Democrats
Clinton 49.9%
Sanders 49.6%
On the one hand a draw in Iowa is rather embarrassing for Hillary; on the other, this (and New Hampshire) are likely to be Sanders' most favorable states so a strong showing shouldn't be a shock. The Sanders camp is pleased with a draw--they never expected to be near Hillary, I reckon. But is this really a worthwhile result? Can he parlay being almost as good as Hillary in Iowa and New Hampshire into something meaningful across the rest of the country? I don't know if Sanders has the money or the infrastructure to make a deep run but I know Hillary does. I don't know if Sanders will make it to Super Tuesday but I know Hillary will. Sanders has to play this up for all its worth...because its only worth what he can convince people to believe. I think this only makes Hillary stronger, it gives her something to do until the Republicans figure out their end, it puts her in touch with the areas of the electorate she might've otherwise ignored, it forces her to dive into subjects she might yet be prepared for. I can't help thinking that a challenge is a blessing in disguise for Hillary. (Shame about old...what was his name? O'malley?)
Republicans
Cruz 27.7%
I said 27% and a 1st place finish, I did all right with that one. For the last coupla months Cruz's play has been to bang on Trump as a means of establishing himself and simultaneously establishing Trump so the two could pair up and ditch the rest of the phony (re: real) Republicans. But once Cruz surpasses Trump, he accidentally weakens them both: by aiming at Trump, Cruz could ignore the rest of the field and pretend to be above them, sequestering all the media buzz with those two at the top and leaving everyone else out. But that only works if Trump is #1 and Cruz #2. If Trump isn't #1 then he has no support at all and if Cruz is more than #2 the voters will start to get shaky. Now the door is open for Rubio to move past both of them and if Cruz can't stand alone then his political career is pretty much finished (he is a uniquely unpopular guy in the real world of politics). I'm not so sure the hardcore New Hampshire right wingers will take to Cruz the way Iowans did.
Trump 24.3%
I said 22% and a 3rd place finish, I wasn't too far off. Trump had the luxury of being the most famous guy in Iowa for about 6 months and that means something. Man, Iowa doesn't get to see Lebron or Aaron Rodgers, they don't get NASCAR races or a Jay Z/Beyonce tour. Even though they pride themselves on being politically level-headed, those folks are starved for entertainment and Trump gave them a buzz they don't normally get. Then the vote happened and the show closed after opening night. Can Trump recover in New Hampshire? I don't see it. I went to school with a woman from Nashua, NH and she assured me she'd never vote for anyone if she didn't shake his/her hand. Think about that: 'Sure, I've admired Hillary for decades, followed her career with pride, seen her speak numerous times but I never met her face to face, so....' Yeah, dude, that's how it works in New Hampshire! Is Trump gonna work that hard to woo New Hampshire and will NH be impressed by him? I think 'no' and 'no'. By the time Trump gets to the South, his momentum will be gone, he'll be an emperor with no clothes, the voters will have turned on him and the show will be shut down for good. But Trump gets to take his show to CNN or Bloomberg and preen himself as a guy that's actually involved, a guy whose opinion matters. That's as good as it gets for Trump, he can't do anything where he's not in control of everything. As for New Hampshire, I say he flails badly.
Rubio 23.1%
I had Rubio with 22%, sneaking ahead of Trump for 2nd place, I was close. Rubio is the guy that is supposed to be the Republican nominee but the Trump circus kept him out of the Iowa spotlight for months and Cruz was able to sneak past him. But Rubio still handily dispatched Bush, Christie, Paul and Kasich and that was the competition he was expecting. Iowa is a nice prize but not as necessary as politic-types would have you believe. Rubio's best bet at this point is to simply ignore Trump and direct all attention to Cruz, this will allow him to garner the support of the Bush, Christie and Kasich camps, which consolidates his power within the party. I think Rubio and Cruz finish neck and neck in New Hampshire.
