Wednesday, October 9, 2024

2024-25 NFL Season (Week 4 & 5)

Games I saw (some of): 
Bucs 30-36 (OT) Falcons
The Falcons rely too much of Kirk Cousins--you've got a for-real running game, why are passing 50 times a game with a guy that makes Drew Bledsoe look like Jackie Joyner-Kersey? Neither of these teams show much interest in defense but they can both move the ball. Pre-season, I liked the Falcons to be a nice surprise kinda team and I still believe that, but they need to balance up that offense and tighten up that defense if they expect to take even this bizarro division. The Bucs are okay, they move the ball, they shouldn't be taken lightly and yet I still never expect them to win. 

Ravens 41-38 (OT) Bengals
I got a hot take: the Ravens defense is not particularly any good. This is not the hard-nosed Ravens D that we've seen for decades, this team is soft in the secondary and not that effective against the run. They can get gashed again and again, so good for them that their offense can put points on the board. As for the Bengals, well....likewise. The offense is coming around and their gonna be tough to stop most weeks but their defense doesn't stop anybody and if the offense turns it over or misses a FG, their D is in serious trouble. The Ravens are good enough to challenge in the AFC but I don't think the Bengals are gonna do much this season. 


The rest of the slate: 
Jets 17-23 Vikings. Yeah, that looks about right. The Jets really just haven't shown anything on either side of the ball yet, but their division is pretty awful, so they're not out of it yet.

Panthers 10-36 Bears. The Panthers are terrible. The Bears are at least moving in the right direction. 

Dolphins 15-10 Patriots. These are two worst teams in the NFL. I'd be shocked if they're not both picking top 4 in the 2025 draft. 

Colts 34-37 Jags. You ever notice that even when the Jags win, they still don't look right?

Bills 20-23 Texans. Feels like the Bills let this one slip away late. Good W for the Texans.

Raiders 18-34 Broncos. I kinda like the Broncos. I kinda the Raiders are terrible. 

Cards 24-23 Niners. The Niners are struggling and I don't understand why. The Cards are sneaky but not great. 

Packers 24-19 Rams. The Rams just aren't good enough in the O-line or D-line to matter much this season, it seems. The Packers should be better, but a nice W on the road. 

Giants 29-20 Seahawks. Why is the Seahawks home field advantage never much of an advantage for them? How did the Giants get better after getting rid of any/all good players? It feels like they're trying to tank and the players just keep accidentally winning. 

Cowboys 20-17 Steelers. The Cowboys are sloppy, should be better. The Steelers work hard and get lucky but I'm not sure how good they actually are. 

Saints 13-26 Chiefs. What happened that offensive explosion the Saints unleashed in the first 2 weeks? Nice steady game plan victory for the Chiefs.


Week 4
Games I saw (some of):
Cowboys 20-15 Giants
The Giants aren't a disaster, not quite good enough to beat good teams but not bad. The Cowboys have moments where that offense is in control and then moments where they look totally befuddled, I don't get this team at all.

Steelers 24-27 Colts
I'm still skeptical of the Steelers, the D is pretty good (but not that great) and the offense has moments but mostly sputters. But when QB Joe Flacco puts the cape on, that's good enough to brush the Steelers aside. So....why doesn't Flacco just play all the time for the Colts? Why do they leave the QB that can get wins on the bench for emergencies only?

Bengals 34-24 Panthers
Okay, so Cincy can beat the Panthers. Not overwhelming but they were the better team. That's good to know because I think the Panthers are probably the worst team in the league. 

Chiefs 17-10 Chargers
Another week, another just enough QB Mahomes performance. The Chargers are the Chargers, man: good when they feel like it, brutally awful the rest of the time. I'm still skeptical of the Chiefs, but they are the same team that won 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, so.....

Bills 10-35 Ravens
The Bills were down 21-10 in the 3rd quarter, they were driving nicely, when QB Allen got outside the pocket, couldn't get the pass off, fumbled and lost the ball. The Ravens quickly converted the turnover into a TD and that was that. My point is: the Bills were in this game and if a coupla plays had gone different, they may have even won. But this is purely Josh Allen's team and they will go as far he can drag them. The Ravens are looking good, but I still feel like they're not a complete team. 

Seahawks 29-42 Lions
Jared Goff threw a perfect game--no incomplete passes all night. The Lions offense is looking good right now. The Seahawks are....I dunno what they are. 


The rest of the slate:
Saints 24-26 Falcons. Division game, home team wins, sounds right to me. 

