Academy Awards

Oscars are here and its time to predict the winners. (Yeah, I'm writing this very late but I'm not paying any attention to the ceremony itself, so the predictions will be pure) For me the Oscars represent the end of the film season and like any event, they're fun to predict. Otherwise I don't really care who wins and like a regular season NFL between two uninteresting teams, I only care about the outcome, not the game itself. And though I'm picking the winners, I will be hedging my bets with some upset possibilities. (I'm skipping the shorts because I haven't seen them and even when I do see them, the ones I think ought to win never do (same reason I don't watch figure skating))

Best Doc -- Amy. I only saw two of the nominees and Amy seems to be the one with the most buzz.

Best Visual Effects -- Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I saw all five nominees and in terms of special effects, I think they are five fine choices for the award. Since Star Wars was shut out of the other sexy categories and since the original Lucas films set the standard in FX for the last 3 decades or so, I suspect Star Wars will win here.

Best Sound Editing -- Star Wars: The Force Awakens. (see above)

Best Sound Mixing -- Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I understand (I think) the difference between the two sound categories but I'd be willing to bet most Academy voters don't really care. And since the two sets of nominees are pretty similar, I suspect Star Wars takes them both. (Wouldn't be surprised to see Bridge of Spies win this)

Best Original Song -- Spectre. This is my least favorite category in the whole show. I'm not up on what the Academy thinks are good songs, nor do I care. The only film I saw in this category was Youth (my favorite film of the year, btw) and while I admired that song's complexity, it ain't exactly the most hummable thing I've heard in a while. I just chose the James Bond movie because...well, I don't know why.

Best Score -- Sicario. I don't tend to care about film scores: occasionally they're great, occasionally they're annoying but mostly, like a great bass player, I never notice them. My gut tells me that the Academy would love to give Ennio Morricone (The Hateful 8) the award but I have heard that on the ballots only the film itself is mentioned and I feel like there's an Academy backlash to Quentin Taratino (and I doubt too many voters actually sat through the film itself). I could see Star Wars or Bridge of Spies winning but I went with Sicario because it was one of my favorite scores of the year and I'm a little surprised to see it nominated. This category is strangely wide open this year. I could see any of the five winning.

Best Makeup/Hairstyling -- The Revenant. If anyone actually saw The 100 Year Old Man, I think they would quickly see that was one of the finest makeup jobs of the lest several years, but I'm suspecting the voters didn't see it. And Mad Max, great as it was, is a strange candidate for this one, so I think everyone goes for the movie they actually watched.

Best Costume Design -- The Danish Girl. I did not see The Danish Girl (Eddie Redmayne already creeps me out, watching him in a dress for two hours does not sound appealing at all), but since the plot revolves around clothing itself (specifically designed for the actor, no less), I'm guessing the voters will gravitate toward that title. Again, Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant are strange choices here--who the hell is watching Mad Max and thinking, 'Oooh, I'd look good in that!'?

Best Production Design -- Bridge of Spies. I think this was a film that everyone watched and kinda liked (but didn't love). This is the sort of award that voters will give to reward a film that will otherwise not get much love.

Best Editing -- Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Big action movies that everyone liked is always the front runner for editing, so Mad Max: Fury Road could win, as well. (Also, a story that revolves around crazy juxtapositions could win, a film like The Big Short could sneak this one)

Best Cinematography -- The Revenant. This one's a lock. Carol and Sicario both featured some very subtle and lovely camerawork but their reward is just get nominated. Mad Max: Fury Road was well done but some will think of that as an effects-driven picture and downgrade it. The Hateful 8 was mostly indoors and lovely as it was to look at, don't think I'd put in my top five this year and I suspect the voters won't either. Emmanuel Lubezki is the best in the business right now, I'd be kinda shocked if he doesn't win (again).

Best Foreign Film -- Son of Saul. This one feels close to a lock, too. This category usually has one film that has already come out (or is just about to) and four other movies no one's ever heard of. Theeb has some buzz and Son of Saul has its critics, but I suspect it'll win just in time for its nationwide roll out.

Best Animated Feature -- Inside Out. This was one of my favorite films this year and I'd be surprised if it didn't win. Its another crowd pleasing Pixar masterpiece, hard to imagine it not winning.

Best Adapted Screenplay -- Room. I don't think Room has a shot at Picture or Director but I think this is a movie everyone really respected: its a tough piece of work that pulls off some heavy, heavy (m'fuckin' heavy) stuff with ease. The Big Short or The Martian could win but I think they've got a better shot at stealing Best Picture, Brooklyn and Carol were lovely films that are getting rewarded with a nomination only.

Best Original Screenplay -- Spotlight. Tom McCarthy is one of the best screenwriters around today and this is a model of how you write a screenplay, kids: a ton of characters, a million little plot threads, a whodunnit-like collection of subplots and yet its all laid out before the viewer in an easily digestible manner. I think McCarthy would be better served if his scripts were directed by someone else. This is (IMHO) the best screenplay this year and I think the Academy will agree with me.

Best Director -- Innaritu (The Revenant). Yeah, he just won last year but he's really good at his job, he's snagged himself the best cinematographer in the business and this is a category where the Academy really wants to get it right. McCarthy is actually a pretty terrible director (this was the head scratching-est of all the nominations), indeed he keeps Spotlight from being a much better film. Abrahamson pulled off a real feat in Room but nobody knows who he is, so the nomination is his reward. While I think The Big Short could sneak up and grab Best Picture, I don't think McKay outmuscles Innaritu to get this award, so for McKay the nomination is a way of letting him know he can get A-Listers to be in his movies but I don't think he wins this year. Miller is a weird guy that makes weird movies but I could see him sneaking in and grabbing Best Director if the Academy is squeamish about going back-to-back with Innaritu. I'm not gonna call Innaritu a lock because I think Miller has a decent shot at winning but I don't think the other nominees do.

