Iowa Caucus Results

Democrats

Clinton 49.9%
Sanders 49.6%

On the one hand a draw in Iowa is rather embarrassing for Hillary; on the other, this (and New Hampshire) are likely to be Sanders' most favorable states so a strong showing shouldn't be a shock. The Sanders camp is pleased with a draw--they never expected to be near Hillary, I reckon. But is this really a worthwhile result? Can he parlay being almost as good as Hillary in Iowa and New Hampshire into something meaningful across the rest of the country? I don't know if Sanders has the money or the infrastructure to make a deep run but I know Hillary does. I don't know if Sanders will make it to Super Tuesday but I know Hillary will. Sanders has to play this up for all its worth...because its only worth what he can convince people to believe. I think this only makes Hillary stronger, it gives her something to do until the Republicans figure out their end, it puts her in touch with the areas of the electorate she might've otherwise ignored, it forces her to dive into subjects she might yet be prepared for. I can't help thinking that a challenge is a blessing in disguise for Hillary. (Shame about old...what was his name? O'malley?)


Republicans

Cruz 27.7%
I said 27% and a 1st place finish, I did all right with that one. For the last coupla months Cruz's play has been to bang on Trump as a means of establishing himself and simultaneously establishing Trump so the two could pair up and ditch the rest of the phony (re: real) Republicans. But once Cruz surpasses Trump, he accidentally weakens them both: by aiming at Trump, Cruz could ignore the rest of the field and pretend to be above them, sequestering all the media buzz with those two at the top and leaving everyone else out. But that only works if Trump is #1 and Cruz #2. If Trump isn't #1 then he has no support at all and if Cruz is more than #2 the voters will start to get shaky. Now the door is open for Rubio to move past both of them and if Cruz can't stand alone then his political career is pretty much finished (he is a uniquely unpopular guy in the real world of politics). I'm not so sure the hardcore New Hampshire right wingers will take to Cruz the way Iowans did.

Trump 24.3%
I said 22% and a 3rd place finish, I wasn't too far off. Trump had the luxury of being the most famous guy in Iowa for about 6 months and that means something. Man, Iowa doesn't get to see Lebron or Aaron Rodgers, they don't get NASCAR races or a Jay Z/Beyonce tour. Even though they pride themselves on being politically level-headed, those folks are starved for entertainment and Trump gave them a buzz they don't normally get. Then the vote happened and the show closed after opening night. Can Trump recover in New Hampshire? I don't see it. I went to school with a woman from Nashua, NH and she assured me she'd never vote for anyone if she didn't shake his/her hand. Think about that: 'Sure, I've admired Hillary for decades, followed her career with pride, seen her speak numerous times but I never met her face to face, so....' Yeah, dude, that's how it works in New Hampshire! Is Trump gonna work that hard to woo New Hampshire and will NH be impressed by him? I think 'no' and 'no'. By the time Trump gets to the South, his momentum will be gone, he'll be an emperor with no clothes, the voters will have turned on him and the show will be shut down for good. But Trump gets to take his show to CNN or Bloomberg and preen himself as a guy that's actually involved, a guy whose opinion matters. That's as good as it gets for Trump, he can't do anything where he's not in control of everything. As for New Hampshire, I say he flails badly.

Rubio 23.1%
I had Rubio with 22%, sneaking ahead of Trump for 2nd place, I was close. Rubio is the guy that is supposed to be the Republican nominee but the Trump circus kept him out of the Iowa spotlight for months and Cruz was able to sneak past him. But Rubio still handily dispatched Bush, Christie, Paul and Kasich and that was the competition he was expecting. Iowa is a nice prize but not as necessary as politic-types would have you believe. Rubio's best bet at this point is to simply ignore Trump and direct all attention to Cruz, this will allow him to garner the support of the Bush, Christie and Kasich camps, which consolidates his power within the party. I think Rubio and Cruz finish neck and neck in New Hampshire.

