Ahhhhh, League Pass, so good to have you back. I'm slack-ass on the Coach, MVP, DPOY and ROY picks, still mulling them over. First I wanted to jot down some thoughts on the first coupla nights of action.
I watched the Pistons beat the Hawks in Atlanta. It made me even warier of the Hawks: last year Millsap and Carroll were in contract years and Korver was smarting from getting left off the World Cup roster (I thought he should've made it), they snuck up on people and got deliriously hot in Jan-Feb. This year Horford's in a contract year but....none of that other stuff. Millsap got paid, Carroll got paid to go somewhere else, Korver can't possibly be that awesome again (can he?), they gave up on Adrian Payne, they got rid of the overly maligned Executive of the Year Danny Ferry and all they added was Tim Hardaway Jr. The Hawks will still be one of the better teams in the East but I'm not seeing a top 4 finish for them. As for the Pistons, they looked better than I would've thought. Drummond looks ready to be beastly (more of a scorer than I thought he would be) and they move the ball really well. The game was sloppy (1st game of the year) and perhaps the muddy track suited the Pistons better than the Hawks...uh, not sure that's a good sign.
I watched all of the Bulls beating the Cavs. Great defensive stops at the end by Pau and Butler but frankly it should not have been that close. The Bulls were really better at most everything that night, not to say that they're wildly better than the Cavs but they've played the Cavs tough in the regular season and I wasn't surprised to see them win their opener. And not that it was a blowout but I thought the Bulls kinda got lazy and let the Cavs sneak back into it. Two good teams that will both get better as the year progresses, not much to learn from this one, just a good game to watch.
I watched the Wizards beat the Magic. If you're looking for sneaky teams that might find their way into the playoffs in the East, the Magic could be on that list: they're young but they're really talented, they're gonna be good eventually. And this game showed all the highs and lows of that: they battled against a superior for 47 minutes but the savvy Wizards pulled it out in the end. On the one hand the Wizards are the veteran squad that got the W but on the other hand they weren't vastly superior to the Magic. In tennis you might see a final score where one guy dominated the other, but at any given point in that match the players weren't necessarily all the far apart, the better guy is one who makes the right play at the right moment. Likewise in team sports: the Wizards were better when the clock struck zero but the Magic were better for most of the time before that. The Wizards are gonna get 10-15 more wins than the Magic because they're gonna be better at the right moment but not at ALL moments.
I watched the Celtics roll the Sixers. Okafor has a marvelous debut and I still think he and Nerlens are gonna make a great tag team down low....but not any time soon. The Sixers are still built to be awful. Is this the summer when they finally look to make something happen? They'll have Embiid, Saric, a top 5 pick and a ton of cap space to work with....do they want to be any good? As for the Celtics, they were the Celtics, rolling the Sixers is something they should do with ease and they did.
I did not watch the Nuggets drub the Rockets in Houston (105-85, yipes!) but I'm curious: wtf happened there? A look at the box score shows that all the Rockets shot horribly, it could be the pesky Nuggets brought the tenacious D but I'm guessing the Rockets were just sluggish, a team wide 'flu-like symptoms' let's say. This cannot be a harbinger game: I say the Nuggets are the worst in the West, the Rockets could quite possibly be the best, this lopsided, weird-ass game changes nothing in my mind, so I'm just not even gonna watch it.
I watched the Knicks drub the Bucks in Milwaukee. Weird game: neither Porzingis nor Melo did much of anything in this game and still NYK won by 25 on the road? Uhhhhh....wha...wha happened? The Bucks were without Antetokounpo or Jabari and, man, in case you'd forgotten: MCW cannot score to save his life! Its like he's allergic to the basket. I thought Greg Monroe looked good for the Bucks but without Parker down low and some Greek freakin' on the perimeter, the Bucks just looked stagnant offensively and out of sorts defensively. I'll chalk up the poor D to opening night sweats and a depleted core. As for the Knicks: hey man, Derrick Williams looked good. Look: the term 'bust' is a tricky one because it doesn't refer to the play on the court as much as to his place in the draft order. Williams had too many expectations thrust upon him and got bounced around the league like an orphan but that doesn't mean he's a bad player, he's just not the player we'd been led to believe he was going to be. Draft order can be a curse (just ask Thomas Robinson and Anthony Bennett) but take it easy when you're throwing 'bust' around--Williams was pretty good in Sacramento last year, you just didn't notice because it took place in Sacramento! O'quinn, too, looked ready to be a baller but one observation: felt like he went out of his way to not give Porzingis the ball, was I just imagining that? At the end of the day, the Bucks still have more upside than the Knicks and I fully expect the Bucks to be the better team throughout the season.
I watched the Clippers over the Kings. Man, I thought the Kings looked so awful early on that I don't know how this was even a game. As I watched I just couldn't believe that the Clippers weren't winning by 400 points and in the 4th quarter the Kings actually came back and took the lead! The Clippers had to work to pull it out in the end...and I have no idea why it took so much effort. The Kings looked awful, way awful, awful-er than usual. Cousins was trying too hard, Rondo doesn't try hard enough, McLemore was non-existent for most of the game, Cauley-Stein is such a poor fit for this team--the Kings might be much worse than I thought. Still, though, they had a lead late in the 4th quarter, no idea how that came to be.
Watched the Wolves beat the Lakers. The Lakers were the better team for almost all of this game, not sure how they pissed it away at the end. Rubio confidently knocking down jumpers--where did that come from?!? I think Towns is gonna be really good, Wiggins looks like a legit DPOY-type player, I still think the Wolves are in lottery territory but they get might good faster than you think. As for the Lakers, they're a slopfest, man. They've got some talent and some tenacity, they'll win a few games, but they're not any good. They're not really a tank-type team and I'm not seeing any notable trade assets there (I expect Roy Hibbert to be on a playoff team come April though). But they'll be rolling off a lot of salary this summer, maybe they'll be the Lakers again....some day.
