2022-23 NFL Playoffs (Conference Championships)

Division Round

Jags 20-27 Chiefs

In the 1st half, QB Mahomes suffered an ankle injury that looked pretty gnarly and from that point on the Jags' strategies became apparent: on defense blow up the Chiefs O-Line on every play, every situation and on offense do whatever it takes to get the next 1st down. Well, the Jags just couldn't pull it off as their offense kinda floundered (impressive performance from the Chiefs D) and though the mighty Chief offense wasn't so mighty, it did enough survive (with and without Mahomes). This was a winnable game for the Jags and they just couldn't get there. Another sneaky good Chiefs W. 

Giants 7-38 Eagles

Yeah, this one was over quick. The Eagles did whatever they wanted on offense and the defense ably handled the Giant attack that had looked so good the week earlier in Minnesota. The Eagles showed definitively that they are better than the Giants and the Vikings on both sides of the ball. This match was just a warmup for the Niners. 

Bengals 27-10 Bills

Man, looking back on this game: the Bengals only scored 27 points? Really? Man, it felt like they got a 1st down every time they touched the ball. The post-game chatter was a lot about Josh Allen and while he wasn't great, he wasn't awful either; he was--gasp--irrelevant in this game. It was the inability of the Bills D to get stops at all that doomed the Bills. My theory for this game would be that the Bills would absolutely need Allen's hero ball antics to win and while that may have been true, the hero ball never appeared largely the Bengals used up all the clock and put way more points on the scoreboard. A disappointing L for the Bills but the Bengals were easily the better team on this day (seriously, only 27 points? Felt like waaaaaaay more). Great W for the Bengals, they're getting hot at just the right time. 

Cowboys 12-19 Niners

Clusterfuck of a game, neither team dominated though I thought the Niners were better on both sides. Good W for QB Purdy, still not sure what to make of him but he beat a really good Cowboys defense in the playoffs, so far so good. People complained about Dak Prescott and it would've been nice if he could've done more, but I didn't think he was the problem, the inability to move the ball on the Niners was a team effort (the Niners' effort was better). 

Conference Championships

Niners @ Eagles (-2.5) (o/u 45)

Ahhh, this is the match we all wanted in the NFC, these are the two best teams, the two best defenses with two really good coaches that know what they're doing. The game is a coin flip, I would be shocked if one team blew out the other but either team in a close game seems perfectly possible. The Eagles are at home and they don't have a rookie QB, so I'll say Eagles 24-21 (Eagles and the under).

Bengals @ Chiefs (-2) (o/u 47.5)

Mahomes' ankle is troubling but let me be clear: I think the Bengals are the better team regardless of Mahomes' ankle. The Bengals have beaten the Chiefs three straight, not afraid of going on the road in the playoffs and their offense is humming right now. The Chiefs (not unlike the Bills actually) have been good but not great all season long, the offense is solid but doesn't seem quite as unbeatable without Tyreke Hill and the defense is savvy but I don't think they're gonna slow down the Bengals. I think the Bengals are the better team in every way and I'm surprised to say this but I'd be kinda shocked if the Chiefs won. I'll say Bengals 31-21 (Bengals and the over). 

2022-23 NFL Playoffs (Division Round)

Wild Card Round

Seahawks 23-41 Niners

I thought the Niners would dominate the 1st half, then the Seahawks would get some garbage time action to make the score look respectable. Well, the Niners were fine in the 1st half, moved the ball well, put points on the board; but somehow based on one good drive, one unexpected big play that caught the Niners napping and a nice final 2-minute drive to steal an FG, somehow the Seahawks were up 17-16 at the half. Then the Niners D stepped up, the Seahawks couldn't convert at all and once the Niners started scoring, it felt like they were never going to stop. So in the end, a dominant Niners W (and one last valiant effort from the overachieving Seahawks) but not the commanding performance I expected. 

