The Thunder had two 1st round picks, #21 where they took Mitch McGary (F/C Michigan) and #29 where they took Josh Huestis (SF/PF Stanford), and acquired #55 Semaj Christon (SG Xavier) from the Hornets. The controversial portion of this news is that Huestis was apparently picked solely for their D-League team, a strategy that no NBA team has yet employed; we'll see if it bears fruit. I would suggest that not drafting Cleanthony Early (SG/SF Wichita State) is the real head-scratcher: they could've had a local-ish guy who fits their offensive scheme that I am convinced is going to be a good player and instead they draft a guy for another team's bench. I don't get it. This is how you support KD and Westbrook?
Indeed, I don't get much of anything OKC has done over the years. Last year this team had 7 guys that played 78 or more games: Durant, Ibaka, Derek Fisher, Collison, Adams, Jackson, Lamb. That's a lot of wear and tear for not much (outside of KD and Ibaka) production. Throw in that down the stretch they gave big minutes to Caron Butler and still rely heavily on Kendrick Perkins and you see why Durant won his MVP: he carried this team by himself to the 2nd best record in the league, I can understand that Durant and Westbrook are the focus, they are handling the ball the majority of the time, they are the vast majority of the production (and the salary cap) and you don't want to have too many guys getting in the way of that. But why not give them some support? Why not bulk up the bench depth? Why not look to the future? As much praise as the OKC front office deserves for drafting well for three straight years, they deserve blame for not doing much of anything else since. Their big free agent signings this summer were Anthony Morrow (yawn) and Sebastain Telfair (spit take!). This is how you plan on luring Durant back to OKC when his contract is up?
That said, I still expect OKC to finish 2nd or maybe 3rd in the West and probably get at least to the conference finals. KD is that good, man. And Westbrook is too. They've got 2 of the best players in the league even if they've got the sorriest depth around behind them. We'll see if Perry Jones, Andre Roberson and Lamb can develop. We'll see what they can get out of McGary and Telfair. Going forward extending KD and re-signing Reggie Jackson will keep them busy next summer. Until then just ride KD and Westbrook as far they can carry you.
If I were KD my bags would already be packed, I'd have apartments in 5 or 6 different cities just in case and I'd have my agent ready to get the Melo/Love-style trade complaint machine ready to go. If I were Westbrook I'd be taking notes on how KD orchestrates his removal from this kooky franchise.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
NBA Draft Recap: Orlando Magic
Orlando used the 4th pick in the draft on Aaron Gordon (PF from Arizona) and flipped the #12 pick and a coupla future picks for #10 Elfrid Payton (PG from Louisiana-Lafayette). The Magic chose to skip on PG Dante Exum which allowed them to get a rangy power forward to add to the youth movement in the front line...and get fleeced by the Sixers...and still get a top flight PG prospect in Payton. Indeed with Exum's PG skills in question they were probably better off getting a legit PG instead of another project for the back court. A draft day trade also netted them the #56 pick, Roy Devin Marble (SF from Iowa).
The front court has a load of interesting young talent that is now deeper and younger with the addition of Gordon. The free agent signing of Channing Frye, an under appreciated stretch-4, gives them a veteran presence to mold the youth movement. I thought it was a weird signing at first but the more I think about it the more I like it: Frye does the little things without hogging attention from the rest of the squad and it's a declining contract. They'll go into the season with a front court of Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Maurice Harkless, Andrew Nicholson, Kyle O'Quinn to go with Frye, Gordon, Marble and Dwayne Dedmon. Unpredictable but promising.
Two other free agent signings still make no sense to me: Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour. I'm usually more measured in my pronouncements but these guys are horrible. I always thought Gordon was overrated in his prime and that was several seasons ago; Ridnour moves well but his surprising athleticism hides the fact that he's actually a step behind the game on the court, hardly the veteran leadership you'd want from a free agent pickup. I guess the Magic see them as reasonably priced, non-threatening veterans to sheepdog the youth movement. In the case of Frye, I get it, in the case of Gordon and Ridnour, I don't. They also brought Evan Fournier in a trade, a young SG who had some nice moments for France in the FIBA World Cup, and picked up Peyton Siva for 1 unguaranteed year after he was cast off by Stan Van in Detroit. That gives them a back court of Payton, Oladipo, Fournier, Gordon, Ridnour and Siva. Again: unpredictable but promising.