Carson 9.3%
I said 9%, kinda nailed it. Carson seems like a nice guy, he's got something sorta like a vision of the world and I think his supporters really believe in him. But he's a normal citizen, not a political lifer, and the grinding scrutiny of the spotlight is withering him. Can he be a VP? I dunno, he's unique enough that he might not really bring anything to a ticket with Cruz or Rubio. He's got respect within the ranks so perhaps he can garner a cabinet post but where does he fit in? He can't get any of the real sexy spots (Defense, State, Treasury, AG), Veterans Affairs tends to go military, its not like he has Labor chops. That leaves Transportation or Interior and those are either places to bid time or to go to die, neither of which suits what he's got going on. I dunno, maybe he can run for Congress in 2018 or maybe he can be the in-house Republican on MSNBC. I can't see him venturing any further than New Hampshire into the primary season.

Paul 4.5%
I had Paul at 5% just ahead of Bush, I was pretty close. Paul has dropped out, I'm surprised he hung around Iowa as long as he did, hanging around til voting day only showed how little support he actually has. Not a career killer or anything, he can come back in 4 years and start all over. But not the boost he was seeking and certainly not enough to get him toe to toe with Hillary, which is all he's ever wanted. He's a Senator (one of my senators, in point of fact), which gives him time to mature and accrue power (being a Senator is death for a Democrat, what with piling up all that history, but for a Republican it's a career path). Trump stole his radical thunder and gave room to Cruz and Carson which pretty much doomed Paul. Perhaps by 2020 he'll be weird enough to be the weird guy in Iowa.

Bush 2.8%
Bush surely would've liked to do better in Iowa but I think he was always focusing on New Hampshire. The long (looooooooong) run up to Iowa this year allowed Trump to suck the oxygen out of the room, choking Bush (and Fiorina and Christie). But New Hampshire will be a sprint and Bush is probably still as well positioned there as anyone. Bush has no other political prospects than winning the full nomination (nobody wants Jeb Bush as their VP) and he should have the money and infrastructure to keep a race going. So until he just loses all interest in being out there, I expect Bush to make it to Florida, even if he gets trounced in New Hampshire. I expect Bush to show much better in NH, probably chipping into Ben Carson's support. And the folks that aren't sure about Rubio or might have been interested in Paul should fall to Bush.

Fiorina 1.9%
I had Fiorina at 2%, in keeping with the final Des Moines Register poll, and that proved accurate. Fiorina got bumped from the debate, which is a real blow to her campaign. I can understand Bush and Christie getting the invite over Fiorina but why Kasich? What's that dude for anyone lately? Its a shame because raising her profile is all she wants out of her time in New Hampshire and she's probably destined to fail on that. With a debate appearance she can maybe score a cabinet post or offer an interesting female option for a Rubio ticket, but without she's just not visible enough. I can't see her doing much better than in Iowa, where she had a much better chance to succeed.

Kasich 1.9%
I thought Kasich would do better in Iowa, I had him at 3% ahead of Fiorina and he didn't quite match her. So why does the spot in the New Hampshire debate and Fiorina doesn't? I don't see it. Kasich is reasonably thought of as a non-Bush, non-Cruz, non-Trump (and isn't Rand Paul either) that has more experience than Ben Carson. That's gotta be worth something, right? Yeah, I say its a great way to be Transportation Secretary! I would've thought he was better positioned in Iowa than in New Hampshire and he came in 8th, dude. I guess I have to assume he'll finish higher than Fiorina but I'm not sure why.

Huckabee 1.8%
Huckabee did a little better than the 1% I thought he'd get. But it wasn't enough to get him even to New Hampshire. Oh well, he'll just have to write Coulter-ish books for the rest of his life and remind people that he was almost famous for a while.

Christie 1.8%
Christie didn't get to 4% like I thought he would but he was never really built for the midwest. Christie's more of an East Coast guy and I expect him to get a little bump (not unlike Bush) heading into New Hampshire. I don't see him as a VP though if he shows well in New Hampshire and makes it into a few more debates, maybe he's in line for one of the sexy cabinet gigs. There's room enough for Christie to have a nice showing in NH.

Santorum 1.0%
He did poorly as I hoped he would. Good riddance, Santorum, you were my least favorite.

Gilmore 0% (12 votes)
I confess that I don't pay much attention to politics, indeed I've mostly ignored the Iowa nonsense for what seems like years now. But, man, I never heard of Jim Gilmore until his name appeared at the very bottom of the list of candidates. But I guess 12 people in Iowa liked him. If he was a quarterback that might be enough. I know nothing about the guy but I can't rule him out for a non-sexy cabinet post or a return to Iowa in 2020.