East
Heat over Hawks in 5
I bought the Hawks playoff run last year, you know? I finally saw the possibilities of Trae Young and I thought that roster was perfectly constructed for them to rattle off regular season W's without much effort and finish top 4 in the East. Nope. Not at any point in the year were the Hawks particularly impressive. They picked it up in March, felt like they were playing their best ball going into the post-season. But, meh, none of that. The Hawks struggled in all five games, got lucky as hell in the one W they stole. They were outmatched in every way (though Deandre Hunter definitely had a bust out playoff) and the Gentleman's Sweep is frankly better than they deserved. Where do they go from here? I have no idea. Last year I overrated them, next season is the return to underrated, I presume.
Celtics over Nets in 4
The Nets were the Vegas favorite to represent the East in the Finals this year, as of October 2021. Dang, didn't even get a single playoff win! All the wheeling and dealing, all the gathering of star power, in the end it was pretty much just Kevin Durant with a supporting cast worse than the one he bought into 3 years ago. How weird, man. Kyrie has done nothing since leaving Cleveland and while he clearly still has great offensive capabilities, he don't seem like the money he used to seem like. And he can't carry a team by himself anymore--can't even co-carry one with KD! This team is a mess and in a really bad way and I feel bad for Durant, he's still kinda awesome but he has surrounded himself with idiots (and pour one out for Coach Nash: clearly dedicated to KD but all the rest of the nonsense he's had to put up with is the worst kind of nightmare). Will they be back next year? I don't think so. They are bloated and top heavy and could sink all the way to the better bottom of the East River (to say nothing of the conference). They will re-sign Kyrie and that contract will own this team for the foreseeable future. They can move on Ben Simmons, but does anyone want him any more? And if he wins his case against the Sixers, isn't that just paying him to not play? Who wants this guy? And does Simmons even want to play basketball? This is what Durant and Nash are tethered to from now on. That's gruesome.
Bucks over Bulls in 5
If I told you the Bucks would win in Five, you'd be like, 'yeah probably'. But the Gentleman's Sweep kinda entails the losing team winning either Game Three or Game Four at home. In this case the Bulls won Game Two in Milwaukee--and looked kinda cool doing it!--and for a second, everybody panicked. And then when Khris Middleton got hurt, everybody really panicked....for a second. Then Giannis dusted off the Bulls three straight, just like we knew would happen, and we on to the next round. The Bulls are one of those half-assed dangerous teams, they're a hand grenade with a broken pin: probably useless but could maybe make one really big boom. This team is crafty and savvy, at their best a really fun offense to watch, but they're strictly a regular season juggernaut that will cave to superior teams in series play. They'd be better with a healthy Lonzo Ball and whether they bring back Zach LaVine or replace him, they'll probably just be treading the same water as this season. They have the depth and talent to be pretty good but I don't see them getting any better than that.
Sixers over Raptors in 6
Sixers went up 3-0, then dropped two games and the fear was palpable. But Embiid was his brilliant self in Game Six and the Raptors just couldn't get their offense right and got rolled. The Raptors are gonna be the same fun, pretty good but probably unreliable squad. They could make changes but my guess is they pretty much are what they are and it'll depend on how much development Paskal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes have in them (which should last them a few years at least). Their average is better than most teams' average, so one must outplay them every time. That's who the Raptors are and that's who they'll be next year, too. More wins....fewer wins...I dunno.
West
Suns over Pelicans in 6
The Pelicans played hard, really made the Suns work and looked pretty damn good in their two wins. Now you see what a good team they could be if they just get Zion back to playing shape. They've got a top 10 pick, I think they're pretty will situated to add some good cheap talent and re-insert their star into this hard working crew and they'll be challenging for top 6 in the West next year.
Grizzlies over Wolves in 6
The Grizzlies were generally the better team but the Wolves built a lot of leads they couldn't hold, suggesting that the gap between the two teams is close (and that Wolves just kinda suck at "winning"). The Wolves probably don't have a lot of moves to make (does Ben Simmons make them better or worse?), they just need to mature and get better from within. Will that happen? I dunno, but the sooner it happens, the better (Pelicans are coming! And the Grizzlies are already past you!).
