Firing
Grizzlies fired Coach Fizdale, named JB Bickerstaff as interim coach. There are rumors of Coach Fiz was feuding with Marc Gasol (of course, there are also rumors that Gasol is on the trade block) but I don't get this move because...who was expecting the Grizzlies to be good this year? Unless the front office has decided that Fizdale is not the guy to rebuild with, then I think Fizdale has been good enough to warrant finishing the season. Puzzling move.
Injuries
Mirza Teletovic (Bucks) had knee surgery, out indefinitely. Teletovic has been one of my favorite players to watch over the last few years but the Bucks should have plenty of scoring to withstand his absence for a while.
Paul Millsap (Nuggets) had wrist surgery, out indefinitely. The Nuggets have a lot of depth, ideally they can give Millsap some extended time off to ensure his health later on.
Debuts
Up to 80 debuts in the NBA so far. The 8 latest in the last two weeks: Torrey Craig (Nuggets), Daniel Hamilton (Thunder), Jamil Wilson (Clippers), Tyler Lydon (Nuggets), Kobi Simmons (Grizzlies), Jacob Pullen (Sixers), John Holland (Cavs), Antonius Cleveland (Mavs)
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
2017-18 NFL (Week 12)
Games I watched (some of):
Vikings 30-23 Lions
The Vikings are a steady team, they don't make big mistakes, they don't rely on big plays, they stay within themselves play after play and end up on top more often than not. I know the Eagles are crushing and the Rams are pretty good at running up the score, but I think the Vikings are the sneaky good pick to come out of the NFC. The Lions are still hanging around but they just don't have the consistency, they look okay at times but not enough to think they'll beat out any of the NFC South squads.
Chargers 28-6 Cowboys
Man, the Cowboys made the Chargers look good. The Cowboys have too many injuries to keep pace right now, they are weak in the places they used to look strong and their game plan hasn't adjusted. I thought they overachieved last year and I think we're seeing the correction. The Chargers have been chucking the ball around pretty good all year long but now the D is starting to make plays and they're taking a clear step forward right as the Chiefs are struggling. I think the Chargers keep it going, think the Cowboys are not officially out of the race.
Giants 10-20 Redskins
I thought the Giants would cover that 7.5 point spread and they would have if not for late turnovers (and subsequent defense just good enough to make the Redskins kick a FG rather then just running out the clock). Man, the Giants can't even lose good! The Redskins have moments but if this is as good as they're gonna play then they're not really even that good.
Browns 16-30 Bengals
15,000 years ago at the end of the last Ice Age, ice from the North Pole stretched all the way down the Ohio River. This game made me root for more ice. Global warming, people! It leads to Ohio football! That said, the Bengals offense is getting better and finally reaching out the RB Joe Mixon could be the cornerstone of a mediocre-enough gameplan to get them crushed in the playoffs. Things are looking up!
Saints 20-26 Rams
I was intrigued by the defenses early on in this game, a lot of holding penalties that kept the offenses backpedaling. But the Rams eventually got the best of the depleted Saints D and were lucky enough to recover that onside kick and run out the clock (because the Saints seem to like waiting to the last minute to pull out victories). I like what I see in this Rams team: they play with a ruthlessness that is kinda refreshing in a team that has struggled for so long. With the Seahawks D falling apart, I'm finally convinced the Rams are gonna take the NFC West. But I'm still kinda lukewarm on the Saints. That offense has its moments and the defense is much improved this year, they've got a great QB, a solid coach and a nice influx of youth, but...that propensity to wait til the last minute is troubling. They don't control games, they hang around and it feels like they should be better than that so while they feel like they've got the right vibe, I'm not yet feeling it.
Packer 28-31 Steelers
I've been saying the whole time that Hundley is not bad, he just doesn't yet know what he's doing and he's trying to learn in the most desperate of circumstances (and we're realizing that the Packers without Rodgers are simply not very good). He finally had the game I thought he was capable of and they almost pulled it out. That said, the Steelers are the classic just-good-enough kinda team and even though their best is as good as anyone in the league, they hardly ever play their best, which gives even so-so squads like the Packers a shot at pulling out a victory. The Steelers did enough to win but the Packers gave 'em a scare and I think there's just enough time left for them to get something rolling. I'm not ready to give up on the Packers just yet and while I have to acknowledge the Steelers are in the top two in the AFC, I think there's a widening gap between 1 and 2.
Other results (surprising):
Bills 16-10 Chiefs
The Bills D has been getting smacked around lately (although can we really blame them for the Chargers game when their QB throws 5 interceptions? They never had a chance!) and making puzzling moves on the offense lately made it feel like the Bills were heading in the wrong direction. Fortunately for them, the Chiefs are even more heading in the wrong direction! Can't remember a team that looked so offensively dominant for 6 weeks and then so fucking horrible for 6 weeks, but that offense just does not move the ball any more. Thought the Buffalo D would be an opportunity for them to turn it around but, uh, nope, turned it was Buffalo's opportunity. The Bills have re-emerged in the playoff picture (two games left against New England isn't gonna help) while the Chiefs are suddenly at fingernail depth on their post-season chances.
Texans 16-23 Ravens
Whatever happened in this game was going to be a surprise because I don't even know who the Texans are any more after all their injuries and the Ravens are such a Jekyll and Hyde squad, I had no idea whether they'd look good tonight or not. The Ravens jumped back ahead of the Bills in Wild Card race, can't see them catching the Steelers and they may struggle to stay ahead of the Bengals. We'll see.
Other results (not so surprising):
Titans 20-16 Colts
The Titans, like the Steelers, do just enough to win, which is fine when you're playing the Colts but I don't think that bodes well for them in the post-season. The Colts suck and even when they don't suck, they still tend to find ways to give games away.
Bears 3-31 Eagles
The Bears suck. The offense has some upside and I still like the D line, a coaching change will serve them well next year. The Eagles are legit good on both sides of the ball. Wentz is probably the most improved player in the league (neck and neck with Jared Goff, right?), the D is one of the best in the league and the rest of the skill positions are falling into place. The Eagles are looking like #1 in the NFC.
