For the last coupla years the Magic have been one of my favorite teams to watch (I'm a sucker for youth movements). This summer saw a re-shaping of the entire roster, shipping out much of the promising youth in favor of veterans. As a watcher I've lost interest but has the team improved?
They let go of Brandon Jennings (Knicks), Joe Harris (Nets), Dewayne Dedmon (Spurs), Jason Smith (Wizards), Andrew Nicholson (Wizards), Ersan Ilyasova (Thunder), Victor Oladipo (Thunder), Shabazz Napier (Blazers), and Devyn Marble (Clippers). Jennings was never meant to last in Orlando, Harris is a minimal commodity, Dedmon is nice but not irreplaceable, Smith is....who is he?, I like Nicholson and thought he could've helped this team for the long term, Ilyasova was always just a chess piece for the Magic, Oladipo isn't the bust-out star the Magic were hoping for but he was certainly good enough to earn another contract from Orlando, Napier is probably my least favorite in the entire league, Marble is a bottom of the roster guy. Okay, maybe that's not so bad.
They made all the deletions to make room for DJ Augustin (4yrs/$29m), Jeff Green (1yr/$15m), Bismack Biyombo (4yrs/$72m), Serge Ibaka (free agent next summer), CJ Wilcox, Stephen Zimmerman (41st pick) and they re-signed Evan Fournier (5yrs/$85m). Augustin is a reliable backup PG, Green is an occasionally explosive scorer, Biyombo is an athletic rebounder down low, Ibaka has one year to provide wing scoring and good D, Wilcox will take Napier's spot at the end of the bench, Zimmerman is a nice 2nd round pickup, and giving Fournier a ton of money was the smartest thing they've done in a while.
Considering how little they received for Mo Harkless, Tobias Harris, Kyle O'Quinn, Channing Frye and Victor Oladipo, we shouldn't be surprised that the Magic have moved two of their most recent draft picks: #11 (Damontis Sabonis) to the Thunder and #47 (Jake Layman) to the Blazers. The youth movement is officially over, the sad retread of aging vets is here. Are they better? Ehh, maybe. But they're certainly not any more interesting, nor do they appear secure for the future. How do these pieces fit together? Does Hezonja play PG? Does Ibaka play PF? Do Vucevic and Biyombo play together?
Starting five: PG Payton, SG Fournier, SF Gordon, PF Ibaka, C Vucevic with Hezonja, Augustin, Wilcox, Green, Biyombo, and Zimmerman off the bench. Not a bad collection of talent and they do have Coach Vogel to put it all together. But everything about their moves over the last coupla years indicates a team that doesn't know what it wants to do. They're tired of building for the future but they don't have enough right now to be players. I don't see them getting to the 8th spot in the East and given their penchant for giving up on previous moves, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ibaka, Vucevic and/or Green get moved at the trade deadline. If that is the case, hopefully it's because they have a reason to do so.
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
Washington Wizards (so far)
The Wizards made minimal moves last summer and followed that with a disappointing campaign where they failed to make the playoffs. This summer was another fairly quiet one, will that be good enough to get back into the top eight in the East?
The first step of this off-season was bringing back Bradley Beal (5yrs/$120m). They went on to add Ian Mahinmi (4yrs/$24m), Jason Smith (3yrs/$16m), Andrew Nicholson (4yrs/$26m), Trey Burke (for a 2nd rd pick), all veterans since they had no draft picks this year. They let go of Ramon Sessions (Hornets), Garrett Temple (Kings), Nene Hilario (Rockets) and Jared Dudley (Suns).
It doesn't feel like they lost much: Sessions is a nice backup PG, Dudley is a nice 3-point shooter, Temple is...I don't know Temple and Nene's best years were certainly behind him. Nothing that seems irreplaceable. Burke will take up the 2nd string PG minutes (not a bad fit, he's still young and hungry enough to be worthy of this kind of opportunity), Mahinmi replaces Nene (not as good as Nene at his peak, but played with some fire in the playoffs last year, seems like a nice veteran pickup down low), while Smith and Nicholson add size and rebounding at reasonable prices. The new isn't overwhelming but the old wasn't either. But then there was a late summer wild card: Tomas Satoransky, an intriguing Euro-vet most recently of Barcelona. He could be Ichiro, could Hideki Irabu, we just don't know. But its a great move for the Wizards, low risk, high reward, though it may take a while for him to find his groove in the NBA.
