2023-24 NBA Playoffs (4 games in)

East

Heat 1-3 Celtics

After taking the night off in Game Two, the Celtics are back on track and making it clear that they are vastly more talented than the Heat. Porzingis left Game Four, will it become a problem? (Well, not for this series, but the Celtics need KP to reach their peak) Even without Porzingis, this should be over in five. 

Sixers 1-3 Knicks

The Sixers are such an inconsistent squad, it's hard to see how they have any kind of shot of winning 3 straight. Buddy Hield is completely out of the rotation, (oh--I forgot Robert Covington was even on the Sixers!), Tobias Harris is just inert, Joel Embiid is occasionally feisty and brilliant but more often just hobbled and ineffective, Kyle Lowry is doing yeoman's work (but not much more than that) and this team is pretty much just Tyrese Maxey by himself. The Knicks are rounding into shape (and definitely keeping an eye on that Porzinigis injury), I think this will be over in Game Five. 

Pacers 3-1 Bucks

If you needed any reminder of how awesome Giannis is just remember that if he were in the lineup, the Bucks would be a for-real contender in the East but without him, the Bucks kinda stink. There is no depth, no defense, no reliable scoring outside of Middleton--good god, they've even had to break the emergency glass on Danilo Galinari, a move that does not inspire confidence. Unless Damian Lillard returns, the Bucks have zero shot at winning this series (and even if he does return, they have almost zero shot in this series). The Pacers aren't really doing anything amazing, the Bucks are just that bad. I give the Bucks a puncher's chance in Game Five, but this should be wrapped in six. 

Magic 2-2 Cavs

This one is going seven games and I like the home team to win all 7. In the playoffs, the supporting cast shines in home games (and disappears on the road) and both of these teams need the full weight of their depth to get ahead, so I'm favoring the home teams and sticking with the Cavs in 7.

West

Pelicans 0-4 Thunder

The Pelicans shot their wad in Game One, the Thunder survived and then mushed the Pels like a bug for the next three games. If the Pelicans had Zion, this would've been a bit more of a challenge but without him, the Thunder rather easily outscored them. Now the Thunder get a break while the Mavs and Clippers wear each other out (I think Thunder fans can go ahead and buy their Conference Final tickets).

Lakers 1-4 Nuggets

Yeah, I'm not shocked the Lakers were able to hold on to Game Four, the Nuggets had a pretty terrible shooting night--and still almost came back to win it. And, yeah, I'm not shocked that in two of the four wins the Nuggets needed the final possession  to seal the victory. The Lakers played the Nuggets close last year and played them close again this year. But the Nuggets are too good, man, and though the length of the Lakers was problematic for them, their scoring and overall offensive efficiency is just too much for the Lakers to hang with. That said, the Wolves are going to be a problem for the Nuggets....

Suns 0-4 Wolves

The Suns swept the Wolves in the regular season, including two wins in the last coupla weeks and this felt like it was going to be a dog fight of a series. But....nah, not so much. The Suns are basically just Booker and Durant (just like last year) and without Grayson Allen (yeah, the Suns were toast without Grayson Allen?!??), there just wasn't enough scoring to hang with the Wolves. The Wolves are frankly a fucked-up Frankenstein monster squad, but when they pull it together, they are the only team that can truly hang with the Nuggets and Celtics. They've got long arms, a deep bench, and though the scoring sometimes disappears for no reason, they generally have a good offense, too. They were gonna have to beat the Nuggets at some point, now is the time. 

Mavs 2-2 Clippers

Neither of these teams are good enough to win, they only win when the other team just doesn't show up. The Mavs were utterly useless in Game One, the Clippers utterly useless in Game Three. The Clippers should've won Game Two but fumbled it away, the Clippers had a massive lead early in Game Four and almost gave that away. It's like both of these teams are just waiting to lose and hoping the other team loses first. I still have this going 7 games but increasingly I think the winner will likely get smoked by OKC--a team that knows who they are and will have an extra 5 days or so to prepare for the next round. 

