2025-26 NCAA Football (Championship)

Semifinals

(10) Miami 31-27 (6) Mississippi

Great game! Back and forth action, even the final hail mary is being scrutinized though Ole Miss had virtually no chance to convert. Didn't think QB Beck had it in him to calmly march down the field in the 4th quarter, but he did it--great win! Ole Miss had one of the finest offenses all year long and I really believed they would pull out this game. But Miami's D is getting the job done and their offense is finally showing up, too. Miami is playing their best football of the season right now. 

(5) Oregon 22-56 (1) Indiana

Well, this one was over quick. The Hoosiers went for a pick-6 on the first play of the game and, well, that was about it. Each team had a nice TD drive on their next possession, then Indiana just went off and left Oregon behind. Somehow Oregon outgained Indiana in total yards--that's what 3 turnovers in your own half will do to you, kids. Indiana is just pummeling the world right now. 

Championship

(10) Miami @ (1) Indiana (-8.5, 47.5)

Okay, I had my eye on Miami early in the season, I thought the mix of an experienced QB (even if he had been a jackass all summer) to go with a rebuilt D-line could really be something special. Then I watched them lose to Louisville and I was out; felt like Miami was just too dumb to get back to winning football and I kinda forgot about them til it came to be tournament time. Good win at Texas A&M, another good win at Ohio State, now a complete victory over Ole Miss (a team I kept my eye all year long), and I'm impressed. QB Beck is looking like a for-real NFL prospect again and that defense is standing up to serious challenges. Again: Miami is playing their best ball on both sides and they look like an old timey Hurricane squad. Oh--and they get to play the championship in their home stadium! Doesn't 8.5 points look like too much?

Indiana has never been good at football--EVER--until last season when they were a nice surprised. They marched through their schedule this season with impressive wins at Oregon and Penn State and then thoroughly outplayed Ohio State in the Big 10 final. They have since pummeled Alabama (not everyone's fave, but I actually liked the Tide this year) and Oregon (game was over quick) and are clearly the deserving fave going into the Final. 8.5 looks like too much, doesn't it? They're catching Miami peaking and on their home field to boot! How can this game not be close?

I dunno, man, I've laid out the case for Miami.....but I still can't go against the Hoosiers. They've been murdering people all year long, why would that stop? Miami isn't the first good team they've played, Miami isn't the first good defense they've come up against, Miami isn't the first time they've had to go on the road to win. Miami's resurgence and home field advantage, frankly, just adds that much WTF to the Hoosier victory march. I think Indy's D is gonna stifle the burgeoning Hurricane attack and I think Indy's O-line is going to counter the Canes at the lines. I think Indiana is gonna run wild and comfortably pass for 1st downs while being hardly challenged at all on D.

Its all set up for Miami but I gotta go Indiana 30-13 (Hoosiers and the under)

2025-26 NFL (Division Round)

Rams 34-31 Panthers

The Rams should have destroyed the Panthers, they didn't. Credit the Panthers for getting it up for the playoffs, but the Rams should've handled this quicker. I want to fall in love with the veteran savvy of the Rams, I'm a huge Stafford fan, but they just don't inspire confidence. 

Packers 27-31 Bears

This game was over. The Packers had a commanding lead and the Bears were struggling. Then....I dunno....the Bears pile up points and stole the game. This is one of those classic WTF-just-happened games. Don't mess with the Bears, man, they are so hard to put away.  

Bills 27-24 Jaguars

If the Jags had stuck to their commitment to the run (particluarly outside the tackles), I think they would've won this game rather easily. But they didn't do that, they kept trying to pass, and the Bills vanilla zone was able to absorb the attack. Meanwhile, Josh Allen suffered through 10 different injuries, kept chugging along and stole the victory. The game was on Jacksonville's racket and they failed to serve it out, a bit disappointing really. But Allen is a monster. 