Rams 18-24 Bears. The Rams are gonna lose like this week no matter who the play, right? The Bears offense is heating up. 

Vikings 31-29 Packers. Vikings built big lead, almost gave it away. If the Packers figure it out, they can still be pretty good. 

Broncos 10-9 Jets. Yipes! Are the Jets ever gonna get going? The Bronco is real. 

Eagles 16-33 Bucs. What is up with the Eagles? Do they hate their coach? The Bucs are a trick or treat team but their good weeks look pretty good. 

Jags 20-24 Texans. Division game, home team prevails, looks right to me. 

Commanders 42-14 Cards. The Commanders offensive renaissance looks to be for real. The Cards are up and down.

Pats 13-30 Niners. The Pats are working their way to a top 5 pick. The Niners still aren't there yet but a nice biscuit from the Pats is nice. 

Browns 16-20 Raiders. The Browns are stuck with QB Watson and until they get out from under his brutal contract, this team is going nowhere. The Raiders are not good, but they handled the Browns. 

Titans 31-12 Dolphins. The Titans aren't good but the Dolphins are aiming for a top 5 pick.

Monday, October 7, 2024

2024-25 NCAA (Week 6)

Games I watched (some of): 
None. All baseball all weekend...no regrets.

Top 25
Handled their business
(3) Ohio State, (5) Georgia, (6) Oregon, (7) Penn State, (12) Mississippi, (15) Clemson, (16) Iowa State, (21) Boise State, (23) Indiana, (25) Texas A&M

Won but did not impress
(8) Miami. I dunno, I didn't think they'd cover against Cal, but to have to scramble late to steal the victory is not as impressive as it should be. If Miami is truly a top 10 squad they should be able to go on the road in conference (conference? Miami and Berkeley....in the same....conference? Oh right: conferences don't mean anything any more), and get a decisive victory against a team that isn't nearly as good. That said, everyone else in college football lost this weekend, so I presume Miami will be top 6, no?

Bad beat
(9) Missouri. The fact that this is a "bad beat" rather than "not so good" is adding insult to injury: this team was never a top 10 squad and the fact they got de-stroyed at A&M is all you need to know. Missouri is a middle of the pack SEC squad, not top tier.

Not so good (oof! This category is packed this week!)
(1) Alabama. Well well well....well well well...let's just say I'm glad I'm not an emergency room intern in Tuscaloosa because the amount of trauma this weekend would've surely been overwhelming. Look, man, losing at Vandy is enough of a blow, but, dude, Bama was NEVER in this game! They got STOMPED by Vandy! Still top 12 but, man, an L to Vandy is gonna be hard to wipe off.
For those of you that don't get college sports, there are dudes on the Vandy side that will never have to buy their own drinks again in Nashville...like, for life. 

(4) Tennessee. Well, I was all in on UT but they did not look good at any point in this Arkansas game. Not the end of the world to lose on the road in conference but I thought they were better than that (perhaps "parity" is coming to college ball). Still in my top 12 and there's a lot of season left. 
(10) Michigan. Yeah, I was never in on the Wolverines this season, they've got a lot to live up to and a lot of turnover. Not a bad team, but not a top 12 side. 
(11) Southern Cal. Not sure they deserve to get completely bounced from the top 25 (especially in a week when so many ranked schools went down), but flailing in Minnesota does not win over hardened hearts. That said, I still think I like this team and I think they'll be back. 
(22) Louisville. Meh. The Cards are a nice team but not particularly top 25-ish, so I wouldn't be surprised to not see them back for the rest of the season. 
(25) UNLV. Hardly knew ye, Rebels, but when you get handled at home by Syracuse, it suggests to me that you don't belong in the top 25. 

Next week's intriguing matches:
(1) Texas v (18) Oklahoma (@ Dallas) (this isn't a vintage OU squad but sticking it to UT might change that)
(4) Penn State @ Southern Cal (after SC lost at Minnesota this feels like an afterthought, but this is where Southern Cal claws back their season or the Nittany Lions cement their top 5 status)
Arizona @ (14) Brigham Young (BYU has overperformed so far, Arizona has underperformed, is this the week it flips?)
(2) Ohio State @ (3) Oregon (here we go, best non-SEC game of the year?)
(9) Mississippi @ (13) Louisiana State (loser leaves town match in the SEC)
(11) Iowa State @ West Virginia (WVU ain't bad, if the Cyclones fancy themselves a playoff team, they'll need to get a good W here)
(18) Kansas State @ Colorado (the Buffaloes are a mystery to me but everyone'll be watching this one, so the Wildcats need a positive performance)

I tried to do a top 12 last week and I only came up with 8 teams--and 2 of them lost this week! So I'm gonna wait another week before I start forecasting my top 12. 