2024 Champions League (Quarterfinals (2nd Leg))

Borussia Dortmund 4-2 (agg 5-4) Atletico Madrid

Great game! Thought Atletico came out flat, Dortmund pretty well dominated the 1st half, up 2-0 at halftime. Then Atletico came alive, netted two quick goals to steal back the overall lead and seemed like they were going to ride out the listless Dortmund side. Then it was Dortmund's turn to get hot and they netted two late goals to steal the victory. Tons of action, lots of sloppiness in the goalie boxes, chippy fouls, pissed off ref and a home crowd going wild by the end. Fun ride of a game, not sure how much further Dortmund can go, but they were the better side overall here. There's been a lot of scoring so far this year, if Dortmund can keep it going, they can hang with anyone. 

Barcelona 1-3 (agg 3-4) Paris St. Germaine

Barca got the early goal, felt like they were on their way, but PSG's dominance in the 2nd half was much too much for Barca to hang with. Barca just never got anything going after that early goal (Lewandowski is going to waste in Barcelona). PSG feels like the best team left to me. 

Bayern Munich 1-0 (agg 3-2) Arsenal

Never felt like either team controlled the attack, each team had moments but for the most part the defenses stood up strong. One moment of brilliance (Guerrero searching swing pass into the box, Kimmich steps into the empty space for the perfect header) and that was about it. Not a boring match but neither side exhibited anything like dominance. So does Bayern have their shit together? Well, most teams would be happy to be in the Champions League semifinal, but this squad still feels shell shocked from their early season woes. 

Manchester City 1-1 (agg 3-4 (PKs)) Real Madrid

Feel like I gotta start out by saying it felt to me like Man City was the best team in this year's tourney.  Yeah "was" as in, they're no longer around. The opening of the game was some serious chess match stuff where it felt like Man City wanted to suck Real into pressing on defense, but Real held their shape and sagged to prevent any kind of deep penetration. Real was able to create the slightest ripple in Man City's back line and scored an early goal. But Man City wasn't going away, so not a shock that they were able to tie it up and send this on in to penalty kicks. Shame to lose Man City (the Stefon Edberg of soccer), but Real Madrid is rounding into shape, gonna be a tough out going forward.

Semifinal

I gotta go with Real Madrid over Bayern and PSG over Dortmund. The German sides have done well to get here, but I think this is where it ends for both of them.

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (2 games in)

East

1: Heat 94-114 Celtics

2: Heat 111-101 Celtics

Game One....(yawn)....was over before I turned it on, the score only looks close because the Celtics completely stopped playing with, like, 10 mins left. Game Two was maybe the most shocking result of the season. But let's dig into the numbers: the Heat had their best shooting game of the entire season while for the Celtics, Porzingis totally sucked and Payton Pritchard in 20 minutes managed to do...absolutely nothing. And while actually Tatum and Brown were both pretty good in Game Two, the rest of the squad just couldn't get buckets and that's not like this year's Celtics. So was Game Two a fluke or are the Celtics ready to fold? Yeah....I'm going with "fluke". Tyler Herro hadn't had a good shooting night in (seems like) months and as much as I love Bam Adebayo, I think his dominance of Porzingis was likely just a good night that won't be repeated. I had Celtics in 5, which I figured was too much after Game One, but after Game Two I'd say the Celtics are back on the gentleman's sweep path because I fully expect them  to outplay the Heat in the next three games. 