Starting five: PG Wall, SG Beal, SF Porter, PF Markieff, C Gortat with Burke, Satoransky, Oubre, Nicholson, Ochefu, Smith off the bench. Hard to tell if they're better. In 2013-14 and 2014-15, the Wizards made the 2nd round of the playoffs but deep down we all know they overachieved; then last year they failed to make the playoffs, but we all know they were better than that. So how good are they? I have no idea. My guess is Wall, Beal and Porter take a step forward allowing Oubre and Satoransky to make worthwhile contributions. If Markieff, Gortat, Nicholson and Mahinmi just do what they need to do, I think the Wizards could be 4th or 5th in the East. Realistically they're probably gonna struggle to get back to the post-season but I think they make it.
The first step of this off-season was bringing back Bradley Beal (5yrs/$120m). They went on to add Ian Mahinmi (4yrs/$24m), Jason Smith (3yrs/$16m), Andrew Nicholson (4yrs/$26m), Trey Burke (for a 2nd rd pick), all veterans since they had no draft picks this year. They let go of Ramon Sessions (Hornets), Garrett Temple (Kings), Nene Hilario (Rockets) and Jared Dudley (Suns).
It doesn't feel like they lost much: Sessions is a nice backup PG, Dudley is a nice 3-point shooter, Temple is...I don't know Temple and Nene's best years were certainly behind him. Nothing that seems irreplaceable. Burke will take up the 2nd string PG minutes (not a bad fit, he's still young and hungry enough to be worthy of this kind of opportunity), Mahinmi replaces Nene (not as good as Nene at his peak, but played with some fire in the playoffs last year, seems like a nice veteran pickup down low), while Smith and Nicholson add size and rebounding at reasonable prices. The new isn't overwhelming but the old wasn't either. But then there was a late summer wild card: Tomas Satoransky, an intriguing Euro-vet most recently of Barcelona. He could be Ichiro, could Hideki Irabu, we just don't know. But its a great move for the Wizards, low risk, high reward, though it may take a while for him to find his groove in the NBA.
Starting five: PG Wall, SG Beal, SF Porter, PF Markieff, C Gortat with Burke, Satoransky, Oubre, Nicholson, Ochefu, Smith off the bench. Hard to tell if they're better. In 2013-14 and 2014-15, the Wizards made the 2nd round of the playoffs but deep down we all know they overachieved; then last year they failed to make the playoffs, but we all know they were better than that. So how good are they? I have no idea. My guess is Wall, Beal and Porter take a step forward allowing Oubre and Satoransky to make worthwhile contributions. If Markieff, Gortat, Nicholson and Mahinmi just do what they need to do, I think the Wizards could be 4th or 5th in the East. Realistically they're probably gonna struggle to get back to the post-season but I think they make it.
Monday, August 8, 2016
Chicago Bulls (so far)
The Bulls suited up 16 players throughout the 2015-16 season: Jimmy Butler, Gasol (GONE), Rose (GONE), Taj Gibson, Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic, Tony Snell, Moore (GONE), Brooks (GONE), Bobby Portis, Dunleavy (GONE), Noah (GONE), Hinrich (GONE), Holiday (GONE), Cristiano Felicio, Bairstow (GONE). I haven't seen a purge like this since Purge 3!
Lost: Pau Gasol (Spurs), Derrick Rose (Knicks), Joakim Noah (Knicks), Cameron Bairstow (Pistons), Mike Dunleavy (Cavs), Aaron Brooks (Pacers), E'Twaun Moore (Pelicans), Justin Holiday (Knicks)
Signed Dwyane Wade (2yrs/$47m), Rajon Rondo (2yrs/$28m) and Isiah Canaan (2yrs/$2.2m). Traded for Robin Lopez, Jerian Grant. And they drafted Denzel Valentine (#14), Paul Zipser (#48).
