Thursday, April 14, 2016

NBA Rookie of the Year

Karl-Anthony Towns. (*whew* That was easy) It was a strong year for rookies but KAT was easily--EASILY--the best of the bunch. Just to run it down: Towns led all rookies in G, MP, FG, FGA, FT, FTA, Rebounds (had more defensive rebounds than anyone else had total rebounds), Blocks, Points, top ten in Assists and Steals and the first rookie to average a double-double since Blake Griffin in 2010. Dude has to be unanimous ROY, I just can't see a case for anyone else.

Who's next? I'll lump the rest in tiers. Next tier: Winslow (Heat), Porzingis (Knicks), Booker (Suns), Jokic (Nuggets), Okafor (Sixers), Mudiay (Nuggets)

Going into last year's draft I thought Justice Winslow (Heat) was the one with the highest upside (man, it was crazy that he fell to #10!). I'm not ready to say I was wrong. He still has a lot of room to get better but he comfortably carved out a space in the rotation of an intriguing playoff team and that's pretty awesome for a rookie (a Pat Riley rookie, no less). He's at that point where he's not great at anything but he's good at most everything and I think he may have highest upside (of the non-Towns rookies, of course) going forward: as a DWade apprentice he could become a lethal, efficient scorer and a high level wing defender. Towns is the man but Winslow could still go down as the next best in this draft.

Kristaps Porzingis (Knicks) definitely showed flashes of being a load inside and out on both ends of the court. But he also hit the rookie wall, faded badly by the end of the year and is firmly mired on a team that stinks. But we clearly saw that he can score and defend just fine in this league and that his body, the one real worry about his game, seems plenty strong enough to survive season after season of high level abuse. Knicks fans finally have something to look forward to and that's maybe his most impressive accomplishment of all.

Devin Booker's (Suns) year looks better than his numbers: statistically he's good but the confidence he showed while dragging around a moribund Suns team on his back was really amazing. The Suns were a dumpster fire all year long: the front office has made many horrible moves over the last coupla years and it just got compounded this year. Coach Hornacek got run, Markieff was sent packing and the rotation never coalesced. After Knight and Bledsoe both got hurt, the team was turned over to Booker and he showed he was up to it. He's going to be a helluva scorer in the NBA. (Unfortunately, this surely only means more turmoil from the Suns front office: Bledsoe or Knight or both will get traded this summer, I guarantee)

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), too, showed more than his numbers would indicate: he was in there at the end of games--indeed, he was the level-headed cool customer that a coach could rely on out there, which is amazing to see in a 20 year old rookie. Again, the numbers are fine but his solid instincts and the poise under fire were all you wanna see in a rookie.

Jahlil Okafor (Sixers) lost more games in his first two weeks in the League than he had probably lost in all of high school and college put together, that's gotta be tough on a young competitor. His team stunk and offered very little of a positive environment. Over the course of the year he fell out of favor of most commentators but I thought he still showed out well enough to be in the discussion for 2nd place. Going forward this is his team (I think Nerlens gets traded this summer) and how Embiid, Saric and (Simmons?) get integrated into the team will be based on Okafor's needs. He's the lead dog and he needs to be that from now on. That's a lot for a rookie to have to deal with and while he could've handled it all better, I thought he did well enough.

Emmanual Mudiay (Nuggets) got lost in the shuffle, too. The Nuggets weren't so good this year but, frankly, they were way better than I thought they'd be. With a rookie PG, a new coach and no real stars to build on, I figured they were fresh meat in the West. But they outpaced the Kings (Cousins, Gay, Rondo, Hall of Fame coach, desperate front office) and did a lot better than simply guttering out for another lottery pick. Mudiay deserves a lot of the credit for that. He was shaky at times, still has a lot to learn and he's not much of a shooter, but he displayed a great deal of technique and a winning attitude. I think the Nuggets have two great pieces to build around with Mudiay and Jokic.

Next tier: D'angelo Russell (Lakers), Myles Turner (Pacers), Trey Lyles (Jazz), Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings), Stanley Johnson (Pistons), Frank Kaminsky (Hornets), Larry Nance Jr (Lakers), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Nets)

I wasn't as impressed with Russell as I felt like I should've been, he'll be fine but I can't help thinking the Lakers could've done better with that pick. Turner settled in nicely with the Pacers, I reckon he'll be there for a while. Lyles wasn't asked to do much in Utah but I think he's another perfect piece in their puzzle going forward. Cauley-Stein started slow but by the end of the year I think people really started to understand his game: havoc-wreaking athleticism in a giant body. I wonder about the upside going forward of Johnson but he handled himself well in a playoff rotation. Kaminsky isn't quite the McRoberts replacement Jordan has been dreaming of but he might get close. Nance has a spunky, nimble game that I did not expect (especially since he came out of nowhere on draft night). I may be jumping the gun on Hollis-Jefferson (long stretch of injuries on an abysmal team) but I think as on-ball defender he's gonna be really good.

Wild cards: Bobby Portis (Bulls), Mario Hezonja (Magic), Cameron Payne (Thunder), Boban Marjanovic (Spurs), Nemanja Bjelica (Wolves), TJ McConnell (Sixers)

The Bulls did a poor job incorporating Portis so its hard to tell how good he's gonna be but I liked him coming out of college and I still do. Hezonja probably won't fight for time as much next year, so we'll get a better look at him then. Payne's rookie year was always gonna revolve around the health of Russell Westbrook, who was pretty healthy this year; just a hunch but I think he's gonna be good. Boban is older, wiser and solid at what he does, has Spur written all over him. Personally, I love Bjelica's game and found it maddening he didn't get more playing time in Minnesota, not sure about his future but I think he can be really good. Gotta give a shout to McConnell: he actually had a really solid year on a dysfunctional team and I think he can be a long time PG in this league.

There were others, too: Raul Neto (Jazz), Jerian Grant (Knicks), Justin Anderson (Mavs), Jonathon Simmons (Spurs), Rashad Vaughn (Bucks), Richaun Holmes (Sixers) all had their moments, as well.

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