AFC
4-0
Bills
Well, the Bills defense is suspect--even more than the last few seasons--but so far it feels like QB Josh Allen is ready to outscore all comers. So far, the Bills are the best team in the league but there's a lot of season left. The Bills were my pre-season pick to win it all and for now I've got no reason to change course.
3-1
Chargers, Colts, Jags, Steelers
The Chargers are probably gonna charge but so far they look tougher and sharper than the squad that's been fumbling away 4th quarters for more than a decade. QB Herbert looks like the crafty veteran the nerds have been accusing him of being since he arrived in the league and the defense just looks better this year, more complete. I dunno, for now they look like Buffalo's real competition.
The Colts are getting the Danny Dimes-a-ssance and suddenly it appears like their inability to find a competent QB has masked that the rest of the roster isn't bad. A QB that isn't a disaster is maybe all they needed (especially in their so-so division). I am slow to give up on QB's and, man, Danny Dimes has had moments in this league, and so far he seems to be exactly what the Colts have needed for a while now. Will they still be around at the end of the year? I can see it, actually.
I'll say it: I like the Jags. Their one L so far was to the Bengals and, man, the Jags worked really hard to lose that game. The blame that QB Lawrence has been getting is unwarranted (I think the receivers deserve the share of the blame) and that defense is legit good all over the field. I think the Jags are actually good and though they will surely have their stumbles throughout the season (because they're not used to winning), I expect them to be in the hunt for their division or a wild card spot.
The Steelers are the up/down team: they'll have weeks where they look damn good on both sides of the ball and then weeks where they just flat out suck. Rodgers has moments of mojo and moments of over the hill and their defense is pretty similar. Can that mediocrity get them into the post-season? Maybe, but I suspect they won't last long if they get there.
2-2
Chiefs, Broncos, Patriots, Bengals
Clearly it's too early to give up on Mahomes but the Chiefs really do look like they're falling back to the pack--especially with the Chargers and Broncos stepping up. Don't count them out but they sure don't look like the world beaters they've been for as long as anyone can remember.
The Broncos are....okay. I think they're pretty good on both sides of the ball, good enough to beat bad teams but not necessarily good enough to hang with the real good ones. They'll be in the playoff hunt but I suspect they come up short.
The Patriots are moving in the right direction but their next match--Monday night in Buffalo--will show us if they're really ready to compete. I can see the Pats being up and down all season long, good enough to be in the playoff hunt...maybe. But this is probably more of a building-for-next-year kinda team.
I wasn't in on the Bengals this season and if they have to go 6-ish weeks without QB Joe Burrow, I don't see how they hang. They got lucky against the Browns and the Jags, they should probably be winless.
1-3
Ravens, Texans, Browns, Raiders, Dolphins
The Ravens are the best 1-3 team in the league. Yeah, the defense is not that good, the offense has yet to gel and they're currently racked by injuries. But so far they've lost to the Bills (game of the year so far), Lions and Chiefs, so I'm not worried about them yet.
The Texans haven't gotten going and I'm not sure why. I can't help thinking this season might get away from them before they get hot and snag some W's down the stretch. I still like that D and that QB but I also like the Colts and Jags more than I thought I would, so gonna be tough for the Texans to compete. Feels like this might be an off year for the Texans (keep an eye on them for next season).
The Browns have a hell of a defense but I don't think they'll score any points., so I just can't see them winning too many games.
The Raiders are frisky but they look like such a slopfest of a team that I reckon they'll get a few upset W's, but I can't see them sniffing the post-season.
The Dolphins are not particularly good at anything, moving in the wrong direction. But they still play hard, they'll compete week to week, they'll score a few highlights but I don't think they're gonna win many games.
0-4
Jets, Titans
The Jets are not particularly good at anything. but I doubt that they are as bad as they've been so far. I can see the Jets sucking pretty bad and then piling up some upsets down the stretch.
The Titans are the worst team in the league. I like their rookie QB, but the coach seems like an idiot and there's not a wealth of talent on either side. They're my #1 pick for the #1 pick.
NFC
4-0
Eagles
They just keep chugging along but somehow I'm still not sure if they're any good. I can see them going undefeated or finishing with a losing record, I dunno.
3-1
Lions, Bucs, Seahawks, Rams, Niners
I think the Lions are the cream of the NFC. They weren't ready for opening week at Lambeau but they've been killing it since then and I think they're the team to beat going forward.
The Bucs manage to squeeze out more W's than L's and I can't tell if its because they just find a way to win or if they ought to be way better and are just getting by. They were my pre-season pick for the Super Bowl and, I dunno, I guess they could be. We'll see.
The Seahawks and the Rams and the Niners all seem overacheiving so far. The Seahawks are strangely good on the road (but strangely soft at home), the Niners have a weird roster but seem to get W's, and the Rams have one of my fave QB's but I'm not a huge fan of any of the rest of that roster. Once they start playing each other one of these teams will emerge and one will fade, not sure which is which.
2-2 (2-1-1)
Packers, Vikings, Falcons, Cards, Commanders, Bears
The Packers managed to give away a W against the Browns (eh, that was a fluke) and turned a W into a Tie in Dallas (eh, they should've won by 2 touchdowns). But I still think that along with the Lions, the Packers are a top tier squad, they just need to get their shit together.
I think the Vikings are a mirage, I just can't see them hanging in a tough division with a rookie QB.
I like the Falcons, plenty of weapons of offense and it feels like they're finally starting to figure it out--though getting shut out in Carolina is still a head scratcher. Can they win that division? If they can find the consistency that has eluded the Bucs, I think so.
The Cards are not the fourth best team in their division. Are they the best? Could be. But I don't see a wild card coming out of that division, so they need to win it.
I think the Commanders overachieved last year and it stands to reason that they'll fall toward the middle. In the wild card hunt, I reckon, but I think they come up short.
I am not in on the Bears at all. The defense is pretty good but they still haven't figured out the offense and I think that division is too tough for them to experiment for much longer.
1-3 (1-2-1)
Cowboys, Giants, Panthers
The Cowboys have a good offense and a terrible defense. They'll win some games and should be a fun watch but I can't see them as a playoff squad.
The Giants have finally settled on their rookie QB but Jaxson Dart is a wild man (just slightly this side of Anthony Richardson) and I can't imagine he makes it a full season and though I like him, I doubt he'll make much of a difference this season. They do have a nasty pass rush, though, they'll steal some W's.
The Panthers are terrible. That's all.
0-4
Saints
The Saints are not good but--god love 'em!--this franchise does not believe in tanking--they're out there trying to win the Super Bowl...and not coming close. They play hard, they play with pride, they'll get some W's, doubt they'll get the #1 pick but they won't be far off (Nussmeyer on their wish list, I presume?).