Monday, September 30, 2024

2024-25 NCAA Football (Week 5)

Games I watched (some of):

(2) Georgia 34-41 (4) Alabama

Okay, hard to imagine there's going to be a better game in NCAA this year. This game had all the thrills, the chills, the ups and downs, backs and forths. Alabama dominated the 1st half, I thought QB Millroe was amazing, truly in control against a defense that has been smothering planet Earth for half a decade, Bama moved the ball with ease and ran up the offense quickly. Too much too soon, it appears, because UGA dominated the 2nd half (and, yes, I thought Bama contributed mightily to the comeback by slacking off), even took the lead, forcing Bama to steal it back, and then the game ended with UGA coming up just short on another comeback. I thought QB Beck was brutal in the 1st half but made some real plays after halftime and the UGA offense in general came alive, too, this Bama offense might be suddenly revitalized by this. I fully expect UGA to still be around by season's end. Millroe is probably the top of the Heisman pool just like that and wouldn't be surprised if Bama was back at #1 on Monday. Still a lot of season left. 

Kentucky 20-17 (6) Mississippi

Ole Miss was lined up for a big season: returning QB everyone loves, a good collection of veterans on both sides and an SEC schedule that dodges Alabama, A&M and Missouri (and catches Oklahoma, LSU and Florida in vulnerable positions). But you cannot--REPEAT: CANNOT!--lose to Kentucky. Especially at home. A sluggish game, which was the first clue that Kentucky was in it, felt like Ole Miss was the better team but also felt like UK might keep them down. Also, UK's offense was not bad, it was consistent and ate up enough clock that Ole Miss's woes were magnified. A coupla plays: a long bomb on 4th down that set up the fumble recovery to the end zone and next thing you know, the Wildcats are stealing it away from the Rebels. Then Ole Miss goes wide left on the tying FG and suddenly, there's no OT, just a big ol' L. Now the Rebels have to go to South Carolina, not gonna be easy, they better get their offense back pronto. I don't know if Ole Miss vanilla-ed their offense or just had a bad day, but they need to pull out all stops from here on (and beating Georgia would be nice, too) and that starts next week. As for UK, they've got a good L (Georgia) and a good W (@Mississippi), I dunno, that's not bad for UK, but I'm not forecasting wins at Knoxville or Austin.

(19) Illinois 7-21 (9) Penn State

This was pure sludge. Each team scored a confident early TD, then not much happened outside of missed FG's all over the place, until Penn State (sorta) blew it open late. Penn State has a serious meatgrinder of a defense but that offense still isn't overpowering (re: the Buckeyes have a real pain in the ass game coming, but they should win), so puncher's chance against the top tier is the best I can give them. The Illini are nice but they're not gonna beat the tippity top teams. 

(21) Oklahoma 27-21 Auburn

Auburn came out hot, but once the Sooners put it together, they flew past the Tigers. This is not a vintage Auburn side. The Sooners aren't great either, but I think they're pretty good and going in the right direction.


Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Texas, (3) Ohio State, (4) Alabama, (8) Oregon, (9) Penn State, (13) Southern Cal, (14) Louisiana State, (16) Notre Dame, (17) Clemson, (18) Iowa State, (21) Oklahoma, (22) Brigham Young, (23) Kansas State, (25) Boise State


Won but did not impress

(7) Miami. I always think of Friday night as the show-off spot and if Miami was better than Va.Tech, they really should've come in louder and prouder here. They did well to claw back the W but they had a good shot at a convincing thumping and they did not do that. 

(12) Michigan. Finishing off a conference foe usually impresses me, but Michigan is ranked too high to not dispatch Minnesota decisively. Being the defending nat'l champs is a major burden for this squad, remaining in the playoff chase is not gonna be easy. 

(24) Texas A&M. I dunno, man, grudge match with Arkansas shouldn't faze me but the Aggies just don't look that strong to me. Their schedule is gonna start delivering body blows from here. 


Bad beat

(2) Georgia. I ain't worried about UGA, they are still firmly in the top 12, still in for a shot at top 4. And as weird as this game was, I think there's some good stuff for UGA in there, this could be a real shot in the arm for this squad. 