Carson 9.3%
I said 9%, kinda nailed it. Carson seems like a nice guy, he's got something sorta like a vision of the world and I think his supporters really believe in him. But he's a normal citizen, not a political lifer, and the grinding scrutiny of the spotlight is withering him. Can he be a VP? I dunno, he's unique enough that he might not really bring anything to a ticket with Cruz or Rubio. He's got respect within the ranks so perhaps he can garner a cabinet post but where does he fit in? He can't get any of the real sexy spots (Defense, State, Treasury, AG), Veterans Affairs tends to go military, its not like he has Labor chops. That leaves Transportation or Interior and those are either places to bid time or to go to die, neither of which suits what he's got going on. I dunno, maybe he can run for Congress in 2018 or maybe he can be the in-house Republican on MSNBC. I can't see him venturing any further than New Hampshire into the primary season.
Paul 4.5%
I had Paul at 5% just ahead of Bush, I was pretty close. Paul has dropped out, I'm surprised he hung around Iowa as long as he did, hanging around til voting day only showed how little support he actually has. Not a career killer or anything, he can come back in 4 years and start all over. But not the boost he was seeking and certainly not enough to get him toe to toe with Hillary, which is all he's ever wanted. He's a Senator (one of my senators, in point of fact), which gives him time to mature and accrue power (being a Senator is death for a Democrat, what with piling up all that history, but for a Republican it's a career path). Trump stole his radical thunder and gave room to Cruz and Carson which pretty much doomed Paul. Perhaps by 2020 he'll be weird enough to be the weird guy in Iowa.
Bush 2.8%
Bush surely would've liked to do better in Iowa but I think he was always focusing on New Hampshire. The long (looooooooong) run up to Iowa this year allowed Trump to suck the oxygen out of the room, choking Bush (and Fiorina and Christie). But New Hampshire will be a sprint and Bush is probably still as well positioned there as anyone. Bush has no other political prospects than winning the full nomination (nobody wants Jeb Bush as their VP) and he should have the money and infrastructure to keep a race going. So until he just loses all interest in being out there, I expect Bush to make it to Florida, even if he gets trounced in New Hampshire. I expect Bush to show much better in NH, probably chipping into Ben Carson's support. And the folks that aren't sure about Rubio or might have been interested in Paul should fall to Bush.
Fiorina 1.9%
I had Fiorina at 2%, in keeping with the final Des Moines Register poll, and that proved accurate. Fiorina got bumped from the debate, which is a real blow to her campaign. I can understand Bush and Christie getting the invite over Fiorina but why Kasich? What's that dude for anyone lately? Its a shame because raising her profile is all she wants out of her time in New Hampshire and she's probably destined to fail on that. With a debate appearance she can maybe score a cabinet post or offer an interesting female option for a Rubio ticket, but without she's just not visible enough. I can't see her doing much better than in Iowa, where she had a much better chance to succeed.
Kasich 1.9%
I thought Kasich would do better in Iowa, I had him at 3% ahead of Fiorina and he didn't quite match her. So why does the spot in the New Hampshire debate and Fiorina doesn't? I don't see it. Kasich is reasonably thought of as a non-Bush, non-Cruz, non-Trump (and isn't Rand Paul either) that has more experience than Ben Carson. That's gotta be worth something, right? Yeah, I say its a great way to be Transportation Secretary! I would've thought he was better positioned in Iowa than in New Hampshire and he came in 8th, dude. I guess I have to assume he'll finish higher than Fiorina but I'm not sure why.
Huckabee 1.8%
Huckabee did a little better than the 1% I thought he'd get. But it wasn't enough to get him even to New Hampshire. Oh well, he'll just have to write Coulter-ish books for the rest of his life and remind people that he was almost famous for a while.
Christie 1.8%
Christie didn't get to 4% like I thought he would but he was never really built for the midwest. Christie's more of an East Coast guy and I expect him to get a little bump (not unlike Bush) heading into New Hampshire. I don't see him as a VP though if he shows well in New Hampshire and makes it into a few more debates, maybe he's in line for one of the sexy cabinet gigs. There's room enough for Christie to have a nice showing in NH.
