OKC signs Enes Kanter (something like 4 yrs/$52m, backloaded so the 1st year is around $10m). They trade Kanter and Waiters (team option 1yr/$5m) to the Suns for the Morris twins ($8m + $5m next year) and Danny Granger (1 yr/$2.1m).
The Suns then flip Waiters, their 2015 1st rounder and 2016 1st rounder (top 10 protected) to the Hornets to move up in the draft and get Willie Cauley-Stein.
The Suns swap out the Morris twins for Kanter (better offensive player) and Cauley-Stein (better defensive player). Bringing in Kanter and re-signing Knight would leave a little bit of cap room (could bring back Green or Wright or move on from both) and a core (Bledsoe, Knight, Tucker, Kanter, Len with Warren, Goodwin, Cauley-Stein off the bench) that would be set for a few years. Not sure they'd win in the West but they'd be fun to watch.
OKC brings in stability in the rotation for the next coupla years in two swing forwards that should fit well with Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Adams. They don't have to worry about overpaying Kanter and while Kanter is a superior offensive player, the Morris twins are better defenders and reasonable offensive replacements. As for Danny Granger, Durant likes his veterans, maybe there's a place for him off the bench (or they could buy him out). And they get to shed Dion Waiters, which is just a beautiful thing.
The Hornets move down in the draft but they pick up a scoring wing and a mid-teen pick in next year's draft. Not great but not bad. They could use Willie Cauley too but the Hornets need a new identity more than just another rookie. (Also, not convinced that the Hornets know how to evaluate draft picks, their chances at #14 may be just as good as their chances at #8) And, man, Waiters and Lance Stephenson on the same team? Must-watch train wreck reality show, right there.
Saturday, April 18, 2015
Basketball Nerd Blues
(Man, I didn't even see enough hockey this year to even pretend like I could do a playoff preview...damn shame)
Friday, April 17, 2015
Pointless Trade Idea
Knicks get Demarcus Cousins
Lakers get David Lee
Kings get Jordan Hill, Knicks 2015 1st round pick, Knicks 2015 2nd round pick
Warriors get 2015 2nd round pick from Lakers, 2016 2nd round pick from Knicks.
Would the Knicks give up their 1st round pick (potentially #1) and their 2nd round pick (#32) for Demarcus Cousins? Fuck yeah, they would! Everybody loves high 1st round picks but as much as I like the college talent this year, none of these guys are can't miss guys. Cousins is already the most underappreciated player in the league and New York is exactly where he wants to be. Would he thrive in the triangle offense? I doubt it. Would he thrive next to Melo? Probably not. Doesn't matter, Cousins can be the best player in the league and he's worth way more than that (but the Knicks don't have any more than that).
Would the Lakers give up 1yr/$9m Jordan Hill and a 2nd round pick for 1yr/$15.4m David Lee? Sure, why not? Lee is a better player, either way its only a one year commitment, and even if the Lakers can get Kevin Love, Lee is a better bench player than Hill. They'd be taking more salary but the Lakers don't care about money. I think Lee whether starting or not is a better asset for next year than Jordan Hill and a 2nd round pick doesn't seem like much to pay.
Would the Kings prefer Jordan Hill and the #1 pick to Cousins? No but it seems like everything they've ever done for Cousins has failed. The Kings are a natural born bunch of bunglers and having Cousins (the BEST contract in the league right now) is a waste of a good talent. Would Hill and Okafor be better than Cousins? Almost certainly not but it gives the Kings something to hold on to.
Would the Warriors be willing to give David Lee for a coupla 2nd round picks? Yes. They've got to re-sign Draymond Green and that means either Lee or Iguodala HAS to go. They're not looking to get anything back, indeed, those 2nd round picks can be protected to amazing limits, the Warriors don't need anything back.
(Normally the contracts have to match to make a trade in the NBA but since draft picks are involved, because the Warriors want to subtract without adding back and because the Knicks have nothing beyond their #1 pick to offer, this deal could still work)
The Knicks would probably do that deal (Phil Jax wants veterans not rookies) but that #1 pick is pretty much their only movable asset, they need more than just Cousins and a #1 pick can maybe bring back two or three bodies rather than just one. They might need volume to fill out their roster.
The Warriors would be more than happy to send Cousins to the East, pad the Laker salary and watch the Kings flounder with another heralded rookie. They don't even need the picks back to make this work for them!
The Lakers....eh, this doesn't really solve any of their problems but its not a terrible move. And getting Cousins shipped out of their division is probably worth it.
