This game was kinda sad. The Steelers are wily veterans and the Colts are young and dumb, which made for a sloppy uninspiring match. The Steelers are okay, the Colts are not that good.
Ravens 30-23 (OT) Falcons
The Falcons have their moments, the Ravens are good at giving away games, but this game was backwards. The Falcons kinda dominated the game until the Ravens got going late to get to OT and then to take over. I'll say it: I believe in the Falcons, if they can get some consistent QB play, they'll score. As for the Ravens, I dunno, man, I've never been as big a fan of this style as I feel like I'm supposed to be.
Bills 37-34 (OT) Rams
Okay, look: if you go into OT, you have 10 minutes to outscore your opponent. During the course of that 10 minute period it will likely come down to one single play to seal the victory. So....just spitballin' here....why not go for the 2-point conversion to win the game at the end of regulation? WTF is so special about putting your team out there for 10 more minutes? At any rate, the Rams had their chance to win and they chose to overtime instead....I thought the coach was a genius but I guess I'm not seeing it. Both teams can score, not sure either team can stop a serious offense.
The rest of the slate:
Bucs 24-16 Cowboys
Oh, Cowboys, even when the game is handed to you, you can't take it?
Eagles 17-19 Jaguars
The Jags are good right now and the Eagles are scuffling, looks like this game was closer than it should've been.
Bears 7-31 Packers
Division game. Bears with a 2nd string QB, Packers finally getting some semblance of cohesion. Watch out for a Packer run!
Texans 26-3 Titans
The Titans are not good--so not good that I presume their 2027-28 opening day QB will be Arch Manning. The Texans have not played well so far but they can't be as bad as they've looked, don't be surprised if they start wrecking the playoff hopes of their upcoming opponents.
Bengals 31-24 Dolphins
The Bengals are okay, the Dolphins are not.
Raiders 17-45 Patriots
The Pats win big! Clearly all their problems have been solved! The Raiders taste tested QB Mendoza, wonder how much more we'll see of him this season.
Vikings 23-13 Saints
The Vikings D is good, the offense quite a bit less so. The Saints are the Saints.
Browns 12-27 Jets
Thought the Browns had a winnable game, but bad weather and just general Brown-ness led to them being thwarted. The Jets have their moments, I don't think they've figured anything out yet but they play hard.
Giants 27-27 Commanders
Yeah, a draw. "I'll take the tie and get out of town!"
Broncos 23-17 Chargers
Saw none of this, probably a good game. The Chargers still can't figure it out.
Lions 45-21 Cards
Looks like a fun one. The Lions can score, but the defense...not so much. The Cards are looking ahead to the 2027 Draft.
Niners 32-29 Seahawks
Looks like a fun one. Niners and Seahawks may well be playing for the NFC championship.
Wow, I thought Texas worked really hard to lose this game! The Longhorn defense is very good but it gives up ridiculous penalties; the Longhorn offense has moments but is mostly stagnant. Oklahoma, on the other hand, is okay, they're not particularly good at anything on either side of the ball, they're not an embarrassment but this is by no means some classic Sooner squad. Man, all Texas had to do was not give this away and that's precisely what they did. My Arch Manning hot take: he reminds me of Will Levis; yes, I know that sounds awful but going into the draft Levis was considered as a potential #1 pick, so maybe that isn't as bad as you think; that said, when Levis got to Kentucky, I thought he was really good at running the ball and playing backyard football but he clearly wanted to mold himself into an NFL prospect and so he stood there like an old timey pocket passer and...well, he wasn't very good at that. Manning needs to let himself be himself and maybe he'll turn in to something; and, if not, well, he wasn't gonna be the NFL QB we all wanted him to be anyway
(7) Indiana 20-17 Nebraska
I was impressed with Nebraska, they made stops on D and managed to pull out nifty big chunk plays on offense when they needed it. Unfortunately, there was more clock than they were ready to deal with--if this game was 50 minutes long, I think the Cornhuskers win convincingly. The Hoosiers have Ohio State coming up next week, this was a "trap" game, and they wriggled out of it, so good on them. But I really thought they could've/should've been wildly better than Nebraska and I wanted to see them take over game earlier than the last 5 minutes (where they were able to successfully play Nebraska's aggressiveness against them). Good W for the Hoosiers, keep an eye on the Huskers, I think they might be kinda good.
(10) Louisiana State 34-35 (OT) Kentucky
I was back and forth with baseball on this night (and I was drunk as all get out--but both my teams won, so all good!), but this was a fun one. Kept waiting for LSU to take control, to squeeze the life out of the Cats (as I've seen happen so many times in my life) and it just didn't happen. The Cats made plays down the stretch, then stole the W in OT for the 2nd time in as many weeks! LSU isn't ready to take over the world just yet, while Kentucky surges up the rankings. Pinch me.
(21) UCLA 17-15 (13) Oregon
Wow, Oregon suuuuuuuuucccccckkkkked in this game! They didn't do anything well at any point in the game. They were so bad that its hard to get a sense of UCLA, I mean, the Bruins should've dominated the shit out of this game but it was still close late. But, man, Oregon was awful at every phase of the game, so for UCLA to squeak it out late is not a ringing endorsement, though they have played well so far. I don't know what's up with Oregon, they are not right.
Good win really for the Hoosiers, they could've fallen and they didn't and I should be more optimistic about that, I suppose. But they could've wrapped this up early with a more consistent offensive game plan and instead they relied on last minute hero ball.
Bad beat
(6) Alabama (Georgia 20-17 Alabama)
Losing to your main rival at home always sucks, but Georgia is really good right now, I presume they will be #1 in next week's poll. Alabama has been up and down but when their offense is cooking, they've looked damn good at times and I don't think this L will doom their season.
Not so good
(1) Texas (Texas 24-27 Oklahoma)
Yipes, Longhorns, what do you want? Do you want to win?
(10) Louisiana State (LSU 34-35 (OT) Kentucky)
I seem to recall 2 seasons ago when UK beat Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss squad in Oxford, kinda destroyed their season really. Long live the Kentucky "season-killer" Wildcats!
(13) Oregon (UCLA 17-15 Oregon)
Oregon has to figure some things out.
(16) Florida (South Carolina 38-19 Florida)
Wow, 2 weeks ago I was blown away by Florida's dominance of Ole Miss. Since then, they got stomped in Missouri and and now at home by South Carolina. WTF, Gators?
(25) Pittsburgh (North Carolina 21-17 Pittsburgh)
Pitt was undefeated and ranked but couldn't handle the Tar Heels. Not a good look.
Next week's intriguing matches:
(4) Ohio State @ (5) Indiana (game of the week--in a pretty strong week!)
(16) Mississippi State @ (22) Louisiana State (SEC probably has too many ranked teams, no?)
(6) Alabama @ (14) Tennessee (good bounce back opportunity for the Tide or back to back devastating rivalry L's)
(13) Missouri @ (9) Mississippi (SEC probably has too many ranked teams, no?)
(2) Notre Dame @ (8) Brigham Young (the Irish are riding high, should probably flummox BYU, but we'll see)
(15) Kentucky @ Oklahoma (Kentucky is as hot as they've been in...ever? OU just beat Texas, one of these teams is gonna be disappointed)
(18) Oklahoma State @ (20) Houston (two schools ready to jump up the rankings)
The Brown built a nice halftime lead, let the Steelers come back, but then the Steelers faltered and the Browns won anyway. These teams are both capable of being good but they're also both capable of laying an egg. If QB Watson can keep it going, the Browns might be good.
Jaguars 22-17 Bengals
The Jags are just better than the Bengals. This wasn't a blowout but I never thought the Bengals were gonna win.
Chiefs 30-27 Raiders
The Raiders hung for while, then the Chiefs ran off and left them, but the Raiders kept at it and made it close in the end. The Raiders are one of those classic teams that isn't very good but they play hard and that alone wins games in the NFL. As for the Chiefs, they're good enough to curry favor from the refs (which irritates the shit out of me, but what are ya gonna do?).
The rest of the slate:
Colts 30-13 Commanders
Thought the Commanders would bring it abroad but once their (2nd string) QB got hurt, they were pretty much done for the day. The Colts have moments but I can't imagine they're actually particularly good.
Patriots 29-26 Bills
A bit of a shocker for the mighty home team but it's a division game and those are always unpredictable. We'll see if the Bills even it up later on in Foxboro.
Jets 12-23 Bears
Looks like a slopfest of a game. I think the Jets play hard and while I want to believe in the Bears, I'm not sure they're going to be consistent enough to be very scary.
Cards 24-36 Giants
The Giants with a nice W. The Cards still plugging along til next year's draft.
Rams 24-20 Eagles
The Rams are the "good version" of the Eagles? Both of these squads are loaded with talent but neither plays with much intensity.
Packers 17-14 Bucs
The Packers have yet to look very good this year. Ditto the Bucs.
Titans 18-24 Ravens
The Ravens almost bungled this away. The Titans look like the very worst team in the league to me--a serious candidate to go winless!
Cowboys 34-30 Texans
The Cowboys and Texans are both kinda disappointing so far this season. I guess I gotta say the Texans are even more disappointing than the Cowboys.
Dolphins 10-15 Vikings
The Vikings D looks monstrous but the offense does not. The Dolphins are flounders.
Broncos 14-24 Niners
Would've liked to have seen this one. I think the Niners might be the best team in the league. The Broncos are like last year: they play hard, they plug away, they don't get blown out so they're always dangerous, but do we really think they're a really good team?
Chargers 23-30 Seahawks
The Chargers are at least starting to move the ball and look a little dangerous, but its probably already too late for them. The Seahawks just keep getting W's.
Lions 26-32 Panthers
I bet this was a fun one. The Lions can score but that D looks hideous. The Panthers are a trick-or-treat team.
Falcons 45-24 Saints
I've thought all season that if the Falcons can just get some reliable QB play, they could be really good. The Saints are the Saints.