Panthers 35-27 Jets
Ugh! What a terrible game! I caught the end of this where the Jets were trying as hard as they could to give them game away and the Panthers only half-heartedly took it. The Panthers are winning but I can't for the life of me figure out how, the rest of their schedule is a buzzsaw and I think they're about to get sliced. The Jets are actually not as awful as I thought they'd be. I mean...that's something, right?
Dolphins 17-35 Patriots
Tom Brady gets beat up more this year than I remembered in the past--and that's considering that he moves better than he used to. The Dolphins D (re: Suh) has nothing better to do than snap him in half, which is really the only thing that could trip up the Pats right now. The Dolphins are another one of those teams that really aren't that bad when they're not going out of their way to be bad, is bringing back Tannehill the golden ticket for them?
Bucs 20-34 Falcons
The Falcons offense is better than its been, they've got good momentum heading into a lot of extremely meaningful division games, but they're not as good as last year, not all the ills are healed. I think they get past the Panthers and Seahawks, though. We'll see. The Bucs suck, they have moments of quality football but they never look like they're going to win.
Seahawks 24-13 Niners
The Niners had to bring in Garropolo but you could tell they didn't really want to. They've pretty much announced they're going franchise tag him next year, so he'll get a big paycheck while the team decides if he really is the guy for the future (I suspect he is), but for now there's no reason to interrupt that bid for a top 5 draft pick to go with their shiny new QB. I don't blame them. They suck anyway, why bother to try to win now? As for the Seahawks, that defense is steadily crumbling and they still haven't figured out the offensive line. Its all on Russell Wilson (if they make the playoffs he needs some serious MVP discussion) and with the Falcons playing well (and the Packers figuring it out?), its gonna be tough for them to salvage this season.
Jags 24-27 Cards
Strangely similar teams: good defenses, shaky QBs, offenses that rely on the running game. Neither team is very good nor really bad. The Jags should probably make the playoffs (but will undoubtedly get smoked badly right away) while the Cards have no shot at anything good any time soon.
Broncos 14-21 Raiders
One of these teams is falling apart while the other is suddenly back in the playoff race, but this game is not much of an indicator of which is which.
Won (covered): Vikings, Chargers, Redskins, Falcons, Bengals, Titans, Bills, Pats, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Raiders, Rams, Cards
Won (didn't cover): Steelers, Ravens
Lost (covered): Packers, Texans
Lost (didn't cover): Lions, cowboys, Giants, Bucs, Browns, Colts, Chiefs, Dolphins, Jets, Bears, Niners, Broncos, Saints, Jags
Vikings 30-23 Lions
The Vikings are a steady team, they don't make big mistakes, they don't rely on big plays, they stay within themselves play after play and end up on top more often than not. I know the Eagles are crushing and the Rams are pretty good at running up the score, but I think the Vikings are the sneaky good pick to come out of the NFC. The Lions are still hanging around but they just don't have the consistency, they look okay at times but not enough to think they'll beat out any of the NFC South squads.
Chargers 28-6 Cowboys
Man, the Cowboys made the Chargers look good. The Cowboys have too many injuries to keep pace right now, they are weak in the places they used to look strong and their game plan hasn't adjusted. I thought they overachieved last year and I think we're seeing the correction. The Chargers have been chucking the ball around pretty good all year long but now the D is starting to make plays and they're taking a clear step forward right as the Chiefs are struggling. I think the Chargers keep it going, think the Cowboys are not officially out of the race.
Giants 10-20 Redskins
I thought the Giants would cover that 7.5 point spread and they would have if not for late turnovers (and subsequent defense just good enough to make the Redskins kick a FG rather then just running out the clock). Man, the Giants can't even lose good! The Redskins have moments but if this is as good as they're gonna play then they're not really even that good.
Browns 16-30 Bengals
15,000 years ago at the end of the last Ice Age, ice from the North Pole stretched all the way down the Ohio River. This game made me root for more ice. Global warming, people! It leads to Ohio football! That said, the Bengals offense is getting better and finally reaching out the RB Joe Mixon could be the cornerstone of a mediocre-enough gameplan to get them crushed in the playoffs. Things are looking up!
Saints 20-26 Rams
I was intrigued by the defenses early on in this game, a lot of holding penalties that kept the offenses backpedaling. But the Rams eventually got the best of the depleted Saints D and were lucky enough to recover that onside kick and run out the clock (because the Saints seem to like waiting to the last minute to pull out victories). I like what I see in this Rams team: they play with a ruthlessness that is kinda refreshing in a team that has struggled for so long. With the Seahawks D falling apart, I'm finally convinced the Rams are gonna take the NFC West. But I'm still kinda lukewarm on the Saints. That offense has its moments and the defense is much improved this year, they've got a great QB, a solid coach and a nice influx of youth, but...that propensity to wait til the last minute is troubling. They don't control games, they hang around and it feels like they should be better than that so while they feel like they've got the right vibe, I'm not yet feeling it.
Packer 28-31 Steelers
I've been saying the whole time that Hundley is not bad, he just doesn't yet know what he's doing and he's trying to learn in the most desperate of circumstances (and we're realizing that the Packers without Rodgers are simply not very good). He finally had the game I thought he was capable of and they almost pulled it out. That said, the Steelers are the classic just-good-enough kinda team and even though their best is as good as anyone in the league, they hardly ever play their best, which gives even so-so squads like the Packers a shot at pulling out a victory. The Steelers did enough to win but the Packers gave 'em a scare and I think there's just enough time left for them to get something rolling. I'm not ready to give up on the Packers just yet and while I have to acknowledge the Steelers are in the top two in the AFC, I think there's a widening gap between 1 and 2.
Other results (surprising):
Bills 16-10 Chiefs
The Bills D has been getting smacked around lately (although can we really blame them for the Chargers game when their QB throws 5 interceptions? They never had a chance!) and making puzzling moves on the offense lately made it feel like the Bills were heading in the wrong direction. Fortunately for them, the Chiefs are even more heading in the wrong direction! Can't remember a team that looked so offensively dominant for 6 weeks and then so fucking horrible for 6 weeks, but that offense just does not move the ball any more. Thought the Buffalo D would be an opportunity for them to turn it around but, uh, nope, turned it was Buffalo's opportunity. The Bills have re-emerged in the playoff picture (two games left against New England isn't gonna help) while the Chiefs are suddenly at fingernail depth on their post-season chances.
