New Hampshire Primary

Democrats

Sanders 56
Clinton 40

In Iowa Clinton's early lead evaporated on caucus night resulting in a dead heat that was claimed as a victory for underdog Sanders; I expect the opposite to happen in New Hampshire. In the Democratic ranks Clinton is respected, Sanders is admired. In New Hampshire I think 'electability' is a genuine concern and while New Hampshire Dems admire Sanders, I think they'll find Clinton more electable and when the time comes they'll move in her direction. Considering that Iowa and New Hampshire (and Vermont) are considered Sanders' best states, Hillary will take a draw in New Hampshire as a demonstrable sign that she is the real candidate and Sanders' Iowa showing was an outlier. If indeed that does come to pass then Sanders is pretty much done and its only a matter of time before he starts doing stump speeches in favor of Hillary. I'll say Sanders 51%, Clinton 48%.

Republicans

Trump 34
Rubio 13
Cruz 13
Kasich 10
Bush 10
Christie 5
Fiorina 4
Carson 3

Again, the 'electability' of Trump has to be on the minds of New Hampshire Republicans and in the case of Trump, only the slightest doubt is needed to choose someone else. Or vice versa: if you think Trump isn't electable, then why not show for another candidate who's just as unelectable? Trump's lead is probably too large too surmount at this point but if he wins with only, say, 25%, there are a wide swath of candidates who pronounce him a 'loser'. There are a lot of guys that can't wait to tell Trump that he's fired (already kinda feeling bad for that day Trump announces that he's out of the race).  I think Trump gets 27%.

Rubio got dinged in the Republican debate according to media reports, but how voters will react to that isn't so easy to predict. Does Christie gain points for jumping on him? Or does Christie make everyone more sensitive to Christie's own repetitive speech? Honestly, accusing a politician of being repetitive is like complaining that Peyton Manning thanked his teammates after the big game: they're told what to say and how to say it, Christie and Rubio and Peyton Manning alike. It is the ultimate empty complaint and if that's the worst thing Rubio's got going for him, then, shit, man maybe he actually deserves to be president! Remember: New Hampshire features a close-up electorate and supposedly Rubio is quite likable in person, which combined with Cruz's general creepiness and Trump's unelectability, should work big in his favor. I say Rubio gets a solid 20%.

Cruz's showing in Iowa must be impressive to Republicans across the nation. But his subtle linkage with Trump is an impediment going forward. As Trump loses, I think Cruz loses. Cruz won't be able to woo those looking to jump off the Trump bandwagon and he won't rise above his current 13%.

Kasich has put his eggs in the New Hampshire basket and I suspect he gets a boost on election day. I think those looking to ditch Trump will reach for Kasich (if not Rubio). Kasich at this point is probably in line to be Rubio's VP, so going forward I expect Kasich and Rubio to form the reaction to Trump and Cruz. Kasich gets 15%, finishes 3rd and in that case he'll have to keep going.

I'm of the opinion that Bush has money, infrastructure and nothing better to do with his life. So win or lose in New Hampshire I think he keeps going and, again, he's got no other options in the political world. If folks find Trump and Kasich too unelectable, Cruz too creepy and Rubio not seasoned enough, then I think they reach for Bush. I expect Bush to get 12%, push Cruz for 4th place and pack his bags for South Carolina.

Christie got his highlight moment by picking on Rubio (a subtle sign that Rubio is the real frontrunner) but this is not much to build on. New Hampshire was supposed to be Christie's best chance to make a difference and pointing out that Rubio is in fact a politician doesn't seem like much of a star moment to me. Christie is only angling for a cabinet post and if he can't break 5% in New Hampshire than his year is done (til he gets hired to stump for someone else). I think Christie gets 5% and bows out before heading down South.

Fiorina got shafted in being dropped from the debate, I think that works in her favor. When Trump skips a debate, it's a slap in the face but when Fiorina wants in and can't get in, I think sympathy comes to her. Fiorina is here to raise her profile and to that extent, I don't think 'electability' is a consideration for her supporters. I think her 4% is solidly in her corner, I think she picks up another 1% peeling off of Trump. I say Fiorina gets 5%, virtual draw with Christie and heads back home (but as of right now, I fully expect to see her back in Iowa in 2020).

With Carson, I think 'electability' (or lack thereof) is a big consideration. He peaked in Iowa, 3 months before the caucus and I just can't see New Hampshire Republicans getting excited about him. I think he dips even further, gets 2% and the next we'll hear from him is when he writes a book about this election season. I doubt he comes back in 2020, unless he wants to get the Mike Huckabee treatment.