Saturday, May 20, 2017

NBA Playoff Predictions (East)

Cavs over Celtics in 5 
This Cavs team is better than than what they've had the last few years. Deron Williams, Kyle Korver and Channing Frye are giving them reliable bench minutes, Lebron and Kyrie can rest and the team can still score points, a luxury Lebron hasn't had in a while. I thought the Cavs would be tested by the Raptors by, no, not a bit of it. They didn't just sweep the Raptors, they destroyed the Raptors four straight times. All four games over by halftime, all four were cringeworthy, all four made you feel kinda sorry for how hard the Raptors worked this season. *sigh* Oh well, thought the Cavs might get some competition from the North for a little while but now that just seems like a shadow of a dream of a chance. (....And the Cavs still got no shot against the Warriors...dang....)

I'm running late on the predictions, I would've taken the Cavs in 5 over the Celtics with the Celtics most likely to steal Game One...then get pounded in the next four games. The Celtics are a wacky team with a great coach but the Cavs are rolling and Lebron don't like to mess around in the playoffs. How could the Celtics possibly take a game now?

The weird thing: I would've given the Wizards a shot at looking competitive against the Cavs. Don't get me wrong, I would've take then Cavs in four but I think the Wizards would play four reasonably close games. The Pacers were a disappointment, the Hawks are going in the wrong direction, the Heat are fun to watch but they're not a complete team, the Wizards have a nice core but no depth at all, and the Celtics are a herky jerky trickster machine who still need more talent to earn some real juice. Honestly over the next few years I'd say the Bucks and Sixers are probably the best positioned to make a run at Lebron (a Freak and a Process).  

Monday, May 15, 2017

NBA Playoff Predictions (West)

Warriors over Spurs in 5

I was more impressed with the Spurs than I thought I would be at this point. Obviously they're the Spurs, they got the best coach, they're cohesive like a German soccer team, they got veteran savvy and just enough young dumb punks to keep things lively. Of course, they're great, they're always great. But they don't always win and when KD moved to the Bay Area, that was pretty much it for a while. Even for the Spurs. The West has been won, y'all, everyone else can just take the next coupla years off. And while this Spurs team was good, and while Kawhi is the most underappreciated super badass since...well, Tim Duncan...and while they do have the best coach, I didn't see the Spurs outscoring the Rockets four times in seven games (it only took six). I thought the Rockets would be able to hoist up enough shots to keep the Spurs on the defensive most of the time. That's kinda what Game One looked liked; but looking back, it kinda feels like the Spurs were inviting the Rockets' best punch knowing they could beat it. Even without Kawhi in Game Six, Spurs exploited every mistake the Rockets made (knowing that once the Rockets start making mistakes, they don't tend to stop). And they countered in a most un-Popovich fashion: by rolling the ball out to Lamarcus and letting him play his old school game that we haven't seen much of since he left Portland. Came in handy in Game Six. After Game One, the Rockets didn't really challenge much, not that the games were blowouts but I never felt like they were gonna win, Its always foolish to bet against the Spurs but I'm about to do it again. Against the Warriors, though, the Spurs won't control very much.

The Warriors haven't had to play a team that can punch back the way the Spurs (and Cavs) can. It seemed pretty obvious they were gonna slash right through the Blazers and whoever came out of Clippers/Jazz; I thought they'd play the Rockets in the Conference Final and out-Rocket the Rockets for four straight games. The thing about the Warriors is they still have room to get better. A lot better. And they're already a lot better than everyone else (including the Spurs and Cavs). And true to form, the Blazers and Jazz presented no challenge to the Warriors. The Spurs (and Cavs) will make the Warriors work more than they have so far. But I'm still taking the Warriors in 5. I think they'll win a game on the road (I'm thinking Game Four) and wrap it up back home. As we saw last year: the Warriors can be beaten but it requires a Spanish Armada-esque series of misfortunes to even make it possible. The one knock on this team was that the supporting cast took a hit over the years but I'm not seeing it: Pachulia, Livingston, David West, McGee, and oh yeah, Andre Iguodala make for a pretty good collection of helpers. They've got so much depth up top that they could lose an MVP to injury and still being expected to win it all. This team is a full fledged juggernaut and I expect they will be for at least another five years.

The Warriors offense is rolling, everyone is playing well and contributing, I think the defense hasn't even had to play yet, I think they're gonna be fine. I'll give the Spurs a courtesy game but I think this series--as tantalizing and entertaining as it seems tobe--won't last long.

(* I write this after the end of Game One but I haven't watched the game yet, not sure who wins. I'm betting on the Warriors but *shush* don't spoil it!)

Sunday, April 30, 2017

NBA Playoffs (2nd round)

Minimal on the commentary, just the look ahead.

Cavs over Raptors in 7. (I wouldn't be super shocked to see the Raptors knock off the Cavs...except that, yeah, I would)

Wizards over Celtics in 6 (I think the Wizards have more good games then the Celtics, not that they're a wildly better team, I just think their style will yield more consistent offense in a playoff atmosphere.

Warriors over (Clippers) in 5. (Yeah, it doesn't even matter who the Warriors play)

Rockets over Spurs in 6. (Most efficient player beats most efficient team)

NBA PLayoffs (1st round)

Playoff's progress.

