2023 Champions League (Round of 16) (1st leg)

Paris St. Germain 0-1 Bayern Munich

I was kinda surprised how easily Bayern pushed PSG around on their home field--and why on earth did Mbappe not start? For the first 20 mins or so, Bayern absolutely dominated possession, though PSG's counter attack seemed kinda dangerous. Bayern took the lead early in the 2nd half (easy-as-you-please finish by Coman off a long cross into the box), felt like PSG was gonna ramp up the intensity, they brought Mbappe off the bench (I do not understand European 'load management': dude, these are the games you want your stars to play--this is WHY you signed them to begin with!), and in the last 10 mins or so, PSG did dominate the possession but outside of one nice run that led to a goal called back for offside (dude, arguably the closest offside call I've ever seen!), they never really did much to control the attack. I didn't think Bayern was the better team--that PSG roster is stacked! But they played the smarter game plan and they brought the intensity that PSG didn't. 2nd leg will be fun, PSG still has a killer lineup and they'll need to bring it in Munich, but I gotta think Bayern won't squander this lead (they are not sqaunderers). 

AC Milan 1-0 Tottenham

Milan got the early goal (keeper just got bum rushed, nothing he could do) and made it stand up. Thought the rest of the match was fairly even, Tottenham may have even had slightly better chances. The 2nd leg of this game is wide open, Milan did well to get the goal advantage. 

Dortmund 1-0 Chelsea

Wow, I thought Chelsea was in every way the better side in this match, better offense, better defense, better chances, better possession, etc. If Dortmund had come out with a scoreless draw, they would've been lucky. So to come up with the one moment of brilliance and stealing the W is a phenomenomal result for Dortmund. And, oh yeah, it was brilliant: dude, absolutely everything he does on this run is perfect--perfect timing to separate from the defender, perfect spacing to elude the keeper, just a fuckin' perfect play. Dortmund did well to steal this first leg, but, man, Chelsea was better and I would expect them to get it done back home in the 2nd leg (perhaps in PKs).  

Bruges 0-2 Benfica

Benfica was the better side, the better attack. I wasn't a huge fan of that penalty call (yeah, yeah, there was contact but I thought it was more even than ya think) but it wasn't a terrible call. The second goal late was a brilliant steal and lovely finish (keeper was cooked, defense let him down) to pile it on. Bruges played hard but they were never dangerous around the goal and it was really only a matter of time before Benfica found the goal. I'd say this one is done, I'd be pretty amazed if Bruges came back in this one. 

Liverpool 2-5 Real Madrid

Ha! The first coupla minutes of the game featured intense on-ball defense that suggested the speed of the game would overwhelm the players on the pitch; then, outta nowhere, Liverpool sneaks a pass behind Real's back line for a cheeky backheel that caught the keeper (and all viewers of the match!) completely off guard. A coupla minutes later GK Coutois made one of the worst goofy mistakes I've ever seen (well, until a little later in the match!) and suddenly Liverpool was up 2-0 at home before anybody had even warmed up. But, then that was about it for Liverpool. Real got on the board before halftime on a really lovely Vini rip from the top corner of the box and then soon after followed with the NEWEST goofy goalie mistake I've ever seen--dude, Vini wasn't even looking at the ball when he scored! And it was a draw at halftime when it felt like the game could've/should've been long over. Real scored early in the 2nd half on the maybe the most clinical pass to header plays I've ever seen. From there Benzema (MIA in the World Cup, nice to see him back on the pitch), took over, piling on and then piling on some more. Early on, I was thinking Real might be past their prime, felt like maybe the talent wasn't going to mesh and maybe it was time for a Utah Jazz-style blowup....but, uh....yeah, I don't think that any more. Benzema and Vini are back to looking like a killer 1-2 combo up front and suddenly they look like the team to beat. Can Liverpool go on the road and get a big W? Uh....I mean....I guess it's possible, but....no. 

Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Napoli

I wasn't blown away by Napoli but they were the better team throughout and even though they missed a PK (weird play but the right call, nice save), they didn't lose their cool. Then when Eintracht got a red card (yeah, brutal play but I think it was yellow), Napoli just dominated possession and were able to poke in a pile-on goal late to seal it. Gotta figure this one is over, Napoli looks to be the better side and heading back home with 2 goal lead is probably an insurmountable climb for Frankfurt. 

Inter Milan 1-0 FC Porto

Fun game! Back and forth, both teams had good possession, good opportunities, felt like Inter took the upper hand down the stretch but it still took quite some time before Lukaku was finally able to get on the end of one. Felt like it was gonna be a scoreless draw but Inter pulled it out at home. Wouldn't be shocked if Porto was able to take it back home, there's still some action left in this match.

Leipzig 1-1 Manchester City

Man City felt like the better side throughout. They got the early lead, felt like they were gonna make it hold up but Leipzig was able to connect on a corner (keeper in no man's land, huge pile of goal to shoot at) and that earned the draw. Man City is not unbeatable or anything, but I felt like they only got stung when they lost their focus. Leipzig has a puncher's chance, but I think Man City will finish this off back home. 

2023 NFL Super Bowl

Chiefs 38-35 Eagles

I don't want to say it all came down to a bizarre penalty call, but that call--the first defensive holding penalty of the whole game and it came with less then 2 minutes to go--clearly cut into the Eagles' chances of getting the tying FG.  There were only 9 penalties in the entire and 6 were pre-snap penalties, so there were only 3 flags thrown during the run of play in the entire game! I cannot believe that the first holding penalty of the match occurred with under two minutes to go. Hated the call at the time, kinda hating it even more thinking back on it. 

The Eagles dominated the 1st half--indeed, without the fluky scoop-and-score on a weird Herts fumble, the Chiefs would not have been close at halftime. And, while I can understand the Chiefs made some adjustments (counterintuitively went to the running game to get yards and chew up the Eagle D), I don't really understand what happened to the Eagles offense in the 2nd half. They still moved the ball okay but they didn't convert on 3rd down as easily and that was the ball game. 

Mahomes was good (not great) but in the 2nd half he did what needed to be done and clearly the Eagles' defense got discombobulated--the last two TDs were because they didn't cover the receiver in motion (WTF?). The deft mix of running early and Mahomes' playmaking (the 20 yard scamper on a bad ankle will be the centerpiece of his Hall of Fame induction highlight reel), gave the Chiefs the momentum and, thanks to a lame late call, were able to ride that into the final minute. 

The Eagles D was great in the 1st half but the pass rush lost the script after halftime. The Eagles offense was great in the 1st half but not quite adequate after halftime. Somehow getting dominated in the 1st half was exactly what the Chiefs needed. The Eagles were good, the Chiefs were gooder.

Insanely early predictions for next year: I think the Bengals are the best team in the AFC and as for the NFC, well, we have to see what the QB situations (Rodgers, Brady, the various Niner cast offs) are going to yield. It wouldn't shock me if the Rams re-emerge or if the Commanders find the right QB and actually look kinda good and I can't really rule out the Panthers or Saints making big moves. With all the potential turnover, it could be that the Eagles cruise back to the Super Bowl or that a new team comes out of nowhere. 

2022-23 NFL Conference Championships

Niners 7-31 Eagles

Well, this was shaping up to be a good match but when QB Brock Purdy was knocked out early on and the Niners had to go to their 4th (!) string QB, well, that was the ball game. The Niners put up a game effort, as lopsided as the score looks, the Eagles didn't exactly dominate. The killer: right before halftime, the Niners tried to be aggressive (not a bad idea: the 2-minute drill is the one thing the backup QB probably practiced most), but when QB fumbled, it set the Eagles up for a quick TD before the half. That was bad. Up til then the Niners had at least been in striking distance but that giveaway pretty much finished them off. The Eagles didn't really do much after that, they didn't have to. 