Texans 16-23 Ravens
Whatever happened in this game was going to be a surprise because I don't even know who the Texans are any more after all their injuries and the Ravens are such a Jekyll and Hyde squad, I had no idea whether they'd look good tonight or not. The Ravens jumped back ahead of the Bills in Wild Card race, can't see them catching the Steelers and they may struggle to stay ahead of the Bengals. We'll see.
Other results (not so surprising):
Titans 20-16 Colts
The Titans, like the Steelers, do just enough to win, which is fine when you're playing the Colts but I don't think that bodes well for them in the post-season. The Colts suck and even when they don't suck, they still tend to find ways to give games away.
Bears 3-31 Eagles
The Bears suck. The offense has some upside and I still like the D line, a coaching change will serve them well next year. The Eagles are legit good on both sides of the ball. Wentz is probably the most improved player in the league (neck and neck with Jared Goff, right?), the D is one of the best in the league and the rest of the skill positions are falling into place. The Eagles are looking like #1 in the NFC.
Panthers 35-27 Jets
Ugh! What a terrible game! I caught the end of this where the Jets were trying as hard as they could to give them game away and the Panthers only half-heartedly took it. The Panthers are winning but I can't for the life of me figure out how, the rest of their schedule is a buzzsaw and I think they're about to get sliced. The Jets are actually not as awful as I thought they'd be. I mean...that's something, right?
Dolphins 17-35 Patriots
Tom Brady gets beat up more this year than I remembered in the past--and that's considering that he moves better than he used to. The Dolphins D (re: Suh) has nothing better to do than snap him in half, which is really the only thing that could trip up the Pats right now. The Dolphins are another one of those teams that really aren't that bad when they're not going out of their way to be bad, is bringing back Tannehill the golden ticket for them?
Bucs 20-34 Falcons
The Falcons offense is better than its been, they've got good momentum heading into a lot of extremely meaningful division games, but they're not as good as last year, not all the ills are healed. I think they get past the Panthers and Seahawks, though. We'll see. The Bucs suck, they have moments of quality football but they never look like they're going to win.
Seahawks 24-13 Niners
The Niners had to bring in Garropolo but you could tell they didn't really want to. They've pretty much announced they're going franchise tag him next year, so he'll get a big paycheck while the team decides if he really is the guy for the future (I suspect he is), but for now there's no reason to interrupt that bid for a top 5 draft pick to go with their shiny new QB. I don't blame them. They suck anyway, why bother to try to win now? As for the Seahawks, that defense is steadily crumbling and they still haven't figured out the offensive line. Its all on Russell Wilson (if they make the playoffs he needs some serious MVP discussion) and with the Falcons playing well (and the Packers figuring it out?), its gonna be tough for them to salvage this season.
Jags 24-27 Cards
Strangely similar teams: good defenses, shaky QBs, offenses that rely on the running game. Neither team is very good nor really bad. The Jags should probably make the playoffs (but will undoubtedly get smoked badly right away) while the Cards have no shot at anything good any time soon.
Broncos 14-21 Raiders
One of these teams is falling apart while the other is suddenly back in the playoff race, but this game is not much of an indicator of which is which.
Won (covered): Vikings, Chargers, Redskins, Falcons, Bengals, Titans, Bills, Pats, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Raiders, Rams, Cards
Won (didn't cover): Steelers, Ravens
Lost (covered): Packers, Texans
Lost (didn't cover): Lions, cowboys, Giants, Bucs, Browns, Colts, Chiefs, Dolphins, Jets, Bears, Niners, Broncos, Saints, Jags
2017-18 NCAA Football (Week 13)
(1) Alabama 14-26 (6) Auburn
Impressive win for Auburn. Coming out of the 2nd half, Alabama went right down and scored to regain the lead and it felt like the Tide was gonna roll. But Auburn answered and when Alabama muffed a FG, Auburn rode the momentum smothering Bama down the stretch. Alabama's QB didn't look comfortable in the pocket, he runs well but I thought he was too eager to run instead of pushing the ball downfield and what was up with two straight bad snaps in crunch time? Okay, this sets up Alabama as a potential to sneak into the playoff even without making it to the SEC final. I like Auburn's chances to thump Georgia once more and head on into the playoff.
(3) Clemson 34-10 (24) South Carolina
Clemson have lucked their way back to the top of the rankings, right as they head into the ACC final against Miami. I've thought Clemson was a top-4 team all year long but after that puzzling loss to Syracuse, I thought they might not get back into it. But here they are, sailing in possibly as #1 overall. As for South Carolina...uh....stay gold, pony boy.
(8) Notre Dame 20-38 (21) Stanford
This was one last chance for Notre Dame to sneak their way into the playoff--long shot but not impossible--but getting drilled by Stanford was not a good way to finish off the season. Narrow loss to Georgia, looked good against their weaker competition, but getting tagged by Miami and Stanford drops them pretty deep into the second tier. Stanford did not really register with me all year long (frankly the PAC was a big ol' pile of nothing special, I thought), but picking up a top ten W heading into their rematch with Southern Cal is nice. I see no scenario where Stanford gets into the playoff but if they can drop a bomb on USC, they'll definitely snag a top quality bowl.
(13) Washington State 14-41 (17) Washington
Man, Cougars did not show up for this one. Needed to take this one to get into the Pac-12 final and they were never in this game. It seems like the entire PAC was pretty good but not all that this season and the difference between these two teams was razor thin. That said, Huskies clearly wanted this one more.
Top 25
Handled their business
(3) Clemson, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Wisconsin, (6) Auburn, (7) Georgia, (9) Ohio State, (10) Penn State, (12) TCU, (15) Central Florida (dubbed by some the game of the year), (16) Michigan State, (17) Washington, (18) LSU, (19) Oklahoma State, (20) Memphis, (21) Stanford, (22) Northwestern, (25) Virginia Tech
Not so good
(1) Alabama. Still got a shot at the playoff--maybe better than if they'd won!
(2) Miami. They get up for the big games but are curiously sloppy in the low key contests. That would seem to bode well for their ACC final against Clemson, except that I think Clemson is way better.
