Thursday, February 11, 2016

NBA Pointless Trade Impossibilities

Trade deadline is looming and the rumors are flying. I still don't see the moves out there, there are plenty of players who might be available, but what are the chances they get moved?

David Lee (Celtics) -- Big ticket expiring contracts used to be all the rage but not this year, so in order for someone to pick up Lee's contract they have to get minutes out of him. Lee is a well-respected guy (nice fit for a young team) but his performance is rapidly deteriorating and there are precious few teams out there that could afford to have him play minutes. Even the Sixers, who have recently been amenable to being everybody's big ticket dumping ground (Keith Bogans, JaVale McGee, Danny Granger, among others) don't need the cap space and don't have the minutes for an aging below the rim power forward. Danny Ainge would love to move that big contract for a useful piece moving forward but I just don't see it happening.

Roy Hibbert (Lakers) -- Ditto. His contract is way too big for his performance and though it comes off the books in the summer, no one needs the cap space in a year when the cap is going up and everyone's already cleared room for a run at Durant anyway. Could the Lakers and Celtics swap these two? The Celtics could get more worthwhile minutes out of Hibbert than they could Lee (he'd be the rim protector they've long needed) but then again, so could the Lakers, so what's in it for them? Are the Celtics willing to pitch in one of their 400 draft picks for a slight temporary upgrade? I doubt it.

Dwight Howard (Rockets) -- With a player option for next year, he's effectively a free agent and would only be attractive to teams that think they could re-sign him. Hawks, Mavs, Nets might be the only real contenders for that. But the Nets don't have anyone that's terribly attractive (and the Nets need draft picks more than pricey veterans), the Mavs don't have the contracts to make a deal work (unless the Rockets wanted Chandler Parsons back, which I'm assuming they don't since they let him walk two years ago), which leaves the Hawks. But the Hawks would probably have to give up too much (think Horford, Teague and Korver or Sefolosha) to get a guy they might be able to sign in the summer. The trade rumblings suggest that Howard is available but I'm not seeing it.

Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, Jeff Green (Grizzlies) -- With Marc Gasol out, it would appear the Grizzlies are best off in tank mode for the rest of the year. Coach Joerger is not likely to return next year and Mike Conley will have many suitors beyond Memphis for his next contract, this looks like it could be the end to the grit and grind era in Memphis. Their contracts are very similar (all btw $9.8m and $9.0m this year) which makes them rather interchangeable in a trade scenario, but which would they rather keep (Randolph, Conley) and which would they rather swap (Green). Packaging two of those guys brings back a big ticket (who's out there?), all three is too much for a reasonable deal, any one of them is likely to bring back a similar situation. So how do they get a deal done?

Kevin Martin (Grizzlies) -- Aging scorer, signed back when the Wolves had nothing but has now outgrown his purpose in Minnesota. At $7m, he's a reasonably priced option off the bench for a playoff team but who do the Wolves want in return? Who is out there that matches their needs? I'm not seeing it. Can they get OKC to take him for Dion Waiters and Cameron Payne? I doubt it.

Nene Hilario (Wizards) -- Nene's one of those guys that's pretty good....when he's not hurt. He's older now, relatively healthy but probably only useful for limited minutes. Does he make anybody better for $13m? Not a bad player, not even a terrible contract, but not good enough to put in the work to bring him in.

Markieff Morris (Suns) -- Very reasonable contract ($8m), nice young player but...kind of a weirdo head case and inconsistent on the court. He wants to play with his brother which would make Detroit the only clear fit for him but the Pistons don't have the assets. Phoenix has to get rid of him (choking a teammate on the bench is just not cool, man, especially after the team already fired the coaching staff) but he's too valuable to just give away. (Man, the Suns front office has just f'ed up everything over the last 2-3 years) Does he go to Milwaukee for OJ Mayo? But then its on Milwaukee to go get Marcus Morris, right? Does John Henson and a 1st round draft pick get the Morris twins back together?

