I'm a student of American history but not a political person. Indeed, I think politics is wildly overrated and we'd all be better off just ignoring it. But this year I was kinda fascinated by the rise of Bernie Sanders and the lingering odor that is Donald Trump. This year's race had some excitement to it...which faded for me about ten minutes into the first debate, which I found to be even more anti-climatic than the third Dark Knight movie. Just wanted to take a second to make one last prediction.
I think Hillary Clinton wins by a sizable margin. I have no interest in picking out each state and nailing down a specific electoral vote count so I'll stay fairly general. Normally the Achilles' heel of the Democrats is that their most enthusiastic supporters within the culture are not the most vigilant when it comes to actually voting. No love for the party, just the after-party. But this time around I think Trump will inspire the liberal hordes to rise up and vote. I think they'll turn out not for Hillary but against Trump (hey, that counts, too). I suspect the race is called well before the west coast polls close and that there's never really any doubt that Hilary wins. Just for trivial value I'll take Evan McMullin to win Utah.
But I think they'll have minimal effect on the down ballot races. I'll take the Republicans to easily hold the House (which I don't think is a bold prediction) and to narrowly hold the Senate (most popular commentators are saying it'll be 50-50 giving the White House the tiebreaker). I think the buzz is that if Hillary wins, Obama will immediately rescind the nomination of Merrick Garland (kinda of a shame, I think I really like him) meaning we won't have a proper 9-person court until shortly before the end of the term. And since this campaign has featured zilch discussion of actual policy, I have no idea who Clinton would nominate, even though that's gonna be the first thing she does.
All I know is I'm ready for this to be over. I hate elections, I find they bring out all the worst in the American people and absolutely none of the best. So by Wednesday at least there is the hope that as a a people we can be good again (though hopefully not great).
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Monday, November 7, 2016
Monday, March 14, 2016
Next Wave of Primaries
Democrats
On Tuesday there will be primary elections in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri. Sanders is so far behind in delegate count that coming close in any given election isn't nearly good enough and with the Republican side winnowing down, it feels to me like he's outlived his purpose of giving Hillary a challenge. Hillary isn't the most lovable liberal candidate but she is the most politically savvy and I am confident her support is well positioned and well supported across the nation. Even if Sanders hangs around and wins every once in a while, he's still too far behind to catch up.
I'll take Hillary in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, I'll take Sanders in Missouri, and a dead heat in Illinois (which still vastly favors Hillary). Hillary piles on to her lead on delegates and super delegates. I guess Sanders makes it through the next 6 primaries later on this month, there's no reason for him to quit; if he's popular enough to keep getting money out of people then he may as well keep going. But his chances of winning are virtually zero.
Republicans
This is the (next) big day for the Republicans eager to see a brokered convention. If Rubio takes Florida, Kasich takes Ohio, and someone can block Trump in Illinois, then the race continues; if Trump wins those states, I'd say the game is over, not much opportunity left for the others. A mix results in more of the same.
The last few weeks were about the emergence of Cruz (or the lack of emergence of Rubio). I thought after South Carolina, with the exit of Jeb Bush, that Rubio would get a chance to shine; but if I was paying better attention, I would've realized that the last round of states favor Cruz, who made the most of them. The fact that the 'establishment' prefers Rubio to Cruz or Trump is only making it harder for Rubio but he scored well in the last coupla contests in DC and Wyoming. If Rubio wins Florida, he's got a chance to get something going; but if he doesn't, he's got no hope left and will have to step aside to give Cruz a chance. Trump is still in the lead but not commandingly so, Cruz could still best him if this race gets all the California but probably only if Rubio and Kasich get out of the way. Likewise, Kasich must win Ohio to make any difference at all.
What will happen? The polls in Florida have Trump winning big but as we saw in Michigan, the polls can be wrong--waaaaay wrong!--in a year all about the insurgents. It comes down to north of Orlando (should be firm Trump supporters) and south of Orlando (Rubio's stomping ground) and whether the Rubio benefactors want to keep his career alive. If Rubio loses in Florida, he is certainly out of this year's race but suddenly, too, it casts a shadow on his future as Florida's Senator. If his supporters turn out, he could win and look like a hero going forward; if they don't turn out, he loses and looks shaky until he takes his next election. (If Rubio's crowd goes for Cruz. then Rubio might ought to sell his house) Trump only needs a simple majority to take all the delegates and if so Rubio is out. I don't think Trump wins as big as he's leading right now, but I think he wins big enough to comfortably cast off Rubio.
Kasich has a much firmer lead in Ohio, largely because I think he has a better control over his home than Rubio has over his and also because I think there is a more salient anti-Trump audience. So Kasich wins Ohio but that doesn't feel like enough to really give him a boost across the country...unless Rubio gets out of the way leaving Kasich to be the anti-Trump and the anti-Cruz simultaneously. I think Cruz comes in 2nd, Trump 3rd.