(8) Notre Dame. Yeah, they had a shot at something special but a no-show this week finished them off.
(13) Washington State. Needed this one, did not get it.
(14) Mississippi State. Lost to their in-state rival, came close to having a really good year.
(23) Boise State. In and out of the top 25 all year long.
(24) South Carolina. Yeah, no reason they should've been ranked this high at this point.
Next week's games
(14) Stanford @ (11) Southern Cal
Down the stretch I think Stanford is playing better and are well-positioned to avenge their loss to USC earlier this year. Southern Cal came into the year with (absurdly) high expectations, honestly their best W all year was thumping Stanford early on. All the PAC teams look pretty much the same to me so I'll stick with Stanford (+3) to win.
(10) TCU @ (2) Oklahoma
I'm not convinced that Oklahoma is vastly better than their Big 12 competition but they have endured more than everyone else and their QB is balling out right now. TCU has an explosive offense but it disappears from time to time. If Oklahoma turns the ball over, TCU could get some momentum going and pile up some points, but I still like Oklahoma (-7) to get the W.
(5) Georgia @ (4) Auburn
To my eye Georgia is overrated every year. Much like St. John's in NCAA basketball, Georgia is a school that all the scribes have heard of and that alone manages to sneak them into the pre-season prognostications. But this year I was impressed with Georgia's ability to roll with what they encountered until they played Auburn (and also before it became apparent that the SEC East was as bad as I think I've ever seen it). Auburn, on the other hand, dropped a game to Clemson (one of the best teams in the country) and had an odd fail at LSU, but have otherwise easily bested everyone they've played including #1 Alabama. I think Auburn is the better team overall and they're playing better right now. I'll go with Auburn (-2.5) to control this game throughout.
(7) Miami @ (1) Clemson
Miami has annoyed me all year long: I thought nothing of their long winning streak of barely squeaking past so-so opponents, figuring that Virginia Tech and Notre Dame would trip them up; not only did that not happen, Miami dropped bombs on the only two good teams they played this year. But they finally got burned by not-even-any-good Pittsburgh ahead of the ACC final. Clemson is good. So will Miami show up and dropkick Clemson? I'm not seeing it. I think Clemson has been properly chastened by their head-scratching loss to Syracuse and will resume their quest to repeat as champions. I like Clemson (-10) to win easily (though I'm a little queasy about a double digit spread in a championship game).
(8) Ohio State @ (3) Wisconsin
Ohio State is a weird one: some weeks they look like classic Buckeyes, but just as often they look like they're just hanging on. This makes them the most unpredictable team: they might be great or they might be terrible and there's no real reason for either! Wisconsin, on the other hand, is clockwork week after week: run up the middle then stuff the opponent with their standup D-line (the old school Nebraska playbook). My gut is Ohio State's best is better than Wisconsin's best but that Wisconsin's average is decidedly better than Ohio State's average. So is this a big game or an average game? I think I'll take average. I think Wisconsin (+5.5) plays their game, grinds down the Buckeyes and exploits whatever mistakes they can cause.
So how's playoff looking? I'll go with Clemson, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Auburn.
Impressive win for Auburn. Coming out of the 2nd half, Alabama went right down and scored to regain the lead and it felt like the Tide was gonna roll. But Auburn answered and when Alabama muffed a FG, Auburn rode the momentum smothering Bama down the stretch. Alabama's QB didn't look comfortable in the pocket, he runs well but I thought he was too eager to run instead of pushing the ball downfield and what was up with two straight bad snaps in crunch time? Okay, this sets up Alabama as a potential to sneak into the playoff even without making it to the SEC final. I like Auburn's chances to thump Georgia once more and head on into the playoff.
(3) Clemson 34-10 (24) South Carolina
Clemson have lucked their way back to the top of the rankings, right as they head into the ACC final against Miami. I've thought Clemson was a top-4 team all year long but after that puzzling loss to Syracuse, I thought they might not get back into it. But here they are, sailing in possibly as #1 overall. As for South Carolina...uh....stay gold, pony boy.
(8) Notre Dame 20-38 (21) Stanford
This was one last chance for Notre Dame to sneak their way into the playoff--long shot but not impossible--but getting drilled by Stanford was not a good way to finish off the season. Narrow loss to Georgia, looked good against their weaker competition, but getting tagged by Miami and Stanford drops them pretty deep into the second tier. Stanford did not really register with me all year long (frankly the PAC was a big ol' pile of nothing special, I thought), but picking up a top ten W heading into their rematch with Southern Cal is nice. I see no scenario where Stanford gets into the playoff but if they can drop a bomb on USC, they'll definitely snag a top quality bowl.
(13) Washington State 14-41 (17) Washington
Man, Cougars did not show up for this one. Needed to take this one to get into the Pac-12 final and they were never in this game. It seems like the entire PAC was pretty good but not all that this season and the difference between these two teams was razor thin. That said, Huskies clearly wanted this one more.
Top 25
Handled their business
(3) Clemson, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Wisconsin, (6) Auburn, (7) Georgia, (9) Ohio State, (10) Penn State, (12) TCU, (15) Central Florida (dubbed by some the game of the year), (16) Michigan State, (17) Washington, (18) LSU, (19) Oklahoma State, (20) Memphis, (21) Stanford, (22) Northwestern, (25) Virginia Tech
Not so good
(1) Alabama. Still got a shot at the playoff--maybe better than if they'd won!
(2) Miami. They get up for the big games but are curiously sloppy in the low key contests. That would seem to bode well for their ACC final against Clemson, except that I think Clemson is way better.
(8) Notre Dame. Yeah, they had a shot at something special but a no-show this week finished them off.
(13) Washington State. Needed this one, did not get it.
(14) Mississippi State. Lost to their in-state rival, came close to having a really good year.
(23) Boise State. In and out of the top 25 all year long.
(24) South Carolina. Yeah, no reason they should've been ranked this high at this point.
Next week's games
(14) Stanford @ (11) Southern Cal
Down the stretch I think Stanford is playing better and are well-positioned to avenge their loss to USC earlier this year. Southern Cal came into the year with (absurdly) high expectations, honestly their best W all year was thumping Stanford early on. All the PAC teams look pretty much the same to me so I'll stick with Stanford (+3) to win.