Santorum 1.0%
He did poorly as I hoped he would. Good riddance, Santorum, you were my least favorite.
Gilmore 0% (12 votes)
I confess that I don't pay much attention to politics, indeed I've mostly ignored the Iowa nonsense for what seems like years now. But, man, I never heard of Jim Gilmore until his name appeared at the very bottom of the list of candidates. But I guess 12 people in Iowa liked him. If he was a quarterback that might be enough. I know nothing about the guy but I can't rule him out for a non-sexy cabinet post or a return to Iowa in 2020.
Showing posts with label iowa caucus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label iowa caucus. Show all posts
Friday, February 5, 2016
Sunday, January 31, 2016
Iowa Caucus
Sure, why not? I love trying to predict outcomes and elections (regardless of how little they interest me) are excellent opportunities to see into the future. On Monday the fine people of Iowa get to be first in line to decide America's next president. Better them than me.
Looks like Trump is comfortably ahead. But wait: this is a Caucus. You don't just hide behind a curtain for 2 minutes and yank levers and whatnot. In a caucus you actually have to go show your face and convince your fellow citizens which megalomaniac used car salesman should be the leader of the free world. How you respond to a poll question over the phone or on-line doesn't indicate that you'll actually show up for the process or that you'll have the stones to make passionate pleas for clowns like Donald Trump (*) once you get there. The flavor of the month might be Fruit Stripe gum long before the big day arrives. And, indeed, Iowa has a solid history of throwing surprises at the last minute. I'm not at all convinced that these poll numbers are really indicative of how it will all turn out.
Poll from Des Moines Register, Saturday, Jan 30:
Republicans
Trump 28%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 15%
Carson 10%
Paul 5%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 2%
Bush 2%
Huckabee 2%
Santorum 2%
Donald Trump has pretty well held the lead on the Rep side since late summer. Do the people that say they support Trump actually like the guy? Its not a guarantee. Some people enjoy his brand of tomfoolery well enough during the preliminaries but may have no interest in seeing him become president and bidding up his price right before the market opens doesn't mean his IPO will take off. I don't think it will. I've long thought that Trump doesn't even want to be president and has been waiting for the electorate to get rid of him. But, again, his show entertains people and even his enemies have reason to leave him in the game so--to Trump's great surprise--the people still seem to like his spiel. But the run up to the election has its own momentum and I think Trump is kind of a patsy for the machinations of others. The fact that his popularity has stayed high regardless of his increasingly crazy talk is shocking (perhaps sobering) to those of us that figured he was just a flash in the pan. But I can't help thinking that Monday is the end of his run. I say he gets around 22%, finishes 3rd and limps into New Hampshire.
Ted Cruz has a consistency to him, a natural mode of thought and speaking that makes him a pretty solid Republican. But he's combative, an entitled upstart who has rankled his Congressional colleagues, couldn't win a Governor's race in Texas, doesn't have any particular expertise that would earn him a cabinet post and has no real qualification for political office save a megalomaniac desire to win elections. His ceiling is Vice President, don't you think? Look at the guy, he even LOOKS like a Vice President! I'd say his game is nuzzling up to Trump in order to earn enough unique support to add to Trump from the bottom of the ticket. I think his calculations will surprise even himself. I say he gets 27% and wins Iowa on Monday. His own success will surprise him because if he does surpass Trump, he'll have to turn to the rest of the Republican field and will look less and less like a viable candidate. A win in Iowa could actually throw all of his plans into disarray.
Marco Rubio is the guy the real Republican insiders want. They find Cruz to be an annoying jackass, Trump to be a Democrat accidentally let into the big house and Bush to be...well, a Bush. The real Republican insiders are pleased to have Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House and are itching for Trump and Cruz and Bush to just go away so that we get the Rubio show against Hillary. So far the voters have not bought that script and the insiders are biting their nails in hopes that Rubio pulls it out in Iowa. I think once the caucus gets going Trump will fade and Rubio gets a boost. Not enough to win but enough to propel him on to New Hampshire. Trump is the fly in the ointment, Trump is the one giving Cruz credence. If Rubio can get between those two, he's got a real shot to build support beyond Iowa. I say Rubio gets 22%, finishes 2nd (a dead heat with Trump would be a big victory for Rubio).