I think Trump easily takes North Carolina and Missouri, squeaks by in Illinois and Florida and comes in a distant third in Ohio. I'll say Rubio finishes a tight 2nd in Florida and a distant 3rd in Missouri and Illinois. I'll say Cruz finishes 2nd in North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio and 3rd in Florida and Ohio. Kaisch will win Ohio, finishes a tight 3rd in Illinois. Trump is the big winner, Cruz is the clear runner-up, Rubio goes home and Kasich hangs around and tries to look like the adult in the room for a few more weeks.
On Tuesday there will be primary elections in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri. Sanders is so far behind in delegate count that coming close in any given election isn't nearly good enough and with the Republican side winnowing down, it feels to me like he's outlived his purpose of giving Hillary a challenge. Hillary isn't the most lovable liberal candidate but she is the most politically savvy and I am confident her support is well positioned and well supported across the nation. Even if Sanders hangs around and wins every once in a while, he's still too far behind to catch up.
I'll take Hillary in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, I'll take Sanders in Missouri, and a dead heat in Illinois (which still vastly favors Hillary). Hillary piles on to her lead on delegates and super delegates. I guess Sanders makes it through the next 6 primaries later on this month, there's no reason for him to quit; if he's popular enough to keep getting money out of people then he may as well keep going. But his chances of winning are virtually zero.
Republicans
This is the (next) big day for the Republicans eager to see a brokered convention. If Rubio takes Florida, Kasich takes Ohio, and someone can block Trump in Illinois, then the race continues; if Trump wins those states, I'd say the game is over, not much opportunity left for the others. A mix results in more of the same.
The last few weeks were about the emergence of Cruz (or the lack of emergence of Rubio). I thought after South Carolina, with the exit of Jeb Bush, that Rubio would get a chance to shine; but if I was paying better attention, I would've realized that the last round of states favor Cruz, who made the most of them. The fact that the 'establishment' prefers Rubio to Cruz or Trump is only making it harder for Rubio but he scored well in the last coupla contests in DC and Wyoming. If Rubio wins Florida, he's got a chance to get something going; but if he doesn't, he's got no hope left and will have to step aside to give Cruz a chance. Trump is still in the lead but not commandingly so, Cruz could still best him if this race gets all the California but probably only if Rubio and Kasich get out of the way. Likewise, Kasich must win Ohio to make any difference at all.
What will happen? The polls in Florida have Trump winning big but as we saw in Michigan, the polls can be wrong--waaaaay wrong!--in a year all about the insurgents. It comes down to north of Orlando (should be firm Trump supporters) and south of Orlando (Rubio's stomping ground) and whether the Rubio benefactors want to keep his career alive. If Rubio loses in Florida, he is certainly out of this year's race but suddenly, too, it casts a shadow on his future as Florida's Senator. If his supporters turn out, he could win and look like a hero going forward; if they don't turn out, he loses and looks shaky until he takes his next election. (If Rubio's crowd goes for Cruz. then Rubio might ought to sell his house) Trump only needs a simple majority to take all the delegates and if so Rubio is out. I don't think Trump wins as big as he's leading right now, but I think he wins big enough to comfortably cast off Rubio.
Kasich has a much firmer lead in Ohio, largely because I think he has a better control over his home than Rubio has over his and also because I think there is a more salient anti-Trump audience. So Kasich wins Ohio but that doesn't feel like enough to really give him a boost across the country...unless Rubio gets out of the way leaving Kasich to be the anti-Trump and the anti-Cruz simultaneously. I think Cruz comes in 2nd, Trump 3rd.
I think Trump easily takes North Carolina and Missouri, squeaks by in Illinois and Florida and comes in a distant third in Ohio. I'll say Rubio finishes a tight 2nd in Florida and a distant 3rd in Missouri and Illinois. I'll say Cruz finishes 2nd in North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio and 3rd in Florida and Ohio. Kaisch will win Ohio, finishes a tight 3rd in Illinois. Trump is the big winner, Cruz is the clear runner-up, Rubio goes home and Kasich hangs around and tries to look like the adult in the room for a few more weeks.