(15) Louisville. Came up short on the road. Played well, would've been nice to get the W in South Bend. 

(19) Illinois. Penn State just choked this offense out. The Illini are nice but the Nittany Lions got a killer D. 

(20) Oklahoma State. Yikes! The Cowboys still have opportunities on their schedule but they got obliterated in Manhattan, suggesting that K State is the stealth power in this conference. 


Not so good

(6) Mississippi. You don't understand: losing to Kentucky is two losses at once. Bad L, disappointing home conference L, but, man....it was Kentucky!

(10) Utah. Getting trucked by an Arizona team that has not looked good this season is a surprising outcome. At home, they were never in this game. 


Next week's intriguing matches (huh, a whole slate of games that seemed like they would sound great, like, 3 months ago--looking at you, Clemson-Florida State! Instead, this NCAA's helpful reminder to clean out your garage and winterize the lawn mower. I'm cool with it, I need a baseball weekend):

(9) Missouri @ (25) Texas A&M (dang, even this one seems tarnished already but they are both ranked, so it'll make a difference)

(12) Mississippi @ South Carolina (interesting to see how Ole Miss bounces back from a disappointing home loss and whether the Gamecocks can get back on track with a good W)

Sunday, September 29, 2024

2024-25 NFL (Week 3)

Games I saw (some of): 
Patriots 3-24 Jets
This is the Aaron Rodgers Jets squad we thought we were getting last year! Man, they look so good in their scoring drives, Rodgers throwing darts, moving in pocket, hitting receivers on the run. And they had the running game going, the O-line looked great, and the defense did everything they needed to do. This is the scary Jets, the peak Jets. Can they keep this up? Well, they don't get to play the Pats every week, so probably not. The Pats were not good at anything, did not move the ball at all, even gave a taste test to rookie QB Maye (I had actually already turned the game off by that time, so I didn't see him), and their D stopped nothing at all. This is the Pats we thought we'd be getting this year. So, this game was peak Jets versus predictably awful Pats.

Packers 30-14 Titans
Man, call me crazy but I really liked QB Malik Willis in this game! He made the right throws, he ran when needed, he handled himself just fine against a physical defense. Throw in that his D got him a pick-6 and that was pretty much it for the Titans. The Titans are a weird team: I like their pass rush, their D-line is solid, and QB Levis is not a total disaster, he can move the ball a little, but his mistakes are crushers. I feel like the Titans will cover some spreads and by the year's end might actually win some games they're not supposed to win--I'm not saying they're good, I'm just saying they're not all the way bad. Meanwhile, the Packers are racking up W's with their backup, I'd give him another week and let QB Love get right before bringing him back. I like the Packers on both sides of the ball and I think when Love comes back, they might be really good. 

Chargers 10-20 Steelers
Sludge game, but both teams had moments of offense within a sea of D-line sludgery. I like this Steelers teams more than I expected to, I guess I assumed they would have to start QB Russell Wilson (done for a while now and not at all a Steelers kinda guy) instead of QB Justin Fields (I still like his upside and he's a Buckeye, he's got some Steel in him) and that defensive injuries would eventually doom this squad. Defensive injuries may catch up to this side but they have wisely chosen Fields over Wilson (on his way to Miami....?) and that is the beginning of a good vibe in Pittsburgh. The Chargers, on the other hand....well....they're the Chargers, man. They have moments of looking awesome and then Bosa gets hurts or they fumble on 3rd down and that's that. Coach Harbaugh will make a difference but it might take a while--the fine folks of Michigan were wise to give him a second contract and it may take that kind of wisdom in LA, too. 

Ravens 28-25 Cowboys
Ravens came to play. Two weeks in a row now where the Cowboys got blitzed and the game was over before they even got the sleep out of their eyes. Weird thing, though: I don't think the Cowboys suck, they've just gotten ninja-fucked back to back weeks and its putting a real dent on their record. The Ravens were in must-win mode and they blasted right out of the gate and again out of halftime. Honestly, I tuned out when the Ravens went up 28-6 in the 3rd quarter, so I missed most of the Cowboy comeback, but I don't think I missed much. The Cowboys really need to take more care in the opening drives but otherwise I think they're pretty good (one disturbing trend, though, going back to last year: DE Micha Parsons is starting to get disappeared in games, I think teams have kinda figured out how to use his aggressiveness against him and schemed him out; he's still great but he needs to figure some things out) and I think that offense will win plenty of games this season. As for the Ravens, well, they've kinda sucked so far, they needed this win, we'll see if they can keep the winning vibe. 

