Wednesday, October 9, 2024

2024-25 NFL Season (Week 4 & 5)

Games I saw (some of): 
Bucs 30-36 (OT) Falcons
The Falcons rely too much of Kirk Cousins--you've got a for-real running game, why are passing 50 times a game with a guy that makes Drew Bledsoe look like Jackie Joyner-Kersey? Neither of these teams show much interest in defense but they can both move the ball. Pre-season, I liked the Falcons to be a nice surprise kinda team and I still believe that, but they need to balance up that offense and tighten up that defense if they expect to take even this bizarro division. The Bucs are okay, they move the ball, they shouldn't be taken lightly and yet I still never expect them to win. 

Ravens 41-38 (OT) Bengals
I got a hot take: the Ravens defense is not particularly any good. This is not the hard-nosed Ravens D that we've seen for decades, this team is soft in the secondary and not that effective against the run. They can get gashed again and again, so good for them that their offense can put points on the board. As for the Bengals, well....likewise. The offense is coming around and their gonna be tough to stop most weeks but their defense doesn't stop anybody and if the offense turns it over or misses a FG, their D is in serious trouble. The Ravens are good enough to challenge in the AFC but I don't think the Bengals are gonna do much this season. 


The rest of the slate: 
Jets 17-23 Vikings. Yeah, that looks about right. The Jets really just haven't shown anything on either side of the ball yet, but their division is pretty awful, so they're not out of it yet.

Panthers 10-36 Bears. The Panthers are terrible. The Bears are at least moving in the right direction. 

Dolphins 15-10 Patriots. These are two worst teams in the NFL. I'd be shocked if they're not both picking top 4 in the 2025 draft. 

Colts 34-37 Jags. You ever notice that even when the Jags win, they still don't look right?

Bills 20-23 Texans. Feels like the Bills let this one slip away late. Good W for the Texans.

Raiders 18-34 Broncos. I kinda like the Broncos. I kinda the Raiders are terrible. 

Cards 24-23 Niners. The Niners are struggling and I don't understand why. The Cards are sneaky but not great. 

Packers 24-19 Rams. The Rams just aren't good enough in the O-line or D-line to matter much this season, it seems. The Packers should be better, but a nice W on the road. 

Giants 29-20 Seahawks. Why is the Seahawks home field advantage never much of an advantage for them? How did the Giants get better after getting rid of any/all good players? It feels like they're trying to tank and the players just keep accidentally winning. 

Cowboys 20-17 Steelers. The Cowboys are sloppy, should be better. The Steelers work hard and get lucky but I'm not sure how good they actually are. 

Saints 13-26 Chiefs. What happened that offensive explosion the Saints unleashed in the first 2 weeks? Nice steady game plan victory for the Chiefs.


Week 4
Games I saw (some of):
Cowboys 20-15 Giants
The Giants aren't a disaster, not quite good enough to beat good teams but not bad. The Cowboys have moments where that offense is in control and then moments where they look totally befuddled, I don't get this team at all.

Steelers 24-27 Colts
I'm still skeptical of the Steelers, the D is pretty good (but not that great) and the offense has moments but mostly sputters. But when QB Joe Flacco puts the cape on, that's good enough to brush the Steelers aside. So....why doesn't Flacco just play all the time for the Colts? Why do they leave the QB that can get wins on the bench for emergencies only?

Bengals 34-24 Panthers
Okay, so Cincy can beat the Panthers. Not overwhelming but they were the better team. That's good to know because I think the Panthers are probably the worst team in the league. 

Chiefs 17-10 Chargers
Another week, another just enough QB Mahomes performance. The Chargers are the Chargers, man: good when they feel like it, brutally awful the rest of the time. I'm still skeptical of the Chiefs, but they are the same team that won 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, so.....

Bills 10-35 Ravens
The Bills were down 21-10 in the 3rd quarter, they were driving nicely, when QB Allen got outside the pocket, couldn't get the pass off, fumbled and lost the ball. The Ravens quickly converted the turnover into a TD and that was that. My point is: the Bills were in this game and if a coupla plays had gone different, they may have even won. But this is purely Josh Allen's team and they will go as far he can drag them. The Ravens are looking good, but I still feel like they're not a complete team. 

Seahawks 29-42 Lions
Jared Goff threw a perfect game--no incomplete passes all night. The Lions offense is looking good right now. The Seahawks are....I dunno what they are. 


The rest of the slate:
Saints 24-26 Falcons. Division game, home team wins, sounds right to me. 

Rams 18-24 Bears. The Rams are gonna lose like this week no matter who the play, right? The Bears offense is heating up. 