1: Sixers 104-111 Knicks

2: Sixers 101-104 Knicks

Game One was a hard fought contest but the Knicks were the better team. Game Two was hard fought, too, and though history may well record that the Knicks got lucky down the stretch, I'd say it isn't that simple. Frankly the Knicks should've won and had the game in hand in the 4th quarter, until the Sixers rode a nice stretch to a lead in the final minute, which the Knicks overcame by making the hustle plays (hat tip to Josh Hart) and making the big shots (hat tip to Donte DiVincenzo). So even though MVP candidate Jalen Brunson looks completely fustigated by Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers just don't have enough to compete. The overly maligned Tobias Harris has been awful, the once-promising Buddy Hield just doesn't look like he wants to play, Nicolaus Batum already had an out-of-body game in the play-in (are you really expecting him to have another one of those this year?) and Joel Embiid is fighting too many injuries to be reliable (though he's clearly working his ass off). Maxey has been great for the Sixers but he's pretty much the only one and I don't see how he can do it all himself. This series will still produce tough contests but I like the Knicks to take one of the next two games and have a good shot at wrapping this up in 5 games. 

1: Pacers 94-109 Bucks

2: Pacers 125-108 Bucks

Okay, it is officially panic time in Milwaukee. The Bucks have been lackluster all year (hmmmm, well, really only since they mutinied against Coach Griffin to bring in Coach Doc) and with Giannis nursing a calf injury (I thought that was strictly a FIFA injury), the Bucks had better get their shit together pronto if they expect to get past Indy. That said, the Bucks looked pretty dominant in Game One and then utterly incapable in Game Two, so which is it? For the Pacers, really only Pascal Siakim is balling (he's killing the Bucks), but so far they're seemingly steady enough to outlast the schizo Bucks. If the Bucks can last til Game Seven, then hopefully Giannis can come back and make a difference--that's their only hope. I think the listing Bucks can stay even with the Pacers for a while, though they better get their offense in tune if they're going to outscore Siakim, so I will stick with the Bucks in 7 for now (but, man.....they gotta stretch this series to even have a prayer). 

1: Magic 83-97 Cavs

2: Magic 86-96 Cavs

Felt like two fairly evenly matched teams going into the series but the Cavs are clearly just a more reliable offense. The Magic are nice but just don't have the firepower to keep up. Again, I expect the Cavs to take one of the next two games and wrap this up in 5. 

West

1: Pelicans 92-94 Thunder

2: Pelicans 92-124 Thunder

The Pelicans kinda scared the Thunder in Game One but the Thunder made the plays late to steal the W. In Game Two, the Thunder moved the ball well, got buckets and rather easily outpaced the Pelicans. I think the Pelicans still present some matchup problems (Jonas "FIBA" Valenciunas!) and should steal a game or two, but they don't have the scoring depth (w/out Zion) to hang for long. The Thunder are the better team and should finish this in 5 (or maybe 6) games. 

1: Lakers 103-114 Nuggets

2: Lakers 99-101 Nuggets

Oh, man, if the Lakers couldn't pull out Game Two, then I just don't see how they win at all. The Lakers were pretty great for about three quarters, but the Nuggets took over in the 4th and Jamal Murray finished the easy-as-you-please buzzer beater to snatch the commanding lead. So far, Anthony Davis has played pretty great, Lebron started great in the first game and finished great in the second, and the rest of the supporting cast has been pretty good (Hachimura not so much, D'Angelo Russell kinda sucked in Game One but was kinda great in Game Two), but it just doesn't matter. Jokic is so damn good and the rest of the cast knows exactly what they're supposed to do and clearly the defending champs are gonna be a tough out. Feels like another sweep is coming, though I can see the Lakers stealing a home game, I guess (but I'd be kinda shocked if this goes more than five games). 

1: Suns 95-120 Wolves

2: Suns 93-105 Wolves

The Sun have no chance. Their only hope was to simply outscore the neophyte Wolves but it ain't happening. The Wolves defense is too much and the offense is good enough to get past the Suns (even if Anthony Edwards struggles as he has so far). If the Suns offense was as good as they think it is, they'd be tough to beat but it isn't and the D isn't noteworthy at all. This looked to me like the classic home-team-wins-all-games kinda series--and it still could be--but I don't see it any more. The Suns swept the Wolves in the regular season but that feels like a rope-a-dope now, the Suns are struggling to even be in these games now. The Wolves will take one of these next two games in Phoenix and finish it in 5. 