I was in and out of this game (I'm still a baseball nerd at heart) but I didn't see anything Florida do anything in this match. Every time I turned it on, it was to catch Missouri to score another TD or get another big stop on D. Nice work, Missouri, but honestly this was all about that disappointing Gator show.
If USC was really gonna be a squad, I can't help thinking they would have closed out a so-so conference foe at home with more confidence. Don't wanna bang on the Huskies, but they haven't looked particularly good this season, I think the Trojans should've brought it
(21) Southern Methodist (Boston College 16-25 SMU)
BC is not good right now, I kinda thought SMU's offense would roll. Instead this was much closer throughout than it should have been. Not impressive from the Mustangs.
Bad beat
(14) Iowa (Ohio State 31-14 Iowa)
The Hawkeyes brought their D, the game was a little closer than the score suggests, but that offense still just doesn't exist. So they hung for 2 quarters or so but the Buckeyes were able to pile up points and Iowa just couldn't keep up. Still think Iowa is a pretty good squad but they're not in Ohio State's class.
(16) Mississippi State (Alabama 56-23 Mississippi State)
Yeah, they got trucked at home by a conference foe but Alabama is getting their offense cranked up and there just wasn't much Mississippi State was gonna do about it. Bama is looking pretty good right now.
Not so good
(8) Florida (Florida 17-45 Missouri)
Man, I was blown away by Florida's offense a week ago at home against Ole Miss, I thought the huge jump into the top 10 was absolutely warranted. But, in Columbia, that offense didn't get going at all. I thought Florida was primed for a run and so now what? Am I supposed to get behind Missouri?
Next week's intriguing matches:
Iowa State @ (8) Brigham Young (Iowa State is always an upset candidate, might be nothing but BYU better bring it just to make sure)
Texas A&M @ (14) Missouri (its easy to say that A&M is done but with Missouri coming off a big W against Florida, I can't help thinking this is gonna be a close match)
(1) Texas @ Oklahoma (Texas ought to win easily but will that happen?)
(21) UCLA @ (13) Oregon (I kinda think Oregon is ready to roll, but UCLA has gotten off to good start, curious to see how long they can keep it going)
(10) Louisiana State @ Kentucky (easy to say that the Tigers will stomp the Wildcats, but both of these squads are kinda weird right now and actually UK has had decent success against LSU over the years; you never know....)
(2) Georgia @ (6) Alabama (okay, game of the week--game of the season, so far)
(19) Southern Cal @ Penn State (is USC ready to do what needs to be done? Can Penn State still turn their season around?)
Everyone bags on the Falcons but if they can figure out QB, the rest of that offense is kinda loaded and the pass rush is good, too. For now, QB Pennix looks like the guy (we'll see how long he can stay upright) and I'm not at all surprised that the Falcons are moving the ball right now. I'm a little shocked at how bad the Packers are, not sure what their problem is, they're just not very good right now. This game was not a shock to me but I still expect the Packers to figure it out at some point.
Chargers 16-24 Bills
Wow, slopfest of a game--so many dumb penalties and turnovers! The Bills eventually got going, the Chargers eventually stopped working after jumping out to an early lead. The Bills are a gunslinger team, the Chargers are a mess.
Bengals 27-30 Steelers
Meh, these two are basically the same team: surprisingly good D-line, good talent on the offense but a QB struggling to get the ball downfield. I'm not as impressed with the Bengals as I feel like I'm supposed to be and I'm not as bummed by the Steelers as I thought I would be.
Rams 26-30 Broncos
Fun game. Typical Broncos come back late. The Rams were the better team for three quarters but couldn't slam the door shut--when they figure out how to close games, they'll be really good. The Broncos are okay, they're spunky but I'm not sure if they're actually any good.
Eagles 7-27 Bears
Yeech! The Eagles kinda stink! The Bears are fun, we see how well they can actually close games, although they did just fine with backup QB Keenum tonight. The Eagles do this every year but this year they seem even weirder than usual. The Bears are pretty good, man, but they will lose games they ought to win (while winning games they ought to lose).
The rest of the slate:
Panthers 18-21 Browns
QB Watson getting it done! If he can actually play--a possibility no one even bothered to consider--the Browns might win their division.
Jets 24-31 Lions
Looks like a sloppy game but a fun one. The Jets aren't good but they play hard and weird, they'll win some games. The Lions still have the offense but the defense isn't as good as its been lately.
Texans 17-19 Colts
The Texans still can't get going. The Colts are meh.
Chiefs 24-10 Dolphins
Yeah, yeah.
Titans 7-12 Giants
Glad I missed this one. The Giants are a weird team, gonna be dangerous some weeks and positively invisible in others.
Patriots 6-35 Jaguars
The Jags are rolling right now. The Pats are weird but I wouldn't worry just yet, I think the Jags are actually really good.
Seahawks 31-33 Commanders
Whoa! What happened here? Looks like the Commanders got turnovers and put points on the board and that was enough to outlast the Seahawks.
Cardinals 30-36 Niners
Division game. The Niners got the W, that's all that matters.
Vikings 23-16 Bucs
What is up with the Bucs? Are the Vikings actually good?
Ravens 34-31 Cowboys
It was simply a matter of which team would make the fatal mistake and give the game away....this week it was the Cowboys.
Raiders 35-27 Saints
The Raiders are kinda for real, right? The Saints are gamers, not particularly good but they play hard.
Texas's defense was monstrous in this game, not sure why they fell asleep on that late 4th quarter drive that allowed the Vols to keep it close (the other TD was a nifty punt return). The Longhorn offense was not impressive, I chalk that up to Tennessee playing some pretty good defense, too. I thought Texas QB Manning had a coupla good drives and wasn't terrible but he wasn't special either; and as for Tennessee QB Brandon, I'd say keep an eye on that guy, he's got skills (a next level Anthony Richardson?). Texas is good, this was a good W and would've been more dominant if they'd a) cut out the stupid defensive penalties, b) played all the way through the 4th quarter instead of slacking off and c) really tried to get the running game going. Tennessee is not bad, the QB is a work in progress, but the D-line is pretty good and if they can get the ball downfield, they'll definitely outscore a lot of their opponents. Sludgy game but a good one.
(4) Mississippi 28-52 (21) Florida
Wow, Florida's offense is legit and the defense is good enough to slow down a fine squad like Ole Miss. I thought Florida took charge early in the game and the Rebels were never able to get the tempo where they wanted it, the momentum was just never in their favor, they were just watching the avalanche come down to them. As for Florida, oh that attack is for real! They're #21 this week but I expect them to be in the top 10 soon enough.
(20) Oregon 41-27 (12) Southern Cal
In and out of this game but I watched most of the 4th quarter, where the Ducks moved the ball and got stops and the Trojans did not. Looked like a pretty even contest for three quarters, then Oregon made plays down the stretch and the Trojans couldn't get it done. Oregon has been pretty sloppy so far this season and this game will likely be remembered for the brutal hit that QB Moore suffered (a pretty ordinary play when I was a kid but with the softening of the game in the last decade, you just don't see carnage like that much any more), I saw this as a get-right game for the Ducks and establishing that they are still clearly better than USC; I think Oregon is finally ready to be the team they were supposed to be this season, even with a backup QB. As for the Trojans, they're not bad but....that's all they are....not bad.
(17) Iowa 20-19 (18) Michigan
All I saw really was the final play where the Hawkeyes ran out the clock with the game-winning TD. Good stuff!
But why didn't Michigan put more time back on the clock and keep playing? They finally found a strategy that works for them and then failed to employ it in an important conference game? Puzzling...
The Hoosier offense had been running as smooth as anyone in the land so far, but then....what? Northwestern is some kind of defensive juggernaut? And the Hoosiers suffered a major injury to their starting RB and gave up a bunch of point late...not looking good in Bloomington suddenly. Curious to see how they bounce back from this.
Bad beat
(4) Mississippi (Ole Miss 28-52 Florida)
Normally when a top 5 team gets pantsed in a conference game, I would put this in the "Not so good" category. But was genuinely impressed with Florida's offense --not just skill but depth at the skill positions--and talent on both sides of the ball and as of now I see the Gators as wildly underrated. So I'll give the Rebels another chance to save some face because I think was more of an ambush than a gimme for them. I think both these sides are pretty good but for now the Gators look kinda devastating.
(14) Tennessee (Texas 20-17 Tennessee)
The Vols did well to keep it close, stuck in a late TD to make it a nailbiter (when in reality the Longhorns were the better team throughout) and I think their young QB could really turn into something against lesser competition. While I definitely think the Longhorns are better on both sides of the ball than the Vols, I think the Vols are probably better than you think. Keep an eye on the Vols.
(18) Michigan (Iowa 20-19 Michigan)
Another one I probably would've put in the "Not so good" category but I think these two squads are pretty even and Iowa was just lucky enough to have their shot at a stealing a W (which they did). Even game between even opponents, I think they're both pretty good squads and if this game had been one second longer....well, you just never know.
(19) Missouri (Missouri 24-31 Mississippi State)
Missouri held the lead for long stretches of the game but State came back on them. Which is the better team? Well, for 2026 it is Mississippi State, though both squads are probably pretty similar.
Not so good
(12) Southern Cal (Oregon 41-27 USC)
Southern Cal just couldn't get it done down the stretch, you gotta win these games to be one of the big dogs.
(13) Penn State (Wisconsin 24-20 Penn State)
Penn State was up most of the game, but Wisconsin ended up winning. I don't even know how. But, you gotta win these games....
(16) Louisville (Wake Forest 30-27 Louisville)
Big fave at home, Louisville has a pretty soft schedule, they absolutely could've gone undefeated this season, but to blow one like this at home is disappointing. You gotta...
(23) Texas A&M (Texas A&M 6-35 LSU)
A&M is done. Officially.