Friday, October 30, 2015
Monday, October 26, 2015
NBA Preview (East)
Bulls (57 wins). I was a believer in the Bulls last year and though they've seemingly added nothing, I'm even more of a believer going into this year. (Well, for the regular season anyway) My rationale last year was that they had enough offense to not have to rely on Derrick Rose and I'm still buying that thesis. Personally I think Bobby Portis can play and could be very useful even as a rookie, I think Hoiberg will get something out of Doug McDermott who wasn't able to contribute much last year and I think they'll start the season with expectations of Mirotic. I think letting go of Thibodeau in favor of da Mayor Fred Hoiberg will bring more offensive efficiency without sacrificing any of the D (the good parts of the Thibs influence will remain while the negative parts are gone). Pau looks reinvigorated, Butler is ready to be a steady star, Noah will be free of the Thibs-abuse and if Rose shows up, the Bulls could be really really dangerous. As it is, I think they've got enough to take the #1 spot in the East.
Cavs (53). The Cavs are clearly the favorite in the East but they're starting the season with a lot of injuries: Love, Kyrie, Shumpert all still potentially out, Mozgov rounding into shape after off-season surgery and who knows what's up with Thompson. As the health gets back in line, the Cavs will be fine and even with all those variables, they'll still win a ton of games, especially after the all-star break.
Heat (51). I really like this Heat roster but it'll take them a while to figure how they fit together. Wade needs service, Dragic can adapt, Bosh needs to see what everyone else is doing, Winslow could be a baller but for now he's just a rookie, McRoberts is coming off an injury, Whiteside has had exactly 1 nice year in this league. As tantalizing as that group is, there are still a lot of what-ifs in there. I think they're gonna be real good though and once they get going, they could be legit contenders in the playoffs (though health could be a serious concern by then).
Wizards (50). Wall is ready to be a big star and while I like the team currently constructed, I can see them ready to deal at the deadline so this roster might noticeably different by the end of the season. Porter is ready to be a real contributor, Beal needs to stay healthy to have a solid season and I'm curious to see rookie Kelly Oubre, he might be really good. They beat the Bulls 2 year ago, the Raptors last year, I think they expect to make the 2nd round and--with the right roster moves--could be ready to sneak into the conference finals.
Hawks (50). I like the Hawks but I don't love them. I think they overachieved last year and while I like the addition of Tiago Splitter, I don't like the loss of Demarre Carrol and I'm dubious on Dennis Shroeder and Tim Hardaway Jr. I just don't see the depth there and there has been enough re-shuffling that it might take a while for them to find themselves. Horford's in a contract year, he'll be balling (and could be the tastiest trade bait available if the Hawks season goes sideways).
Raptors (45). I thought the Raptors went out ugly last year, I expected the full-on fire sale in the off-season and that didn't really materialize. The changes though are kinda weird: Cory Joseph (hometown hero) is a nice player, we'll see what he does with more minutes; can they make something out of Anthony Bennett (another hometown hero)? If so, he'll be the bargain of the year, if not he might be a serious bringdown on the team; are Caboclo and Noquiera ready for prime time?; is Derozan more valuable as tradebait? The Lowry-Carroll-Valenciunas trio seems to be set for the next coupla years, we'll see if its gonna work.
Bucks (42). Everybody's favorite bust-out team, I look forward to watching them because I love all the young talent. But I'm not so sure they're gonna win and I don't think they'll be winning in the playoffs this year. MCW, Middleton, Antetokounpo, Jabari and Monroe makes for a nice starting five but so far none of those guys have been anywhere or done anything, it'll take a Herculean effort to do some real damage. I like 'em, I'll be watching but my expectations are tempered for now.
Celtics (41). The C's way overachieved last year. They've got the best coach in the league (let me repeat that: BEST COACH IN THE LEAGUE) and they play with a lot of heart. But their ability to sneak up on people will be vastly diminished this year and they're still in that annoying place of having a lot of 'nice' players but no real star to take over. David Lee is a solid veteran but he's not gonna carry a team, Isiah Thomas wants to start but I suspect his efficiency plummets the more he plays, Evan Turner could be a catalyst or a distraction. I still love the coach (best in the league) and there's nothing wrong the team but I just don't see how they're really any better than they were last year. GM Danny Ainge has been trying to wheel and deal for a coupla years now and his inability to pull off a deal will not deter him from trying; they've got a big trade waiting for them, could/should change everything about their season.
Pacers (38). Overachieved last year, they get Paul George back and I like the addition of Monta Ellis but losing West and Hibbert makes for a real challenge for them to remake themselves. I like PG and Monta and Coach Vogel but I'm not seeing enough else on that team to think they'll be in the playoff hunt.
Hornets (36). Like the Celtics, they have an interesting collection of players and an under appreciated coach. But can Big Al carry this team? That's a tall order in a conference where others teams are ready to make a big jump. Kemba is nice but I don't think he's enough of a scorer to carry a team, the bench has improved but I don't see enough offense to make a difference. Better than last year but not good enough to be better than 9th place.
Knicks (32). They can't possibly be as bad as last year but even if they're way waaaaay better won't be good enough. I can see Melo being in MVP contention...til everyone realizes even at his best he doesn't WIN games. I wouldn't say I love any of their off-season moves but in terms of risk/reward, I thought they had a pretty good summer: Lopez and O'quinn should make a nice combo down low, Williams and Seraphin are nice low risk pick ups, keep an eye on Jerian Grant. I'm not really buying the coexistential-ness of Melo and Prozingas except as Melo's audition for another team. I think the push-pull between them will keep the team discombobulated. They'll be vastly better but they'll still be watching the playoffs on TV. (I'm really starting to buy into the Melo trade rumors, let the speculation begin on who his next team will be!)