Niners 23-19 Eagles

The Eagles sat around yelling at each other instead of just winning the game, which was a readily winnable game. The highs and lows of this Eagle team over the last 5 years or so will be studied for years to come: unbeatable when they feel like it, boring as hell when they don't show up. As for the Niners, QB Purdy is a steady force, he just never quits, you think he won't get it done but there he is getting it done. They lost TE Kittle but considering they never really got RB McCaffrey going, this was a pretty impressive performance. 

Chargers 3-16 Patriots

The Chargers just never could get any offense going at all. QB Herbert has the Josh Allen problem: I think he's trying to hit home runs every time instead of taking the singles and doubles that are available, which means they put themselves in the position of having to get big plays instead of just putting together a proper balanced offense. (I blame the Chargers coaching staff for this) The Pats didn't exactly blow anyone away, but they steadily accumulated and held the Chargers in check and did what needed to be done. 

Texans 30-6 Steelers

The score was 7-6 well into the 4th quarter, don't been fooled by the scoreline. The Texans had a nice drive, then a scoop-and-score and finished the game with a pick-6 as QB Rodgers completely fell apart at the end. The Steelers have not been good for a decade at least, but they somehow just keeping living in the playoffs and I just don't get it. Now that Coach Tomlin has moved on and they definitely have no QB (are they really gonna go for 1 more year of Rdogers?), now is the time to finally re-tool the franchise. As for the Texans, well, if they could find an offensive identity to go with the smothering defense, they just might have something. Can they find that in Foxboro in January? 

AFC

Bills @ Broncos (-1.5, 45.5)

The Bills are susceptible to 2 things: a vicious pass rush on offense and a strong running game on defense. If the Broncos stick hard to a strong running game (which the Jags last week failed to adhere to) and if they can attack from the edge into the Bills backfield, this could be a rather easy win for the Broncos. But the Bills have QB Josh Allen and a good running game of their own. If the Bills can maintain possession and get after the Broncos's young QB, they can keep it close. Yeah, I'm a Bills fan and I want to believe the no Mahomes/Burrow/Lamar mojo and though I'm skeptical, I gotta go with the Bills. I know: I just laid out the case for a Broncos victory--a decisive and rather easy victory, no less--but Allen is a monster and the wild card in this game. If the Bills can stay within striking distance in the 4th quarter, I believe that Allen will do the striking. I'll take Bills 24-20 (Bills and the under)

Texans @ Patriots (-3, 40.5)

The Texans have a killer pass rush and aren't as inexperienced as has been portrayed, this their third straight trip to the playoffs and they came close to knocking off the Chiefs last year in KC. Can they hang with the Pats? Well, I don't think Pats' D is really any better than what the Texans faced last week in Pittsburgh, but then again QB Stroud didn't exactly light up the flailing Steelers (that scoreline is very deceiving, it was way closer than 30-6 would suggest). The Pats have a smart coach and a great young QB, but they haven't been here in a while and they haven't played a team as good as the Texans (outside of Buffalo) all season long. I hate to keep harping on the Pats' piss poor schedule, but competition matters and they haven't had any in a while. I think the Pats are good and ready to win but the Texans are gonna make them work and if Stroud can make some plays, the Texans can steal this. I think they will. I got Texans 21-20 (Texans and the over)

NFC

Niners @ Seahawks (-7, 44.5)

The Niners have been a puzzling team all year long: crippling injuries and a general mediocrity but they just kept winning games. TE Kittle is out and they just got smoked by the Seahawks a few weeks ago, how can the Niners win? Well, the Seahawks and their suffocating defense are led on the other side by QB Sam Darnold (who was injured in practice this week) and a monster season from WR Smith-Njigba. Do we believe in Darnold? Do we believe in Seattle's staggeringly 1-dimensional offense? Well, that defense is pretty fuckin' great and the path to a Championship is right in front of them. I like the Seahawks to dispose of the Niners but I don't think the Niners will make it easy for them. The spread is too large, I gotta take the Niners to keep it close and make the Seahawks scramble. Seahawks 27-24 (Niners and the over)

Rams @ Bears (+4.5, 48.5)