Chiefs 22-17 Falcons
Dang, Falcons....you had so many chances to win this game.... The Chiefs are what we thought they were: Patrick Mahomes and a bunch of dudes. Hey, man, the Patriots won Super Bowls with Tom Brady and a bunch of dudes, but that was a tough way to go and as great as Mahomes is, even he is starting to look a little sideways to me. At the end of the 1st half, Mahomes had two plays in a row that made me go 'wtf was that?' So even Mahomes doesn't look as top dawg-ish as usual and that D is built to make mistakes. The story of this game was Atlanta's crumbling O-line and how long it takes QB Cousins to get the ball out. When Cousins is upright, he can be the man on this team; but the second he starts running for his life, this team is dead. The Falcons blew this game twice in the 4th quarter (and it's worth remembering that Mahomes, too, had chances to put this one away and he couldn't get 1st downs, either), nail-biting in a way, but frustrating mediocrity all around in another. 

Commanders 38-33 Bengals
The Bengals offense looks good, their D does not. Likewise, with the Commanders. But the Commanders got TD's, the Bengals got FG's. That was pretty much that. QB Daniels big bust out game, love to see him keep it going. QB Burrow looked good, too, but not good enough. The two teams are probably identical--but while this is a godsend for the Commanders, it is a calamity for the Bengals.


The rest of the slate:
Giants 21-15 Browns. Man, the Browns gotta figure out what to o ith QB Watson or this season is already over.

Bears 16-21 Colts. Two Clouseau-esque squads, I'm guessing one of these teams will be pretty good by season's end....not sure which one. 

Texans 7-34 Vikings. Man, Vikings came to play, Texans did not. 

Eagles 15-12 Saints. I kinda wish I'd watched this one and then again maybe I'm glad I missed it. Seems like the Saints offense is now back to earth, seems like the Eagles are back to being a defense-first team, which is probably a good idea.

Broncos 26-7 Bucs. Nice win for the Broncos, but where did the Bucs go on this day?

Panthers 36-22 Raiders. Break up the Panthers! Welp, turns out QB Bryce Young is in fact responsible for all of the Panthers' awful-ness so far this season.

Dolphins 3-24 Seahawks. The Dolphins are in a bad way right now.

Niners 24-27 Rams. The Niners had this, let it get away. This Rams team is not one to sleep on, they are classic old guy Charles Bronson just waiting to get disrespected by the wrong clueless idiot. 

Lions 20-13 Cards. The Lions are good but it would behoove them to actually be good every week instead of just getting by and getting lucky. The Cards have a nice offense, not so nice defense, it appears. 

Jags 10-47 Bills. The Jags are sagging, the Bills are riding QB Josh Allen til his body completely breaks down (probably the right choice). 

Monday, September 23, 2024

2024-25 NCAA Football (Week 4)

Games I saw (some of):

(24) Illinois 31-24 (OT) (22) Nebraska

Fun game! I felt like Nebraska was the better team for the most part but they couldn't keep the momentum. On the other side, the Illini made plays late to keep the game going and then to seal the victory. Good road W for the Illini, disappointing showing for the newly returned to the top 25 Huskers. 

(11) Southern Cal 24-27 (18) Michigan

Southern Cal started slow, took forever to move the ball and they didn't get stops on Michigan in the 1st half. Michigan's defense is legit but I think their offense is kinda rickety and for the Trojans to let them move the ball so effectively particularly before halftime, was a disappointing showing. Felt like the Trojans had righted ship after halftime, that offense was much more effective, but the D could not get stops down the stretch and one big run basically blew open the game for the Wolverines. Credit Michigan for playing hard and sticking to their game plan late, but Southern Cal is the better team and really should've won this match.

UCLA 17-34 (16) Louisiana State

Kept waiting for LSU to rise up and put their stamp on this game and after halftime, that's kinda what happened. But they let this anemic UCLA attack have much too much success moving the ball early on and the Tigers even had trouble finishing drives. LSU is clearly, easily, the better team and really could've/should've poured it on the Bruins. I am convinced that UCLA is not particularly good, still not sure what to make of LSU, some real ups and downs so far this season and I don't yet see what this side has to offer. (They better figure it out quick because the SEC onslaught is a-comin'!)