Looking back over this the Kings don't get nearly enough for Cousins but if Cousins really wants out, the team will probably have to eat some value to make it work. Honestly for the next 2 years I'd rather Cousins on his current deal than just about anyone else in the league (including Okafor, Towns, or whoever) so the Kings are pretty much guaranteed to come up short in any deal for Cousins. But if they can shake out the #1 pick and a good 2nd round pick and a nice young veteran, that's not a bad haul (though they can probably do better).
Lakers get David Lee
Kings get Jordan Hill, Knicks 2015 1st round pick, Knicks 2015 2nd round pick
Warriors get 2015 2nd round pick from Lakers, 2016 2nd round pick from Knicks.
Would the Knicks give up their 1st round pick (potentially #1) and their 2nd round pick (#32) for Demarcus Cousins? Fuck yeah, they would! Everybody loves high 1st round picks but as much as I like the college talent this year, none of these guys are can't miss guys. Cousins is already the most underappreciated player in the league and New York is exactly where he wants to be. Would he thrive in the triangle offense? I doubt it. Would he thrive next to Melo? Probably not. Doesn't matter, Cousins can be the best player in the league and he's worth way more than that (but the Knicks don't have any more than that).
Would the Lakers give up 1yr/$9m Jordan Hill and a 2nd round pick for 1yr/$15.4m David Lee? Sure, why not? Lee is a better player, either way its only a one year commitment, and even if the Lakers can get Kevin Love, Lee is a better bench player than Hill. They'd be taking more salary but the Lakers don't care about money. I think Lee whether starting or not is a better asset for next year than Jordan Hill and a 2nd round pick doesn't seem like much to pay.
Would the Kings prefer Jordan Hill and the #1 pick to Cousins? No but it seems like everything they've ever done for Cousins has failed. The Kings are a natural born bunch of bunglers and having Cousins (the BEST contract in the league right now) is a waste of a good talent. Would Hill and Okafor be better than Cousins? Almost certainly not but it gives the Kings something to hold on to.
Would the Warriors be willing to give David Lee for a coupla 2nd round picks? Yes. They've got to re-sign Draymond Green and that means either Lee or Iguodala HAS to go. They're not looking to get anything back, indeed, those 2nd round picks can be protected to amazing limits, the Warriors don't need anything back.
(Normally the contracts have to match to make a trade in the NBA but since draft picks are involved, because the Warriors want to subtract without adding back and because the Knicks have nothing beyond their #1 pick to offer, this deal could still work)
The Knicks would probably do that deal (Phil Jax wants veterans not rookies) but that #1 pick is pretty much their only movable asset, they need more than just Cousins and a #1 pick can maybe bring back two or three bodies rather than just one. They might need volume to fill out their roster.
The Warriors would be more than happy to send Cousins to the East, pad the Laker salary and watch the Kings flounder with another heralded rookie. They don't even need the picks back to make this work for them!
The Lakers....eh, this doesn't really solve any of their problems but its not a terrible move. And getting Cousins shipped out of their division is probably worth it.
Looking back over this the Kings don't get nearly enough for Cousins but if Cousins really wants out, the team will probably have to eat some value to make it work. Honestly for the next 2 years I'd rather Cousins on his current deal than just about anyone else in the league (including Okafor, Towns, or whoever) so the Kings are pretty much guaranteed to come up short in any deal for Cousins. But if they can shake out the #1 pick and a good 2nd round pick and a nice young veteran, that's not a bad haul (though they can probably do better).
Playoff Predictions (West, 1st round)
WEST
Warriors over Pelicans in 4. Normally I think its good for scrambling young squads to make the playoffs but somehow I think the Pelicans would've been better off just missing out. I think they're about to get so roasted by the Warriors that it probably isn't worth the effort. And (reportedly) making the playoffs saved the jobs of the GM and coach, both of whom should probably be fired. And the roster still sucks going forward. They're built on Anthony Davis and they've mortgaged the future to try and build around him...and they haven't done that. They're a mediocre team and I don't think they'll be much better next year...after that its all up to Davis. (What if New Orleans loses Anthony Davis and Drew Brees in the same year? Lawd have mercy) The Warriors are in one of the best grooves I've ever seen in the NBA and the Pelicans have nothing to stop them. For the Pelicans to take even a single game I think it would require Davis having the game of his life AND someone else having the game of his life too! Nah, I don't think that happens, the Warriors will pummel these guys. (I'll take the Warriors to win the West)
Rockets over Mavs in 7. The Mavs season got derailed by the Rondo trade. They might've ended up with Knight and Kanter instead of Rondo and Amare, Goran Dragic was in play, Isiah Thomas, Josh Smith, there were other options out there but they panic-traded and got stuck with the booby prize. The offense is still potent enough and the defense crafty enough to give the Rockets a run. The Rockets go as far as James Harden carries them. So are the Rockets too one-dimensional to win or are they so singularly effective as to be unbeatable? Not sure. I think the Mavs can push on the Rockets but I think Harden pulls it out in game 7.