Vikings 31-29 Packers. Vikings built big lead, almost gave it away. If the Packers figure it out, they can still be pretty good. 

Broncos 10-9 Jets. Yipes! Are the Jets ever gonna get going? The Bronco is real. 

Eagles 16-33 Bucs. What is up with the Eagles? Do they hate their coach? The Bucs are a trick or treat team but their good weeks look pretty good. 

Jags 20-24 Texans. Division game, home team prevails, looks right to me. 

Commanders 42-14 Cards. The Commanders offensive renaissance looks to be for real. The Cards are up and down.

Pats 13-30 Niners. The Pats are working their way to a top 5 pick. The Niners still aren't there yet but a nice biscuit from the Pats is nice. 

Browns 16-20 Raiders. The Browns are stuck with QB Watson and until they get out from under his brutal contract, this team is going nowhere. The Raiders are not good, but they handled the Browns. 

Titans 31-12 Dolphins. The Titans aren't good but the Dolphins are aiming for a top 5 pick.

Monday, October 7, 2024

2024-25 NCAA (Week 6)

Games I watched (some of): 
None. All baseball all weekend...no regrets.

Top 25
Handled their business
(3) Ohio State, (5) Georgia, (6) Oregon, (7) Penn State, (12) Mississippi, (15) Clemson, (16) Iowa State, (21) Boise State, (23) Indiana, (25) Texas A&M

Won but did not impress
(8) Miami. I dunno, I didn't think they'd cover against Cal, but to have to scramble late to steal the victory is not as impressive as it should be. If Miami is truly a top 10 squad they should be able to go on the road in conference (conference? Miami and Berkeley....in the same....conference? Oh right: conferences don't mean anything any more), and get a decisive victory against a team that isn't nearly as good. That said, everyone else in college football lost this weekend, so I presume Miami will be top 6, no?

Bad beat
(9) Missouri. The fact that this is a "bad beat" rather than "not so good" is adding insult to injury: this team was never a top 10 squad and the fact they got de-stroyed at A&M is all you need to know. Missouri is a middle of the pack SEC squad, not top tier.

Not so good (oof! This category is packed this week!)
(1) Alabama. Well well well....well well well...let's just say I'm glad I'm not an emergency room intern in Tuscaloosa because the amount of trauma this weekend would've surely been overwhelming. Look, man, losing at Vandy is enough of a blow, but, dude, Bama was NEVER in this game! They got STOMPED by Vandy! Still top 12 but, man, an L to Vandy is gonna be hard to wipe off.
For those of you that don't get college sports, there are dudes on the Vandy side that will never have to buy their own drinks again in Nashville...like, for life. 

(4) Tennessee. Well, I was all in on UT but they did not look good at any point in this Arkansas game. Not the end of the world to lose on the road in conference but I thought they were better than that (perhaps "parity" is coming to college ball). Still in my top 12 and there's a lot of season left. 
(10) Michigan. Yeah, I was never in on the Wolverines this season, they've got a lot to live up to and a lot of turnover. Not a bad team, but not a top 12 side. 
(11) Southern Cal. Not sure they deserve to get completely bounced from the top 25 (especially in a week when so many ranked schools went down), but flailing in Minnesota does not win over hardened hearts. That said, I still think I like this team and I think they'll be back. 
(22) Louisville. Meh. The Cards are a nice team but not particularly top 25-ish, so I wouldn't be surprised to not see them back for the rest of the season. 
(25) UNLV. Hardly knew ye, Rebels, but when you get handled at home by Syracuse, it suggests to me that you don't belong in the top 25. 

Next week's intriguing matches:
(1) Texas v (18) Oklahoma (@ Dallas) (this isn't a vintage OU squad but sticking it to UT might change that)
(4) Penn State @ Southern Cal (after SC lost at Minnesota this feels like an afterthought, but this is where Southern Cal claws back their season or the Nittany Lions cement their top 5 status)
Arizona @ (14) Brigham Young (BYU has overperformed so far, Arizona has underperformed, is this the week it flips?)
(2) Ohio State @ (3) Oregon (here we go, best non-SEC game of the year?)
(9) Mississippi @ (13) Louisiana State (loser leaves town match in the SEC)
(11) Iowa State @ West Virginia (WVU ain't bad, if the Cyclones fancy themselves a playoff team, they'll need to get a good W here)
(18) Kansas State @ Colorado (the Buffaloes are a mystery to me but everyone'll be watching this one, so the Wildcats need a positive performance)

I tried to do a top 12 last week and I only came up with 8 teams--and 2 of them lost this week! So I'm gonna wait another week before I start forecasting my top 12.