Bengals 20-23 Chiefs

I thought the Bengals started slow, didn't make the most of their chances and still could've won this game (or at least get it to OT). Some blamed the refs but I don't see it that way at all, I think the Bengals played their worst game since September--and still could've pulled this out! To me the lesson was that the Bengals were the best team in the AFC this season and only Patrick Mahomes kept them from the glory. Mahomes was pretty great, even on a shredded ankle. The Bengals were the better team but you still gotta beat the Chiefs.

Chiefs @ Eagles (-1.5) (o/u 51)

I expect a good game, fun game, but I don't think it goes down to the wire. My initial thought was to go with the Chiefs as the underdog, but I've come around to thinking that the Eagle pass rush will be tough to beat. Much has been made of the Eagles' weak competition all season long, especially two playoff games where they were barely tested at all. Fine. But it got them to this point and I think that D is gonna be too much for Mahomes to overcome. I love Mahomes but I kinda feel like he's all the Chiefs have and I don't think he can elude the Eagles D for long enough to make this a game. I can see either team winning a close match, but I can't see the Chiefs laying a beatdown on the Eagles--but I can see the Eagles laying a beatdown on the Chiefs. If Mahomes gets knocked out, I'd say the game is over; but even if not, I'd say the Eagles can still shut him down and move the ball well enough to dominate. I don't really care that the Eagle schedule was soft, that don't matter at all. All that matters in this game is Mahomes' ankle and its not 100%, so I gotta go Eagles. I'll say Eagles 27-17 (Eagles and the under). 

2023 MLB Hall of Fame Voting

Scott Rolen was the only one voted in this year. 

*sigh*

Look, I like Scott Rolen as much as the next guy, I'm sure he's quick witted and fun to be around and can probably take down a pitcher of beer like nobody's business. But I (in the Bob Ryan parlance) just never thought of Rolen as a Hall of Famer and I still don't. 

Dude, compare his numbers to Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran--or, fuck, even Jeff Kent!--and you'll see he's not nearly as good as these guys that are way behind him in the voting.

We blame the decline in baseball over the last 20-ish years on football, kids today, social media, short attention span, rap music, political correctness--blame whatever you want. But when the baseball writers give up on their own game to reward guys solely for not getting busted for drugs, then what are we doing here? We've turned an appreciation of the game itself into a system of navigating the socio-political nonsense of the day. It is the baseball writers that brought us to this state with their stupid selfish faux outrage. They're the ones who gave up on baseball, not the kids.

A baseball Hall of Fame without Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, ARod, Manny, Clemens, etc., is a hall of mediocrity. Welcome to the Hall, Scott Rolen. The baseball writers paved this road with their good intentions.

2023 Australian Open

#4 Djokovic over #3 Tsitsipas in 5 

Djokovic is still the man. Last year he was booted out of the tournament for not bowing down to Covid nonsense (hold on to your history books, kids, the greatest irrational panic of the last century or so was in full effect in the sports world back then), so this year he seemed extra incentivized to whomp the shit out of everyone and that's what he did. He only dropped 1 set in the entire tourney (a 2nd set tiebreak to a qualifier!) and even though it feels like the next crop of talent is ready to step up (hmmm., seems like Americans are playing tennis again though the future seems to be Russian (*)), Djokovic is still the best in the biz.

My favorite match that I saw was in the round of 16 where Rublev defeated Rune in 5 sets.  Man, keep an eye on Rune: he's definitely not completely in control of his powers (yanked a lot of balls into the 5th row), but when he gets around on a ball--holy shit! That kid hits rockets! If you've got ESPN+ and wanna see some top quality tennis, the 5th set of this one was NCAA tournament-quality nail biting entertainment. (https://www.espn.com/espnplus/player/_/id/19fdbaf5-b5cf-4dc0-be0d-486999e0b601)

#5 Sabalenka over #22 Rybakina in 3

I only caught random Ladies' matches, but I saw Sabalenka a few times: big hitter, good game but like most Russians (**), when she gets down on herself, she gets doooooowwwwwnnnn, which is precisely what keeps her from dominating like she could. Didn't see the Final but I was impressed with Rybakina's performance over Azarenka in the semis. Nice run from Pliskova and Azarenka to remind us that they're still capable of getting big wins. 

