Wednesday, October 8, 2014

NBA Draft Recap: Houston Rockets

The Rockets used their 1st round pick (#25) on Switzerland center, Clint Capela, and their 2nd round pick (#42) on Arizona SG Nick Johnson.  Capela seems like a stash job but he does appear to be on the active roster; on the other hand, the Rockets still have cuts to make before the season starts so perhaps they'll reserve his cap hit and send him back to Europe for a year.  Johnson, too, is on the roster and while he is the reigning Pac-12 Player of the Year, he projects as a tweener in the NBA; until he can prove that he can either be a proficient PG off the bench or show that he can guard wing shooters despite his diminutive stature, I suspect he'll only get injury-time minutes this season.

The Rockets aren't a team built around draft picks, they prefer flashy free agents.  This summer they swung and missed at Lebron, Melo and Bosh after moving Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik.  But they made up for it by trading for Trevor Ariza and Jason Terry and luring Kostas Papanicklau from Greece....almost as good, right?  4 of the top 9 in minutes played last year have moved on leaving a core of Howard, Harden, Jones, Beverley, Motejunas to go with Ariza, Papanicklau and Terry.

Its good to have two big stars but personally I think Harden and Howard are the two flakiest big stars in the league.  Harden's game is effective (if annoying) but only if the refs aren't buying his schtick, I feel like his puddle dries up pretty fast.  Howard is still an above average rebounder, shotblocker and all-round defensive badass but after all these years in the league he's still a project on offense.  If Harden dedicates himself to greatness as he did with Team USA this summer, then he could be among the most reliable scorers around; but if not he won't get the respect he needs to make his game work and that could mean a long frustrating season for the anchor of this offense.

Ariza is not as good as Parsons, that is not an upgrade in the near term or the long.  Terry can be a valuable asset on a really good team but utterly useless to a floundering one.  I like Terence Jones and I think he can get better this year but his offense is a bonus not a bedrock, if it comes down to his production then the Rockets are going down hard.  Ditto Motejunas and Beverley.  Can they make moves during the season?  Well, they'll certainly be in the Rajon Rondo trade talks but how do they get him?  Do the Celtics want Jason Terry back?  (No)  Are they interested in paying Trevor Ariza $8m for 3 more years?  (No)  That 1st round pick from the Pelicans might look interesting if they falter but beyond that, I don't see that the Rockets have anything to barter.  This team is Harden and whoever.

In the end the Rockets are just too one-note to be terribly effective and while they're scrappy defensively, I don't see them as a top 10 defense.  I think the Rockets are amongst a pack of 5 or 6 teams fighting for the last few playoff spots in the West.  I don't think this team has improved from last year so I just don't see how they match their 5th place finish last year.

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