Spurs over Clippers in 7. I think Pop wanted to play the Clippers. I think Pop thinks, 'Those guys can beat us, might as well play them first'. If the Spurs are gonna lose, if Duncan and Ginobli ride off into the sunset (I think they come back one more year), might as well get the vacation started early. Or the Spurs respect the opponent, get in line, and let Pop guide them back to the Finals. Best 1st round series ever? Both teams are playing the best ball right now, both teams are ready for the playoffs, each team can beat the other. This is all good. Can't wait, gonna watch every game, I like the Spurs to not go out in the 1st round. Game 7 is gonna be an all-time classic.
Grizzlies over Blazers in 6. The Grizzlies usually fight injuries in the early part of the year and then get it going right around playoff time; this year, they dominated the West early and befell injuries to Conley and Allen in the last coupla months. They're not playing their best ball even though there were stretches when they were the best team. The Blazers are a mystery to me, I just don't see how they win so much. I like to watch them, I get the badassness of Aldridge, Batum (when healthy) is one of my favorite players, Lillard is as cold-blooded as anyone in the league right now. But it looks to me like they play too many minutes, there's not enough bench, they rely too much on a handful of guys overachieving, I'm mystified by their success in recent years. And without Wesley Matthews or even Afflalo for the next few games, I just don't see how they score more than the Grizzlies. In my narrative, the Grizzlies need to get together, need to knock down some outside shots and win tough games on the road, but I think they do it. The Grizz take game 6 at home.
Warriors over Pelicans in 4. Normally I think its good for scrambling young squads to make the playoffs but somehow I think the Pelicans would've been better off just missing out. I think they're about to get so roasted by the Warriors that it probably isn't worth the effort. And (reportedly) making the playoffs saved the jobs of the GM and coach, both of whom should probably be fired. And the roster still sucks going forward. They're built on Anthony Davis and they've mortgaged the future to try and build around him...and they haven't done that. They're a mediocre team and I don't think they'll be much better next year...after that its all up to Davis. (What if New Orleans loses Anthony Davis and Drew Brees in the same year? Lawd have mercy) The Warriors are in one of the best grooves I've ever seen in the NBA and the Pelicans have nothing to stop them. For the Pelicans to take even a single game I think it would require Davis having the game of his life AND someone else having the game of his life too! Nah, I don't think that happens, the Warriors will pummel these guys. (I'll take the Warriors to win the West)
Rockets over Mavs in 7. The Mavs season got derailed by the Rondo trade. They might've ended up with Knight and Kanter instead of Rondo and Amare, Goran Dragic was in play, Isiah Thomas, Josh Smith, there were other options out there but they panic-traded and got stuck with the booby prize. The offense is still potent enough and the defense crafty enough to give the Rockets a run. The Rockets go as far as James Harden carries them. So are the Rockets too one-dimensional to win or are they so singularly effective as to be unbeatable? Not sure. I think the Mavs can push on the Rockets but I think Harden pulls it out in game 7.
Spurs over Clippers in 7. I think Pop wanted to play the Clippers. I think Pop thinks, 'Those guys can beat us, might as well play them first'. If the Spurs are gonna lose, if Duncan and Ginobli ride off into the sunset (I think they come back one more year), might as well get the vacation started early. Or the Spurs respect the opponent, get in line, and let Pop guide them back to the Finals. Best 1st round series ever? Both teams are playing the best ball right now, both teams are ready for the playoffs, each team can beat the other. This is all good. Can't wait, gonna watch every game, I like the Spurs to not go out in the 1st round. Game 7 is gonna be an all-time classic.
