Thursday, March 22, 2007

I'm a dog lover

Normally I don't look at the spreads in basketball but what the heck, there's only a handful of games left, let's live a little.

Kansas (-8.5) is the big favorite tonight. The Salukis can hang with the tough competition but I do not expect the Jayhawks to lose tonight. 8.5 could be tough against a good team that can run, I think I'll take Southern Illinois to be chucking up 3's at the end keeping it close. And I believe they'll both be running, scoring lots of points, so I'll take the over (125.5). Southern Illinois (+8.5) to cover and the over (125.5).

I'm a little surprised that Texas A&M is coming off as the favorite tonight against Memphis. Memphis hasn't lost in a few months now while A&M is a good solid team that has stumbled here and there throughout the season. A&M is getting credit for a tougher conference schedule? I don't know, that doesn't wash for me. You play who you play and Memphis beat most everybody they played this year. Memphis is loaded with long, lean athletes while A&M is driven by one star. I suspect the scoring will grind to a halt at times through a combination of tired legs and increasingly intense defense. I'll take Memphis (+2.5) to win and the under (134).

Its teacher (UCLA's Ben Howland) vs. pupil (Pitt's Jamie Dixon) tonight and to me they look pretty much the same. I had Pittsburgh in the Final Four but they don't seem like a team that finishes. Neither does UCLA. They both have top tier talent and coaching but neither team strikes fear (well, maybe for gamblers but not for Kansas Jayhawks). Scoring will come in spurts and won't be slowed by a foul fest at the end. When I can't tell the teams apart, I take the dog on a neutral floor. Pitt (+2.5) to win and the over (123).

Tennessee and Ohio State played earlier this year and the Buckeyes escaped with a close win. The Buckeyes are also everybody's favorite choice to fold and while I got them winning it all, they don't seem like world beaters so far, you know? I think this is where the Buckeyes right the ship and take the opportunity to face off against a solid opponent. That point is awful high (144) especially if the scoring dries up in a hail of free throws in the last few minutes. Hate to go against Chris Lofton (a great player) but I'll take the overall talent of Ohio State (-4) to win and cover and the under (144).

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