Hassan Whiteside (Heat) -- Probably the most puzzling asset out there: he's too cheap to trade and not reliable enough for anyone to desire his Bird rights. I think he and the Heat are stuck with each other: they can give him the most money but will they want to? He's so cheap, he has to be packaged with (presumably) Luol Deng just to get him up trade-ability. The Heat are a veteran outfit and as promising as Markieff Morris is, the idea that he's more valuable short or long term than Deng is debatable. Can the Heat pry Nicolas Batum out of Charlotte with these two? And would that be worth it anyway?

Ryan Anderson (Pelicans) -- This is the guy everybody wants. But how does the deal get done? How much are you willing to pay for a rental? When cap space isn't an issue, rentals become less attractive. There's only so much season left for a new guy to make an impact and if he's gone in the summer, then its almost not worth doing. Feels like Anderson could pretty much pick where he wants to play next year but he may as well just wait for the summer to make his decision. As much as everybody wants this guy, I don't see him getting moved (unless the Celtics or Grizzlies make some unbelievable offer).

Joakim Noah (Bulls) -- ....Would've been on this list if he hadn't had a season-ending ankle injury. That injury really throws the Bulls plans up in the air: they may have had a nice trade chip with Noah, but not they either have to move Pau Gasol or lose Noah in free agency (or lose both, which I think is what's gonna happen).

Greg Monroe (Bucks) -- Though he has was one of the most coveted free agents of last summer, it appears the Bucks are already ready to move on from that deal. He is pretty one dimensional but the contract isn't too bad (in a rising salary cap world, that is). Do they take David Lee and a draft pick from the Celtics? Are they willing to take on Hibbert? Monroe might not be the perfect fit but it feels like all they can get back for him now are expiring vets that leave them looking to start over in the summer. While I'm not a fan of Monroe's fit with the Bucks, they're a young team and I think holding them together is probably a better idea going forward that hitting the reset button so quickly.

Al Horford (Hawks) -- The Hawks seem ready to blow it up. It appears they hit their peak some time last year (I'd say around the all-star break) and this current squad needs to be rebuilt. But wait: while they're not likely to beat the Cavs, this iteration of the Hawks is still one of the better teams in the East. If peeling off the core players would make them better, I'd say go for it but I doubt it would. Personally I'd try to keep Horford and roll into next year with the same bunch of guys, keep the consistency and hope for the best (namely, a devastating injury to some other team). But the Celtics can offer draft picks, so I suspect they give away Horford to the Celtics for 'future considerations', which would probably drum them out of the playoffs in the East. If they move Horford, then they may as well move Teague and Korver too. (They're almost getting to the point where they have to make a move because the rumors must be unsettling on a team where the coach and the GM are the same guy: the GM isn't some guy in a suit that sends out mass emails, he's the coach they all talk to every day. That makes a difference)

Blake Griffin (Clippers) -- For Blake to get moved (is that even possible with him being injured right now?), it would have to be a blockbuster. I'm not seeing it. There are plenty of teams that would love to have Blake Griffin but for playoff teams now is a terrible time to do it and for non-playoff teams it would be probably distort their whole roster. Besides, the Clippers would be crazy to move him unless they were getting back at least a top 10 player in this league.

Tobias Harris (Magic) -- Like Greg Monroe, his contract is too big for anyone to take unless they were dumping garbage to get rid of him. For the Magic, they'd be better off holding on him and capturing his value on the court. Some cars are investments, some cars are only as valuable as far you can drive them. Harris and Monroe are in the latter camp: the value you derive from them is on the court, not on the trading block.

The Hawks and the Grizzlies are the two teams that look to be in fire sale mode, while the Celtics look like the team that might be willing to overpay just to buy something. There's lots of talk about lots of players and lots of teams looking to wheel and deal. But I'm just not seeing it. I suspect there will be some deals, a handful of tiny paper shuffling deals and there might even be a blockbuster or two, but either way I suspect the trades that happen will be shocking out of nowhere moves that leave the commentariat scratching their heads.

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