Chargers 30-31 Jaguars

The Chargers jumped out to a 27-0 lead largely because Trevor Lawrence couldn't help but give the ball away. But once Lawrence stopped making it easy for the Chargers, the Chargers just didn't know what to do anymore and squandered a mighty lead as the Jags just kept coming. Disappointing performance by the Chargers, how that coach still has his job is a mystery (he is one of the only people in all of celebrity-dom where I openly applaud the slings and arrows he suffers--he deserves them because he makes it harder for his team to win, which is the most unforgivable sin in all of sports), but somehow not unexpected. The Jags have been playing well for the last 8 weeks or so, the coach-QB combo is really starting to look like a winner. Hard to see how they hang with either the Chiefs, Bills and/or Bengals, but they look good to go for next fall and that's not bad. 

Dolphins 31-34 Bills

The Bills have had the problem all season of dominating the 1st half, then taking the 2nd half off. Here they played well in the 1st and 3rd quarters, while fighting the refs in the 2nd (can't recall one team having so many flukey reviewable-ish plays in a row) and just kinda holding on in the 4th. Not an inspiring performance, but this team can put up 34 points and win a playoff game while playing not very good for most of it. Is this their wake up call or do they think they're ready to take out the Bengals? The Dolphins made the most of the lackadaisical Bills play and had moments of wicked D and passable offense; but, honestly, how they scored 31 points is an enigma. This team was not near its best coming into the game and didn't play particularly well (Waddle dropped a big play ball that hit him in the chest on the very first pass of the game--this team did not bring its best effort), so how they managed to make this a game deep into the 4th quarter is something the Bills really ought to take a look at. (Or we can just notch it up to being a division game with all the idiosyncrasy that suggests)

Giants 31-24 Vikings

I poo-poohed the notion that because the Vikings were good in one-score games this year that that automatically meant they would lose their next one-score game, which was the sharp play last week. I stand by my reasoning (and continue throwing poo at the opposite reasoning) but I failed to acknowledge how good that Giant offense actually is. They moved the ball with confidence throughout and really put it on a mediocre (at best) Vikings defense. That said, the Vikings hung around and had their chances late but just couldn't get the ball to Justin Jefferson (seems like he was the one dimension of their one-dimensional offense), so they were still in play to steal it. But kudos to the Giants for bringing the offensive game plan that ate up clock and the defensive good sense to lock up Jefferson. Good W for the Giants, another tough playoff L for the Vikings. 

Ravens 17-24 Bengals

Felt like it was gonna be a sludgefest, but the Bengals scored on their first two drives, felt like they had unlocked the Ravens. But then it steady became the sludgefest we expected. Late in the 4th, tied at 17, the Ravens were at the 2-yard line (not the 1-yard line, mind you), when QB Huntley tried to dive over the pile on the sneak, waved the ball ahead of him, did not get it to the goalline but did get it knocked away, which went right to LB Hubbard, who ran it 98 yards for the go-ahead score. The Ravens had another chance but it was over, the momentum was irretrievable, and the Bengals were able to salt it away. (Huntley, my man, if you score that TD, your whole career is different) The Ravens were able to hang even with a backup QB, they didn't dominate but they didn't get dominated by the Bengals, and they really could've won. Good game, memorable game, and like the Bills above, is this the wake up call the Bengals needed or a harbinger of slippage?

Cowboys 31-14 Bucs

Yeah, this game was every bit as lame as I expected it to be. The Bucs just weren't good this year, they've pretty much sucked since September and only made it this far by being in the worst division in the league. The Cowboys were the better team in every way and while there was the possibility that they would gack it up in Tampa, the Bucs just didn't give them anything to gack on. I expect Tom Brady to play next year but not with the Bucs (how come no one is talking Commanders? Pretty good squad that just needs a QB, right?). As for the Cowboys, well, they did what they were supposed to do, now they're on to San Francisco. 

Division Round

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-9.5) (o/u 52.5)

The Jags play hard and after last week's furious comeback, I expect them to play hard right to the end and make the most of this found money. And the Chiefs all year long have played close games, allowing lesser teams to hang around. Is there a chance the Chiefs overthink this and let this game get away? Uh, yeah, that can happen. I like the Jags to play them close (whether its the Chiefs winning it late or the Jags scoring in garbage time) but I expect the Chiefs to put more points on the board. The Chiefs are still really good, Mahomes is still the man and all that, but they're hardly unbeatable (just ask the Bengals). I don't think it catches up to the Chiefs this week, but I still say they don't cover. I'll say Chiefs 31-27 (Jags and the Over)

Giants @ Eagles (-8) (o/u 48)