(12) Utah 22-19 (14) Oklahoma State

Utah controlled the game nicely, never really allowed the Cowboys to get any footing on offense and moved the ball well enough to choke off most of the clock. The scoreline isn't overwhelming but I really think Utah is the better team and played much better on this day. Oklahoma State is a nice team and while I like Utah, not sure if the Utes can hang in the 12-team playoff (though I suspect we will find out). 

(6) Tennessee 25-15 (15) Oklahoma

Tennessee is really good, man, they're scary on both sides of the ball and the gauntlet at the top of the SEC has an extra competitor this season (well throw in Texas and Ol' Miss, too (I'll refrain from adding Missouri to this list)). Tennessee's offense wasn't dominant @ Oklahoma but it was effective and did well to control the game. And UT's defense is legit. This Oklahoma squad isn't as good as recent years but they're not bad and that they got thoroughly stuffed by the Vols was an impressive showing. Oklahoma will be back in the years to come but for now Tennessee is a legit contender to win it all. 


Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Texas, (3) Ohio State, (5) Mississippi, (6) Tennessee, (8) Miami,  (10) Penn State, (12) Utah, (16) Louisiana State, (17) Notre Dame, (18) Michigan, (19) Louisville, (20) Iowa State, (21) Clemson, (24) Illinois

Won but did not impress

(7) Missouri. OT to beat Vandy? At home? This is not how top 10 squads collect their pelts. 

(25) Texas A&M. Fumbling around at home with Bowling Green (yes, Michigan fumbled around with them, too) is not a good look for a team that fancies themselves a top drawer side in the SEC (though I do not now--nor have I ever--considered them top drawer in the SEC).

Bad beat

(11) Southern Cal. I really thought they should've won at Michigan, but they started slow and ended sloppy. I still suspect they're the better team. 

(14) Oklahoma State. You gotta win the home games in the conference but I think Utah is just a better squad, so this is a "bad beat". 

(15) Oklahoma. Yeah, they need to handle conference foes at home, but, man, Tennessee is really good and I thought the Sooners' ability to even hang in this game was kinda impressive. Long climb up into the upper echelons of the SEC but I have faith the Sooners will get there (not this year, but, you know, eventually). 

Not so good 

(13) Kansas State. Yipes! Kinda got destroyed at Brigham Young, not a devastating L but not good if you want to stay in the top 20.

(22) Nebraska. Yes, I'm dubious of the Cornhuskers but if they're a for-real top 25 squad then they beat the Illini at home. 

(23) Northern Illinois. Oh, a good W at Notre Dame will be remembered by alumni for years to come, but time in the top 25 can be fleeting.


Next week's intriguing matches:

(20) Oklahoma State @ (23) Kansas State (hmmmm....Big-12 opponents both coming off losses, loser leaves town, no?)

(15) Louisville @ (16) Notre Dame (interesting, feels like a nice bounce back W for the Irish is on their racket or will it be an impressive road W for the Cards?)

(2) Georgia @ (4) Alabama (here we go! Game of the year so far)

(19) Illinois @ (9) Penn State (nice test for the Nittany Lions, a foe they should beat but probably the toughest match of the year so far)

Saturday, September 21, 2024

2024-25 NFL (Week 2)

Games I saw (some of):

Bills 31-10 Dolphins

The story here is that QB Tua sustained another concussion and left the game (with the distressing cloud of retirement hanging over him) but before he left, honestly he was pretty terrible in this game. The first interception wasn't really his fault, but the second was and the third was Levis-level embarrassing and sealed the victory for the Bills. Where do the Dolphins go from here? Well, the talk is trading for Trey Lance (Cowboys) or even Bryce Young (Panthers), but neither of those seem like solutions to their problem, so the longer Tua is out the harder it'll be for the Dolphins to get anything going. As for the Bills, they moved the ball pretty well but frankly this game was over so quick, they didn't really do much. Last year the Bills went all in surrounding QB Allen with playmakers on both sides of the ball, but the offense was still mostly just Allen and the defense suffered injuries that ground them down to nothing by the time the playoffs came around. This year they're capped out of the star market, so its just Josh Allen hero ball and while that is terrifying on the one hand, it is probably theur best chance for success. So, while most think the Bills will take a step back (my pre-season picks had them out of the playoffs in the AFC), it is just as likely that the Bills reach their peak relying on Allen. Then again, Tua's travails show how dangerous it is to put all eggs in one basket. 

