Wild Card Round
Seahawks 23-41 Niners
I thought the Niners would dominate the 1st half, then the Seahawks would get some garbage time action to make the score look respectable. Well, the Niners were fine in the 1st half, moved the ball well, put points on the board; but somehow based on one good drive, one unexpected big play that caught the Niners napping and a nice final 2-minute drive to steal an FG, somehow the Seahawks were up 17-16 at the half. Then the Niners D stepped up, the Seahawks couldn't convert at all and once the Niners started scoring, it felt like they were never going to stop. So in the end, a dominant Niners W (and one last valiant effort from the overachieving Seahawks) but not the commanding performance I expected.
Chargers 30-31 Jaguars
The Chargers jumped out to a 27-0 lead largely because Trevor Lawrence couldn't help but give the ball away. But once Lawrence stopped making it easy for the Chargers, the Chargers just didn't know what to do anymore and squandered a mighty lead as the Jags just kept coming. Disappointing performance by the Chargers, how that coach still has his job is a mystery (he is one of the only people in all of celebrity-dom where I openly applaud the slings and arrows he suffers--he deserves them because he makes it harder for his team to win, which is the most unforgivable sin in all of sports), but somehow not unexpected. The Jags have been playing well for the last 8 weeks or so, the coach-QB combo is really starting to look like a winner. Hard to see how they hang with either the Chiefs, Bills and/or Bengals, but they look good to go for next fall and that's not bad.
Dolphins 31-34 Bills
The Bills have had the problem all season of dominating the 1st half, then taking the 2nd half off. Here they played well in the 1st and 3rd quarters, while fighting the refs in the 2nd (can't recall one team having so many flukey reviewable-ish plays in a row) and just kinda holding on in the 4th. Not an inspiring performance, but this team can put up 34 points and win a playoff game while playing not very good for most of it. Is this their wake up call or do they think they're ready to take out the Bengals? The Dolphins made the most of the lackadaisical Bills play and had moments of wicked D and passable offense; but, honestly, how they scored 31 points is an enigma. This team was not near its best coming into the game and didn't play particularly well (Waddle dropped a big play ball that hit him in the chest on the very first pass of the game--this team did not bring its best effort), so how they managed to make this a game deep into the 4th quarter is something the Bills really ought to take a look at. (Or we can just notch it up to being a division game with all the idiosyncrasy that suggests)
Giants 31-24 Vikings
I poo-poohed the notion that because the Vikings were good in one-score games this year that that automatically meant they would lose their next one-score game, which was the sharp play last week. I stand by my reasoning (and continue throwing poo at the opposite reasoning) but I failed to acknowledge how good that Giant offense actually is. They moved the ball with confidence throughout and really put it on a mediocre (at best) Vikings defense. That said, the Vikings hung around and had their chances late but just couldn't get the ball to Justin Jefferson (seems like he was the one dimension of their one-dimensional offense), so they were still in play to steal it. But kudos to the Giants for bringing the offensive game plan that ate up clock and the defensive good sense to lock up Jefferson. Good W for the Giants, another tough playoff L for the Vikings.
Ravens 17-24 Bengals
Felt like it was gonna be a sludgefest, but the Bengals scored on their first two drives, felt like they had unlocked the Ravens. But then it steady became the sludgefest we expected. Late in the 4th, tied at 17, the Ravens were at the 2-yard line (not the 1-yard line, mind you), when QB Huntley tried to dive over the pile on the sneak, waved the ball ahead of him, did not get it to the goalline but did get it knocked away, which went right to LB Hubbard, who ran it 98 yards for the go-ahead score. The Ravens had another chance but it was over, the momentum was irretrievable, and the Bengals were able to salt it away. (Huntley, my man, if you score that TD, your whole career is different) The Ravens were able to hang even with a backup QB, they didn't dominate but they didn't get dominated by the Bengals, and they really could've won. Good game, memorable game, and like the Bills above, is this the wake up call the Bengals needed or a harbinger of slippage?
Cowboys 31-14 Bucs
Yeah, this game was every bit as lame as I expected it to be. The Bucs just weren't good this year, they've pretty much sucked since September and only made it this far by being in the worst division in the league. The Cowboys were the better team in every way and while there was the possibility that they would gack it up in Tampa, the Bucs just didn't give them anything to gack on. I expect Tom Brady to play next year but not with the Bucs (how come no one is talking Commanders? Pretty good squad that just needs a QB, right?). As for the Cowboys, well, they did what they were supposed to do, now they're on to San Francisco.
Division Round
Jaguars @ Chiefs (-9.5) (o/u 52.5)
The Jags play hard and after last week's furious comeback, I expect them to play hard right to the end and make the most of this found money. And the Chiefs all year long have played close games, allowing lesser teams to hang around. Is there a chance the Chiefs overthink this and let this game get away? Uh, yeah, that can happen. I like the Jags to play them close (whether its the Chiefs winning it late or the Jags scoring in garbage time) but I expect the Chiefs to put more points on the board. The Chiefs are still really good, Mahomes is still the man and all that, but they're hardly unbeatable (just ask the Bengals). I don't think it catches up to the Chiefs this week, but I still say they don't cover. I'll say Chiefs 31-27 (Jags and the Over)
Giants @ Eagles (-8) (o/u 48)
The Giants won't be afraid of the Eagles and if they can do to Philly what they did to Minnesota, then they could eat enough clock to steal a W. The Eagles haven't played well in a while, the curse of the dominant division winner, so is playing a familiar opponent a good or bad thing? Well, I think the Eagles will be just fine, I like their offense to adapt to the Giants and I know Philly's D is better than Minnesota's, so I'd be surprised if the Giants can control the ball the way they did last week. I was going to say that I like the Giants to keep the game close and I don't think it will be a high scoring game, but now I think the Giants offense will be whipped by the 4th quarter, so the Eagles might finish this off before it gets to the 2-minute drill. I was gonna go Giants but now I'm thinking Eagles. I'll say Eagles 28-17 (Eagles and the Under)
Bengals @ Bills (-6) (o/u 49)
Okay, game of the year, the game we were expecting a coupla weeks ago (before Damar Hamlin decided we needed a Monday thinking of things more important than football). The Bengals have won 9 straight (oh, the Bills have won 8 straight) and are playing really well, but injuries to the OL could be a sticky wicket for them; the Bills overpowered 14 of their 17 opponents this season (hmmm, honestly you could say that the Jets were the only team to hang a for-real L on this squad this year) but we're down to the quarterfinals now and the Bills defense just isn't up to snuff compared to the remaining teams. That requires Josh Allen to be perfect from here on out and if he's up to it, the Bills can still be the best team; but if he falters at all and he makes it easy on the opposing defense, that's gonna put more pressure on the Bills D that it can bear. The Bengals might be the better team but I'm not totally convinced. I think this is a FG game, the last team to score will likely be the winner. Bills are at home, they got the Hamlin vibe and the big play offense is capable of hanging with anyone. That said, -6 is too damn high--it opened at 3.5, which was too high even then! Gotta take the Bengals to cover. I'll say Bills 34-31 (Bengals and the Over)
Cowboys @ Niners (-4) (o/u 46.5)
I like the Cowboys, at their best they can move the ball and get stops; at their worst, though, the offense stalls and the defense has to do too much. I think the Niners have the better offense and probably the better defense, too. At home, I expect them to get all the luck and that's all just too much for the Cowboys. The Cowboys are nice but not great, but this Niners team might be really really good (yes, even with Brock Purdy!). I gotta go Niners 28-13 (Niners and the Under)
No comments:
Post a Comment