(10) TCU @ (2) Oklahoma
I'm not convinced that Oklahoma is vastly better than their Big 12 competition but they have endured more than everyone else and their QB is balling out right now. TCU has an explosive offense but it disappears from time to time. If Oklahoma turns the ball over, TCU could get some momentum going and pile up some points, but I still like Oklahoma (-7) to get the W.
(5) Georgia @ (4) Auburn
To my eye Georgia is overrated every year. Much like St. John's in NCAA basketball, Georgia is a school that all the scribes have heard of and that alone manages to sneak them into the pre-season prognostications. But this year I was impressed with Georgia's ability to roll with what they encountered until they played Auburn (and also before it became apparent that the SEC East was as bad as I think I've ever seen it). Auburn, on the other hand, dropped a game to Clemson (one of the best teams in the country) and had an odd fail at LSU, but have otherwise easily bested everyone they've played including #1 Alabama. I think Auburn is the better team overall and they're playing better right now. I'll go with Auburn (-2.5) to control this game throughout.
(7) Miami @ (1) Clemson
Miami has annoyed me all year long: I thought nothing of their long winning streak of barely squeaking past so-so opponents, figuring that Virginia Tech and Notre Dame would trip them up; not only did that not happen, Miami dropped bombs on the only two good teams they played this year. But they finally got burned by not-even-any-good Pittsburgh ahead of the ACC final. Clemson is good. So will Miami show up and dropkick Clemson? I'm not seeing it. I think Clemson has been properly chastened by their head-scratching loss to Syracuse and will resume their quest to repeat as champions. I like Clemson (-10) to win easily (though I'm a little queasy about a double digit spread in a championship game).
(8) Ohio State @ (3) Wisconsin
Ohio State is a weird one: some weeks they look like classic Buckeyes, but just as often they look like they're just hanging on. This makes them the most unpredictable team: they might be great or they might be terrible and there's no real reason for either! Wisconsin, on the other hand, is clockwork week after week: run up the middle then stuff the opponent with their standup D-line (the old school Nebraska playbook). My gut is Ohio State's best is better than Wisconsin's best but that Wisconsin's average is decidedly better than Ohio State's average. So is this a big game or an average game? I think I'll take average. I think Wisconsin (+5.5) plays their game, grinds down the Buckeyes and exploits whatever mistakes they can cause.
So how's playoff looking? I'll go with Clemson, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Auburn.
Thursday, November 23, 2017
2017-18 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 5)
Signings
Robert Covington (Sixers) signs extension 4yrs/$62m. I like Covington, $15m/per seems like a lot to pay him but someone would've paid him. Good move for the Sixers.
Mavs waive Gian Clavell; sign Antonius Clevland to a 2-way contract. Clavell played less then 70 undistinguished minutes in the NBA, looks like he's finished his cup o' coffee. I have no idea who Cleveland is, welcome to the league.
Injuries
Okaro White (Heat) had surgery on a broken foot, estimated to be out for a least a few months.
D'Angelo Russell (Nets) had knee surgery, no timetable for his return. (Doesn't seem to be a long time off the court, but does raise the likelihood that the Nets will apply for an injury exception based on losing Jeremy Lin)
Delon Wright (Raptors) out indefinitely with dislocated shoulder.
Patrick Beverley (Clippers) out for the season following knee surgery. Man, the injury/rotation woes of the Clippers just keep piling up.
Robert Covington (Sixers) signs extension 4yrs/$62m. I like Covington, $15m/per seems like a lot to pay him but someone would've paid him. Good move for the Sixers.
Mavs waive Gian Clavell; sign Antonius Clevland to a 2-way contract. Clavell played less then 70 undistinguished minutes in the NBA, looks like he's finished his cup o' coffee. I have no idea who Cleveland is, welcome to the league.
Injuries
Okaro White (Heat) had surgery on a broken foot, estimated to be out for a least a few months.
D'Angelo Russell (Nets) had knee surgery, no timetable for his return. (Doesn't seem to be a long time off the court, but does raise the likelihood that the Nets will apply for an injury exception based on losing Jeremy Lin)
Delon Wright (Raptors) out indefinitely with dislocated shoulder.
Patrick Beverley (Clippers) out for the season following knee surgery. Man, the injury/rotation woes of the Clippers just keep piling up.
Tuesday, November 21, 2017
2017-18 NFL (Week 11)
Games I watched (some of):
Redskins 31-34 (OT) Saints
The Redskins....man....they had this game won, the game was over, all they had to do was run it out. They gave the Saints just enough room to come back and that's all it took. Still not sure about eh Saints: obviously at times they look explosive and good enough to beat anyone, but they still seem over their head somehow. I'm sure they're a playoff team, well on their way to winning the division and the Eagles, Rams and Vikings are not experienced squads, I guess they could make a run. But I'm not convinced just yet.
Ravens 23-0 Packers
Ugh! The problem with Brett Hundley is he isn't that bad. He's got good feet, moves well in the pocket, rolls out of the pocket like he's been watching Aaron Rodgers his entire career. But once he moves he...I dunno...he doesn't trust his arm or his vision or his receivers so that when he does make a move its two seconds too late and at best goes nowhere. The Ravens, meanwhile, didn't even play particularly well and looked like a playoff team. Man, this was no fun to watch.
Eagles 37-9 Cowboys
Cowboys held them close in the first half but the Eagles straight pounded them in the 2nd half. Dak doesn't look healthy, looks tentative and he just doesn't have the time or the playmkers to get much done out there. The Eagles look well-drilled on both sides, still the tops in the NFC, while the Cowboys look like they're headed toward a searching for a new coach.
Other results (surprising):
Bucs 30-20 Dolphins
Where did the Bucs get 30 points from? Is Jameis holding them back? The Dolphins just keep getting worse, one of these teams that isn't bad enough to lose this bad but not good enough to win as good as they do. Weird. Bucs are done, Dolphins still have time in the lackluster AFC.