Check out the guys that are already gone from last year: Big Baby Davis, Aron Aflalo, Jameer Nelson, Jason Maxiell, Solomon Jones, Doron Lamb, E'Twaun Moore. The sheep has been sheared to a few layers of intriguing young talent: Oladipo, Payton, Aaron Gordon and Frye are built to be the core going forward; we can already assume that Ridnour, Siva and Ben Gordon won't be back next year; Vucevic, Harris and O'Quinn did not get their long term extensions this off-season leaving them to audition for long term deals; and Harkless, Nicholson and Fournier are playing for their options to be picked up next summer. The roster is designed to make for a lot of hungry players looking for their next deal. Who will get to stay in the NBA and who will be joining Michael Beasley in China?
My guess is this team will be uneven all season long and be bottom feeders in the East but that may be unimaginative on my part. There are a lot of talented, hungry players here and some of them will have fine seasons (at least, you'd like to think so). I don't have any idea which will be the good ones and who will be the also-rans and how much of the development of Oladipo and Payton will matter to the rest of the the players. Also (a la the Sixers), how much of the core going forward will be judged by the team's record? Does the Magic management value wins or are there other value metrics that interest them? Are these guys free to pile up stats and highlights with little pressure to win or is a playoff appearance a necessity? I dunno. At best they could be in the hunt for a playoff spot, at worst they could be getting fleeced by the Sixers again next year. Either way, I'm betting that the Magic will be fun to watch this year, a regular on my League Pass.
The front court has a load of interesting young talent that is now deeper and younger with the addition of Gordon. The free agent signing of Channing Frye, an under appreciated stretch-4, gives them a veteran presence to mold the youth movement. I thought it was a weird signing at first but the more I think about it the more I like it: Frye does the little things without hogging attention from the rest of the squad and it's a declining contract. They'll go into the season with a front court of Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Maurice Harkless, Andrew Nicholson, Kyle O'Quinn to go with Frye, Gordon, Marble and Dwayne Dedmon. Unpredictable but promising.
Two other free agent signings still make no sense to me: Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour. I'm usually more measured in my pronouncements but these guys are horrible. I always thought Gordon was overrated in his prime and that was several seasons ago; Ridnour moves well but his surprising athleticism hides the fact that he's actually a step behind the game on the court, hardly the veteran leadership you'd want from a free agent pickup. I guess the Magic see them as reasonably priced, non-threatening veterans to sheepdog the youth movement. In the case of Frye, I get it, in the case of Gordon and Ridnour, I don't. They also brought Evan Fournier in a trade, a young SG who had some nice moments for France in the FIBA World Cup, and picked up Peyton Siva for 1 unguaranteed year after he was cast off by Stan Van in Detroit. That gives them a back court of Payton, Oladipo, Fournier, Gordon, Ridnour and Siva. Again: unpredictable but promising.
Check out the guys that are already gone from last year: Big Baby Davis, Aron Aflalo, Jameer Nelson, Jason Maxiell, Solomon Jones, Doron Lamb, E'Twaun Moore. The sheep has been sheared to a few layers of intriguing young talent: Oladipo, Payton, Aaron Gordon and Frye are built to be the core going forward; we can already assume that Ridnour, Siva and Ben Gordon won't be back next year; Vucevic, Harris and O'Quinn did not get their long term extensions this off-season leaving them to audition for long term deals; and Harkless, Nicholson and Fournier are playing for their options to be picked up next summer. The roster is designed to make for a lot of hungry players looking for their next deal. Who will get to stay in the NBA and who will be joining Michael Beasley in China?
My guess is this team will be uneven all season long and be bottom feeders in the East but that may be unimaginative on my part. There are a lot of talented, hungry players here and some of them will have fine seasons (at least, you'd like to think so). I don't have any idea which will be the good ones and who will be the also-rans and how much of the development of Oladipo and Payton will matter to the rest of the the players. Also (a la the Sixers), how much of the core going forward will be judged by the team's record? Does the Magic management value wins or are there other value metrics that interest them? Are these guys free to pile up stats and highlights with little pressure to win or is a playoff appearance a necessity? I dunno. At best they could be in the hunt for a playoff spot, at worst they could be getting fleeced by the Sixers again next year. Either way, I'm betting that the Magic will be fun to watch this year, a regular on my League Pass.
