Wednesday, November 10, 2021

2021-22 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 3)

Waivings

Raptors waive Sam Dekker

I always liked Dekker, his athleticism is potent, I'm surprised he never could find a place in the NBA. The Raptors were either the best shot he ever had or the worst: the deep rotation seems like it would give him playing time but also might swallow up his contribution. This was probably the last go-round for Dekker because the struggling teams have too much youth to give him playing time, so from here I think he has to catch on with the Lakers or Nets (re: teams that just need cheap bodies to fill time). 

Injuries

Currently in "health & safety protocols": 

Joel Embiid (Sixers), Lauri Markannen (Cavs), Matisse Thybulle (Sixers), Isaiah Joe (Sixers), Jakob Poeltl (Spurs), Trey Burke (Mavs), Tobias Harris (Sixers), Kevin Love (Cavs); (Al Horford (Celtics), Jaylen Brown (Celtics), Khem Birch (Raptors) have all missed games in "health & safety protocols" this season, as well)

Okay, I'll be that guy....from the list above who is the one that stands out? Did you say 'Trey Burke'? Congratulations! You got it: Burke is the one dude that doesn't actually have Covid. Meaning he's the only one from this list to be getting docked pay for missing these games. 

Listen: the way to avoid the virus is to socially distance and wear a mask in social circumstances. Even the CDC will tell you social distancing is the only thing that truly keeps you from getting the virus.  Vaccinating is fine but it doesn't keep people--even NBA players--from getting and passing the virus. Are they passing the virus? Well, there's a lot of teammates listed above. I don't feel like I'm going way out on a limb to speculate that they're either getting the virus in the same place (re: a team function) or literally giving it to each other. The only way to avoid the virus is to socially distance and wear the mask. The vaccine doesn't change that and to mandate the vaccine is to ignore best practices (social distancing and masking) to reach for a medication that these world class athletes probably don't need. So is this about health and safety or is it simply about following rules--specifically forcing celebrities to kowtow to conventional wisdom? 

And since following the rules in this case (re: getting vaxxed) is not the best practice for avoiding the virus (even the CDC will tell you social distancing and masking come before getting the vaccine), why would we be legislating less than optimal practice if the point of it all is health?

The NBA created these protocols and demanded all players get vaccinated for the purpose of minimizing outbreaks. But we still have outbreaks--more than last year when we didn't have the vaccine! Because the players are vaccinated the fact that they relieved themselves the basic practice of avoiding the virus (re: social distancing and masking) gets ignored and they are not punished. Meanwhile, Burke is getting fined and punished and isn't allowed to play and has not contracted the virus or nor has infected a teammate. The lesson is: if you're vaccinated, then you don't have to follow best practices (...and that strikes me as an incredibly unhealthy policy). 

The vaccinated are abrogating their responsibilities because they believe the vaccine alone solves all problems. It does not. You need to socially distance and wear a mask. The vaccine has nothing to do with it. And for the NBA to pretend otherwise makes them morally bankrupt--and just completely full of shit.

Do we care about health or just rules? Is the mission to keep yourself safe or is it to do what the NBA tells you to do? And what do you do when the NBA directives don't keep your team safe? And why are we punishing Trey Burke again? What did he do? Oh right: he's the only one I know that is actually socially distanced (re: the only one actually taking the health of his teammates seriously).

MVP watch

I thought I'd focus on two stats I've never really paid much attention to: PER and Win Shares. I don't really know how they work, merely that they produce a list of guys that seem eligible for an MVP. 

38 players with a PER above 20.00 (#38 Carmelo Anthony (Lakers)). The top nine:

35.0 Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), 31.5 Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), 29.2 Jimmy Butler (Heat), 29.1 Kevin Durant (Nets), 26.8 Steph Curry (Warriors), 26.3 Rudy Gobert (Jazz), 25.8 Montrezl Harrell (Wizards), 25.6 Anthony Davis (Lakers), 25.6 DeMar DeRozan (Bulls)

Okay, I like 'Trez as much as the next guy, but I kinda feel like he's the one that's not gonna be around by the end of the season (hey, I might be wrong). And similarly, I just can't wrap my head around Gobert as an actual MVP. 

The other 7, though, oh yeah, those guys are balling at a supremely high level and I would not be shocked at all if that's your top 7 in MVP voting in May.