For the last few years I've been a Bulls apologist. They had so much talent, such depth and yet they underachieved because none of the pieces fit together. Moving on from Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah signaled a shift away from aging veterans who were too expensive for their production...and then they signed Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade...wtf? Jimmy Butler must wake up screaming every night. Coach Hoiberg, too, must be wondering what he's gotten himself into. And as much as I've been an apologist for them recently, I'm going hard in the opposite direction now: I think the Bulls will be absolutely awful next year! Awful. I don't see how any of this fits together.
Starting five....I dunno...I guess: PG Rondo, SG Wade, SF Butler, PF Mirotic, C Lopez with Snell, Grant, Valentine, Canaan, McDermott, Portis, Felicio and Gibson off the bench. I could live with either Rondo or Wade but the two of them together is a mystery: 1) they'll suck together and 2) they're just interrupting the youth movement. You're training the youngsters in entirely the wrong way and you're not going to win in the meantime. Grease fire, just nothing but terrible. The only hope is Rondo and Wade both get hurt and sit out for long stretches of time. The Bulls would still be sub-standard but at least they'd be moving in some direction.
Signed Dwyane Wade (2yrs/$47m), Rajon Rondo (2yrs/$28m) and Isiah Canaan (2yrs/$2.2m). Traded for Robin Lopez, Jerian Grant. And they drafted Denzel Valentine (#14), Paul Zipser (#48).
For the last few years I've been a Bulls apologist. They had so much talent, such depth and yet they underachieved because none of the pieces fit together. Moving on from Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah signaled a shift away from aging veterans who were too expensive for their production...and then they signed Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade...wtf? Jimmy Butler must wake up screaming every night. Coach Hoiberg, too, must be wondering what he's gotten himself into. And as much as I've been an apologist for them recently, I'm going hard in the opposite direction now: I think the Bulls will be absolutely awful next year! Awful. I don't see how any of this fits together.
Starting five....I dunno...I guess: PG Rondo, SG Wade, SF Butler, PF Mirotic, C Lopez with Snell, Grant, Valentine, Canaan, McDermott, Portis, Felicio and Gibson off the bench. I could live with either Rondo or Wade but the two of them together is a mystery: 1) they'll suck together and 2) they're just interrupting the youth movement. You're training the youngsters in entirely the wrong way and you're not going to win in the meantime. Grease fire, just nothing but terrible. The only hope is Rondo and Wade both get hurt and sit out for long stretches of time. The Bulls would still be sub-standard but at least they'd be moving in some direction.
Detroit Pistons (so far)
The Pistons worked their way into the playoffs last year, earning the honor to be rolled by the Cavs on their way to the trophy. Hey, every step is a step up, right?
The summer was built around re-signing their big man Andre Drummond (5yrs/$130m) and reshaping the supporting cast around him. They brought in Ish Smith (3yrs/$18m) for backup PG, Jon Leuer (4yrs/$42m) for some Zeller-ish-ness off the bench, Ray McCallum (not sure the terms) for some garbage time minutes and Boban Marjanovic (3yrs/$21m) to spell Drummond. They also drafted Henry Ellenson (#18), Michael Gbinje (#49) and Daniel Hamilton (#56), but I would expect those three to take merely baby steps in getting into the rotation. Personally I like Ish Smith and he strikes me as the poor man's Reggie Jax, making him a good selection for his backup. Leuer and Ellenson should bring good energy off the bench, McCallum and Gbinje should provide decent second string scoring and Boban will be a fan favorite right away. No big moves in there but no bad ones, I'd say.
They moved on from Jodie Meeks (Magic), Anthony Tolliver (Kings) and swapped Spencer Dinwiddie for Cameron Bairstow, whom they immediately cut (and went back to Australia, if I'm not mistaken). None of those moves would could possible be considered devastating but Tolliver did play meaningful minutes last season.