Next week's intriguing matches:
(7) Alabama @ (16) Mississippi State (I think the Tide will roll, but we'll see)
(5) Ohio State @ (14) Iowa (if Iowa can slow down the Buckeye passing attack, perhaps they can hang around and steal another one this week)
(8) Florida @ (25) Missouri (I was blown away by Florida's offense last week, I suspect Missouri will be their next victim)
Fun one. The Bills were up 21-0 almost instantly, pretty even match from that point on. The Lions started slow, got no lucky breaks and while they were never really in the game, they did pile up some points and moved the ball with confidence. The Bills defense isn't wowing anyone, feels like the Bills have finally figured out that their success is built on scoring every time they touch the ball.
Vikings 9-3 Bears
Fun game (if you like slop). Neither team could move the ball at all in the misty muddy conditions. Just as the Bears were about the stick in the TD that surely would've sealed the victory, QB Williams pulled up lame. Looked bad at first, then not quite as bad on replay, now everyone is clowning on him because it seems like he'll be back in Week Three, when he was hang-dogging like his career was over on the sideline. Anyway, both of these squads were on the 2nd string QBs by the end and neither team could do anything anyway. Weird game, one of those you just chalk up to weirdness and move on.
Bengals 20-6 Texans
I dunno, man, I was not impressed with anything the Texans were doing in this game. The D looked flat and backpedaling, the offense couldn't move forward at all. Everyone is blaming QB Stroud, but I don't think so. I think the O-line is not good, the WRs are kinda terrible, the running game is non-existent and the defense everyone was raving about isn't getting stops. You can blame the QB if you want, but I don't think its him. It could be the Bengals defensive Renaissance is for real (meh, maybe) or that the Bengal attack is back on track (the passing game is humming right now), and maybe the Bengals are gonna be for-real dangerous this season (could be). But I think this game was really more about everything going wrong in Houston and that is EVERYTHING (except the QB that is taking all the blame).
Colts 30-33 (OT) Chiefs
The Colts had a 4th down call late in the game that ended up in a penalty, so they kicked the tying FG in OT and then let the Chiefs come back and win the game. This was the controversial moment of the game but my quibble wasn't the 4th down FG itself, it was the first three downs they squandered. In that position, I would've wanted only a TD, a tie is of little use if you're gonna hand the ball back to QB Mahomes. So it was 4-down territory the whole time and they farted around on the first two downs, scrambled on 3rd down, got stuck with a 4th and long and basically had to kick the FG, which was just giving the game away at that point. It wasn't the 4th down, it was the 1st and 2nd downs that were wasted. Not sure what the Colts are (this is, like, the 5th year in a row that I don't understand what the Colts are), while the Chiefs seem better than last year (but not exactly vintage).
The rest of the slate:
Panthers 34-3 Falcons
The Panthers offense looks pretty damn good. Sup wit dat?
Eagles 24-20 Titans
Eagles had to steal the W, not a good sign, but they did get the W, so what do you want? The Titans are gonna be looking at drafting another QB next spring, I'm guessing.
Steelers 3-20 Patriots
The Pats don't look very good, the Steelers look bloody awful.
Packers 20-17 (OT) Jets
Two ugly teams getting ugly together. NYJ probably should've taken this but no one is surprised they didn't. The Packers got lucky (and no one is surprised about that either).
Browns 23-19 Bucs
To be fair, this game had a weird rain delay deep into the 4th quarter that interrupted what could (should?) have been the game-winning drive for the Bucs. That said, they shouldn't have let it get to that point. The Bucs are 0-2 and I thought they were the better team in both games.....is this a fixable problem or are they already cooked? As for the Browns, kinda thought the Deahsun Watson experience would've been over by now, but he just got a W on the road, so....can't stop now.
Saints 24-17 Ravens
Listen: more than any team in all of sports, the Saints do NOT tank, they are not out there trying to lose--indeed, they're trying to win the Super Bowl every damn Sunday no matter how sorry their roster is. So, while it is sad to see them spin their wheels at times, it is heartening to watch their never-say-die-ness go into a place like Baltimore and steal a W. Are the Saints good? Probably not, but they don't roll over, you have to beat them to get the W. As for the Ravens, I mean they've been like this for more than a decade now, right? Just when you think it is their time and they're going to dominate, they lose at home to the Saints. (Likewise, every time you're ready to give up on them, they go on a run) Up-down is just who the Ravens are.
Jaguars 13-20 Broncos
Seemed like the Jags had this one, then the Broncos stole it late. I think both of these teams are going to be good and this is probably the correct outcome.
Raiders 26-14 Chargers
Another sluggish performance (on both sides of the ball) from the Chargers, so, uh, wtf, guys? What is going on in LA? As for the Raiders, they look frisky, they look loose and it looks like it might be a while before we see their rookie QB. Chargers need to figure it out pronto.
Commanders 20-37 Cowboys
Yeah, division game. Commander QB Daniels hurt his elbow (yowza, a gnarly highlight) and that was pretty much it for the Commanders. The Cowboys looked better than last week but division games are always weird. Not looking good for the Commanders (it's Mariota time!), not sure yet about the Cowboys.
Seahawks 31-7 Cards
The Cards looked pretty good at the Chargers last week, not so much against the Seahawks (with a backup QB), who were clearly in no mood to mess around. I think the Cards are not particularly good but I think they're gonna be scrappy. The Seahawks look good and they look no-nonsense (don't mess with these dudes).
Dolphins 13-35 Niners
*yawn* Yeah, the Dolphins.
Giants 6-28 Rams
And here it is: Giants QB Dart got hurt, looks to be out for several weeks. Okay in last week's post I pointed out that while no one really thought much of NYG coming into this season that pessimism was based on the fact that we all knew Dart was going to get hurt eventually. We were all shocked the Giants stuffed the Cowboys last week, but they were healthy. Now they are no longer healthy. And the Rams finally looked like what we thought the Rams were gonna be.
Last year, Coach Lane Kiffin left Ole Miss as they were heading into the quarterfinals to take the LSU job. I couldn't believe a coach would leave a team that had a shot at winning the title--they beat Georgia!--to take a job at a school that had been a mess for a while. How do you walk away from a contender? Well, now Coach Kiff is back with his LSU Tigers and I'm sure he was expecting to get the better of his old mates. Didn't happen. I think Ole Miss kinda fell asleep after halftime and allowed LSU to make a game of it, but one good scoring drive was all the Rebels needed to finish off the Tigers. Ole Miss was better last year, still better this year.
I don't want to diss on New Mexico, but what the hell was that? OU has yet to look good--and I was not a fan of how they closed last season. The Sooners look like they have a long way to go to actually the earn the rankings they've already had this season.
Bad beat
(7) Louisiana State (LSU 24-32 Mississippi)
I'm gonna be generous to the Tigers and call this a Bad Beat, when we all know Lane Kiffin and the Tiger faithful really wanted to come into Ole Miss and lay a beatdown. But that wasn't happening because Ole Miss is pretty good. I liked their offense and pass rush last year, still impressed with them this year. LSU under Kiffin will be better than they have been lately, but maybe not this year (and not in Oxford).
(16) Southern Methodist (SMU 31-41 Louisville)
A back and forth game, the Cardinals took control in the 2nd half. SMU went on the on the road and (kinda) hung with a ranked opponent, not a bad L.
(22) Houston (Houston 26-28 Texas Tech)
Needed the 2-point conversion to tie it late, didn't get it. Too little, too late for the Cougars. Not a bad L, though, looked like a fun game.
Not so good
(9) Texas A&M (Kentucky 31-21 Texas A&M)
Whoa! Kentucky winning conference games on the road doesn't happen often, so what happened here? On the one hand, outside of the 2nd half of last week's Alabama, UK has played well this season--weller than usual! So can A&M turn it around? Were the caught off guard by a Kentucky squad playing with unexpected confidence? Or is it all over for the Aggies? I have no idea. My gut feeling is UK just came in feeling themselves and A&M just didn't know how to react. That might be because they're not that good (still not overwhelmed by their QB) or it could be that they turn dangerous from here. We'll see.
(25) Virginia (West Virginia 38-27 Virginia)
It's early but this is not a good result for the Cavs. WVU has been down lately, UVA has been, well, overrated, lately, but you're still expecting a well regarded Cavs squad at home to get the W over the Mountaineers. Well, not so much.
Next week's intriguing matches:
(1) Texas @ (14) Tennessee (game of the week, right off the bat)
Illinois @ (7) Ohio State (Illinois is an enigma: this will either be the most fascinating game of the week or it'll be long over by halftime)
(4) Mississippi @ (21) Florida (I think the Rebels will get it done on the road, but we'll just have to see it, won't we?)
(17) Iowa @ (18) Michigan (yeah, I guess I'm supposed to care)
(23) Texas A&M @ (10) Louisiana State (hmmmmm....both coming off embarrassing L's, let's see whose season is over by Saturday night)
(20) Oregon @ (12) Southern Cal (could be fun or could be a tire fire--which might be fun!)
(19) Missouri @ (24) Mississippi State (I doubt either of these teams will be ranked by the end of September)
Seahawks lost QB Darnold on the first drive, had to go to backup Drew Lock, felt like the Pats had a shot. The Pats were more consistent on offense through the 3rd quarter. But Lock was pretty good, the Seahawks finally started moving the ball; and on the other side, QB Maye just kept throwing interceptions (3--I thought all were his fault). The Pats were generally the better team but they didn't put points on the board and Lock made plays (better than I've ever seen him play before--is Lock the new Sam Darnold?). The game was there for the Pats to take (or at least extend into OT) but they didn't snatch the opportunity, Maye was pretty bad in the 4th quarter. Disappointing L for the Pats, but not a killer, not unexpected, shouldn't really affect them all that much. Good W for the Seahawks--how long can they keep it going with Lock under center?