Monday, February 29, 2016
Super Tuesday
Alabama, Alaska (Republicans only), American Samoa (Democrats only), Arkansas, Colorado (Democrats only), Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia will go the polls on Tuesday and this should be the knockout blow for those last few hanging-around candidates.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton easily won South Carolina and Nevada and looks to roll through Super Tuesday, after which Bernie Sanders will have nowhere left to go but home. Particularly in the southern states I expect Clinton to have an established base eager to show out for her, so is there enough of an established anti-Hillary base that Sanders can summon? I doubt it. Not liking Hillary is not the same as supporting Sanders. I suspect the support that Sanders has received so far is largely from folks that feel like they can always have Hillary, so they can ride Sanders until he falters and then shuffle over to the Hillary side. Sanders will take Vermont and possibly Massachusetts and maybe can shake out a last chunk of voters who feel Hillary isn't as Sanders-ish as they'd like. I expect Hillary to crush Sanders in most of the other states and that'll be the last we see of Sanders (except to stump for Clinton). (Weird prediction: I've got the strange feeling that Hillary will win in November and then serve only one term. I dunno why, just a feeling that the Dems will be back in Iowa in 2020, while Hillary is still in the White House)
Republicans
The Republican Party has been out of whack since 2000: the next guy in line at that time was John McCain but George W. Bush showed up with a famous name and a pile of money and he shoved his way to the top of the ladder; then as his de facto protege he chose Dick Cheney, a man too old to follow Bush, meaning that Bush upset the order and then guaranteed that the order would stay upset even after he left; McCain was too old to win by the time it was his turn to run; Republicans will some day look back on Mitt Romney and see the most perfect Republican ever built and think, 'Why didn't we vote for--oh, right, he's Mormon.' Bush could've let McCain have 2000 (where I think he would've lost to Al Gore) and then run in 2004 (where he may well have defeated Gore in the wake of 9/11) and then faced off with Hillary Clinton in 2008 (toss up depending on what the Middle East and economy would've been like at that time); then Mitt Romney would've had an incumbent support that may have looked past his Mormonism. But none of that happened and now the Republican Party is in total disarray. Throw in the death of Justice Scalia, a Senate built totally to obstruct, and the inability of governors like Scott Walker, John Kasich and Chris Christie to gain any traction (and whatever happened to Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal and Mitch Daniels?), and the Party is looking pretty bleak.
But, wait. Given that the Supreme Court has been controlled by Republicans since 1972 and has never overturned Roe v Wade, does it really matter that Scalia has passed? (If Hillary wins and a Democrat is added to the Court, look for Sotomayor to track to the middle and become the new Kennedy; just a theory) Given that the Republican House is now run by golden boy Paul Ryan and the Senate has Marco Rubio and Rand Paul as the potential emerging stars, Congress will still be firmly controlled by the Republicans through the next administration (I think). Throw in that this 2016 race will purge the party of Donald Trump, the Bush family name and Ted Cruz, I think the future is actually bright for the Republicans. Politics is always darkest before dawn: the party in power tends to fumble the ball right quick, power is elusive and the second place party is never too far from a power grab.
So what happens on Super Tuesday? I think Rubio will generally do better than Cruz, Kasich will have to drop out (and throw his support to Rubio), Ben Carson will go back to doing whatever it is Ben Carson does (and not endorse anyone). And I guess Trump will largely dominate. I have continually miscalculated the potential of Donald Trump because I just don't see where his support is coming from--and I still don't after all these months! The Tea Party crowd hates nothing more in this world than ObamaCare, which Trump supports; the 'establishment' doesn't want a billionaire interloper who isn't even a Republican; the middle class likes Trump's candor but they don't like what he says; the Christian crowd would rather see just about anyone else but Trump; the business crowd might not hate Trump but its hard to imagine they really like him; the intellectuals know that Trump has no grasp of procedure or the judiciary or foreign affairs or even the economy (dude, listen to Trump talk business...for a billionaire Wharton grad, he doesn't show any expertise of economic affairs). So who is it that likes this guy? I'm still not seeing it. And I can't help thinking that going head-to-head with Hillary Clinton will show her to be vastly more qualified for the job in a way that the electorate will have to acknowledge. I know there's a bandwagon mentality when a guy starts winning but, honestly, who is it that's voting for Trump?