The Rams had a stretch of killer offense this season, but that hasn't been quite as impressive lately. And the Rams defense just doesn't inspire confidence. The Bears are young, they are new to this, and their calling card is struggling for three quarters then coming on big late. Can they do that again? I think they can. The Rams are a warm weather dome team going East to play in the snow, QB Stafford is a wily veteran but the conditions are not going to be in his favor and the Bears are hungry. I kinda love the Bears here, definitely to cover and I like them to win. Bears (late) 31-27 (Bears and the over)

2025-26 NFL (Wild Card Round)

AFC

Bills @ Jags (-1.5, 51.5) 

The Bills opened as the faves, but the lines have flipped and considering the red hot Jags are at home, that makes sense. The Jags have been plodding along for a few years now, opened the season that way, as well. But for the last two months or so, the Jags have been one of the hottest teams in the league, built around a stingy defense and an offense that is hitting its stride. The Bills have been the bridesmaid a lot in the Josh Allen era and now suddenly Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Burrow are out of the way--should be Buffalo's year, right? Well, unfortunately the Bills have a vanilla defense and a nice but not overwhelming offense, and the reason the Chiefs and Ravens fell by the wayside is there are a batch of up-and-comers in the AFC. So can the Bills go to Jacksonville and get a W? Well, at the beginning of the week everyone thought so, but by the end of the week, I guess no one thinks that any more....which is perfect for me because I hate to go along with the mainstream and I want to take the Bills. The Jags defense can hold off the Bills for a while but they're gonna score eventually; the boring Bills D just has to keep QB Lawrence in check to keep the game in hand. And I think they will. Bills 24-20 (Bills and the under)

Chargers @ Patriots (-3.5, 46.5)

The Pats rode the pheneomonal sophomore season of QB Drake Maye (and truly putrid schedule) almost to the top of the AFC. The Chargers are just Chargin' along, they seemed a little better than usual this season, though without taking some great leap forward, and they seemed to avoid the catastrophic injuries of past seasons. Are they good enough to go to New England and steal a W? Maybe but west coast teams coming east don't typically fare well and I don't see the Chargers as being able to overcome that. The Pats really have played a lousy schedule but I still believe they're a pretty damn good team with a coach that knows what he's doing and a hell of a good young QB. If it were 2.5 I'd be all over the Pats, a little nervous about the extra half point, but I'll take the Pats anyway, I think their offense will move the ball. Pats 26-20 (Pats and the under)

Texans @ Steelers (+3, 38.5)

1st data point: The Texans have a killer pass rush, the Steelers have a QB that probably ought to be in the Smithsonian. 2nd data point: Did you know the Steelers haven't lost on Monday night since, like, 1991? WTF? So while the perpetually mediocre Steelers are back in the playoffs again, it feels like they've been given a lifeline in this Monday night start time against the young and dumb Texans. So can QB Aaron Rodgers stay upright enough to move the ball downfield? I don't think so. I think the Steelers will struggle to score, even with the return of WR Metcalf. As for the Texans, well, they'll be going up against a pretty good pass rush, too, but I think they'll make enough plays to get it done. Texans 18-10 (Texans and the under)

NFC
Rams @ Panthers (+10, 46.5)

I think the Panthers are a bad team that is moving in the right direction. They won their terrible division on a fluke and that's why they're here. They played well against the Rams just a coupla weeks ago on their home field, but I don't think that will happen again. I think the Rams were taking it easy that day and I don't think they will today. At 10 points, the backdoor cover is definitely a problem, but I think the Rams will build enough of a lead that it doesn't matter and I think the Rams will play hard into the 4th quarter. Rams 38-16 (Rams and the over).

Packers @ Bears (+1.5, 44.5)

The Packers have swung wildly this season, from being everybody's favorite to win it all to barely squeaking into the #7 spot in the NFC. The Bears have ridden their rocky young QB Williams and their fired-up 1st year coach to the #2 spot in the NFC and a home game against a division foe they've already defeated this season. So why are the Packers the favorite? I dunno. I think the Bears are the better team and have been for most of the season. Throw in that the Packers have serious injuries on both sides of the ball and haven't played well in over a month and....welll....I don't understand why anyone is taking the Packers here. I'll take Bears 27-14 (Bears and the under).