Remember Ben Carson? Seems like his 15 minutes were up a coupla months ago though he's had a bit of boost recently. The very public nature of running for office seems like more than that guy could stand. He's got enough to go to New Hampshire but if he pulls less than 10% in both of those races, I suspect he rides off into the sunset. I think Carson gets a minor surge (from folks that want an outsider candidate that isn't Trump) that fades, tops out at 9%.
Rand Paul never really got going this time around. The Trump phenomenon was not something he anticipated, I think he was prepared to present himself as the outsider compared to Bush and Christie and Rubio but Trump sucked up his oxygen, he had nowhere else to go. I'm a little surprised he's still around, sometimes its better to disappear than stick around and be defeated (hey, Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty can come back in the future without a shellacking in Iowa on their resumes). Frankly, Paul was always running against Hillary and never properly settled into the Republican milieu. I think Paul misplayed his hand, didn't correct for the change in conditions, isn't really right for a cabinet post, hasn't raised his stature in the Senate and probably only lowers his chances in New Hampshire by getting drubbed in Iowa. I doubt he gets 5% and the only way he comes back in 2020 is by making himself an even crazier Libertarian-type outsider (which could work if Hillary's the incumbent).
Chris Christie never took off in Iowa but he probably fancies himself a New Hampshire man anyway. If he can stay ahead of Paul and Bush, then that's good enough to re-start him in the next race. Christie definitely has cabinet potential and (I dunno) perhaps this can raise his profile for a run for Congress out of New Jersey. He's got aspirations that go beyond just running for president so I suspect he keeps running until he can align himself with the winner or the party itself or the New Jersey party apparatus. If he gets 7%, he would call that a huge victory and charge hard into New Hampshire. I don't think he gets there but he'll keep going anyway. I say Christie gets 4%.
John Kasich...I dunno who he is. He's governor of Ohio, maybe thinks he can run for Senate or thinks he can get a cabinet post. His ambitions have to be larger than just running for president, so like Christie, if he can top 5% and/or sneak ahead of Paul, he'll pat himself on the back and keep charging until somebody somewhere gives him a job. I'll say he gets 3%.
Carly Fiorina is auditioning for a cabinet post or maybe a Senate run. (Personal aside) Here in Kentucky I continually ponder the future of John Calipari (waaaaaay more important than the President of the USA to me). Cal gets rumored to all sorts of NBA teams and I am convinced none of those (for now) are right for him and he won't leave Kentucky; but, he has to do this dance to keep his profile high enough to get an annual raise and to keep him in line for the job he really wants, which I think is Team USA. Fiorina, likewise, has to do these things to seem vital, to look important and connected. Does she want Barbara Boxer's senate seat? I dunno. Does she want to be Marco Rubio's VP? I dunno. Does she want to be Trump's Labor Secretary? I dunno. Does she want to be the next CEO of Yahoo? I dunno. But she must want something apart from being President of the United States and this run in Iowa is all about keeping her profile high enough to get her another job/post down the line. I doubt we've seen the end of Carly Fiorina but I'd be surprised to see her in Republican debates after New Hampshire. I suspect the 2% of this poll is solidly for her and I think they're not for Trump or Cruz or Rubio or Bush or Christie or Paul, so I reckon she'll keep that 2% but I don't see her support growing.
Jeb Bush is just waiting for the right moment to show off that he's an actual adult amidst a bunch of right wing loud mouths. I lived in Florida when he was originally running for governor and I found him to be quite a strange candidate, certainly not like any Republican I'd ever seen. That was before his bro became president and turned the family name to mud. Jeb doesn't particularly impress me as a candidate but nor does he repel me. Unfortunately for him I think this is the end of his political career. No one wants him for VP and he doesn't seem to be auditioning for a cabinet post, so if he doesn't make it to the Florida primary (March 15) then I don't think we'll ever see that guy again. That said, this leads me to think that he's in it for the long haul: he's got money, he's got a fair amount of campaign infrastructure and he's already picked his fight with fellow Floridian Rubio that'll be tough to back down from. I think he's in it to win it and I think he will hang around through February. So while it would be nice for him to win Iowa, losing isn't necessarily a deterrence to him. Bush gets 4%.