The starting five looks pretty much the same as last year: PG Jackson, SG Caldwell-Pope, SF Harris, PF Morris, C Drummond with Smith, Gbinje, McCallum, Bullock, Johnson, Ellenson, Baynes and Boban off the bench. Last year saw a nice build in the Stan Van project, next year looks to improve a little more. Not a slam dunk playoff team but I expect them to be there by the end of the year and to be a tough out in the post-season.
The summer was built around re-signing their big man Andre Drummond (5yrs/$130m) and reshaping the supporting cast around him. They brought in Ish Smith (3yrs/$18m) for backup PG, Jon Leuer (4yrs/$42m) for some Zeller-ish-ness off the bench, Ray McCallum (not sure the terms) for some garbage time minutes and Boban Marjanovic (3yrs/$21m) to spell Drummond. They also drafted Henry Ellenson (#18), Michael Gbinje (#49) and Daniel Hamilton (#56), but I would expect those three to take merely baby steps in getting into the rotation. Personally I like Ish Smith and he strikes me as the poor man's Reggie Jax, making him a good selection for his backup. Leuer and Ellenson should bring good energy off the bench, McCallum and Gbinje should provide decent second string scoring and Boban will be a fan favorite right away. No big moves in there but no bad ones, I'd say.
They moved on from Jodie Meeks (Magic), Anthony Tolliver (Kings) and swapped Spencer Dinwiddie for Cameron Bairstow, whom they immediately cut (and went back to Australia, if I'm not mistaken). None of those moves would could possible be considered devastating but Tolliver did play meaningful minutes last season.
The starting five looks pretty much the same as last year: PG Jackson, SG Caldwell-Pope, SF Harris, PF Morris, C Drummond with Smith, Gbinje, McCallum, Bullock, Johnson, Ellenson, Baynes and Boban off the bench. Last year saw a nice build in the Stan Van project, next year looks to improve a little more. Not a slam dunk playoff team but I expect them to be there by the end of the year and to be a tough out in the post-season.
Friday, August 5, 2016
Westbrook Re-signs with OKC
I knew there would be (at least) one more Westbrook-related story coming out of OKC this summer. Either he would be traded or he would sign an extension, one or the other had to happen. Westbrook answered the OKC prayers and signed a 3yr/$85m extension that comes with a raise for this coming year and a player option in the 3rd year. He could still be traded but I think the Thunder would rather add to their newly re-signed PG rather than look to the post-Westbrook future.
There are still a handful of NBA players rumored to be on the trade block, can any be brought to OKC? Greg Monroe (Bucks) is not an upgrade over Kanter, Rudy Gay (Kings) is not a good fit salary-wise, Eric Bledsoe (Suns) is a bit redundant with Westbrook, and Jahlil Okafor (Sixers) doesn't add enough to the Thunder offense (or much at all to the defense).
However, Blake Griffin (Clippers) would be intriguing alongside Westbrook and has a salary very close to Kanter's. Will that happen? It could. Griffin is set to make $20.1m this year with an early termination option (of $24.2m) in the following year. With salaries skyrocketing this summer, it is likely that Griffin will opt out next summer in hopes of getting a raise whether he is still with the Clippers or in a new city. I'm not sure but I suspect the Thunder would be more than happy to give Griffin a raise next summer (whereas the Clippers might not able to considering Chris Paul also has an ETO next summer). The Thunder have Enes Kanter at $17.1m and locked in for two more years, which could be attractive to the Clippers. Kanter is not as good as Griffin in general but Kanter is an excellent scorer around the rim and I think would fit between Chris Paul and Deandre Jordan just fine. And though his contract seemed exorbitant last summer, it'll look like a bargain next summer.
A straight up Griffin for Kanter deal doesn't seem so sexy but tacking on Ilyasova or Oladipo becomes cost prohibitive. And frankly offensively the Clippers would be fine with Kanter, he would save them a coupla bucks and leave them with a $3m trade exception that might come in handy in February. Like I said, it doesn't seem so sexy but I think its actually a pretty good deal for both teams. And I think it could happen. We'll see in the next 6 weeks or so.