Magic (32). Like the Bucks, I love all the young talent and they'll be a regular on my League Pass this year. I like bringing Coach Skiles to whip the squad into shape, they'll be fun to watch and they'll be in a lot more 4th quarters than they were last year. But I still don't see them winning too many more games this year. But they're growing in the right direction, one more lottery pick (and one or two savvy trades) and they'll be a legit contender in the East in the next year or two.
Pistons (32). Hmmm, Stan Van is a smart man but I'm not seeing the method to the madness in Detroit. I can see Drummond having a breakout season but he'll be more Deandre Jordan than Anthony Davis. I don't see how Jennings (coming off a vicious injury) and Reggie Jax co-exist, I'm not a believer in Caldwell-Pope, the supporting cast (Ilyasova, Marcus Morris, Meeks) is nice but nothing superlative. Stanley Johnson is a sneaky ROY pick, if he's a bust-out baller maybe the Pistons sniff the playoffs but relying on a rookie is an odd place for Stan Van to find himself. I want to like the Pistons, I want to like Stan Van's big picture plan....but I don't.
Nets (24). Everything about this team is just gonna be kinda sorry. This team was built to dominate and they have not dominated anything at all. The roster has a lot of nice players, the real motivation this year is for everyone to play well enough to become trade bait. Are Hollis-Jefferson, Brown and McCullough gonna be keepers? We'll see.
Sixers (22). I think Okafor and Nerlens are gonna make a great combo but the rest of the roster is still a hodge podge of hard working mediocre players. To my mind, this season is probably gonna be all about what they can get for Joel Embiid (I can already tell that pointless trade ideas for Embiid is gonna be a regular feature this year on the blog).
Cavs (53). The Cavs are clearly the favorite in the East but they're starting the season with a lot of injuries: Love, Kyrie, Shumpert all still potentially out, Mozgov rounding into shape after off-season surgery and who knows what's up with Thompson. As the health gets back in line, the Cavs will be fine and even with all those variables, they'll still win a ton of games, especially after the all-star break.
Heat (51). I really like this Heat roster but it'll take them a while to figure how they fit together. Wade needs service, Dragic can adapt, Bosh needs to see what everyone else is doing, Winslow could be a baller but for now he's just a rookie, McRoberts is coming off an injury, Whiteside has had exactly 1 nice year in this league. As tantalizing as that group is, there are still a lot of what-ifs in there. I think they're gonna be real good though and once they get going, they could be legit contenders in the playoffs (though health could be a serious concern by then).
Wizards (50). Wall is ready to be a big star and while I like the team currently constructed, I can see them ready to deal at the deadline so this roster might noticeably different by the end of the season. Porter is ready to be a real contributor, Beal needs to stay healthy to have a solid season and I'm curious to see rookie Kelly Oubre, he might be really good. They beat the Bulls 2 year ago, the Raptors last year, I think they expect to make the 2nd round and--with the right roster moves--could be ready to sneak into the conference finals.
Hawks (50). I like the Hawks but I don't love them. I think they overachieved last year and while I like the addition of Tiago Splitter, I don't like the loss of Demarre Carrol and I'm dubious on Dennis Shroeder and Tim Hardaway Jr. I just don't see the depth there and there has been enough re-shuffling that it might take a while for them to find themselves. Horford's in a contract year, he'll be balling (and could be the tastiest trade bait available if the Hawks season goes sideways).
Raptors (45). I thought the Raptors went out ugly last year, I expected the full-on fire sale in the off-season and that didn't really materialize. The changes though are kinda weird: Cory Joseph (hometown hero) is a nice player, we'll see what he does with more minutes; can they make something out of Anthony Bennett (another hometown hero)? If so, he'll be the bargain of the year, if not he might be a serious bringdown on the team; are Caboclo and Noquiera ready for prime time?; is Derozan more valuable as tradebait? The Lowry-Carroll-Valenciunas trio seems to be set for the next coupla years, we'll see if its gonna work.
Bucks (42). Everybody's favorite bust-out team, I look forward to watching them because I love all the young talent. But I'm not so sure they're gonna win and I don't think they'll be winning in the playoffs this year. MCW, Middleton, Antetokounpo, Jabari and Monroe makes for a nice starting five but so far none of those guys have been anywhere or done anything, it'll take a Herculean effort to do some real damage. I like 'em, I'll be watching but my expectations are tempered for now.
Celtics (41). The C's way overachieved last year. They've got the best coach in the league (let me repeat that: BEST COACH IN THE LEAGUE) and they play with a lot of heart. But their ability to sneak up on people will be vastly diminished this year and they're still in that annoying place of having a lot of 'nice' players but no real star to take over. David Lee is a solid veteran but he's not gonna carry a team, Isiah Thomas wants to start but I suspect his efficiency plummets the more he plays, Evan Turner could be a catalyst or a distraction. I still love the coach (best in the league) and there's nothing wrong the team but I just don't see how they're really any better than they were last year. GM Danny Ainge has been trying to wheel and deal for a coupla years now and his inability to pull off a deal will not deter him from trying; they've got a big trade waiting for them, could/should change everything about their season.
Pacers (38). Overachieved last year, they get Paul George back and I like the addition of Monta Ellis but losing West and Hibbert makes for a real challenge for them to remake themselves. I like PG and Monta and Coach Vogel but I'm not seeing enough else on that team to think they'll be in the playoff hunt.
Hornets (36). Like the Celtics, they have an interesting collection of players and an under appreciated coach. But can Big Al carry this team? That's a tall order in a conference where others teams are ready to make a big jump. Kemba is nice but I don't think he's enough of a scorer to carry a team, the bench has improved but I don't see enough offense to make a difference. Better than last year but not good enough to be better than 9th place.