The Giants won't be afraid of the Eagles and if they can do to Philly what they did to Minnesota, then they could eat enough clock to steal a W. The Eagles haven't played well in a while, the curse of the dominant division winner, so is playing a familiar opponent a good or bad thing? Well, I think the Eagles will be just fine, I like their offense to adapt to the Giants and I know Philly's D is better than Minnesota's, so I'd be surprised if the Giants can control the ball the way they did last week. I was going to say that I like the Giants to keep the game close and I don't think it will be a high scoring game, but now I think the Giants offense will be whipped by the 4th quarter, so the Eagles might finish this off before it gets to the 2-minute drill. I was gonna go Giants but now I'm thinking Eagles. I'll say Eagles 28-17 (Eagles and the Under)

Bengals @ Bills (-6) (o/u 49)

Okay, game of the year, the game we were expecting a coupla weeks ago (before Damar Hamlin decided we needed a Monday thinking of things more important than football). The Bengals have won 9 straight (oh, the Bills have won 8 straight) and are playing really well, but injuries to the OL could be a sticky wicket for them; the Bills overpowered 14 of their 17 opponents this season (hmmm, honestly you could say that the Jets were the only team to hang a for-real L on this squad this year) but we're down to the quarterfinals now and the Bills defense just isn't up to snuff compared to the remaining teams. That requires Josh Allen to be perfect from here on out and if he's up to it, the Bills can still be the best team; but if he falters at all and he makes it easy on the opposing defense, that's gonna put more pressure on the Bills D that it can bear. The Bengals might be the better team but I'm not totally convinced. I think this is a FG game, the last team to score will likely be the winner. Bills are at home, they got the Hamlin vibe and the big play offense is capable of hanging with anyone. That said, -6 is too damn high--it opened at 3.5, which was too high even then! Gotta take the Bengals to cover. I'll say Bills 34-31 (Bengals and the Over)

Cowboys @ Niners (-4) (o/u 46.5)

I like the Cowboys, at their best they can move the ball and get stops; at their worst, though, the offense stalls and the defense has to do too much. I think the Niners have the better offense and probably the better defense, too. At home, I expect them to get all the luck and that's all just too much for the Cowboys. The Cowboys are nice but not great, but this Niners team might be really really good (yes, even with Brock Purdy!). I gotta go Niners 28-13 (Niners and the Under)

2022-23 NFL Playoffs (Wild Card Round)

Seahawks @ Niners (-9.5) (o/u 42)

(Division game) Tough to beat the same team three times in a season but I think the Niners are just flat out better in every way than the Seahawks and I expect them to come out strong, build up a nice lead and sit on it. I like the Niners to score plenty and I would expect the Seahawks to have some 2nd half garbage time points but I think this game will be over quickly and decisively.  I'll say Niners 31-17 (Niners and the Over). 

Chargers (-1.5) @ Jags (o/u 47)

The Chargers' best game is vastly superior to the Jags' best game, but while the ceiling is higher, the floor might be lower, so if the Chargers do a bunch of dumb Charger shit, the Jags can definitely hang around and steal this. The Jags have been pretty good for the last 6 weeks or so but they're completely green and not as all-around talented as the Chargers. I'd love to think the Chargers are gonna bring their A-game and drop a bomb on the Jags, but I think this will be a close game. I like the Chargers to be up late (but I wouldn't be shcoked if the Jags stole it). I'll say Chargers 24-20 (Chargers and the Under). 

Dolphins @ Bills (-13.5) (o/u 43.5)

(Division game) These teams have already played twice this year; in the first game (in Miami), the Bills outplayed the Dolphins in every way imaginable....except the scoreboard, where the Dolphins stole the W. Then just a few weeks ago (in Buffalo), the Bills got a nice halftime lead and then frittered away the 2nd half and the Tua-led Dolphins made a real game of it. So, they both played well in each other's buildings but lost. If the Dolphins were bringing their full squad, I'd give them a puncher's chance; but without Tua, other injuries on defense, I don't give the Dolphins must chance at all to score. The Bills will run up points but the Dolphins just will not be able to hang. All year long the Bills have played well in the 1st half and then done nothing in the 2nd half and while I'd like to think that is the regular season plan and in the playoffs we can expect a full 60 minutes from the Bills, this new strategy might not start til next week. So I expect the Bills to be up big at halftime and if Tua was in play, the Dolphins might get back into it, but he's not, so I think the Bills will comfortably fritter the 2nd half of this game. I'll say Bills 31-9 (Bills and the Under). 