Chiefs 9-12 (OT) Giants
Okay, time for the Chiefs to start worrying. They've still got time to get it back together (Bills coming to town next week is either the death blow or the perfect opportunity to right the ship), it could be that cratering in Novemeber is the best thing that ever happened to them. But this game was awful: couldn't move the ball, made dumb mistakes, created no luck, didn't make plays. Poor performances all the way around. The Giants--hey, they looked good, right? No. Not particularly. They still stunk and won and that makes no sense at all.
Other results (not so surprising):
Titans 17-40 Steelers
The Steelers are capable of this kind of performance and yet do it so rarely, why is that? The Titans are a nice team but they're still many pieces away from being a worthwhile squad, even in the AFC.
Lions 27-24 Bears
The Bears had their shot to stay alive but blew it. We can say that was disappointing but they're not a very good team. Have they underachieved or overachieved? Not sure. The Lions are up and down, this was a lucky one for them and they needed it.
Jags 19-7 Browns
The Jags don't score much, do they? That D is tip top but that offense needs to run, run, run to get anywhere at all. Kudos to the Browns, they're playing hard again and that's good to see, they'll get a win pretty soon I reckon.
Cards 21-31 Texans
I thought the Cards had a shot in this game but these are two bad teams that expected to be good teams. Kinda sad.
Rams 7-24 Vikings
Wish I'd gotten to see this game. Close in the 1st half but the Viking D shut down the Rams in the 2nd half, good win for the Vikings. I think the Vikings have the best shot of knocking off the Eagles.
Bills 24-54 Chargers
Bills went with a QB change...why? What could've happened that would've made the difference? If the rookie goes into LA and ekes out a W, does that mean the season is saved? Does that mean all the problems have been solved? No. So why take out Tyrod? Look, I get it: Tyrod is a very capable 2nd string QB but not a starter. But he's the guy they got now, all their wins came with him under center and he is certainly not the problem. Dumb move that made a hard game harder. The Chargers are still very much in the race, they've got a really good D-line and a veteran QB and that puts them in the mix in the AFC.
Bengals 20-17 Broncos
Two bad teams looking bad at the same time. The Bengals have moments of competent play but not enough to think they're gonna make the playoffs. The Broncos are going backwards very quickly.
Patriots 33-8 Raiders (in Mexico City)
The Pats continue to round into shape. The Raiders have been disappointing all year long and I don't see why that would turn around in the next month (although the AFC is unusually awful).
Falcons 34-31 Seahawks
Okay, are the Falcons gonna get hot enough to steal a playoff spot? The Seahawks are losing defensive stalwarts and that O-line still sucks, but they should still get a spot in the post-season.
Redskins 31-34 (OT) Saints
The Redskins....man....they had this game won, the game was over, all they had to do was run it out. They gave the Saints just enough room to come back and that's all it took. Still not sure about eh Saints: obviously at times they look explosive and good enough to beat anyone, but they still seem over their head somehow. I'm sure they're a playoff team, well on their way to winning the division and the Eagles, Rams and Vikings are not experienced squads, I guess they could make a run. But I'm not convinced just yet.
Ravens 23-0 Packers
Ugh! The problem with Brett Hundley is he isn't that bad. He's got good feet, moves well in the pocket, rolls out of the pocket like he's been watching Aaron Rodgers his entire career. But once he moves he...I dunno...he doesn't trust his arm or his vision or his receivers so that when he does make a move its two seconds too late and at best goes nowhere. The Ravens, meanwhile, didn't even play particularly well and looked like a playoff team. Man, this was no fun to watch.
Eagles 37-9 Cowboys
Cowboys held them close in the first half but the Eagles straight pounded them in the 2nd half. Dak doesn't look healthy, looks tentative and he just doesn't have the time or the playmkers to get much done out there. The Eagles look well-drilled on both sides, still the tops in the NFC, while the Cowboys look like they're headed toward a searching for a new coach.
Other results (surprising):
Bucs 30-20 Dolphins
Where did the Bucs get 30 points from? Is Jameis holding them back? The Dolphins just keep getting worse, one of these teams that isn't bad enough to lose this bad but not good enough to win as good as they do. Weird. Bucs are done, Dolphins still have time in the lackluster AFC.
Chiefs 9-12 (OT) Giants
Okay, time for the Chiefs to start worrying. They've still got time to get it back together (Bills coming to town next week is either the death blow or the perfect opportunity to right the ship), it could be that cratering in Novemeber is the best thing that ever happened to them. But this game was awful: couldn't move the ball, made dumb mistakes, created no luck, didn't make plays. Poor performances all the way around. The Giants--hey, they looked good, right? No. Not particularly. They still stunk and won and that makes no sense at all.
Other results (not so surprising):
Titans 17-40 Steelers
The Steelers are capable of this kind of performance and yet do it so rarely, why is that? The Titans are a nice team but they're still many pieces away from being a worthwhile squad, even in the AFC.
Lions 27-24 Bears
The Bears had their shot to stay alive but blew it. We can say that was disappointing but they're not a very good team. Have they underachieved or overachieved? Not sure. The Lions are up and down, this was a lucky one for them and they needed it.
Jags 19-7 Browns
The Jags don't score much, do they? That D is tip top but that offense needs to run, run, run to get anywhere at all. Kudos to the Browns, they're playing hard again and that's good to see, they'll get a win pretty soon I reckon.
Cards 21-31 Texans
I thought the Cards had a shot in this game but these are two bad teams that expected to be good teams. Kinda sad.
Rams 7-24 Vikings
Wish I'd gotten to see this game. Close in the 1st half but the Viking D shut down the Rams in the 2nd half, good win for the Vikings. I think the Vikings have the best shot of knocking off the Eagles.
Bills 24-54 Chargers
Bills went with a QB change...why? What could've happened that would've made the difference? If the rookie goes into LA and ekes out a W, does that mean the season is saved? Does that mean all the problems have been solved? No. So why take out Tyrod? Look, I get it: Tyrod is a very capable 2nd string QB but not a starter. But he's the guy they got now, all their wins came with him under center and he is certainly not the problem. Dumb move that made a hard game harder. The Chargers are still very much in the race, they've got a really good D-line and a veteran QB and that puts them in the mix in the AFC.
Bengals 20-17 Broncos
Two bad teams looking bad at the same time. The Bengals have moments of competent play but not enough to think they're gonna make the playoffs. The Broncos are going backwards very quickly.