Knicks (32). They can't possibly be as bad as last year but even if they're way waaaaay better won't be good enough. I can see Melo being in MVP contention...til everyone realizes even at his best he doesn't WIN games. I wouldn't say I love any of their off-season moves but in terms of risk/reward, I thought they had a pretty good summer: Lopez and O'quinn should make a nice combo down low, Williams and Seraphin are nice low risk pick ups, keep an eye on Jerian Grant. I'm not really buying the coexistential-ness of Melo and Prozingas except as Melo's audition for another team. I think the push-pull between them will keep the team discombobulated. They'll be vastly better but they'll still be watching the playoffs on TV. (I'm really starting to buy into the Melo trade rumors, let the speculation begin on who his next team will be!)
Magic (32). Like the Bucks, I love all the young talent and they'll be a regular on my League Pass this year. I like bringing Coach Skiles to whip the squad into shape, they'll be fun to watch and they'll be in a lot more 4th quarters than they were last year. But I still don't see them winning too many more games this year. But they're growing in the right direction, one more lottery pick (and one or two savvy trades) and they'll be a legit contender in the East in the next year or two.
Pistons (32). Hmmm, Stan Van is a smart man but I'm not seeing the method to the madness in Detroit. I can see Drummond having a breakout season but he'll be more Deandre Jordan than Anthony Davis. I don't see how Jennings (coming off a vicious injury) and Reggie Jax co-exist, I'm not a believer in Caldwell-Pope, the supporting cast (Ilyasova, Marcus Morris, Meeks) is nice but nothing superlative. Stanley Johnson is a sneaky ROY pick, if he's a bust-out baller maybe the Pistons sniff the playoffs but relying on a rookie is an odd place for Stan Van to find himself. I want to like the Pistons, I want to like Stan Van's big picture plan....but I don't.
Nets (24). Everything about this team is just gonna be kinda sorry. This team was built to dominate and they have not dominated anything at all. The roster has a lot of nice players, the real motivation this year is for everyone to play well enough to become trade bait. Are Hollis-Jefferson, Brown and McCullough gonna be keepers? We'll see.
Sixers (22). I think Okafor and Nerlens are gonna make a great combo but the rest of the roster is still a hodge podge of hard working mediocre players. To my mind, this season is probably gonna be all about what they can get for Joel Embiid (I can already tell that pointless trade ideas for Embiid is gonna be a regular feature this year on the blog).
NBA Preview (West)
Warriors (61 wins). I'm not trying be that guy but the Warriors did enjoy a great deal of luck last year. They deserved to win, they were just about perfect last season, and while they're still one of the tippity-toppity best teams in the league, it is unrealistic to think they'll breeze their way to back to back championships. I still have them finishing 1st in the West but I just can't see them being as good as last year. Coach Kerr is unlikely to start the season on the bench, all you need to show that their stellar health last season (even their one injury was providential!) cannot be repeated. How they respond to a normal amount of injuries will determine just how dominant they can be.
Rockets (59). I've been skeptical of the James Harden model (one unbelievably efficient ball dominant player that does everything) but perhaps my skepticism is just for the playoffs. In the regular season I think that can be successful, especially when the Rockets have upgraded the supporting cast with very little effort. This is a really solid team all around. Look for Motiejunas, Jones, Capela and McDaniels to each take a step forward, look for the veterans to be all veteran-y (Lawson, Howard, Ariza, Terry, Brewer, Beverley), look for their incoming rooks (Dekker, Harrel) to get their moments to shine. That's pretty good stuff, man. I think they'll win a lot of games this year and Harden will be a top 3 MVP candidate.
Thunder (57). I think KD wins the MVP, I think Westbrook plays even angrier than usual, I think Ibaka's role might net him a 6th Man Award, I think Coach Donovan juggles the supporting cast well enough for this machine to hum along. I think they are painfully aware of what they've left on the table the last coupla years and that this may be the last hurrah and I think they bring it from the gitty and bury people all year long. I fear, though, they may be worn out come playoff time.
Spurs (55). I was a bit skeptical of the addition of Lamarcus Aldridge: while he's definitely a legit badass scorer, I wasn't convinced that his game would blend seamlessly with the Spur style. But, who am I kidding? He's a badass player and this is a team that knows how to make the most of badass players. They may fumble for a little while but by the all-star break this team will be rounding into seriously dangerous form. Indeed, bringing in Aldridge and West should ease the load on Tony Parker (I think he'll be better this year than he's been in a while) and Manu (he looked good in pre-season). I have them coming into the playoffs in 4th place, just enough below the radar to feel like the underdog.
Clippers (54). Chris Paul is a great (regular season) PG, Blake Griffin has really come into his own recently as the dominant offensive force we all knew he was going to be, Deandre Jordan should've won DPOY last year (and I think he will this year), Paul Pierce still has plenty of run left in him, JJ Reddick is one of the sharpest shooters in the league, Lance Stephenson desperately needs success to restore his image, Josh Smith too, Jamal Crawford is still one of the finest bench players in the league (and probably irked about the trade rumors that swirled around him all summer), Austin Rivers wants to show that he's more than just his father's son, even Pablo Prigioni is a sneaky good control freak off the bench. Man, gonna be a serious disappointment when they get run by the Spurs in the 1st round (yeah, Clippers gonna Clip).
Grizzlies (51). I kinda love the Grizzlies, I love the players, love the ethic, and they're still just one trade away from being a seriously dangerous team even in the West. But I'm not seeing the improvement, I'm only seeing the slow deterioration. (How do they get Melo? Oh yeah: they don't) I'm all in on the Gasol-Zeebo-Conley-Allen quartet but I'm still not in on any of the rest of that roster. Four really good players just won't be good enough to win a playoff series in the West. Indeed, they're a trade or two away from getting usurped by the Pelicans.
