5.5.14 -- Are the Pacers done struggling? Was game 7 that come-to-jesus moment where they figured it all out or were they just that much better than the Hawks that it didn't even matter if the light came on? Just remember: when the Pacers have their come-to-jesus moment they will be very good and competitive with the best in the league, but until that moment they're only slightly better than the Atlanta Hawks.
Were the Wizards that dominant against the Bulls or had the Bulls just come farther than they should have? I'm gonna say both. The Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season right now; their starting lineup and bench rotation are as clear and effective as they have been all season; this is a team that knows who they are and that they can be good. Wall has speed that few teams can deal with, Nene is reminding everyone that when he's not hurt he's actually really good, Beal has flashes of brilliance, Gortat, Webster, Ariza, Andre Miller are solid role players. This is a good team and perhaps the Bulls were overworked or overachieving, but the Wizards were better than the Bulls, no disputing that. The Bulls don't get worked very often but they were indeed worked by the Wizards, take that for what its worth.
The Pacers feature the same 5 guys playing all the minutes, and at times those 5 have been untouchable, but not lately. In my gut I wanna take the Wizards in 5. Here's the scenario: Wiz take game 1 in Indy, then take 3 & 4 back in Washington. If Indy is down 3-1 after 4 games then they're gonna need their come-to-Jesus moment and if they don't get it, they lose in 5. If they do get it, the Pacers storm back, win in 7 and we get the Heat-Pacers series we were hoping for all year long.
The season series had the home team winning all 3 games rather handily; the Wizards roster changed radically throughout the 3 games while the Pacers pretty much had the same starting 5 and bench play in all 3 games. I think the Wizards are a more defined team now and the Pacers will adapt to this squad and no one should be able to get any clear upper hand on the other because they're both so good.
It seems absurd that this series would be anything other than really competitive. So this series goes 7 games, right? Its up to Jesus. I laid out two scenarios (Wiz in 5, Pacers in 7) which one am I going with? I'll take the wacky one: Wizards in 5. I'm taking John Wall over Jesus.
5.7.14 -- The more I think about this series, the more I agree with myself. I'm gonna amend my prediction and take the Wizards to win tonight. The Wizards are playing their best basketball of the year and the Pacers are not. Its absurd to expect the Pacers to win like they did in November when they're not playing like they did in November. The Wizards are a good team playing better than usual now, even when the Pacers were playing their best basketball, they easily could've lost to this Wiz team. So why wait for a light to come on? Even if it does come on that's no guarantee the Pacers have enough to beat the Wiz.
I suggested in the last update that if the Pacers get their shit together by game 5 then they could win in 7; two months I wouldn't have given the Wizards a shot to get 7 games on the Pacers so my above scenario has a patina of plausibility: for most of the year we've watched the Pacers be better than the Wizards. But now I can't see how the Pacers get to 7 games on the Wizards! So even if the light does come on (and I'm not seeing Thomas Edison walking through those doors, folks), I think the Wizards are better than the Pacers right now. I'll stick with 5 games but I'm getting to that point where I'd be kinda shocked if the Pacers won this series.
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