Giants @ Vikings (-3) (o/u 48)

Okay, this is one where everyone is predicting upset but I gotta say the logic is all wrong. The Vikings are 12-0 in one-score games (1-4 in larger spreads) and the thinking is the Vikings won't keep that streak up forever; I agree, I'm thinking next year that'll go away. But since they started this year 12-0, why are you expecting them to not go 13-0? If these numbers are so important, then why is the 13th game the one that will turn the deviation? I say quit looking at the W's, look at the L's: they lose because they get blown out. So can the Giants blow out the Vikings? Oh, god, no! The Giants are a nice team, but they are a grinding team with a little bit of magic to them, they are built to steal a close game--too bad they're going up against the best close-game team of all time! Do you see where I'm going with this? The syllogism looks like this: The Vikings win close game, the Vikings-Giants game will be close, therefore (x) will win? Why are you trying to say "Giants"? Listen, next week the Vikings will go to San Francisco; the Niners are a team that can blow out the Vikings and that is how the Vikings will lose: in a blowout to a better team. Not in a close game to a lesser team. The Giants will not blow out the Vikings and the Vikings will understand that early and deeply and they will secure the 2nd half and choke the Giants out. I'll say Vikings 21-10 (Vikings and Under).

Ravens @ Bengals (-8.5) (o/u 40.5)

(Division game) These two teams just played last week, Bengals won comfortably. Again: hard to beat the same team thrice in a season but I think the Bengals are the better team, they're playing better and while I think the Ravens have the defense to slow the Bengals down, they do not have the offense to outscore the Bengals. I can see this one being close, the Ravens will play tough, make this hard and hang around. I can't see the Bengals losing this game but I can see them trying to get by with less effort and slogging their way through a harder-than-it-needs-to-be kinda game. I'll say Bengals 24-16 (Ravens and Under). 

Cowboys (-2.5) @ Bucs (o/u 45.5)

Tough to call because I can see either of these teams playing great and I can see either of them playing horribly, so all conceivable possible outcomes are in play. I've watched the Bucs several times this year (including against the Cowboys in Week 1) and I think their defense is not particularly good, the O-line is nothing special, the running game doesn't work and the special teams aren't notable. The Cowboys are good--not great--at just about everything on the field, but they are quite capable of losing focus and looking just godawful on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys are the vastly better team but they can play terrible; the Bucs aren't really good at much but they've got Tom Brady and he is absolutely capable of getting hot and scoring a shit ton of points outta nowhere. I'll stick with the Cowboys just playing better in a relatively close contest. I'll say Cowboys 27-20 (Cowboys and the Over).

2022-23 NCAA Football Finals

Fiesta Bowl: (3) Texas Christian 51-48 (2) Michigan

Peach Bowl: (4) Ohio State 41-42 (1) Georgia

Nat'l Championship: (3) Texas Christian 7-62 (1) Georgia

The highlights tell the tale: TCU was able to pull off the shocker on Michigan, but Ohio State was not quite able to pull off the shocker on Georgia, then Georgia pounded TCU like the Department of Justice going after missing top secret documents. 

I would've preferred putting Ohio State ahead of TCU, which might've given them a better shot to beat Georgia (or maybe not), and would've guaranteed another Buckeye-Wolverine rematch, which would've been the best possible matchup of these four teams. But we got Michigan faltering to TCU's surprisingly good team speed and Ohio State failing to nail the coffin on UGA. As for the championship, I was hanging with a friend and we agreed to commit to the 1st half and then regroup at halftime. Needless to say, the night was pretty much over by the re-grouping. 

Good W for Georgia, they weren't as dominant as last season but they were clearly better than everyone else all year long and you can't front on that. Not sure why Stetson Bennett isn't getting more NFL draft attention, he just won back to back championships (and I'm not particularly impressed with this year's QB group, so why not try to talk the fan base into Stetson? Lovable guy, proven winner, what's not to like (or at least try to like)?