Saints 44-19 Cowboys

Holy golly! The Saints just scored and scored and scored and then mailed in most of the 2nd half. After two weeks this Saints offense looks amazing and while I want to be skeptical, I dunno, they look damn good! As for the Cowboys, well they were out of this game so quick, it's almost like they weren't even there. I suspect the Cowboys are still pretty good but they were too good against the Browns and too terrible against the Saints, so not enough yet to get a feel for them. And the Saints, well, so far so good (and they are in a sorry division, so this could keep going). 

Jets 24-17 Titans

Another week of watching the Titans....*sigh*  Well, they are a tougher, more physical team than I expected in the post-Vrabel era but with QB Levis, they have put a cap on how effective that offense can ever be. Levis is not a disaster but he's not good, every good move he makes will invariably be followed by a backward step. It took the Jets a while to get going--again, up against a tougher D than they expected--but once they did, they controlled the game to the close. I still think the Jets can be really good but they aren't there just yet, so the ceiling is hard to figure. The Titans are a tough out but won't win a lot of games. 

Bengals 25-26 Chiefs

Fun game, though I thought the Bengals had their chances to put this game away and they didn't rise to the task. The Chiefs (re: QB Mahomes) made the plays down the stretch to steal the victory but they still don't look like the mighty Chiefs (and I suspect they won't all year long). The Bengals are better than their 0-2 record, but how much better is hard to see. 

Bears 13-19 Texans

I liked QB Caleb, he's unorthodox (he's got weird foot work, which is either his downfall or his super power, I haven't decided yet) but he is a rookie and the team is still glitchy on offense. I like the Bears D but it, too, needs work. The Bears are frisky but not very good. The Texans are good but haven't shown that they can reach their peak. I like QB Stroud, he spreads the ball around nicely, and the D is nice but not great. Felt like they should've stomped the Bears, not sure why they didn't. 


The rest of the slate:

Bucs 20-16 Lions. The Bucs look spunky, the Lions don't look as good as it feels like they should be. 

Colts 10-16 Packers. Man, this was on the table for the Colts and they didn't take it, so are they just not any good? Good W for the Packers, with QB Love out indefinitely, they need to sneak every victory they can (so far so good). 

Niners 17-23 Vikings. Hmmmmm....the Vikings had the highlight of the week, a 97 yard bomb to WR Jefferson. But that aside, I'm surprised the Niners couldn't get their offense going. West teams coming east is always tough but the Niners looked so good to me against the Jets last week, I thought they would just roll through this.

Seahawks 23-20 (OT) Patriots. The Pats are feisty, but the Seahawks are, too. A win on the road is always good. The Pats are one of those teams that won't win games but will cover spreads. 

Giants 18-21 Commanders. NYG becomes the first team to ever score 3 TD's while giving up 0 TD's and still lose. Look at that score line....who scored the TD's? 

Chargers 26-3 Panthers. The Panthers suck, one of the worst teams of all time. The Chargers are still just chugging along. 

Browns 18-13 Jags. Well, QB Watson looked okay but what happened to the Jags? I think they might suck. 

Raiders 26-23 Ravens. Uh-oh. Ravens are 0-2 and if they can't beat the Raiders at home, then things are not looking good for them. As for the Raiders, well, their D plays hard and QB Minshew with some nice weapons isn't a bad offense. The Raiders might actually be kinda good. 

Rams 10-41 Cards. The Cards offense has looked pretty good so far (second only to the Saints?) and they clearly brought it here. The Rams have offensive line problems and their suffering through injuries on the offensive side. Good W for the Cards, tough L for the Rams. 

Steelers 13-6 Broncos. Looks like a slog of a match. The Steelers have a really good D and an offense that should be able to run the ball a little. Not sure what the Broncos have just yet, seems like not much so far. 

Falcons 22-21 Eagles. I saw none of this but I know the Falcons came back late to steal. The Eagles still look like the stagnation machine it was in the 2nd half of last season. The Falcons should/could have a nice offense, we'll see if they can keep QB Cousins upright. 

