Top tier (France, Brazil)
These two are gonna be hard to beat. Right now, I'd say this is your final (or semifinal, at least).
Pretty good (Ecuador, Senegal, England, Spain, Switzerland, Portugal)
I was impressed by Ecuador's scoring ability, they are legit dangerous around the goal. Likewise with Senegal--that's gonna be a good match! Winner is in, loser is almost certainly out.
England must have felt pretty good about putting the wood to Iran (who looked listless in that match), but must've felt pretty awkward about their lackluster draw against USA (thought USA was better but they each walked away with a point). Will there be nerves against Wales? I doubt it but they could really use the W.
I wasn't sure what to expect from Spain and while I was reasonably impressed with them running it up against Costa Rica, I took that result with a grain of salt. They were better than Germany and if they'd held on to the W, they'd be riding high. As it is, they look good to move on but they need a positive outcome with Japan and that won't be a gimme.
Switzerland showed off a solid defense against Brazil and pretty good offense against Cameroon. They need a positive result against Serbia to move on, so what's their plan? I think they're a solid team but they'll need to take control to be dangerous going forward.
Portugal is already through to the round of 16 and they look pretty good, but I haven't been blown away by them. Not sure if they'll bring maximum effort against South Korea.
So far so good (Netherlands, Iran, Poland, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Costa Rica, Croatia, Morocco, Cameroon, Serbia, Ghana)
Netherlands are nice, not blowing me away but they're on their way to the next round.
Iran has had a rugged run in this tourney, reflecting the political unrest back home. Their performance against England is arguably the worst anyone has played so far. But they bounced back with a good W against Wales and are staring down a win-and-in match against the great Satan (well, I don't know that USA is that great). Iran's legacy has the widest variance at the moment, they may look back on the 2022 World Cup with great pride or great shame. We'll see.
Poland is nice, competent, the more they get the ball to Lewandowski the better off they are. Not completely sold on them but any team with Lewandowski has a shot at moving on.
Argentina's opening L to Saudi Arabia will go down as one of the great upsets of all time in the World Cup group phase. But they righted the ship against Mexico--well, sorta: two moments of brilliance netted them two goals but honestly the other 89 minutes were pretty even. My initial thought was that Argentina was the team that brought the old squad one year too long, but it could be that this Mexico crop is just kinda disappointing. I'm not sure I'm in on Argentina just yet, it is very possible that they are too old.
Saudi Arabia snuck two quick goals (both beauties, incidentally) to shock Argentina, so this team has pretty much already earned a lifetime of blow jobs regardless of where they go from here. These guys are playing on house money, not sure if they're any good at all.
Japan is a nice squad. When they tied up Germany I thought they earned their draw, but when they got that 2nd goal, I was impressed at their ability to stand up to a (hmmm...."better"....let's say "more talented") side. I thought they were merely unlucky against Costa Rica and now even after a full-on shocking upset, they're still playing for their lives against Spain. They'll need another big steal to keep going.
Costa Rica got shell shocked by Spain, but I think they just had a bad day (I like Spain but even I was like, 'they're not this good'). They rebounded nicely against Japan and have to face a German side that's been backed into a corner--a match that will be a fun one because both teams got nothing better to do than fight to the death. (I can totally see Costa Rica sneaking through)
Croatia is another in the 'are they too old?' discussion. I haven't made up my mind. They looked sluggish against Morocco and exposed Canada as possibly the worst team in the tourney. So are they any good? Will Belgium finally show up and play or can Croatia go ahead and make their plans for the round of 16? Not sure.
Serbia is nice but let's be honest: they're Poland without Lewandowski and that's not so sexy.
Morocco, Cameroon, Ghana: three African representatives have had good moments and bad moments. They've shown that they can hang and possibly score, each of them has a solid W. Not sure which ones move on, though.
Lucky to still be alive (USA, Mexico, Denmark, Tunisia, Germany, South Korea, Uruguay)
USA played well against Wales and England but couldn't outscore either opponent, now they must--MUST--beat Iran to move on. I think the Americans are in the top 16 but we'll see if they actually make it.
Mexico just doesn't have much scoring threat in that lineup, which is odd because they're always kinda spicy. They should beat Saudi Arabia but they need to score some goals (and get lucky) to move on.
Denmark just couldn't find the goal against Tunisia (who isn't bad) and got beat by a better team in France. They've got to beat Australia, which they are capable of doing, to move on.
Tunisia is a hard working side but I'd be shocked if they got a worthwhile result against France. Nice team but not superlative.
Germany got unlucky against Japan and lucky against Spain. I don't recall ever seeing a German side that needed "luck". Where is this team? They've clearly got the talent but they have yet to pull it together.
South Korea is a nice team, though not particularly dangerous up front. I wouldn't be surprised to see them snag a W against Portugal but that might not be enough.
Uruguay just couldn't take control against Portugal or South Korea and I don't see them beating Ghana, either. There's always at least one team that brings their old stars back one time too many, looks like Uruguay could be one of those teams.
Not good (Australia, Belgium, Wales)
Australia is like bigger tougher Canada: they play hard but they're just not particularly good at soccer.
Belgium was my pre-tourney pick to win it all and...uh...that ain't happening. They had one brilliant moment against Canada and made it hold up (got lucky many times in that match) but never did anything at all against Morocco, who legit outplayed them for 90 minutes. Belgium is still alive but unless DeBruyne and Wittsel get it going, this team will be one of the biggest disappointments of recent years.
Yeah, yeah, I get it: it was a penalty, there's no overturning that call. (*) Fine. But getting fouled in the box that one time is all they've done in this tourney so far.
Bottom of the barrel (Qatar, Canada)
I was surprised how bad Qatar was, they looked pretty good to me in last summer's friendlies, but, man, they stink at everything.
Canada outplayed Belgium for about 89 minutes and 55 seconds but couldn't find the net and then just ran out of gas after an early strike against Croatia. Canada has never been particularly good at soccer, just being here is their peak.
(*) All I'm saying is Zimmerman was playing the ball, while Bale was just looking for a foul. Not overturning the call, I get that, but it was a lame play.
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