Patriots 33-8 Raiders (in Mexico City)
The Pats continue to round into shape. The Raiders have been disappointing all year long and I don't see why that would turn around in the next month (although the AFC is unusually awful).
Falcons 34-31 Seahawks
Okay, are the Falcons gonna get hot enough to steal a playoff spot? The Seahawks are losing defensive stalwarts and that O-line still sucks, but they should still get a spot in the post-season.
Sunday, November 19, 2017
2017-18 NCAA Football (Week 12)
(24) Michigan 10-24 (5) Wisconsin
Wolverines held the Badgers close til halftime but they just don't have enough offense to control the clock or win the field position battle. It was just a matter of time before Wisconsin ground them down. Michigan still has one last high profile game with Ohio State next week; Wisconsin has one last tuneup game at Minnesota before facing the Buckeyes in the Big 10 final in two weeks.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Miami, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Wisconsin, (6) Auburn, (7) Georgia, (8) Notre Dame, (9) Ohio State, (10) Penn State, (11) Southern Cal, (12) TCU, (15) Central Florida, (16) Mississippi State, (17) Michigan State, (18) Washington, (20) LSU, (21) Memphis, (22) Stanford, (24) Northwestern, (25) Boise State
Not so good
(13) Oklahoma State. Came back late to make a game of it but they spotted Kansas State way too many points to make up.
(19) North Carolina State. They've had some good wins and some bad losses, Wake is playing well lately, should've seen this one coming.
Playoff as of now:
Oklahoma (they're already in, right?)
Auburn-Alabama-Georgia (I'll go with Alabama but they do still have their two toughest games ahead)
Clemson-Miami (I'll go with Clemson though Miami has looked good in the big games)
Wisconsin-Ohio State (Wisconsin is an easy call if they win, but Ohio State might need some good faith to get to the final four)
I'm not seeing Central Florida or the Pac-12 champ getting any love. I guess if Notre Dame throttles Stanford (on the road) and Ohio State barely squeaks by Wisconsin in an ugly game and Miami beats Clemson, maybe the Irish get some support, but that feels like a long shot.
Next week's interesting games
(1) Alabama @ (6) Auburn
Basically an SEC semi-final game: winner plays Georgia in the SEC final
(9) Notre Dame @ (20) Stanford
Strangely meaningless contest: Stanford's going to the Pac-12 final and Notre Dame goes to a good bowl game regardless of this outcome (though its in their best interest to get a big win, if possible)
(22) South Florida @ (13) Central Florida
Similar to the SEC, South Florida still has a shot at going to the American Conference championship against Memphis if they can get past Central Florida
(15) Washington State @ (14) Washington
If State wins they face Stanford in the Pac-12 final, Washington only gets bragging rights and spoiler status at home
Wolverines held the Badgers close til halftime but they just don't have enough offense to control the clock or win the field position battle. It was just a matter of time before Wisconsin ground them down. Michigan still has one last high profile game with Ohio State next week; Wisconsin has one last tuneup game at Minnesota before facing the Buckeyes in the Big 10 final in two weeks.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Miami, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Wisconsin, (6) Auburn, (7) Georgia, (8) Notre Dame, (9) Ohio State, (10) Penn State, (11) Southern Cal, (12) TCU, (15) Central Florida, (16) Mississippi State, (17) Michigan State, (18) Washington, (20) LSU, (21) Memphis, (22) Stanford, (24) Northwestern, (25) Boise State
Not so good
(13) Oklahoma State. Came back late to make a game of it but they spotted Kansas State way too many points to make up.
(19) North Carolina State. They've had some good wins and some bad losses, Wake is playing well lately, should've seen this one coming.
Playoff as of now:
Oklahoma (they're already in, right?)
Auburn-Alabama-Georgia (I'll go with Alabama but they do still have their two toughest games ahead)
Clemson-Miami (I'll go with Clemson though Miami has looked good in the big games)
Wisconsin-Ohio State (Wisconsin is an easy call if they win, but Ohio State might need some good faith to get to the final four)
I'm not seeing Central Florida or the Pac-12 champ getting any love. I guess if Notre Dame throttles Stanford (on the road) and Ohio State barely squeaks by Wisconsin in an ugly game and Miami beats Clemson, maybe the Irish get some support, but that feels like a long shot.
Next week's interesting games
(1) Alabama @ (6) Auburn
Basically an SEC semi-final game: winner plays Georgia in the SEC final
(9) Notre Dame @ (20) Stanford
Strangely meaningless contest: Stanford's going to the Pac-12 final and Notre Dame goes to a good bowl game regardless of this outcome (though its in their best interest to get a big win, if possible)
(22) South Florida @ (13) Central Florida
Similar to the SEC, South Florida still has a shot at going to the American Conference championship against Memphis if they can get past Central Florida
(15) Washington State @ (14) Washington
If State wins they face Stanford in the Pac-12 final, Washington only gets bragging rights and spoiler status at home
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
2017-18 NBA Awards Watch (Week 4)
ROY
Up to 72 debuts in the NBA this year. 3 more this week: Matt Csotello (Spurs), CJ Williams (Clippers), Furkan Korkmaz (Sixers).
Only 1 rookie currently above 30MPG, 15PPG, 9RPG, 7APG, 70 total FTA, 20 total Steals: Ben Simmons (Sixers). (One suggestion: Ben, work on your FT shooting, it's good for developing your jumper and it's where a lot of your points are going to come. You're not fulfilling your full awesomeness til you start knocking down some gimmes)
Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Dennis Smith (Mavs), Lonzo Ball (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz) are having fine seasons and John Collins (Hawks) and Kyle Kuzma (Lakers) are legitimately joining the rookie buzz.
MVP
As of now 5 legit candidates: James Harden (Rockets), DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans), Lebron James (Cavs), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) and Ben Simmons (Sixers). (Yeah, I said it)
DPOY
Among the league leaders in Defensive Rebounds, Steals and Blocks: DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans), Andre Drummond (Pistons), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) and Anthony Davis (Pelicans). Throw in Lebron James (Cavs) and Rudy Gobert (Jazz) and that would seem to round out the candidates so far.