Grizzlies over Blazers in 6. The Grizzlies usually fight injuries in the early part of the year and then get it going right around playoff time; this year, they dominated the West early and befell injuries to Conley and Allen in the last coupla months. They're not playing their best ball even though there were stretches when they were the best team. The Blazers are a mystery to me, I just don't see how they win so much. I like to watch them, I get the badassness of Aldridge, Batum (when healthy) is one of my favorite players, Lillard is as cold-blooded as anyone in the league right now. But it looks to me like they play too many minutes, there's not enough bench, they rely too much on a handful of guys overachieving, I'm mystified by their success in recent years. And without Wesley Matthews or even Afflalo for the next few games, I just don't see how they score more than the Grizzlies. In my narrative, the Grizzlies need to get together, need to knock down some outside shots and win tough games on the road, but I think they do it. The Grizz take game 6 at home.
Playoff Predictions (East, 1st round)
EAST
Hawks over Nets in 6. I like the Nets to give the Hawks a 1st round test with some veteran savvy and good luck. The Hawks haven't played their best ball in a coupla months now, probably could use a good punch in the face to get going. The Nets are terrible but they've got enough talent to give the Hawks pause. I like the Nets to take one in Atlanta, then win game 3 to go up 2-1. Then the Hawks get it together and bumrush past the Nets.
Cavs over Celtics in 4. I thought the Celtics would be awful all season long, getting rid of Rondo and Green was the only move to make, picking up Isiah Thomas and another pile of draft picks was just a bonus. Brad Stevens emerged as one of the great coaches in the game and he kept a mediocre crew of misfits on track to the playoffs. I think a playoff appearance beats a late lottery pick every day of the week: young players need to get into the party, the fans and local media need to be involved, free agents need to have some faith in your squad, and the difference btw the #12 pick and the #19 pick is not a big deal. That said, the Cavs have too much scoring for the Celtics to keep up. I like Celtics to keep every game competitive into the 4th quarter, I just don't think they'll pull out even a single game. Still an excellent season for the Celtics.
Bulls over Bucks in 6. The Bucks lost more games last year than the Knicks have this year...wow...think about that for a second. But that Bucks roster wasn't that bad, they just had a knack for giving away games. They gave Antetokounpo plenty of time to play, picked up Jabari and Jason Kidd (perhaps the pleasant-est surprise of the season), and became a much better team by just not being so bad any more. I like the direction of the franchise, I'm digging their vision of roster construction, good to see them in the post-season (though I'd love to see Jabari joining them). The Bulls, on the other hand, vastly overacheived last year, added a ton of talent (Pau, Mirotic, welcomed back D Rose), and everything more or less worked...so why aren't the Bulls better? All year long I've wondered why they aren't better. The easy answer is the continuing in-and-out-ness of D Rose but to my mind that shouldn't even matter. Based on what they did last year without him, seems like ANYTHING they get from Rose is a bonus. Add in a solid season from Pau, a great maturation year from Jimmy Butler, a top notch rookie season from Mirotic, the steady play of Noah and Gibson, getting Dunleavy back to his proper place in the rotation, shouldn't that alone be better than the previous season? Apparently not. They had 3 fewer W's and finished the same place in the conference table. Basketball, man... (The Bulls were my pre-season to win the East and I'm ready now to put them back in that place. They have to pull it together, if they do I have no doubt they can beat anyone in the East...even the Cavs and Hawks. I've got no real reason to think this will happen...but I do think it'll happen! I like the Bulls to win the East) The Bulls are better than the Bucks but not so much that they'll just roll through them. I think the Bucks will kick the Bulls into gear. I can see the Bucks taking one in Chicago, the Bulls coming back and winning two in Milwaukee.
Raptors over Wizards in 7. I thought both of these squads would be better this year, thought both would be really solid regular season teams that would have to re-prove themselves come playoff time. Well, one's gonna make the 2nd round and one ain't. I'll take the Raptors to win in game 7, just because....I dunno....the Raptors lost game 7 at home last year, be rugged to see them lose back to back home 7's.
Hawks over Nets in 6. I like the Nets to give the Hawks a 1st round test with some veteran savvy and good luck. The Hawks haven't played their best ball in a coupla months now, probably could use a good punch in the face to get going. The Nets are terrible but they've got enough talent to give the Hawks pause. I like the Nets to take one in Atlanta, then win game 3 to go up 2-1. Then the Hawks get it together and bumrush past the Nets.