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
NBA Draft Recap: Houston Rockets
The Rockets used their 1st round pick (#25) on Switzerland center, Clint Capela, and their 2nd round pick (#42) on Arizona SG Nick Johnson. Capela seems like a stash job but he does appear to be on the active roster; on the other hand, the Rockets still have cuts to make before the season starts so perhaps they'll reserve his cap hit and send him back to Europe for a year. Johnson, too, is on the roster and while he is the reigning Pac-12 Player of the Year, he projects as a tweener in the NBA; until he can prove that he can either be a proficient PG off the bench or show that he can guard wing shooters despite his diminutive stature, I suspect he'll only get injury-time minutes this season.
The Rockets aren't a team built around draft picks, they prefer flashy free agents. This summer they swung and missed at Lebron, Melo and Bosh after moving Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik. But they made up for it by trading for Trevor Ariza and Jason Terry and luring Kostas Papanicklau from Greece....almost as good, right? 4 of the top 9 in minutes played last year have moved on leaving a core of Howard, Harden, Jones, Beverley, Motejunas to go with Ariza, Papanicklau and Terry.
Its good to have two big stars but personally I think Harden and Howard are the two flakiest big stars in the league. Harden's game is effective (if annoying) but only if the refs aren't buying his schtick, I feel like his puddle dries up pretty fast. Howard is still an above average rebounder, shotblocker and all-round defensive badass but after all these years in the league he's still a project on offense. If Harden dedicates himself to greatness as he did with Team USA this summer, then he could be among the most reliable scorers around; but if not he won't get the respect he needs to make his game work and that could mean a long frustrating season for the anchor of this offense.
Ariza is not as good as Parsons, that is not an upgrade in the near term or the long. Terry can be a valuable asset on a really good team but utterly useless to a floundering one. I like Terence Jones and I think he can get better this year but his offense is a bonus not a bedrock, if it comes down to his production then the Rockets are going down hard. Ditto Motejunas and Beverley. Can they make moves during the season? Well, they'll certainly be in the Rajon Rondo trade talks but how do they get him? Do the Celtics want Jason Terry back? (No) Are they interested in paying Trevor Ariza $8m for 3 more years? (No) That 1st round pick from the Pelicans might look interesting if they falter but beyond that, I don't see that the Rockets have anything to barter. This team is Harden and whoever.
In the end the Rockets are just too one-note to be terribly effective and while they're scrappy defensively, I don't see them as a top 10 defense. I think the Rockets are amongst a pack of 5 or 6 teams fighting for the last few playoff spots in the West. I don't think this team has improved from last year so I just don't see how they match their 5th place finish last year.
The Rockets aren't a team built around draft picks, they prefer flashy free agents. This summer they swung and missed at Lebron, Melo and Bosh after moving Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik. But they made up for it by trading for Trevor Ariza and Jason Terry and luring Kostas Papanicklau from Greece....almost as good, right? 4 of the top 9 in minutes played last year have moved on leaving a core of Howard, Harden, Jones, Beverley, Motejunas to go with Ariza, Papanicklau and Terry.
Its good to have two big stars but personally I think Harden and Howard are the two flakiest big stars in the league. Harden's game is effective (if annoying) but only if the refs aren't buying his schtick, I feel like his puddle dries up pretty fast. Howard is still an above average rebounder, shotblocker and all-round defensive badass but after all these years in the league he's still a project on offense. If Harden dedicates himself to greatness as he did with Team USA this summer, then he could be among the most reliable scorers around; but if not he won't get the respect he needs to make his game work and that could mean a long frustrating season for the anchor of this offense.
Ariza is not as good as Parsons, that is not an upgrade in the near term or the long. Terry can be a valuable asset on a really good team but utterly useless to a floundering one. I like Terence Jones and I think he can get better this year but his offense is a bonus not a bedrock, if it comes down to his production then the Rockets are going down hard. Ditto Motejunas and Beverley. Can they make moves during the season? Well, they'll certainly be in the Rajon Rondo trade talks but how do they get him? Do the Celtics want Jason Terry back? (No) Are they interested in paying Trevor Ariza $8m for 3 more years? (No) That 1st round pick from the Pelicans might look interesting if they falter but beyond that, I don't see that the Rockets have anything to barter. This team is Harden and whoever.