I said Celtics over Bulls in 4. Bulls shocked the world by winning the first two in Boston and surprised no one by losing the next two back in Chicago. Celtics in 6 was easy to see after you realized the DWade-Rondo Bulls Renaissance lasted exactly two games. Since I can't stand watching the Bulls I forgot how damn good Jimmy Butler (he's damn good) and the Celtics really had nothing to stop the mighty Robin Lopez but it never felt like Wade, Canaan, MCW, Mirotic, Portis, etc, were ever gonna bring enough offense to counter the Celtics whipping the ball around. The Celtics still have problems but that's not why they dropped those first two to the Bulls.

I said Cavs over Pacers in 4 because Lebron likes to hit the ground running in the playoffs and the Pacers looked done, man, like done being in the same Arena with each other kinda done. It would've taken a super human effort from Paul George and a comet hitting the city of Cleveland for the Pacers to have a random shot of winning even a game in this series. Yup, Cavs sweep was a pretty easy call.

I had Raptors over Bucks in 7, Though the Bucks gave the Raptors an early punch in the face in Game One, the Series kinda went where I thought it would go: the Raptors are the better team but sometimes it takes them a while to remember that. The Bucks are young, dumb, total wild card, they had the element of surprise, but the Raptors are a deep veteran team where everybody knows the role. The Bucks are the coolest sloppy young team this side of Denver. Raptors in 6 (where they really tried to give the game back at the end!) was a slight over achievement to my mind.

I had Wizards over Hawks in 7. I thought the home team would win every game in this series, thought the two teams were close with the Wizards being enough more explosive on offense that they'd take Game Seven. The games didn't go quite the way I thought they would but it was by no means a blowout.Similar to the Raptors, I thought the Wizards over achieved by taking the decisive game early and on the road. Good for Wall and co., they've had playoff success in the past but no one gives them any credit for it.


I had the Warriors in 5, thinking the Blazers would have one lights-out night and the Warriors would rollover for a night up in Portland (probably Game Three). Ehh, didn't happen. Turns out the Blazers playing their best game all year long wouldn't cover the spread against the Warriors even on an off-night. Warriors are getting their groove on, think they're gonna roll over everyone they face.

I had the Spurs in 4 but I also kinda thought it could go 7. My first thought was the Spurs are better than the team that swept the Grizzlies last year, so why wouldn't they breeze through Memphis again?Then again, the Grizzlies had Jordan Farmar (*) starting for them in the playoffs last year.  The Grizz still kinda got grit and grind but isn't the Grit and Grind era spookily similar to CP/Blake/Deandre in LA? I like the new coach with the old players but they were never enough back in the day and they're getting even less enough every year that goes by. The Spurs are the better team and it wouldn't have surprised me if they won in 4, but it wouldn't have surprised me if the Grizz dialed it up and pushed them to Game Seven. Spurs taking Game Six on the road is kind of baller.

I had Rockets over Thunder in 6, they won in 5. OKC had chances of slowing down the Rockets but only enough for a game or two. I thought it'd be 2, it was only 1. I really believe in the Rockets this year, especially in the playoffs, I think they have a chance to get even better in the post-season. And the Thunder were nice but they never consistently did anything, so it isn't that Russell clogs the offense or that the supporting cast isn't any good, it's just that they don't do anything in a dominant fashion so they have to work so hard for everything. Rockets don't have to work that hard, they're gonna score way exerting less effort. I love Westbrook and I'd love for the Thunder to move on but I don't see this team going deep in the playoffs any time soon. Rockets finishing it in 5 was pretty smart for them, an impressive 1st round.

I had Clippers over Jazz in 7 only because the Clippers would be the home team in Game Seven. I went with 7 because I thought the home team would win each game but the Jazz are 2-1 in LA and 1-2 at home, which is kinda surprising and not surprising at all. The Clippers are without Blake (whose absence inspired the Clippers in Game Three but caught up to them in Game Five), but they tend to play better without Blake (my heart goes out to the next Clipper equipment manager who accidentally makes that realization out loud) so I'm inclined to stick to 7 games. Incidentally, I think CP3 and Deandre are juiced in, I can see Doc and Austin hanging around (although I can see them both splitting too), 50/50 on Crawford, but I think Blake, Reddick and everyone else is out of there. (Make room for Melo) Meanwhile, the Jazz are a GM's dream: drafted Hayward, Burks, Gobert Exum, Lyles, got Favors in a blockbuster, craftily added Hill, Ingles, Joe Johnson, Diaw, Mack. Perfect mix of youth and vet, a really well-structured, well-crafted squad. I took the home team in Seven at the beginning, I might as well stick with that now.

* (Jordan Farmar!)