Saw a random smattering of the Aussie this year, wish I'd seen more. 

(*) Or at least I think they're Russian. Now that we don't have Covid to panic about any more, we've moved to pretending like ignoring the Russian flag is how wars get won. I'd like to think that level headed objectivity will return to civilization but it might take a while. 

(**) It's okay to root for Sabalenka, she at least has the good taste to pretend like she's not from Moscow, which I guess that makes her acceptable....but is she vaccinated....? Has she jumped through all possible pointless hoops for acceptance? 

2022-23 NFL Playoffs (Conference Championships)

Division Round

Jags 20-27 Chiefs

In the 1st half, QB Mahomes suffered an ankle injury that looked pretty gnarly and from that point on the Jags' strategies became apparent: on defense blow up the Chiefs O-Line on every play, every situation and on offense do whatever it takes to get the next 1st down. Well, the Jags just couldn't pull it off as their offense kinda floundered (impressive performance from the Chiefs D) and though the mighty Chief offense wasn't so mighty, it did enough survive (with and without Mahomes). This was a winnable game for the Jags and they just couldn't get there. Another sneaky good Chiefs W. 

Giants 7-38 Eagles

Yeah, this one was over quick. The Eagles did whatever they wanted on offense and the defense ably handled the Giant attack that had looked so good the week earlier in Minnesota. The Eagles showed definitively that they are better than the Giants and the Vikings on both sides of the ball. This match was just a warmup for the Niners. 

Bengals 27-10 Bills

Man, looking back on this game: the Bengals only scored 27 points? Really? Man, it felt like they got a 1st down every time they touched the ball. The post-game chatter was a lot about Josh Allen and while he wasn't great, he wasn't awful either; he was--gasp--irrelevant in this game. It was the inability of the Bills D to get stops at all that doomed the Bills. My theory for this game would be that the Bills would absolutely need Allen's hero ball antics to win and while that may have been true, the hero ball never appeared largely the Bengals used up all the clock and put way more points on the scoreboard. A disappointing L for the Bills but the Bengals were easily the better team on this day (seriously, only 27 points? Felt like waaaaaaay more). Great W for the Bengals, they're getting hot at just the right time. 

Cowboys 12-19 Niners

Clusterfuck of a game, neither team dominated though I thought the Niners were better on both sides. Good W for QB Purdy, still not sure what to make of him but he beat a really good Cowboys defense in the playoffs, so far so good. People complained about Dak Prescott and it would've been nice if he could've done more, but I didn't think he was the problem, the inability to move the ball on the Niners was a team effort (the Niners' effort was better). 

Conference Championships

Niners @ Eagles (-2.5) (o/u 45)

Ahhh, this is the match we all wanted in the NFC, these are the two best teams, the two best defenses with two really good coaches that know what they're doing. The game is a coin flip, I would be shocked if one team blew out the other but either team in a close game seems perfectly possible. The Eagles are at home and they don't have a rookie QB, so I'll say Eagles 24-21 (Eagles and the under).

Bengals @ Chiefs (-2) (o/u 47.5)

Mahomes' ankle is troubling but let me be clear: I think the Bengals are the better team regardless of Mahomes' ankle. The Bengals have beaten the Chiefs three straight, not afraid of going on the road in the playoffs and their offense is humming right now. The Chiefs (not unlike the Bills actually) have been good but not great all season long, the offense is solid but doesn't seem quite as unbeatable without Tyreke Hill and the defense is savvy but I don't think they're gonna slow down the Bengals. I think the Bengals are the better team in every way and I'm surprised to say this but I'd be kinda shocked if the Chiefs won. I'll say Bengals 31-21 (Bengals and the over). 

