2024 US Open

Women's

(13) Navarro 3/6 - 6/7 (2) Sabalenka

Sabalenka wasn't wildly better than Navarro on this night, but she was better enough. Sabalenka went up a break in the 1st and rode it to win the set. Then she went up a break in the 2nd, faltered when serving for the match (which bummed me out because I was hoping to skip off to catch the Ravens-Chiefs kickoff) and for a minute it felt like she was going to let the whole thing get away from her. But she pulled it together, got the match to a tie break and then breezed to victory (which she could've just as easily done 20 minutes earlier). As for Navarro, this was her first major semifinal and while she's a nice player, I'm not sure I really saw anything to make me think she's going to be a semifinal regular or anything. Always liked Sabalenka, on her best day she's a tough out, but she's (I'll say it) Russian and therefore an unpredictable head case and on her bad days can flame out Hindenburg-style. (The final has a real Rocky IV vibe to it, huh?)

(6) Pegula 1/6/6 - 6/4/2 Muchova

Dang, the first set was over so quick, I barely saw it. Seemed like Muchova was in the driver's seat, then all of a sudden she wasn't. Not really sure what happened, Pegula found her game and stuck to it and Muchova just couldn't hang. Nice run for Muchova but she wasn't built to win this tourney, though I was impressed how easily she dispatched Paolini in the Round of 16. 

(6) Pegula 5/5 - 7/7 (2) Sabalenka

Sabalenka is the better player, bigger game, better talent but....she's dying to blow it. So the opportunity for Pegula was to just stay on track and take advantage of Sabalenka's breakdown. Well, didn't happen in the 1st set, Sabalenka went up a break, then gave it back, but turned it on late and won the set. In the 2nd, Pegula got up a break early but Sabalenka unpredictably cranked it up, got her break back and rode the momentum to take the title (which suggests that Sabalenka keeps it together better when she's coming from behind?). Pegula is a nice player but I don't see the little extras to put her over the top--but she did take out Swiatek rather easily, which is maybe the most impressive match of the whole tourney. so.... Sabalenka is one of the best in the world right now, but again, she is a moody player and totally capable of giving it away. But she didn't here, she stayed strong, made the most of her opportunities, overcame her mistakes and looked pretty damn good doing this. Curious to see if she rides this momentum into next season. 

Men's

(1) Sinner 7/7/6 - 5/6/2 (25) Draper

Didn't get to see this, as my computer glitched while I was trying to catch the replay and I ended up catching the very end instead. Oh well, just two of the best, most exciting players in the world, I'm sure it was no big deal. 

(12) Fritz 4/7/4/6/6 - 6/5/6/4/1 (20) Tiafoe

I like Tiafoe, hell of an athlete, but I'm not sure he's good at tennis. He makes up in power what he lacks in mobility---almost! And that's what I mean: he doesn't have the ability to recover that the tippy top players have. He's got amazing strength and has the impressive ability to pick his spots (shows a real intuitive knowledge of the game) as well as anyone I've seen in ages, but I just don't think he's got that last little skill that the greats have. If we were to put in him the top tier right now, I'd put him at the very bottom: good enough to tromp over the lower tiers, but probably not good enough to get past the giants. As for Fritz, I like his game and while he doesn't have Tiafoe's strength or showmanship, I do think he possesses the intangibles to firmly ensconce him in the upper tier. This match was glorious back and forth action for the first 4 sets, felt like the 5th was gonna be an all timer. But, then, outta nowhere, Tiafoe just...I dunno what happened to him, he just couldn't finish any more and he totally lost his serve (his one game was a break, where Fritz tripped over himself serving for the match). I don't know what happened and while I think the overall outcome was pretty much correct, a 5th set tiebreak may well have bounced in the other direction. I like Tiafoe, fun to watch, a tough out, but I think he's a quarterfinals kinda guy (we'll see). Fritz has his shot at the championship, Sinner ain't be easy.

(1) Sinner 6/6/7 - 3/4/5 (12) Fritz

Yeah, that's about right. Sinner is the best in the world right now (I suppose Alcaraz would disagree, but I stand by it) and Fritz is a nice up-and-comer, but he ain't exactly ready to win a Major just yet. Sinner took control early and breezed through the first two sets. Fritz was up a break in the 3rd and just couldn't hold it together, Sinner surged back and reminded everyone why he is the #1 seed right now. I like Fritz, I think he has room to get better and I think he'll be around for the next few years. But Sinner is full-on ready to put Djokovic out to pasture and for the foreseeable future it is up to Alcaraz to dual the top dog, with Fritz and the rest waiting for the crumbs.