Bucs 27-33 Bengals
The Bucs just kept turning the ball over and once they stopped doing that, I thought they were the better team. Let's be clear: these were not "Bengals defense" turnovers, these were sloppy Bucs plays. So are the Bengals the better team? I don't know (but I kinda doubt it).
Packers 22-39 Vikings
The Packers just stopped playing, while the Vikings kept going. The Packers had a comfortable lead going into the 4th quarter, generally looked like the better team through the first three, then the Vikings pass rush just started swarming the Packers. All momentum went to the home team, the Packers just collapsed and the Vikings took over. Are the Packers bad? Are the Vikings good? Not enough to tell from this game (but I'm leaning "yes" and "no").
Cowboys 20-28 Giants
This is a shock but is it really? The theory on the Giants is that they're skill players will eventually get hurt and there's no way they'll be able to weather an entire season without major injuries. But this is Week 1, everybody's healthy, so is it really a shock that the Giants were better than you thought they'd be on both sides of the ball? Or that the Cowboys are sluggish? Not at all. The Giants were the better team from beginning to end but I'm not done with the Cowboys just yet. And as for the Giants, well, let's see how long they stay healthy.
The rest of the slate:
Niners 27-7 Rams
All the talk was about each team's plan for going to Australia...so, the Niner travel plans were better?
Saints 30-31 (OT) Lions
Going for the W in OT, good for you, Saints. The Lions should've won bigger, no?
Jets 23-10 Titans
When was the last time the Jets won on the road? The Titans offense has another year of experimenting, I take it.
Ravens 41-23 Colts
I was in and out of this game, felt like the Ravens were doing whatever they wanted, Lamar looked good, the Colts just don't look elite in any way.
Falcons 13-20 Steelers
Meh, my gut feeling is these two squads both suck.
Bears 59-37 Panthers
Tons of points, but tells us nothing about either team. Is the Bears defense this bad? Is the Bears offense really this good? Do the Panthers just suck or did they get overwhelmed on opening day?
Browns 10-34 Jaguars
Yes, this looks right.
Bills 36-31 Texans
The right outcome? (As a Bills fan, I'll take it) (*)
Dolphins 13-27 Raiders
Feels right. I think the Raiders are gonna be one of those trick-or-treat teams that are actually pretty good every once in a while.
Commanders 22-24 Eagles
Division game. I still think the Eagles are the better side,
Cards 26-14 Chargers
Hmmmm....wtf? Okay, the Cards are (were) everyone's pick to be the worst (most inept) team in the league, while for the most part the Chargers are seen as a good team, probably a playoff team in the AFC. So....how do the Cards go to LA and lay a smackdown on a team that is supposed to be moving in the right direction up and down the organization? Is this the game we look back on throughout the season and scratch our heads or are the Chargers just all-round overrated? (Notice I didn't say anything about the Cards....no, they're gonna suck). How do we react to the pitiful performance from the Chargers?
Broncos 10-31 Chiefs
Expected a more competitive match but division games are always dicey.
(*) As a Bills fan I'm bummed to report that I got stuck with Colts-Ravens instead of Bill-Texans, which was obviously the high profile game of the time slot.
Honestly an almost flawless match from Zverev--and minimally flawed from Shelton! Shelton blew a serve early in the 1st, which Zverev held on to.
But then neither Zeverev nor Shelton blinked in the 2nd set. Zverev rather easily took the tie break but Shelton was still very much alive.
Zverev had one bad serve late in the 3rd set, which Shelton capitalized on.
But early in the 4th Shelton gave a break to Zverev, then flailed toward the end in a manner that seemingly caused Zverev to lose track of the score.
Not a lot to say on this match except that this shows the point-by-point nature of tennis: it looks like Zverev cruised or dominated but, not at all. Shelton was really good, he made a handful of mistakes, whereas Zverev really only had the one broken serve. Tennis is tough, man, these guys were actually super close but Zverev was nearly perfect. Zverev is really putting his stamp on the title of best of the post-Federer/Nadal/Djokovic era.
The only other US Open I caught was Tiafoe beating Medvedev. I like Tiafoe, hell of an athlete, but I always wondered if he was good at tennis, if he really had it in him to to take the next step against the top tier players. Well, from what I saw of his match against Medvedev, I believe Tiafoe can rise up. In fact, I'm surprised Shelton beat him in the semifinals.
The Buckeyes dominated the 1st half, but I thought it was Texas playing about as bad as they could possibly play. Fumbles, interceptions, blown tackles--Texas was absolutely abysmal out of the gate. Also, OSU WR's were making plays and UT's were not. But after halftime I thought the QB battle completely flipped: QB Sayin was vanilla at best and jumpy at worst, while QB Arch Manning settled in, saw the field and made plays. The Buckeyes had the game in hand and just couldn't get anything going in the 2nd half and when Texas went on their run, the Buckeyes wilted. The L looked worse than it was, I don't think Ohio State will get punished for this because they're good and they'll be fine; good W for Texas and the comeback will probably earn points throughout the season. Texas needed this more than Ohio State, I am confident both of these teams will still be around at the end of the season.
(12) Alabama 45-17 Kentucky
Well, it was competitive for a while (Wildcats up 17-13 at the half), but once Alabama got their defense going, that was it for Kentucky. Alabama was sluggish and sloppy early on, they didn't seem to have any plan on either side of the ball. Then around halfway through the 3rd quarter, Bama started using their LB's to blow up the line of scrimmage and Kentucky just backpedaled for the last 20 minutes or so. When Bama figured it out, they were by far the superior team, but until the light clicked on for them, they looked kinda helpless, they're gonna need to work on that. As for Kentucky, well, QB Mincy looked pretty good in the 1st half and I think they'll crush their cupcakes this season, but can they steal an upset in the SEC? (Eh, we'll see)
Old Dominion 21-44 Virginia Tech
I had to record this moment: ODU is at their own 20-ish yard line, QB gets sacked, ball comes out, VT scoops, gets to the end zone, TD; BUT....on replay the defender fumbled the ball (did anyone look at whether the QB actually fumbled? Look kinda tuck-rule-y to me) before crossing the goal line, fumble recovered by ODU, so ODU gets the ball at the 20 yard line. Next play, QB gets sacked, fumbles, VT scoops and scores. That's the magic of college football, folks!
Utah State is at Utah this week and I can't help thinking the Utes are going to slaughter USU, so what the hell was Washington doing here? At home, early in the season against a weaker opponent and the Huskies kinda farted around and had to scramble late to finish it. I dunno, man, this one don't look good.
Bad beat
(1) Ohio State (Ohio State 23-24 Texas)
The Buckeyes probably should've won but playing this game 10 times, this is probably the only outcome that would've looked like this. So...are the Buckeyes better than this? Or did Texas just rise up and steal a W? I dunno, I think Texas and Ohio State are both tippy-toppy teams and I don't think this outcome is all that shocking or worrying for either side. That said, it would've been a lot better if the Buckeyes had taken the victory (probably would've cemented them as the overall #1 for the rest of the season).
Not so good
(6) Oregon (Oregon 31-39 Oklahoma State)
I pointed out that Oregon was startlingly unimpressive last week and now they go on the road to flailing Oklahoma State and were never in the game. Not good. Oregon needs to get it together pronto.
(11) Oklahoma (Oklahoma 10-17 Michigan)
Michigan was wounded from their rather embarrassing gift of a victory against Western Michigan in Week 1, I get that they needed to have a big game against OU, but if OU is really a top 10 team, if their veteran QB is good enough to get big wins, then the Sooners should've fared better in this match. Frankly Oklahoma's offense looked pretty weak. @Michigan is not the hardest game on their schedule, I wasn't impressed with the Sooners last year, already out on them this year. Is Michigan a contender? Not as long as You Tube is filled with videos of that Western Michigan game. (*)
Next week's intriguing matches:
(22) Houston @ (13) Texas Tech (okay, two Texas gunslingers, should be fun)
(16) Southern Methodist @ (23) Louisville (okay, two solid mid-level teams going at it, should be a good one)
Utah State @ (17) Utah (Utah State almost pulled the shocker at Washington, can they pull it off at Utah? (My gut feeling is ah, haaail nooo!))
(7) Louisiana State @ (8) Mississippi (past Kiffin versus future Kiffin, I'm intrigued, this is clearly the game of the week)
(*) Yeah I said it: Michigan deserves to be ridiculed and laughed at all season long. Ain't trying to be a hater, just saying they didn't deserve the W and if they were actually given the L they deserve, then their whole season is totally different. If Michigan ends up as your 2027 NCAA football champion, that will be quite disappointing.
Didn't watch much of this, it didn't feel like North Texas was getting destroyed but on offense Indiana pretty much picked up where they left off last year: they were running, they were passing, they were making plays, they moved the ball at will. North Texas is not exactly Miami in the Orange Bowl but as opening day cupcakes go, they're a for real team and not used to getting pounded like this. So I was pretty impressed with the Hoosiers, we'll see how that defense looks against the upper echelon squads but the offense definitely looks like a good one.
Boise St 27-34 (2) Oregon
I dunno, maybe I'm overreacting, Oregon did what they needed to do to win and maybe Boise State is actually kinda good. But I was not blown away by the Ducks effort, especially at home, especially against a for-real rival. The offense looked sluggish, their QB did not look like the #1 pick in the draft and the running game sputtered more often than not. But they tightened the screws after halftime and were the better team down the stretch. I'm just sayin': they didn't look like the #2 team in the country. We'll see, the season has only just begun.
(24) Louisville 38-41 (9) Mississippi
Early on, it felt to me like Ole Miss was a good team that wasn't playing their best, while Louisville felt like an okay team playing as hard as they can. Ole Miss's better was better than Louisville best but Louisville had their moments, did what they needed to do on their last drive to knot up the game. But when Ole Miss had to win it, they did. Louisville might be good this year, they acquitted themselves nicely against a tough opening opponent. I really liked Ole Miss last year, wasn't sure how they'd fare after losing their coach to a rival and the off-season squabbles about eligibility, but that offense looks like it can hang and though the secondary looks suspect, the pass rush should be pretty good.
