Super Bowl Prediction

Okay, this is it. Last game. Sunday is just for spiritual reflection for the next 8 months...*sigh*

My initial thought, two weeks ago when this matchup was set, was that the Panthers have too much offense for the weak Bronco attack to keep up and this would probably be a blowout, definitely by the end of the 3rd quarter. But I'm having second thoughts. I can't help thinking that all the intangibles favor the Broncos and not the Panthers.

The Panthers have scored points at will this season and dominated teams at home. But the Broncos have the #1 defense and this is definitely not a home game. Also, while I don't expect the young-ish Panthers to be overwhelmed by the Super Bowl (indeed, I expect them to come out in full swagger), everything about this particular game will be different, there is no comfort level even if you're confident. The Panthers played in the 2nd worst division in the league this year and their non-conference opponents were the from the 1st worst division; their AFC games were the Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Redskins, not bad but not great. So while they dominated, they didn't face a defense as good as the Broncos. And as good as their offense was, it was actually pretty streaky and quite capable of disappearing for long stretches of time.

The Broncos got gobsmacked by the Seahawks just two years ago and I suspect that's what some are expecting again tonight: Panthers laying the wood to poor hapless Peyton and winning 42-10. But that Seahawk defense was one of the best I've ever seen, whereas this Panther D, nice as it is, will be the 2nd best defense in this game. So that scenario doesn't play. Also the scenario of the Panther offense just bumrushing the end zone again and again...I'm not seeing it. The Broncos just worked Tom Brady and the Pats offensive attack and though Cam is more dynamic than Brady, the rest of the Panther offense isn't that much better than the Pats.

Look, Cam thoroughly desvered the MVP. I thought he was was the easy choice over Palmer, Brady and Rodgers. (A little surprised he also won Offensive Player of the Year--who was the last guy to win them both?) But that goes to underscore how NOT great the rest of the Panther offense it. They're all solid, don't get me wrong, but there aren't any unstoppable forces over there with Cam, no scary playmakers that'll go above and beyond. The Panther offense this year was all about Cam making it work for everybody else. The Bronco D really only has to take out one QB and they've shown they can do that. They just beat Brady and Roethlisberger, think they can't beat the guy that's never been to a Super Bowl before?

So am I saying the Broncos are gonna win? I dunno. The conundrum at the heart of this game is Peyton Manning. If Peyton is good, which he has not been all year long, then I would think the Broncos could win. But even in that there's a catch: classic badass Peyton Manning always kinda sucked in the big games! So even if old time Peyton appears, that might not be worth anything. I can't help thinking the Broncos are better with Brock Osweiler but he's not ready to win a Super Bowl and he's not the guy they're going with. This game...who would've think it...is all about Peyton Manning.

Which is why I think Cam Newton pulls it out. Right here, right now, Cam is the better player, the better playmaker and the better leader. (Cam is Namath, Peyton is Unitas)

I think both teams score on their opening drives and then its a slog after that. Over time I think the Panthers will score more points than the Broncos but it won't be easy and I don't see this game being a blowout. I'll say 7-7 after the 1st, Panthers up 13-10 at halftime, Panthers up 20-13 after the 3rd, Panthers win 26-23 after a furious 4th quarter (which is all anyone really wants). I think the Panthers lead pretty much the whole way but the Broncos remain in striking distance right to the end. Cam wins MVP.