1: Mavs 97-109 Clippers

2: Mavs 96-93 Clippers

The Mavs simply did not show up in Game One but turned it around nicely in Game Two (especially in the 2nd half). I can't help thinking that the Clippers really are the better team but they're sloppy and Kawhi isn't quite ready to get wins. This should go 7 games, which gives Kawhi more time to play himself into shape. Peak Clippers is better than peak Mavs but the Mavs feel more likely to get closer to their peak than the Clippers; but if the Clippers can keep the series alive, then I think they have the better chance of finding the magic at the bottom of their bag. I initially had the Mavs in 7 but I think I like the Clippers to catch up and over take the Mavs by Game Seven (but if the Clippers don't win at least one of the next two games, this might be done a lot quicker). 

2023-24 NBA (End of season awards)

MVP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Gotta do it, man, he's just been so great this year leading the youngest team to ever finish 1st in the West. Head-to-head with Jokic, their numbers are comparable; Jokic kills Shai on Rebounds but Shai has more FTA and a better asst:to and, again, he finished first in the West, so....Shai had a great year, now time to do it in the post-season.

Runners-up: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Jalen Brunson (Knicks)

Rookie of the Year

Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)

Wemby led all rookies in FG, FGA, FT, FTA, offensive and defensive and total rebounds, steals, blocks (led the league--BY A MILE!), and points (also Turnovers, though 3rd in Assists). If Wemby never got any better than this, he'd still be in all-star contention every year but this is just the start for this guy. I thought that he would put up nice stats (he did better than that) on a shitty team (well, yeah) and he'd probably get shut down by season's end (nah, he did this in the next to last game of the season--a game the Nuggets actually needed to win!) and that we'd all look back and see that Holmgren was contributing as a rookie to a really good team (#1 in the West) and ultimately that would be more impressive to voters. Hey, man, don't wanna knock Chet--he was great--but Wemby did it all and looked better doing it. To me, ROY is a forward-looking award, namely who has the brightest future and if you want to argue that Chet contributing right away is better than putting up stats on a team not even trying to win, well, okay, that is a worthwhile data point in Chet's favor. But that's the only one. This is Wemby's league now, doubt that at your peril! Who else in the NBA does this?

Runner-ups: Chet Holmgren (Thunder), Brandon Miller (Hornets) (the top 3 is clear, the next 8-10 are purely subjective)

Defensive Player of the Year

Anthony Davis (Lakers)

Impressive season from Davis, wasn't sure he'd have another one, but he was healthier than he's been in his Laker tenure and played a ton of minutes. Only guy in the top 20 in Steals and Blocks (though still well behind rookie Wemby in Steals + Blocks) and 3rd overall in defensive rebounds. Throw in a positive assist:turnover rate and being top ten in free throw attempts and it is clear that he cleaned up on the defensive end and was still a load for his opponents on the offensive end. Davis had a great season and though I've predicted him to win DPOY for many years now, I believe this is the first time I ever thought he was truly worthy. 

Runner-ups: Victor Wembanyama (Spurs), Rudy Gobert (Wolves), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks)

6th Man

Bogdan Bogdanovich (Hawks)

I thought Bogie had the best all-around numbers. Word is the Hawks will be going through a tumultuous off-season (either Trae Young or Dejounte Murray has to go), I'll be curious to see if anyone makes a big balls offer for this guy. 

Runner-ups: Bobby Portis (Bucks), Naz Reid (Wolves), Keldon Johnson (Spurs), Malik Monk (Kings)

Coach of the Year

Mark Daigneault (Thunder)

The Thunder became the youngest team to ever finish #1 in the West and obviously Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the main driver of that. But I'd say Daigneault's handling of the rest of the rotation (I love all of those guys!) put them over the top. A great season for the Thunder...now they gotta do it in the playoffs.