It just feel like Oregon could've put the hammer down a little sooner, could've played with more urgency from the jump, could've toyed with their rival rather than waiting to get their backs up to get it done.
(16) Michigan (Western Michigan 12-13 Michigan)
Oh man....I kinda feel sorry for the Wolverines. As long as Michigan hangs around this season, this game will follow them like a wet fart. They didn't deserve to win this game and they might've just been better off taking the L and looking in the mirror. Instead, they get to pretend like they won (they didn't really) and the world is going to point and laugh at them like internet freaks. Gonna be a long tough season in Ann Arbor.
I don't know what the trophy case at Western Michigan looks like, but I hope they add a giant poster of this image to it.
Bad beat
(24) Louisville (Louisville 38-41 Mississippi)
Louisville at times looked way outclassed by Ole Miss but at other times they made plays and kept it close; tough L but they covered as a dog, so good on them.
Next week's intriguing matches:
Arizona State @ (10) Texas A&M (an interesting non-conference match)
(11) Oklahoma @ Michigan (Obviously we're all wondering: how many extra seconds will it take for Michigan to beat Oklahoma? Hmmmm....my gut feeling is not enough time has passed since the big bang to make that happen)
(12) Alabama @ Kentucky (Bama hasn't exactly been Bama lately, UK might not be terrible this year, not predicting any upsets, but this is a more interesting than usual Wildcat conference match)
Arizona @ (15) Brigham Young (another early test to see how good some of these "good" teams actually are)
(1) Ohio State @ (4) Texas (well, now, here we go....)
Iowa State @ (21) Iowa (more fun regional test matches)
Spain dominated possession, got a PK, dominated possession some more, added another goal when the French defense fell asleep, dominated possession and then it was over. France had a coupla chances but never felt particularly dangerous, Spain just choked them out and when they got the first goal it was over, but when they got the second goal it was over. France had a great run in this Cup but Spain is their kryptonite, the only team really that could interrupt their attack and put them in a back sliding position. Disappointing for the French, seems like Coach Deschamps is on the way out (*), Mbappe is heading into wily veteran phase, but France still has a ton of young talent (Olise, Deue, Upmecano and Dembele should all be back for the next Cup) and Deschamps is as decorated a veteran in the history of French futbol, so no hard feelings.
Argentina 2-1 England
I simply don't understand bunkering in soccer when you have the talent to possess and attack. Don't you see that the way to run out clock in soccer is to possess the ball rather than building a wall in front of your goal? If you suck at soccer and you're up against a vastly better opponent, well, then parking the bus is probably your best shot in such a low scoring game. But England is one of the finest squads in the world, plenty of ball handling talent in the midfield, plenty of dangerous attackers up front--so make the other team play defense! Make them nervous! Make them backpedal! Why are you just sitting back and letting Argentina take batting practice on you? I just...I don't....what....
Well, it happened again: Argentina plays like slop for 80 minutes, falls behind, then in desperation picks apart the other team's backward-facing defense to steal the game late. In the 1st half, the teams were both very chippy, a lot of aggressive fouls and passive-aggressive foul-baiting that was, at times, kind of embarrassing to watch. These are two top flight teams, they should be playing soccer instead of trying to play the referee. So by halftime, not much had happened and it was a scoreless draw. Then England were able to find the goal on a header off a lovely cross into the box that the defender just couldn't get to. Now up 1-0, it felt like it was time for England to play loose and push forward, there was still plenty of time left, hunkering back didn't seem necessary or appropriate (or feasible). But England didn't really get much going in this game with or without the lead. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham both disappeared and the English never got forward or possessed much. They played too emotional in the 1st half and without much thought in the 2nd.
Well, after 40 solid minutes of Messi probing the English back line, the Argentines tied the game up. Then a few minutes later, Messi connected on a cross to steal the victory. Meanwhile, the English just sorta stood there. To be fair, England kinda sucked the whole time, its not like scoring the goal changed anything up for them. But they allowed Argentina to possess in front of them for so much of the game, it's kinda surprising England were able to steal the lead at all. But once they did, you can tell they just thought the game was over. Anyway, England has been in a nice place the last few years, it'd be easy to say they're moving in the right direction but will Germany, Italy and Netherlands suck forever? (spoiler alert: I doubt it) The English better get their shit together because this good run won't last forever.
3rd Place Game
England 6-4 France
Whoa! What a game! Easily the funnest game of this Cup--I'd be shocked and amazed if the Final was half this good! That said, the 1st half was actually rather lackluster. Before England's first goal (in the 3rd minute), I already noted that the French just didn't look up for this match. England was playing loose and fun, the French looked like they all had hangovers (**); France was playing like a college football team that had been in the top 10 all season, fucked up late and found themselves in the Gator Bowl instead of the big game. England scored quickly (he had an opportunity, took a long rip, it was well placed, the keeper was cooked), then followed pretty soon after with another goal off a corner kick. I felt bad for the French goalie: he's had a pretty damn good tournament but his defenders on this day left him out to dry. The third goal was a bit of Keystone Kops stuff, but the initial outlet pass was a beauty and the way the English strikers stayed with the play was impressive, drawing the keeper out of position, then toying with the hapless defenders. A 4th goal before halftime was embarrassing but, if you were paying attention, those last two English goals came from France pushing too far ahead--so at least France woke up and was trying to get into the game. England was up 4-0 at the half but I had a feeling that France would be coming back. I envisioned a 4-3 scoreline in the 85th minute guaranteeing a furious finish. Well, I was sorta right: the 4-3 scoreline came in the 65th minute, which allowed for a lot more craziness.
France came out balling after halftime and just ran the English out of the stadium for 20 minutes. My god, if Olise could shoot worth a shit, man, France might've scored 10 goals! Just as France were back in it, they gave up a penalty (right call, defender really shouldn't have gone down like that) and the score was 5-3. But France kept attacking, made it 5-4 and it felt like the furious finish was gonna come after all. But Bellingham finished the scoring with a nasty piece of bag work and finished the game off. It was kinda fun watching the English take it to the French, just as fun watching the France take it back at 'em. (If England had played half this frisky against Argentina, they'd be playing today instead of yesterday!) Fun match.
Final
Spain v Argentina
This is reminding me of the Ladies' French Open Final we just had: Chwalinska was a qualifier that made her way to the Final, not so much by outplaying her opponents as simply mesmerizing them; Andreeva, a top ten talent on the way up, failed to be mesmerized and just smooshed her like a bug, even though Chwalisnka had been on an amazing heater. Yeah...yeah: Argentina hasn't been beating teams, they've been mesmerizing them, the other team get the goal they need, then they're star struck by Messi, they're ball watching rather than playing and before they know it, their lunch money is gone and they don't even know what happened. Messi inspires the best out of people, then forces them to play different once they've taken the lead. Can he do it against Spain?
In a word: no. They are not going to be mesmerized or put off their game plan. Spain only plays one way. Whether they're ahead or behind, they only play one way. Whether its the opening bell or time is running out, they only play one way. Whether Messi is on the other team or not, they only play one way. I have no doubt Spain will dominate the time of possession. The question is can Spain score? If they can steal the lead, it'll be tough for Argentina to get it back. As we're seen, it takes Messi really until the very end of the match to put his observations into action and only then after a prolonged period of probing the defense. But Spain won't give him that time to probe or experiment. Argentina needs to get a penalty or close direct kick or create chaos out of corner kicks; in short, Argentina's best chance to score is on set plays rather than the run of play. Also, I think the longer game goes, I think that just gives Argentina more opportunities to steal a goal and/or more time to probe for the Spanish defense weaknesses
I worried Spain wouldn't score against France but they got a penalty and a rebound goal (***) and they were in control throughout. If they can do that against Argentina, then I think this game is over quick and possibly even rather dull (depending on how furious the Argentines can make it down the stretch). Spain (like Andreeva in the French Open example) just plays their game, the opponent's highs and lows don't much matter. If Argentina scores, Spain will just keep plugging along, maybe they regain the lead, maybe they don't, but either way they're not going to panic, they're not going to fall apart. That cohesive style is Spain's greatest strength and I think it will carry them to trophy presentation. As for Argentina, they've played with moxy and Messi is still an all-timer, but I think they're out of gas and unless they come up with a shocker of a goal (preferably as early in the match as possible), then I just don't think they outscore Spain.
I've been picking against Argentina the whole way and I've been getting wrong the whole time. But this pick isn't about Argentina, it's about Spain. And, yeah, that's the point.
(*) I recommended years ago that USA soccer go get Deschamps. I think I still think that. I don't dislike Coach Pochittino, but I suspect that the problems behind the scenes of Team USA are not talent or tactics but personalities (re: it seems like they all hate each other). Personality clashes aren't a killer to a team, they just require a certain finesse. Deschamps has spent a lifetime dealing with bigger-than-life personalities (I remember when Eric Cantona called Deschamps "the water boy" back in the day, but Deschamps went on to a lot more glory than Cantona ever got!), is he the right guy to knock some heads together in the USA locker room? I dunno, but I suspect he might have a better shot at it than Coach Poch. And why hasn't Pochettino made his decision yet on whether to to return? He's probably waiting for other jobs to come open--and Team USA is probably waiting for other coaches to come available. Well....here he is.
(**) The beer sweats. Well, they're French, so...the wine sweats?
(***) Hmmm....have you noticed that a lot of Spain's goals come from rebounds? 'Sup wit dat?
Morocco blocked up France pretty well, but once Mbappe found the goal (sweet rip!) and then Dembele followed soon after (sneaky touch!), that was it for Morocco. They had the right idea and both of the goals were really nice, so they held on as best they could, but it never felt like they were going to score, so they had to get to PK's to make it work. Outside of that 8-or-so minute stretch, Morocco was hanging.