Mike Huckabee is a previous winner of the Iowa Caucus, winning back in 2008. He rode his victory in Iowa to...well, nothing....and then into a show on Fox News. If you can't beat 'em on the campaign trail, get yourself a cable show and keep the mud slinging going year round. Since he won here before, I guess he thought he could win again or at least get high profile enough to score a VP nod (or maybe just get a better time slot on Fox). Huckabee has tried to cozy up to Trump but I don't see how he fits into Trump's puzzle, so I think the next time we see Huckabee in Iowa it'll be as a correspondent for Fox News rather than a candidate. I say Huckabee tops out at 2%. stealing the last of the Santorum crowd.
Rick Santorum is the defending champ in the Iowa Caucus, surprise winner back in 2012. Its true I can't stand any of these guys but I can't help but acknowledge that I loathe Santorum more than the rest and I'm more than a little pleased that the voters of Iowa have not fallen for his insufferable petulance a 2nd time. Whew! Hopefully he'll go back to Pennsylvania and just be a regional disaster instead of a national one. He's too self-obsessed to be a cabinet officer and I don't see this as his return to Congress, so I suspect (and hope) that this is the last we'll see of Santorum. As for his result, I don't guess he tops 1%.
Cruz 27%, Rubio 22%, Trump 22%, Carson 9%, Bush 4%, Christie 4%, Paul 4%, Kasich 3%, Fiorina 2%, Huckabee 2%, Santorum 0%
Poll from Real Clear Politics, Friday, Jan 29:
Democrats
Clinton 48%
Sanders 40%
O'malley 7%
I'll admit: since roughly this time in 2012, I've thought Hillary Clinton would be the next president. When the Republicans couldn't come up with anyone better than Mitt Romney, it seemed to me that Clinton was the obvious choice for 2016. She's faced a surprise challenge from Sanders but I suspect that will only make her stronger in the long run. The Dems and Reps are all backwards at this point: Republicans tend to choose the dullest guy that came in 2nd last time while the Democrats love to chase after rabble rousers with no history. But this time around, the Dems have (seemingly) settled into the rather dull, establishment candidate while the Reps are clutching at weirdos coming out of the woodwork. Yeah, I'll say it: Hillary is a boring candidate and her relative lack of rabble-rousing-ness is surely the underlying problem with her campaign. That said, I think the Left will continue to line up behind her as the first Tuesday of November approaches. I think Clinton supporters will turn out (and Sanders supporters won't), I think she surges to 50% which would look like a massive victory.
Sanders is the fave of lefty college kids who don't know how anything actually works. Sanders's blather is particularly galling to me but everyone thinks he's in touch and forward thinking. (Sanders taps into the irrational belief people have that government actually does stuff when I'm convinced it really only un-does stuff; but that's my personal prejudice) If the kids turn out, Sanders could get up toward 40% but I suspect that doesn't happen and he struggles to get 35%.
O'Malley...I don't know who he is...I'm more familiar guys at the end of the Denver Nuggets bench than I am with the lower level functionaries of the Democratic Party. I assume he's merely here to audition for a cabinet post or just to get some buzz going for the next time around. The conspiracy theory is that Clinton needs O'Malley to siphon support from Sanders, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him bump up to 10%. But higher than that seems virtually impossible.
Clinton 50%, Sanders 35%, O'Malley 9%.