In the end the Rockets are just too one-note to be terribly effective and while they're scrappy defensively, I don't see them as a top 10 defense. I think the Rockets are amongst a pack of 5 or 6 teams fighting for the last few playoff spots in the West. I don't think this team has improved from last year so I just don't see how they match their 5th place finish last year.
Thursday, October 2, 2014
NFL Power Rankings (Week 4)
AFC
*Broncos
*Bengals
$Chargers
*Colts
*Dolphins
$Ravens
Pats
Texans
Bills
Chiefs
Browns
Steelers
NYJ
Titans
Jags
Raiders
The Broncos don’t look quite as dynamic offensively as I would’ve expected but the D looks better than last year so I anticipate the Broncos will win games and be at the top of the AFC all year long.
*Broncos
*Bengals
$Chargers
*Colts
*Dolphins
$Ravens
Pats
Texans
Bills
Chiefs
Browns
Steelers
NYJ
Titans
Jags
Raiders
The Broncos don’t look quite as dynamic offensively as I would’ve expected but the D looks better than last year so I anticipate the Broncos will win games and be at the top of the AFC all year long.
The Bengals are good, man. Offense is clicking, the D looks fierce and
they’re deep so injuries shouldn’t be as much of a concern as for most
teams.
The Chargers are good, too. Phillip Rivers is killing it right now, D is
solid, they’re gonna outscore most everyone they play this year.
I’m not in love with the Colts but
Andrew Luck is really good, he should be enough to elevate the rest of the team
to win the division.
The Dolphins are a puzzle: dominant
against the Pats (who kinda suck) and the Raiders (who are flat fuckin’ awful)
but failed to show up against the Bills (so-so squad) and the Chiefs (bad
loss). I’m not sure what to think but I
think I think they could be good and if the AFC East is as sorry as it could be
then the Dolphins could emerge.
Not sure about the Ravens
either. But they’ve got the veteran
thing going for them and in a mediocre conference, they could be pretty
good.
I’m dropping the Pats and Texans as playoff teams. The Texans could emerge, their D is for real but the QB is not inspiring and the running game doesn’t look as good as it usually is; they could pull it together in a soft division but unless the offense gets going I can imagine they’d win a playoff game. The Pats look crappy, man, just straight awful. Their years of Tom Brady and a bunch of dudes I never heard of, looks like it could be coming to a close; the offensive line seems to be the culprit, if Brady is running for his life that diminishes his effectiveness considerably; they should stay competitive in their division but I feel like the Dolphins and Bills may be ready to move.
I’m dropping the Pats and Texans as playoff teams. The Texans could emerge, their D is for real but the QB is not inspiring and the running game doesn’t look as good as it usually is; they could pull it together in a soft division but unless the offense gets going I can imagine they’d win a playoff game. The Pats look crappy, man, just straight awful. Their years of Tom Brady and a bunch of dudes I never heard of, looks like it could be coming to a close; the offensive line seems to be the culprit, if Brady is running for his life that diminishes his effectiveness considerably; they should stay competitive in their division but I feel like the Dolphins and Bills may be ready to move.
NFC
*Seahawks
$Cards
*Eagles
*Lions
*Falcons
$Packers
Niners
Cowboys
Bears
Vikings
NYG
Rams
Saints
Panthers
Redskins
Bucs
The Seahawks have already dropped a
game on the road to the Chargers; not a bad loss. And they didn’t exactly blow out the Broncos
at home. But I’m sticking with the
Seahawks as the class of the conference.
The Cards are the last undefeated
team in the NFC and I think those are good looking wins. Clearly they have a strong defense (run and
pass) and that will keep them relevant all year long; offense is okay, could
struggle.
The Eagles are a puzzle so far:
they’re about where I thought they’d be but they don’t look like their offense
is rolling just yet. Either they get
better from here and challenge the Seahawks or they falter and flail their way
down the standings. I’m keeping them
high for now for getting 3 W’s without playing their best.