Runner-ups: Joe Mazzulo (Celtics), Chris Finch (Wolves), Ty Lue (Clippers), Ime Udoka (Rockets)

Executive of the Year

Brad Stevens (Celtics)

Bringing in Porzingis and Jrue Holiday (and giving extensions to both) vaulted the Celtics to one of the most dominating regular season teams we've seen in a while. Letting go of Marcus Smart (remember when he used to play for the Celtics?), Malcolm Brogdon (last year's 6th Man) and Robert Williams (their only real rim-protector) was a gamble. But the moves paid off and the Celtics are the odds-on fave to win it all (indeed, if the Celtics don't win the East it would be a major disappointment).

Runner-ups: Mavs, Knicks, Rockets

1st Team

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Jalen Brunson (Knicks), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

2nd Team

Anthony Edwards (Wolves), DeMar DeRozan (Bulls), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), LeBron James (Lakers), Anthony Davis (Lakers)

3rd Team

Devin Booker (Suns), De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers), Kevin Durant (Suns), Domantas Sabonis (Kings)

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac and Playoff Predictions

(Got bored down the stretch looking at 10-day contracts, I should probably just stop doing that. Here's a few moves that I missed)

Coach

Jamahl Mosley (Magic) signed 4-year extension

The Magic are a young team on the rise, Mosley came in as a promising behind-the-scenes guy and he's grown nicely with this team. Seems like the right move, especially since this roster is pretty well set for the future, I'd guess one big signing this summer, maybe some luck in the draft, but for the most part this squad is ready to grow together, Coach Mosley looks to be the right guy.

Player Contract

Jrue Holiday (Celtics) signs 4yr/$135m extension

Holiday has definitely been a good addition to this Celtics squad and since they've already extended Jaylin Brown and Kristaps Porzingis, seems like this is their roster for the foreseeable future. This is a good team that still has room to get better, this is a good move. 

Retired

Nemanja Bjelica, Rajon Rondo

I always loved Bjelica, too bad the big fella didn't have a coupla more years in him. I remember watching him with the Wolves and he would always have these bruises and cuts on his face--he perpetually looked like he just came from a fist fight in a Wal-Mart parking lot! Loved his game, big guy that shot 3's and took no shit, love that he got a ring with the Warriors. So long, big guy, I was a big fan.

On the other hand, as a lifelong Kentucky Wildcats supporter, I can honestly say Rajon Rondo was my LEAST favorite Wildcat (and he's actually from Kentucky!). I knew he had the skills to be great, I was not surprised by his success, but his taciturn selfishness torpedoed teams as much as he helped them. I still say the trade that sent him to the Mavs was the WORST single trade of the last decade (and one that everyone forgets), considering that the Mavs had the best offense in the league before the trade (didn't need to be done at all). That said, Rondo was a really good player and at his best was a for-real badass (almost as good as his own sense of self). Will he be back as a coach? On the one hand, he was clearly intelligent at basketball; on the other hand, he didn't strike me as the most outgoing, mentor-oriented guy. 

 

Post-Season Predictions

Play-in

(East) I'll take Heat over Sixers, Bulls over Hawks; Sixers over Bulls

(West) I'll take Pelicans over Lakers; Kings over Warriors; Lakers over Kings

1st round

(East) Celtics over Sixers in 5; Heat over Knicks in 7; Bucks over Pacers in 7; Cavs over Magic in 7

(West) Thunder over Lakers in 7; Nuggets over Pelicans in 4; Wolves over Suns in 6; Mavs over Clippers in 6

2nd round

(East) Celtics over Cavs in 5; Bucks over Heat in 7

(West) Thunder over Mavs in 7; Nuggets over Wolves in 7

Conference finals

(East) Celtics over Bucks in 6

(West) Nuggets over Thunder in 6

This was my pre-season Final Four and I'm sticking with it. Yeah, OKC needs to show they can win in the playoffs and I think they will. But the Nuggets are still the team to beat in the West, the one truly ready-to-win team out there. The Celtics have easily been the best in the League this season and while the Bucks have been more shaky than solid this season, I still think they're better than everyone else (except the Celtics).