Niners @ Eagles (-6, 44.5)

The Niners have endured non-stop injuries this year and somehow were still in the mix for the #1 seed in the final week of the season. The Eagles have offensive weapons all over the place and yet look bored and listless for long stretches of time. Everyone seems to think the Niners suck but, all they do is win (except in their own division). The Eagles are a large favorite--and they certainly could rise up and destroy the Niners--but chances are, they'll fart around, waste a bunch of time, argue with each other on the sidelines and have to scramble to pull the game out. I really don't see a scenario where the Eagle confidently win the game. Just to hedge I'll take the Eagles to win but the Niners to keep it close. Eagles 27-24 (Niners and the over)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Playoff Semifinals)

Games I saw (some of):

(10) Miami 24-14 (2) Ohio State

All season long the Buckeyes knocked down whoever was put in front of them and we genuflected to their dominance, all while secretly wondering if they were actually any good. Well, after a back-to-back throttlings by Indiana and Miami it is plainly obvious that the Buckeye offense was kinda ordinary and the defense was good but not great. It was their scheduling that was disappointing: no Oregon, no Indiana, catching Penn State and Michigan just as they were falling apart and Texas before they were ready to blossom. The Big 10 Final showed that the Buckeyes were the 2nd best (at best!) team in the B10 and Miami just placed the flowers on their grave.

As for the Hurricanes, well, I was impressed at their opening W over Notre Dame but never saw much impressive about them again. The ACC was putrid this year--and Miami still didn't make the conference final!--and their stumbles to Louisville (dude, quit throwing interceptions!) and SMU (dude, can you please stop this running game?), were embarrassingly awful--and I thought reason enough to choose Notre Dame over them for the playoff. (*) But I noticed when they got a dominant victory at Pittsburgh and their D-line just kept getting better and better. So, in contradistinction to OSU's flawless season undone by two straight thumpings, Miami's rather lackluster regular season has yielded back to back grinding W's against Texas A&M and Ohio State (on the road, no less). Miami has shown they deserve to be here.

(5) Oregon 23-0 (4) Texas Tech

The score doesn't look like it but Tech's defense was really good, they held out as long as they could against Oregon's onslaught. But, man, dude that QB....yipes....I felt sorry for the kid. Surely that's the worst game he's ever played. He wasn't able to do much of anything and the turnovers became inevitable. You can credit Oregon's D, they came to play, but Tech's high flying offense thudded hard in this match. Good regular season, but they couldn't get it done in the tourney and that's how it goes.

Both Oregon and Tech looked pretty brilliant all year long, I couldn't separate the two--but I can now! Oregon showed up and Tech didn't, Oregon made the plays and Tech didn't, Oregon was ready to move on and Tech wasn't. In the 1st round Oregon moved the ball at will on James Madison but then fell asleep on defense, which gave the coach plenty to yell about even though they got the victory; here the coach can easily point out that while Oregon is moving on, Tech faltered so badly that the Ducks still have a lot to work on. (This is working out too perfectly for the Oregon coaching staff so far)

(9) Alabama 3-38 (1) Indiana

I believed in Bama when no one else would. When they pulled their shit together, they could get impressive W's; but when it fell apart they had some puzzling losses. I kinda thought that it was there for them to rise up as an underdog, but the offense was sloppy enough that was a foolish expectation. Bama looked like they were playing in mud, Indiana clowned them at every facet of the game, the Tide were never in this game. 

Indiana has just been grinding people into dirt all year long. Alabama is simply next on the list. Frankly the Hoosiers got going a little late in this game, with a coupla breaks this could've been way more lopsided.

(6) Mississippi 39-34 (3) Georgia

The fun one! Back and forth action, two very familiar opponents, both teams with the chance to pull it all together and go on a run (am I ready to say that the winner of this game will win it all?). For the most part UGA felt like the better team but they could never get any separation and in the 4th quarter Ole Miss made the plays and UGA did not. Good but shaky season for the Bulldogs, a weird--and getting weirder--season for the Rebels. 

