldridge? Do we whisper Gasol in every town in this league?)
The Warriors just rolled the Pelicans and they're about to roll the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have pride (Bogut better watch himself, maybe Barnes too) but they just don't have enough offense to hang with the Warriors. The Warriors shouldn't really even have to try hard more than a few minutes at a time in this series, I can see Speights and Lee getting decent minutes in this series. Warriors in 4.
Clippers-Rockets
The Clippers did it, they beat the Spurs. (Unbelievable game 7, tied with ten seconds to go, you knew it was gonna be tight) Watching that series I thought all along that the winner of that series would beat the Rockets (even on the road). And I'll stick with that. We all saw it: the Clipper 6-man rotation is awesome, nothing past 6 is awesome. If that 6 can stay on the floor, they can beat the Rockets. That team took a game in San Antonio, they can take one in Houston. I don't think Griffin will use and abuse Terrence Jones the way he dominated Splitter/Duncan but he'll be better than Jones, Deandre will be better than Dwight, CP3 will get one more win than Harden.
The Rockets are a team dominated by James Harden. At his best he's unstoppable, at his worst he's still better than your best guy. How deep can one scorer, dominant as Harden is, go in the playoffs? The Rocket supporting cast is missing Beverley, Motiejunas and McDaniels, three energy guys that can make plays on defense and keep the possession on offense; none of them are all-stars but this late in the season you'd rather that bench was fuller. Corey Brewer might have a coupla good games in him but against the Mavs the Rockets got time out of Prigioni and Capela, can those guys see the floor against the Clippers? In game 7, even in Houston, I'll take Paul over Harden. Clippers in 7 (2,3,6,7).
Conference Finals: Clippers-Warriors
I say the Warriors roll into the Final on an 8-game (playoff) winning streak. Meanwhile the 6 guys that call themselves the Clippers will have gone seven with the Spurs, then seven with the Rockets, and then roll into the Bay Area expecting to win. After watching UK fall after a 38-game winning streak, I hesitate but I gotta take the Warriors to sweep again. Warriors in (fo, fo) fo.
Finals: Hawks-Warriors
I don't think the Warriors would sweep the Hawks but I can't see the Hawks winning four games out of seven. The Hawks will give the Warriors pause, the Warriors will have some struggles, but they'll prevail because they're the better squad. Warriors in 7.
That's it for now. Let's see how I long I agree with myself...
The Grizzlies laid a whooping on the Blazers but the Blazers were depleted and by the end the Grizzlies were too. Look, I like the Grizzlies, love their fire, their devotion to each other, their dedication to the dirty work...but man if Conley doesn't play, I just don't see how they score enough to even come close to hanging with the Warriors. Like, not even close, I don't see it at all. And if Conley does play...I like Conley, underrated scorer and defender but...with a broken face? Come on, man, Curry is gonna bury him deep. (If the Grizzlies get swept, is Gasol suddenly available like Aldridge? Do we whisper Gasol in every town in this league?)
The Warriors just rolled the Pelicans and they're about to roll the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have pride (Bogut better watch himself, maybe Barnes too) but they just don't have enough offense to hang with the Warriors. The Warriors shouldn't really even have to try hard more than a few minutes at a time in this series, I can see Speights and Lee getting decent minutes in this series. Warriors in 4.
Clippers-Rockets
The Clippers did it, they beat the Spurs. (Unbelievable game 7, tied with ten seconds to go, you knew it was gonna be tight) Watching that series I thought all along that the winner of that series would beat the Rockets (even on the road). And I'll stick with that. We all saw it: the Clipper 6-man rotation is awesome, nothing past 6 is awesome. If that 6 can stay on the floor, they can beat the Rockets. That team took a game in San Antonio, they can take one in Houston. I don't think Griffin will use and abuse Terrence Jones the way he dominated Splitter/Duncan but he'll be better than Jones, Deandre will be better than Dwight, CP3 will get one more win than Harden.
The Rockets are a team dominated by James Harden. At his best he's unstoppable, at his worst he's still better than your best guy. How deep can one scorer, dominant as Harden is, go in the playoffs? The Rocket supporting cast is missing Beverley, Motiejunas and McDaniels, three energy guys that can make plays on defense and keep the possession on offense; none of them are all-stars but this late in the season you'd rather that bench was fuller. Corey Brewer might have a coupla good games in him but against the Mavs the Rockets got time out of Prigioni and Capela, can those guys see the floor against the Clippers? In game 7, even in Houston, I'll take Paul over Harden. Clippers in 7 (2,3,6,7).
Conference Finals: Clippers-Warriors
I say the Warriors roll into the Final on an 8-game (playoff) winning streak. Meanwhile the 6 guys that call themselves the Clippers will have gone seven with the Spurs, then seven with the Rockets, and then roll into the Bay Area expecting to win. After watching UK fall after a 38-game winning streak, I hesitate but I gotta take the Warriors to sweep again. Warriors in (fo, fo) fo.
Finals: Hawks-Warriors
I don't think the Warriors would sweep the Hawks but I can't see the Hawks winning four games out of seven. The Hawks will give the Warriors pause, the Warriors will have some struggles, but they'll prevail because they're the better squad. Warriors in 7.
That's it for now. Let's see how I long I agree with myself...
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