Will UGA be back next year? Well, they'll be working with a new QB and what with Alabama finishing #5 this season, I think we can expect the Tide to be furious next year. Also, I would expect Southern Cal to make a jump, Louisiana State to make a jump, Michigan and Ohio State to be top ten at least, we'll see if Tennessee can be similarly strong or what Notre Dame does (don't sleep on South Bend) and no one knows what to expect of Clemson or the Big 12 in general. So while Georgia will probably be in the top 3 pre-season, I don't think next season will be as easy as this season was. 

For the first time in a while, I expect college football to be a real jumble next year. Could be a vibrant top ten all season long. 

2022 World Cup

France 4-3 (PKs) France

Weird game, probably the most lopsided 3-3 tie I've ever seen in any sport. Put it this way: France had 3 goal scoring chances and they scored all three of them, while Argentina had four million chances and scored three of them. Mbappe had a hat trick and came up big when the time was right, but Messi controlled the game and moved the ball forward for 120 minutes. Argentina more or less dominated the first 70 minutes or so, then France got a PK and a quick follow up (mirroring Argentina's scores from the 1st half) and the game got tight. But, even still, Argentina was the better team, had the better midfield control and was more dangerous around the goal. 

Fun game, the last 40 minutes or so of game time was gripping stuff, but Argentina was clearly the better side throughout and Messi the indisputable MVP.

2022 World Cup (Final)

Semifinals

Argentina 3-0 Croatia

This game was as wide open unpredictable as any match I've seen in ages, maybe like an NCAA Final with two great teams or a Masters where everyone is balling out. I had no idea what would transpire, so when Argentina was up 2-0 at the half, I still figured Croatia could win 3-2--I would not have been shocked. But, man, Messi was so fuckin' good in the 2nd half, just owned the game, took it over like Nikola Jokic: he just did whatever needed to be done like a boss. That third goal was pure Messi, thing o' beauty. I thought the PK that kicked off the scoring in the 1st half was 50/50: there was clearly contact so a replay isn't gonna change anything, I'm just so used to the keeper being given more leeway than everyone else that I'm surprised they called that contact, I thought it was even; Messi nailed the perfect finish (the one Harry Kane couldn't put away against France). Then soon after that Croatia gave up a video game goal: you're playing FIFA, you start thinking about getting an oil change or something, the computer's got the ball but he's not doing anything, you expect the ball to get poked away, it never does, now you're down 2-nothing. It was one of those, not a brilliant play but Argentina, just good ol' persistence kept the possession and went coast to coast with it. Nice work by Argentina, Messi played great, Croatia just never got lucky, made a coupla bonehead plays and that was that. 

France 2-0 Morocco

When Morocco gave up an early goal (5th minute) to France, I wasn't that worried; I knew Morocco wasn't gonna change anything about their game, though maybe they had a chance to get an equalizer. Well, Morocco really did control possession for the most part, but France's counter was pretty good. So even though Morcco held the ball and moved it well for the most part, the French still seemed more dangerous around the goal. When France got that 2nd goal (in the 80th minute), it finally let off the tension, because Morocco really could've tied that game up. Morocco was good at all phases of the game except shooting, they never really get one decent rip in the whole game, even though they held possession well and were sneaky in the offensive mid. But, France was able to overcome the chaos, got two kooky goals out of it and they're moving on. France has the home run potential of Brazil but more confidence in the midfield like Portugal or Spain, they're a good team; but if Morocco had a little more shot making up front, France might be playing the consolation game. 

3) Morocco (legit top notch defense, loved the keeper, their attacking midfield was effective against a lot of different teams; but they're goal scoring just wasn't effective enough; they deserved this run, this is a good squad, though I didn't get a feel for how old/young they are and the African teams are notoriously up and down, so not sure if they'll be nearly as tough in 2026)

4) Croatia (good team, savvy veterans, classy footballers, but they needed some luck and they did not get any against Argentina; Croatia is definitely on the map, their recent success is not a surprised, but I'm not sure this team makes it back in 2026)

Final

Croatia - Morocco

Could be a fun match. Morocco is sturdy, good in defense (though they get stretched on the counter), pretty good holding the ball. Croatia is a veteran side, patient, opportunistic but I think a little more geared toward making the big play than they ought to be. Also, gotta factor in who actually wants to play another game after losing in the semis and who is ready to just go home; I think they'll wanna play and should be rather conservative. I think I like Morocco to find the goal (maybe in OT) and I think Croatia fails to counter. I'll take Morocco.  