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

NBA Predictions

(On Saturday, April 15 I meant to put up a blog post about my NBA playoff predictions at the time but I did not because...I been busy, man. I'll omit commentary which by this point would just be dated rather than useful and just record naked predictions. I submit this for posterity to give continuity to future blog posts. Thank you)

1st round
Celtics over Bulls in 4
Cavs over Pacers in 4
Raptors over Bucks in 7
Wizards over Hawks in 7

Warriors over Blazers in 5
Spurs over Grizzlies in 4 (had a lot of scenarios for that matchup)
Rockets over Thunder in 6
Clippers over Jazz in 7

2nd round
Wizards over Celtics in 6
Cavs over Raptors in 7

Warriors over Clippers in 4
Rockets over Spurs in 6

Conference Finals
Cavs over Wizards in 7
Warriors over Rockets in 5

Finals
Warriors over Cavs in 4 (by the time we get to the end, the Warriors will be grooving, Cavs will be rickety struggling, Warriors will turn the lights out quick on Kyrie and Lebron)

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

NBA Playoff Predictions (Round One)

Yeah, I'm about 4 days too late for this post but I wrote (most of) it on Saturday, so I'm totally legit.  I swear. What has changed in the last few days?

Celtics over Bulls
I think the Bulls are terrible. The Celtics are hard working, fun, yet utterly unlikely to win the East. The Celtics have matchup problems that will doom them eventually. But for now I think the Bulls are a team they match up well with. Celtics in 5. (Okay, after two games in that series, I am looking decidedly wrong. For years the Bulls were an interesting collection of talent that I always thought would pull through and never really did; I was fine with ditching Joakim and D Rose and Pau and even Taj but replacing them with D Wade, Rondo and nobody was not a step in the right direction. But suddenly they look like the mismatched collection of vets and rooks that could be really dangerous. And the Celtics look like a team lacking that one big star (that everyone knows they lack), look like a collection of interesting players that work hard because they're not as talented. Well, in the post-season talent wins out. Am I giving up on the Celtics? Aw, hell, no. I still think this Bulls team stinks and if you think of this as a battle between Stevens and Hoiberg...ehh, you ready to throw in with Bulls? I'm not. Obviously the Celtics won't win in 4 (my Saturday prediction), I still think they're the better team, I still think the Bulls are the lesser team and the Celtics will figure it out.

Cavs over Pacers
Lebron don't miss around in the early rounds. Check it: he rarely gives up more than 1 game. I think the Pacers a mess (my big disappointment team of the year) and couldn't punch their way out of Peyton Manning's spine. Cavs in 4 (Yup, I'll stick with that)

Raptors over Bucks
Yes, I was a little surprised by Game 1. Not super surprised, the Raptors do start slow in the post-season. But they are the better team and I assume that over the course of seven games, they'll figure it out. But the Bucks have nothing to lose and the funnest team around. Not super shocked that the Bucks won Game 1 but the decisive fashion with which they dispatched the Raptors was eye-opening. (Aside: Obviously my great regret of not watching as much basketball this year was missing out on a classic Antetokounpo maturation season) I still think the Raptors are the better team, the more complete team, the more mature team and will get it together by Game 7.

Wizards over Hawks
These Hawks just aren't the same Hawks. No Korver, no Teague, no Horford, just DWight and Dennis Shroeder? No, I ain't feeling that and I was never the Coach Bud fan that most others are. The Wizards are a haphazard kinda team, I feel like they're better (they just won't always play better), and ultimately they'll get it done. Wizards in 7


Warriors over Blazers
I'll give the Blazers Game 3 back in Portland but that's it. The Warriors are ready to roll and the Blazers are the first to get rolled. Warriors in 5.

Spurs over Grizzlies
This series two games in gives me pause from my original prediction. I thought the Spurs would run through the Grizz in 4 just like they did last year. But the Grizz are waaaaaaaay better this time around so how could I expect the grit and grind just to give in so quick? Yes, the Spurs are up 2-0 but I still think it'll be harder than they're expecting. I would've taken the Spurs in 4, now I'll say 6.

Rockets over Thunder
Fun series, Harden and Westbrook are gonna be great. I just think the Harden team is rounder, fuller, more together than the Westbrook team. I like OKC, I was impressed with the season they had, the season Westbrook had, but I still think the Rockets are the better team. Rockets in 6 (yeah, the Rockets win it in OKC).

Clippers over Jazz
The coinflippiest series of the 1st round. I'm going with the home team in Game 7, if the Jazz had the home court I would've chosen them, but the Clipps got it so I'm going with them. I like the Jazz, I like how they're growing together, thought they jumped the gun with bringing in vets but by the post-season the vets are just seasoning rather than running the show. The Clippers are the same kind of good they've always been and the same kind of bad. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Jazz dusted the Clippers off but I was a little surprised to see the Jazz take Game 1. Yeah, I had it going seven but I had the home team going 7-0. I went Clippers in 7, could just as easily be Jazz in 7 (or 6).

Sunday, March 26, 2017

USA Soccer

Did you see that 6-0 scoreline against Honduras the other day? That was all I needed to confirm that USA has plenty of good players and Coach Klinsmann was holding us back. Yeah, that's a bit bold, still a long way to go in the hex, still only a pipe dream to win a World Cup in my lifetime, but USA has a steadily growing talent pool that Klinsmann never knew what to do with. I fully expect USA to qualify and get out of group come 2018. And I'm sure Arena will drive our boys full throttle until we're in. We're going in the right direction again, finally.