NBA: Coach of the Year

I want to start by figuring which coaches are on the hot seat.  A quick examination of all 30 coaches.

1st year coaches: Derek Fisher (Knicks), Stan Van Gundy (Pistons), David Blatt (Cavs), Lionel Hollins (Nets), Jason Kidd (Bucks), Flip Saunders (Wolves), Byron Scott (Lakers), Steve Kerr (Warriors), Quin Snyder (Jazz)

This crop is not likely to get fired but there are varying degrees of untouchability here.  Pistons, Cavs, Wolves, Warriors are absolutely set, I don't see any of these guys getting put out this year for just about any reason.  Knicks, Jazz have found their guys for now and I don't see those coaches getting overly shamed/blamed for on-court troubles.  Nets, Lakers have found their caretaker coaches for now but if a big name comes available, these teams could be wheeling and dealing by next summer.

Only Jason Kidd stands out as a wild card: Bucks have seemingly invested a lot in a coach that hasn't shown that a) he can play well with others or b) he can coach.  Kidd is such a loose cannon and this team is such a wild wreck of a squad than I can see Kidd getting run out of town on a whim...or he could be great and win Coach of the Year, I suppose that's possible too.

2nd year coaches: Brad Stevens (Celtics), Mike Budenholzer (Hawks), Steve Clifford (Hornets), Brett Brown (Sixers), Brian Shaw (Nuggets), Jeff Hornacek (Suns), Dave Joerger (Grizzlies), Doc Rivers (Clippers), Mike Malone (Kings)

I think these teams are satisfied with their coaches right now, with one possible exception: Mike Malone (Kings).  Honestly I had to look up who the Kings' coach was because I had no idea.  I still have no idea.  The Kings are gonna be awful this year, the coach will likely be judged on the development of the youth but that will be hard to measure because outside of Cousins, this team is a dumpster fire.  Does Malone survive?  Does Malone even want to survive?  I don't know.

Another one that could have hot-seat-ed-ness this year is Brian Shaw (Nuggets).  I think the Nuggets will be their usual mediocre selves this year, better than last year but not in the playoffs.  Shaw's fault?  Not at all, but they might think they can do better unless they see certain improvements.  I don't know what would make them think Shaw is doing a good job, so I don't know how they grade his viability as a future coach.

3rd year coaches: Jacques Vaughn (Magic), Terry Stotts (Blazers), Randy Wittman (Wizards)

Vaughn is a popular choice for first fired and I think I concur.  The Magic have an interesting collection of talent and should be an exciting team to watch.  Probably not enough to make the playoffs but the kind of team that needs to see improvement if the coach will survive...or maybe it doesn't even matter.  The Magic will likely be looking to upgrade at the coaching position by next summer and they could be the popular spot for up-and-comers looking to make a splash (does Billy Donovan still fit that description?).

I think the Wizards will be good and Wittman will have a solid season, making his extension in the off-season look like a smart move (though no one thought so at the time).

The Blazers are set to decline in the West.  Does Stotts take the blame?  Can Stotts be the difference in keeping them for dipping?  Not sure the answer to either of those questions.  If they start badly he could be out of there in a hurry; since I don't see them making the playoffs, I think he could be out by next summer.

4th year coaches: Kevin McHale (Rockets), Dwayne Casey (Raptors), Frank Vogel (Pacers)

Vogel got his extension last month, an acknowledgement that the horrific season the Pacers are about to endure is not Vogel's fault.  Good for him, I think its a good move for the Pacers to punt this season and come back with a healthy Paul George in 2015.

I think the Raptors will have a good year, Casey will get Coach of the Year consideration.

McHale is another one of those on everyone's short list for first coach fired and again I think I agree.  He's had enough time, enough big stars, enough role players, enough roster turnover to show that he knows what he's doing and indeed I think he's shown he doesn't.  Unless the Rockets go deep in the playoffs (possible), I think McHale is out by the start of next season--and sooner if things go horribly wrong during the regular season.

5th year coaches: Tom Thibodeau (Bulls), Monte Williams (Pelicans)

Thibs is untouchable.  And if he does get fired, he'll have another job by the end of the day.

Williams is another hot seat favorite but I do not agree: if Williams can get the Pelicans into the playoffs (I doubt it), then Williams gets an extension; if not, I think he does not shoulder the blame for the disastrous Eric Gordon signing and gets an extension anyway.  Far from being on the hot seat, I think he's cementing his place in New Orleans.

Veteran coaches: Scott Brooks (Thunder), Eric Spoelstra (Heat), Rick Carlisle (Mavs), Greg Popovich (Spurs)

Pop, Spo and Carlisle are safe for the foreseeable future. I think they'll all have good years, get Coach of the Year consideration.

Brooks, on the other hand, will be fighting for respect all year long.  I think the Thunder will be way down from the last coupla years and it'll lead to one of two scenarios: either Brooks gets blamed for everything and unceremoniously dumped or management doubles down on Brooks and he gets a big raise.  Honestly I go 50/50 on either scenario but I'm increasingly certain one of those will come to pass.

So who wins Coach of the Year? I'll take Doc Rivers.  I think Clippers dominate the regular season, highlights, victories, much love and praise.  I think Dwayne Casey comes in second.  Spoelstra, Wittman, Thibodeau get votes from the East; Carlisle, Popovich, Kerr and Hornacek get votes in the West.

And who gets fired?  I say Vaughn, McHale, Stotts and Malone all gone by the end of the year.  Brooks could go either way no matter what happens.