Semifinals:

Fiesta Bowl: (10) Miami @ (6) Mississippi (+3.5, 52.5)

Miami's defense is cooking but I'm still not in on their offense. Against the sluggish Buckeyes they got a pick-6, a garbage time TD and a coupla FG's....I don't think that's gonna get them past Ole Miss. Especially since Ole Miss's pass rush is playing pretty good right now, too. As for the Rebels, even without their guru (**), that offense still moves with impunity and while Miami's pass rush will be one of the better ones they've faced this season, I think they can outscore the Hurricanes. I like Ole Miss 24-14 (Missisippi and the under).

Peach Bowl: (5) Oregon @ (1) Indiana (-3.5, 47.5)

Ahhhhh, this'll be a good one. Indiana's win at Oregon was arguably the best W of the entire season (Bama at Georgia was up there, too) and certainly the most eye-opening--THIS was the moment that I saw with certainty that the Hoosiers were for real. Going to Oregon and getting a hard fought L was the test and they blew right past that! Indiana dominated the Ducks on their home field and the only second guess on it now is that the Ducks played conservative thinking they could get by with a B- game plan. The Hoosiers proved that that wasn't good enough. Oregon has been a good squad all season long and they're probably playing their best ball right now--and, again, they've had back-to-back W's now that looked pretty easy but still gave the coaches plenty to bitch about--and they've got no reason to hold anything back this time. Oregon will be bringing their best and that will surely be the best that Indiana has seen all season long. But the Hoosiers are fuckin' money, man. They've taken all comers so far (including these Ducks) and after their cold-blooded shellacking of Ohio State and Alabama, I don't think they'll be afraid of Oregon. If anyone could get Indiana it is probably Oregon....but I don't think Indiana is gonna get got! (Am I ready to say that the winner of this game will win it all?) I'll take Indiana 27-24 (Oregon and the over). 

(*) Yeah, yeah, "head to head has to matter!" And the two bad losses and only one good W all season long....doesn't that have to matter, too?

(**) The buzz is that Lane Kiffin might be interested in the Venezuela presidency now that its open. But with things getting hot in Kiev, I think there's a good chance Zelensky enters the transfer portal. 

2025-26 NCAA Football (Playoff 2nd Round)

Games I saw (some of):

(9) Alabama 34-24 (8) Oklahoma

Fun game! OU jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead, Bama fans were chain smoking and trying to sell their coach to Michigan. Then, a Xmas miracle: Bama got rolling and ripped right past the Sooners, who just couldn't move the ball after their opening burst. Yeah, I was never in on OU and strangely bullish on Bama, so I was right all along (shweet!).

(10) Miami 10-3 (7) Texas A&M

Wow, a sludgefest. Miami finally broke through late in the 4th quarter and, well, that's pretty much all it took. The pass rushes had all the glory in this match. A&M did everything they could do...except beat Texas and Miami, so a hell of a season suddenly looks wildly overrated. I was impressed by Miami's opening night win over Notre Dame...and then was never impressed by them again all season long. Are they finally getting rolling? Well, the defense looks good, but the offense still isn't blowing me away. 

Didn't catch:

(11) Tulane 10-41 (6) Mississippi

An almost perfect replay of the regular season match between these two. (Why was Tulane in this tournament?)

(12) James Madison 34-51 (5) Oregon

I buy the notion that this was the perfect W for Oregon: the win was secured, the offense looked dominant but the lack of intensity on the defensive side will give the coaches plenty to complain about. The Ducks are in their spartan phase now and the next opponent better beware.