Cavs over Celtics in 4. I thought the Celtics would be awful all season long, getting rid of Rondo and Green was the only move to make, picking up Isiah Thomas and another pile of draft picks was just a bonus. Brad Stevens emerged as one of the great coaches in the game and he kept a mediocre crew of misfits on track to the playoffs. I think a playoff appearance beats a late lottery pick every day of the week: young players need to get into the party, the fans and local media need to be involved, free agents need to have some faith in your squad, and the difference btw the #12 pick and the #19 pick is not a big deal. That said, the Cavs have too much scoring for the Celtics to keep up. I like Celtics to keep every game competitive into the 4th quarter, I just don't think they'll pull out even a single game. Still an excellent season for the Celtics.
Bulls over Bucks in 6. The Bucks lost more games last year than the Knicks have this year...wow...think about that for a second. But that Bucks roster wasn't that bad, they just had a knack for giving away games. They gave Antetokounpo plenty of time to play, picked up Jabari and Jason Kidd (perhaps the pleasant-est surprise of the season), and became a much better team by just not being so bad any more. I like the direction of the franchise, I'm digging their vision of roster construction, good to see them in the post-season (though I'd love to see Jabari joining them). The Bulls, on the other hand, vastly overacheived last year, added a ton of talent (Pau, Mirotic, welcomed back D Rose), and everything more or less worked...so why aren't the Bulls better? All year long I've wondered why they aren't better. The easy answer is the continuing in-and-out-ness of D Rose but to my mind that shouldn't even matter. Based on what they did last year without him, seems like ANYTHING they get from Rose is a bonus. Add in a solid season from Pau, a great maturation year from Jimmy Butler, a top notch rookie season from Mirotic, the steady play of Noah and Gibson, getting Dunleavy back to his proper place in the rotation, shouldn't that alone be better than the previous season? Apparently not. They had 3 fewer W's and finished the same place in the conference table. Basketball, man... (The Bulls were my pre-season to win the East and I'm ready now to put them back in that place. They have to pull it together, if they do I have no doubt they can beat anyone in the East...even the Cavs and Hawks. I've got no real reason to think this will happen...but I do think it'll happen! I like the Bulls to win the East) The Bulls are better than the Bucks but not so much that they'll just roll through them. I think the Bucks will kick the Bulls into gear. I can see the Bucks taking one in Chicago, the Bulls coming back and winning two in Milwaukee.
Raptors over Wizards in 7. I thought both of these squads would be better this year, thought both would be really solid regular season teams that would have to re-prove themselves come playoff time. Well, one's gonna make the 2nd round and one ain't. I'll take the Raptors to win in game 7, just because....I dunno....the Raptors lost game 7 at home last year, be rugged to see them lose back to back home 7's.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
A Thought About John Calipari
Its that time of year when pundits and wags ponder which NBA city Calipari will parachute off to. I've always been skeptical of Calipari going back to the NBA because he knows better than anyone how hard it is to win. And at this point in his life I reckon Calipari would rather be a winner than just about anything else. Furthermore, his skill set is better suited to college: he takes high school kids and he turns them into pros. That's what he does, that's his thing. I don't mean to suggest he'd be a terrible choice to coach the Knicks or Lakers or whoever the team d'jour, just that his skill set is in molding and shaping pros not dealing with the finished product. (I do believe Cal would be interested in coaching USA if/when Coach K ever shuffles off, but that shouldn't interrupt Wildcat time)
At Kentucky Cal is free to control every minute of every day whereas in the pros he'd be well paid to be helpless. The NBA can't guarantee success or control or glory. All the NBA can provide is more money...I hate to be that guy but...Kentucky can come up with more money if that's all it is. Kentucky is the perfect spot for Cal to hone his skills, pile up W's, maybe another championship or two (though beware Cats fans: he prizes high draft picks as much as if not more than banners), before he gets a plum gig at ESPN and basks in his Hall of Fame retirement. The NBA is a hassle, winning is great but losing probably sucks pretty bad. If the perfect NBA gig came along Cal would have to think it over, leverage the offer if nothing else, but even with the perfect gig it would be hard to leave UK (4 Finals Fours in 6 years, remember).
Say the soon to be playoff-tested New Orleans Pelicans decide Monte Williams just isn't the guy to steward Anthony Davis going forward and fire him (very possible, maybe even likely, btw), who better to get the most out of AD than his old ball coach, Cal. Would Cal jump at the job of well-paid mentor to the most exciting, arguably all-around best basketball player in the world? No. The rest of the roster is a mess and the Western Conference is murder, having the best player is a great advantage in basketball but it ain't everything. And as long as the Pelicans are mired with the likes Evans (another Cal men-tee), Gordon (still the worst contract in the league), Holiday (nice player but oft-injured) and no draft picks coming, that gig would be a pain in the ass even with Anthony Davis on your roster.
