NBA: Rookie of the Year

The ROY pool seems to be about 50 guys:

23 rookies have already debuted (*): (2011 draft) Nikola Mirotic, Bojan Bogdanovich, (2012) Kostas Papanicklaou, (2013) Nerlens Noel and (2014) Jabari Parker, Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton, Nik Stauskas, Doug McDermott, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins, KJ McDaniels, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, Shabazz Napier, Dante Exum, Jusuf Nurkic, Tyler Ennis, Cory Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cleanthony Early, Zach Lavine, Cameron Bairstow.

I came up with 14 more I expect to see this year: Joel Embiid (maybe), Noah Vonleh, TJ Warren, Adrein Payne, James Young, Gary Harris, Mitch McGary, Jordan Adams, PJ Hairston, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O'Bryant, Jerami Grant, Nick Johnson.

Throw in 12 more off my radar, maybe a foreign draftee appears on American shores, maybe an undrafted free agent breaks through and gets some PT, and we'll round the number of ROY candidates to 50 guys.

I think a good measure of a rookie season is minutes per game (MPG): how much did the team rely on this rookie to contribute?  You'd like to maximize that contribution (points, assists, PER, defensive efficiency, eye test) but if the team still has faith in a guy despite a so-so statistical year (a la Ben McLemore (Kings) last year), I think that carries weight.  MPG as opposed to simple minutes because injuries and chemistry might limit playing time for stretches at a time.

I think the order for rookie MPG will be: Nerlens Noel, Jabari Parker, Elfrid Payton, Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, Bojan Bogdanovich, Jusuf Nurkic, Dante Exum, McDermott/Mirotic.  I'll take Noel and Payton to split ROY.

While those other guys are toiling away trying to find themselves on teams in flux, Noel and Payton have the best chance to be themselves right away.  I think they'll both be pretty good players on crappy teams.  All they have to do is play basketball and get better.

Dark horse possibilities: Bogdanovich and Nurkic will get time, opportunity and low expectations in their lineups too.  Nurkic looks like the closest thing to Marvel comics in the flesh and Bogdanovich might be the bright spot on a dreary Nets team.

Exum is a wild card.  He's got a lot of players ahead of him but he'll get his minutes.  50/50 whether he can make the most of his chances (and ditto the other 7 guys in the Jazz rotation).

Mirotic and McDermott will compete for minutes, focus, opportunities, and votes for ROY though I think they both have the potential to be good at the same time.

Parker will get minutes, he'll get focus, low expectations and Greek Freak's 2nd year maturation, I think he'll be good and exciting but I think the Bucks still don't win so much so while he'll get votes and respect and perhaps lead in MPG, I don't think he ends up having the best year among the rookies.

Wiggins, Smart, Gordon, will get plenty of time and opportunity but each team is a work in progress and so are they. Their upside is high but they could easily get vanished in the shuffle of a lot of players looking for playing time.  I think they each have good years, promising years and potentially great years I suppose, but I don't think they'll be best among rookies.

Of the rest the two that intrigue me most are Cleanthony Early and Nick Johnson.  As a college basketball fan I thought Early was pretty special, the dude just knew what to do with the ball, I think that skill translates to the big leagues.  Johnson could fill the void of Jeremy Lin (a player I think the Rockets will miss more than they realize), a decent spunky PG off the bench that the crowd loves.

The rest are just questions: Will Hood blend in with the rest of the Jazz youth movement?  How will Stauskas work with McLemore?  We gonna see Embiid this year?  Will Napier get enough minutes to be relevant in Miami?  Along with Wiggins, where does Lavine fit in in Minnesota?  Tyler Ennis looks good but how much of him will we get to see this year?  How much run are Vonleah and Hairston gonna get in Charlotte?  With OKC's sudden shocking lack of depth, gotta figure McGary's gonna play, right?

Kostas Papanicklaou, KJ McDaniels, Jordan Clarkson, Cory Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Bairstow, TJ Warren, Adrein Payne, James Young, Gary Harris, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O'Bryant, Jerami Grant all seem like regular rotation guys, some of them will get to play this year, not sure which ones yet.


(* 24 actually.  I removed Julius Randle from ROY talk after he broke his leg in his 1st game.  Damn shame, he had his rook year laid on a platter: plenty of opportunities, plenty of 4th quarter mop up time in front of the diehards at Staples, plenty of highlights, no pressure to be awesome, probably only a so-so year but one with promise, damn shame--he doesn't even get to come back next year for ROY like Nerlens, Blake Griffin, David Robinson!; fuckin' sucks really)