The top 12 in Win Shares:

2.4 Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), 2.4 Jimmy Butler (Heat), 2.0 Kevin Durant (Nets), 1.9 Rudy Gobert (Jazz), 1.9 Harrison Barnes (Kings), 1.9 Steph Curry (Warriors), 1.8 Montrezl Harrell (Wizards), 1.8 Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), 1.7 Jarrett Allen (Cavs), 1.7 DeMar DeRozan (Bulls), 1.5 Richaun Holmes (Kings), 1.5 John Collins (Hawks)

(How do the Kings have two guys in the top 12?)

Jokic is the man, he's balling out hard and is the clear leader of that team in every way. (Missing a game for crushing on Marcus Morris, who cheap shotted him...is anyone on the Morris side of this debate?)

Butler is balling but more he's presiding over the team rather than doing it all (like Jokic), a different kind of MVP; Butler and Jokic are totally capable of keeping it up for 82 games, this could be good from wire to wire.

KD is still amazing. He just scores whenever he feels like scoring, effortlessly gets every shot he wants (even Kobe had to work for it), he's like Dirk but still way more athletic than Dirk ever was and still a solid defender. (I'm starting to worry that a full year of an absent Kyrie and fat Vegas Harden might not be great for KD, I'm suddenly rooting for the Nets just for KD)

Gobert's defensive metrics are just reliably awesome year after year. 

Barnes and Holmes in the top 12? That feels like a flaw in the metric, it's overcounting something that is less significant then it seems. 

Steph is good as ever, man. He feels like he's added some Kyrie to his game. He's always had the feints and the stepovers and but he's looking to really get defenders off balance rather than just get to his spot, I'm not saying he's trying to embarrass dudes but he's upped his flair and when he's rolling, man, he's still as awesome to watch as anyone I've ever seen (prime Jordan or Magic or Bird or Iverson or Duncan or Lebron or Shaq...Steph hangs with all those dudes). This Warriors team has the vibe, perfect environment for adding Wiseman, then Klay, these guys could be really fuckin' good come playoff time.

Montrzel Harrell, off to the good start in Washington. I can see him maintaining his value (I see him as a more athletic version of Ben Wallace) but, that said, its moments like these that I remember that I don't really know what Win Shares is, not sure I even understand the fundamental concept that is being measured here. It just seems to capture a bunch of dudes that seem like they could truly be the best players in the league (and then a bunch of Kings for some reason). The Wizards have had a very good start to the season, probably their best in years. If the Wizards make the playoffs (especially if they're top 6), then Trez will get MVP votes, right? For now, looks like he deserves 'em. 

Giannis is just getting warmed up. The Bucks have only been so-so early on but they're playing hard and they'll still be playing well hard everyone else starts getting tired. And Giannis is awesome. 

Allen has really blossomed as a shot blocker, rebounder and all-round defensive havoc-maker and that's a good thing. The DPOY talent has emerged with the addition of Evan Mobley (I'm calling ROY right now). The Cavs might not have staying power but I think they will, I use to see that roster as chaotic and redundant, but Mobley is so awesome that now the roster seems perfectly constructed for depth. I think the Cavs are for real, I think they're gonna hang around and legit be in the running for 4th or 5th.  

DeRozan is hooping. The key to the Bulls is the Lonzo-Vucevic connection, which allows to DeRozan and LaVine (#15 in Win Shares) to freelance and devastate at will. I think they can keep it up, I think the hot start is the sign of a good veteran team that's ready to win (though none of the main dudes ever really have before). 

Back to the Kings...I like Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes, both of those dudes are great to watch, great vets to build around, both have attractive contracts, and I love all the young talent Sactown always has. But I still don't see the Kings being very good. 1) DeAron Fox looks out of it, man, he's ready to be traded (to Philly for Ben Simmons?). 2) Not playing Marvin Bagley is just weird, considering that the perfect version of Bagley is a stretch-5, runs the floor, could defend on the wing, finish on the break, finish in traffic--all of which would be perfect on this Kings team! If he can play, then play him. And if he can't play, then you're just lowering his trade value by sitting him; I don't get it, I don't get what they're doing. 3) I still don't buy Walton as a coach. Seems like a nice cheerleader but I don't see what he's bringing to the sideline every day. 4) Feels like the team wants to coalesce around Halliburton-Mitchell-Barnes-Holmes. This team needs to be pruned.

John Collins has a higher Win Shares than Trae Young? Again, what exactly does this metric actually measure? I see little numbers, what do they mean? What is Win Shares trying to tell us? Because if you're trying to make me believe that Collins contributes more to team wins than  Young, I would say I don't believe you and I don't care about your math if it give you this result. I like Collins, a helluva player. But he's not more valuable than Young, I don't believe it, I don't buy it, I ain't with it. 

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