6th Man
Kyle Kuzma (Lakers) is a pretty good rebounder off the bench, reliable shooter close to the basket (kinda disappointing 3P% at the moment). Will Barton (Nuggets) is shooting well from 3PT and 2PT (though strangely mediocre from FT), 2:1 Asst:TO rate. Kelly Oubre (Wizards) shoots well off the bench and pretty good rebounder too (though not terribly noteworthy on defense or as a ball handler). Terry Rozier (Celtics), sure handed with the ball, decent rebounder (though not scoring particularly well). Marco Belinelli (Hawks) is tearing it up from 3PT and the FT, excellent Asst:TO, the kind of reliable vet off the bench that every coach dreams of. Tyreke Evans (Grizzlies), shooting at a good % and taking care of the ball. Jonathon Simmons (Magic), more turnovers then you'd like off the bench but scoring well. Lou Williams (Lakers) is shooting well (and not too much!) and handling the ball well, not bad. Cory Joseph (Pacers) is shooting well with a 2:1 asst:to. Combined with Darren Collison, the Pacers are getting really good PG play. James Johnson (Heat) has been one of my favorite players to watch for a few years now and he's still good with the ball and shooting well. Rudy Gay (Spurs) is kinda reminding me of LaMarcus Aldridge with more handle. (Listen: I still think Aldridge is underappreciated in San Antonio and can be the center of the offense and with Gay mimicking him off the bench, I think the Spurs can keep this vibe going all year; though it seems like Dejounte Murray has regressed). TJ McConnell (Sixers) is another one of my favorite players to watch, so much energy, that dude just never stops moving. Solid asst:to but doesn't add a lot of points. Spencer Dinwidder (Nets) still with an impressive 70:14 asst:to. Andre Iguodala (Warriors) has a terrific asst:to, good rebound numbers and is clearly a trusted cog of an amazing machine, but, man, his 3PT shooting is unbelievably awful (4-22, yeech!) and is only averaging 1FTA. Doug McDermott (Knicks) and Kyle Korver (Cavs) have similar numbers and are both shooting really well (indeed, I'd say their success each has a lot to do with their teams' success). McDermott takes too many 2PT shots. Shelvin Mack (Magic) has 70:15 asst:to and double digit steals (not shooting particularly well though). Ish Smith (Pistons) 56:18 and shooting at a good %.
Coach
Brad Stevens (Celtics)
The Celtics are still tops in the East and leading the league in Opponents' PPG thanks to a game plan that works and a rotation that knows what its supposed to do.
Executive
Danny Ainge (Celtics)....hmm, that was easy.
Up to 72 debuts in the NBA this year. 3 more this week: Matt Csotello (Spurs), CJ Williams (Clippers), Furkan Korkmaz (Sixers).
Only 1 rookie currently above 30MPG, 15PPG, 9RPG, 7APG, 70 total FTA, 20 total Steals: Ben Simmons (Sixers). (One suggestion: Ben, work on your FT shooting, it's good for developing your jumper and it's where a lot of your points are going to come. You're not fulfilling your full awesomeness til you start knocking down some gimmes)
Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Dennis Smith (Mavs), Lonzo Ball (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz) are having fine seasons and John Collins (Hawks) and Kyle Kuzma (Lakers) are legitimately joining the rookie buzz.
MVP
As of now 5 legit candidates: James Harden (Rockets), DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans), Lebron James (Cavs), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) and Ben Simmons (Sixers). (Yeah, I said it)
DPOY
Among the league leaders in Defensive Rebounds, Steals and Blocks: DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans), Andre Drummond (Pistons), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) and Anthony Davis (Pelicans). Throw in Lebron James (Cavs) and Rudy Gobert (Jazz) and that would seem to round out the candidates so far.
6th Man
Kyle Kuzma (Lakers) is a pretty good rebounder off the bench, reliable shooter close to the basket (kinda disappointing 3P% at the moment). Will Barton (Nuggets) is shooting well from 3PT and 2PT (though strangely mediocre from FT), 2:1 Asst:TO rate. Kelly Oubre (Wizards) shoots well off the bench and pretty good rebounder too (though not terribly noteworthy on defense or as a ball handler). Terry Rozier (Celtics), sure handed with the ball, decent rebounder (though not scoring particularly well). Marco Belinelli (Hawks) is tearing it up from 3PT and the FT, excellent Asst:TO, the kind of reliable vet off the bench that every coach dreams of. Tyreke Evans (Grizzlies), shooting at a good % and taking care of the ball. Jonathon Simmons (Magic), more turnovers then you'd like off the bench but scoring well. Lou Williams (Lakers) is shooting well (and not too much!) and handling the ball well, not bad. Cory Joseph (Pacers) is shooting well with a 2:1 asst:to. Combined with Darren Collison, the Pacers are getting really good PG play. James Johnson (Heat) has been one of my favorite players to watch for a few years now and he's still good with the ball and shooting well. Rudy Gay (Spurs) is kinda reminding me of LaMarcus Aldridge with more handle. (Listen: I still think Aldridge is underappreciated in San Antonio and can be the center of the offense and with Gay mimicking him off the bench, I think the Spurs can keep this vibe going all year; though it seems like Dejounte Murray has regressed). TJ McConnell (Sixers) is another one of my favorite players to watch, so much energy, that dude just never stops moving. Solid asst:to but doesn't add a lot of points. Spencer Dinwidder (Nets) still with an impressive 70:14 asst:to. Andre Iguodala (Warriors) has a terrific asst:to, good rebound numbers and is clearly a trusted cog of an amazing machine, but, man, his 3PT shooting is unbelievably awful (4-22, yeech!) and is only averaging 1FTA. Doug McDermott (Knicks) and Kyle Korver (Cavs) have similar numbers and are both shooting really well (indeed, I'd say their success each has a lot to do with their teams' success). McDermott takes too many 2PT shots. Shelvin Mack (Magic) has 70:15 asst:to and double digit steals (not shooting particularly well though). Ish Smith (Pistons) 56:18 and shooting at a good %.
Coach
Brad Stevens (Celtics)
The Celtics are still tops in the East and leading the league in Opponents' PPG thanks to a game plan that works and a rotation that knows what its supposed to do.
Executive
Danny Ainge (Celtics)....hmm, that was easy.
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