France - Argentina

My pre-tourney prediction was Belgium over France in the Final. Belgium did not live up to my expectations--even after they were gifted an opening game W against Canada, a team that more or less dominated them for 89 minutes and 55 seconds. But I'm not shocked to France here in the Final. They've got a ton of talent all over the field, Mbappe has been pretty great and has plenty of speed and moxy to the outside to make plays even at the highest of levels. I've been sandbagging Argentina all the way through because they didn't look special to me and I'm more used to see decline in the older teams; but then again this is the era of Lebron and Tom Brady, Federer and Nadal and, well, Messi. This team is and has been much better than I've given them credit for and their big man is feeling it. I like Argentina, I expect Messi to play the game of his life and while I expect France to be good, they look kinda half-ass to me, like they're waiting for the miracle instead of putting in the work. I think France has the better, younger talent, but I think Argentina is in it to win it like nobody I've seen in a while. I like Argentina (they're playing like they really fucking want it).

2022 World Cup (Semifinals)

Quarterfinals

Brazil 1-2 (PKs) Croatia

Brazil really let this one slip away. If they had put their effort into a for-real half court offense, controlling possession and pushing toward a ball control attack, I'm frickin' positive they would've scored goals. This would've left Croatia no hope but a searching counterattack, which I just don't think would've worked. Brazil scored first in OT but they couldn't parry the final Croatian push and then missed PK after PK (which is pretty un-Brazil, no?).  Croatia is a nice team, loads of veteran savvy and pride and while they don't have the depth of talent that Brazil possesses, Croatia was able to put together a cohesive game plan and Brazil didn't. 

Netherlands 2-3 (PKs) Argentina

Thought it was notable that all that Dutch youth wilted in OT and the Argentines dominated the attack late. Felt like the Dutch had their chance to establish the tempo early (nope) and still they could have come on late (got an equalizer, but I was thinking of a game winner or at least a dominant possession attack), but they didn't do either of those things, nor did they do anything in OT. So Argentina is moving on, the veteran savvy still getting it done (though I'm still dubious of how good they actually are). 

Portugal 0-1 Morocco

Not the most exciting game. Morocco got their goal (nice header off a long cross) and they made it hold up. I thought Portugal was old and that Morocco was underrated and that's how this match played out. 

France 2-1 England

Man, France was the better team with the deeper talent but England had their chance to extend the match but Harry Kane missed a late PK (ouch, that one's gonna hang in English lore for a long long time) and France is moving on. France has so much talent all over the field, Mbappe still has another level to get to (watch out, Morocco!), and that offense can score a ton real fast. France is the best of the remaining sides, not a slam dunk, but I'd say they're the team to beat. 

5) Brazil (this is disappointing, this team could've won it all and they didn't even score on Croatia in 90 minutes nor did they keep their advantage or shine out in PKs; Brazil has been weird for, like, 20 years now, they still got the talent, but are they ever going to find the coach that pulls it together?)

6) England (loaded with stars (but is that the same as 'talent'?), feels like they had a disappointing run but I'd say top 8 is a pretty good result; this could be one the old head teams in 2026)

7) Netherlands (good young squad, definitely could've bested Argentina, they just didn't; I'm guessing they'll still be good in 2026)

8) Portugal (one last run with the old guard, feels like this team will totally different in 2026)

Semifinals

Argentina - Croatia

Two oldhead squads that shouldn't have made it this far--and one of them is to going to the Finals! I dunno, man, this match could go in any direction, I can see either team getting hot and winning big, I can see either team stealing it late, I can see either team winning in OT or PKs. This one is wide open, I suspect the Man of the Match will be someone unpredictable. 

France - Morocco

France is the better team, Morocco's goalie has really been kinda great so far, if he can keep them in the match, then Morocco can certainly pull off the upset. But I don't think that happens, I think (unlike Brazil), France will concoct the proper game plan and will execute it to victory. Feels like France might drop bombs on the Moroccans late, we'll see, but this could an onslaught for the French.