So even though it happens every year and will continue to happen, I don't see Cal leaving UK. Unless...imagine this scenario: the Cavs make mincemeat of the Celtics, then get tested by the Bulls, they pull together, Love hits a few big shots, the Cavs breeze through the East, bond as a team Spur-style, then get waxed in the Finals. The team needs a fall guy for losing in the Finals. Not Lebron, not Kyrie, not Love (now an integral part of the offense and positive vibe, sticks around instead of bailing), not Varajao or Thompson or Mozgov. Lebron says Blatt has to go. Would that be a good spot for Cal? Fuck yeah it would!
Lebron and Kyrie pretty much guarantee dominance in the East for the next 5-6 years (maybe not Jordan-Pippen dominance or even Lebron-Bosh-Wade dominance, probably more like a Chauncey-Tayshaun-Rasheed-Rip kinda dominance). In the scenario above, Love sticks around and the three of them make it work, the rest of the cast is pretty well set with enough cap flexibility to stay frisky. Dude that team is gonna crush in the East. And all Cal has to do is show up to the press conferences. As we all know Lebron is already the GM and head coach, Cal would basically just be a freelance media consultant to Lebron, more of an assistant to Lebron than a control freak kinda coach. Love is key: without Love the roster is out of balance and while Lebron-Kyrie will be attractive to free agents, you never know who's gonna be available down the road. Keeping Love as a successful part of the tandem is just too good to pass up. Also, if Love splits, then he becomes the scapegoat and potentially buys Blatt another year to discover the best ways to remove thorns from Lebron's paws as a way of keeping himself useful.
Lebron and Kyrie pretty much guarantee dominance in the East for the next 5-6 years (maybe not Jordan-Pippen dominance or even Lebron-Bosh-Wade dominance, probably more like a Chauncey-Tayshaun-Rasheed-Rip kinda dominance). In the scenario above, Love sticks around and the three of them make it work, the rest of the cast is pretty well set with enough cap flexibility to stay frisky. Dude that team is gonna crush in the East. And all Cal has to do is show up to the press conferences. As we all know Lebron is already the GM and head coach, Cal would basically just be a freelance media consultant to Lebron, more of an assistant to Lebron than a control freak kinda coach. Love is key: without Love the roster is out of balance and while Lebron-Kyrie will be attractive to free agents, you never know who's gonna be available down the road. Keeping Love as a successful part of the tandem is just too good to pass up. Also, if Love splits, then he becomes the scapegoat and potentially buys Blatt another year to discover the best ways to remove thorns from Lebron's paws as a way of keeping himself useful.
Lebron-Kyrie-Love coming together and ALMOST winning is the beauty scenario--and I would suggest truly the only scenario--that gets Cal back to the NBA. Think about it: Lebron is Sinatra, Kyrie is Sammy D, Love is Peter Lawford, Cal slides right in as Dean Martin. David Blatt is more of a Joey Bishop. Cal would be the perfect foil for Lebron: the coach who would say all the right things and never get in the damn way. Of course, the scenario above is really quite sensitive, a lot of things could conspire to bring back Blatt or drive away Love or otherwise muck up the perfect vibe Cal is seeking. But if it came to pass and Cal thought he could go pro with a killer squad in the East, I reckon he might jump on that....and that might happen some time in late June.
If Cal leaves will Kentucky be able to hold on to Cal's recruiting network? And can UK pry Brad Stevens away from the Celtics? Stevens is the only one who could follow Cal.
Monday, March 16, 2015
Kentucky's Path to the Championship
As a Cats fan I was hoping the bracket would look like this: Robert Morris (1st), UConn (2nd), Michigan State (Sweet 16), Duke (Elite 8), Wisconsin (Final 4). For the Final game: Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga, Villanova, UNC would all make excellent opponents.
The Robert Morris matchup....come on, its perfect whether you like the Cats or not. How the committee skipped over that is kind of a mystery to me.
If UConn had won the Big East (or whatever the Big East is called these days), they likely would've gone in as a 7-9 seed, allowing for an early rematch of last year's Final. But more than that UConn is responsible for UK's last two losses in the tourney: 2014 final, 2011 semi-final. (UK won in 2012 and didn't even make the tourney in 2013) Getting revenge on the way back to the championship is sweet but in this case it would've been double sweet for Calipari.