(*) I don't mean to pick on Trump, I don't like any of these people. To me this is all about as interesting as Div. III hockey, I see no one to love or admire here, just a collection of teams I would never spend a minute watching on a Saturday afternoon. But this is my country so I'm supposed to pretend like this stuff matters and the only way I can do so is to handicap the race (despite my ignorance of how these races have gone to this point). The President of the United States is a position of vast responsibility and very little power, can't for the life of me figure out why anyone would want the job (the ultimate dead end job, if you think about it). But every 4 years we manage to belch up plenty of self-aggrandizing exaggerators that need your love. I'd recommend just jerking off and ignoring this nonsense--your government would be a lot better off for it!--but no one ever takes my advice. Oh well.
Looks like Trump is comfortably ahead. But wait: this is a Caucus. You don't just hide behind a curtain for 2 minutes and yank levers and whatnot. In a caucus you actually have to go show your face and convince your fellow citizens which megalomaniac used car salesman should be the leader of the free world. How you respond to a poll question over the phone or on-line doesn't indicate that you'll actually show up for the process or that you'll have the stones to make passionate pleas for clowns like Donald Trump (*) once you get there. The flavor of the month might be Fruit Stripe gum long before the big day arrives. And, indeed, Iowa has a solid history of throwing surprises at the last minute. I'm not at all convinced that these poll numbers are really indicative of how it will all turn out.
Republicans
Trump 28%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 15%
Carson 10%
Paul 5%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 2%
Bush 2%
Huckabee 2%
Santorum 2%
Donald Trump has pretty well held the lead on the Rep side since late summer. Do the people that say they support Trump actually like the guy? Its not a guarantee. Some people enjoy his brand of tomfoolery well enough during the preliminaries but may have no interest in seeing him become president and bidding up his price right before the market opens doesn't mean his IPO will take off. I don't think it will. I've long thought that Trump doesn't even want to be president and has been waiting for the electorate to get rid of him. But, again, his show entertains people and even his enemies have reason to leave him in the game so--to Trump's great surprise--the people still seem to like his spiel. But the run up to the election has its own momentum and I think Trump is kind of a patsy for the machinations of others. The fact that his popularity has stayed high regardless of his increasingly crazy talk is shocking (perhaps sobering) to those of us that figured he was just a flash in the pan. But I can't help thinking that Monday is the end of his run. I say he gets around 22%, finishes 3rd and limps into New Hampshire.
Ted Cruz has a consistency to him, a natural mode of thought and speaking that makes him a pretty solid Republican. But he's combative, an entitled upstart who has rankled his Congressional colleagues, couldn't win a Governor's race in Texas, doesn't have any particular expertise that would earn him a cabinet post and has no real qualification for political office save a megalomaniac desire to win elections. His ceiling is Vice President, don't you think? Look at the guy, he even LOOKS like a Vice President! I'd say his game is nuzzling up to Trump in order to earn enough unique support to add to Trump from the bottom of the ticket. I think his calculations will surprise even himself. I say he gets 27% and wins Iowa on Monday. His own success will surprise him because if he does surpass Trump, he'll have to turn to the rest of the Republican field and will look less and less like a viable candidate. A win in Iowa could actually throw all of his plans into disarray.
Marco Rubio is the guy the real Republican insiders want. They find Cruz to be an annoying jackass, Trump to be a Democrat accidentally let into the big house and Bush to be...well, a Bush. The real Republican insiders are pleased to have Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House and are itching for Trump and Cruz and Bush to just go away so that we get the Rubio show against Hillary. So far the voters have not bought that script and the insiders are biting their nails in hopes that Rubio pulls it out in Iowa. I think once the caucus gets going Trump will fade and Rubio gets a boost. Not enough to win but enough to propel him on to New Hampshire. Trump is the fly in the ointment, Trump is the one giving Cruz credence. If Rubio can get between those two, he's got a real shot to build support beyond Iowa. I say Rubio gets 22%, finishes 2nd (a dead heat with Trump would be a big victory for Rubio).
Remember Ben Carson? Seems like his 15 minutes were up a coupla months ago though he's had a bit of boost recently. The very public nature of running for office seems like more than that guy could stand. He's got enough to go to New Hampshire but if he pulls less than 10% in both of those races, I suspect he rides off into the sunset. I think Carson gets a minor surge (from folks that want an outsider candidate that isn't Trump) that fades, tops out at 9%.