Okay, the acting categories. These are tough because you never know when the voters will choose their old friends or reach out to the newbies or actually reward the best (sometimes happens). I'll see if I can weave my way through.

Best Supporting Actress -- Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs). I know Alicia Vikander is the popular choice but she's too new, I feel like if the voters want an up-and-comer they would choose Rooney Mara instead because they already know her. If they want a glorious veteran whose never gotten her due, they'd reach for Leigh, but again I bet none of the voters watched that movie. McAdams is fine but nothing superlative in Spotlight, so I'm guessing she comes in a distant 5th in this category. Thus, the safe pick is Winslet: she's already won an Oscar before but no one hates her and she is really, really good in this performance. I can see Mara winning, but I just don't see Vikander taking this home even though she had a really good year.

Best Supporting Actor -- Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies). Stallone is the popular choice and he's good in Creed (really good, dude) but Sly's career is entirely based on popularity overseas, not in USA. (Before The Expendables, what was his last hit in America? Think about that for a minute....he's big in Indonesia, he's big in Turkey, he's big in Egypt, he ain't big in America, dude, and he never was. Winning the Golden Globe is no indication that he'll win the Oscar) Creed is a touching and solid reboot of the Rocky franchise but giving Sly the award after not nominating anyone else would be awkward and weird. Like McAdams, Ruffalo is fine in Spotlight but it is the crisp clear screenplay that drives that movie, not any single performance. Bale is fine in The Big Short but I think that has a better chance of stealing Best Picture, so the smaller awards go elsewhere, I think. Hardy should win this award--I thought that was one of the single finest performances of the entire year--but I doubt it. Rylance is one of those unsung British badasses that has been around forever and never gotten his due and Bridge of Spies is a film everyone liked, I think Rylance takes it.

Best Actress -- Brie Larson (Room). She's been around longer than you probably realize, she's steadily working for the last few years, she's been rolling through the awards season and she's really good in an unlikely likable movie. This one seems close to a lock, too. Blanchett is fine but I think Carol gets shut out. Rampling is very good in 45 Years but, man, that film's a bummer and she's not great enough to overcome that. Lawrence is wildly popular in the Academy thus she's invited to the party even though her movie sucked. Ronan is a lovely young actress in a lovely little movie, she'll be back in the future but she won't win this year. Larson is the perfect mix of up and comer and veteran, she's been working steady and everyone respects her. And she's really good.

Best Actor -- Leonardo Dicaprio (The Revenant). Cranston is lovable and popular, that's why he got nominated but that's as far as that goes. Redmayne just won last year, two in a row is a bit too rarefied for him right now. Fassbender is (IMHO) the best actor in the world right now (not named Day-Lewis) and he'll have many more shots at winning a statue. I really wanted to go with Damon stealing this one but I don't see it; The Martian was a likable piece of entertainment but not much more than that and, like Fassbender, Damon will have more shots to win. Dicaprio has been set up as the winner for months now and while I'd like to go with an upset, I don't see it coming. But, personally, this performance is not in my top five (or ten for that matter) this year. He crawls around and slobbers a lot, Tom Hardy was waaaay more interesting in this film. But everyone's been waiting for him to win, so I guess its his year.

Best Picture -- The Big Short. I think people really liked Brooklyn, The Martian and Bridge of Spies and really admired Room and Spotlight but I don't think there's enough support for any of those films to win the big prize. I think people dug Mad Max: Fury Road but who's gonna vote for that to win Best Picture? Lord of the Rings won but that was the end of a trilogy that was well respected and made a gajillion dollars, Mad Max: Fury Road is that rare silly popcorn movie that was just so goddamn good at what it set out to do that even the critics dug it, but its not a prize-winner, know what I mean? I think The Revenant was set up early in the season as Dicaprio's big moment, as another work of genius from Innaritu & Lubezki, maybe even as Tom Hardy's coming out and while the box office was surprisingly boffo and the critical response was grand, I just don't see The Revenant as a Best Picture winner. Yes, it is a technical marvel but does anyone really like the movie? A guy gets left for dead, turns out he's not dead, tracks down other dude for revenge...that's it? I think people respect it and I think Lubezki, Innaritu and Dicaprio get their statues, but I don't think anyone really loves the movie and I don't think its gonna win. Personally I thought The Big Short kinda sucked, its not terribly effective at telling a story or explaining how things work but its exactly the kind of populist crowd pleasing pseudo-serious junk that the Academy loves: it thinks its telling a grand story (but it isn't), it thinks its thumbing its nose at the moneyed classes (the one that are cashing the checks from the success of this movie) and it thinks its really clever at explaining to the masses what's wrong with Donald Trump's America (utterly tone deaf on that level). But I think it wins the big prize.

Rundown of the winners: 4 each for The Revenant and Star Wars: The Force Awakens; 2 for Room and Bridge of Spies; 1 each for Amy, The Big Short, The Danish Girl, Inside Out, Sicario, Son of Saul, Spectre, Spotlight, Steve Jobs. I think this is one of those years where nothing really dominates and the love gets spread all over the place. We'll see.