Raiders @ Bengals (-6.5) (o/u 48)
The Raiders got crazy mojo and QB Carr has shown himself to be the most underappreciated player of the last decade. They are feisty, they play hard and when they get rolling, they can hang (they are what the Detroit Lions dream of being, no?). But that doesn't really mean they're good. And I think the ride comes to a crashing halt this weekend. The Bengals offense is rolling right now, they know who they are and they may be early but they're here right now and I expect them to make the most of it. I believe that because of QB Burrow, that dude thinks about nothing but the next play (god help us if he ever gets to New England) and while the Raiders got moxy, the Bengals got weapons and they know how to use them. I like the Bengals to mercilessly pound the Raiders (creating a potentially ugly offseason for coach, QB and Defense). Bengals 38-17 (Bengals, over)
Patriots @ Bills (-4.5) (44)
Division game, man. These two already won on each other's home fields this year and know each other pretty well at this point. The weather will be bone-chilling, but both teams will be ready. QB Allen can be great but he can also try to do too much and flail; QB Jones is nice but he's a rookie and has yet to show the ability to make plays when needed. The head coaches are familiar with each other, the fan bases, the players, the owners--this is a division rival, they know each other. I think the Bills are better--but not wildly better--and I expect they'll outscore the Pats. But I don't see a blow out, this'll be a close game, probably low scoring. (If the Bills get a defensive TD, the game is over; if the Pats get a defensive TD, they will definitely cover but not necessarily win) Bills 16-13 (Pats, under)
Eagles @ Bucs (-8.5) (48.5)
I liked the Eagles more than most all season long, they just felt underrated to me. Trading Zach Ertz was a weird move, but they managed to make the playoffs anyway, so one must assume they are pleased with QB Hurts and are looking to spend their gajillion draft picks to build around him (though Hurts and two 1st rounders for Deshaun Watson must sound pretty tasty). But that doesn't mean they're ready to win now. The Bucs have lost a notable amount of offensive skill in the last few weeks (and Gronk, Evans and Fournette are not exactly 'healthy' right now), but I think Brady knows how to do this, he'll move the ball and they'll get enough stops on defense to keep the Eagles bottled up. Bucs 31-13 (Bucs, under)
Niners @ Cowboys (-3) (49.5)
Some of the more famous talking heads this week went all in on the Niners, suggesting the Renaissance of QB Jimmy G and how the Niners had been progressing and are ready to pull off an upset--even multiple upsets! But I think that's crazy talk. I think the Niners a nice midlevel team with a QB with a busted thumb and one all-world offensive threats that's also kinda banged up (Debo Samuel) and not much else. The Cowboys offense is rolling, I think they will move the ball and have big plays, I think they will score a lot. This gives the Defense the chance to gamble and make plays and I think they will. I think Jimmy G gives up the ball (if the Cowboys D scores, this game is way over). I think the Cowboys whomp the shit out of the Niners. Cowboys 41-10 (Cowboys, over)
Steelers @ Chiefs (-11.5) (46.5)
I watched the Steelers a lot this year and there is no way they deserve to be here and there is virtually zero chance of them winning this game. The Steelers have a knack for...I dunno...boring teams to a state of paralysis, which allows the Steelers to hang around and make plays to steal a W (as awful as QB Roethlisberger has been...for years now...he is still a crafty veteran). But I just don't see any scenario where the Chiefs don't move the ball or put points on the board. The Chiefs will score, and I think they'll score early, be up big at halftime, keep it up through the 3rd, then ease up late (though probably not enough for a backdoor cover). 11.5 is a lot but the Chiefs are going to score and the Steelers are not going to keep up. Chiefs 34-10 (Chiefs, under)
Cards @ Rams (-5) (50)
I have no idea. The Rams are really good on both sides of the ball and their best effort might be the best possible in the whole league; but they never give that much effort. The Cards have a sneaky knack for making the right play at the right time and stealing W's; but when they miss their chance, they flail badly and can look pretty awful. And it's a division game! I dunno, man. I'm going road underdog to sneak it out but all possible scenarios are in play (Rams big, Rams close, Cards big, Cards close). Cards 24-21 (Cards, under)
My end of season ranking:
(AFC) Chiefs, Bills, Pats, Bengals, Titans, Raiders, Steelers
(NFC) Packers, Cowboys, Bucs, Rams, Cards, Niners, Eagles
Projections:
Bengals over Raiders, Bills over Pats, Chiefs over Steelers; Bengals over Titans, Chiefs over Bills; Chiefs over Bengals
Cowboys over Niners, Bucs over Eagles, Cards over Rams; Packers over Cards, Cowboys over Bucs; Packers over Cowboys
I'll take the Chiefs over the Packers (in a disappointing low-scoring sludgefest of a contest) to win it all. We'll see.
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