East
Heat over Sixers in 6
Oh, man, the Sixers just suck. Joel Embiid coming in with a (sprained?) thumb ligament and broken orbital bone was a shell of himself, though he still acquitted himself well. James Harden had a coupla good games but more than anything just looked old (and fat) and left Sixer fans petrified that a $150 million-ish deal with him is probably a foregone conclusion (Process RIP). Tyrese Maxey balled out which at least gives the fans something hope for and Tobias Harris did his best but Danny Green tore his ACL in Game Six and is likely out for next season. Frankly the fact that they won two games is kind of amazing in retrospect. They have already announced that Coach Rivers will be back next season (good news or bad?) but figuring out what to do with Harden is going to vex this team for the rest of the summer (and likely beyond) and I just don't see how this squad comes back better next year.
Celtics over Bucks in 7
This was a weird series, man. Bucks won Game One in Boston, stealing home court away from the Celics. But the Celtics won Game Four in Milwaukee, stealing home court back. But then the Bucks won Game Five in Boston, then gave away Game Six in Milwaukee. In Game Seven, the Bucks came out strong in the 1st quarter but then just never got that aggressiveness back and this game slowly became a rout by the end with the 4th quarter never getting competitive in the least. The Celtics kinda sucked in 1 and 5, the Bucks kinda sucked in 6 and 7. I still think with Khris Middleton, the Bucks would've won (probably in 6) and they actually did pretty well to get to Game Seven. But considering that they had two shots to finish the series and gacked them both is troubling. I like Jrue Holiday's defense but offensively he has this weird knack of getting to the rim and then just not finishing (it's like he's money 90% of the play but then never delivers that last 10%). Giannis was mostly great but didn't get it done in the last two games and I don't really understand why; the Celtics couldn't really stop him but he let up on the attack too often. I was more impressed with Wesley Matthews on D than I had expected to be (damn, I thought that dude was washed a while ago). But Grayson Allen and George Hill were non-factors and Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton had moments but also kinda disappeared in the big moments. I still feel like with Middleton the Bucks would be good enough to get out of the East, so while this disappointing, it isn't catastrophic.
West
Mavs over Suns in 7
The series was almost perfectly as I predicted for six games: the home team won each game and the Mavs in particular looked kinda dominant in their wins. But I thought Game Seven would be tight and the home team Suns would pull it out but...uh....nope...they did not. In fact, they played easily their worst game of the year--worst game in many years for most of these guys!--and Game Seven was long over by halftime (which is basically the way the Mavs had to win, right?). Oh, dude....Chis Paul was terrible, Devin Booker was terrible, Deandre Ayton was terrible, Mikal Brides was terrible, and Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, Landry Shamet and Cam Payne contributed not very much. The Suns couldn't buy a basket, couldn't get a stop and early in the 2nd quarter when they desperately needed a run, they had nothing. Wow, a devastating blowout for the Suns. (Okay, I'll be that guy) I never believed in Chris Paul as a playoff performer and this shows exactly why: in series after series against better and better opponents, Paul can be minimized and pushed aside. Last year's trip to the Finals was waaaaaaay further than I ever thought he could go and at no point this year did I think the Suns would be repeating out of the West (though they obviously had a great regular season). Didn't think it would go down like this, but it was gonna go down some time. There's already rumbling that Ayton is not coming back and I don't see how that makes this team better. They'll still have a solid core (and will return Dario Saric) but I don't see them being better next year, so the Suns have probably already set.
Warriors over Grizzlies in 6
This, too, went the way I thought it would. The Grizzlies are fun to watch, up and coming, a good collection of talent, all that and all that, but they're young, man, and green squads never go deep in the NBA. The fact they've now had a legit playoff run (even scored themselves a 39-point thrashing of the vaunted Warriors) puts them in the top tier in the West (especially considering that the Suns and the Jazz don't seem likely to be better next year). The Grizzlies also have a weird secret weapon: somehow they're better without Ja Morant (don't ask me, man, I don't get it either). They're probably gonna lose Tyus Jones to free agency but they have two 1st round picks (possibly three, if the Lakers/Pelican pick ping pongs their way) and they have drafted well over the years, so I would expect them to fill out their bench on the cheap (does this mean RFA Jarret Culver moves on, too?). The Grizzlies were a legit #2 in the West and I expect them to be back in the top 4 next season, too.
Semifinals
(1) Heat - (2) Celtics
Yeah, I listen to the Celtics guys, too, and I understand their enthusiasm; but I can't help but point out how dismissive they've been of the Heat. The Heat's problem is their spotty offense: when they knock down shots, they win games and when they don't knock down shots, they lose. Since they have the home court advantage, I'm going with the Heat to find their offensive mojo enough to win this series. I'm not that worried about Kyle Lowry potentially being unavailable because, well, honestly I hadn't noticed Lowry being there all year long anyway; so anything they get from Lowry is a bonus and not having him is not really a minus. The Celtics, on the other hand, will likely be without Robert Williams and while in the grand scheme of things Lowry is a Hall of Famer and Williams is the guy who fell asleep on draft night, the Celtics will miss Williams more than the Heat will miss Lowry: the mid-season resurrection of the Celtics is because they finally figured out how to use Williams as that holy grail rim protector which gave DPOY (*) Marcus Smart the room to roam and that's the real secret to the Celtic success this year. Without him, the Celtics are gonna be hard pressed to keep Bam Adebayo from getting to the rim and there you have it, I think the Heat outscore the Celtics in four of the next seven games (1,2,5,7 to be precise). I got the Heat in 7.
(3) Warriors - (4) Mavs
So are the Mavs a fluke or are they really supposed to be here? Are the Warriors really good enough to win it all again or has this season been a mirage? I have no idea about either of those questions and that's why this series is so fun! I thought the Warriors would have a bounce back year, so I'm not shocked that they're here; but, in the last two months or so they haven't really found themselves yet. Draymond Green just does not shoot the ball at all any more, Klay Thompson has good games and terrible games, Andrew Wiggins made the All-Star team but hasn't been a consistent contributor for a while now and Steph Curry has been good but not great. This team is kinda carried for the most part by Jordan Poole (and their best defender was Gary Payton II, who is out with a broken elbow). And their playoff draw so far has been the tough but outmanned Nuggets and the tough but youthful Grizzlies, so it doesn't feel like they've worked as hard to get to this point as the Mavs. The Mavs are a one-man team but when Luka Doncic is on, he's as good as anyone on planet Earth at the game of basketball and the Warriors have no one to guard him. Honestly, I'd ignore Luka, let him get him 50 every night and worry about shutting down everyone else. The Warriors best bet is to rely on their scoring, a mercurial way to live, but since they can't stop Luka anyway, they need to make sure they outscore the rest of the Mavs roster, which--at their best--the Warriors should be able to do with ease. Long story short: the best version of the Warriors is better than the Mavs but the average Mavs are better than the average Warriors, so the Warriors need to be their best to win this series and I think they'll get close enough to get it done. Warriors in 7.
(*) I did not vote for Marcus Smart. Good perimeter defender, tough guy, good to have on your team but not in my top five for DPOY this season. Yes, I suck at evaluating defense, but since I'm not convinced that anyone is good at evaluating defense (outside of David Thorpe and perhaps a handful of coaches no one has ever heard of), I'll stand by my judgement. Oh, I did have Robert Williams in my top five....but not Marcus Smart.
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