Finals

Nuggets over Celtics in 6

This was my pre-season pick and my all-star break pick, I don't see any reason to change. I think the Celtics can beat the Nuggets and it'll be a great series, but I'm sticking with the Jokic and co. until the explosion comes to defeat them. 

2024 Champions League (Quarterfinals (1st Leg))

Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Munich

Arsenal opened the scoring on a lovely touch finding a momentary hole in the back line. Bayern's equalizer came from a botched pass out of the Arsenal defense (dude, crappy pass, crappy reception, bad giveaway). Bayern took the lead before halftime on a PK (good call). Arsenal secured the draw with some lovely touches in the box leading to a wide open strike. Bayern put one more off the post but couldn't convert and Arsenal had non-call in the box go against them (uh, looked like a penalty to me). Thought Bayern was the better team, they've been shaky all season long and they did let Arsenal get to goal twice, but if Bayern keeps to this level, they can advance. Even up going back to Munich, I gotta go with Bayern to try and salvage what has been a disappointing season.

Real Madrid 3-3 Manchester City

First: all three of Manchester's goals were awesome! That 2nd minute free kick goal was just not something I saw coming (neither did Real). Real bounced back nicely netting two goals (both deflections, fwiw) within the next ten minutes to hold the halftime lead. Felt like Real was gonna hold up but Man City got two quick goals--both nasty rips from the top of the box--to steal the momentum. But Real was able to secure the draw with a bullet from Valverde. Both teams were active, both teams attacked (and yet both were sturdy in the back), lots of action throughout, I wanna say the winner of this match moves on but everyone scored goals, too, so this might be all offense down the stretch. I like Man City to get the W back at home. 

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Borussia Dortmund

Atletico opened the scoring in the 5th minute off a bad giveaway in the backfield led to the nifty finish (keeper was cooked).  Atletico extended the lead before halftime on another bad giveaway from the Dortmund defense. Felt like this might be a boat race, but I thought Dortmund pretty well dominated the 2nd half--hit the crossbar a million times!--but were only able to get back one goal (only a really nice spinning recovery rip). If Dortmund covers their mistakes, they've still got a shot at moving on, as Atletico is nice but hardly feels dominant. 

Paris SG 2-3 Barcelona

Barca opened the scoring before the half by capitalizing on chaos in front of the goal to stick an empty netter. Dembele got the equalizer right after halftime (with just a postage stamp of space!). PSG came right back and took the lead on a lovely finish as the overlapping run into the box found another postage stamp of space. From that point on, I thought Barca took over and were able to steal back to more goals: Rafinha with a perfect touch on an overhead cross into the box and a corner. Both teams are fairly evenly matched but Barcelona going back home with a lead is gonna be tough to beat. 

2024 Masters

(-11) Scottie Scheffler, (-7) Ludvig Aberg, (-4) Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa, Colin Morikawa

I watched a lot of Masters but by Saturday the field was pretty small and by Sunday it was pretty much just Scheffler watching Aberg, Homa, Morikawa and DeChambeau (-3 after 3 holes, +1 for the rest of the tourney) self-destruct around him and that was that. The only real tension was that Scheffler announced beforehand that if his any-minute-now-expecting wife called to tell him she was in labor, he was bailing at a moment's notice. Well, good for him the baby waited, now he's got another green jacket.  

Felt like no one was putting well on the first coupla days, a lot of lipping out or coming up just short, no one ever seemed to get a feel for the greens. Tiger made the cut...but was pretty awful on Saturday and Sunday. Mickelson and Singh hung around but never challenged the pack. DeChambeau had a moment where it felt like he was gonna hang, Max Homa looked good (til Sunday).  

I was intending to find a wider highlight package but Scheffler kinda dusted the field on Sunday, so just as well it's all him. Dominance is one thing but this Masters felt kinda anti-climactic and Scheffler made it his own.