Pelicans (48). I adore Anthony Davis and I appreciate that the Pelican brass has desperately tried to wheel and deal him some teammates right now. But their efforts have left the cupboard pretty bare. That said, AD is good enough to bring the team along even if the team itself doesn't really want to. Evans is probably out til New Year's and Ajinca, Asik and Pondexter will probably also be in and out of the lineup early on. That's putting a lot of pressure on the oft-injured Holliday, the overrated Gordon and a bench that leaves a lot to be desired. Oh well, Davis is good enough to elevate this bunch at least more than their near rivals can rise. I like the Pelicans to get up to 7th this year (one more year for the salary cap to go up and for Eric Gordon's ruinous contract to finally disappear; one more year til they finally get Davis the help he needs/deserves).
Suns (41). Okay, I admit it: I'm a sucker for the Suns. I (still) think Eric Bledsoe is the next great NBA badass, I think Branden Knight is one of the most underappreciated PG's in the league, I think Devin Booker has a decent shot at ROY, I think Alex Len and TJ Warren are ready to blossom, I think this team is gonna score, score, score and while I didn't really get the Tyson Chandler signing, I think he's a good player and he'll give them a hint of defensive backbone they otherwise wouldn't have had. I don't trust the Suns upper management, the culture seems a little putrid there, so a mid-season upgrade is probably not coming. But I like the squad they've got on the court, at least enough to get past the Jazz for the right to be the sacrificial lamb to the Warriors.
Jazz (40). High on my League Pass rankings, love watching the young talent and this team is well stocked in such. I like the coach, I like the culture, I like their direction, I like the youth (except for Trey Burke), I think they'll be better than last year. But I think they're still another year away from getting some playoff run. (Keep an eye on Trey Lyles, a sneaky ROY pick, I think that kid can really play and as he gets used to the pro game, he could be really really good)
Kings (38). A lotta talent, a lotta mess. I think Cousins is a great (GREAT) player, Gay is a shockingly efficient player, Rondo is a no-nonsense leader and the supporting cast improved (a little) over the summer. But I still don't think they'll be very good. They'll have moments, they'll have good streaks (14 W's in 19 games) and bad streaks (2 W's in the next 19 games), they'll be competitive into the 4th quarter, they'll be a tough out, they'll sting the sleeping teams but they won't beat the teams that bring their best game. They'll be okay, they won't be laughably bad but they won't make the playoffs.
Mavs (33). I think the Mavs are really in a bad way right now, I'm only taking them to win this many games because of inertia: they're used to winning a lot of games and so they'll keep winning like a chicken with its head cut off. Their 1st round pick next year belongs to the Celtics; its top 7 protected, so they are incentivized to blow it up but Coach Carlisle ain't a tank commander (though he does have a lucrative extension awaiting him), Dirk gets nothing out of losing and even though Cuban understands the business of the game, he's too entrenched with those guys to force them to walk the plank. So I think the Mavs will be pretty terrible but will still pull out more games in the 4th quarter than you think they oughta.
Blazers (31). I was dubious of the early summer projections of Aldridge to the Spurs, I kept thinking he'd return to the Blazers. In that light, I thought their off-season was actually pretty good: Davis/Plumlee replace Lopez, Henderson replaces Afflalo, Aminu replaces Batum, Harkless replaces Matthews. I know, I know, its not great but if you keep Aldridge, its not such a drop off and the change may have been invigorating. But they didn't keep Aldridge, so the moves just look desperate and weak. But if Lillard has a big year (very possible) then the Blazers shouldn't be awful. The salad days have passed but the 'rebuilding' period ahead doesn't look too dire (and if the Mavs and Kings flail, the Blazers might even be fighting for the 8th spot).
Lakers (27). The Lakers (like the Knicks) almost have to be much better than last year. While I wasn't a huge fan of their off-season moves, this year's roster is clearly better than last year's. Russell and Randle are the future (or are they Melo bait?), all else is just upgraded filler. (Personally, I think Kobe will be playing in 2016-17 and probably not for the Lakers, just wanted to get that on the record)
Wolves (23). Sorry to hear about the passing of Flip Saunders, shame to see he won't see the flowering of the seeds he's planted. This team is still a year or two (throw in another good lottery pick) from being good, but the core of young talent is intriguing. Gonna be a great League Pass team all year long but I don't see them gutting out too many wins in the West.
Nuggets (17). All about Mudiay and whatever they can get for Faried. Otherwise, not much to see here. Easily the worst team in the West.
Rockets (59). I've been skeptical of the James Harden model (one unbelievably efficient ball dominant player that does everything) but perhaps my skepticism is just for the playoffs. In the regular season I think that can be successful, especially when the Rockets have upgraded the supporting cast with very little effort. This is a really solid team all around. Look for Motiejunas, Jones, Capela and McDaniels to each take a step forward, look for the veterans to be all veteran-y (Lawson, Howard, Ariza, Terry, Brewer, Beverley), look for their incoming rooks (Dekker, Harrel) to get their moments to shine. That's pretty good stuff, man. I think they'll win a lot of games this year and Harden will be a top 3 MVP candidate.
Thunder (57). I think KD wins the MVP, I think Westbrook plays even angrier than usual, I think Ibaka's role might net him a 6th Man Award, I think Coach Donovan juggles the supporting cast well enough for this machine to hum along. I think they are painfully aware of what they've left on the table the last coupla years and that this may be the last hurrah and I think they bring it from the gitty and bury people all year long. I fear, though, they may be worn out come playoff time.
Spurs (55). I was a bit skeptical of the addition of Lamarcus Aldridge: while he's definitely a legit badass scorer, I wasn't convinced that his game would blend seamlessly with the Spur style. But, who am I kidding? He's a badass player and this is a team that knows how to make the most of badass players. They may fumble for a little while but by the all-star break this team will be rounding into seriously dangerous form. Indeed, bringing in Aldridge and West should ease the load on Tony Parker (I think he'll be better this year than he's been in a while) and Manu (he looked good in pre-season). I have them coming into the playoffs in 4th place, just enough below the radar to feel like the underdog.
