Durant has 1 yr/$20.1m left on his contract. If OKC wins a title, can he walk away? If OKC doesn't get out of the West, can he stay? Billy Donovan's mandate is clear: figure out how to keep Durant. If winning a title is what it takes, then go win a title (if not, then just play hard and get his signature on this piece of paper). The next priority is re-signing Westbrook (2 yrs/$34m) and then Ibaka (2 yrs/$24.6). Keep those guys and the Thunder will be relevant (not dominant...relevant) in the West for the foreseeable future. That is a coaching job worth having. But if you can't keep Durant, then Westbrook starts looking around, Ibaka gets jumpy and suddenly that Thunder bench becomes the source material of a Steinbeck novel. Its worth remembering that Oklahoma inherited a championship contender with great stars, that's not the norm in the NBA. If Donovan doesn't pull it off, OKC may never have a winning team again. Harsh, but it really is that dire. Keep these guys or perish.
Can the Thunder win the title next year? Hey man, if Durant and Westbrook are both healthy, they can win a Superbowl, a Pulitzer Prize and like 3 or 4 daytime Emmys. Not money in the bank, the West is tough and Kyrie-Lebron (and Love?) await after that, but Durant and Westbrook together can win many many games throughout the year and on into the playoffs (though they haven't done it since Harden left...), you definitely have to put the Thunder on the short list of teams that can win it all in 2015-16.
The Thunder roster next year is pretty well set with a few predictable moves: I think they want to keep Kanter, which I think seals the fate of Dion Waiters and Kyle Singler and probably necessitates moving Novak, Morrow, Lamb and/or Roberson. They have the #14 pick in the draft so they'll be adding a fresh young body but probably no high profile free agents coming to town. How does all that work?
Durant, Westbrook, Kanter, Ibaka becomes the core (perfect for any number of 5th options). Adams and Collison will get steady big guy minutes. I think they'll try to get regular rotation minutes out of McGary in a tandem with Perry Jones in small ball swing-type lineups. DJ Augustin just had a fine veteran season and they'll look to get (occasionally heavy) injury time minutes at PG. That's the 9-man rotation with room to add more.
I don't think they re-sign Kyle Singler; that position is already over-covered on the Thunder roster (and doesn't Singler fit perfect in Cleveland?). Dion Waiters has a team option going into 1yr/$5.5m; in order to make room for Kanter, I expect the Thunder to decline that option and for Waiters to hit the market. Not a comment on his game but his contract. (I think his game is terrible)
Novak, Lamb, Morrow and Roberson are similar enough players that a coupla them should probably be moved; I think I'd keep Morrow and try to flip the other 3 for another veteran PG. Roberson has another team option year after next but Novak and Lamb are each expiring contracts; might the Sixers be interested in parting with a 2nd round pick (they have 5 this year) for Roberson's rookie deal and Novak's expiring (whom they could then cut)?
The #14 pick will be in the range of a player like PG Jerian Grant (Notre Dame) or PF Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin) but I wonder if SEC-tested Donovan sees F Bobby Portis (Arkansas) as a nice protege to Durant (he's not Durant but he at least has a similar kinda game). (If PF Willie Cauley-Stein falls to #14, I assure you Billy Donovan will eagerly, greedily scoop him up) The Thunder also have the #48 pick which could be used to stash a Euro player for the future or could net them one of Kentucky's Harrison twins (unfairly maligned IMHO: they're big, they can shoot, they can handle, they're fearless, they've had ups and downs, I think they're gonna be good pros and brilliant 2nd round bargains) or perhaps both if they can jettison a body or two for a 2nd round pick.
I suspect their roster is pretty well set. I don't foresee any big name free agents moving to OKC because the money just isn't there right now. I think they could use more backup PG and everyone always needs a backup PF/C but outside of re-signing Kanter, I don't expect any big moves. They've got some players they can package but they're really looking to jettison rather than bring back; if they could swap for 2nd rounders they'd probably live with that.
Okay, the lottery ticket kicks into effect right now. Not sure if its a golden ticket but one year from now we should have a pretty good idea of whether Donovan gets to keep the chocolate factory or if he goes out Veruca Salt-style.
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