Monday, September 16, 2024

2024-25 NCAA Football (Week 3)

Games I saw (some of):

(1) Georgia 13-12 Kentucky

WTF was that? UGA really kinda sucked in this game, they finally got RB Etienne going in the 2nd half (well, a little bit) and at least he secured them the TD they needed to win. But, man, the Bulldog defense didn't stop the run or the pass--UK is not exactly a barn burning offense--and the Bulldog offense mostly sputtered and I thought QB Beck played maybe the worst game of his collegiate career. So is Kentucky better than we thought? Well, they can't be as bad as they looked the prior week at home to South Carolina. But, I don't think that was it. I think I have recounted this memory on here before but here goes again: back in the Nick Saban days when Alabama was murdering everyone (right before Georgia started murdering everyone), the Tide rolled into Lexington and dropped a 51-3 ass whoopin' on the Wildcats. It's easy to look at the score and say 'Alabama is really good and Kentucky really sucks' and most of the time that would be the proper takeaway. But, no. What happened was the Tide brought their A-game because they were afraid of Kentucky; they could've put forth no effort at all and won 27-10 and no one would've thought anything of it, but Saban wanted to send a message and the message was 'that Kentucky squad is gettin' kinda good and I don't wanna fuckin' lose to them!' So Saban pulled out all the stops and embarrassed the Cats. So when UGA comes in and plays the worst game they've played in a decade, they're saying 'Kentucky sucks so bad they can't possibly hang with us', which, again, most of the time would be correct. But, UGA kinda got lucky here. They were not the better team for most of this match and, yes, one good drive is all it took to secure the victory...but....one good drive is all they had against a team they clearly had zero respect for. Now, I understand their attitude, I had already completely given up on this Kentucky squad and now I'm forced to kinda take them seriously again (for a while). But instead I think I'll just look sideways at the Bulldogs and keep an eye on their upcoming games: @Alabama, @Texas, @Ole Miss, Tennessee at home and, hell, Georgia Tech to close the season might not be the biscuit they thought it would be. Just sayin': keep an eye on Georgia, they don't look like they're into it this year. 

(4) Alabama 42-10 Wisconsin

Only kinda vaguely paying attention to this one because every time I looked up the Bama running game was gashing the Badgers and putting up TD's. Not a vintage Wisconsin side, but an impressive thumping by the Tide. (Speaking of vintage: they retired Ron Dayne's number before the game and my man showed up in shorts and a t-shirt; I'm not exactly a dapper dressed myself but that ain't a good look for a Heisman winner)

(16) Louisiana State 36-33 South Carolina

South Carolina made big plays and kept the Tigers off balance, but when LSU finally settled down and played, they really were the better team. I've watched LSU a coupla times and I've generally been impressed but they also feel schizophrenic, like they can win or lose just about any time anywhere. As for South Carolina, that nice win in Lexington felt like the start of something big, but the 2nd half of this game reminded us that the Gamecocks are middle of the pack.  


Top 25

Handled their business

(2) Texas, (4) Alabama, (5) Mississippi, (6) Missouri, (7) Tennessee, (9) Oregon, (10) Miami, (12) Utah, (13) Oklahoma State, (14) Kansas State, (15) Oklahoma, (16) Louisiana State, (18) Notre Dame, (23) Nebraska

Won but did not impress

(1) Georgia. WTF? UK's D-line had some nice moments and UK's running game did, too. But the Bulldogs never should've let this game stay in jeopardy for so long. 

(17) Michigan. Didn't exactly dominate Arkansas State at home, kinda fell apart in the 4th quarter! Not saying the Wolverines aren't good, they've still got plenty of talent on the defensive side, but this title defense is not gonna be easy and they clearly do not have the offense to go too far.

Bad beat

(20) Arizona. I watched a bit of Arizona the previous week not exactly lighting it up against Northern Arizona and I can't say I was shocked to see that Kansas State handled them rather easily. I'm putting this as a bad beat but it is also quite possible that Arizona just isn't as good as they were last season.  

(24) Boston College. BC is kinda spunky but so is Missouri, so going on the road and hanging with an SEC powerhouse (-ish) is not a bad showing. This is not a bad L.  


Next week's intriguing matches:

(24) Illinois @ (22) Nebraska (I dunno, man, Nebraska back in the top 25? I'll believe it when I see it--and the Illini ain't exactly appointment viewing either, this may be the peak for both of these squads this year)

North Carolina State @ (21) Clemson (The Wolfpack won't roll over to the Tigers, this is a good test for Clemson to see if they're for real)

(11) Southern Cal @ (18) Michigan (a conference game? Uh....okay, should be fun)

(12) Utah @ (14) Oklahoma State (two blue collar, lunch pail squads going at it, we'll see who earns the W)

(6) Tennessee @ (15) Oklahoma (another conference game? The Vols are looking pretty good and though the Sooners haven't really gotten going yet, I got a feeling they might blow up in this game; curious to see who shines out in this one)