Clippers (54). Chris Paul is a great (regular season) PG, Blake Griffin has really come into his own recently as the dominant offensive force we all knew he was going to be, Deandre Jordan should've won DPOY last year (and I think he will this year), Paul Pierce still has plenty of run left in him, JJ Reddick is one of the sharpest shooters in the league, Lance Stephenson desperately needs success to restore his image, Josh Smith too, Jamal Crawford is still one of the finest bench players in the league (and probably irked about the trade rumors that swirled around him all summer), Austin Rivers wants to show that he's more than just his father's son, even Pablo Prigioni is a sneaky good control freak off the bench. Man, gonna be a serious disappointment when they get run by the Spurs in the 1st round (yeah, Clippers gonna Clip).
Grizzlies (51). I kinda love the Grizzlies, I love the players, love the ethic, and they're still just one trade away from being a seriously dangerous team even in the West. But I'm not seeing the improvement, I'm only seeing the slow deterioration. (How do they get Melo? Oh yeah: they don't) I'm all in on the Gasol-Zeebo-Conley-Allen quartet but I'm still not in on any of the rest of that roster. Four really good players just won't be good enough to win a playoff series in the West. Indeed, they're a trade or two away from getting usurped by the Pelicans.
Pelicans (48). I adore Anthony Davis and I appreciate that the Pelican brass has desperately tried to wheel and deal him some teammates right now. But their efforts have left the cupboard pretty bare. That said, AD is good enough to bring the team along even if the team itself doesn't really want to. Evans is probably out til New Year's and Ajinca, Asik and Pondexter will probably also be in and out of the lineup early on. That's putting a lot of pressure on the oft-injured Holliday, the overrated Gordon and a bench that leaves a lot to be desired. Oh well, Davis is good enough to elevate this bunch at least more than their near rivals can rise. I like the Pelicans to get up to 7th this year (one more year for the salary cap to go up and for Eric Gordon's ruinous contract to finally disappear; one more year til they finally get Davis the help he needs/deserves).
Suns (41). Okay, I admit it: I'm a sucker for the Suns. I (still) think Eric Bledsoe is the next great NBA badass, I think Branden Knight is one of the most underappreciated PG's in the league, I think Devin Booker has a decent shot at ROY, I think Alex Len and TJ Warren are ready to blossom, I think this team is gonna score, score, score and while I didn't really get the Tyson Chandler signing, I think he's a good player and he'll give them a hint of defensive backbone they otherwise wouldn't have had. I don't trust the Suns upper management, the culture seems a little putrid there, so a mid-season upgrade is probably not coming. But I like the squad they've got on the court, at least enough to get past the Jazz for the right to be the sacrificial lamb to the Warriors.
Jazz (40). High on my League Pass rankings, love watching the young talent and this team is well stocked in such. I like the coach, I like the culture, I like their direction, I like the youth (except for Trey Burke), I think they'll be better than last year. But I think they're still another year away from getting some playoff run. (Keep an eye on Trey Lyles, a sneaky ROY pick, I think that kid can really play and as he gets used to the pro game, he could be really really good)
Kings (38). A lotta talent, a lotta mess. I think Cousins is a great (GREAT) player, Gay is a shockingly efficient player, Rondo is a no-nonsense leader and the supporting cast improved (a little) over the summer. But I still don't think they'll be very good. They'll have moments, they'll have good streaks (14 W's in 19 games) and bad streaks (2 W's in the next 19 games), they'll be competitive into the 4th quarter, they'll be a tough out, they'll sting the sleeping teams but they won't beat the teams that bring their best game. They'll be okay, they won't be laughably bad but they won't make the playoffs.
Mavs (33). I think the Mavs are really in a bad way right now, I'm only taking them to win this many games because of inertia: they're used to winning a lot of games and so they'll keep winning like a chicken with its head cut off. Their 1st round pick next year belongs to the Celtics; its top 7 protected, so they are incentivized to blow it up but Coach Carlisle ain't a tank commander (though he does have a lucrative extension awaiting him), Dirk gets nothing out of losing and even though Cuban understands the business of the game, he's too entrenched with those guys to force them to walk the plank. So I think the Mavs will be pretty terrible but will still pull out more games in the 4th quarter than you think they oughta.
Blazers (31). I was dubious of the early summer projections of Aldridge to the Spurs, I kept thinking he'd return to the Blazers. In that light, I thought their off-season was actually pretty good: Davis/Plumlee replace Lopez, Henderson replaces Afflalo, Aminu replaces Batum, Harkless replaces Matthews. I know, I know, its not great but if you keep Aldridge, its not such a drop off and the change may have been invigorating. But they didn't keep Aldridge, so the moves just look desperate and weak. But if Lillard has a big year (very possible) then the Blazers shouldn't be awful. The salad days have passed but the 'rebuilding' period ahead doesn't look too dire (and if the Mavs and Kings flail, the Blazers might even be fighting for the 8th spot).
Lakers (27). The Lakers (like the Knicks) almost have to be much better than last year. While I wasn't a huge fan of their off-season moves, this year's roster is clearly better than last year's. Russell and Randle are the future (or are they Melo bait?), all else is just upgraded filler. (Personally, I think Kobe will be playing in 2016-17 and probably not for the Lakers, just wanted to get that on the record)
Wolves (23). Sorry to hear about the passing of Flip Saunders, shame to see he won't see the flowering of the seeds he's planted. This team is still a year or two (throw in another good lottery pick) from being good, but the core of young talent is intriguing. Gonna be a great League Pass team all year long but I don't see them gutting out too many wins in the West.