2nd Round:

Cotton Bowl: (10) Miami @ (2) Ohio State (-7.5, o/u 40.5)

Miami started the season strong, then slogged their way to a lucky invitation to the tourney; Ohio State stomped everyone they played until their last game against their first real foe (Indiana) and got manhandled. Miami did very little to live up to their opening night, OSU won so easily for so long that they may have forgotten what real football is actually like. Eh....I'll take the Buckeyes to move the ball and stymy the Hurricanes (I just don't see how Miami scores). Ohio State 28-10 (Buckeyes, under) 

Orange Bowl: (5) Oregon @ (4) Texas Tech (+2.5, 51.5)

I had Oregon and Texas Tech (and Mississippi) in the same tier all season long: brilliant offense, pretty good defense, definitely better than the dregs but not sure if they have the depth to hang with the big dogs. One of these teams will move on, at least one won't--almost a shame when potential upstarts have to face each other. Tech's one loss was at Arizona State (so-so conference opponent on the road), while Oregon's only loss was at home to Indiana (top drawer conference at home). Both teams had nice wins but nothing really eye-popping, so which one is better? I have no idea, these teams seem identical to me. The ideal match to watch is two killer offenses running it up on each other--though often times that's when the so-so defenses really show up. But I think we will get a shoot out and since Tech is getting points, I'll take the dog in a close one. Oregon 35-34 (Tech and the over)

Rose Bowl: (9) Alabama @ (1) Indiana (-7, 47.5)

Indiana is probably the most puzzling team I've ever seen: Indiana has never been good at football and watching their casual brilliance all year long made my head swim. They won at Oregon! They kept to their game plan and pulled out a strong W at Penn State! They dominated the Buckeyes for 60 solid minutes! I've never seen Indiana do any of this stuff before and in college football you tend to see the good teams coming. Bama has spent most of the 21st century kicking the shit out of all comers but suddenly seem mortal. Upstart versus fading giant. I dunno. I've been more into Alabama than most this season, some say Bama didn't deserve to be here, I say I'm not surprised to find them here. Bama has played big games, tough teams, pressing situations, they've been doing all that for a coupla decades now, Indiana has been doing it for a coupla months. But, I gotta go Hoosiers, that O-line is Bama-licious, the QB is for real, the WR's make plays, the defense is really good and even though Bama knows they ought to be better, I'm not sure they actually are. I've got to go Indiana. Indiana 24-16 (Indiana, under)

Sugar Bowl: (6) Mississippi @ (3) Georgia (-6, 55.5)

Georgia has been good, not great, this year, but they look like they've turned the corner and might go on a domination spree. Ole Miss has a high flying offense (and no head coach) and won't be afraid of conference foe UGA. This is probably Ole Miss's best chance to beat UGA since before I was born. I'm gonna do it: this is my upset pick. I think Ole Miss can score and even build a lead and I think they can hang on as UGA comes storming back. (This also could turn into a defensive sludgefest game, to, but I'd still take Ole Miss to cover) Mississippi 27-21 (Mississippi, under)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Playoff 1st round)

(9) Alabama @ (8) Oklahoma (+1.5; O/U 40.5)

Is Bama gonna bounce back from their abysmal showing in the SEC final? Is Bama gonna bounce back from their abysmal showing against Oklahoma just a few weeks ago? I think they will. I think Bama is better, I think Oklahoma got lucky against Bama earlier and I think Bama will grasp this opportunity to advance. I'll take Bama and the under.

(10) Miami @ (7) Texas A&M (-3.5; 51.5)

This is a good match. A&M has been good all year long, bad misstep at Texas but otherwise solid on both sides of the ball; Miami had two inexplicably bad L's (worse than Notre Dame's 2 L's, incidentally) but otherwise looked like a formidable side. This match could go either way, I have no idea what to expect. But I will take the dog to keep it close. Miami and the under.

(11) Tulane @ (6) Mississippi (-17.5; 56.5)

Hey, Tulane, congrats on being invited to bask in the ACC's incompetence! Don't think this is gonna last long, though, I think Ole Miss is gonna score and score and score. Enjoy it while it lasts, Green Wave. I'll take Ole Miss and the over.

(12) James Madison @ (5) Oregon (-21.5; 50.5)

James Madison hasn't had this much buzz since the War of 1812, long before Oregon was a state. This, too, won't last long. Oregon is gonna run JMU out of the stadium. I got Oregon and the over. 