Indiana Pacers (so far)
The Pacers went the makeover route this summer. GM Larry Bird clearly just didn't feel like Coach Vogel was worth a raise, so he let him walk and replaced him with Nate MacMillan, which looks like a step down to my eye. Also they shipped out PG George Hill in favor of PG Jeff Teague (not a step down but definitely a step sidewise), let Ian Mahinmi (Wizards) and Jordan Hill (Wolves) go and don't seem likely to retain Chase Budinger or Ty Lawson. A new coach, a new PG and a shakeup in the supporting cast, not insignificant moves.
In addition to adding Teague, they also brought in Thaddeus Young (in exchange for the #20 pick), Al Jefferson (3yrs/$30m), Aaron Brooks (1yr/$2,5m) and drafted Georges Niang (#50) (though I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't make the team this fall). Finally, they retained Solomon Hill (4yrs/$52m).
This lineup looks pretty strange to me. They feature a ton of combo guards (Teague, Ellis, Stuckey, Brooks) making it difficult to put together a starting five. Do they play Teague and Monta Ellis together? They have to, don't they? Okay, the starting five looks like: PG Teague, SG Ellis, SF George, PF Young, C Turner with Stuckey, Brooks, Miles, Robinson, Evans, Christmas, Allen and Jefferson off the bench. Good depth but a weird collection of players.
Seems to me the upside the Pacers are hoping for is the development of Myles Turner: if he becomes the Lamarcus Aldridge clone he can be, then this lineup should be pretty good, not dissimilar to what the Pelicans have been trying (and failed) to surround Anthony Davis with over the last few years. If Turner is a top flight finisher then Paul George, Jeff Teague and Monta Ellis become arguably the best supporting cast in the league. But...wait...does that make sense? Monta Ellis doesn't seem like a second banana but ideally he'd be 3rd or 4th on this team. That feels like a disaster waiting to happen.
And what does Coach MacMillan add to all of this? Is he a developer? A tactician? I always thought of him as an ego-soother and that might be just what this team needs. Strange to say but MacMillan might be a better fit for this roster than Vogel (who I think is one of the finest coaches in the league). If this team gels they can be really good; if not, they could be a catastrophe. (Feels like Ellis and/or Teague could be trade bait by February)
In addition to adding Teague, they also brought in Thaddeus Young (in exchange for the #20 pick), Al Jefferson (3yrs/$30m), Aaron Brooks (1yr/$2,5m) and drafted Georges Niang (#50) (though I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't make the team this fall). Finally, they retained Solomon Hill (4yrs/$52m).
This lineup looks pretty strange to me. They feature a ton of combo guards (Teague, Ellis, Stuckey, Brooks) making it difficult to put together a starting five. Do they play Teague and Monta Ellis together? They have to, don't they? Okay, the starting five looks like: PG Teague, SG Ellis, SF George, PF Young, C Turner with Stuckey, Brooks, Miles, Robinson, Evans, Christmas, Allen and Jefferson off the bench. Good depth but a weird collection of players.
Seems to me the upside the Pacers are hoping for is the development of Myles Turner: if he becomes the Lamarcus Aldridge clone he can be, then this lineup should be pretty good, not dissimilar to what the Pelicans have been trying (and failed) to surround Anthony Davis with over the last few years. If Turner is a top flight finisher then Paul George, Jeff Teague and Monta Ellis become arguably the best supporting cast in the league. But...wait...does that make sense? Monta Ellis doesn't seem like a second banana but ideally he'd be 3rd or 4th on this team. That feels like a disaster waiting to happen.
And what does Coach MacMillan add to all of this? Is he a developer? A tactician? I always thought of him as an ego-soother and that might be just what this team needs. Strange to say but MacMillan might be a better fit for this roster than Vogel (who I think is one of the finest coaches in the league). If this team gels they can be really good; if not, they could be a catastrophe. (Feels like Ellis and/or Teague could be trade bait by February)
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
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