Spain 2-1 Belgium
Worth noting that both of Spain's goals were off sloppy rebounds, as dominant as their possession is and as much as we want to anoint Yamal as the next super stud, their goal scoring is shaky at best. Belgium was savvy enough to keep it close, get the first goal back, perhaps if their goalkeeper hadn't gone out for injury, maybe they survive into overtime. But it wasn't to be, Spain was too good at keeping Belgium out of any offensive rhythm and got enough luck to move on.
England 2-1 (OT) Norway
Strange game. Neither Harry Kane (England) nor Erleng Haaland (Norway), two of the bust out stars of this Cup, did much of anything in this match. Norway took the lead on a sweet sneaky strike--Norway's achilles' heel in this match was using Haaland as a decoy rather than a for-real target and though it got the their first goal, it didn't get them any more than that. But Jude Bellingham had a moment of brilliance to bring the score back level. Norway's lethargic offense was on display for the first 20 minutes or so, but after the hydration break, they went balls to the wall for about the next 60 minutes. But the Miami heat just kinda wore them down and when Bellingham stuck in a rebound in the extra frame, it felt like the dagger. Both teams were dragging hard by the end. Norway had a good run, Haaland was definitely one of this year's stand-outs, but their offense was just too creaky to get any further than this.
Argentina 3-1 (OT) Switzerland
Argentina stole the lead early on a header in the first 10 minutes, my immediate thought was "okay, this game ends one nothing." And it felt like that for the rest of the 1st half. But Switzerland equalized after halftime, pretty quickly followed by a screwy red card: Swiss had the ball, appeared to be fouled by the Argentine defender, ref gives Argentine a yellow card, replay shows that Swiss guy flopped, so the ref--because he gave out an initial yellow--felt the need to give the flopper a yellow, which was the dude's second and he got tossed. So, look, it was a pretty ordinary looking foul, I didn't think it warranted a yellow card, but when he flipped his call, now he had to give the other guy, which was even less warranted. This basically forced the Swiss to bunker and counter, which they otherwise probably wouldn't have done. Argentina was totally uninspiring for 90 minutes but when Alvarez had an opening, he drilled it (*). They added another as the Swiss went into sell out mode. Argentina is just lolling along, I don't understand how they've been able to get this far, even Messi is starting to slow down and this team just isn't that impressive.
Semifinals
Spain - France
Okay, Spain, it's Yamal time! I have no doubt that Spain can hang with France, but if they're gonna beat France they're going to have to score--probably more than once! And Yamal is the only one with that level of danger. Spain can stifle the French, they can make the French work, they can dodge and parry and counter, but to win they're gonna need goals, because France just needs a minute to light up the scoreboard. If this gets to OT, I think that favors France; if it gets to PKs, that probably still favors France. Spain needs to win it in regulation and that requires keeping France at bey (which they can do) and putting the ball in the net (which....I don't know if they can do that). I can totally see a game where Spain dominates possession for 85 minutes and loses 2-0. Again, France has too many advantages for Spain to keep up with. Gotta go with France.
Argentina - England
Argentina has been the most frustrating side to watch in this Cup. Outside of Messi being Messi, this team is so unimpressive, they're so not particularly good at anything, they're so lucky in the front and the back. I know they have pedigree, they're loaded with int'l talent and yet, outside of Messi, they're not interesting to watch and they don't seem reliable in any way. England is dangerous up front, just good enough in the back, but can they control the midfield against Argentina? I think they can and I think they have more all-round scoring punch than Argentina. Gotta go with England.
(*) I knew it was in before he took the shot. Needed the right touch but he had the opening and he nailed it. Hell of a shot.
Paraguay played good defense, sludged the game up and hung as best as they could, but France got their PK (meh, felt harmless live but on replay there was contact, so I understand the call) and that was all it took. The danger of bunkering is the penalty and Paraguay wasn't able to avoid it. France played their least inspiring game of the tourney so far but they did what they needed to do and got the W.
Morocco 3-0 Canada
Canada kinda dominated the attack for about 20 minutes, then Morocco got going and Canada never really got back into the game. Canada is not particularly good at soccer (sorry, its just true) and making the round of 16 is a great result for them. They played hard, had some moments and built up something like a resume going forward. But Morocco was the better team, deeper and more talented, and once the scoring came, they were by far the better team.
Norway 2-1 Brazil
Kinda weird game: I thought Norway's offense was the most boring I've seen in years, dudes just standing around--this is what people who hate soccer think that soccer is! But they were able to connect to Haaland in the box (*) for a classic Haaland goal and then added another blistering rip from Haaland after that (**) to rub it in. Throw in that Brazil's defense was not aggressive and their ball control never appeared, that their one goal was a late PK that was a bit of a fluke and its another disappointing Brazil performance. Look, Brazil still has--and always has!--the most on-ball talent, but they don't play as a team, they don't have any cohesiveness and we are past the point where just being casually talented translates to easy W's. Imagine an orchestra with 15 really great violinists and no conductor: talent alone doesn't equal fidelity to the composition. Norway plays weird but they keep getting it done because Haaland is just that good.
England 3-2 Mexico
England's first goal was a good finish off a lovely pass from a build up that perfectly stretched the defense to its limit; the keeper was cooked, nobody did anything wrong, the attack was letter perfect. But then the Mexicans clearly broke down because England was able to come right back down and add another--that was the defense collapsing, presumably from arguing with each other. The first goal was unfortunate but the second goal was unforgivable and a killer for Mexico. Honestly other than those few minutes Mexico was at least equal to England and probably better. But....that's all it took to knock them out. Also, for all the talk of the heat and the altitude, it was the Mexicans that looked gassed by the end of the match. England got their lead and weathered the storm and they're moving on.
Spain 1-0 Portugal
On the one hand: crushingly dull game; on the other hand: classic Spain. Spain maintained possession but never looked dangerous around the goal, until that one moment when Portugal took their eye off the ball (probably preparing for overtime) and that was that. Spain at their peak in the Iniesta years possessed and possessed and possessed and were good enough goal scorers to make the possession stand up; now they've still got the possession offense but there's even less goal scoring than the great years, so Spain is good enough to hang with most anyone, but I don't have nearly the faith that they can/will win games. Portugal is finally ready to move on to the next chapter of their development and it is probably for the best.
Belgium 4-1 USA
Well....that sucked. US looked tentative, the passes were soft, there was no aggression on defense, no plan on offense, and just in general nobody showed up (Berhalter off the bench at least played with some energy). Some of the commentary post-game suggested that Belgium was more talented or had a better plan, but I didn't really think so. Belgium's up-the-middle defense was quite good, kept USA from moving forward at all. Other than that, nah, dude USA just sucked. First goal was bad defense, second goal was weakness on the wing, third goal was straight up giveaway by the keeper (wtf was he doing?), fourth goal was bad giveaway in the back (wtf was he doing?). Don't want to diss Belgium, they did what they needed to do and were clearly in control throughout and are moving on. But, nah, dude, USA sucked. Embarrassing performance and I saw that it was the highest rated non-NFL sports event in decades, so....everyone got to see USA play their worst game in years. Not good, USA, you had everything working in your favor and you didn't show up. As for Belgium, again, hats off but I'm still not sold on this squad.
Argentina 3-2 Egypt
Boo! I'd love to hail Argentina's superior athleticism on their comeback but, frankly, they mostly sucked for 80 minutes and then got lucky down the stretch. I was so much more excited about Egypt advancing than I was about an Argentina comeback that even when the comeback came, I was bummed by the result. As for Argentina, Messi is still balling (though he missed another PK) but I still don't see it with the rest of the team.
Switzerland 0-0 (PKs) Colombia
Evenly matched, back and forth, but neither side took any control at all, so a rather dull game. Hard to say which team was better, Colombia might've had some more spicy individual talent but Switzerland had a clearer team concept and they struggled their way through. I dunno, I guess that sorta works.
Quarterfinals
France - Morocco
France feels like the best team, the deepest team, but so far they've played rather casually and it has worked. Not sure that is gonna work any more, they're gonna need to step up. Morocco is one of those rugged sides that doesn't look dangerous but they work hard, they don't slough off, they're gonna be a pain in the ass for 90 (or 120) minutes. I think this will be an exciting match and I think it goes to PKs, which probably benefits the French. I'll take France.
Spain - Belgium
This best Belgium has played so far was against USA, where they successfully kept the Americans from holding possession or pushing forward particularly up the middle. Spain ain't gonna be bothered by that. So Belgium's momentum won't last long. But, can Spain score goals? Yeah, this match could go late, but I don't think it gets to PKs: if Spain doesn't figure out how to finish, then Belgium probably will. I'll take Spain.
Norway - England
Both teams are playing really well right now, this'll be a classic. Norway plays a dull brand of offense but if they can find Haaland in the middle often enough, they can get the goals they need, and then sag the defense. England has big play possibility, they can meander for a while then break a big play. This is good match, this is gonna be a fun one. If this gets to PKs, then it could be one of the all-timers. I think the English have a wider palette of offensive options. I'll go with England.
Argentina - Switzerland
Two teams that have bored me for completely opposite reasons: I'm just tired of watching the Argentines get lucky and I'm tired of watching the Swiss just hang around. Framing these teams in this context suggests that this will go late, doesn't it? I can definitely over time here, maybe PKs, as well, which would favor Argentina, right? I'll take Argentina.
(*) The first goal reminded me of Anthony Davis back in his Kentucky days: throw the ball toward the basket and this kid'll just dunk it.
(**) The second goal was classic Nolan Ryan heat: here's a fast ball right down the middle, good luck.
(***) Last night as I went to bed, I felt a bit of a headache, bit of upset in the stomach, like a cold coming on. Woke up this morning feeling just fine and outside of the weird headache before bed, I couldn't think of anything else out of the ordinary that happened the day before. Dude...did I have physical withdrawal from not watching soccer yesterday? Been a great Cup, but I'd hate to think its affecting my well-being.
