Sunday, April 20, 2014

Playoff Prediction: Rockets over Blazers in 6

Update 4.26.14 -- Okay this Series caught me way off guard.  My thinking was that the Rockets were solid enough to get past the Blazers, I thought the match-ups were well enough in their favor that they'd win more games (though not enough to compete with anyone else in the West). I thought the Blazers squad was nice but perhaps overachieving, this looks like another edition of the typical good-but-not-great Blazer team that we've seen for most of the last 25 years.  I thought of the match-up thusly: Harden would live at the foul line sapping any deficiency gap he might have against Lillard; Aldridge would probably be better than Howard, Asik, Jones but he wouldn't dominate them so the triumvirate would eventually win out.  But the Blazers aren't falling into Harden's foul traps and Aldridge after two games was, in fact, dominating the Rocket front line.  Blazers win the first two games in Houston.

The Rockets stole a win in Game Three in Portland but I don't see that as an example of the tide turning.  I think the Blazers have shown that if they can stick to their gameplan, than Harden and Howard's weaknesses will be exposed and the Blazers could blitz past them.  I'm shifting from my original perception that the Rockets were (slightly) deeper and more efficient and now buying the narrative that the Blazers have solved those problems and should be able to outscore the Rockets most every night.  I like the Blazers to win the next one and go up 3-1. I'm inclined to take the Blazers in 6 now (even with a loss at home).  The Rockets could come back in 7 but 6 seems impossible.
 

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