2022-23 NFL Playoffs (Division Round)

Wild Card Round

Seahawks 23-41 Niners

I thought the Niners would dominate the 1st half, then the Seahawks would get some garbage time action to make the score look respectable. Well, the Niners were fine in the 1st half, moved the ball well, put points on the board; but somehow based on one good drive, one unexpected big play that caught the Niners napping and a nice final 2-minute drive to steal an FG, somehow the Seahawks were up 17-16 at the half. Then the Niners D stepped up, the Seahawks couldn't convert at all and once the Niners started scoring, it felt like they were never going to stop. So in the end, a dominant Niners W (and one last valiant effort from the overachieving Seahawks) but not the commanding performance I expected. 

Chargers 30-31 Jaguars

The Chargers jumped out to a 27-0 lead largely because Trevor Lawrence couldn't help but give the ball away. But once Lawrence stopped making it easy for the Chargers, the Chargers just didn't know what to do anymore and squandered a mighty lead as the Jags just kept coming. Disappointing performance by the Chargers, how that coach still has his job is a mystery (he is one of the only people in all of celebrity-dom where I openly applaud the slings and arrows he suffers--he deserves them because he makes it harder for his team to win, which is the most unforgivable sin in all of sports), but somehow not unexpected. The Jags have been playing well for the last 8 weeks or so, the coach-QB combo is really starting to look like a winner. Hard to see how they hang with either the Chiefs, Bills and/or Bengals, but they look good to go for next fall and that's not bad. 

Dolphins 31-34 Bills

The Bills have had the problem all season of dominating the 1st half, then taking the 2nd half off. Here they played well in the 1st and 3rd quarters, while fighting the refs in the 2nd (can't recall one team having so many flukey reviewable-ish plays in a row) and just kinda holding on in the 4th. Not an inspiring performance, but this team can put up 34 points and win a playoff game while playing not very good for most of it. Is this their wake up call or do they think they're ready to take out the Bengals? The Dolphins made the most of the lackadaisical Bills play and had moments of wicked D and passable offense; but, honestly, how they scored 31 points is an enigma. This team was not near its best coming into the game and didn't play particularly well (Waddle dropped a big play ball that hit him in the chest on the very first pass of the game--this team did not bring its best effort), so how they managed to make this a game deep into the 4th quarter is something the Bills really ought to take a look at. (Or we can just notch it up to being a division game with all the idiosyncrasy that suggests)

Giants 31-24 Vikings

I poo-poohed the notion that because the Vikings were good in one-score games this year that that automatically meant they would lose their next one-score game, which was the sharp play last week. I stand by my reasoning (and continue throwing poo at the opposite reasoning) but I failed to acknowledge how good that Giant offense actually is. They moved the ball with confidence throughout and really put it on a mediocre (at best) Vikings defense. That said, the Vikings hung around and had their chances late but just couldn't get the ball to Justin Jefferson (seems like he was the one dimension of their one-dimensional offense), so they were still in play to steal it. But kudos to the Giants for bringing the offensive game plan that ate up clock and the defensive good sense to lock up Jefferson. Good W for the Giants, another tough playoff L for the Vikings. 

Ravens 17-24 Bengals

Felt like it was gonna be a sludgefest, but the Bengals scored on their first two drives, felt like they had unlocked the Ravens. But then it steady became the sludgefest we expected. Late in the 4th, tied at 17, the Ravens were at the 2-yard line (not the 1-yard line, mind you), when QB Huntley tried to dive over the pile on the sneak, waved the ball ahead of him, did not get it to the goalline but did get it knocked away, which went right to LB Hubbard, who ran it 98 yards for the go-ahead score. The Ravens had another chance but it was over, the momentum was irretrievable, and the Bengals were able to salt it away. (Huntley, my man, if you score that TD, your whole career is different) The Ravens were able to hang even with a backup QB, they didn't dominate but they didn't get dominated by the Bengals, and they really could've won. Good game, memorable game, and like the Bills above, is this the wake up call the Bengals needed or a harbinger of slippage?