Canada so far has tied Bosnia, destroyed Qatar, lost to Switzerland and beat South Africa; Morocco has tied Brazil, beat Scotland, Haiti and Netherlands. Canada is a so-so squad--which is better than they've ever been! So far they've had two uninspiring W's, an uninspiring draw and a deflating L. Morocco, on the other hand, stared down the Netherlands, went toe-to-toe with Brazil and breezed through the teams they should've beaten. Canada is another team that Morocco should beat. I got Morocco.
Paraguay - France
Paraguay got whipped by USA, beat Turkey, tied Australia and survived Germany; France destroyed Senegal, Iraq, Norway and Sweden. Paraguay bounced back well from an opening shellacking by the host country and everyone is duly impressed that they survived a knockout stage match up with mighty Germany (who hasn't looked mighty for a while now). But France is dusting people off without much effort and frankly hasn't come close to playing their best soccer yet. Paraguay beating France would be a much bigger upset then beating Germany (*) and I just don't think they have it in them. I got France.
Brazil - Norway
Brazil tied Morocco, breezed through Scotland and Haiti and bested Japan; Norway destroyed Iraq, beat Senegal, got pummeled by France, then beat Ivory Coast. Norway is led by Erling Haaland, a young scorer in his prime, that has been finishing like a champ at this tourney. I thought Senegal and Ivory Coast were pretty good teams and I value Norway's wins in both, and as for stumbling to France, well, sometimes you get so used to fearing someone that you just roll over. Does Norway fear Brazil? They shouldn't. Brazil has had a rather easy run so far and I think Norway can sting them. We'll see but I think this one goes to over time and if it goes to PKs, anything can happen. I'll take Norway.
Mexico - England
Mexico has beat South Africa, South Korea, Czechia and Ecuador; England beat Croatia, tied Ghana, then beat Panama and Congo. Mexico's offense is really good right now, they are all on the same page and they are gonna be a tough out. As for England, I dunno, man, outside of Harry Kane (the man), I haven't been overwhelmed by the English so far. They're supposed to be a top tier squad but outside of Kane, I haven't felt that at all. Mexico is the home country and they are hot as a urinary infection right now. I'm going Mexico.
Portugal - Spain
Portugal tied Congo, blistered Uzbekistan, had a scoreless draw with Colombia, and snuck by Croatia (probably should've gone to PKs, which is a coin flip); Spain opened with a scoreless draw with Cape Verde (everyone's 2nd favorite team at the 2026 World Cup!), pummeled Saudi Arabia, beat Uruguay and easily handled Austria in the knockout. Every Cup features a team that was really good last time around that returns intact and shows the fact that they're too old now...Portugal is this year's version of that. Yeah, they're okay, they've got veteran savvy and Ronaldo is still a great (eh, pretty good) player. But I just don't have any faith in this squad at all. Spain has a lot of nice young talent that hasn't really done anything yet. That said, I still think Spain is the much better, deeper squad. Gotta go with Spain.
USA - Belgium
USA thrashed Paraguay, easily handled Australia, had a tricky time with Turkey (half fun/half frustrating match), but pretty easily handled Bosnia and Herzegovina in the knockout; Belgium tied with the surprisingly frisky Egypt, tied with the unsurprisingly not frisky Iran, laid a smackdown on New Zealand, then got astoundingly lucky against Senegal (a fluky late goal, then a questionable (**) penalty in OT). Remember how I just said that Portugal was the past-their-prime squad? Its also Belgium. This team never reached its full potential and I think the "full" potential is actually already out of reach. Can they beat the upstart Americans? Yeah, they've got veteran moxy, but this is the best American team of all time (***) and they're the host country. In short: I ain't afraid of no fuckin' Belgium! USA, USA, USA!
Argentina - Egypt
Argentina stomped Algeria, easily handled Austria and Jordan, then hung on for dear life against Cape Verde (everyone's 2nd favorite team!) in a classic; Egypt tied Belgium, thrashed New Zealand, tied Iran and got past Australia on PKs. Egypt is a serviceable batch of professionals with a bit of scoring potential up front but nothing really scary otherwise; in short, a run to the Sweet 16 in a nice tourney for them, from here it would require an all time upset. Can they do it? Well, Messi has been amazing (tied for the Golden Boot with Mbappe right now), but to be honest, I have not been overwhelmed by the rest of the squad. Messi is a weird player in that he adds so little on defense and yet is still putting points on the board, you have to defer to him even if he's being a drag (or maybe the other way around: this whole team is a drag and Messi is the lipstick on this pig). And that's where we are: this ought to be an easy Argentina victory, right? A walkover? And yet, I think Egypt can totally hang, would not be shocked if they scored early and took this to the wire. But at the end of the day, Argentina has guaranteed firepower, gotta go with Messi to figure it out. I got Argentina.
Switzerland - Colombia
Switzerland opened with a draw of Qatar, laid the smackdown on Bosnia and Herzegovina, outlasted Canada, then breezed past Algeria in the knockout; Colombia beat Uzbekistan, Congo, had a scoreless draw with Portugal, then sneaked past Ghana in the knockout. Tough one. On the hand, Switzerland has some nice confident wins while Colombia looks shakier; and yet I think I'm more impressed with Colombia's opponents rather than Switzerland's. Switzerland seems younger and more athletic, but Colombia has wily veterans. My gut feeling is Colombia but I'm not sure why I think that. So, I dunno, I'm going with Colombia.
I've already made deeper predictions, but I'll wait til the next round to update them here. (Spoiler alert: I like Mexico a lot, we'll see if I still do in the next post)
(*) Not only did Paraguay beat Germany, they actually let Germany back into the game and then beat them again. That was pretty cold blooded.
(**) Yeah I said it. Look, the soccer world is still relatively new to video replay, as an American (that has long detested replay across virtually all sports) I've watched it for a while now and I'm telling ya: video is not same all-knowing perfection device. Okay, here's a homemade analysis video (that I don't really much agree with):
Neither player possesses the ball, why do we automatically favor the offensive player over the defensive player? The video suggests that Belgium was nearest the ball, that Senegal kicked his foot, but what if Senegal is actually there first and Belgium is stepping on his foot? We're reflexively blaming the defender when he has just as much right to reach for the ball as the attacker. Why isn't the defender allowed to reach for possession just like the attacker? Their feet both meet at the same time in the same place, why should we favor either player? I would've called it even and let it play. (And perhaps that's why I'm a blogger instead of a guy with a real life)
(***) Best American team of all time? Oh yeah! Quite easily! Even if Pulisic isn't playing, this is still the best team USA has ever fielded by a long shot. The 2006 team was special but not as good as this squad.
Been a while but just wanted to remind myself how f'n amazing Jalen Brunson was all through the playoffs this season. OG Anunoby, too, was letter perfect, did everything asked of him and made the tip in basket in Game Four that will cement his legend status in Manhattan for the rest of his days. Karl-Anthony Towns was really great in the first two games, then reverted back to dipshit Towns for the rest of the series but was still good enough/not damaging enough to make a worthy contribution. Mikael Bridges and Josh Hart were both up and down throughout the playoffs but were great teammates and made the plays needed of them. Landry Shamet and Mitchell Robinson were useful off the bench (Deuce McBride, not so much) and both (have already gotten) new contracts for next year.
As for the Spurs, I thought Coach Mitch Johnson did not have a good series, PG De'Aaron Fox struggled through injuries and just never found his game, 6th Man of the Year Keldon Johnson did not much in the series either, Julian Champagnie was up and down, thought he was better throughout the Western run but spotty at best in the Final. Wembenyama was good but not quite spectacular, Stephon Castle was pretty great except for his bouts of foul trouble, Dylan Harper shined out (though I think the perception that he was ready to take over the team was greatly exaggerated!), Devin Vassell was good but wasn't able to stop Brunson.
Basically all 5 games were the same: the Spurs would jump out to an early lead, Knicks would get it close by halftime; Spurs would jump back early in the 3rd and then the Knicks would dominate the 4th quarter. Only in Game Three (what Knicks fans will simply remember as "The Trump Game") were the Spurs able to score enough in the 4th to hold off the late Knicks charge. In the other four games, they weren't and Brunson owned them.
Where do they go from here? The Spurs are fine, they don't need to change anything. Another year of maturation (*) and a rematch with OKC are what they need to do next year. Everyone wants to trade Fox, and while that contract is daunting (and will have to be traded eventually), I think Fox is still in his prime and had a high ankle sprain in the playoffs, I think he's fine and can lead them deep into the playoffs again. Keldon Johnson was disappointing in the Finals but he's kinda perfect for this team, so I don't see a better replacement out there. This team is fine, no bold moves are necessary.
The Knicks had a uniquely soft run through the playoffs. I'm not saying they suck, I'm not saying they didn't deserve their championship--I'm just saying they got to run through the Sixers and the Cavs instead of grinding through the Celtics and Pistons. I think they would've beaten the Celtics and the Pistons but they would've had to work a lot harder. Making it to the Final in complete health is the main reason they won, I would say, and it's almost unimaginable that that could happen again next year. Will the Knicks repeat in the East? Not impossible, they are a hell of a squad, they will surely be in the mix, but I doubt it because the run, the health, they had this year was just too perfect to recreate.
But one last capper on the season: Jalen Brunson is the mother'f'n man and don't forget it.
(*) All year long the Spurs kept Wemby on a minutes limit and, well, they made the Finals. Personally, I'd keep his minutes low for another year, ramping up his minutes starting in March. Why not? No need to burn him out. The challenge in the west is the Thunder and staying healthy and....not much else. The plan worked better than expected this year, I'd give it another year before really throwing Wemby into the deep end.
