Thursday, April 23, 2015

Defensive Player of the Year

Your 2014-15 NBA (insert sponsor)'s Defensive Player of the Year is Kawhi Leonard.  Draymond Green was a close 2nd place, Deandre Jordan a distant 3rd.  The others receiving 1st place votes: Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Tony Allen, Tim Duncan.  I gotta say I don't agree.

Before looking over the players that got votes, think of some of the guys that received zero votes this year: Tyson Chandler, Klay Thompson, Giannis Antetokounpo, Dwight Howard, Omer Asik, John Henson, Kenneth Faried, Serge Ibaka, Jae Crowder, Michael Carter-Williams, Zach Randolph, Taj Gibson, Marcus Smart, KJ McDaniels being the first ones off the top of my head.  Some good defensive players in there that got no love whatsoever.

I watch a lot of basketball and I like digging into the numbers but I can't say I am any great judge of what makes a good defender. I'm pretty good about seeing the flow of team defense and play away from the action but, like most sports fans, I watch the ball too much for my own good.  Defensive statistics are a fairly new thing in basketball (baseball too) and so far they are minimal and vague; I'll just assume the algorithm that makes up the defensive ratings makes sense and is actually a worthwhile indicator (50/50 it isn't worthwhile and we're wasting our time looking a broken clock, just throwing that out there for those that presume numbers are necessarily meaningful).  But I can't make a reasonable case for any of those guys I named that received no votes (though my gut tells me they're all badasses).

The others that received votes: Andrew Bogut, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jimmy Butler, Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah, Trevor Ariza, Lebron James, Patrick Beverley, Demarre Carrol, Chris Paul, Hassan Whiteside.  Another fine collection of players, I can't complain with the voting in general.

But of the top 7, look at where the rank in terms of Minutes Played: Jordan (7th), Green (31st), Davis (34th), Duncan (72nd), Gobert (79th), Leonard (102nd), Allen (166th).

I'm a believer in usage, guys contribute when they play, not when they don't (except for Dion Waiters, ha!).  To be a truly important, decisive, award-worthy player you've got to be in the top 60 in terms of usage.  Why 60?  30 teams, 2 players from each team would make a top 60 roughly.  You've gotta be one of the top two guys on your own team to really be considered a high level 'useful' player league-wide.  I don't mean to suggest that Duncan, Gobert, Kawhi or Allen are unworthy players, only that they shouldn't really qualify for consideration for all-season honors.  You've got to play to get consideration.  (Top 60 is just a guidepost, let's be generous and say top 100)

The narrative on Kawhi is that his return to the lineup was a catalyst for the Spurs season; okay, fine.  But his offense is just as important (probably more so) than his defense, so this narrative should be most effectively made toward the MVP award rather than the DPOY.  Is anyone going to give Kawhi a 1st place for MVP?  No, he didn't play enough games.  If he's not an MVP candidate why is he a DPOY candidate?  He's a great player, a decisive player, the best player on the team, but I can't say he gave the largest, most indelible contribution to his own team, so how can he be the best (anything) in the entire league?  He's a great defender but he didn't produce enough this season to earn this honor.  He's not even in the top 100 in Minutes Played, man, there are a lot of guys out there that have a better claim to this award and I think the writers (or whoever) have done Kawhi a disservice because Kawhi will get opportunities to win this award in the future because he's a great player with a great coach.  But this year he didn't deserve it.

My pre-season pick was Jordan and I'm impressed that he acquitted himself well on the court this year.  He was there night after night for a team that relied primarily on his defense.  (How can you put Kawhi ahead of that?)

Green was perhaps the Most Improved player in the league this year.  And his contribution to the team fit a specific need that kept the team rolling.  Green is a good offensive player but really it was his defense that kept the Warriors in place.  (Green played 15 more games and 300 more minutes than Kawhi and his team won 12 more games than the Spurs, how does someone vote for Kawhi instead?)

I'd take Green overall and Jordan 2nd.  Seems to me these guys are easily the two best choices, 3rd place is a distant drop though I'd say Davis, Paul, and Gobert would round out my top five.

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