Cowboys 31-14 Bucs

Yeah, this game was every bit as lame as I expected it to be. The Bucs just weren't good this year, they've pretty much sucked since September and only made it this far by being in the worst division in the league. The Cowboys were the better team in every way and while there was the possibility that they would gack it up in Tampa, the Bucs just didn't give them anything to gack on. I expect Tom Brady to play next year but not with the Bucs (how come no one is talking Commanders? Pretty good squad that just needs a QB, right?). As for the Cowboys, well, they did what they were supposed to do, now they're on to San Francisco. 

Division Round

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-9.5) (o/u 52.5)

The Jags play hard and after last week's furious comeback, I expect them to play hard right to the end and make the most of this found money. And the Chiefs all year long have played close games, allowing lesser teams to hang around. Is there a chance the Chiefs overthink this and let this game get away? Uh, yeah, that can happen. I like the Jags to play them close (whether its the Chiefs winning it late or the Jags scoring in garbage time) but I expect the Chiefs to put more points on the board. The Chiefs are still really good, Mahomes is still the man and all that, but they're hardly unbeatable (just ask the Bengals). I don't think it catches up to the Chiefs this week, but I still say they don't cover. I'll say Chiefs 31-27 (Jags and the Over)

Giants @ Eagles (-8) (o/u 48)

The Giants won't be afraid of the Eagles and if they can do to Philly what they did to Minnesota, then they could eat enough clock to steal a W. The Eagles haven't played well in a while, the curse of the dominant division winner, so is playing a familiar opponent a good or bad thing? Well, I think the Eagles will be just fine, I like their offense to adapt to the Giants and I know Philly's D is better than Minnesota's, so I'd be surprised if the Giants can control the ball the way they did last week. I was going to say that I like the Giants to keep the game close and I don't think it will be a high scoring game, but now I think the Giants offense will be whipped by the 4th quarter, so the Eagles might finish this off before it gets to the 2-minute drill. I was gonna go Giants but now I'm thinking Eagles. I'll say Eagles 28-17 (Eagles and the Under)

Bengals @ Bills (-6) (o/u 49)

Okay, game of the year, the game we were expecting a coupla weeks ago (before Damar Hamlin decided we needed a Monday thinking of things more important than football). The Bengals have won 9 straight (oh, the Bills have won 8 straight) and are playing really well, but injuries to the OL could be a sticky wicket for them; the Bills overpowered 14 of their 17 opponents this season (hmmm, honestly you could say that the Jets were the only team to hang a for-real L on this squad this year) but we're down to the quarterfinals now and the Bills defense just isn't up to snuff compared to the remaining teams. That requires Josh Allen to be perfect from here on out and if he's up to it, the Bills can still be the best team; but if he falters at all and he makes it easy on the opposing defense, that's gonna put more pressure on the Bills D that it can bear. The Bengals might be the better team but I'm not totally convinced. I think this is a FG game, the last team to score will likely be the winner. Bills are at home, they got the Hamlin vibe and the big play offense is capable of hanging with anyone. That said, -6 is too damn high--it opened at 3.5, which was too high even then! Gotta take the Bengals to cover. I'll say Bills 34-31 (Bengals and the Over)

Cowboys @ Niners (-4) (o/u 46.5)

I like the Cowboys, at their best they can move the ball and get stops; at their worst, though, the offense stalls and the defense has to do too much. I think the Niners have the better offense and probably the better defense, too. At home, I expect them to get all the luck and that's all just too much for the Cowboys. The Cowboys are nice but not great, but this Niners team might be really really good (yes, even with Brock Purdy!). I gotta go Niners 28-13 (Niners and the Under)