Michigan State and UK have played many many many times over the years, its never a bad idea to get them together again. For Mich St coming in as a 4 seed, hey, you were gonna have to beat Kentucky at some point, might as well be early on. And for UK, no specific revenge (2005, 1999 Elite Eights were losses to Sparty), just a good test along the way.
Duke v Kentucky in the Elite Eight. That should probably happen every year IMHO. Duke has nice W's throughout the year but I think putting them as #2 overall is a bit rich, no? They just went out in the semi-finals of the ACC tourney, how good are they playing right now? The television loves Duke, the media loves Coach K, just how it works I guess. We could have a Duke-UK final...though I don't think Duke's good enough to make that happen. We'll see. Okafor is a badass but otherwise it doesn't look like a strong Duke side to me.
Wisconsin in the Final Four would be a rematch of last year's semi-final and Wisconsin is one of the few teams out there that gives me pause this year as a Cats fan. They've had success, they're older and wiser, they're tough players, Bo Ryan is a helluva coach, they frankly shoulda beat UK last year and I don't think they'd have any fear or any quit in them at all. That said, I think Kentucky is still better and would be better on that night but Wisconsin would make UK work for it in a way the Cats haven't had to do much this year.
UK's bracket does feature Cincinnati (don't remember the last time we played the Bearcats), Notre Dame (defeated UK in Billy Clyde-led NIT bid and beat UK soundly last year in the regular season), Maryland (not a fierce rivalry but UK-Mary have played many times in the regular season over the years), West Virginia (one of the most crushing defeats of my Cat-watching life was the 2009 Elite 8 losing to WVU and then DUKE won the whole frickin' thing! Oooohhhhh, man, that one still hurts), and Kansas (they...uh...unh, can't remember the last time we lost to Kansas, one of those crappy Rajon Rondo years maybe?). (I think Notre Dame beats Kansas with UK beating Maryland in the Sweet 16 and Notre Dame in the Elite 8)
I knew UK was a Final Four team long before the season began. I watched all 6 of their scrimmages last summer in the Bahamas and I was impressed from the very start--and that was without Willie Cauley and Lyles, with Hawkins and Willis playing big minutes. Their first opponent was the Puerto Rican national team gearing up for their appearance in last year's FIBA World Cup. They came in as a veteran squad of professional basketball players that had been playing national level elite competition for several months going into this scrimmage against Kentucky. The Cats were a fine collection of young talent, coming off a troubling but ultimately overachieving year sprinkled with some kids fresh out of high school and a coupla veteran role players that hadn't really played much. And the very first time these UK players stepped on the court together they smoked a national team on its way to the World Cup. They smoked 'em. No hesitation, no doubt who was the better team. And two days later they came back and smoked 'em again (though admittedly the Puerto Ricans were clearly mailing it in the 2nd time around). I've loved Kentucky basketball all my life but I must say as a basketball fan I was impressed. Even more impressed than the first time I saw the Anthony Davis/MKG/Kyle Wiltjer Cats that glided to a championship 3 years ago.
Personally I've been queasy about the undefeated thing all year long, I was glad when the 2012 team lost at Indiana (thought it was the perfect outcome: a loss at the buzzer on the road at a high ranking rival), it gave them just enough humility to comfortably pummel all comers. This year's team probably should've lost a few games but this team is so deep--soooooooo deeeeeeeep--that even when they tried to give away games, they couldn't do it! This team just couldn't lose. And UK doesn't get to have any defeats any more so I guess I'm all in on the undefeated season now.
What UK is susceptible to is losing focus. If UK comes out lackadaisical and the opponent gets hot (I mean 3's, FT's and fast break points) and stays hot for 40 minutes, then UK might could fall apart. If we're not getting the calls (like against Arkansas the other day--how many times did a Harrison get smacked straight in the face without a foul call in that game?), we're not hitting 3's, not getting into our transition defense or gambling too much on defense or if we just turn the ball over too many times to keep pace, then UK might get beat.
Yeah...I really don't see any of that happening. This team is so beautiful to watch, they are so reliant on each other, opportunistic because they trust each other, they get hot because everybody wants each other to get hot and make plays and the talent and size are rich at every position. They have way too much talent, size and depth to be over matched by anyone. This team is so good defensively (there's no one out there that can fill it up against UK), that even though this is hardly a vintage offensive machine, they slow everyone else down to where they just naturally outscore everyone they play. And they really get up for the big games, which is why I had hoped for more rivalry games.