The Lions are starting to look like
the team I thought they should’ve been for the last few years. If the Bears keep struggling and the Packers
fail to get their game together, the Lions could dominate this division. I think the Packers improve but I’m not sold
on the Bears (and the Vikings are a mystery right now). I think the Lions make the playoffs.
The Packers, like the Niners, are up
and down too. Can’t front on losing in
Seattle and an L in Detroit isn’t exactly an embarrassment; but I’m not blown
away by W’s over the Bears and Jets. I
think the Packers can get better but I’m not sure they have the depth of years
past, so while I think they will make the playoffs I wouldn’t be surprised if
it all fell apart.
The Falcons aren’t as dominant as I
thought they’d be this year but they do have two good division W’s already, so
I think they’ll sustain. Their passing
offense should be among the best in the league but the running game is
underwhelming and I’m not bowled over by their D. I think they’re better than their division so
I think they make the playoffs and they could get a roll on as the season wears
on.
I'm dropping the Saints and the Bears as playoff teams simply because neither has gotten it together yet. The Saints don’t even look capable of getting it together, the D is a mess and the offense has dropped off significantly over its usual dominance. The Bears look sloppy, like they could be good if they pull it together but also that they could let it all slip away too; with the Lions looking better, I think its gonna be an uphill climb for the Bears.
I'm dropping the Saints and the Bears as playoff teams simply because neither has gotten it together yet. The Saints don’t even look capable of getting it together, the D is a mess and the offense has dropped off significantly over its usual dominance. The Bears look sloppy, like they could be good if they pull it together but also that they could let it all slip away too; with the Lions looking better, I think its gonna be an uphill climb for the Bears.
Monday, September 29, 2014
MLB Playoff Predictions
This was a FIFA and FIBA World Cup year so I paid little attention to baseball until the last coupla weeks. My Cleveland Indians fell short but stayed in contention right up to the final Friday, an overachieving season (Terry Francona is a GREAT manager, I'm just sayin') that far outlasted both of my Fantasy teams. But just because I know nothing about this year won't keep me from predicting the future.
A's over Royals
Tigers over Orioles in 7. Angels over A's in 6.
Tigers over Angels in 7.
Pirates over Giants
Dodgers over Cards in 6. Nats over Pirates in 5.
Nats over Dodgers in 7.
Nats over Tigers in 6
A's over Royals
Tigers over Orioles in 7. Angels over A's in 6.
Tigers over Angels in 7.
Pirates over Giants
Dodgers over Cards in 6. Nats over Pirates in 5.
Nats over Dodgers in 7.
Nats over Tigers in 6
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Thoughts on a rumor
Rumor has it the T-Wolves will send Kevin Martin (3 yrs/$20m) to the Bulls for Mike Dunleavy (1 yr/$3.3m), Tony Snell (3 yrs/$4.5m rookie deal) and a 2nd round pick. I kinda like this deal for both teams though I'm surprised the Bulls want to take back that much salary.
The Wolves will basically be trotting out a brand new team next year: they just traded for Anthony Bennett (PF) and Thaddeus Young (SF/PF), Andrew Wiggins (SG/SF) and Zach Lavine (SG) are rookies, they brought in Mo Williams (PG), Gorgi Dieng (PF/C) is still an unknown commodity, they haven't figure out what to do with Shabazz Muhammad (SG) and factor in that Nikola Pekovic (C) was basically injured all last year, that's all shiny new players to watch next year. Bringing in Dunleavy and Snell would give them 10 dudes in entirely new roles for the T-Wolves this year. The climate in which they signed Kevin Martin has changed completely and now his salary outweighs his potential production; flipping him for Dunleavy (SG/SF) makes long term sense and doesn't really diminish the output; Tony Snell (PG) could be a nice PG off the bench; and everyone loves 2nd round picks nowadays. Dumping salary for players that can be useful is the ultimate win-win.
