Seahawks @ Niners (-9.5) (o/u 42)
(Division game) Tough to beat the same team three times in a season but I think the Niners are just flat out better in every way than the Seahawks and I expect them to come out strong, build up a nice lead and sit on it. I like the Niners to score plenty and I would expect the Seahawks to have some 2nd half garbage time points but I think this game will be over quickly and decisively. I'll say Niners 31-17 (Niners and the Over).
Chargers (-1.5) @ Jags (o/u 47)
The Chargers' best game is vastly superior to the Jags' best game, but while the ceiling is higher, the floor might be lower, so if the Chargers do a bunch of dumb Charger shit, the Jags can definitely hang around and steal this. The Jags have been pretty good for the last 6 weeks or so but they're completely green and not as all-around talented as the Chargers. I'd love to think the Chargers are gonna bring their A-game and drop a bomb on the Jags, but I think this will be a close game. I like the Chargers to be up late (but I wouldn't be shcoked if the Jags stole it). I'll say Chargers 24-20 (Chargers and the Under).
Dolphins @ Bills (-13.5) (o/u 43.5)
(Division game) These teams have already played twice this year; in the first game (in Miami), the Bills outplayed the Dolphins in every way imaginable....except the scoreboard, where the Dolphins stole the W. Then just a few weeks ago (in Buffalo), the Bills got a nice halftime lead and then frittered away the 2nd half and the Tua-led Dolphins made a real game of it. So, they both played well in each other's buildings but lost. If the Dolphins were bringing their full squad, I'd give them a puncher's chance; but without Tua, other injuries on defense, I don't give the Dolphins must chance at all to score. The Bills will run up points but the Dolphins just will not be able to hang. All year long the Bills have played well in the 1st half and then done nothing in the 2nd half and while I'd like to think that is the regular season plan and in the playoffs we can expect a full 60 minutes from the Bills, this new strategy might not start til next week. So I expect the Bills to be up big at halftime and if Tua was in play, the Dolphins might get back into it, but he's not, so I think the Bills will comfortably fritter the 2nd half of this game. I'll say Bills 31-9 (Bills and the Under).
Giants @ Vikings (-3) (o/u 48)
Okay, this is one where everyone is predicting upset but I gotta say the logic is all wrong. The Vikings are 12-0 in one-score games (1-4 in larger spreads) and the thinking is the Vikings won't keep that streak up forever; I agree, I'm thinking next year that'll go away. But since they started this year 12-0, why are you expecting them to not go 13-0? If these numbers are so important, then why is the 13th game the one that will turn the deviation? I say quit looking at the W's, look at the L's: they lose because they get blown out. So can the Giants blow out the Vikings? Oh, god, no! The Giants are a nice team, but they are a grinding team with a little bit of magic to them, they are built to steal a close game--too bad they're going up against the best close-game team of all time! Do you see where I'm going with this? The syllogism looks like this: The Vikings win close game, the Vikings-Giants game will be close, therefore (x) will win? Why are you trying to say "Giants"? Listen, next week the Vikings will go to San Francisco; the Niners are a team that can blow out the Vikings and that is how the Vikings will lose: in a blowout to a better team. Not in a close game to a lesser team. The Giants will not blow out the Vikings and the Vikings will understand that early and deeply and they will secure the 2nd half and choke the Giants out. I'll say Vikings 21-10 (Vikings and Under).
Ravens @ Bengals (-8.5) (o/u 40.5)
(Division game) These two teams just played last week, Bengals won comfortably. Again: hard to beat the same team thrice in a season but I think the Bengals are the better team, they're playing better and while I think the Ravens have the defense to slow the Bengals down, they do not have the offense to outscore the Bengals. I can see this one being close, the Ravens will play tough, make this hard and hang around. I can't see the Bengals losing this game but I can see them trying to get by with less effort and slogging their way through a harder-than-it-needs-to-be kinda game. I'll say Bengals 24-16 (Ravens and Under).
Cowboys (-2.5) @ Bucs (o/u 45.5)
Tough to call because I can see either of these teams playing great and I can see either of them playing horribly, so all conceivable possible outcomes are in play. I've watched the Bucs several times this year (including against the Cowboys in Week 1) and I think their defense is not particularly good, the O-line is nothing special, the running game doesn't work and the special teams aren't notable. The Cowboys are good--not great--at just about everything on the field, but they are quite capable of losing focus and looking just godawful on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys are the vastly better team but they can play terrible; the Bucs aren't really good at much but they've got Tom Brady and he is absolutely capable of getting hot and scoring a shit ton of points outta nowhere. I'll stick with the Cowboys just playing better in a relatively close contest. I'll say Cowboys 27-20 (Cowboys and the Over).
No comments:
Post a Comment