Chwalinska was the talk of the tourney, a qualifier who managed to fustigate everyone she played all the way to the Final. Her gimmick is that she's really good at taking the speed out of the ball, controlling the pace to give herself the best opportunities to find winners. But I had a feeling this strategy wasn't gonna work against Andreeva (indeed, this is one of most predictable matches I've seen in ages). Why? Because well....(to say this about a boy is pure compliment, but about a girl, it feels kinda icky, but)...Andreeva's young and dumb. She didn't realize she was supposed to be hypnotized by Chwalinska's magic, so she just pummeled her instead. Along the way everyone was treating Chwalinksa like a puzzle to be solved, but I figured Andreeva was only going to see her as a less talented competitor (which she is) and would steamroll over her (which she pretty much did). It did take Andreeva a coupla games early on to get the feel of the match but once she found her legs, it was over, Chwalinska had no answer for Andreeva's control and power.
Worth mentioning: (1) Sabalenka is still the best...until she flames out. Here she flamed out in the quarters to (25) Shnaider, who is a nice player, but there's no reason that she should bagel Sabalenka in the 3rd set, except that Sabalenka bageled herself. Shnaider then went on to get hypnotized by Chwalinska in the semis. (*) Would Sabalenka have beaten Chwalinska and then Andreeva? Well, as long as she didn't flame out, I think she would have. Point being: only Sabalenka can beat Sabalenka right now (she dispatched (16) Osaka in the 4th round without much effort), so she's gotta be the fave for Wimbledon. But I was impressed with Andreeva and I think she went up a level, so I'll be keeping an eye on her.
(10) Cobolli 1/6/4/7/1 - 6/4/6/6/6 (2) Zverev
I thought Cobolli and Zverev were the two best players throughout the tourney, thought Zverev was the only one that could beat Cobolli after watching Cobolli destroy the American (18) Tien, who just couldn't do anything against him. To be fair, it did feel like Cobolli was playing the best tennis of his life, but he looked quite comfortable on the red clay and even got a freebie in the semis when Arnaldi retired without firing a shot. The story of the tourney besides the finalists was the wrist injury that forced Alcaraz to withdraw before the tourney began and the early upsets that knocked out (1) Sinner and (3) Djokovic, who must've thought they'd be seeing each other after Alcaraz disappeared, but neither of them made it too far.
As for the Final itself, Cobolli started slow, then recovered nicely in the 2nd set. I thought Cobolli would take the 3rd, too, but Zverev got the break and made it stick. Cobolli was up a break through most of the 4th set, but couldn't hold it, then went down early in the tiebreak, but rallied and finished it out (after a heartbreaking whiff on Set Point #1). Felt like Cobolli was on a roll, but not so much. He failed to ride the momentum and Zverev finished off the 5th set rather easily. Cobolli made a game of it and had a hell of a tourney, but Zverev's length and power were too much to overcome and it led to his first Grand Slam. Good run for Cobolli, great win for Zverev. (**)
(*) In the quarters, Chwalinska beat (22) Kalinskaya and I swear you could see the wheels turning in Kalinskaya's head: you could tell she was saying to herself 'I'm better than this chick, why can't I beat her!' Shnaider, too, in the semis was a ball of frustration. Chwalinska's mesmerism was on point but I think it was uniquely suited to Roland Garros, I don't see her being a factor in Wimbledon or the US.
(**) I believe Alcaraz has already withdrawn from Wimbledon, too, so Zverev might be coming in as the popular favorite. Curious to see if Cobolli can keep it going on grass. Keep an eye on (26) Mensik, who lost to Zverev in the semis, and (28) Fonseca, who looks ready to make a leap. And will Sinner, Shelton and Djokovic be ready after bowing out early in Roland Garros?
Just wanted to record my wild overaction to this result: the Knicks can sweep! (*) Everything that just happened in Game One can happen again and again and again.
I thought the key for the Spurs was Fox, but now I think it's Castle. If Bridges, Hart and Anunoby lock down Castle then that puts too much on Fox, Harper and Vassell to keep up with. If I were the Knicks, I'd let Wemby do whatever he wants--he can't carry the team. The Knicks supporting cast is better and they've been on a roll for a while now. The Spurs don't match up well with the Knicks (as opposed to the Thunder, with whom the Spurs match up well), the Knicks have hungry veterans to smother the Spurs' youth. Towns can score on Wemby and the Spurs have nothing to stop or counter Brunson's magic. I thought it would be a competitive series but after one game, I no longer think that.
Am I being crazy? We'll see after Game Two tonight.
(*) If the Knicks finish on a 15 game winning streak, with a playoff record of 16-2 (two fluky buzzer beater losses), then the Knick-heads would be right: that'd be one of the great squads of the 21st century!
Game One saw the Cavs pretty well stomp their way through NY for 3.5 quarters and then....well, they just stopped. The Cavs had a 22 point lead with 7 minutes to go and then Donovan Mitchell disappeared and their offense became a nightmare of James Harden dribbling dribbling dribbling and then taking a bad shot, while everyone watching kept wondering why Coach Atkinson never called a time out. Jalen Brunson woke up, went off and frankly the Cavs were lucky to tie it up and take it to OT--where they continued to suck.
That was it for the Cavs. The next three games weren't even worth playing, the Knicks picked back up the heater they went on against the Hawks and Sixers and just smooshed the Cavs. Knicks fans are ecstatic, Cavs fans are still hitting the Pepto.
Where do the Cavs go? Well, considering that James Harden is the one they're probably most stuck with even though he's the one they ought to be finding a new home for, there's probably not much for the Cavs to do. The one that will get dumped is Jarrett Allen but he's the least expensive of their core and against the Pistons I thought he finally found his niche next to Evan Mobley. Bbut he's the one I most expect to see in a new uni next season. I dunno, man, I don't see the Cavs being better next year, whereas the Pacers and Hawks should be much better, the Heat seem primed for a big move, the Hornet are finally moving in the right direction and the Wizards shouldn't suck, so there's some urgency for the Cavs to at least maintain what they've got. Feels like this version of the Cavs peaked this year.
West
Spurs over Thunder in 7
Game One was a classic, Game Seven was a classic, the other five games were just kinda watchable. Its easy to say the Spurs have arrived, but considering the Thunder were largely without Jalen Williams and Ajah Mitchell and that Chet Holmgren played as bad as he's probably ever played in his life, the Thunder were still in Game Seven with a coupla minutes to go. The Thunder were actually pretty bad and still could've won, so I don't think this rivalry is done--indeed, I'd be kinda shocked if anyone other than the Spurs and Thunder made the Conference Finals in the next 3 years.
Meanwhile, the Spurs perfectly rounded into shape: Fox was finally really good, Dillon Harper was excellent, Stephon Castle was pretty fuckin' great, Devin Vassell did a little bit of everything, Wemby was Wemby--and they still needed a (now) legendary chase down block by Luke Kornet to preserve the W. (*)
This series was much closer than it looked. If I was OKC, I'd sign Cason Wallace, let go of Lu Dort, see if I could package their two 1st rounders to move up in the draft, think long and hard about bringing back Hartenstein, and roll the dice with Tomas Sorber and Nikola Topic in the rotation next year. Again, the Thunder were as bad as they've been in a while in this series and they still had their chance to win it. This Thunder run is far from over and I don't think desperate measures are necessary just yet.
Finals
Knicks @ Spurs
This Spurs run has been about them figuring out their opponents: the Blazers stole a game from them, then the Spurs shut them down; the Wolves had moments against Wemby but once the Spurs got their number, it was over; the Thunder were pesky but the Spurs won the two classic games and outside of a strange letdown in Game Three, were generally the better team. I still say this is De'Aaron Fox's team and when he's right, that is peak Spurs. They're good around him, they're good without him, but he keeps them focused and moving forward, Fox is the key to this team.
Wemby is Wemby. He's still young and he hasn't really yet built up to this level of play, but he's really good right now and a virtually impossible match up for every team in the league. Castle is turning into a star, so is Harper. Vassell and Bryant are solid contributors and Kornet and Harrison Barnes are still valuable to this young team.
The Knicks were a nice--not great--team all season long. Then after going down 2-1 to the Hawks in the 1st round, the switch got flipped and they have pummeled everyone and everything ever since. One can point out that they didn't have to play the Celtics or Pistons in their run through the East, but if the Knicks were playing like this, I can confidently say they would've pummeled the Pistons and the Celtics. The Celtics were begging to lose and the Pistons were just too one-dimensional, neither of them would've given the Knicks much of a game, I'd say.
Yes, the Spurs have faced superior competition than the Knicks have so far, but that doesn't matter now. Furthermore, the Blazers--even at their best--weren't as good as the Spurs this year; the Wolves were forced to give big minutes to Mike Conley after Donte Divincenzo got hurt and the Thunder were without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, which severely limited their offense. The Spurs' opponents had their flaws, too, so the path to the Final is not that meaningful to me this year.
The Spurs didn't play anyone as offensively dynamic as the Knicks, nor anyone with the swagger (whether deserved or not) of the Knicks. The Knicks are playing better than the Thunder right now and the Spurs didn't exactly run the Thunder out of the gym.
I still say the Knicks are at their best when Towns is the offensive focus, but there's no way that'll work for 7 games. But I think they can get 2 Towns games and 2 Brunson games and win it all. Anunoby has been great all post-season, Mikal Bridges took a while to get going but he was great against the Cavs, Josh Hart isn't gonna quit and he is guaranteed to make a handful of big plays in this series and if they can get anything out of Landry Shamet, they could run up the score if the Spurs give a listless performance. The Knicks will really need Mitchell Robinsn, for at least 4-5 games, if they get that, the Knicks will be the better team.
Wemby is great but at this point he is still additive, not a cornerstone. Castle and Harper, too, are additive, I don't see either of them taking over games at this level. Fox has to outplay Towns and/or Brunson for 4 games and while that is possible, it is a tough ask.
I think the Knicks are ready for this, while the Spurs are on house money. I got the Knicks in 6.
(*) Oh, and Carter Bryant looks like another badass in waiting.
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