The Bulls have put together the best roster they've had in eons, adding Kevin Martin just gives them that much more scoring to round out the cold nights. A return to form from Derrick Rose, an avoidance of dropoff from Pau Gasol, any growth from Jimmy Butler, and disaster-free rookie years from Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott should make the Bulls tough to beat in the East (especially considering they finished 3rd last year none of what I just listed above). Martin is a good addition to the squad on the court, but I'm a little surprised they'd be willing to take back a 3-year deal, as that will limit their opportunities next summer and pretty well guarantee (a la the Pacers) that 2014-15's team will be cemented for 2015-16 as well. Going forward they have all of those guys (except Butler) already signed for 2015-16 too (in addition to Taj Gibson and Kirk Hinrich). Tough call for the Bulls: Martin is a nice fit on the court, but contract-wise I might rather have Dunleavy, Snell and options for next summer. I'd like to think the thinking is: 'let's win now, worry about the money some other time' and I applaud that. But sitting on my couch without team allegiances, I wonder if the future wouldn't look brighter without Kevin Martin (as the T-Wolves are hoping).
The Wolves will basically be trotting out a brand new team next year: they just traded for Anthony Bennett (PF) and Thaddeus Young (SF/PF), Andrew Wiggins (SG/SF) and Zach Lavine (SG) are rookies, they brought in Mo Williams (PG), Gorgi Dieng (PF/C) is still an unknown commodity, they haven't figure out what to do with Shabazz Muhammad (SG) and factor in that Nikola Pekovic (C) was basically injured all last year, that's all shiny new players to watch next year. Bringing in Dunleavy and Snell would give them 10 dudes in entirely new roles for the T-Wolves this year. The climate in which they signed Kevin Martin has changed completely and now his salary outweighs his potential production; flipping him for Dunleavy (SG/SF) makes long term sense and doesn't really diminish the output; Tony Snell (PG) could be a nice PG off the bench; and everyone loves 2nd round picks nowadays. Dumping salary for players that can be useful is the ultimate win-win.
The Bulls have put together the best roster they've had in eons, adding Kevin Martin just gives them that much more scoring to round out the cold nights. A return to form from Derrick Rose, an avoidance of dropoff from Pau Gasol, any growth from Jimmy Butler, and disaster-free rookie years from Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott should make the Bulls tough to beat in the East (especially considering they finished 3rd last year none of what I just listed above). Martin is a good addition to the squad on the court, but I'm a little surprised they'd be willing to take back a 3-year deal, as that will limit their opportunities next summer and pretty well guarantee (a la the Pacers) that 2014-15's team will be cemented for 2015-16 as well. Going forward they have all of those guys (except Butler) already signed for 2015-16 too (in addition to Taj Gibson and Kirk Hinrich). Tough call for the Bulls: Martin is a nice fit on the court, but contract-wise I might rather have Dunleavy, Snell and options for next summer. I'd like to think the thinking is: 'let's win now, worry about the money some other time' and I applaud that. But sitting on my couch without team allegiances, I wonder if the future wouldn't look brighter without Kevin Martin (as the T-Wolves are hoping).
Eric Bledsoe saga (conclusion?)
Apparently the Suns are close to announcing that they've signed Bledsoe to 5 yrs/$70m. Higher than I thought they'd go, but I think they did the right thing in signing him. As I detailed earlier, it took a 3rd party to step in and make the deal possible and the Minnesota Timberwolves stepped up last week to be that third party (though I'm not sure why); the T-Wolves would have been unable to sign him straight out, they would've had to make a trade offer to the Suns, but as I detailed earlier the Suns weren't going to fall for that. The Suns wanted Eric Bledsoe not a pile of trade bait, they just wanted him as cheaply as they could get him. Apparently, $14m is the cheapest.
I understand the trepidation, Bledsoe's time in the NBA has been brief and injury-plagued. But I am convinced that he will be the breakout star of 2014-15 and the Suns were right to lock him up. The only reason this didn't happen sooner was the lack of 3rd party interest, it only took a hint of that to get the Suns and Bledsoe to trade ink. Not a lot of FA's moves out there left to make, getting closer to pre-season.
I understand the trepidation, Bledsoe's time in the NBA has been brief and injury-plagued. But I am convinced that he will be the breakout star of 2014-15 and the Suns were right to lock him up. The only reason this didn't happen sooner was the lack of 3rd party interest, it only took a hint of that to get the Suns and Bledsoe to trade ink. Not a lot of FA's moves out there left to make, getting closer to pre-season.
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