Nuggets (17). All about Mudiay and whatever they can get for Faried. Otherwise, not much to see here. Easily the worst team in the West.
World Series
The two best teams I watched this year were the Blue Jays and the Pirates, neither of whom are still around. The Blue Jays seems to get frustrated by the no-quit-ness of the Royals and even when it looked like the Jays had turned the corner and were about to come back on them, the Royals kept the hitting going and closed out the series. The tenacity of the Royals is their best attribute, the pitching is okay, the lineup is good but not great, the defense is solid, but they never quit, they make use of all 27 outs and that keeps them in games that they probably ought to lose.
The Pirates fell prey to the 1-game playoff for the 3rd straight year. Sucks, but that's the way it goes, anyone can win one game in baseball. The Cubs blasted through their division opponents with timely power hitting and shutdown pitching. But against the Mets, the weather turned cool and that alone seemed to finish off the Cubs. I thought the Mets played well but more than that the Cubs failed to play from behind, they were the un-Royals, watching games slip away rather than aggressively trying to win them back. The Mets pitching was really good and the bats showed up at the right time but I can't help thinking they've been overachieving all year long. They exposed the lack of depth of the Dodgers and caught the Cubs at a bad moment. Are the Mets really this good?
Looking forward to this Series, these are not two teams I would've thought we'd see at the end of the year but they're both playing well at the right time and here we are. This match-up is all about the Mets pitching against the Royals lineup. The Mets should be able to break through against the Royal staff but if the Royals can score on the Mets, they'll win. I'm betting they will. I'll take the Royals in 7.
Friday, October 23, 2015
Rugby World Cup
So Australia, New Zealand and South Africa are all in the semi-finals? What a shocker! I haven't watched a single second of this tournament (I don't have the right cable package) but these last few matches should be all-world rugby action.
FIFA U-17 World Cup
USA got bounced from the U-17 World Cup tonight after a 4-1 beatdown from host country, Chile. I was hoping for a more promising result but USA found themselves in the toughest group: Nigeria (traditional youth power), Croatia (supposedly loaded with talent), Chile (the host country, always a tough out). Perhaps it was just bad luck but hopes were high for this squad and they got rolled when they needed to step up.
I'll go ahead and use this as an opportunity to again announce my displeasure with coach Klinsmann. I thought the result in the 2014 World Cup was disappointing and entirely his fault; the 4th place finish in this year's Gold Cup was disappointing; the inability to solve Mexico in the CONCACAF Cup just a few weeks ago was disappointing. Now the U-17 team can't scratch out a single victory in group and has no chance of moving into the quarters. At some point Sunil Gulati has to put the responsibility on Klinsmann.
Klinsmann has re-designed the entire USA soccer pipeline but he hasn't gotten the results from it because (I believe) he looks at the available players and says to himself, 'None of these guys are German!' I think he's generally done a good job bringing young athletes into the soccer world (he has produced more potential for talent), but he hasn't been able to win with the players he's developing. I say its time for him to move aside (actually I thought a year ago was the time for him to move aside!) and give someone else a chance to do something with the crop of players that are out there. I think there are plenty of coaches who see opportunities with this USA team and Jurgen Klinsmann simply isn't one of them.
I'll go ahead and use this as an opportunity to again announce my displeasure with coach Klinsmann. I thought the result in the 2014 World Cup was disappointing and entirely his fault; the 4th place finish in this year's Gold Cup was disappointing; the inability to solve Mexico in the CONCACAF Cup just a few weeks ago was disappointing. Now the U-17 team can't scratch out a single victory in group and has no chance of moving into the quarters. At some point Sunil Gulati has to put the responsibility on Klinsmann.
Klinsmann has re-designed the entire USA soccer pipeline but he hasn't gotten the results from it because (I believe) he looks at the available players and says to himself, 'None of these guys are German!' I think he's generally done a good job bringing young athletes into the soccer world (he has produced more potential for talent), but he hasn't been able to win with the players he's developing. I say its time for him to move aside (actually I thought a year ago was the time for him to move aside!) and give someone else a chance to do something with the crop of players that are out there. I think there are plenty of coaches who see opportunities with this USA team and Jurgen Klinsmann simply isn't one of them.
NBA Bric-a-Brac
Tristan Thompson signs 5yr/$82m deal with the Cavs. Much talked about deal, much talked about holdout, welcome to the new salary cap. Thompson is a fine rebounder, solid inside guy off the bench, certainly not a star, but probably worth the money. As the cap rises, this will look like a typical deal, so he probably did the right thing to hold out. The Cavs will be in some turmoil for the first coupla months and Thompson without training camp will take a while to contribute, look for the Cavs to kinda suck til about New Year's but they'll be rolling come playoff time.
Lamar Odom seems to be getting better, apparently getting back with Khloe Khardashian. Brain dead coma or married to a Kardashian?....Hmmm, that's a tough one.
Thabo Sefalosha suing the NYPD. Good for him! Pro athletes and local cops are perhaps the two most maligned figures in contemporary American media, it'll be interesting to see them go at it. Thabo already won the criminal investigation--apparently prosecutors were dying for him to take a plea bargain and he declined (good for him!)--which pretty much gives him the upper hand in his civil suit. The NYPD has shown themselves to be a bunch of brown shirt thugs and they deserve to get a high profile thumping. (Memo to James Blake: you should sue, too, man! You should the NYPD and then after you win, sue them again for the emotional distress of having to sue them the first time. Don't let it go, Blake, their treatment of you was shameful, give them the beating they deserve)
Thunder picks up options on Steven Adams, Mitch McGary and Andre Roberson. Adams is a no-brainer but probably only one of McGary or Roberson will be around next year. We'll see what Coach Donovan can get out of that supporting cast to know which one of these pickups will be worth it.
