NBA Preview (East)

Bulls (57 wins).  I was a believer in the Bulls last year and though they've seemingly added nothing, I'm even more of a believer going into this year. (Well, for the regular season anyway) My rationale last year was that they had enough offense to not have to rely on Derrick Rose and I'm still buying that thesis. Personally I think Bobby Portis can play and could be very useful even as a rookie, I think Hoiberg will get something out of Doug McDermott who wasn't able to contribute much last year and I think they'll start the season with expectations of Mirotic. I think letting go of Thibodeau in favor of da Mayor Fred Hoiberg will bring more offensive efficiency without sacrificing any of the D (the good parts of the Thibs influence will remain while the negative parts are gone). Pau looks reinvigorated, Butler is ready to be a steady star, Noah will be free of the Thibs-abuse and if Rose shows up, the Bulls could be really really dangerous. As it is, I think they've got enough to take the #1 spot in the East.

Cavs (53). The Cavs are clearly the favorite in the East but they're starting the season with a lot of injuries: Love, Kyrie, Shumpert all still potentially out, Mozgov rounding into shape after off-season surgery and who knows what's up with Thompson. As the health gets back in line, the Cavs will be fine and even with all those variables, they'll still win a ton of games, especially after the all-star break.

Heat (51). I really like this Heat roster but it'll take them a while to figure how they fit together. Wade needs service, Dragic can adapt, Bosh needs to see what everyone else is doing, Winslow could be a baller but for now he's just a rookie, McRoberts is coming off an injury, Whiteside has had exactly 1 nice year in this league. As tantalizing as that group is, there are still a lot of what-ifs in there. I think they're gonna be real good though and once they get going, they could be legit contenders in the playoffs (though health could be a serious concern by then).

Wizards (50). Wall is ready to be a big star and while I like the team currently constructed, I can see them ready to deal at the deadline so this roster might noticeably different by the end of the season. Porter is ready to be a real contributor, Beal needs to stay healthy to have a solid season and I'm curious to see rookie Kelly Oubre, he might be really good. They beat the Bulls 2 year ago, the Raptors last year, I think they expect to make the 2nd round and--with the right roster moves--could be ready to sneak into the conference finals.

Hawks (50). I like the Hawks but I don't love them. I think they overachieved last year and while I like the addition of Tiago Splitter, I don't like the loss of Demarre Carrol and I'm dubious on Dennis Shroeder and Tim Hardaway Jr. I just don't see the depth there and there has been enough re-shuffling that it might take a while for them to find themselves. Horford's in a contract year, he'll be balling (and could be the tastiest trade bait available if the Hawks season goes sideways).

Raptors (45). I thought the Raptors went out ugly last year, I expected the full-on fire sale in the off-season and that didn't really materialize. The changes though are kinda weird: Cory Joseph (hometown hero) is a nice player, we'll see what he does with more minutes; can they make something out of Anthony Bennett (another hometown hero)? If so, he'll be the bargain of the year, if not he might be a serious bringdown on the team; are Caboclo and Noquiera ready for prime time?; is Derozan more valuable as tradebait? The Lowry-Carroll-Valenciunas trio seems to be set for the next coupla years, we'll see if its gonna work.

Bucks (42). Everybody's favorite bust-out team, I look forward to watching them because I love all the young talent. But I'm not so sure they're gonna win and I don't think they'll be winning in the playoffs this year. MCW, Middleton, Antetokounpo, Jabari and Monroe makes for a nice starting five but so far none of those guys have been anywhere or done anything, it'll take a Herculean effort to do some real damage. I like 'em, I'll be watching but my expectations are tempered for now.

Celtics (41). The C's way overachieved last year. They've got the best coach in the league (let me repeat that: BEST COACH IN THE LEAGUE) and they play with a lot of heart. But their ability to sneak up on people will be vastly diminished this year and they're still in that annoying place of having a lot of 'nice' players but no real star to take over. David Lee is a solid veteran but he's not gonna carry a team, Isiah Thomas wants to start but I suspect his efficiency plummets the more he plays, Evan Turner could be a catalyst or a distraction. I still love the coach (best in the league) and there's nothing wrong the team but I just don't see how they're really any better than they were last year. GM Danny Ainge has been trying to wheel and deal for a coupla years now and his inability to pull off a deal will not deter him from trying; they've got a big trade waiting for them, could/should change everything about their season.

Pacers (38). Overachieved last year, they get Paul George back and I like the addition of Monta Ellis but losing West and Hibbert makes for a real challenge for them to remake themselves. I like PG and Monta and Coach Vogel but I'm not seeing enough else on that team to think they'll be in the playoff hunt.

Hornets (36). Like the Celtics, they have an interesting collection of players and an under appreciated coach. But can Big Al carry this team? That's a tall order in a conference where others teams are ready to make a big jump. Kemba is nice but I don't think he's enough of a scorer to carry a team, the bench has improved but I don't see enough offense to make a difference. Better than last year but not good enough to be better than 9th place.

Knicks (32). They can't possibly be as bad as last year but even if they're way waaaaay better won't be good enough. I can see Melo being in MVP contention...til everyone realizes even at his best he doesn't WIN games. I wouldn't say I love any of their off-season moves but in terms of risk/reward, I thought they had a pretty good summer: Lopez and O'quinn should make a nice combo down low, Williams and Seraphin are nice low risk pick ups, keep an eye on Jerian Grant. I'm not really buying the coexistential-ness of Melo and Prozingas except as Melo's audition for another team. I think the push-pull between them will keep the team discombobulated. They'll be vastly better but they'll still be watching the playoffs on TV. (I'm really starting to buy into the Melo trade rumors, let the speculation begin on who his next team will be!)

Magic (32). Like the Bucks, I love all the young talent and they'll be a regular on my League Pass this year. I like bringing Coach Skiles to whip the squad into shape, they'll be fun to watch and they'll be in a lot more 4th quarters than they were last year. But I still don't see them winning too many more games this year. But they're growing in the right direction, one more lottery pick (and one or two savvy trades) and they'll be a legit contender in the East in the next year or two.

Pistons (32). Hmmm, Stan Van is a smart man but I'm not seeing the method to the madness in Detroit. I can see Drummond having a breakout season but he'll be more Deandre Jordan than Anthony Davis. I don't see how Jennings (coming off a vicious injury) and Reggie Jax co-exist, I'm not a believer in Caldwell-Pope, the supporting cast (Ilyasova, Marcus Morris, Meeks) is nice but nothing superlative. Stanley Johnson is a sneaky ROY pick, if he's a bust-out baller maybe the Pistons sniff the playoffs but relying on a rookie is an odd place for Stan Van to find himself. I want to like the Pistons, I want to like Stan Van's big picture plan....but I don't.

Nets (24). Everything about this team is just gonna be kinda sorry. This team was built to dominate and they have not dominated anything at all. The roster has a lot of nice players, the real motivation this year is for everyone to play well enough to become trade bait. Are Hollis-Jefferson, Brown and McCullough gonna be keepers? We'll see.

Sixers (22). I think Okafor and Nerlens are gonna make a great combo but the rest of the roster is still a hodge podge of hard working mediocre players. To my mind, this season is probably gonna be all about what they can get for Joel Embiid (I can already tell that pointless trade ideas for Embiid is gonna be a regular feature this year on the blog).