2025 NCAA Football (Week 16)

Last week's championship results:

(24) North Texas 21-34 (20) Tulane

In and out of this game, looked like Tulane had it handled by halftime--is it notable that Tulane got outscored in the 2nd half?

Troy 14-31 (25) James Madison

Saw none of this game, feels like James Madison struggled, didn't seal the W til the 4th quarter. Oh well, because of the ACC's utter incompetence, they'll be sitting at the adult table this Xmas. 

(2) Indiana 13-10 (1) Ohio State

Wow, Indiana was the better team from beginning to end and I...don't know how to process that. Until last season Indiana football had never--NEVER--been more than a mild surprise once a decade or so. But they are the for real #1 team in America right now with a hot coach, a lovable QB, a solid receiving corps and a defense that just fustigated the mighty mighty Buckeyes. I'm agog...yup, agog....pure non-stop agog over here. Their only worry is that they now take on Ohio State's preoccupation about their remaining opponents. I wondered how good the Buckeyes really were, but that question wasn't so much answered as transferred to Indiana. So can the big bad SEC also-rans hang with these Big 10 bruisers? Honestly, I have no idea.

(3) Georgia 28-7 (9) Alabama

Bama just never got any offense going. UGA was good but I thought it was Bama's inabilities that were the larger factor in this match. UGA is really good, I have no second thoughts about their brilliance. But Bama was so bad in this game--they can't really be this bad. So did UGA finally solve their Bama problem? Or is Bama just not that good? Or did Bama just have a bad day? My gut feeling is the third: Bama is better than this, they just didn't show up for this match. Voters apparently agreed because Bama (and their 3 L's) were invited to keep going and I'm curious to see how they do. I think Bama is really good and they just whiffed in this match and are lucky to be getting a second chance. 

(11) Brigham Young 7-34 (4) Texas Tech

The BYU (and Utah, too, for that matter) haters got their wish in the form of another drubbing at the hands of Texas Tech. These two L's to Tech are used as evidence that the BYU offense was embarrassingly awful and they've been overrated all season long; but I must counter that outside of these games against Tech, BYU comfortably handled everyone else they played and I'm not sure what else could be expected of them. Hey, man, Texas Tech is legit good! That offense can move the ball and that pass rush is cold blooded, I can't help thinking that their two drubbings of BYU are arguably their best games of the year and if we're devaluing BYU. that only serves to devalue Texas Tech.  So I'm going the opposite route: I think BYU is pretty good and Tech's mastery of them shows how really really good Tech is. 

Duke 27-20 (OT) (17) Virginia

I saw none of this game and I'm convinced no one else did either. The fact that the ACC ended up with these two in their final just shows that the ACC doesn't deserve to have nice things. 

This leaves us next weekend with an opening round of:

(9) Alabama @ (8) Oklahoma (+1.5; O/U 40.5)

(10) Miami @ (7) Texas A&M (-3.5; 51.5)

(11) Tulane @ (6) Mississippi (-17.5; 56.5)

(12) James Madison @ (5) Oregon (-21.5; 50.5)

The controversies: Because the ACC screwed up their championship, it meant that there would be 2 small conferences teams (Tulane, James Madison) instead of just one (which we all agree is 1 too many). Subsequently, the fight between Notre Dame and Miami ended up with the Hurricanes advancing because they beat Notre Dame head to head (and that has to matter!). Personally I would've taken Notre Dame over Miami (*), becasue Notre Dames 2 losses (A&M and Miami, who meet next week) are better than Miami's 2 losses (Louisville, SMU)--and that has to matter!

My final top 12 of this season:

1) Indiana (I can't believe what I just typed)

2) Georgia

3) Ohio State

4) Texas Tech

5) Mississippi

6) Oregon

7) Alabama

8) Texas A&M

9) Notre Dame

10) Brigham Young

11) Vanderbilt 

12) Miami

(*) And I would've taken Vanderbilt over Notre Dame or Miami or Oklahoma. Yeah, Vandy was really fucking good this year.