After Trump with Cruz as his VP loses to Hillary, then Rubio and Ryan become the stars in Congress and lead the charge on Iowa in 2020, by which time Jeb Bush will be gone, Christie will be gone, Huckabee will be long gone, Trump will just be a vague nightmare memory, and Cruz will be nothing more than the next Santorum struggling to get 2% defending his title. And the Republican Party will be back to normal built on the still youthful Marco Rubio (not as white as Mitt Romney but much less Mormon) with Rand Paul, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker looking like wily veterans. Meanwhile the Democrats will be looking to aging Hillary Clinton and way past his prime Joe Biden and whatever new guy gets belched up in the next 3-4 years. Look for the Republicans to be strong again in 2020 and it could be a while before the Democrats have another worthwhile leader.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton easily won South Carolina and Nevada and looks to roll through Super Tuesday, after which Bernie Sanders will have nowhere left to go but home. Particularly in the southern states I expect Clinton to have an established base eager to show out for her, so is there enough of an established anti-Hillary base that Sanders can summon? I doubt it. Not liking Hillary is not the same as supporting Sanders. I suspect the support that Sanders has received so far is largely from folks that feel like they can always have Hillary, so they can ride Sanders until he falters and then shuffle over to the Hillary side. Sanders will take Vermont and possibly Massachusetts and maybe can shake out a last chunk of voters who feel Hillary isn't as Sanders-ish as they'd like. I expect Hillary to crush Sanders in most of the other states and that'll be the last we see of Sanders (except to stump for Clinton). (Weird prediction: I've got the strange feeling that Hillary will win in November and then serve only one term. I dunno why, just a feeling that the Dems will be back in Iowa in 2020, while Hillary is still in the White House)
Republicans
The Republican Party has been out of whack since 2000: the next guy in line at that time was John McCain but George W. Bush showed up with a famous name and a pile of money and he shoved his way to the top of the ladder; then as his de facto protege he chose Dick Cheney, a man too old to follow Bush, meaning that Bush upset the order and then guaranteed that the order would stay upset even after he left; McCain was too old to win by the time it was his turn to run; Republicans will some day look back on Mitt Romney and see the most perfect Republican ever built and think, 'Why didn't we vote for--oh, right, he's Mormon.' Bush could've let McCain have 2000 (where I think he would've lost to Al Gore) and then run in 2004 (where he may well have defeated Gore in the wake of 9/11) and then faced off with Hillary Clinton in 2008 (toss up depending on what the Middle East and economy would've been like at that time); then Mitt Romney would've had an incumbent support that may have looked past his Mormonism. But none of that happened and now the Republican Party is in total disarray. Throw in the death of Justice Scalia, a Senate built totally to obstruct, and the inability of governors like Scott Walker, John Kasich and Chris Christie to gain any traction (and whatever happened to Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal and Mitch Daniels?), and the Party is looking pretty bleak.
But, wait. Given that the Supreme Court has been controlled by Republicans since 1972 and has never overturned Roe v Wade, does it really matter that Scalia has passed? (If Hillary wins and a Democrat is added to the Court, look for Sotomayor to track to the middle and become the new Kennedy; just a theory) Given that the Republican House is now run by golden boy Paul Ryan and the Senate has Marco Rubio and Rand Paul as the potential emerging stars, Congress will still be firmly controlled by the Republicans through the next administration (I think). Throw in that this 2016 race will purge the party of Donald Trump, the Bush family name and Ted Cruz, I think the future is actually bright for the Republicans. Politics is always darkest before dawn: the party in power tends to fumble the ball right quick, power is elusive and the second place party is never too far from a power grab.
So what happens on Super Tuesday? I think Rubio will generally do better than Cruz, Kasich will have to drop out (and throw his support to Rubio), Ben Carson will go back to doing whatever it is Ben Carson does (and not endorse anyone). And I guess Trump will largely dominate. I have continually miscalculated the potential of Donald Trump because I just don't see where his support is coming from--and I still don't after all these months! The Tea Party crowd hates nothing more in this world than ObamaCare, which Trump supports; the 'establishment' doesn't want a billionaire interloper who isn't even a Republican; the middle class likes Trump's candor but they don't like what he says; the Christian crowd would rather see just about anyone else but Trump; the business crowd might not hate Trump but its hard to imagine they really like him; the intellectuals know that Trump has no grasp of procedure or the judiciary or foreign affairs or even the economy (dude, listen to Trump talk business...for a billionaire Wharton grad, he doesn't show any expertise of economic affairs). So who is it that likes this guy? I'm still not seeing it. And I can't help thinking that going head-to-head with Hillary Clinton will show her to be vastly more qualified for the job in a way that the electorate will have to acknowledge. I know there's a bandwagon mentality when a guy starts winning but, honestly, who is it that's voting for Trump?
After Trump with Cruz as his VP loses to Hillary, then Rubio and Ryan become the stars in Congress and lead the charge on Iowa in 2020, by which time Jeb Bush will be gone, Christie will be gone, Huckabee will be long gone, Trump will just be a vague nightmare memory, and Cruz will be nothing more than the next Santorum struggling to get 2% defending his title. And the Republican Party will be back to normal built on the still youthful Marco Rubio (not as white as Mitt Romney but much less Mormon) with Rand Paul, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker looking like wily veterans. Meanwhile the Democrats will be looking to aging Hillary Clinton and way past his prime Joe Biden and whatever new guy gets belched up in the next 3-4 years. Look for the Republicans to be strong again in 2020 and it could be a while before the Democrats have another worthwhile leader.
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