Jazz picked up options on Exum, Hood, Burke and Gobert. Gobert has established himself as keeper, I think Exum too is worth the pick up. Hood is cheap enough that he's probably worth it too. But then there's Burke: I thought they should've packaged Burke for a draft day trade back in June, I'm not sure he's efficient enough, I'm pretty sure he's not much of a scorer, the Jazz has young depth, perhaps they can make him work (but since he was a higher draft pick, his salary is slotted higher than the other guys).
Pelicans picks up PG Nate Robinson. Veteran depth for a banged up team, always liked Nate Rob. Coming off the bench and being a 10 minute microwave guy will serve this team well later in the season, but trying to get big minutes out of him early on while everyone is hurt might get kinda ugly.
Gregg Popovich to replace Coach K as head coach of Team USA following 2016 Olympics. Obviously Pop is a great coach and will be great for Team USA but I'm a little surprised he wants the job (he never liked Manu playing internationally, for example, shows me he doesn't care about the int'l game). Also, I've always believe that John Calipari wants that job but was never in the right elbow-rubbing circle to get the gig. Cal is younger than Pop but I got a feeling he never gets the job (feels like Brad Stevens, Mark Few might be higher on the totem pole).
Some notable recent roster cuts: Ben Gordon (Warriors), thought he might hook on with them, thicken up their bench but he really isn't very good so I reckon they can do better.
Jazz waived Jack Cooley and Bryce Cotton, who both played a bit for them last year and Treveon Graham, who was once upon a time thought of as 1st round talent then ended up undrafted; I assume all three guys can and will filter into their D-League system.
Jimmer Fredette (Spurs), at this point he's not an expensive player and I thought he might give them a little something something off the bench (not saying I love the guy but he is the poor man's Steph Curry), we'll see if the Jazz give him one last shot.
Robert Upshaw (Lakers) was a 1st round talent that ran into some health problems leading up to the draft and fell completely out of favor, was rooting for him, he should get some D-League run.
David Stockton (Kings) played some last year but the Kings have upgraded (uh, sorta) their bench, guess Stockton goes to the D-League.
Terran Petteway (Hawks) was another one of those that was thought to be a 1st rounder last year that went undrafted, Hawks might be too deep, too set in their ways for what Petteway offers but he could still hook on somewhere.
Cartier Martin (Pistons), didn't they just re-sign him? Stan Van traded for him, re-upped him and then cut him? I don't get anything SVG is doing in Detroit.
Lamar Odom seems to be getting better, apparently getting back with Khloe Khardashian. Brain dead coma or married to a Kardashian?....Hmmm, that's a tough one.
Thabo Sefalosha suing the NYPD. Good for him! Pro athletes and local cops are perhaps the two most maligned figures in contemporary American media, it'll be interesting to see them go at it. Thabo already won the criminal investigation--apparently prosecutors were dying for him to take a plea bargain and he declined (good for him!)--which pretty much gives him the upper hand in his civil suit. The NYPD has shown themselves to be a bunch of brown shirt thugs and they deserve to get a high profile thumping. (Memo to James Blake: you should sue, too, man! You should the NYPD and then after you win, sue them again for the emotional distress of having to sue them the first time. Don't let it go, Blake, their treatment of you was shameful, give them the beating they deserve)
Thunder picks up options on Steven Adams, Mitch McGary and Andre Roberson. Adams is a no-brainer but probably only one of McGary or Roberson will be around next year. We'll see what Coach Donovan can get out of that supporting cast to know which one of these pickups will be worth it.
Jazz picked up options on Exum, Hood, Burke and Gobert. Gobert has established himself as keeper, I think Exum too is worth the pick up. Hood is cheap enough that he's probably worth it too. But then there's Burke: I thought they should've packaged Burke for a draft day trade back in June, I'm not sure he's efficient enough, I'm pretty sure he's not much of a scorer, the Jazz has young depth, perhaps they can make him work (but since he was a higher draft pick, his salary is slotted higher than the other guys).
Pelicans picks up PG Nate Robinson. Veteran depth for a banged up team, always liked Nate Rob. Coming off the bench and being a 10 minute microwave guy will serve this team well later in the season, but trying to get big minutes out of him early on while everyone is hurt might get kinda ugly.
Gregg Popovich to replace Coach K as head coach of Team USA following 2016 Olympics. Obviously Pop is a great coach and will be great for Team USA but I'm a little surprised he wants the job (he never liked Manu playing internationally, for example, shows me he doesn't care about the int'l game). Also, I've always believe that John Calipari wants that job but was never in the right elbow-rubbing circle to get the gig. Cal is younger than Pop but I got a feeling he never gets the job (feels like Brad Stevens, Mark Few might be higher on the totem pole).
Some notable recent roster cuts: Ben Gordon (Warriors), thought he might hook on with them, thicken up their bench but he really isn't very good so I reckon they can do better.
Jazz waived Jack Cooley and Bryce Cotton, who both played a bit for them last year and Treveon Graham, who was once upon a time thought of as 1st round talent then ended up undrafted; I assume all three guys can and will filter into their D-League system.
Jimmer Fredette (Spurs), at this point he's not an expensive player and I thought he might give them a little something something off the bench (not saying I love the guy but he is the poor man's Steph Curry), we'll see if the Jazz give him one last shot.
Robert Upshaw (Lakers) was a 1st round talent that ran into some health problems leading up to the draft and fell completely out of favor, was rooting for him, he should get some D-League run.
David Stockton (Kings) played some last year but the Kings have upgraded (uh, sorta) their bench, guess Stockton goes to the D-League.
Terran Petteway (Hawks) was another one of those that was thought to be a 1st rounder last year that went undrafted, Hawks might be too deep, too set in their ways for what Petteway offers but he could still hook on somewhere.
Cartier Martin (Pistons), didn't they just re-sign him? Stan Van traded for him, re-upped him and then cut him? I don't get anything SVG is doing in Detroit.
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