Rand Paul never really got going this time around. The Trump phenomenon was not something he anticipated, I think he was prepared to present himself as the outsider compared to Bush and Christie and Rubio but Trump sucked up his oxygen, he had nowhere else to go. I'm a little surprised he's still around, sometimes its better to disappear than stick around and be defeated (hey, Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty can come back in the future without a shellacking in Iowa on their resumes). Frankly, Paul was always running against Hillary and never properly settled into the Republican milieu. I think Paul misplayed his hand, didn't correct for the change in conditions, isn't really right for a cabinet post, hasn't raised his stature in the Senate and probably only lowers his chances in New Hampshire by getting drubbed in Iowa. I doubt he gets 5% and the only way he comes back in 2020 is by making himself an even crazier Libertarian-type outsider (which could work if Hillary's the incumbent).
Chris Christie never took off in Iowa but he probably fancies himself a New Hampshire man anyway. If he can stay ahead of Paul and Bush, then that's good enough to re-start him in the next race. Christie definitely has cabinet potential and (I dunno) perhaps this can raise his profile for a run for Congress out of New Jersey. He's got aspirations that go beyond just running for president so I suspect he keeps running until he can align himself with the winner or the party itself or the New Jersey party apparatus. If he gets 7%, he would call that a huge victory and charge hard into New Hampshire. I don't think he gets there but he'll keep going anyway. I say Christie gets 4%.
John Kasich...I dunno who he is. He's governor of Ohio, maybe thinks he can run for Senate or thinks he can get a cabinet post. His ambitions have to be larger than just running for president, so like Christie, if he can top 5% and/or sneak ahead of Paul, he'll pat himself on the back and keep charging until somebody somewhere gives him a job. I'll say he gets 3%.
Carly Fiorina is auditioning for a cabinet post or maybe a Senate run. (Personal aside) Here in Kentucky I continually ponder the future of John Calipari (waaaaaay more important than the President of the USA to me). Cal gets rumored to all sorts of NBA teams and I am convinced none of those (for now) are right for him and he won't leave Kentucky; but, he has to do this dance to keep his profile high enough to get an annual raise and to keep him in line for the job he really wants, which I think is Team USA. Fiorina, likewise, has to do these things to seem vital, to look important and connected. Does she want Barbara Boxer's senate seat? I dunno. Does she want to be Marco Rubio's VP? I dunno. Does she want to be Trump's Labor Secretary? I dunno. Does she want to be the next CEO of Yahoo? I dunno. But she must want something apart from being President of the United States and this run in Iowa is all about keeping her profile high enough to get her another job/post down the line. I doubt we've seen the end of Carly Fiorina but I'd be surprised to see her in Republican debates after New Hampshire. I suspect the 2% of this poll is solidly for her and I think they're not for Trump or Cruz or Rubio or Bush or Christie or Paul, so I reckon she'll keep that 2% but I don't see her support growing.
Jeb Bush is just waiting for the right moment to show off that he's an actual adult amidst a bunch of right wing loud mouths. I lived in Florida when he was originally running for governor and I found him to be quite a strange candidate, certainly not like any Republican I'd ever seen. That was before his bro became president and turned the family name to mud. Jeb doesn't particularly impress me as a candidate but nor does he repel me. Unfortunately for him I think this is the end of his political career. No one wants him for VP and he doesn't seem to be auditioning for a cabinet post, so if he doesn't make it to the Florida primary (March 15) then I don't think we'll ever see that guy again. That said, this leads me to think that he's in it for the long haul: he's got money, he's got a fair amount of campaign infrastructure and he's already picked his fight with fellow Floridian Rubio that'll be tough to back down from. I think he's in it to win it and I think he will hang around through February. So while it would be nice for him to win Iowa, losing isn't necessarily a deterrence to him. Bush gets 4%.