I'm not trying to be a gloater and I'll be crushed if the Cats lose but I don't think they're gonna lose. I think they're gonna play their best basketball for the next 6 games and no one is gonna come close to hanging with them. They're not gonna lose focus now, they're too close to getting it done.
The Robert Morris matchup....come on, its perfect whether you like the Cats or not. How the committee skipped over that is kind of a mystery to me.
If UConn had won the Big East (or whatever the Big East is called these days), they likely would've gone in as a 7-9 seed, allowing for an early rematch of last year's Final. But more than that UConn is responsible for UK's last two losses in the tourney: 2014 final, 2011 semi-final. (UK won in 2012 and didn't even make the tourney in 2013) Getting revenge on the way back to the championship is sweet but in this case it would've been double sweet for Calipari.
Michigan State and UK have played many many many times over the years, its never a bad idea to get them together again. For Mich St coming in as a 4 seed, hey, you were gonna have to beat Kentucky at some point, might as well be early on. And for UK, no specific revenge (2005, 1999 Elite Eights were losses to Sparty), just a good test along the way.
Duke v Kentucky in the Elite Eight. That should probably happen every year IMHO. Duke has nice W's throughout the year but I think putting them as #2 overall is a bit rich, no? They just went out in the semi-finals of the ACC tourney, how good are they playing right now? The television loves Duke, the media loves Coach K, just how it works I guess. We could have a Duke-UK final...though I don't think Duke's good enough to make that happen. We'll see. Okafor is a badass but otherwise it doesn't look like a strong Duke side to me.
Wisconsin in the Final Four would be a rematch of last year's semi-final and Wisconsin is one of the few teams out there that gives me pause this year as a Cats fan. They've had success, they're older and wiser, they're tough players, Bo Ryan is a helluva coach, they frankly shoulda beat UK last year and I don't think they'd have any fear or any quit in them at all. That said, I think Kentucky is still better and would be better on that night but Wisconsin would make UK work for it in a way the Cats haven't had to do much this year.
UK's bracket does feature Cincinnati (don't remember the last time we played the Bearcats), Notre Dame (defeated UK in Billy Clyde-led NIT bid and beat UK soundly last year in the regular season), Maryland (not a fierce rivalry but UK-Mary have played many times in the regular season over the years), West Virginia (one of the most crushing defeats of my Cat-watching life was the 2009 Elite 8 losing to WVU and then DUKE won the whole frickin' thing! Oooohhhhh, man, that one still hurts), and Kansas (they...uh...unh, can't remember the last time we lost to Kansas, one of those crappy Rajon Rondo years maybe?). (I think Notre Dame beats Kansas with UK beating Maryland in the Sweet 16 and Notre Dame in the Elite 8)
Personally I've been queasy about the undefeated thing all year long, I was glad when the 2012 team lost at Indiana (thought it was the perfect outcome: a loss at the buzzer on the road at a high ranking rival), it gave them just enough humility to comfortably pummel all comers. This year's team probably should've lost a few games but this team is so deep--soooooooo deeeeeeeep--that even when they tried to give away games, they couldn't do it! This team just couldn't lose. And UK doesn't get to have any defeats any more so I guess I'm all in on the undefeated season now.
What UK is susceptible to is losing focus. If UK comes out lackadaisical and the opponent gets hot (I mean 3's, FT's and fast break points) and stays hot for 40 minutes, then UK might could fall apart. If we're not getting the calls (like against Arkansas the other day--how many times did a Harrison get smacked straight in the face without a foul call in that game?), we're not hitting 3's, not getting into our transition defense or gambling too much on defense or if we just turn the ball over too many times to keep pace, then UK might get beat.
Yeah...I really don't see any of that happening. This team is so beautiful to watch, they are so reliant on each other, opportunistic because they trust each other, they get hot because everybody wants each other to get hot and make plays and the talent and size are rich at every position. They have way too much talent, size and depth to be over matched by anyone. This team is so good defensively (there's no one out there that can fill it up against UK), that even though this is hardly a vintage offensive machine, they slow everyone else down to where they just naturally outscore everyone they play. And they really get up for the big games, which is why I had hoped for more rivalry games.
I'm not trying to be a gloater and I'll be crushed if the Cats lose but I don't think they're gonna lose. I think they're gonna play their best basketball for the next 6 games and no one is gonna come close to hanging with them. They're not gonna lose focus now, they're too close to getting it done.
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