Warriors over Nuggets in 6
The Warriors were the better team from start to finish but the Nuggets (re: Nikola Jokic) played with a lot of toughness, a lot of creativity and they made the Warriors work for it every night (probably exactly what the Warriors needed to get themselves going). The Nuggets just need to get healthy. Its not hard to see how much much much better this squad is when Jamal Murray and Michael Porter are healthy. Are there upgrades to make? Maybe, but just getting what they got together would return them to the a top 6 in the West.
Mavs over Jazz in 6
Man, the Jazz kinda sucked in this series; not as bad as the Knicks sucked last year, but I'd put them up for the sucked-est performance in this year's post-season (yeah, worse than the Hawks and Nets). Luka Doncic was out for the first three games and Utah only managed 1 win...I mean...how do you expect to win if you're gonna get outplayed by the non-Luka version of the Mavs? The Jazz have descended deep into blow-it-up mode, I expect the Jazz to be wildly different next season (I think I still expect Donovan Mitchell but not necessarily). This tepid performance just shows that this team has run its course.
Quarterfinals
(1) Heat - (4) Sixers
With Embiid the Sixers can hang, maybe even steal a Game Seven in Miami; without Embiid the Heat are vastly better than the Sixers and should win in 7 (maybe 6). Embiid suffered a fractured orbital bone--which strikes me as very big deal, you gotta figure he's out at least two games (and you should probably expect one totally shit game when he comes back). I don't see how the Sixers overcome that. If James Harden becomes old timey Harden, I think that's good for 2-3 wins, but I don't think that alone wins the series for the Sixers. I think Tobias Harris is criminally underappreciated (*) and Tyrese Maxey is in full blossom right now, but Harden would have to be full-on badass Harden again--I think he still has that in him but not right now, not in this playoff, not against this Heat team. Even still, I don't think that wins. I think the Heat are the better team, the deeper team, the more reliable team on offense and defense, the better coach, the better "culture", and they have home court. The Heat are the better team with or without Embiid or Harden. Just too many "ifs" with this Sixer team, whereas the Heat are kinda rolling. I think the Heat are up 3-2 after Game Five, I think Game Six is tossup, I think the Heat crush in Game Seven. Heat in 7 (maybe 6).
(2) Celtics - (3) Bucks
The Bucks have been my pick to come out of the East pretty much all year long. But going into Boston without Khris Middleton could be too much to overcome. Giannis is absolutely at bestest, peakest Giannis yet and he's gonna be tough to beat, but I think the Celtics as a team are better than the Bucks (without Middleton). If/when Middleton comes back, I think the Celtics advantage diminishes but probably still holds. I think Jaysun Tatum is ready to blow up, the rest of the Celtics are a well-oiled machine, the Celtics are gonna be tough to beat, too. I got Celtics in 7.
(1) Suns - (4) Mavs
The Suns have mowed people all year long but looked as weak as they have in a while against the Pelicans in the 1st round (**) and Devin Booker is nursing a hammy. The Mavs are a weird team but I kinda like them and they go as Luka goes. You'd think the Suns could bowl over a one-man band but in the playoffs sometimes putting all the power in one guy works beautifully. The Suns are better but hot Luka on the right night is tough to stop. So I'm going full neutral: home team wins every game, Mavs look crazy dominant in their W's, while the Suns just look kinda okay in their wins. But in Game Seven with 2 minutes to go, who ya got: Chris Paul or Luka Doncic? I'll take CP and the Suns crew at home. Suns in 7.
(2) Grizzlies - (3) Warriors
Yeah, the Grizzlies are a fun team, great story, but they're green, baby. The Warriors are just better and when they get their offense cranked up, the Grizzlies won't be able to hang. No way the Grizzlies win four of the next seven games (inconceivable!). Taking two off the Warriors will be impressive enough. Quick prediction: I think we see a lot of Jonathon Kuminga in this series (as opposed to the Denver series, where he was never gonna get even mop up minutes). I'll say Warriors up 3-1 returning to Memphis for Game Five (Grizzlies W). Warriors in 6.
(*) Why do we rag so hard on Tobias Harris? He's the only one that actually shows up and plays games any more! Maybe his overall effect on the court would be improved if he didn't spend his entire career surrounded by jughead divas!
(**) Or perhaps it's the opposite: perhaps the Pelicans are really much better than we thought they were and it took superior Suns effort to brush them aside so casually.
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