Mike Huckabee is a previous winner of the Iowa Caucus, winning back in 2008. He rode his victory in Iowa to...well, nothing....and then into a show on Fox News. If you can't beat 'em on the campaign trail, get yourself a cable show and keep the mud slinging going year round. Since he won here before, I guess he thought he could win again or at least get high profile enough to score a VP nod (or maybe just get a better time slot on Fox). Huckabee has tried to cozy up to Trump but I don't see how he fits into Trump's puzzle, so I think the next time we see Huckabee in Iowa it'll be as a correspondent for Fox News rather than a candidate. I say Huckabee tops out at 2%. stealing the last of the Santorum crowd.
Rick Santorum is the defending champ in the Iowa Caucus, surprise winner back in 2012. Its true I can't stand any of these guys but I can't help but acknowledge that I loathe Santorum more than the rest and I'm more than a little pleased that the voters of Iowa have not fallen for his insufferable petulance a 2nd time. Whew! Hopefully he'll go back to Pennsylvania and just be a regional disaster instead of a national one. He's too self-obsessed to be a cabinet officer and I don't see this as his return to Congress, so I suspect (and hope) that this is the last we'll see of Santorum. As for his result, I don't guess he tops 1%.
Cruz 27%, Rubio 22%, Trump 22%, Carson 9%, Bush 4%, Christie 4%, Paul 4%, Kasich 3%, Fiorina 2%, Huckabee 2%, Santorum 0%
Poll from Real Clear Politics, Friday, Jan 29:
Democrats
Clinton 48%
Sanders 40%
O'malley 7%
I'll admit: since roughly this time in 2012, I've thought Hillary Clinton would be the next president. When the Republicans couldn't come up with anyone better than Mitt Romney, it seemed to me that Clinton was the obvious choice for 2016. She's faced a surprise challenge from Sanders but I suspect that will only make her stronger in the long run. The Dems and Reps are all backwards at this point: Republicans tend to choose the dullest guy that came in 2nd last time while the Democrats love to chase after rabble rousers with no history. But this time around, the Dems have (seemingly) settled into the rather dull, establishment candidate while the Reps are clutching at weirdos coming out of the woodwork. Yeah, I'll say it: Hillary is a boring candidate and her relative lack of rabble-rousing-ness is surely the underlying problem with her campaign. That said, I think the Left will continue to line up behind her as the first Tuesday of November approaches. I think Clinton supporters will turn out (and Sanders supporters won't), I think she surges to 50% which would look like a massive victory.
Sanders is the fave of lefty college kids who don't know how anything actually works. Sanders's blather is particularly galling to me but everyone thinks he's in touch and forward thinking. (Sanders taps into the irrational belief people have that government actually does stuff when I'm convinced it really only un-does stuff; but that's my personal prejudice) If the kids turn out, Sanders could get up toward 40% but I suspect that doesn't happen and he struggles to get 35%.
O'Malley...I don't know who he is...I'm more familiar guys at the end of the Denver Nuggets bench than I am with the lower level functionaries of the Democratic Party. I assume he's merely here to audition for a cabinet post or just to get some buzz going for the next time around. The conspiracy theory is that Clinton needs O'Malley to siphon support from Sanders, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him bump up to 10%. But higher than that seems virtually impossible.
Clinton 50%, Sanders 35%, O'Malley 9%.
(*) I don't mean to pick on Trump, I don't like any of these people. To me this is all about as interesting as Div. III hockey, I see no one to love or admire here, just a collection of teams I would never spend a minute watching on a Saturday afternoon. But this is my country so I'm supposed to pretend like this stuff matters and the only way I can do so is to handicap the race (despite my ignorance of how these races have gone to this point). The President of the United States is a position of vast responsibility and very little power, can't for the life of me figure out why anyone would want the job (the ultimate dead end job, if you think about it). But every 4 years we manage to belch up plenty of self-aggrandizing exaggerators that need your love. I'd recommend just jerking off and ignoring this nonsense--your government would be a lot better off for it!--but no one ever takes my advice. Oh well.
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